公司價值評估和基于價值的管理

1、公司價值評估和基于價值的管理公司價值評估和基于價值的管理 Corporate Valuation 公司價值評估 Value-Based Management 基于價值的管理 Corporate Governance公司治理Corporate Valuation: List the two types of assets that a company owns.公司價值評估：公司價值評估：列出公司擁有的兩種資產列出公司擁有的兩種資產 Operating assets and nonoperating, assets經營性資產與非經營性資產 Financial, or nonoperating,

2、assets 金融性資產，或非營業(yè)資產 Assets-in-place在用資產Assets-in-Place在用資產在用資產 Assets-in-place are tangible, such as buildings, machines, inventory.在用資產是指有形資產，例如建筑物、機器設備、存貨。 Usually they are expected to grow.通常，在用資產會逐漸增加。 They generate free cash flows.他們會產生自由現金流量。 The PV of their expected future free cash flows, di

3、scounted at the WACC, is the value of operations.在用資產產生的預期自由現金流量，以加權平均資金成本為折現系數進行折現后的現值稱為營業(yè)價值。Value of Operations營業(yè)價值營業(yè)價值1)1 (tttOpWACCFCFV注：Vop為營業(yè)價值 FCF為自由現金流量 WACC為加權平均資金成本Nonoperating Assets非營業(yè)資產非營業(yè)資產 Marketable securities有價證券 Ownership of non-controlling interest in another company擁有另外一家公司的非控制性股

4、權 Value of nonoperating assets usually is very close to figure that is reported on balance sheets.非營業(yè)資產的價值通常與資產負債表上顯示的數據非常接近Total Corporate Value企業(yè)的總價值企業(yè)的總價值 Total corporate value is sum of:企業(yè)的總價值包括： Value of operations營業(yè)資產的價值 Value of nonoperating assets非營業(yè)資產的價值Claims on Corporate Value對企業(yè)價值的要求權對企業(yè)

5、價值的要求權 Debtholders have first claim.債權人擁有第一位的要求權 Preferred stockholders have the next claim.優(yōu)先股股東擁有第二位的要求權 Any remaining value belongs to stockholders.剩余部分價值屬于普通股股東Applying the Corporate Valuation Model企業(yè)價值評估模型的應用企業(yè)價值評估模型的應用 Forecast the financial statements, as shown in Chapter 4.預測財務報表，詳細內容見第四章 Ca

6、lculate the projected free cash flows.計算預計的自由現金流量 Model can be applied to a company that does not pay dividends, a privately held company, or a division of a company, since FCF can be calculated for each of these situations.由于無論是不發(fā)放股利的企業(yè)、私人企業(yè)還是公司內部的部門都可以計算自由現金流量，所以該模型同樣適用于這些情況。Data for Valuation 評估數

7、據評估數據 FCF0 （上年自由現金流量）= $20 million(百萬) WACC （加權平均資金成本）= 10% g （年股利增長率）= 5% Marketable securities （有價證券）= $100 million(百萬) Debt （負債）= $200 million(百萬) Preferred stock（優(yōu)先股） = $50 million(百萬) Book value of equity （權益帳面價值）= $210 million(百萬)Value of Operations: Constant Growth營業(yè)資產價值：固定增長營業(yè)資產價值：固定增長Suppos

8、e FCF grows at constant rate g.假定自由現金流量以固定的比率 g 增長。1ttt01tttOpWACC1)g1 (FCFWACC1FCFVConstant Growth Formula固定增長公式固定增長公式 Notice that the term in parentheses is less than one and gets smaller as t gets larger. As t gets very large, term approaches zero.注意：括弧內的數值小于1，隨著t值不斷變大，該數值越來越小。當t值無限大時，該數值趨近于0。1tt

9、0OpWACC1g1FCFVConstant Growth Formula (Cont.)固定增長公式（續(xù)）固定增長公式（續(xù)） The summation can be replaced by a single formula:上述累加公式可以用下面的簡單公式代替：gWACC)g1 (FCFgWACCFCFV01OpFind Value of Operations計算營業(yè)資產價值計算營業(yè)資產價值42005. 010. 0)05. 01 (20VgWACC)g1 (FCFVOp0OpValue of Equity權益價值權益價值 Sources of Corporate Value公司價值的來源

10、 Value of operations = $420營業(yè)資產價值= $420 Value of non-operating assets = $100非營業(yè)資產價值= $100 Claims on Corporate Value對企業(yè)價值的要求權 Value of Debt = $200負債價值= $200 Value of Preferred Stock = $50優(yōu)先股價值= $50 Value of Equity = ?權益價值=？Value of Equity股東權益價值股東權益價值Total corporate value = VOp + Mkt. Sec.企業(yè)總價值=營業(yè)資產價值

11、（Vop）+ 有價證券= $420 + $100= $520 million(百萬)Value of equity = Total - Debt - Pref. 股東權益價值=企業(yè)總價值 - 負債價值 - 優(yōu)先股價值 = $520 - $200 - $50 = $270 million(百萬)Market Value Added (MVA)市場增加值（市場增加值（MVA） MVA = Total corporate value of firm minus total book value of firm市場增加值=公司的總價值減去公司的全部帳面價值 Total book value of fi

12、rm = book value of equity + book value of debt + book value of preferred stock公司的全部帳面價值=權益的帳面價值+負債的帳面價值+優(yōu)先股的帳面價值 MVA（市場增加值）= $520 - ($210 + $200 + $50) = $60 million(百萬)Breakdown of Corporate Value企業(yè)價值分類企業(yè)價值分類0100200300400500600Sources ofValue 價值來源價值來源Claims on Value價值的要求權價值的要求權Market vs. Book市場價值與帳

13、面市場價值與帳面價值價值MVABook equity 權益帳權益帳面價值面價值Equity (Market) 權權益市場價值益市場價值Prefered stock 優(yōu)先優(yōu)先股股Debt 負債負債marketable security有價證券有價證券Value of operationsExpansion Plan: Nonconstant Growth擴張計劃：非固定增長擴張計劃：非固定增長 Finance expansion by borrowing $40 million(百萬) and halting dividends.通過借入資金 $40 million(百萬)以及停止支付股利實現財

14、務擴張 Projected free cash flows (FCF):預計的自由現金流量（ FCF ） Year 1 FCF = -$5 million(百萬).第一年的自由現金流量（ FCF ）= -$5 million(百萬) Year 2 FCF = $10 million(百萬).第二年的自由現金流量（ FCF ）= $10 million(百萬) Year 3 FCF = $20 million(百萬)第三年的自由現金流量（ FCF ）= $20 million(百萬) FCF grows at constant rate of 6% after year 3.第三年后，自由現金流

15、量（ FCF ）以固定的比率6%增長(More)（更多內容） The weighted average cost of capital, kc, is 10%.加權平均資金成本kc為10% The company has 10 million(百萬) shares of stock.公司有一千萬股股份Horizon Value水平價值水平價值 Free cash flows are forecast for three years in this example, so the forecast horizon is three years.在本例中，預測了三年的自由現金流量，所以預測時間段為

16、3年 Growth in free cash flows is not constant during the forecast,so we cant use the constant growth formula to find the value of operations at time 0. 在3年的預測期中，自由現金流量的增長不固定，所以我們無法使用固定增長公式來計算時點0時的營業(yè)資產價值。Horizon Value (Cont.)水平價值（續(xù)）水平價值（續(xù)） Growth is constant after the horizon (3 years), so we can modi

17、fy the constant growth formula to find the value of all free cash flows beyond the horizon, discounted back to the horizon. 在預測范圍（3年）以后，增長率為固定值，所以我們可以對固定增長公式進行調整以計算預測時間段以外的所有自由現金流量價值，并折現到預測時間段以內。Horizon Value Formula水平價值公式水平價值公式 Horizon value is also called terminal value, or continuing value.水平價值也稱

18、為終點價值（終值），或持續(xù)經營價值。gWACCgFCFVHVtttimeatOpt)1 ()()(的營業(yè)資產價值時點水平價值Vop at 3Find the value of operations by discounting the free cash flows at the cost of capital.以資金成本為折現率將自由現金流量折現來計算營業(yè)資產價值0 -4.5458.26415.026398.1971234kc=10%416.942 = Vopg = 6%FCF= -5.0010.00 20.00 21.2$21.2. $530.100 060Find the price p

19、er share of common stock.計算普通股每股價格計算普通股每股價格Value of equity （權益價值）=Value of operations（營業(yè)資產價值） - Value of debt（負債價值） = $416.94 - $40 = $376.94 million(百萬).Price per share （每股價格）= $376.94 /10 = $37.69.Value-Based Management (VBM)基于價值的管理（基于價值的管理（VBM） VBM is the systematic application of the corporate v

20、aluation model to all corporate decisions and strategic initiatives.VBM是企業(yè)價值評估模型在所有企業(yè)決策和戰(zhàn)略行動中的系統性應用 The objective of VBM is to increase Market Value Added (MVA)VBM的目標是增加市場增加值（MVA）MVA and the Four Value Drivers MVA以及四種價值驅動因素以及四種價值驅動因素 MVA is determined by four drivers:MVA主要由四種因素決定： Sales growth銷售增長率

21、Operating profitability (OP=NOPAT/Sales)營業(yè)獲利能力（=稅后凈營業(yè)利潤 /銷售收入） Capital requirements (CR=Operating capital / Sales)資金需要量（資金需要量=營業(yè)資本/銷售收入） Weighted average cost of capital加權平均資金成本MVA for a Constant Growth Firm固定增長公司的市場增加值（固定增長公司的市場增加值（MVA）)1 ()1 (gCRWACCOPgWACCgSalesMVAttInsights from the Constant Gro

22、wth Model對固定增長模型的理解對固定增長模型的理解 The first bracket is the MVA of a firm that gets to keep all of its sales revenues (i.e., its operating profit margin is 100%) and that never has to make additional investments in operating capital.第一個括弧指的是一個公司用于獲得所有銷售收益的市場增加值（MVA），（也就是，其營業(yè)利潤率為100%），并且不需要投入額外的營業(yè)資本。 gWAC

23、C)g1(SalestInsights (Cont.)理解（續(xù)）理解（續(xù)） The second bracket is the operating profit (as a %) the firm gets to keep, less the return that investors require for having tied up their capital in the firm.第二個括弧指的是公司應得到的營業(yè)利潤（以百分數表示）減去投資人要求的投資收益。 )g1(CRWACCOPImprovements in MVA due to the Value Drivers由于價值驅動因

24、素而使市場增加價值得到的改善由于價值驅動因素而使市場增加價值得到的改善 MVA will improve if:如果發(fā)生以下情況， MVA將得到改善 WACC is reduced加權平均資金成本降低 operating profitability (OP) increases營業(yè)獲利能力提高 the capital requirement (CR) decreases資金需要量減少The Impact of Growth銷售增長的影響銷售增長的影響 The second term in brackets can be either positive or negative, dependin

25、g on the relative size of profitability, capital requirements, and required return by investors.括弧中第二個值既可能是正值，也可能是負值，這取決于營業(yè)獲利能力、資金需要量和投資人要求的收益的相對大小。 )g1(CRWACCOPThe Impact of Growth (Cont.)銷售增長的影響（續(xù)）銷售增長的影響（續(xù)） If the second term in brackets is negative, then growth decreases MVA. In other words, pro

26、fits are not enough to offset the return on capital required by investors.如果括弧中第二個值是負值，那么銷售增長將會降低市場增加價值（MVA）。也就是說，利潤不足以補償投資人要求的投資收益。 If the second term in brackets is positive, then growth increases MVA.如果括弧中第二個值是正值，那么銷售增長將提高市場增加價值（MVA）。Expected Return on Invested Capital (EROIC)投入資金的期望收益投入資金的期望收益 T

27、he expected return on invested capital is the NOPAT expected next period divided by the amount of capital that is currently invested:投入資金的期望收益是指下一時期的期望稅后凈營業(yè)利潤（NOPAT）除以本期投入資金的數量所得到的值。t1ttCapitalNOPATEROICMVA in Terms of Expected ROIC用投入資金期望收益表達的市場增加價值（用投入資金期望收益表達的市場增加價值（MVA）gWACCWACCEROICCapitalMVAtt

28、tIf the spread between the expected return, EROICt, and the required return, WACC, is positive, then MVA is positive and growth makes MVA larger. The opposite is true if the spread is negative.如果投入資金的期望收益與加權平均資金成本之間的差額為正，那么市場增加價值（MVA）也為正，銷售增長就會提高市場增加價值（MVA）。如果差額為負，就會出現相反的結果。The Impact of Growth on M

29、VA銷售增長對銷售增長對MVA的影響的影響 A company has two divisions. Both have current sales of $1,000, current expected growth of 5%, and a WACC of 10%.某公司有兩個部門，當期銷售收入都是$1,000，當期預計增長率為5%，加權平均資金成本為10%。 Division A has high profitability (OP=6%) but high capital requirements (CR=78%).A部門具有較高的獲利能力（ 營業(yè)獲利能力OP=6% ），但占用資金也較

30、多（資金需要量CR比重= 78% ） Division B has low profitability (OP=4%) but low capital requirements (CR=27%).B部門的獲利能力較低（ 營業(yè)獲利能力OP=4% ），但占用資金也較少（資金需要量CR比重= 27% ）What is the impact on MVA if growth goes from 5% to 6%? 如果銷售增長率由如果銷售增長率由5%變?yōu)樽優(yōu)?%，會對市場增加值，會對市場增加值MVA產生什么影產生什么影響？響？ Division A （A部門） Division B（B部門）OP 營業(yè)

31、獲利能力 6% 6% 4% 4%CR 資金需要量78%78%27%27%Growth 增長率5%6%5%6%MVA 市場增加值(300.0)(360.0)300.0 385.0Note: MVA is calculated using the formula on slide 12-27.注： 市場增加值MVA的計算采用幻燈片12-27上的公式。 Expected ROIC and MVA 預計的投資收益和市場增加值預計的投資收益和市場增加值 Division A（A部門） Division B（B部門）Capital0 資金0$780$780$270$270Growth 增長率5%6%5%6

32、%Sales1 銷售收入1$1,050$1,060 $1,050$1,060NOPAT1稅后凈營業(yè)利潤1$63$63.6$42$42.4EROIC0預計的投資收益08.1%8.2%15.6%15.7%MVA市場附加值 (300.0)(360.0)300.0 385.0Analysis of Growth Strategies銷售增長戰(zhàn)略的分析銷售增長戰(zhàn)略的分析 The expected ROIC of Division A is less than the WACC, so the division should postpone growth efforts until it improve

33、s EROIC by reducing capital requirements (e.g., reducing inventory) and/or improving profitability.A部門的預計投資收益要低于加權平均資金成本，所以該部門應推遲采取銷售增長策略，等到其通過減少資金占用（例如減少存貨）而改善預計投資收益，以及/或改善獲利能力以后再采取相應行動。 The expected ROIC of Division B is greater than the WACC, so the division should continue with its growth plans.

34、B部門的預計投資收益要高于加權平均資金成本，所以該部門應續(xù)執(zhí)行銷售增長計劃。Two Primary Mechanisms of Corporate Governance公司治理的兩個基本機制公司治理的兩個基本機制 “Stick”“大棒” Provisions in the charter that affect takeovers.公司章程中影響接管的條款 Composition of the board of directors.董事會的構成 “Carrot: Compensation plans.“胡蘿卜”：補償計劃Entrenched Management僵化管理僵化管理 Occurs

35、when there is little chance that poorly performing managers will be replaced.如果業(yè)績不好的經理被替換的可能性很小，那么就會出現僵化管理。 Two causes:兩個原因： Anti-takeover provisions in the charter公司章程中的反接管條款 Weak board of directors董事會軟弱How are entrenched managers harmful to shareholders?難以觸動的經理人員如何損害股東的利益？難以觸動的經理人員如何損害股東的利益？ Manag

36、ement consumes perks:管理層享受額外待遇： Lavish offices and corporate jets豪華的辦公室和企業(yè)公務飛機 Excessively large staffs龐大、臃腫的員工隊伍 Memberships at country clubs鄉(xiāng)村俱樂部的成員資格 Management accepts projects (or acquisitions) to make firm larger, even if MVA goes down.管理層接受某些項目（或收購某些項目），使得公司規(guī)模越來越大，即使市場增加價值MVA越來越低。Anti-Takeove

37、r Provisions反接管條款反接管條款 Targeted share repurchases (i.e., greenmail)有目的的回購股票（例如綠色郵件） Shareholder rights provisions (i.e., poison pills)股東權利條款（例如毒丸術） Restricted voting rights plans限制投票權計劃Board of Directors董事會董事會 Weak boards have many insiders (i.e., those who also have another position in the company)

38、 compared with outsiders.在軟弱的董事會中，企業(yè)內部人員（也就是同時在公司中擁有其他職務的那些人）的數量與企業(yè)外部人員的數量相比太多。 Interlocking boards are weaker (CEO of company A sits on board of company B, CEO of B sits on board of A).內部鎖定董事（A公司的首席執(zhí)行官同時任B公司的董事，而B公司的首席執(zhí)行官也兼任A公司的董事）過多的董事會比較軟弱。Stock Options in Compensation Plans補償計劃中的股票期權補償計劃中的股票期權 G

39、ives owner of option the right to buy a share of the companys stock at a specified price (called the exercise price) even if the actual stock price is higher.給予期權擁有者以一定的價格（執(zhí)行價格）購買該公司股票的權利，即使該股票的實際市場價格高于執(zhí)行價格。 Usually cant exercise the option for several years (called the vesting period).期權擁有者通常在幾年內（稱

40、為授予期或等待期）不能行使該權利。Stock Options (Cont.)股票期權（續(xù)）股票期權（續(xù)） Cant exercise the option after a certain number of years (called the expiration, or maturity, date).在約定時間（稱為有效期或到期日）后不能行使該權利。Corporate Valuation: List the two types of assets that a company owns.公司價值評估：公司價值評估：列出公司擁有的兩種資產列出公司擁有的兩種資產 Operating asset

41、s and nonoperating, assets經營性資產與非經營性資產 Financial, or nonoperating, assets 金融性資產，或非營業(yè)資產 Assets-in-place在用資產Corporate Valuation: List the two types of assets that a company owns.公司價值評估：公司價值評估：列出公司擁有的兩種資產列出公司擁有的兩種資產 Operating assets and nonoperating, assets經營性資產與非經營性資產 Financial, or nonoperating, assets 金融性資產，或非營業(yè)資產 Assets-in-p