社會研究方法(雙語)：因果關(guān)系本質(zhì)

1、Chapter 3The Causal RelationshipThe Logic of Nomothetic ExplanationIn this model, we try to find independent variables that account for the variations in a given phenomenon. This contrasts with the idiographic model, in which we seek a complete, in-depth understanding of a single case.Criteria for N

2、omothetic CausalityA statistical correlation between the two variables.The cause takes place before the effect.There is no third variable that can explain away the observed correlation as spurious.CorrelationA relationship between two variables such thatchanges in one are associated with changes in

3、the otherparticular attributes of one variable are associated with particular attributes of the other.Correlation in and of itself does not constitute a causal relationship between the two variables, but it is one criterion of causality.Spurious RelationshipsRelationships that arent genuine.A coinci

4、dental statistical correlation between two variables, shown to be caused by some third variable.False Criteria for Nomothetic CausalityResearch can determine some causes, but it cannot determine complete causation. Exceptions do not disprove a causal relationship.Causal relationships can be true eve

5、n if they dont apply in a majority of cases.QuestionA _ is an empirical relationship between two variables such that changes in one are associated with changes in the other.nomothetic explanationregression analysiscorrelationA.spurious relationshipAnswer: CA correlation is an empirical relationship

6、between two variables such that changes in one are associated with changes in the other.Example of a Spurious Causal RelationshipNecessary and Sufficient CausesNecessary cause - a condition that must be present for the effect to follow.Sufficient cause - condition that if present, guarantees the eff

7、ect in question.Causes that are both necessary and sufficient are the most satisfying outcome in research.Necessary CauseSufficient Cause科學(xué)家的主要目標(biāo)之一就是解釋現(xiàn)象，科學(xué)家的主要目標(biāo)之一就是解釋現(xiàn)象，最典型的做法就是指出產(chǎn)生一些現(xiàn)象的原因。最典型的做法就是指出產(chǎn)生一些現(xiàn)象的原因。因果關(guān)系可能非常單純，也可能異常復(fù)因果關(guān)系可能非常單純，也可能異常復(fù)雜。雜。自然科學(xué)動作的基礎(chǔ)是因果關(guān)系、決定自然科學(xué)動作的基礎(chǔ)是因果關(guān)系、決定論模式。論模式。比如，是營養(yǎng)在影響

8、生長，而不是自由比如，是營養(yǎng)在影響生長，而不是自由意志。意志。社會科學(xué)中的原因探尋課題：人為什么有偏見？有人報告說：經(jīng)過全面調(diào)查研究，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)部分人有偏見，原因是他們想有偏見。部分人沒有偏見，是因為他們不想有偏見。這個因果模式成立嗎？正確的思路：人為什么有偏見？可能的原因包括經(jīng)濟競爭、宗教意識、政治觀點、童年經(jīng)歷、受教育程度如果知道答案，我們就可以更好地改造社會。因果關(guān)系的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)Paul Lazarsfeld所提出的雙變量間因果關(guān)系的三個標(biāo)準(zhǔn)：1. 在時序上，先有因后有果；2. 兩個變量之間具有實證相關(guān)性。3.兩個變量間的實證相關(guān)不因為第三個變量的存在而存在。例如：冰淇淋的銷量與溺水死亡的人數(shù)之

9、間正相關(guān)，但并不能說冰淇淋銷售是溺水死亡的原因。因為這里存在第三個變量與此緊密相關(guān)季節(jié)（氣溫）。注意：相關(guān)并等于有因果關(guān)系。必要原因和充分原因在概率模式中，原因可以區(qū)分為兩類：必要原因和充分原因。必要原因是指產(chǎn)生效應(yīng)必不可少的條件。必要原因可以用“只有才”的句式來表達(dá)。列舉一些下列事項的必要原因：拿到學(xué)位；獲得獎學(xué)金；上網(wǎng)。必要原因和充分原因充分原因是指如果某一條件出現(xiàn)，便可出現(xiàn)預(yù)期的結(jié)果。有了充分原因，就足以產(chǎn)生結(jié)果。充分原因可以用“只要就”的句式來表達(dá)。列舉一些下列事項的充分原因：拿不到學(xué)位；有服兵役的義務(wù)。必要原因和充分原因最理想的情況是個因素既是必要條件，又是充分條件。但這種情況很難。不論是必要或充分原因，都可以當(dāng)成判定因果是否存在的依據(jù)。一個案例一項研究認(rèn)為，水的氟化和艾滋病有關(guān)?！叭腊霐?shù)的社區(qū)，水是經(jīng)過氟化的；另外一半則沒有。而在艾滋病病例中，90%來自水氟化地區(qū)，只有10%來自水未氟化地區(qū)?！边@個推理哪里出了問題？1.半數(shù)社區(qū)不代表半數(shù)人口。2.與小鎮(zhèn)和農(nóng)村相比，大城市里有（1）更加普遍的和艾滋病有關(guān)的生活