INVESTMENTS 投資學(xué) （博迪BODIE, KANE, MARCUS）Chap017Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis

1、CHAPTER 17Macroeconomic and Industry AnalysisA firms value comes from its earnings prospects, which are determined by:The global economic environmentEconomic factors affecting the firms industry The position of the firm within its industryFundamental Analysis2Stock markets around the world responded

2、 in unison to the financial crisis of 2008.Performance in countries and regions can be highly variable.It is harder for businesses to succeed in a contracting economy than in an expanding one.The Global Economy3Political risk:The global environment may present much greater risks than normally found

3、in U.S.-based investments.Exchange rate risk:Changes the prices of imports and exports.The Global Economy4Table 17.1 Economic Performance5The Domestic MacroeconomyStock prices rise with earnings.P/E ratios are normally in the range of 12-25.The first step in forecasting the performance of the broad

4、market is to assess the status of the economy as a whole.6Figure 17.2 S&P 500 Index versus Earnings Per Share 7Gross domestic productUnemployment ratesInflationInterest ratesBudget deficitConsumer sentimentThe Domestic Macroeconomy:Key Variables8Demand and Supply ShocksDemand shock - an event that a

5、ffects demand for goods and services in the economySupply shock - an event that influences production capacity or production costs9Demand-side PolicyFiscal policy the governments spending and taxing actionsMonetary policy manipulation of the money supply10Fiscal PolicyMost direct way to stimulate or

6、 slow the economyFormulation of fiscal policy is often a slow, cumbersome political process11Fiscal PolicyTo summarize the net effect of fiscal policy, look at the budget surplus or deficit.Deficit stimulates the economy because: it increases the demand for goods (via spending) by more than it reduc

7、es the demand for goods (via taxes)12Monetary PolicyManipulation of the money supply to influence economic activity.Increasing the money supply lowers interest rates and stimulates the economy.Less immediate effect than fiscal policyTools of monetary policy include open market operations, discount r

8、ate, reserve requirements.13Supply-Side PoliciesGoal: To create an environment in which workers and owners of capital have the maximum incentive and ability to produce and develop goods.Supply-siders focus on how tax policy can be used to improve incentives to work and invest.14Business CyclesThe tr

9、ansition points across cycles are called peaks and troughs.A peak is the transition from the end of an expansion to the start of a contraction. A trough occurs at the bottom of a recession just as the economy enters a recovery.15The Business CycleCyclical IndustriesAbove-average sensitivity to the s

10、tate of the economy.Examples include producers of consumer durables (e.g. autos) and capital goods (i.e. goods used by other firms to produce their own products.)High betasDefensive IndustriesLittle sensitivity to the business cycleExamples include food producers and processors, pharmaceutical firms

11、, and public utilitiesLow betas16Leading indicators tend to rise and fall in advance of the economy.Coincident indicators move with the market.Lagging indicators change subsequent to market movements.Economic Indicators17Figure 17.4 Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators18Table 17.4

12、Useful Economic Indicators 19Economic CalendarMany sources, such as The Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Finance, publish the public announcement dates of various economic statistics. 20Figure 17.5 Economic Calendar at Yahoo!21Industry AnalysisIt is unusual for a firm in a troubled industry to perform

13、 well.Economic performance can vary widely across industries.22Figure 17.6 Return on Equity, 2009 23Figure 17.7 Industry Stock Price Performance, 200924Defining an IndustryNorth American Industry Classification System, or NAICS codesFirms with the same four-digit NAICS codes are commonly taken to be

14、 in the same industry.25Table 17.5 Examples of NAICS Industry Codes 26Sensitivity to the Business CycleSensitivity of sales:Necessities vs. discretionary goodsItems that are not sensitive to income levels (such as tobacco and movies) vs. items that are, (such as machine tools, steel, autos)Three fac

15、tors determine how sensitive a firms earnings are to the business cycle.27Figure 17.9 Industry Cyclicality 28Sensitivity to the Business CycleFirms with low operating leverage (less fixed assets) are less sensitive to business conditions.Firms with high operating leverage (more fixed assets) are mor

16、e sensitive to the business cycle.Operating leverage : the split between fixed and variable costs29Table 17.6 Operating Leverage of Firms A and B Throughout the Business Cycle 30Sensitivity to the Business CycleInterest is a fixed cost that increases the sensitivity of profits to the business cycle.

17、Financial leverage: the use of borrowing31Figure 17.10 A Stylized Depiction of the Business Cycle32Sector RotationPortfolio is shifted into industries or sectors that should outperform, according to the stage of the business cycle.Peaks natural resource extraction firmsContraction defensive industri

18、es such as pharmaceuticals and food33Sector RotationTrough capital goods industriesExpansion cyclical industries such as consumer durables34Figure 17.11 Sector Rotation35Industry Life CyclesStageStart-upConsolidationMaturityRelative DeclineSales GrowthRapid and increasingStableSlowingMinimal or negative36Figure 17.12 The Industry Life Cycle37Which Life Cycle Stage is Most Attractive?Quote from Peter Lynch in One Up on Wall Street: Many people prefer to invest in a high-growth industry, where theres a lot of sound and fury. Not m