金融市場英文教學(xué)課件：Chapter 11 The Stock Market

1、Chapter 11The Stock Market PAGE 61Chapter 11The Stock MarketInvesting in StocksCommon Stock Versus Preferred StockHow Stocks are SoldComputing the Price of a Common StockMini-Case: NASDAQ: Fighting for its Life Against ECNsThe One-Period ValuationThe Generalized Dividend ModelThe Gordon Growth Model

2、Price Earnings Valuation MethodHow the Market Sets Security PricesErrors in ValuationProblems with Estimating GrowthProblems with Estimating RiskProblems with Forecasting DividendsCase: The September 11 Terrorist Attack, the Enron Scandal, and the Stock MarketStock Market IndexesMini Case: History o

3、f the Dow Jones Industrial AverageBuying Foreign StockRegulation of the Stock MarketThe Securities and Exchange CommissionOverview and Teaching TipsBecause the market for stocks is of such great interest to students, this chapter has been expanded over previous editions. It discusses theories of how

4、 stocks are priced and how information is incorporated into stock prices. Laying out the simple models of the one-period valuation model, the generalized dividend model, the Gordon model and the P/E Valuation Method give students the tools to understand how stock prices are determined. However, stoc

5、k market valuation is by no means simple and this is emphasized to the students in the section on errors in valuation which outlines why it is so tricky to use these simple models.Begin this chapter by defining equity and show the difference between stocks which represent ownership and bonds which r

6、epresent no ownership of the company. Investors receive a return on their investment in one of two ways: (1) price of stock rises or (2) firms issue stockholder dividends. Stock is either common stock or preferred stock. With the increase of international trading, investors have gone to other countr

7、ies to buy securities. This is a growing market to the U.S. Trading of the capital securities will occur in two types of exchanges: organized exchanges and over-the-counter exchanges. Popular organized exchanges are the New York Stock Exchange, also the largest, the American Stock Exchange, and the

8、London Stock Exchange. This chapter contains extensive discussion of stock valuation. This provides an excellent opportunity to discuss the efficient market hypothesis presented in chapter 6.Students should be instructed on the strengths and weaknesses of the stock indexes as well as the role of the

9、 SEC in their regulation.Answers to End-of-Chapter Questions1.The value of any asset is the present value of its future cash flows. The value of a bond is the PV of the interests payments plus the PV of the final payment. Stocks are valued the same way. The price is the PV of the cash flows that sto

10、ck is expected to generate for the investor.2.There are two cash flows from stock, periodic dividends, and a future sales price. Dividends are frequently changed when firm earnings either rise or fall. The future sales price is also difficult to estimate, since it depends on the dividends that will

11、be paid at some date even farther in the future. Bond cash flows also consist of two parts, periodic interest payments and a final maturity payment. These payments are established in writing at the time the bonds are issued and cannot be changed without the firm defaulting and being subject to bankr

12、uptcy. Stock prices tend to be more volatile, since their cash flows are more subject to change.3.Organized exchanges have a physical building where business is conducted. They generally have a governing board that establishes rules for trading. The organized exchanges tend to have larger firms list

13、ed on them than trade over the counter.4.NASDAQ is a computer network that allows traders to monitor stocks traded on the over-the-counter market. It provides current bid and ask prices on about 4000 actively traded securities.5.Stocks do not mature, do not pay a fixed amount every period, and often

14、 give holders the right to vote on management issues.6.At least 7 of the 30 firms are involved in high-technology products or services. This has increased the volatility of the Dow index in recent years as these firms were added.Quantitative ProblemsEbay, Inc. went public in September of 1998. The f

15、ollowing information on shares outstanding was listed in the final prospectus filed with the SEC This information is summarized from /Archieves/edgar/data/1065088/0001012870-98-002475.txt.In the IPO, the Ebay issued 3,500,000 new shares. The initial price to the public was $18.00 per share. The fina

16、l first-day closing price was $44.88.1.If the investment bankers retained $1.26 per share as fees, what was the net proceeds to Ebay? What was the market capitalization of new shares of Ebay?Solution:Net Proceeds to Ebay (18.00 1.26) 3,500,000 $58,590,000.00Market Cap 44.88 3,500,000 157,080,0002.Tw

17、o common statistics in IPOs are underpricing and money left on the table. Underpricing is defined as percentage change between the offering price and the first day closing price. Money left on the table is the difference between the first day closing price and the offering price, multiplied by the n

18、umber of shares offered. Calculated the underpricing and money left on the table for Ebay. What does this suggest about the efficiency of the IPO process?Solution:Underpricing (44.88 18.00)/18.00) 149.33%MLOT (44.88 18.00) 3,500,000 $94,080,0003.The shares of Misheak, Inc. are expected to generated

19、the following possible returns over the next 12 months:ReturnProbability5%0.105%0.2510%0.3015%0.2525%0.10If the stock is currently trading at $25/share, what is the expected price in one year. Assume that the stock pays no dividends.Solution:The expected return over the next 12 months is calculated

20、as:0.05 0.10 0.05 0.25 0.10 0.30 0.15 0.25 0.25 0.10 0.10This suggests that the expected price is $25 (1.10) $27.504.Suppose Soft People, Inc. is selling at $19.00 and currently pays an annual dividend of $0.65 per share. Analysts project that the stock will be priced around $23.00 in one year. What

21、 is the expected return?Solution:5.Suppose Microsoft, Inc. was trading at $27.29 per share. At that time, It pays an annual dividend of $0.32 per share, and analysts have set a 1-year target price around $33.30 per share. What is the expected return on this stock?Solution:6.LaserAce is selling at $2

22、2.00 per share. The most recent annual dividend paid was $0.80. Using the Gordon Growth model, if the market requires a return of 11%, what is the expected dividend growth rate for LaserAcer?Solution:7.Huskie Motors just paid an annual dividend of $1.00 per share. Management has promised shareholder

23、s to increase dividends a constant rate of 5%. If the required return is 12%, what is the current price per share?Solution:8.Suppose Microsoft, Inc. is trading at $27.29 per share. It pays an annual dividend of $0.32 per share, which is double its last years dividend of $0.16 per share. If this tren

24、d is expected to continue, what is the required return on Microsoft?Solution: orke 102%.This seems a bit high. Perhaps investors dont believe this trend will continue forever, or this isnt the correct valuation model for Microsoft!9.Gordon & Co.s stock has just paid its annual dividend $1.10 per sha

25、re. Analysts believe that Gordon will maintain its historic dividend growth rate of 3%. If the required return is 8%, what is the expected price of the stock next year?Solution:10.Macro Systems just paid an annual dividend of $0.32 per share. Its dividend is expected to double for the next four year

26、s (D1 through D4), after which it will grow at a more modest pace of 1% per year. If the required return is 13%, what is the current price?Solution:11.Nat-T-Cat Industries just went public. As a growing firm, it is not expected to pay a dividend for the first five years. After that, investors expect

27、 Nat-T-Cat to pay an annual dividend $1.00 per share(i.e., D6 1.00), with no growth. If the required return is 10%, what is the current stock price?Solution:so,P0 P5/(1.10)5 $6.2112.Analysts are projecting that CB Railways will have earnings per share of $3.90. If the average industry ratio is about

28、 25, what is the current price of CB Railways?Solution:Price 3.90 25 $97.5013.Suppose Microsoft, Inc. reported earnings per share around $0.75. If Microsoft is in an industry with a ratio ranging from 30 to 40, what is a reasonable price range for Microsoft?Solution:Microsofts price should be betwee

29、n $0.75 30 to $0.75 40, or $22.50 to $30.00.14.Consider the following security information for 4 securities making up an index:SecurityPriceSharesOutstandingtime 0time 1181320 million2222550 million33530120 million4505575 millionWhat is the change in the value of the index from time 0 to time 1 if the index is calculated using a value-weighted arithmetic mean?Solution:For a value-weighted arithmetic mean, the change is calculated as follows:First, the market value at time 0 is calculated as:SecurityPriceSharesOutstandingMarketValuetime 0time 1181320 million$ 1602222550 mill