了解孟加拉國清潔烹飪技術(shù)的市場解決方案和融資選擇

1、ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThe financial and technical support of the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) is gratefully acknowledged. ESMAP is a partnership between the World Bank and 19 partners to help low- and middle-income countries reduce poverty and boost growth through sustainable energy

2、solutions.ESMAPs analytical and advisory services are fully integrated within the World Banks country financing and policy dialogue in the energy sector. Through the World Bank Group (WBG), ESMAP works to accelerate the energy transition required to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7) to e

3、nsure wide access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and clean energy for all. It helps to shape WBG strategies and programs to achieve the targets of the WBG Climate Change Action Plan.This report is a joint effort between the Clean Cooking Alliance (herein “the Alliance”) and the Bangladesh Clea

4、n Cooking Program, co-funded by the World Bank and the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and implemented by Infrastructure Development Company Limited (IDCOL) as part of the Rural Electrification and Renewable Energy Development II (RERED II) Project.The report summarizes findings from an assessment of the c

5、urrent clean-cooking market in Bangladesh and identifies strategies and interventions to facilitate clean-cooking solutions. Innovision Consulting Private Limited was tasked with this assignment to capture findings from past research and from the experiences of different clean-cooking programs in Ba

6、ngladesh.Subsequently, Jichong Wu (Consultant, World Bank) led the editing work, with inputs in the report based on secondary research, interviews, and field visits. This report amalgamates those findings and provides recommendations on scaling up clean cooking in the country and strengthening the m

7、arket mainly through the IDCOL Improved Cookstove (ICS) Program.Inputs from Ms. Salima Jahan (Member, Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority (SREDA), Bangladesh) helped to explain SREDAs vision on possible development pathways for achieving clean cooking and contextualizing the findi

8、ngs from this assessment.We would like to acknowledge the support of IDCOL and in particular the IDCOL ICS teamA. F. M. Shahed (AVP and Unit Head, ICS Program, IDCOL) provided detailed information on the implementation mechanisms of the ICS program across Bangladesh and shared valuable insights on t

9、he ground realities and nuances of the Bangladesh clean-cooking market.We would also like to thank Yabei Zhang (ESMAP) for her expert opinion, Joonkyung Seong (World Bank) and Asna Towfiq (the Alliance) for their support toward in making this report a reality.Finally, the editing and production supp

10、ort of Heather Austin is gratefully acknowledged.TANUJA BHATTACHARJEE SREYAMSA BAIRIGANJANOn behalf of Bangladesh Clean Cooking Program, RERED IICONTENTS HYPERLINK l _TOC_250028 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 2ACRONYMS 6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250027 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 81 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250026 STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT 1

11、3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250025 INTRODUCTION 14 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250024 1. Background 14 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250023 1. 2. Objective 14 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250022 1. 3. Methodology 142 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250021 1. 4. Limitations 15 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250020 THE COOKSTOVE MARKET IN BANGLADESH 16Market Overview 16 HYP

12、ERLINK l _TOC_250019 Clean Cooking Initiatives 17 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250018 Natural Gas and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) 18Improved Cookstove (ICS) 21 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250017 Others 223 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250016 Key Stakeholders 27UNDERSTANDING CONSUMERS OF THE CLEAN COOKING MARKETS 28 HYPERLINK l _TOC

13、_250015 Consumer Segmentation 28 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 Graduation process 31 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 Consumer willingness to pay and baseline situation 344 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 Economic and technical feasibility 37 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 IDCOL ICS PROGRAM 37 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 Cookstoves

14、38 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 Business model of the POs 395Creating Sustainable Demand for ICS 43 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 ACCESS TO FINANCE 48 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 Investment and returns for households 48 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Access to finance needed for both households and POs 49 HYPERLINK l _TO

15、C_250005 5.4. Challenges for access to finance 49 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT 50 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 RECOMMENDATIONS 51 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 CONCLUSION 58 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 ANNEXES 59 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Annex 1: IWA guidelines and ISO International Standard 59List

16、of tablesTable 1: Bangladesh Natural Gas Production 19Table 2: Annual LPG import permit dataobtained from BERC (MT) 21Table 3: Import permit of LPG given by BERCand quantity of LPG imported 21Table 4: Biogas methane yield according tobiomass utilized 26Table 5:Table 6:Total number of biogas digester

17、s installed and their capacitiesBiogas installation by different organization27for the last 10 years (20082018)27Table 7:Willingness to pay for Portable 8” with insulation and lining cookstove34Table 8:Willingness to pay for Double mouth chimney stove34Table 9:Price comparison between Advanced ICS a

18、nd LPG35Table 10:Willingness to pay for Advanced ICS35Table 11:Additional Stove according to consumer segment36Table 12:IDCOL ICS along with the approved selling prices38Table 13:Comparison between IDCOL approved price, selling price, production cost and grant for promotion39Table 14:Summary data on

19、 private ICS designers and manufacturers41Table 15:Annual fuel cost using traditionalmud stove with 15% thermal efficiency44Table 16:Annual fuel cost using a single mouth portable ICS with 30% efficiency44Table 17: Production cost of one PortableSingle Mouth ICS. 45Table 18: Total return per month f

20、rom distributionof 500 Portable Single Mouth ICS 45Table 19: Year on year return on distributionof Portable single mouth ICS 45Table 20: Time for return of investment 46Table 21: Cookstove high-performance criteria 58Table 22: ISO Voluntary Performance Targets 58List of tablesFigure 1: Steps in meth

21、odology 14Figure 2: Sector wise gas consumption(2016-2017)19Figure 3: ICS types selected by the beginning of IDCOL ImprovedCookstove (ICS) Program 23Figure 4: Latest list of IDCOL ICS 24Figure 5: Types of cookstoves according tonumber of households 28Figure 6: Consumer Segmentation 32Figure 7: Energ

22、y Ladder (Perfect Substitution) 33Figure 8: Energy Stacking (Overlapping) 33Figure 9: Stove Stacking 33Figure 10: Total Time from production toreception of grant 39Figure 11 Stakeholder Map for ICS 40Figure 12: Benefit trickle down map ofIDCOL-PO-customer 42EXECUTIVE SUMMARYEXECUTIVESUMMARYTogether

23、with air pollution, exposure to smoke from open fires during the burning of inefficient fuels the primary means of cooking and heating for nearly three billion people in the developing world causes almost 4 million premature deaths annually and contributes to a range of chronic illnesses and other a

24、cute health impacts such as early-childhood pneumonia, emphysema, cataracts, lung cancer, bronchitis, cardiovascular disease, and low birth weight.About 82 percent of Bangladeshs population relies on traditional mud stoves and solid fuel such as wood, coal, dry leaves, and crop residue for cooking.T

25、he burning of plant or animal material used as fuel (biomass) leads to environmental degradation from increased pressure on natural resources and forces people, especially women and children, to spend many hours every week collecting wood and other biofuel materials. Additionally, inefficient cookin

26、g produces greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide and methane, and aerosols such as black carbon, contributing to adverse climate change. The burning of solid fuel also puts a strain on animal life in the region and on other natural resources.Women and young children spend a significant am

27、ount of time near cooking areas, inhaling pollutants from traditional stoves. Women who use traditional stoves are particularly vulnerable to high levels of exposure to householdair pollution (HAP): they are twice as likely to develop chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) than women who use c

28、leaner stoves.Given the severity of the health and environmental problems associated with the overuse of biomass, several development partners and donor organizations have been working in Bangladesh with the government to promote cleaner, more efficient cooking solutions. Initiatives date back to th

29、e Bangladesh governments efforts to develop improved cookstoves (ICSs) during the 1970s and 1980s. Subsequently, NGOs such as Village Education Resource Center (VERC), German Corporation for International Cooperation (GIZ), and Grameen Shakti started to popularize ICS technology and other clean-cook

30、ing solutions such as biogas. These efforts gained further momentum when Infrastructure Development Company Limited (IDCOL) launched its “ICS Program” in 2013.10# of hh 2020# of hh 2030 - high range# of hh 2030 - low rangeTraditional Stove29.0m (74%)Natural gas StoveLPG Stove4.4m (11%)5.5m (13-14%)3

31、.3m (9%)23-27m (55-65%)3-4.5m (8-10%)Electric Stove1.0m (2%)Other (Pellets, 0.1m (0%)biogas, etc.)1m (2-3%)# of household (million)16-21m (38-50%)Type of StoveFigure A: Bangladesh cookstoves and fuels market overview, present vs 2030 targetsThe Clean Cooking Alliance (CCA) has been active in Banglad

32、esh since 2012. In 2013, they convened stakeholder consultations todevelop and launch the Bangladesh Country Action Plan for Clean Cookstoves (CAP) led by the Power Division of the governments Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources. In May 2018,the government held a CAP review workshop to e

33、nsure the realignment of CAP 2013 with thenew changes and developments in Bangladesh. As a result, a renewed CAP the National Action Plan for Clean Cooking (20202030) was launched with the goal of achieving 100 percent clean-cooking adoption throughout Bangladesh by 2030 (SREDA 2019).This assessment

34、 brings together learning from recent studies and experiences and expects to help CCA and the World Bank lookat prospective strategies with a focus of access to finance and incentive options for scaling upclean cooking in Bangladesh. The market assessment examined clean-cooking solutions across the

35、technology spectrum, including natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and ICSs given their popularity among Bangladeshihouseholds. Other solutions include biogas, solar cookers, and electric stoves, including induction stoves, rice cookers, and electric pressure cookers.Today, 74 percent of the

36、 total population of Bangladesh still rely on traditional stoves, followedby natural gas (11 percent), LPG (9 percent), ICSs (7 percent), and electric stoves (2 percent).Considering the higher costs and the need to further develop the supply infrastructure of other clean-cooking technologies, ICSs h

37、ave the largest market potential and should be prioritized for policy makers.Recent studies have found that 74 percent of ICS-adopter households are simultaneously using other stoveand cooking technologies. This common practice of stove and fuel stacking also makes ICSs a good option in the transiti

38、on to cleaner stoves and fuels because most rural households, which account for 80 percent of Bangladeshs population, will continue to rely on biomass as their primary fuel for cooking.ICS distribution is projected to grow from its current level of 2.7 million households to 1621 million in 2030. LPG

39、 stoves, the second-largest potential market, is estimatedto increase from 3.3 million to 2327 million households in the new National Action Plan for Clean Cooking 20202030.Despite a smaller market share, electric stoves, including induction cookers, rice cookers, and pressure cookers have a good op

40、portunity because of their convenience and high popularity among consumers. With Bangladesh very close to 100 percent electricity coverage, it will not be a surprise if the adoption2.7m (7%)ICSUnderstanding market-based solutions and access to finance options for clean-cooking technologies in bangla

41、desh 11EXECUTIVE SUMMARYExperimental Group (Current Customers) - cash Experimental Group (Current Customers) - loanControl Group (Potential Customers) - cash Control Group (Potential Customers) - loan2500Stove Price (BDT)20001500100050000510152025303540Willingness to Pay (% of respondents)Figure B:

42、ICS Consumer Willingness to Pay Analysisof electric stoves rises sharply.It may even extend well beyond projections because the availability and reliability of the countrys power supply continues to improve, and electric stoves prices are expected to drop over the next decade.The World Bank-funded I

43、CS program implemented by IDCOLis the countrys largest. As of Dec 2020, over 2.46 million cookstoves have been distributed underthe program. It has successfully attracted the involvement of 61 partner organizations (POs) in the cookstoves sector, generatingemployment in decentralized stove productio

44、n facilities in 300 upazilas (subdistricts) of Bangladesh so far.The POs promote IDCOL-approved ICSs to the rural community,and the program reimburses the POs for their marketing and promotional costs.Technological progress has been impressive. At the start of the IDCOL ICS program, in 2013, the the

45、rmal efficiency of most available stovesCash vsLoan2500Stove Price (BDT)2000150010005000Experiment Group (Current Customers)Control Group (Potential Customers)Figure C: Bubble chart of payment preferences, cas vs installment loans12in Bangladesh was Tier 1. With a total tax incidence of more than 58

46、 percent, the high prices of Tier 2 or better stoves from abroad put them out of reach for many. Butthrough IDCOLs committed R&D, the efficiency of the programs stoves has impressively risen from Tier 1 to Tier 3 in a matter of seven short years.Furthermore, the engineering design of these stoves is

47、 straightforwardenough that they can be manufactured in decentralized subdistrict level production centers using local resources. Prices vary from BDT 375 to BDT 1600 (USD 4to USD 19), offering a wide range of affordability.With new joint funding from the World Bank and the Green Climate Fund (GCF),

48、 a four-year clean- cooking program is underway. Itaims to provide access to clean- cooking solutions to 5 million additional households by 2023 in part fulfillment of the countrys new 2030 target of universal adoption of clean-cooking technologies.Consumer segmentation is a helpful tool to better u

49、nderstand customer preferences and market potential so that tailored marketing and intervention strategies can be100755025Households %0-25-50-75Less smokefaster cooking time Fuel savingLess enironmental polution Other likedProduce smokeAsh and residues formed under the pot Didnt like or not convenie

50、ntChimney is missing - PO didnt provideShape of the stove opening isnt feasible/suitable Cannot cook in large potsCertain foods take longer to cook Cannot use large pieces of firewood Requires too much maintenance Food does not taste goodToo expensiveAlready using a clean stove Other-disliked-100Cur

51、rent user- likedCurrent user- issuesLost customerNon-adopter in IDCOLProgram villagesNon-adopter in non-IDCOL Program villagesFigure D: Consumer feedback of the problems of ICSs (by consumer group)Understanding market-based solutions and access to finance options for clean-cooking technologies in ba

52、ngladesh 13EXECUTIVE SUMMARYdeveloped to effectively drive sales and adoption, and scaled up in other regions. Using consumer data from recent studies, households have been grouped into current ICS users and potential customers in a bubble-chart analysis, below. The size and position of the bubbles

53、represent customers purchasing power and interest in selected stove products. The data canhelp businesses develop pricing strategies and identify financing and incentive options.To understand customers willingness to pay, we looked at a baseline survey undertaken byIDCOL. The trend of preferring cas

54、h payment for portable single-mouth ICSs was similar within the surveys treatment and control groups. The highest percentage of willingness to pay in installments was for high- end ICSs for both the treatment and control groups. For example, this chart below shows clearly that for a more expensive s

55、tove model, surprisingly, both ICS-adoptersand non-ICS adopters favored an installment payment plan to buy it (top line, orange circle size larger than blue circle) while for cheaper stoves they all preferred paying with cash. Similar data should be collected on a large scale; this will provide usef

56、ul insights for policy makers to develop consumerfinancing mechanisms for the clean- cooking sector.On user and potential customer feedback, among current ICS users, fuel-saving (32 percent) and timesaving (32 percent) were the top-two “most liked” options for using ICSs with the most positive feedb

57、ack, followed by less smoke (19 percent) and health benefit (6 percent). “Cant use large pieceof firewood” was a common complaint across all four consumer groups, across potential customers within IDCOLs ICS Program villagecoverage (34 percent), and across potential customers outside IDCOLs ICS Prog

58、ram village coverage (18 percent). Other common complaints and issues included “cant cookwith large pot,” “l(fā)onger cooking time,” “ash residues after cooking,” and “require too much time on maintenance.” Stove businesses should collect more of these data and use the findings to address product design

59、 defects.On marketing and promotional activities, door-to-door (90.9percent), word-of-mouth (84.5 percent), billboards or posters (61.1 percent), and brochures (60.5 percent) were the most effective marketing strategies that have convinced ICS purchasers (amongICS-adopters), while word-of-mouth, bil

60、lboards or posters, and brochures were the top-3 most effective marketing activities for potential customers, the so-called control group in this study.Based on a literature review and the latest data, four consumer segments were identified with high market potential, and specific intervention strat