公司價(jià)值評估和基于價(jià)值的管理

1、公司價(jià)值評估和基于價(jià)值的管理公司價(jià)值評估和基于價(jià)值的管理 Corporate Valuation 公司價(jià)值評估 Value-Based Management 基于價(jià)值的管理 Corporate Governance公司治理Corporate Valuation: List the two types of assets that a company owns.公司價(jià)值評估：公司價(jià)值評估：列出公司擁有的兩種資產(chǎn)列出公司擁有的兩種資產(chǎn) Operating assets and nonoperating, assets經(jīng)營性資產(chǎn)與非經(jīng)營性資產(chǎn) Financial, or nonoperating,

2、assets 金融性資產(chǎn)，或非營業(yè)資產(chǎn) Assets-in-place在用資產(chǎn)Assets-in-Place在用資產(chǎn)在用資產(chǎn) Assets-in-place are tangible, such as buildings, machines, inventory.在用資產(chǎn)是指有形資產(chǎn)，例如建筑物、機(jī)器設(shè)備、存貨。 Usually they are expected to grow.通常，在用資產(chǎn)會逐漸增加。 They generate free cash flows.他們會產(chǎn)生自由現(xiàn)金流量。 The PV of their expected future free cash flows, di

3、scounted at the WACC, is the value of operations.在用資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生的預(yù)期自由現(xiàn)金流量，以加權(quán)平均資金成本為折現(xiàn)系數(shù)進(jìn)行折現(xiàn)后的現(xiàn)值稱為營業(yè)價(jià)值。Value of Operations營業(yè)價(jià)值營業(yè)價(jià)值1)1 (tttOpWACCFCFV注：Vop為營業(yè)價(jià)值 FCF為自由現(xiàn)金流量 WACC為加權(quán)平均資金成本Nonoperating Assets非營業(yè)資產(chǎn)非營業(yè)資產(chǎn) Marketable securities有價(jià)證券 Ownership of non-controlling interest in another company擁有另外一家公司的非控制性股

4、權(quán) Value of nonoperating assets usually is very close to figure that is reported on balance sheets.非營業(yè)資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值通常與資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上顯示的數(shù)據(jù)非常接近Total Corporate Value企業(yè)的總價(jià)值企業(yè)的總價(jià)值 Total corporate value is sum of:企業(yè)的總價(jià)值包括： Value of operations營業(yè)資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值 Value of nonoperating assets非營業(yè)資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值Claims on Corporate Value對企業(yè)價(jià)值的要求權(quán)對企業(yè)

5、價(jià)值的要求權(quán) Debtholders have first claim.債權(quán)人擁有第一位的要求權(quán) Preferred stockholders have the next claim.優(yōu)先股股東擁有第二位的要求權(quán) Any remaining value belongs to stockholders.剩余部分價(jià)值屬于普通股股東Applying the Corporate Valuation Model企業(yè)價(jià)值評估模型的應(yīng)用企業(yè)價(jià)值評估模型的應(yīng)用 Forecast the financial statements, as shown in Chapter 4.預(yù)測財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表，詳細(xì)內(nèi)容見第四章 Ca

6、lculate the projected free cash flows.計(jì)算預(yù)計(jì)的自由現(xiàn)金流量 Model can be applied to a company that does not pay dividends, a privately held company, or a division of a company, since FCF can be calculated for each of these situations.由于無論是不發(fā)放股利的企業(yè)、私人企業(yè)還是公司內(nèi)部的部門都可以計(jì)算自由現(xiàn)金流量，所以該模型同樣適用于這些情況。Data for Valuation 評估數(shù)

7、據(jù)評估數(shù)據(jù) FCF0 （上年自由現(xiàn)金流量）= $20 million(百萬) WACC （加權(quán)平均資金成本）= 10% g （年股利增長率）= 5% Marketable securities （有價(jià)證券）= $100 million(百萬) Debt （負(fù)債）= $200 million(百萬) Preferred stock（優(yōu)先股） = $50 million(百萬) Book value of equity （權(quán)益帳面價(jià)值）= $210 million(百萬)Value of Operations: Constant Growth營業(yè)資產(chǎn)價(jià)值：固定增長營業(yè)資產(chǎn)價(jià)值：固定增長Suppos

8、e FCF grows at constant rate g.假定自由現(xiàn)金流量以固定的比率 g 增長。1ttt01tttOpWACC1)g1 (FCFWACC1FCFVConstant Growth Formula固定增長公式固定增長公式 Notice that the term in parentheses is less than one and gets smaller as t gets larger. As t gets very large, term approaches zero.注意：括弧內(nèi)的數(shù)值小于1，隨著t值不斷變大，該數(shù)值越來越小。當(dāng)t值無限大時(shí)，該數(shù)值趨近于0。1tt

9、0OpWACC1g1FCFVConstant Growth Formula (Cont.)固定增長公式（續(xù)）固定增長公式（續(xù)） The summation can be replaced by a single formula:上述累加公式可以用下面的簡單公式代替：gWACC)g1 (FCFgWACCFCFV01OpFind Value of Operations計(jì)算營業(yè)資產(chǎn)價(jià)值計(jì)算營業(yè)資產(chǎn)價(jià)值42005. 010. 0)05. 01 (20VgWACC)g1 (FCFVOp0OpValue of Equity權(quán)益價(jià)值權(quán)益價(jià)值 Sources of Corporate Value公司價(jià)值的來源

10、 Value of operations = $420營業(yè)資產(chǎn)價(jià)值= $420 Value of non-operating assets = $100非營業(yè)資產(chǎn)價(jià)值= $100 Claims on Corporate Value對企業(yè)價(jià)值的要求權(quán) Value of Debt = $200負(fù)債價(jià)值= $200 Value of Preferred Stock = $50優(yōu)先股價(jià)值= $50 Value of Equity = ?權(quán)益價(jià)值=？Value of Equity股東權(quán)益價(jià)值股東權(quán)益價(jià)值Total corporate value = VOp + Mkt. Sec.企業(yè)總價(jià)值=營業(yè)資產(chǎn)價(jià)值

11、（Vop）+ 有價(jià)證券= $420 + $100= $520 million(百萬)Value of equity = Total - Debt - Pref. 股東權(quán)益價(jià)值=企業(yè)總價(jià)值 - 負(fù)債價(jià)值 - 優(yōu)先股價(jià)值 = $520 - $200 - $50 = $270 million(百萬)Market Value Added (MVA)市場增加值（市場增加值（MVA） MVA = Total corporate value of firm minus total book value of firm市場增加值=公司的總價(jià)值減去公司的全部帳面價(jià)值 Total book value of fi

12、rm = book value of equity + book value of debt + book value of preferred stock公司的全部帳面價(jià)值=權(quán)益的帳面價(jià)值+負(fù)債的帳面價(jià)值+優(yōu)先股的帳面價(jià)值 MVA（市場增加值）= $520 - ($210 + $200 + $50) = $60 million(百萬)Breakdown of Corporate Value企業(yè)價(jià)值分類企業(yè)價(jià)值分類0100200300400500600Sources ofValue 價(jià)值來源價(jià)值來源Claims on Value價(jià)值的要求權(quán)價(jià)值的要求權(quán)Market vs. Book市場價(jià)值與帳

13、面市場價(jià)值與帳面價(jià)值價(jià)值MVABook equity 權(quán)益帳權(quán)益帳面價(jià)值面價(jià)值Equity (Market) 權(quán)權(quán)益市場價(jià)值益市場價(jià)值Prefered stock 優(yōu)先優(yōu)先股股Debt 負(fù)債負(fù)債marketable security有價(jià)證券有價(jià)證券Value of operationsExpansion Plan: Nonconstant Growth擴(kuò)張計(jì)劃：非固定增長擴(kuò)張計(jì)劃：非固定增長 Finance expansion by borrowing $40 million(百萬) and halting dividends.通過借入資金 $40 million(百萬)以及停止支付股利實(shí)現(xiàn)財(cái)

14、務(wù)擴(kuò)張 Projected free cash flows (FCF):預(yù)計(jì)的自由現(xiàn)金流量（ FCF ） Year 1 FCF = -$5 million(百萬).第一年的自由現(xiàn)金流量（ FCF ）= -$5 million(百萬) Year 2 FCF = $10 million(百萬).第二年的自由現(xiàn)金流量（ FCF ）= $10 million(百萬) Year 3 FCF = $20 million(百萬)第三年的自由現(xiàn)金流量（ FCF ）= $20 million(百萬) FCF grows at constant rate of 6% after year 3.第三年后，自由現(xiàn)金流

15、量（ FCF ）以固定的比率6%增長(More)（更多內(nèi)容） The weighted average cost of capital, kc, is 10%.加權(quán)平均資金成本kc為10% The company has 10 million(百萬) shares of stock.公司有一千萬股股份Horizon Value水平價(jià)值水平價(jià)值 Free cash flows are forecast for three years in this example, so the forecast horizon is three years.在本例中，預(yù)測了三年的自由現(xiàn)金流量，所以預(yù)測時(shí)間段為

16、3年 Growth in free cash flows is not constant during the forecast,so we cant use the constant growth formula to find the value of operations at time 0. 在3年的預(yù)測期中，自由現(xiàn)金流量的增長不固定，所以我們無法使用固定增長公式來計(jì)算時(shí)點(diǎn)0時(shí)的營業(yè)資產(chǎn)價(jià)值。Horizon Value (Cont.)水平價(jià)值（續(xù)）水平價(jià)值（續(xù)） Growth is constant after the horizon (3 years), so we can modi

17、fy the constant growth formula to find the value of all free cash flows beyond the horizon, discounted back to the horizon. 在預(yù)測范圍（3年）以后，增長率為固定值，所以我們可以對固定增長公式進(jìn)行調(diào)整以計(jì)算預(yù)測時(shí)間段以外的所有自由現(xiàn)金流量價(jià)值，并折現(xiàn)到預(yù)測時(shí)間段以內(nèi)。Horizon Value Formula水平價(jià)值公式水平價(jià)值公式 Horizon value is also called terminal value, or continuing value.水平價(jià)值也稱

18、為終點(diǎn)價(jià)值（終值），或持續(xù)經(jīng)營價(jià)值。gWACCgFCFVHVtttimeatOpt)1 ()()(的營業(yè)資產(chǎn)價(jià)值時(shí)點(diǎn)水平價(jià)值Vop at 3Find the value of operations by discounting the free cash flows at the cost of capital.以資金成本為折現(xiàn)率將自由現(xiàn)金流量折現(xiàn)來計(jì)算營業(yè)資產(chǎn)價(jià)值0 -4.5458.26415.026398.1971234kc=10%416.942 = Vopg = 6%FCF= -5.0010.00 20.00 21.2$21.2. $530.100 060Find the price p

19、er share of common stock.計(jì)算普通股每股價(jià)格計(jì)算普通股每股價(jià)格Value of equity （權(quán)益價(jià)值）=Value of operations（營業(yè)資產(chǎn)價(jià)值） - Value of debt（負(fù)債價(jià)值） = $416.94 - $40 = $376.94 million(百萬).Price per share （每股價(jià)格）= $376.94 /10 = $37.69.Value-Based Management (VBM)基于價(jià)值的管理（基于價(jià)值的管理（VBM） VBM is the systematic application of the corporate v

20、aluation model to all corporate decisions and strategic initiatives.VBM是企業(yè)價(jià)值評估模型在所有企業(yè)決策和戰(zhàn)略行動(dòng)中的系統(tǒng)性應(yīng)用 The objective of VBM is to increase Market Value Added (MVA)VBM的目標(biāo)是增加市場增加值（MVA）MVA and the Four Value Drivers MVA以及四種價(jià)值驅(qū)動(dòng)因素以及四種價(jià)值驅(qū)動(dòng)因素 MVA is determined by four drivers:MVA主要由四種因素決定： Sales growth銷售增長率

21、Operating profitability (OP=NOPAT/Sales)營業(yè)獲利能力（=稅后凈營業(yè)利潤 /銷售收入） Capital requirements (CR=Operating capital / Sales)資金需要量（資金需要量=營業(yè)資本/銷售收入） Weighted average cost of capital加權(quán)平均資金成本MVA for a Constant Growth Firm固定增長公司的市場增加值（固定增長公司的市場增加值（MVA）)1 ()1 (gCRWACCOPgWACCgSalesMVAttInsights from the Constant Gro

22、wth Model對固定增長模型的理解對固定增長模型的理解 The first bracket is the MVA of a firm that gets to keep all of its sales revenues (i.e., its operating profit margin is 100%) and that never has to make additional investments in operating capital.第一個(gè)括弧指的是一個(gè)公司用于獲得所有銷售收益的市場增加值（MVA），（也就是，其營業(yè)利潤率為100%），并且不需要投入額外的營業(yè)資本。 gWAC

23、C)g1(SalestInsights (Cont.)理解（續(xù)）理解（續(xù)） The second bracket is the operating profit (as a %) the firm gets to keep, less the return that investors require for having tied up their capital in the firm.第二個(gè)括弧指的是公司應(yīng)得到的營業(yè)利潤（以百分?jǐn)?shù)表示）減去投資人要求的投資收益。 )g1(CRWACCOPImprovements in MVA due to the Value Drivers由于價(jià)值驅(qū)動(dòng)因

24、素而使市場增加價(jià)值得到的改善由于價(jià)值驅(qū)動(dòng)因素而使市場增加價(jià)值得到的改善 MVA will improve if:如果發(fā)生以下情況， MVA將得到改善 WACC is reduced加權(quán)平均資金成本降低 operating profitability (OP) increases營業(yè)獲利能力提高 the capital requirement (CR) decreases資金需要量減少The Impact of Growth銷售增長的影響銷售增長的影響 The second term in brackets can be either positive or negative, dependin

25、g on the relative size of profitability, capital requirements, and required return by investors.括弧中第二個(gè)值既可能是正值，也可能是負(fù)值，這取決于營業(yè)獲利能力、資金需要量和投資人要求的收益的相對大小。 )g1(CRWACCOPThe Impact of Growth (Cont.)銷售增長的影響（續(xù)）銷售增長的影響（續(xù)） If the second term in brackets is negative, then growth decreases MVA. In other words, pro

26、fits are not enough to offset the return on capital required by investors.如果括弧中第二個(gè)值是負(fù)值，那么銷售增長將會降低市場增加價(jià)值（MVA）。也就是說，利潤不足以補(bǔ)償投資人要求的投資收益。 If the second term in brackets is positive, then growth increases MVA.如果括弧中第二個(gè)值是正值，那么銷售增長將提高市場增加價(jià)值（MVA）。Expected Return on Invested Capital (EROIC)投入資金的期望收益投入資金的期望收益 T

27、he expected return on invested capital is the NOPAT expected next period divided by the amount of capital that is currently invested:投入資金的期望收益是指下一時(shí)期的期望稅后凈營業(yè)利潤（NOPAT）除以本期投入資金的數(shù)量所得到的值。t1ttCapitalNOPATEROICMVA in Terms of Expected ROIC用投入資金期望收益表達(dá)的市場增加價(jià)值（用投入資金期望收益表達(dá)的市場增加價(jià)值（MVA）gWACCWACCEROICCapitalMVAtt

28、tIf the spread between the expected return, EROICt, and the required return, WACC, is positive, then MVA is positive and growth makes MVA larger. The opposite is true if the spread is negative.如果投入資金的期望收益與加權(quán)平均資金成本之間的差額為正，那么市場增加價(jià)值（MVA）也為正，銷售增長就會提高市場增加價(jià)值（MVA）。如果差額為負(fù)，就會出現(xiàn)相反的結(jié)果。The Impact of Growth on M

29、VA銷售增長對銷售增長對MVA的影響的影響 A company has two divisions. Both have current sales of $1,000, current expected growth of 5%, and a WACC of 10%.某公司有兩個(gè)部門，當(dāng)期銷售收入都是$1,000，當(dāng)期預(yù)計(jì)增長率為5%，加權(quán)平均資金成本為10%。 Division A has high profitability (OP=6%) but high capital requirements (CR=78%).A部門具有較高的獲利能力（ 營業(yè)獲利能力OP=6% ），但占用資金也較

30、多（資金需要量CR比重= 78% ） Division B has low profitability (OP=4%) but low capital requirements (CR=27%).B部門的獲利能力較低（ 營業(yè)獲利能力OP=4% ），但占用資金也較少（資金需要量CR比重= 27% ）What is the impact on MVA if growth goes from 5% to 6%? 如果銷售增長率由如果銷售增長率由5%變?yōu)樽優(yōu)?%，會對市場增加值，會對市場增加值MVA產(chǎn)生什么影產(chǎn)生什么影響？響？ Division A （A部門） Division B（B部門）OP 營業(yè)

31、獲利能力 6% 6% 4% 4%CR 資金需要量78%78%27%27%Growth 增長率5%6%5%6%MVA 市場增加值(300.0)(360.0)300.0 385.0Note: MVA is calculated using the formula on slide 12-27.注： 市場增加值MVA的計(jì)算采用幻燈片12-27上的公式。 Expected ROIC and MVA 預(yù)計(jì)的投資收益和市場增加值預(yù)計(jì)的投資收益和市場增加值 Division A（A部門） Division B（B部門）Capital0 資金0$780$780$270$270Growth 增長率5%6%5%6

32、%Sales1 銷售收入1$1,050$1,060 $1,050$1,060NOPAT1稅后凈營業(yè)利潤1$63$63.6$42$42.4EROIC0預(yù)計(jì)的投資收益08.1%8.2%15.6%15.7%MVA市場附加值 (300.0)(360.0)300.0 385.0Analysis of Growth Strategies銷售增長戰(zhàn)略的分析銷售增長戰(zhàn)略的分析 The expected ROIC of Division A is less than the WACC, so the division should postpone growth efforts until it improve

33、s EROIC by reducing capital requirements (e.g., reducing inventory) and/or improving profitability.A部門的預(yù)計(jì)投資收益要低于加權(quán)平均資金成本，所以該部門應(yīng)推遲采取銷售增長策略，等到其通過減少資金占用（例如減少存貨）而改善預(yù)計(jì)投資收益，以及/或改善獲利能力以后再采取相應(yīng)行動(dòng)。 The expected ROIC of Division B is greater than the WACC, so the division should continue with its growth plans.

34、B部門的預(yù)計(jì)投資收益要高于加權(quán)平均資金成本，所以該部門應(yīng)續(xù)執(zhí)行銷售增長計(jì)劃。Two Primary Mechanisms of Corporate Governance公司治理的兩個(gè)基本機(jī)制公司治理的兩個(gè)基本機(jī)制 “Stick”“大棒” Provisions in the charter that affect takeovers.公司章程中影響接管的條款 Composition of the board of directors.董事會的構(gòu)成 “Carrot: Compensation plans.“胡蘿卜”：補(bǔ)償計(jì)劃Entrenched Management僵化管理僵化管理 Occurs

35、when there is little chance that poorly performing managers will be replaced.如果業(yè)績不好的經(jīng)理被替換的可能性很小，那么就會出現(xiàn)僵化管理。 Two causes:兩個(gè)原因： Anti-takeover provisions in the charter公司章程中的反接管條款 Weak board of directors董事會軟弱How are entrenched managers harmful to shareholders?難以觸動(dòng)的經(jīng)理人員如何損害股東的利益？難以觸動(dòng)的經(jīng)理人員如何損害股東的利益？ Manag

36、ement consumes perks:管理層享受額外待遇： Lavish offices and corporate jets豪華的辦公室和企業(yè)公務(wù)飛機(jī) Excessively large staffs龐大、臃腫的員工隊(duì)伍 Memberships at country clubs鄉(xiāng)村俱樂部的成員資格 Management accepts projects (or acquisitions) to make firm larger, even if MVA goes down.管理層接受某些項(xiàng)目（或收購某些項(xiàng)目），使得公司規(guī)模越來越大，即使市場增加價(jià)值MVA越來越低。Anti-Takeove

37、r Provisions反接管條款反接管條款 Targeted share repurchases (i.e., greenmail)有目的的回購股票（例如綠色郵件） Shareholder rights provisions (i.e., poison pills)股東權(quán)利條款（例如毒丸術(shù)） Restricted voting rights plans限制投票權(quán)計(jì)劃Board of Directors董事會董事會 Weak boards have many insiders (i.e., those who also have another position in the company)

38、 compared with outsiders.在軟弱的董事會中，企業(yè)內(nèi)部人員（也就是同時(shí)在公司中擁有其他職務(wù)的那些人）的數(shù)量與企業(yè)外部人員的數(shù)量相比太多。 Interlocking boards are weaker (CEO of company A sits on board of company B, CEO of B sits on board of A).內(nèi)部鎖定董事（A公司的首席執(zhí)行官同時(shí)任B公司的董事，而B公司的首席執(zhí)行官也兼任A公司的董事）過多的董事會比較軟弱。Stock Options in Compensation Plans補(bǔ)償計(jì)劃中的股票期權(quán)補(bǔ)償計(jì)劃中的股票期權(quán) G

39、ives owner of option the right to buy a share of the companys stock at a specified price (called the exercise price) even if the actual stock price is higher.給予期權(quán)擁有者以一定的價(jià)格（執(zhí)行價(jià)格）購買該公司股票的權(quán)利，即使該股票的實(shí)際市場價(jià)格高于執(zhí)行價(jià)格。 Usually cant exercise the option for several years (called the vesting period).期權(quán)擁有者通常在幾年內(nèi)（稱

40、為授予期或等待期）不能行使該權(quán)利。Stock Options (Cont.)股票期權(quán)（續(xù)）股票期權(quán)（續(xù)） Cant exercise the option after a certain number of years (called the expiration, or maturity, date).在約定時(shí)間（稱為有效期或到期日）后不能行使該權(quán)利。Corporate Valuation: List the two types of assets that a company owns.公司價(jià)值評估：公司價(jià)值評估：列出公司擁有的兩種資產(chǎn)列出公司擁有的兩種資產(chǎn) Operating asset

41、s and nonoperating, assets經(jīng)營性資產(chǎn)與非經(jīng)營性資產(chǎn) Financial, or nonoperating, assets 金融性資產(chǎn)，或非營業(yè)資產(chǎn) Assets-in-place在用資產(chǎn)Corporate Valuation: List the two types of assets that a company owns.公司價(jià)值評估：公司價(jià)值評估：列出公司擁有的兩種資產(chǎn)列出公司擁有的兩種資產(chǎn) Operating assets and nonoperating, assets經(jīng)營性資產(chǎn)與非經(jīng)營性資產(chǎn) Financial, or nonoperating, assets 金融性資產(chǎn)，或非營業(yè)資產(chǎn) Assets-in-p