GatorPopOperations

1、Gator Pop OperationsDr. Everette S. Gardner, Jr.11. IntroductionThe alert student will recall that Alligator Sushi was originally developed at Wildflour Restaurants flagship location in Missouri City. This product is composed of thin slices of fresh alligator marinated in corn liquor. The processing

2、 cycle is relatively simple. Fresh alligators are received daily from a supplier in Hope, Arkansas. On arrival, the alligators are released in a pit in Wildflours bar. Accompanied by cheers from bar patrons, Danny Darwin and John Cangelosi descend into the pit, wrestle the alligators into submission

3、, and tie them up. Next, the executive chef, Jose Lima, enters the pit to slay and slice the beasts. Jose tosses the sushi into vats of 150-proof corn liquor. Bartenders fish out slices from the vats as needed.Matt Galante, Wildflour CEO, decided to develop a new version of Alligator Sushi as a supe

4、rmarket and liquor-store product. The sushi will be frozen and marketed as an adult popsicle under the trade name “Gator Pops.” You have been engaged as an operations management consultant to Matt.22. Simple exponential smoothing and seasonal adjustmentYour first task is to forecast national quarter

5、ly sales of Gator Pops. The table below shows the results of seasonal adjustment for the first two years of actual sales (in millions of pops). Actual Moving Sum of # of Avg. Seas. Adj. Year Qtr t Data Avg. Ratio ratios ratios ratio Index Data 1998 1 1 280 0.0 0.00 0.82 1 0.821 0.820 341.4 2 2 290 0

6、.0 0.00 0.89 1 0.891 0.889 326.1 3 3 400 330.0 1.21 2.45 2 1.225 1.223 327.0 4 4 350 327.5 1.07 1.07 1 1.069 1.067 327.9 1999 1 5 270 328.8 0.82 Sum 4.005 4.000 329.2 2 6 295 331.3 0.89 331.7 3 7 410 331.3 1.24 335.2 4 8 350 0.0 0.00 327.9 Apply simple exponential smoothing with a weight of 0.50 to

7、the last year of seasonally-adjusted data. Start with a forecast of 329.2 for the first quarter of 1999.A. What are the MAD and MSE values for 1999?B. What are the seasonally-adjusted forecasts for each quarter in the year 2000?C. Reverse the seasonal adjustment in the forecasts. What are the final

8、forecasts for each quarter in the year 2000? 33. Trend-adjusted smoothingSales in Arcola, Texas (in thousands of pops) for the first three months after product introduction in that market were:MonthArcola salesSeptember100October120November130There is not enough data to estimate seasonality in that

9、market. Apply trend-adjusted smoothing with the following weights: level = .3, trend = .1, and trend modifier = .9.A. What is the forecast for December?B. What is the forecast for January?C. What is the forecast for April?44. EOQ and safety stocksAfter several years of Gator Pop production, Matt Gal

10、ante realized that he needed a better inventory management system for the major Gator Pop components: Gators, wrappers, and popsicle sticks. Matt ordered every item once per week. He was concerned about the reordering workload and wanted to explore alternative ordering rules.Matt asks you to develop

11、 an EOQ-based inventory management system for Gator Pop components. As a test case, Matt provides annual demand forecasts in dollars for the Brices Crossroads, Mississippi, sales region:ItemAnnual demand $Gators $10,000Wrappers 900Sticks 64You may assume that demand is very stable and there is no ne

12、ed for safety stock. The demand values above are forecasts for the next year from simple exponential smoothing. You may ignore corn liquor demand because it is produced on site in bulk quantities from very inexpensive componentsfermentation time is only about two hours so any shortages can be remedi

13、ed quickly.Answer the following questions:A. What is Matts total inventory investment and re-ordering workload for these items under current policy (ordering every item once per week)? Assume that the work year includes 50 weeks, that is Matt orders every item 50 times per year.B. Suppose that you i

14、mplement the EOQ model with K = 1. Compute inventory investment and re-ordering workload. What are the investment and workload savings from the EOQ model?54. EOQ and safety stocks (cont.)Matt becomes unhappy with the EOQ using K = 1 for Gators. He feels that the ordering rate is still too high. Furt

15、hermore, demand has become variable and he is concerned about possible stockouts. The demand forecast for next year is still $10,000, although the standard deviation of forecast errors for monthly forecasts has increased from near zero to $120.Answer the following questions:C. Compute the EOQ and re

16、ordering workload for Gators using K = 5.D. Compute the reorder point and safety stock. Leadtime is 1 month and Matt wants a 10% probability of running out of stock during one leadtime.E. What are the minimum and maximum inventory investment values for the new EOQ and safety stock policy for Gators?

17、65. MRPMatt asks you to experiment with MRP techniques for managing Gator Pop sticks. Here are gross requirements for the next 6 weeks, in thousands of sticks:Week 1 2 3 4 5 6Gross requirements20 5 10 20 5 70Currently, there are 25,000 sticks on hand, with 5,000 sticks allocated to a special order (

18、for “Road Party 77” to celebrate the completion of the last section of the Sam Houston Tollwaynever mind that less than half of the exits on the Tollway are complete). There is a scheduled receipt of 15,000 sticks due in week 1. Matt asks you to order lot-for-lot, with a 2-week leadtime, and maintai

19、n a safety stock of 5,000 sticks.Answer the following questions:A. What are the net requirements for the 6-week period?B. When should planned orders be received and released? 76. Project managementHere are the activities in rolling out a new Gator Pop promotion:Task Description Time Immediate Predec

20、essorsA Get Matt to approve budget 2 weeks B Select advertising theme 2 AC Produce flyers 12 AD Buy radio time 3 BE Schedule magazine ads 3 BF Train salespeople 1 BG Prepare radio copy 4 DH Prepare magazine copy 6 EI Distribute flyers 2 C,FJ Run special in supermarkets 3 G,H,IDraw this project in ac

21、tivities on arrows format. Then answer the following questions:A. What is the earliest that this project can be finished?B. Which activities are critical?C. Which activities have the most slack?87. Waiting-line analysisMatt asks you to analyze the idea of selling Gator Pops from a refrigerated cart

22、on the club level at Enron Field. This idea came from Yogi Berra, who was coaxed out of retirement to assist the Astros in food service. Yogi estimates that customers will arrive at the cart at the rate or 170 per hour throughout a ball game. Yogi plans to run the cart himself and thinks he can serv

23、e about 3 customers per minute.Matts instructions were as follows: “This may be a super idea, but I want to know how long the waiting line is likely to be. If there are too many people in line, the club level could get congested. I think about 20 people in line is all we can stand. Also, how long will it take for people to wait in line and get served? If the fans think they will miss a half-inning, they wont bother to get in line. Heres something else to worry about: How do we know that Yogi can handle this thing himself?