2020航空洞察趨勢報(bào)告

1、The Cirium Airline Insights Review 20202 | Airlines worldwide struggled to match their schedules with travel demand, performing surgery as close as four weeks before travel.Many large widebodies were retired sooner than anticipatedwhile the 737 Max finally returned to the skies at year-end.Cargo was

2、 a bright spotearning airlines precious revenuewith many airlines converting passenger aircraft to carry cargo.Airlines and their airport partners had better on-time performance than ever before, but not for reasons they anticipated.Confident travelers flew domestically, adjusting to new travel meas

3、ures. Many travelers received travel credits and vouchers, and business travelers stopped flying.The question on everyones mind: how quickly will the industry recover? And what will it look like when it does?4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 From Ciriums chief executive officer8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 The On

4、-Time Performance Review 202012 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Flights flown: the year in review15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 The Cirium On-Time Performance Board17 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Outlook from the OTP BoardThe US airline passenger outlook for 2021 by Henry HarteveldtReshaped tourism sector to emerge by

5、Dr Mario Hardy2020: the end of airline industry data silos by Mike Malik24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Airline Insights 202037 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Industry voicesThe path to aviation industry recovery by Richard EvansEuropean LCCs feel the strain by David WhiteShifting sands: matching flight schedule

6、capacity with demand by Will LivseyAirlines go big on early retirements by Michael Gubisch Asia-Pacific lights aviations path to recovery by Simin Ngai Greener on the other side by Andrew DoyleCabin cargo: a bright spot by James MellonThe changing trading dynamics for lessors by Max Kingsley-JonesCh

7、inas lessors spread their wings by Michael AllenThe return of the Boeing 737 Max by Max Kingsley-Jones HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 All the data thats fit to print HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Appendix: Usage and attribution HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Appendix: Glossary of termsIn 2020, everyone was on time. Heres

8、the bigger storyJeremy BowenChief executive officer CiriumThis time last year, we announced the airlines and airports with the best on-time performance in 2019. Ciriums model for on-time performance is watched closely and widely reported. It is the gold standard. Our teams painstakingly analyze data

9、 from more than 600 sources to judge the airlines of the world.The 2019 best performing mainline airlines globally were Aeroflot, ANA and Delta Air Lines, respectively. At airline headquarters around the world, teams no doubt rallied to find ways to improve their performance and looked forward to a

10、solid 2020.This yearas you undoubtedly know first-hand the story is different.The airlines were largely on time in 2020. A shame for the traveling public, airlines and aviation firms worldwide who didnt benefit from it. The factors that cause delayscongested airspace, taxiways or even a Captain pati

11、ently waiting for connecting passengerssimply did not exist in 2020.Travel and tourism accounts for more than 10% of global GDP and is an industry that drives the business and leisure economy. The industry has been hit hard. Our data shows that globalpassenger airline traffic in 2020 was reduced to

12、1999 levels. That means that some 21 years of growth was wiped out in a matter of months.Worse, though: many of us have suffered personal tragedy as a direct result of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and for that I am sorry.What follows in this report is a retrospective on 2020. I hope that it will b

13、ecome an annual tradition, just like The Cirium On-Time Performance Review.Our team considered the impact of a well- trodden scheduling system thrown into chaos. Still others considered the impact of fleet retirement. From sustainability to cargo, what follows are excellent insights from a talented

14、team supported by The Cirium Core, a very deep and very wide data lake.Data is our strength. The pandemic challenged airlines like never before, and real-time data became indispensable. Data illuminates.So Id like to spend some time reviewing the insights from the year and discuss seven trends that

15、Cirium envisions for 2021.First, lets review the precipitous decline in flight schedules and the rapid increase in cancelations, that first shook Asia before challenging the rest of the world.The first peak of cancelations (in yellow) occurred in February as a result of the closures in Asia. The fol

16、low-on effect was closures in the rest of the world as the virus spread. Flights fell off a cliff (in green).The airlines couldnt adjust their schedules quickly enough and so a second peak in cancelations occurred in March and April. That big gap in white between completed flights this year and the

17、black line? Thats theGlobal passenger flight disruption 2020Scheduled flights 2019Flights not flown 2020Completed flights 2020120,000 100,00080,000Number of flights60,00040,00020,0000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec202020202020202020202020202020202020202020202020Source: Cirium Core, schedules an

18、d flights tracked data, date filed December 21 2020incredible drop in flights from 2019 levels when daily scheduled passenger flights were at over 100,000 per day.Flights started to recover in June but only in domestic markets. The northern hemispheres summer, Chinas recovery and relaxed travel rest

19、rictions alleviated some of the strain and passenger flights returned anew, albeit at still record lows.Unfortunately, a second wave of COVID-19 cases hit Europe and North America and the recovery plateaued. This was offset somewhat with travel during key travel periods such as the Golden Week in Ch

20、ina and Thanksgiving in the US.Thanksgiving is usually the peak US travel period of the year and despite the slight uptick based on previous months, passenger flights were still down 36% year-over-year.As you can see, there are miles to go to return to 2019 levels particularly as international trave

21、l is significantly down. At the recent International Air Transport Association (IATA) annual general meeting, it was predicted that the number of flying passengers would not return to 2019levels until 2024. That is one of the more optimistic scenarios.There were some positives however. Only 10% of t

22、he A320neo aircraft are currently in storage, with domestic travel returning first. Carriers welcomed the opportunity to return newer aircraft, especially the A321neo workhorse to the skies. They are more fuel efficient, used for short- and long-haul routes, and likely to be further away from thenex

23、t maintenance check. It explains why airlines were keen to see the Boeing 737 Max return.Nevertheless, some 30% of the global passenger fleet remains in storage and those aircraft in service are flying significantly fewer hours.Aircraft are one part of the story but balance sheets are another. IATA

24、reported that airlines have added $220 billion of debt to their balance sheets through the crisis. By the end of June, it was reported that airlines had only about eight and a half months of cash left (as a median) and so cash burn will be a critical factor for airline survivability moving in to 202

25、1. IATAare forecasting that the industry as a whole is projected to turn cash positive in late 2021.So, what about the future?The Cirium Airline Insights Review 20206 | At Cirium we believe there are seven key trends:Consolidation of airlinesIn addition to over 40 commercial airlines that have cease

26、d or suspended operation since the start of the year, more airlines struggle as the cash burns. Airlines have already consolidated several times in the past in EMEA, the US and China into three main full-service groups and one or two large low-cost carriers (LCCs). It is possible that mid-sized carr

27、iers in the US will merge or will be acquired by their larger competitors. This trend hasnt yet occurred in Asia-Pacific to a similar extent, so we expect to see movement in the region. Larger airlines may acquire smaller carriers and some may merge. For example, Korean Air acquired its local rival,

28、 Asiana.We expect more domestic competitors will consolidate. However, cross-border consolidation in APAC is unlikely due to ownership control rules.New-generation aircraft in serviceNewer aircraft will return to the skies, a huge monthly cost-saver on fuel burn. In addition, the airlines have clear

29、 objectives for “greener skies” and so we will see domination by aircraft with the latest technology. This year has seen more narrowbody aircraft fly, mainly as domestic flights are recovering versusinternational. The popularity of the Airbus A321neo is evident. The Boeing 737 Max is now making a re

30、turn to the skies. Each of these aircraft have the latest technology and excellent range, are the furthest away from the next maintenance check, and are the most fuel efficient.Aircraft retirements and reconfigurationsThere will be a surplus of aircraft. This is no surprise with 30% of the global fl

31、eet still grounded and with future demand looking slow in its recovery. Larger aircraft such as the Boeing 747 and the Airbus A380 will be retired sooner than expected. Some aircraft types will be converted to cargo. We are projectingaround 66 aircraft conversions to be completed this year and we ar

32、e forecasting a significant increase in 2021 and a further rise in 2022. This is likely to be driven by strong growth in the e-commerce market, helped by customers making their purchases online.A new way to forecast demandDuring Q4, bookings were down 78% compared with the same period in 2019. That

33、is even worse than the summer period of 2020and even then, we were seeing 40% of bookings being made last minuteas little as one to three days before travel. Airlines have a harder time to use historical data to forecast future demand and need new indicators insteadmainly search and sentiment. This

34、will include online searches people make, price comparison sales data, and social media activity. Airlines looked to these indicators previously, but as a secondary source. Moving forward, these are likely to become primary indicators for predicting demand and developing pricing strategies.Airline o

35、perational flexibilityThe six- to eight-month flight scheduling window has changed to a quarterly or six to eight week planning process due to volatility of this year. We will see more of this dynamic scheduling activity as airlines develop quicker reactions to demand pricing and equipment use. This

36、 will help break down the legacy silos that existed between commercial planning network teams and revenue management. The airlines will need operational resilience and seamless collaboration between their planning and operations.Digital traveler experienceReal-time traveler information in the form o

37、f notifications and alerts is critical to airlines and their passengers. The booking window is now close to the day of travel, so proactive communications are needed in a short timeframe. This is essential in times of disruption and is crucial to building traveler confidence.Experiences at the airpo

38、rt and in flight will also need to be touchless and safe, so the implementation of AI technology will accelerate, and we will likely see new technologies launch to improve the experience of flying.The rise of aircraft leasingWith the financial struggles of airlines as a result of the pandemic, the l

39、easing sector is likely to take on an even greater role. We expect to see leasing companies push past the 50% ownership share of the global fleet, which has been coming for some time. Sale-and-leasebacks in particular are an immediate source of cash, something airlines so desperately need.THE ON-TIM

40、E PERFORMANCE REVIEW 2020David WhiteVP of strategyJim HetzelHead of product management, air operationsThe On-Time Performance Review 2020Heres why Cirium is focusing on the broader commercial aviation industry for 2020 and not just OTPCirium has monitored airline and airport on-time performance (OTP

41、) for more than a decade. Our OTP awards program recognizes outstanding performance by airlines in an array of categories and regions. OTP, up until the COVID-19 crisis, had become a differentiator for the operationalqualities of airlines and/or a key performance indicator by airline C-suites. The p

42、ublic, in particular the corporate traveler, was keen to know how the various airlines performed so that they could make good choices for trips that required an on-time arrival or a lower risk of disruption.OTP comparisons of key airports and regions, September 2020 versus 2019 (A14%)010203040506070

43、8090100London Heathrow (LHR) John F. Kennedy (JFK) Narita International (NRT)Intra-Europe North AmericaIntra-Asia-Pacic (excl China)OTP percentagesSeptember 2019September 2020Source: Cirium Core, on-time performance, date filed October 2020Winners in the various categories typically achieved OTP per

44、centages of anywhere from a high 80s to the low 90s. Considering the complexity of operating hundreds or even thousands of flights each day, these levels of OTP stood out.This year, demand took an extreme dive starting in China in February 2020 before spreading to the US and Europe in March-April.Ai

45、rlines could not find the bottom in the demand and made drastic cuts in their schedules.Crowded skies and airports emptied out. The only good news is that high levels of OTP are now the norm rather than the exception.In January and February 2020, just over 10% of the top 300 carriers had achieved an

46、 on-time arrival percentage of 90% or higher, similar to 2019.Since then, over 60% of the top 300 airlines have done so. There are two factors at play here. The lack of congestion in the airspace and at airports contributes significantly to time saving. But a second, less obvious factor carries some

47、 weightas well. Many current airline schedules still use block times (the total time expected for a flight to get from gate-to-gate) set for pre-COVID-19 conditions.They assume taxi in and out times and a level of congestion that simply dont exist todayand probably wont for the foreseeable future. B

48、lock times are padded and, therefore, it becomes much easier to experience an on-time arrival.Granted, some of that time is consumed by additional sanitation requirements. Nonetheless, Cirium data shows that block time reliability has risen right along with OTP.Completed flight percentages, also kno

49、wn as Completion Factor or CF% (the percentage of scheduled flights that actually operate), have historically been a key performance reliability indicator, and are often associated with OTP.Prior to COVID-19, the industry completed roughly 98% of their scheduled flights. When flights were canceled t

50、hey were typically for operational issues such as weather or maintenance.Completion factor by major US airlines, January to November 202010510095Completion factor90858075706560555045JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov(DL) Delta Air Lines(AA) American Airlines(UA) United Airlines(WN) Southwest Airlines

51、Source: Cirium Core, flights tracked, date filed December 1 2020In the current pandemic state of the industry the overall CF% dropped to only 82% in March 2020 and 66% in April 2020.These cancelations were primarily not operationally-related, but rather indicated that schedules were far too optimist

52、ic and that decisions on whether or not to operate a scheduled flight were made on a day-to-day basis depending on demand.Cancelations skyrocketed. Completed flight percentages have since risen back into the mid-nineties for many airlines as they became more savvy in aligning their schedules andcapa

53、city with actual demand. However, demand forecasting remains very difficult especially with nearly 40% of bookings happening within three days of a flight.The US airline market represents this dramatic swing in CF.As the completion factor chart above illustrates, the unprecedented drop in travel dem

54、anddue to COVID-19 resulted in mass cancelation through March and April 2020 as the airlines were unable to adjust flight schedules fast enough to keep up with the speed of the outbreaks impact on travel.Entering May 2020 with dramatically lower demand and the need to run operations as lean as possi

55、ble to conserve precious cash flow, the US major carriers sharpened their pencils and changed how airlines will plan schedules. This will as a result reduce cancelations to a more normal rate.Pre-COVID-19, the airlines:Published their schedules six to 11 months in advanceScheduled changes inside fou

56、r months of departure were minorOnce crew assignments were in place, only day-of-departure operational issues would cause a flight cancelationAirlines flew +98% of their published schedulePost-COVID-19, the airlines:Did not finalize their schedules until four to eight weeks prior to departureFor som

57、e, schedules are changing within a week of departureSchedules are being updated multiple times per weekThis scheduling strategy change has helped restore completion factors to near-normal rate and increased the perceived reliability of airline adherence to the schedules published.Outside of the US,

58、we foresee there will continue to be historically high cancelation rates and lower completion factors for airlines that are unable to employ dynamic schedule planning strategies, such as those employed by the US major airlines.This will result in more non-operational cancelations within three days o

59、f the flight, lower completion factors and less adherence to the published schedule. This will result in a lot of potential to negatively impact passengers perception of the airlines operations.These and other factors led Cirium to move away from our focus on OTP temporarily and to take a broader vi

60、ew of the commercial aviation industry for the 2020 year-end report. This has been an extraordinary year by any measure. nThis section provides insight into flights actually operated this year, by airline, by airport, most flown aircraft and by two-way routes.From January 1 to December 20, 2020, 16.