世界液化天然氣報(bào)告2021

1、Sponsored byKnowledge PartnerComprehensive suite of products and advisory services covering global gas and LNG marketsGranular data providing a comprehensive overview of production assets, country and sector specific demand, international pipeline gas and LNG trade, economic and financial field and

2、infrastructure data, contract data, company asset ownership, LNG vessels, as well as long-term price forecasts for the main global trading hubs.Comprehensive reports and commentaries covering gas market supply and demand, coal-to-gas competition, international gas and LNG trade, energy transition as

3、 well as macroeconomic analysis with price forecast.Extensive advisory services on gas and LNG markets, including gas market assessments, commodity pricing, gas infrastructure due diligence and benchmarking of gas assets.CALGARYHOUSTONNEW YORKLESUNDOSLOMOSCOW STAVANGERABERDEEN LONDONISTANBULDUBAIBEI

4、JINGSHANGHAITOKYOBANGALOREKUALA LUHPUR SINGAPORE JAKARTARIO DE JANEIROPERTHSYDNEYIGU World LNG report - 2021 Edition2ENERGY KNOWLEDGE HOUSERystad Energy is an independent energy research and market intelligence company providing data, tools, analytics and consultancy services to the global energy in

5、dustry. Our products and services cover energy funda- mentals and the global and regional upstream, oilfield services and renewable energy industries, tailored to analysts, managers and execu- tives alike.3IGU World LNG report - 2021 Edition45Impact of COVID-19 on the LNG IndustryLNG tradeLiquefacti

6、onRegasificationShipping121. State of the LNG Industry9Message from the President of the International Gas Union7Table of ContentsLNG TradeOverviewLNG Exports by MarketLNG Imports by MarketLNG Interregional Trade18LNG and Gas PricingAsia-Pacific LNG Market Price TrendsAtlantic LNG Market Price Trend

7、sCrude Oil Market Price Trends30Liquefaction PlantsOverviewGlobal Liquefaction Capacity and UtilisationLiquefaction Capacity by MarketLiquefaction TechnologiesFloating Liquefaction (LNG-FPSOS)Risks to Project DevelopmentUpdate on New Liquefaction Plays38LNG ShippingOverviewLNG CarriersFloating Stora

8、ge and Regasification UnitOwnership (FSRUs)2020 LNG OrderbookVessel Costs and Delivery ScheduleCharter MarketFleet Voyages and Vessel UtilisationNear Term Shipping Developments58LNG Receiving TerminalsOverviewReceiving Terminal Capacity and Global UtilisationReceiving Terminal Capacity and Utilisati

9、on by MarketReceiving Terminal LNG Storage CapacityReceiving Terminal Berthing CapacityFloating and Offshore RegasificationReceiving Terminals with Reloading and Transshipment Capabilities78Natural Gas (LNG & CNG) as Fuel for Marine and Road TransportationMarine LNG Bunkering InfrastructureOnshore L

10、NG & CNG Fueling InfrastructureLNG & CNG Demand as a Transportation Fuel94References used in 2021 EditionData CollectionDefinitionsRegions and BasinsAcronymsUnitsConversion FactorsDiscrepancies in Data vs. Previous IGU LNG Reports104AppendicesTable of Global Liquefaction PlantsTable of Liquefaction

11、Plants Sanctioned or Under ConstructionTable of Global Active LNG Fleet, Year-End 2019Table of Global LNG Vessel Orderbook, Year- End 2019Table of Global LNG Receiving TerminalsTable of LNG Receiving Terminals Under Construction106Message from the President of the International Gas UnionMESSAGE FROM

12、 THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL GAS UNIONDear colleagues,Last year I wrote my message amidst great challenges, as the initial implications of the COVID-19 pandemic started to surface. It was hard to imagine then that a year later, the pandemic would still be raging and continuing to impact all a

13、spects of our daily lives, including LNG and the wider global gas markets. Yet that is where we are.I also wrote about hope for a stronger and more united future, and my optimism today is stronger than ever. Not in the least because the world has shown remarkable resilience and comradery. Together,

14、we found light amid darkness thanks to the tireless efforts, courage, and steadfast dedication of those who continued to work throughout this crisis on the front lines, risking their lives to save others. It is hard to find the right words to express the depth of my gratitude to them.The gas industr

15、y too has held its own. Despite having to overcome many challenges in supply chain management, maintenance and commercial matters, reliable supply of gas continued uninterrupted. This demonstrates the incredible resilience, flexibility and reliability of the gas sector in bringing secure, clean, and

16、 modern energy whenever and wherever it is needed, even with significant parts of the world affected by lockdowns or restrictions.It is because of our industrys frontline those who run the production plants and terminals, sail ships, manage pipelines and ports - that the lights stayed on, buildings

17、were heated or cooled, families were able to prepare meals, medical professionals were able to treat patients, and the world was able to switch to working remotely, seamlessly.I am very proud of our industry for navigating through this crisis and for offeringa sustainable pathway to recovery.However

18、, we shouldnt forget that the pandemic has come at a great cost to economies, societies and the industry at large. Unfortunately, the greatest costs befell the worlds most vulnerable, including those who still lack access to clean and modern energy.Gas, including LNG, is an abundant, clean, accessib

19、le and versatile energy form that is not only a substitute to more polluting energy sources, but also a fuel that can deliver access to modern energy to those who lack it.Coal-to-gas switching has already saved over 600 MT of CO2 over the last decade1, more than the annual emissions of all but the s

20、even largest global economies, and further fuel switching has the potential to remove almost tenfold more.2 The natural gas industry is also ready to accommodate more decarbonisation, renewable gas, and hydrogen in the coming decade, enablingfurther reductions in emissions. This will be essential to

21、 maintaining energy security and meeting the worlds growing energy and sustainable economic development needs, without compromising on the goals of the Paris Agreement.IGU members continue to work diligently to minimise methane emissions, a key priority for the sector. We are a supporting organisati

22、on to the Methane Guiding Principles, and we encourage all our members and representatives of the global gas industry to measure, document, report, and reduce methane emissions. It is a safety requirement; it makes good commercial sense, but beyond that, it is an opportunity to enable gas to play a

23、role in the energy transition as a cleaner and reliable energy source.Turning back to the LNG markets and the findings we present to you in this report. This years global LNG trade increased to 356.1 MT3, a small increase of 1.4 MT versus 2019, but another year of consecutive growth in LNG trade des

24、pite COVID-19 related impacts on the supply and demand sides. This was mostly supported by increased exports from the USA and Australia, together adding 13.4 MT of exports. Asia Pacific and Asia again imported the most volumes in 2020, together accounting for more than 70% of global LNG imports. Asi

25、a also accounted for the largest growth in imports in 2020 adding 9.5 MT of net LNG imports versus 2019.Global LNG market pricing experienced a turbulent year. Spot prices of cargoes trading in the Atlantic and Asia Pacific basins plummeted to record lows in the first six months, before reaching rec

26、ord highs at the start of 2021. Pricing responded to COVID-19 impacts on demand, an initially well-supply market, and high storage levels in some markets, followed by a cold winter and shipping constraints.While 20 MTPA in liquefaction capacity was brought onstream in 2020, all in the United States,

27、 start-up of several liquefaction trains in Russia, Indonesia, the United States and Malaysia were delayed as a result of the pandemic. The only project that was sanctioned in 2020 was the 3.25 MTPA Energia Costa Azul facility in Mexico, and early 2021 Qatar took FID on four expansion trains totalli

28、ng 32 MTPA. With additional new projects proposed, global pre-FID volumes stand at 892.4 MTPA, most of which are in North America.With 35 new vessels added to the LNG shipping fleet in 2020, the total number of active vessels reached 572 at the end 2020, including 37 FSRUs and 4 FSUs. Notably, with

29、the exception of one, all new vessels are equipped with membrane containment systems, and 23 of them feature X-DF propulsion systems. Membrane containment systems capitalise on improved fuel efficiencies and lower emissions. The number of LNG voyages, however, only increased by 1%, largely due to de

30、mand impact of COVID-19.Global regasification capacity increased by 19 MTPA in 2020, bringing the total to 850.1 MTPA as of February 2021. Four new terminals and four expansion projects at existing terminals started importing cargoes with the majority in the Asia Pacific region. There are now 39 mar

31、kets that are equipped with LNG receiving capabilities4. As of February 2021 there was 147.3 MTPA of regasification capacity under construction, of which 72.3 MTPA have communicated start-up dates in 2021, some of which is in new importing markets such as Ghana, El Salvador, Vietnam and Nicaragua. O

32、ffshore regasification capacity increased by 5.6 MTPA, bringing the global floating and offshore regasification capacity to 115.5 MTPA as of February 2021.In conclusion, the ongoing global health and economic crisis reminded us that access to energy is critical to keeping people safe and societies f

33、unctioning: from hospitals and intensive care units, to vaccine manufacture and delivery, and remote work.LNG and gas are key to unlocking access to secure, clean, and modern energy. Today, it can immediately reduce emissions, improve quality of life, health, and clean air by replacing coal, oil, an

34、d conventional biomass; and tomorrow, it will be the key pathway to decarbonisation as we add more renewable gas, hydrogen, and CCS.As the world leaders plan for recovery from COVID-19 and realign their investments in energy transition plans to a path consistent with the Paris Agreement and Sustaina

35、ble Development Goals, the gas industry stands ready to support them in this challenge.LNG will continue to play a key role by bringing affordable, clean energy to theworld.Yours faithfully,We offer more and cleaner energy solutions across a global portfolio of gas, power and environmental products

36、to meet your changing energy needs.Joe M. KangPresident of the International Gas UnionLearn more about us at HYPERLINK /shellenergy /shellenergy1 IEA, The Role of Gas in Todays Energy Transition. HYPERLINK /reports/the-role-of-gas-in-todays-energy-transitions) 2019 (/reports/the-role-of-gas-in-today

37、s-energy-transitions)2 IGU, BCG. Gas Technology and Innovation for a Sustainable Future HYPERLINK /resources/gas-technology-and-innovation-for-a-sustainable-future/) . 2020 (/resources/gas-technology-and-innovation-for-a-sustainable-future/)3 GIIGNL74 The total number of markets excludes those with

38、only small-scale (0.5 MTPA) regasification capacity such as Finland, Malta, Norway, and Sweden. It includes markets with large regasification capacity that only consume domestically produced cargoes, such as Indonesia.IGU World LNG report - 2021 Edition8IGU World LNG report - 2021 EditionThe Task Fo

39、rce dedicates this edition of the IGU World LNG Report to Geoff Hunter in recognition of his tireless work and support for the IGU World LNG Report. The recent loss of Geoff has been well felt across the efforts of the Task Force.State of the Industry1. State of the IndustryLNG carrier ARISTOS I - C

40、ourtesy of Capital GasTradeLiquefaction Plants capacity, End of 2020452.9MTPAGlobal liquefaction 356.1 MT1Global LNG Trade in 2020LNG T4 (0.9 MTPA), Sengkang LNG T1 (0.5 MTPA), PortovayaRegasification Terminals 850.1MTPAGlobal nominalregasification capacity, Feb. 2021MTPA, despite several terminals

41、with planned start-up in 2020Floating and Offshore Regasification 115.5MTPAGlobal Floating and Offshore Regasifiction Capacity, Feb 2021 Acu Port in Brazil. In January 2021, Croatia commissioned itsLNG T1 (1.5 MTPA), Corpusbeing delayed to 2021. Thisfirst LNG import facility throughGlobal LNG trade

42、increased to 356.1 MT, a small increase of 1.4 MT versus 2019, but another year of consecutive growth in LNG trade despite COVID-19 related impacts on the supply and demand sides. This was mostly supported by increased exports from the USA and Australia, together adding 13.4 MT of exports. Asia Paci

43、fic and Asia again imported the most volumes in 2020, together accounting for more than 70% of global LNG imports. Asia also accounted for the largest growth in imports in 2020 adding 9.5 MT of net LNG imports versus 2019.Global liquefaction capacity continued to grow in 2020, adding 20.0 MTPA of ca

44、pacity last year to reach 452.9 MTPA. The liquefaction projects that came online in 2020 were Freeport LNG T2-T3 (10.2 MTPA), Cameron LNG T2-T3 (8.0 MTPA) and ElbaIsland T4-T10 (1.75 MTPA), all of which are located in the United States. Several projects with planned start-up of commercial operations

45、 in 2020 were delayed to 2021 amid the COVID-19 pandemic. These include YamalChristi LNG T3 (4.5 MTPA) and Petronas PFLNG Dua (1.5 MTPA). The average global utilisation rate in 2020 was 74.6%, with December 2020 drawing most attention, as soaring Asian and European LNG prices drove utilisation rates

46、 to record heights in certain export markets, such as the US. This came on the heels of the preceding period when it appears nearly 160 cargoes were cancelled between April and November 2020, with the majority of these cancellations taking place between June and August a seasonally softer period for

47、 gas demand. As of February 2021, 139.1 MTPA of liquefaction capacity was under construction or sanctioned for development, but only 8.9 MTPA of that overall capacity increase is expected to come online in 2021. Energa Costa Azul LNG T1 (3.25 MTPA), located in Baja California, Mexico, was the only l

48、iquefaction project sanctioned in 2020. Hence, last year resulted in one of the lowest levels of sanctioned liquefaction capacity seen in recent years.Global regasification capacity has increased to 850.1 MTPA as of February 2021, following capacity additions of 19.0 MTPA in 2020. For three consecut

49、ive years, total regasification capacity additions were lower than additions in liquefaction capacity. 4 new regasification terminals entered commercial operations, and 4 expansion projects at existing terminals were successfully completed during 2020.The Asia-Pacific region continues to experience

50、strong demand growth. China, Chinese Taipei, India and Myanmar added significantregasification capacity in 2020, totalling 12.9was largely a direct result of the COVID-19 outbreak, which caused worldwide supply chain disruptions along with potential delays in investments and permitting processes. As

51、 of February 2021, 39 markets are equipped with LNG receiving capabilities.With the rise in global LNG trade, regasification capacity additions are anticipated to occur in established regions as well as new import markets. Two new markets Myanmar and Croatia joined the ranks of LNG importers over th

52、e past year. As of February 2021, 147.3 MTPA of new regasification capacity is under construction, including19 new onshore terminals, 10 FSRUs and eight expansion projects at existing terminals. By year-end 2021, 72.3 MTPA of additional regasification capacity is set to come online through newbuild

53、terminals and expansion projects at existing terminals. Notably, this could include new importers such as Ghana, El Salvador, Vietnam, and Nicaragua.Regasification capacity at operational offshore terminals grew by 5.6 MTPA in 2020 through the construction of one new floating terminal ata 1.9 MTPA F

54、SRU deployed at the Krk LNG terminal. As of February 2021, floating and offshore regasification capacity worldwide has reached 115.5 MTPA at 27 terminals. Another10 floating and offshore regasification terminals are currently under construction, representing a further 33.4 MTPA once commissioned. Se

55、ven offshore/floating terminals are scheduled to enter service by year-end 2021, including new importers Ghana, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Established markets are also expanding their regasification capabilities through the chartering of FSRUs Brazil commissioned two FSRU- based LNG import terminals

56、 in the past two years, and India is expected to bring its first FSRU- based terminal into service in the first quarter of 2021, thereby giving the market both onshore and floating regasification capabilities. Furthermore, at least five additional FSRUs (including conversions) were in the order book

57、 as of February 2021.Proposed New Liquefaction Plants892.4MTPAProposed aspirational liquefaction capacity in pre-FID stage,Feb. 2021 worlds largest LNG project, which will raise Qatars LNG production capacity from 77 MTPA to 110 MTPA. The project involves the construction of four new LNG mega-trains

58、 with a capacity of 8 MTPA each. With the NFE project progressing, this will reposition Qatar as the world leader in terms of liquefaction capacity, overtaking Australia who currently has the most liquefaction capacity. The COVID-19 pandemic, whichShipping 572VesselsLNG fleet,end-2020 Demand reducti

59、ons stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, alongside a mild winter at the start of 2020, resulted in a relatively low growth of only 1% in the number of LNG voyages, compared to 0.4% growth in LNG Trade. Charter rates started the year at US$70,000 per day for steam turbine, US$90,000 for TFDE and US$1

60、05,000 for X-DF/ ME-GI vessels, before sliding towards US$20,000 for steam turbine, US$30,000 for TFDECurrently, 892.4 MTPA of aspirationalliquefaction capacity is in the pre-FID stage, the majority of which is in the United States and Canada. Africa has 103.9 MTPA of proposed liquefaction capacity