凱捷咨詢解決問題的方法與假設(shè)-ppt課件

1、Structured Problem Solving & Hypothesis GenerationConsulting Skills WorkshopGoals of this module Lay out a systematic approach to solving business problems “Structured Problem Solving Establish a common “modus operandus for Consulting teams Practice the suggested process on a real-life exampleCo

2、nsulting Skills WorkshopStrategy is about thriving in a changing world“The pictures pretty bleak, gentlemen . . . The worlds climates are changing, the mammals are taking over, and we all have a brain about the size of a walnut.Consulting Skills Workshop which is all about “decision making “Strategy

3、 is about making decisions The best strategy “makers are able to blend analytic techniques with an understanding of the future uncertainties and simple good luck Based on often imperfect information they make decisions and then drive implementationConsulting Skills WorkshopThere are two basic approa

4、ches to problem solving; but both can workThe “theres a pony in here somewhere approachThe structured analytic approachPotentialfor richpowerfulsolutionsScurry around analyzing tons of data to see if you can find something usefulGet the dataPotential forgood (and mixed) solutionsDefineproblemandhypo

5、thesesConsulting Skills WorkshopDefining the issue is the first step in the journey to final recommendationsDevelop Conclusions and Make Recommendations to ImplementFind InsightsAnalyse DataGather DataForm HypothesesSo what? aha, new thoughtWhat you should do and howDefine the IssuesWhat are the que

6、stions keeping you awake at night?Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypothesesAnalyse what the data tells usStatements that provide direction and structure for the analysisConsulting Skills WorkshopHypothesis formation ensures that our analysis is focused on our clients problemForm H

7、ypothesesDefine the IssuesGather DataAnalyse DataFind InsightsDevelop Conclusions and Make Recommendations to ImplementSo what? aha, new thoughtWhat you should do and howWhat are the questions keeping you awake at night?Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypothesesAnalyse what the dat

8、a tells usStatements that provide direction and structure for the analysisConsulting Skills WorkshopHypotheses are developed in three steps What are the real strategic issues? What is the impact on the organisation? What are the priorities? We think . . . It looks like . . . The right answer may be

9、. . . The options could be . . . We believe this to be true . . . A series of statements, not yet backed by data Based on initial data search or expert opinionsA number of assertions need to be true for a hypothesis to be valid.Is there a market for white label insurance products?Direct channels are

10、 growingRetailers have a strong channel and brandThere are existing productsChubb Insurance can access new business by using the brand strength of Tesco resulting Is low cost of acquisition and profitable businessDefine the questionReview and Describe Multiple AssertionsForm the hypothesis123Consult

11、ing Skills WorkshopA hypothesis should identify not only the issue but also the cause and the impactThink through these three stages as you create a hypothesis to help you plan out how you will test it:What is the issue?What is the underlying opportunity? Where is the advantage?What do you think cau

12、ses the issue?What are the key drivers of the process?What is the impact of the issue?How can we tell there is an opportunity?Why do we care?“x is anopportunity.“due to.“resultingin.Consulting Skills WorkshopThe Structured Problem Solving Process covers the life cycle of a consulting engagement Defi

13、ne the Problem Structure the Problem Develop a Hypothesis Execute the Analysis Develop a Recommendation Create the Communication Deliver Communication Follow Up with ClientCovered in current moduleCovered later in the weekConsulting Skills WorkshopThe Basics - Problem Solving ApproachConsulting Skil

14、ls WorkshopDEFINE THE PROBLEMSTRUCTURE THE ANALYSISFIND THE SOLUTIONOur problem solving approach produces results through answering a simple series of questions Is there a problem or opportunity? If so where does it lie? Why does it exist? What could we do about it? What should we do about it?Fine,

15、but IWIK H2 do this.Consulting Skills WorkshopSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle.Always ask: “Are they Mutually Exclusive and Comprehensively Exhaustive (MECE)?Logical pyramids are basic tools for this approach, helping you to define, structure and solve the clients problem 1.Ideas at any

16、 level in the pyramid must always be summaries of the ideas grouped below them2.Ideas in each grouping must always be the same kind of idea, and they must answer the same question implied by their summary3.Ideas in each grouping must always be in a logical order:MainAssertionKey Line Deductively or

17、inductively Trace course or time order Divide or structural order (e.g., Sales, Marketing, Manufacturing, etc.) Classify or degree order (e.g., most important, 2nd most important, etc.)Consulting Skills WorkshopLogical pyramids increase the effectiveness of problem solving, results delivery and comm

18、unication Vertical structure Horizontal structure Key line / narrativebut help ensure thoroughanalysiswhile decreasingcomplexityand increasing the powerof presentations Logical pyramids have simple rules The effectiveness of our work depends heavily on how compellingly we can argue that the solution

19、 we put forward serves the client best The reasoning we have to apply to come to our solution is complex and difficult to summarize for brief client interactions To build succinct and compelling presentations of our work, we use logical pyramids as the preferred communication style: Pyramids make in

20、formation more memorable and meaningful They lead to a clearer definition of the problems we solve They structure our solutions to these problems and make them more compellingSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle.which will make your work/life much easier to handleConsulting Skills WorkshopD

21、efine and Structure the ProblemConsulting Skills Workshop“If you dont know where you are going, any road will take you there. -AnonymousWhy problem definition mattersConsulting Skills WorkshopIn structuring a problem, break it into smaller, easier-to-handle components AND start with the right defini

22、tionsUS Car MarketLight TrucksPassenger CarsBig 3Mini VansSport UtilityVehiclesFordGMChryslerBut be careful why does this not work?Consulting Skills WorkshopMutually Exclusive and Comprehensively ExhaustiveThe most important rule for any structure you imposeConsulting Skills WorkshopDivideClarifyDia

23、gnosticFrameworkCause EffectFrameworkStructuralFrameworkProblem StructureTo help you solve a problem, your structure must:Disaggregate the problem into smaller and easier to solve componentsBe a “MECE description of the problem and its possible solutionsTrace CauseThere are three ways to structure a

24、 business problemSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle.Consulting Skills WorkshopHeadHurtsPhysicalMentalExternalInternalStress, TensionHypochondriaBumped, Bruised HeadAllergiesBad Weather, Sinus Headache, Flu, ColdBrain TumorWater on the BrainExample 1 disaggregate the problem into a diagnos

25、tic solution treeSCooPSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle.Consulting Skills WorkshopStore is withinshopping radiusdo not know about the storeknow about the storenever visit the storeenter the storedo not buymake a purchasedo not come backmake repeat purchasesLocationAdvertisingSignage, CIC

26、onversionCustomer ValueRoot CauseExample 2 (trace cause) disaggregate the problem into a cause-effect framework How can TESCO improve its sales productivity (sales/sq.ft.)?Consulting Skills WorkshopAccounttypePack sizeREPURCHASETarget market persuaded to repurchase?DISTRIBUTIONBrand madeavailable?TR

27、IALTarget market induced to try?AWARENESSTarget marketaware?ProductrejectionPrice/valuerejectionFrequencyof useOccasionof useConsumerprofilePackDisplayPromotiontypePromotiontuningSell-ineffectivenessFeedbackIf all lines of inquiry fail to reveal a problem source, go back to consider whether target m

28、arket and consumer benefit have been accurately defined.AttributeawarenessAdvertisingrecallAdvertisingspending rateMediamixRegional weightAdvertisingcommunicationTargetmarketConsumerbenefitRegionSales forcecoverageSales forcedirectionTradetermsExample 3 disaggregate the problem into an intrinsic str

29、ucture Why does Wimpys not show the anticipated financial performance?ChannelSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle.Productspec.SellingpriceBrandnamePackagingPOSITIONINGBrand properly positioned for themarket?Consulting Skills WorkshopExercise 1 Kmart vs. Wal*Mart: define and structure Kmarts

30、 business problem Situation Kmart and Wal*Mart operate similar chains of Full line Discount stores Different pricing strategies: Kmart follows a promotional pricing strategy of weekly sales, offering discounts on selected items, Wal*Mart follows an EDLP strategy (EDLP = Every Day Low Prices); Kmarts

31、 regular prices are higher than Wal*Marts, its sales prices are lower Wal*Mart has a better price perception than Kmart Kmart has a higher GM than Wal*Mart (23% vs. 21%) Kmart has significantly higher SG&A as percent of sales, which eliminate Kmarts Gross Margin advantage over Wal*Mart Wal*Marts

32、 scale advantage is not driven by the number of stores, but by its sales per store (better sales per square foot) Kmart has significantly lower sales per square foot sales than Wal*Mart ($170 vs $250). With Wal*Marts sales productivity, Kmart would be about as profitable as Wal*Mart Complication Kma

33、rt is operating at break-even, and Wal*Marts aggressive expansion puts more and more of Kmarts stores into direct competition with Wal*Mart, decreasing their store contribution and Kmarts overall profitability Question ?Structure Kmarts problem to help its management devise a solution, including ide

34、ntifying the key question that our study must answerConsulting Skills WorkshopExercise 1 define and structure Kmarts problem: first step is to logically organize the factsCompanyCompetitorCustomerHigher GM than WalMart (+)Higher SG&A expenses than WalMart (-)Aging storesHi / Lo pricing strategyL

35、ower net income than WalMartEroding same-store sales vs. WalMartSales / sq. ft. higher than KmartAggressive expansion into Kmart territoriesEDLP pricing strategyCustomers perceive WalMart prices better than KmartConsulting Skills WorkshopExercise 1 define and structure Kmarts problem: second step is

36、 to iterate to drive insight creationAlthough Kmarts Hi/Lo pricing strategy leads to high GM, high SG&A has led to eroding sales productivityHigher GM than WalMart (+)Higher SG&A expenses than WalMart (-)Aging storesHi / Lo pricing strategyLower net income than WalMartEroding same-store sale

37、s vs. WalMartSales / sq. ft. higher than KmartAggressive expansion into Kmart territoriesEDLP pricing strategyCustomers perceive WalMart prices better than KmartWalMart is aggressively expanding, with highly productive stores and a different pricing strategy than KMartCustomers perceive WalMart deli

38、vers higher value in some areasHow can Kmart improve its sales productivity (sales / sq. ft.)?Consulting Skills WorkshopExercise 4 summary performance data for a credit card issuer whats the problem?Note: All figures in 1000s. Assume no priceinflation and that interest rates have remained constantTh

39、e 80/20 Rule 80% of the answer is in 20% of the dataOften we miss the goldmine because we are busy trying to value the shack built on top of it This data, taken from a real client (but rebased,) tells the whole sorry story of their strategic problem in one picture Heading19981999 ChangeMarket Perfor

40、manceNo of Customers1,000 1,100 10%Number of Transactions50,000 52,000 4%Value of Transactions1,000,000 1,050,000 5%New Customers Added100 200 100%IncomeInterest Payments100,000 90,000 -10%Subscription Fees50,000 75,000 50%Transaction Fees100,000 105,000 5%Total250,000 270,000 8%ExpenditureOperation

41、al Costs55,000 55,000 0%Marketing and Sales10,000 13,000 30%Overhead25,000 25,000 0%Total90,000 93,000 3%Provision for Bad Debt10,000 20,000 100%Net Income150,000 157,000 5%Consulting Skills WorkshopExercise 5 using a “quick and dirty approach can produce surprisingly accurate results 30 million? 30

42、0 million? 3 billion? 30 billion? 300 billion?How Many (Retail) Litres of Petrol Are Sold in France Per Year?Data: French Population 60 million. 1 Gallon = 3.8 Litres Consulting Skills WorkshopDevelop a HypothesisConsulting Skills WorkshopExplicitly ties your analysis to your problem definitionWhy h

43、ypotheses matterThey keep your effortHelps define the level of accuracy that mattersEnsures you analyze no more than is needed to disprove hypotheses within a reasonable doubtAllows quick check before massive data collection and crunching:“If we confirm our belief in the hypothesis, will we be able

44、to act on it?Keeps you efficientOn targetAccurateMinimalActionableOn TimeConsulting Skills WorkshopSource: Barbara Minto, “The Pyramid Principle.1. Rule2. Case3. ResultRuleCaseResultIf we put the price too high, sales will go downWe have put prices too highTherefore, sales will go downCaseResultRule

45、We have put prices upSales have gone downSales have gone down because the price is too highSales have gone downSales go down when prices are too highProbably we have put prices too highHypothesisResultRuleCaseAbduction is a variation on deductive and inductive reasoning and a powerful tool to develop hypothesesDeductionInductionAbduction1. Case2. Result3. Rule1. Result2. Rule3. CaseConsulting Skills WorkshopDEVELOP A HYPOTHESISWhat differentiates a good hypothesis from a bad one? On target: Answers the core question on the client