PresentationbyAmbrogioBolliniSlide1很高興有機(jī)會(huì)在這里與各位

1、Presentation by Ambrogio BolliniSlide 1很高興有機(jī)會(huì)在這里與各位見面，就我們共同關(guān)心的行業(yè)話題交換意見。It is a great honor and great pleasure to meet all of you here today and have the possibility to exchange, onceaga in, views on com mon bus in ess related mattersSlide 2在此，我希望與各位分享歐洲宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)概況、對應(yīng)的物料搬運(yùn)行業(yè)的情況和將要到來的一年的預(yù)期What I would like

2、 to share with you today is an overview of the macro economical factors in EU and the releva ntimplicati on on material han dli ng bus in ess as well as the expectati ons for the years to come.Slide 3在我進(jìn)一步開始之前，有必要很快的回顧一下歐洲的組成從地理的角度看，歐洲由 47 個(gè)國家組成，其中的 27 個(gè)國家屬于歐共體成員國，并且有 16 個(gè)國家采 用歐元作為其交易貨幣（即所謂的歐元區(qū)）。屏幕上

3、的地圖代表了歐盟以及歐元區(qū)的國家成員Before I go any further, it is useful to review quickly what Europe consists ofFrom the geographical point of view Europe is composed of 47 Coun tries out of which 27 bel ong to theEuropean Community and 16 have adopted Euro as a currency (the so called Eurozone) The map on the scr

4、een prese nts an overview of the Coun tries members of Europea n Commu nity and Euroz oneSlide 4要了解我們歐洲現(xiàn)在所處的位置，最好的開始，就是去分析過去幾年的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展以及預(yù)測接下來一段 時(shí)期 GDP的增長根據(jù)國際貨幣基金組織最新的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)概況，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)的進(jìn)程比預(yù)期的更快，但速度很不相同（大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)國家較慢，一些新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體以及發(fā)展中國家增速較快）預(yù)計(jì) 4%的增長率，由 2%經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率的發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體以及 6%經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體組成A good starti ng point to un der

5、sta nd where we are head ing here in Europe, is to an alyze the econo micdevelopme nt over the past years and the forecast for the coming years in terms of GDP GrowthAccord ing to IMF latest World Econo mic Outlook update, the global recovery is proceedi ng better tha nexpected but at vary ing speed

6、s （slower in many “ adva need ”econo mies and faster in some“ emergingdevelop ing econo mies）The forecasted 4% growth rate average, is composed by 2% in theSlide 5相比世界上其他的地區(qū)，歐洲的表現(xiàn)較弱，而中國則引領(lǐng)了經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇，對過去幾年的全球 GDP 增 長作出了主要貢獻(xiàn)In this scenario, Europe s performanee remains weak compared in other parts of the

7、 world while China is leadingthe recovery, contributing mainly to this GDP trend in the past yearsSlide 6對歐洲 GDP 的發(fā)展和預(yù)期的進(jìn)一步調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示，得益于全球貿(mào)易的反彈和財(cái)政刺激政策，整個(gè)歐 洲正進(jìn)行著緩慢而不平穩(wěn)的復(fù)蘇。整個(gè)歐洲 GDP 的發(fā)展趨勢大體相同，但，國與國之間的表現(xiàn)還是相當(dāng)不同的法國和德國引領(lǐng)了經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇，而歐元區(qū)的其他國家則更為緩慢的恢復(fù)（意大利和西班牙最為明顯）。歐元區(qū)以外，英國相對恢復(fù)較快除了這一樂觀的預(yù)測外，我們必須考慮到一些經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的驅(qū)動(dòng)力恢復(fù)得比原先預(yù)測的更

8、弱，這給預(yù)測的增長蒙上一層陰影。A closer exam in atio n in to the Europe GDP developme nt and expectati on shows that a moderate and un eve nrecovery is tak ing place across Europe, supported by the rebo und in global trade and fiscal policy stimulusThe performa nces are rather differe nt Country by Country eve n i

9、f the trend is almost the same for all of themThe performa nee is led by France and Germa ny while other large euro-area econo mies are emerg ing moreslowly from the recessi on (no tably Italy and Spain). Outside Euroz one, UK is expected to recover relatively fastAside to this positive forecasted d

10、evelopment, it is to be considered that some of the “ drivers)f the recovery ”are still weaker than expected making some shadow on the forecasted growthSlide 7在這方面，最有趣的指數(shù)是經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣指數(shù)，用于衡量消費(fèi)者信心，類似于GDP 指數(shù)用于衡量工業(yè)、服務(wù)業(yè)、建筑業(yè)和零售業(yè)的信心?？傮w上經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣指數(shù)在增長，但仍低于歷史水平。各國的增長結(jié)果各有不同（深綠色更高），反映了歐盟各國不同的情況。這種經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣指數(shù)“預(yù)警” 了存在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的不確定性，這

11、有可能對預(yù)測的GDP 增長率造成影響。實(shí)際上，當(dāng)工業(yè)、服務(wù)業(yè)的信心指數(shù)一直在增長的同時(shí)，消費(fèi)者、建筑業(yè)和零售業(yè)信心指數(shù)變得更“emerg ingEconomies.advaneed ” Economies anc弱。這很有可能是由于一系列不確定因素影響著大部分的歐盟國家（國家財(cái)政赤字、公共債務(wù)、銀行 信用限制、歐元貶值、失業(yè)等），并且不可避免的會(huì)對經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展造成傷害。在這方面，也許我們可以來看看歐盟前五名國家的“失業(yè)率”和“通貨膨脹率”情況，相比其他因素，它們對于我們行業(yè)造成的沖擊更大。而根據(jù)WITS 的數(shù)據(jù)，我們的業(yè)務(wù)代表了 70%勺物料搬運(yùn)市場。In this respect, one o

12、f the most interesting index to follow, is the “ Economi（Sentiment Indicator measuri ng theCon sumer con fide nce along with the con fide nce in In dustry, Services, Con structi on and Retail whe ncompared with GDPOverall ESI in dex is improvi ng but still below historical levels and results are rat

13、her diversified from Country toCountry (dark gree n higher) reflecti ng the differe nt situati ons in EU“alerts ” that a leeetlaofi tuncin the economy still remains and might have some impact on theforecasted GDP GrowthIn fact, while the Con fide nce in dicators on “In dustry and “ Services have bee

14、 n in creased, those on“ Con sumeC on structi on and Retail are in stead rather weak. This is likely related to the nu mber of uncerta in ties affecti ng most of the EU Coun tries (Co un try deficit, Public debts, Bank credit restricti ons, Eurofluctuati on, Un employme nt, etc.) with the un avoidab

15、le impact on the economyIn this respect, it might be of some value to have a look on some of them such as“ un employme nt ”“ in flati on for” the Top 5 EU Coun tries, which more tha n others have an impact on our bus in ess as represents 70% of the material han dli ng market accord ing WITSSlide 8除了

16、西班牙，前五大歐盟國家的失業(yè)率已經(jīng)在減低，但不太可能出現(xiàn)過于戲劇化的發(fā)展。而西班牙的失業(yè)率惡化得非?？?，可能會(huì)在不遠(yuǎn)的將來達(dá)到很高的水平。盡管這樣，在很多情況下與事實(shí)是相當(dāng)不同的，因?yàn)閹缀跛械臍W盟國家有(現(xiàn)在仍然有)存在一些 地方的 社會(huì)支持系統(tǒng)r，向工人提供部分或全部資助，這使得失業(yè)比率不能準(zhǔn)確地反映現(xiàn)實(shí)情況。很明顯，如果經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的話，這些工人將會(huì)被重新吸收。而在經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步停滯不前的情況下，一些歐 盟成員國的失業(yè)率就會(huì)增加，比如意大利。The un employme nt ratio within the top 5 EU Coun tries, with the excepti on o

17、f Spa in (where the in crease wasdramatic and might rema in at an high level in the n ear future), has bee n worse ning but not at the dramatic levelshould have bee n expectedDespite this, the reality in many cases is rather different as almost all EU Countries had (and still have) in placesome “ so

18、cial support system ”where workers are kept partially or totally subsidized making the un employme ntratio not reflecti ng precisely the realityIt is obvious that, if Economy will be back, these workers will be re-absorbed by industries while in case of furtherstag nati on the Un employme nt rati on

19、 might in crease in some EU Coun tries like Italy as exampleThe ESI in dexandSlide 9至于通貨膨脹率，其總體的發(fā)展情況是在2007 年 8 月達(dá)到記錄的峰值，在 2009 年回落。通貨膨脹壓力預(yù)計(jì)仍將疲弱，因?yàn)楣姷男枨笕匀缓艿驮谖磥韮赡?，歐盟內(nèi)前五名國家的通貨膨脹率預(yù)計(jì)將穩(wěn)定在2%左右，當(dāng)然英國不屬于歐元區(qū)的一部分。As far as the inflation rate is concern, the overall development coincides with the pick recorded i

20、n the market in20078 and the drop in 2009In flati on pressures are expected to rema in subdued, as the public dema nd is still lowThe forecast for the Top 5 Countries within EU is for a stabilization around 2% in the next two years (UK is not partof the Euroz one)Slide 11Let s now move in side our b

21、us in ess現(xiàn)在讓我們看看我們的行業(yè)Slide 12這張圖表代表了這些年“全球”的市場規(guī)模變化情況，大家可以看到 20072008 年間所記錄的市場總臺(tái)數(shù)峰值為 950,000 臺(tái)，2009 年急劇下滑到 547,000 臺(tái)。需要特別注意的是：平衡重叉車(第1、4、5 類車型)比倉儲(chǔ)叉車(第 2、3 類車型)的市場總臺(tái)數(shù)下跌得更深。This chart represents the “ worldwide market size over the time where it is evident the pick recorded between2007 and 2008 (MAT 95

22、0 000 units) and the “ sharp and fast ” drop experieneed in 2009 547 000 units)To be noticed that the drop was more deep for CB s units (Class 1,4, 5) rather than WH units (ClassSlide 13而這張圖表則代表了這些年的“歐洲”的市場規(guī)模變化情況，即20072008 年達(dá)到總臺(tái)數(shù)峰值為380,000 臺(tái)，2009 年急劇下滑到 180,000 臺(tái)。需要特別注意的是：甚至在歐洲，平衡重叉車(第 1、4、5 類車型)也比倉

23、儲(chǔ)叉車(第 2、3 類車型) 的市場總臺(tái)數(shù)下跌得更深。This chart represe nts in stead the“ Europea n market ” size over the time where is evide nt the pickrein the same period 2007 and 2008 (MAT 380 000idrtHe) “sharp and fast ” drop experieneed in2009 (MAT 180 000 units).To be noticed that, even in Europe, the drop was more d

24、eep for CB units (Class 2, 3)Slide 14市場的發(fā)展情況在所有的歐盟國家?guī)缀跻粯?，但我相信仔?xì)研究東歐和西歐各自的市場發(fā)展變化會(huì)很 有價(jià)值。有必要先概況一下，在 WITS 數(shù)據(jù)中，歐洲國家從地理上分為東歐和西歐兩部分。The market development is rather the same in almost all EU Countries but I believe it might be of a value to have anin sight on developme nt in the Easter n and Wester n part

25、of EuropeBefore that it might be useful to recap which Geographic Coun tries are classified as East and West with in WITSstatisticsSlide 15在經(jīng)歷了 2009 年的急劇下滑后的幾個(gè)月，地理上的歐洲市場正給出經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)步復(fù)蘇的信號 這種經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇存在于西歐（“最強(qiáng)”的經(jīng)濟(jì)體）和東歐（“快速增長”的經(jīng)濟(jì)體）。The Geographic Euro Market, after the dramatic drop experie need in 2009, since s

26、ome mon ths is giving sig n ofsteady recoveryThis recovery is in place in both West (where the “ strongest ” economies are located) and East (where most ofthe“ faster growing ” economies are located)Slide 16西歐（即所謂老歐洲”）的所有 16 個(gè)國家都是歐元區(qū)的一部分，它的市場規(guī)模代表了歐盟市場的最 大份額。The Western market size (the so called“ ol

27、d Europe ” ) where all the 16 Countries part of theEurozolocated, represent the by far largest portion of the EU marketSlide 17相比而言，東歐的市場規(guī)模明顯地更小，但其自 2007 年 8 月以來的市場增長率卻令人印象深刻。并非偶然，他們受到 2009 年的市場衰退的嚴(yán)重懲罰，而造成了 “脆弱”經(jīng)濟(jì)局面。The Easter n market size in stead, is sig nifica ntly smaller in perce ntage terms b

28、ut the growth rate recorded since20078 was impressiveNot incidentally, they were the most penalized economy from the 2009 market downturn given the“ morefragile ” economic situationSlide 18總之，歐洲的 GDP 增長緩慢，但在第 1、2 季度保持持續(xù)增長。依賴于全球需求的重新平衡，現(xiàn)在還 無法確認(rèn)第 3季度能否保持同樣的增長速度。s units (Class 1,4, 5) rathei不確定性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)依然存在

29、，主要包括國家財(cái)政赤字、公共債務(wù)、銀行信貸的限制、歐元波動(dòng)、失業(yè)等 因素。在過去的幾年，幾乎所有的機(jī)械行業(yè)都發(fā)生了重大重組，以提高適應(yīng)能力與市場競爭力 在工業(yè)活動(dòng)恢復(fù)的一段時(shí)間后，原材料開始恢復(fù)增長了。In summary: The European GDP was slowly but consistently growing in Q1 and Q2 this year while it is not confirmed the same pace in Q3 as mostly depe nds on rebala ncing global dema ndUn certa in ties

30、 and risks rema in main ly on Country deficit, Public debts, Bank credit restricti ons, Euro fluctuati on,Un employme ntMajor restructuri ng took place in the past years in almost all mecha ni cal in dustries to adapt capacity and increase competitive nessRaw material start to grow aga in since some

31、 time in dicat ing a recovery in the in dustrial activitiesSlide 佃下面是歐盟最近的市場預(yù)測：這當(dāng)然是非常有趣且困難的嘗試，因?yàn)镕EM 不斷地有類似的陳述，與我的觀點(diǎn)不謀而合。2007 年 8 月所記錄的市場回暖高峰短期內(nèi)不會(huì)重現(xiàn)；德國將繼續(xù)成為歐盟經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的主要推動(dòng)力；市場增長將繼續(xù)保持一些小的“ W 型增長，預(yù)計(jì)這一趨勢整體上將保持積極方向； 到 2012 年，市場規(guī)模將重回2006 年水平，這在今天看來應(yīng)該是比較現(xiàn)實(shí)的預(yù)計(jì)。The today EU market expectati onThis is of course the most interesting and difficult exercise, but there are “recurrenstatements withinFEM community.I would like to report as they“ coincide ” with my opinionThe market pick recorded in 20078 will not