貨幣金融學(xué)第11版-米什金-思考題目答案第25章

1、Chapter 25ANSWERS TO QUESTIONSDespite very low interest rates as a result of monetary easing, expenditures on consumer durables were weak at this period of time, indicating that the interest rate channel, as it affected consumer durables, was not very healthy. As a result, the government instituted

2、such programs in order to more directly stimulate spending in these areas.盡管由于貨幣寬松政策利率非常低，但在這段時(shí)間內(nèi)，消費(fèi)者耐用品支出疲軟，這表明利率渠道，因?yàn)樗绊懥四陀孟M(fèi)品， 并不是很健康。因此，政府制定了這樣的計(jì)劃，以便更直接地刺激這些領(lǐng)域的支出。Uncertain. Although consumption is the largest part of overall U.S. GDP, and there is no doubt that these channels can be important t

3、o monetary policy effectiveness, some may disagree with this statement. For instance, even though investment is closer to 15% of U.S. GDP, investment fluctuations are much more pronounced over the business cycle than changes in consumption, leading to the possibility that interest rate effects on in

4、vestment could be potentially more important. In addition, proponents of the credit view believe that credit market effects are much more important than interest rate effects, and since the credit view primarily impacts investment, credit effects on investment could be potentially more powerful than

5、 consumption effects from monetary policy changes.不確定的。盡管消費(fèi)是整個(gè)美國(guó)GDP的最大組成部分，但毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，這些渠道對(duì)貨幣政策的有效性很重要，有些人可能不同意這種說(shuō)法。例如，即使投資接近美國(guó)GDP的15% ,投資波動(dòng)在商業(yè)周期中比消費(fèi)變化更明顯，這就導(dǎo)致了利率對(duì)投資的影響可能更重要。止匕外，信用觀點(diǎn)的支持者認(rèn)為，信貸市場(chǎng)效應(yīng)比利率效應(yīng)更重要，而且由于信貸觀點(diǎn)主要影響投資，信貸對(duì)投 資的影響可能比貨幣政策變化帶來(lái)的消費(fèi)效應(yīng)更強(qiáng)大。If the central bank commits to a higher inflation policy

6、while maintaining low nominal interest rates, this will raise inflation expectations and therefore lower real interest rates, even if the nominal interest rate is zero. In addition, the central bank can commit to keeping short-term interest rates low for a long time, which can have the effect of low

7、ering longer-term nominal interest rates, which also reduces real longer-term interest rates.如果央行在維持低名義利率的同時(shí)承諾提高通脹政策，這將提高通脹預(yù)期，從而降低實(shí)際利率，即使名義利率為零。止匕外，央 行還可以承諾長(zhǎng)期保持低短期利率，從而降低長(zhǎng)期名義利率，這也會(huì)降低實(shí)際較長(zhǎng)期利率。Part of the problem with deflation is that lower (negative) inflation raises the real interest rate, which rai

8、ses the cost of capital and lowers investment and consumption through the interest-rate channel, creating further deflationary pressure. In addition, short-term nominal interest rates reach the zero lower bound, meaning traditional monetary policy is rendered ineffective. Thus, by beinga responsibly

9、irresponsible, “ central banks can commit to creating strong but temporary inflationary policies that are designed to raise inflation expectations (and hence lower real interest rates) enough to create stimulus through the interest-rate channel and expand aggregate demand safely and surely to get ou

10、t of a deflationary spiral.通縮問(wèn)題的部分原因在于，較低的(負(fù)面)通脹率提高了實(shí)際利率，從而提高了資本成本，通過(guò)利率渠道降低了投資和消費(fèi)，從而產(chǎn)生了進(jìn)一步的通縮壓力。止匕外，短期名義利率達(dá)到零下限，意味著傳統(tǒng)貨幣政策失效。因此，通過(guò) 負(fù)責(zé)任的不負(fù)責(zé)任”央行可以致力于創(chuàng)造強(qiáng)大但暫時(shí)性的通貨膨脹政策，旨在提高通貨膨脹的預(yù)期 (因此低實(shí)際利率)足以創(chuàng)造刺激通過(guò)利率渠道和擴(kuò)大總需求肯定安全的通縮螺旋。An advantage to monetary policy having so many channels through which it can impact the e

11、conomy is that if policy is rendered ineffective through any one particular channel, it doesn mean the policy is tentirely ineffective, as there are other channels and other sectors of the economy in which the same policy can still impact the economy. On the other hand, having so many different chan

12、nels through which monetary policy operates can increase uncertainty over the effects of any given policy.Chapter 251 / 5貨幣政策擁有很多渠道影響經(jīng)濟(jì)，如果政策呈現(xiàn)無(wú)效的通過(guò)任何一個(gè)特定的渠道，這并不意味著政策完全是無(wú)效的，因?yàn)橛衅渌篮推渌?jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)的相同的政策仍然可以影響經(jīng)濟(jì)。另一方面，有這么多不同的渠道，貨幣政策的運(yùn)作可以增加任何既定政策的不確定性。True. When countries fix their exchange rate, they must use m

13、onetary policy to affect the interest rate in order to maintain the exchange rate. In other words, the central bank must change the real interest rate to maintain the exchange rate, which means net exports and aggregate demand will be unaffected as long as the exchange rate peg is maintained.正確。當(dāng)國(guó)家調(diào)

14、整匯率時(shí)，他們必須使用貨幣政策來(lái)影響利率，以維持匯率。換句話(huà)說(shuō)，央行必須改變實(shí)際利率來(lái)維持匯率， 這意味著只要保持匯率掛鉤，凈出口和總需求就不會(huì)受到影響。There are four main mechanisms through which the decline in stock prices could have reduced aggregate demand and contributed to the severity of the recession. First, the decline in stock prices lowered Tobin q and might hav

15、e reduced investment spending. Second, the decline in financial wealth, as a result of the stock price decline, could have caused a drop in consumption because consumers lifetime resources were reduced. Third, the decline in stock prices lowered the value of financial assets, which increased the pub

16、lic s probability of financial distress, and so they cut back on their purchases of consumer durables and housing. Fourth, the decline in stock prices lowers the net worth of business firms, which increases adverse selection and moral hazard problems in lending and might have resulted in a reduction

17、 in lending and less investment spending.有四種主要機(jī)制，即股票價(jià)格下跌可以減少總需求，并導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的嚴(yán)重程度。首先，股票價(jià)格的下跌降低了托賓的q值，并可能減少了投資支出。其次，由于股價(jià)下跌，金融財(cái)富的下降可能導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)下降，因?yàn)橄M(fèi)者的終身資源減少了。第三，股 票價(jià)格的下跌降低了金融資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值，這增加了公眾財(cái)務(wù)困境的可能性，因此他們減少了購(gòu)買(mǎi)耐用消費(fèi)品和住房的費(fèi)用。第四，股票價(jià)格的下跌降低了商業(yè)公司的資產(chǎn)凈值，這增加了貸款的逆向選擇和道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題，并可能導(dǎo)致貸款減少和投資支出減少。False. Monetary policy can affect st

18、ock prices, which affect Tobin q and adverse selection and moral hazard problems in lending, thereby affecting investment spending. In addition, monetary policy can affect loan availability, which may influence investment spending.錯(cuò)誤。貨幣政策會(huì)影響到股票價(jià)格，影響到托賓的q和逆向選擇和貸款的道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題，從而影響投資支出。此外，貨幣政策會(huì)影響貸款的可用性，這可能會(huì)

19、影響投資支出。Stock prices will rise. The monetary easing lowers interest rates, so the yields on alternative assets to stocks, such as bonds, fall. This makes stocks more attractive, increases their demand, and hence raises their price.股票價(jià)格會(huì)上升。貨幣寬松政策降低了利率，因此替代資產(chǎn)的收益率，如債券，下跌。這使得股票更具吸引力，增加了他們的 需求，從而提高了他們的價(jià)格。

20、The lower real interest rates would stimulate investment spending because the cost of financing investments would fall. However, the stock market decline would cause the market value of firms to fall and so Tobin q tosfall. The decline in Tobinq would thes lead to a decline in investment spending.Be

21、cause the stock market and the Tobin q decline was so large, investment spending actually fell dramatically during this period.較低的實(shí)際利率會(huì)刺激投資支出，因?yàn)橥顿Y的成本會(huì)下降。然而，股市下跌會(huì)導(dǎo)致公司市值下降，因此托賓的q下跌。Tobin sq的下降將導(dǎo)致投資支出的下降。由于股票市場(chǎng)和Tobin s q的下降幅度如此之大，在這段時(shí)間里，投資支出實(shí)際上大幅下降。There are three mechanisms involving consumer expendit

22、ure. First, an expansionary monetary policy lowers interest rates and reduces the cost of financing purchases of consumer durables, and consumer durable expenditure rises. Second, an expansionary monetary policy causes stock prices and wealth to rise, leading to greater lifetime resources for consum

23、ers and causing them to increase their consumption. Third, an expansionary monetary policy that causes stock prices and the value of financial assets to rise also lowers people s probability of financial distress, so they spend more on consumer durables. 消費(fèi)者支出有三種機(jī)制。首先，擴(kuò)張性貨幣政策降低了利率，降低了購(gòu)買(mǎi)耐用消費(fèi)品的融資成本，而消

24、費(fèi)者的持久支出也隨之Chapter 25增加。第二，擴(kuò)張性的貨幣政策導(dǎo)致股票價(jià)格和財(cái)富的上升，從而為消費(fèi)者帶來(lái)更大的終身資源，并導(dǎo)致他們?cè)黾酉M(fèi)。第三，一種擴(kuò)張性的貨幣政策，導(dǎo)致股票價(jià)格和金融資產(chǎn)的增值也降低了人們的金融危機(jī)的可能性，因此他們?cè)谀陀孟M(fèi)品上花費(fèi)更多。This situation is consistent with Tobin q and the wealth effects of expansionary monetary policy. With lower interest rates, stock prices rise. Tobin q predicts that i

25、nvestment will increase, stimulating aggregate demand. In addition, with the higher stock prices, this will raise wealth, and lead to higher consumption and increased aggregate demand.這種情況與托賓的q和擴(kuò)張性貨幣政策的財(cái)富效應(yīng)相一致。隨著利率的降低，股票價(jià)格也會(huì)上漲。托賓的q預(yù)測(cè)，投資將增加，刺激總需求。此外，隨著股價(jià)上漲，這將增加財(cái)富，并導(dǎo)致更高的消費(fèi)和增加總需求。The wealth channel sug

26、gests that this type of monetary policy would raise stock prices and increase house prices, which would raise homeowners equity, and hence wealth throughshodsing anmarkets. However, even though real interest rates were low, stock values and housing wealth declined sharply, which ultimately decreased

27、 consumption and aggregate demand, suggesting monetary policy effects through the wealth channel were ineffective during the global financial crisis.財(cái)富渠道暗示，這種貨幣政策將提高股票價(jià)格，提高房屋價(jià)格，從而提高房主的權(quán)益，從而通過(guò)住房和股票市場(chǎng)獲得財(cái)富。然 而，盡管實(shí)際利率很低，但股票價(jià)值和住房財(cái)富急劇下降，最終降低了消費(fèi)和總需求，表明通過(guò)財(cái)富渠道的貨幣政策效應(yīng)在全 球金融危機(jī)期間是無(wú)效的。With an increase in bank re

28、serves, the bank lending channel predicts that deposits and loans will increase, leading to higher investment. However, the increased amount of reserves did not translate to higher lending due to perceived credit risks by lending banks. As a result, banks chose to simply hold the increased amount of

29、 reserves as excess reserves rather than loan them out, indicating that the bank lending channel of monetary policy was not operating effectively during the global financial crisis.隨著銀行準(zhǔn)備金的增加，銀行貸款渠道預(yù)計(jì)存款和貸款將會(huì)增加，從而導(dǎo)致投資增加。 然而，由于貸款銀行感知到的信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，銀行準(zhǔn)備金的增加并沒(méi)有轉(zhuǎn)化為更高的貸款。因此，銀行選擇將增加的準(zhǔn)備金作為超額準(zhǔn)備金，而不是貸出，這表明在全球金 融危機(jī)期間，

30、貨幣政策的銀行貸款渠道沒(méi)有有效運(yùn)作。Since small businesses are more dependent on bank loans than large firms, monetary policy changes that impact the availability of credit will disproportionately affect small businesses more than large firms.由于小企業(yè)比大公司更依賴(lài)銀行貸款，因此貨幣政策的變化會(huì)對(duì)小企業(yè)的影響大于大公司。There are a couple reasons why this

31、 might be true. First, bank regulations in the United States have eased, making it easier for banks to raise funds through various sources which were cumbersome under Regulation Q. The implication is that the Fed has less control over the behavior of banks in response to policy changes because of th

32、e change in regulations. In addition, there has been a worldwide decline in the traditional bank lending business, meaning the sheer size of bank lending is lower, making this channel less potent.This would lower the net worth of firms, and lead to increased adverse selection and moral hazard, ultim

33、ately resulting in lower investment. This is precisely what happened as a result of the global financial crisis.這將降低公司的凈值，并導(dǎo)致逆向選擇和道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加，最終導(dǎo)致投資減少。這正是全球金融危機(jī)的結(jié)果。It would make it more difficult for the central bank to stimulate the economy. The credit view indicates that adverse selection and moral haz

34、ard play an important part in affecting investment behavior and ultimately the economy. However, during downturns, asymmetric information problems increase, meaning that monetary policy must be more powerful to offset the contractionary effects of increases in adverse selection and moral hazard.這將使中

35、央銀行刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)變得更加困難。信用觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為逆向選擇和道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在影響投資行為和最終經(jīng)濟(jì)方面起著重要的作用。然而，在經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期，信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)問(wèn)題增多，這意味著貨幣政策必須更有力地抵消逆向選擇和道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加所帶來(lái)的收縮效 應(yīng)。Chapter 25During the Great Depression, the fall in the price level led to a significant decrease in consumer wealth and a sharp decline in consumption. The decline in prices led to an increas

36、e in real debt of more than 20%, and overall, the effect on consumers was to reduce expenditure more than 50%, and housing expenditures fell 80%.在大蕭條時(shí)期，價(jià)格水平的下降導(dǎo)致了消費(fèi)者財(cái)富的顯著下降，消費(fèi)的急劇下降。價(jià)格下降導(dǎo)致實(shí)際債務(wù)增加超過(guò)20%，總體來(lái)說(shuō)，對(duì)消費(fèi)者的影響是減少超過(guò)50%的支出，住房支出下降了 80% oThe two channels are similar in that increases in real interest

37、rates lead to lower asset prices, which lead to lower spending on consumption and housing. The difference is in how changes in asset prices lead to lower spending. Under the wealth effect, people are simply less willing to spend when wealth is lower (due to lower overall lifetime resources), leading

38、 to a reduction in spending. The household liquidity effect instead indicates a substitution effect between more liquid assets (such as cash or stocks) and less liquid assets (such as consumer durables or housing). Thus, with lower asset values, households use their resources to purchase safer, more

39、 liquid assets rather than consumption or housing, leading to lower aggregate demand.這兩種渠道的相似之處在于，實(shí)際利率的上升會(huì)導(dǎo)致資產(chǎn)價(jià)格下跌，從而導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)和住房支出減少。不同之處在于，資產(chǎn)價(jià)格 的變化會(huì)導(dǎo)致更低的支出。在財(cái)富效應(yīng)的影響下， 人們?cè)谪?cái)富較低的時(shí)候更不愿意花錢(qián)(因?yàn)榭傮w生命周期可利用的資源較低)，導(dǎo)致支出減少。而家庭流動(dòng)性效應(yīng)則表明，流動(dòng)性更強(qiáng)的資產(chǎn)(如現(xiàn)金或股票)與流動(dòng)性較差的資產(chǎn)(如耐用消費(fèi)品或住房)之間存在替代效應(yīng)。因此，隨著資產(chǎn)價(jià)值的降低，家庭使用他們的資源購(gòu)買(mǎi)更安全、更流動(dòng)的資產(chǎn)，而不

40、是消費(fèi)或住房，從而導(dǎo)致 總需求下降。(a) Lower mortgage rates should lead to higher housing prices, and raise the value of housing wealth. This should lead to a lower probability of financial distress, and raise consumer durable and housing expenditure. (b) Even though interest rates were extremely low, if nobody coul

41、d qualify for the low mortgage rates it would not have an appreciable effect on raising the value of household s financialassets (i.e housing wealth). Thus, the likelihood of financial distress would remain elevated, and not improve consumer durable and housing expenditure.(a)較低的抵押貸款利率將導(dǎo)致房?jī)r(jià)上漲，并提高住房財(cái)

42、富的價(jià)值。這將導(dǎo)致財(cái)務(wù)困境的可能性降低，并提高消費(fèi)者的耐用品 和住房支出。(b)即使利率極低，如果沒(méi)有人能夠獲得較低的抵押貸款利率，它也不會(huì)對(duì)提高家庭金融資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值產(chǎn)生明顯的 影響(例如，房產(chǎn)財(cái)富)。因此，財(cái)務(wù)困境的可能性仍然會(huì)上升，而不是改善消費(fèi)者的耐用性和住房支出。There are three main reasons why the credit view may prevail. First, there is evidence to indicate that financial frictions do significantly affect employment and sp

43、ending decisions. Second, there is evidence that small firms are hurt more by tight monetary policy than large firms, which are unlikely to be credit-constrained. Finally, asymmetric information, which is at the heart of the credit view, has wide applicability in explaining many other behavioral and

44、 economic-related concepts, so it is likely to play an important role in financial markets and monetary policy.有三個(gè)主要原因可以解釋為什么信貸觀點(diǎn)會(huì)占上風(fēng)。首先，有證據(jù)表明，金融脆弱性對(duì)就業(yè)和支出決策產(chǎn)生了重大影響。第二，有證據(jù)表明，小公司比大公司更容易受到緊縮的貨幣政策的傷害，而大公司不太可能受到信貸限制。最后，信用觀點(diǎn)的核心是 信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)，它在解釋許多其他行為和經(jīng)濟(jì)相關(guān)概念方面具有廣泛的適用性，因此它很可能在金融市場(chǎng)和貨幣政策中發(fā)揮重要作用。False. A monetary e

45、asing is associated with falling real interest rates. Even if nominal interest rates are falling, it could be the case that expected inflation decreases more, leading to an increase in real interest rates and a tighter monetary policy stance.錯(cuò)誤，貨幣寬松與實(shí)際利率下降有關(guān)。即使名義利率下降，也有可能是通脹預(yù)期下降更多，導(dǎo)致實(shí)際利率上升，貨幣政策立場(chǎng) 收緊

46、。The experience of Japan directly supports the four lessons of monetary policy discussed in the chapter. First, short-term interest rates in Japan were near zero; however, due to deflation, real interest rates remained elevated, suggesting a contractionary monetary policy stance. Secondly, if JapaneseChapter 254 / 5pol