申萬海外研究報(bào)告萬汽車3669hk yongda autoeng

1、SWS Research Co.is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai |Automobiles| Company ResearchBringing China to the World21 July, 2017BUYMaFull speedCHINA YONGDA AUTOMOBILES SERVIainHOLDINGS (3669 HK)Finanl sumnd valuationMarket Data: July 20, 2017Closing Price (HK$)9.59

2、201520162017E2018E2019ERevenue (Rmbm)YOY (%)Nete (Rmbm) YOY (%)EPS (Rmb)Diluted EPS (Rmb) ROE (%)Debt/asset (%) Dividend Yield (%) P/E (x)P/B (x)EV/EBITDA (x)35,6588.35244.70.350.3513.03.115.843,03320.785162.30.580.5618.545.41.816.72.611.850,29016.91,39163.50.940.8525.542.32.966

3、,96133.21,90036.51.281.1628.839.64.078,55017.32,45229.11.661.50Price(HK$)12.80HSCEI10,847HSCCI4,22452-k High/Low (HK$)9.80 /3.33Market Cap (USD Mn)1,827Market Cap (HK$ Mn)14,194Shares Outstanding (Mn)1,480Exchange Rate (RMB-HK$)Price Performance Chart:0.870200.0%150.0%10

4、0.0%50.0%0.0%-50.0%Note: Diluted EPS is calculated as if all outstanding convertible securities, such as convertible preferred shares, convertible debentures, stock options and warrants, were exercised. P/E is calculated as closing price divided by each years EPS.Yongda released aitive profit alert

5、guiding net profit growth of over 60% YoY for 1H17.xpectthe company to report 1H17 revenue of Rmb21.9bn (+17.0% YoY) and net profit of Rmb620m (+62.0%YoY), mainly driven by improving new car sales margin, solid after-sales business, and ragrowth inYongdaHSI Indexagency, finance leasing, and pre-owne

6、d car businesses. We raise our EPS forecasts from Rmb0.88 toRmb0.94 in 17E (+63.5% YoY), from Rmb1.23 to Rmb1.28 in 18E (+36.5% YoY), and from Rmb1.60 toSource: BloombergRmb1.66 in 19E (+29.1% YoY). We raise ourupside, we maain our BUY rating on Yongda.price from HK$12.36 to HK$12.80. With 33.5%ystA

7、lison ZhangA0230115050003 BFR269zhangcheSolid demand for luxury vehicles. A growing middle class and rising disablee are drivingaspirational demand for higher-end consumroducts. As a result, China luxury vehicle sales haveexpandedagr of 18.2%he past five years to top 2.2m units in 16A. We forecast l

8、uxury vehiclesales growth of 17.4% YoY in 17E, accounting for 10.0% of the overall market in 17E (vs 8.8% in 16A).BMW upcycle. Following the launch of the 7th-generation 5 Series in June 2017, Brilliance ChinaRecent reports(1114:HK N-R) will launch new mshe next two years, including the X3 mto be re

9、leased“Yongda(3669:HK)-Dealsonin China in 1H18, and the next-generation 3 Series in 2019. With BMW products representing 53% ofwheels” July 20, 2017Yongda sales,xpect the release of new ms to support its new car sales grownd marginexpan. We forecast new car sales volume of 177k units in 17E (+20.0%

10、YoY), 219k units in 18E(+24.2% YoY), and 248k units in 19E (+13.1% YoY). Backed by strong product cycle and narrowing retaildiscount,xpect the companys gross margo pick up from 3.1% in 16A to 3.6% in 17E.High-speed value-added servi. As the new car sales business hase less profitable since, such as

11、insurance and aut2014, dealers have shifted their efforts toward higher-margin serviThe company does not hold any equities or derivatives of the listed companyfinance agency servior vehicle leasing.xpect total revenue from agency servito growconsumersmentionedwe shall provid serviregulations. Any af

12、fi may hold equities of th exceed 1 percent of ito the relevant laws and rebut then37.0% YoY in 17E, as insurance renewals strengthen and an increasing number of Chiresort to financing solutions for car purchases, as oped to using their own savings. We forecast nets and he companyprofit from leasing

13、 of Rmb134m in 17E (+153% YoY), driven by growth in the businessgenerating asset base.erest-iaybjectMaain BUY. Given improving new car sales margin and fast growthhe higher-margin businesses,company may also provide in bCompany fulfills its duty of disclos within its sphere of knowledge. The c may c

14、ontactcomplianrelevant disclosure materials or logsuch as after-sales and agency servi, we slightly raise our EPS forecasts from Rmb0.88 to Rmb0.94in 17E (+63.5% YoY), from Rmb1.23 to Rmb1.28 in 18E (+36.5% YoY), and from Rmb1.60 to Rmb1.66ntsin 19E (+29.1% YoY). We raise ourmaain our BUY rating on

15、Yongda.price from HK$12.36 to HK$12.80. With 33.5% upside, wewwwunder disclosurecolumn for further information. The c nts shall have a comprehensive understanding of the disclosure anddier upon the last page.21 July 2017Automobiles| Company Research投資要點(diǎn)：永達(dá)汽車 7 月 20 日業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告，預(yù)期 1H17 凈利實(shí)現(xiàn)超過 60%大幅增長(zhǎng)。預(yù)期，公司

16、 1H17實(shí)現(xiàn)收入219 億（同比增長(zhǎng) 17.0%），凈利6.2 億（同比增長(zhǎng) 62.0%），主要原因在于新車毛利率擴(kuò)張，穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)，衍生業(yè)務(wù)高速發(fā)展。17 年 EPS 由1.23 元上調(diào)至0.88 元1.28 元（同上調(diào)至0.94 元（同比增長(zhǎng) 63.5%），18 年 EPS 由比增長(zhǎng) 36.5%），19 年EPS 由1.60 元上調(diào)至1.66 元（同比增長(zhǎng) 29.1%）。上調(diào)目標(biāo)價(jià)至港幣 12.80 元，鑒于 33.5%上升空間，維持買入。豪華車穩(wěn)健增長(zhǎng)。受益于中產(chǎn)群體擴(kuò)大，以及人均可支配收入的增長(zhǎng)，16 年豪華車銷量達(dá)220，5 年復(fù)合增長(zhǎng)率高達(dá) 18.2%。市場(chǎng)占有率由 16 年 8.8

17、%升至 17 年 10.0%。預(yù)期，17 年中國(guó)豪華車銷量同比增長(zhǎng) 17.4%，乘用車寶產(chǎn)品周期。中國(guó)(1114:HK)將于 17-19 年集中推出多款車型，包括 17 年 6 月上市的第七代寶馬 5 系，18 年上半年國(guó)產(chǎn)引進(jìn)中型 SUV X3，19 年換代新寶馬 3 系等。寶馬車型達(dá) 16 年豪華車銷量 53%，隨著寶產(chǎn)品周期來臨，永達(dá)有望實(shí)現(xiàn)新車銷量大幅增長(zhǎng)，新車毛利明顯改善。預(yù)計(jì)永達(dá)新車銷量達(dá) 17 年 17.7（同比增長(zhǎng) 20.0%），18 年 21.9（同比增長(zhǎng) 24.2%），19 年達(dá) 24.8（同比增長(zhǎng) 13.1%）。受益于強(qiáng)勁的新車需求，終端折扣收窄，預(yù)計(jì)公司新車毛利率由 1

18、6 年 3.1%升至 17 年 3.6%。衍生業(yè)務(wù)高速發(fā)展。隨著新車銷售利潤(rùn)率下滑，經(jīng)銷商自 2014 年起積極開展后市場(chǎng)衍生業(yè)務(wù)，包括保險(xiǎn)、廠商金融及融資租賃等，由于利潤(rùn)率較高，衍生業(yè)務(wù)的利潤(rùn)貢獻(xiàn)逐漸上升。預(yù)期永達(dá) 17 年保險(xiǎn)及金融收入同比增長(zhǎng) 37.0%，主要原因在于公司致力于提高客戶留存，保險(xiǎn)續(xù)保率提高， 汽車金融滲透率持續(xù)上升。同時(shí)，預(yù)計(jì)公司 17 年融資租賃業(yè)務(wù)實(shí)現(xiàn)大幅增長(zhǎng)，新增升息資產(chǎn)規(guī)模達(dá)119%）。45 億元（同比增長(zhǎng) 100%），凈利達(dá)1.16 億元（同比增長(zhǎng)維持買入年 EPS 由調(diào)至。17 年 EPS 由1.23 元上調(diào)至0.88 元上調(diào)至0.94 元（同比增長(zhǎng) 63.5

19、%），181.28 元（同比增長(zhǎng) 36.5%），19 年 EPS 由1.60 元上1.66 元（同比增長(zhǎng) 29.1%）。上調(diào)目標(biāo)價(jià)至港幣 12.80 元，鑒于 33.5%上升空間，維持買入。Please refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 121 July 2017Automobiles| Company ResearchFull speedYongda released aitive profit alert guiding net profit growth of over 60% YoY for 1H17.xpect

20、the company to report 1H17 revenue of Rmb21.9bn (+17.0% YoY) and net profitof Rmb620m (+62.0% YoY), mainly driven by improving new car sales margin, solid after-sales business, and ragrowth in agency, finance leasing, and pre-owned car businesses.Solid demand for luxury vehicles. A growing middle cl

21、ass and rising disablee aredriving aspirational demand for higher-end consumroducts. As a result, China luxuryvehicle sales have expandedagr of 18.2%he past five years to top 2.2m units in16A. We forecast luxury vehicle sales growth of 17.4% YoY in 17E, accounting for 10.0% ofthe overall market in 1

22、7E (vs 8.8% in 16A).Fig 1: DisableeFig 2: Chinas luxury vehicle sales volume(Rmb000)403.0(m units)Cagr: 9.0302.0201.0100.0201120122010Sales volumSource: CAAM, Autohome, SWS Research2011201220132014Source: NBS, SWS ResearchBMW upcycle. Following the launch of the 7th-generation 5 Series in June 2017,

23、 BrillianceChina (1114:HK N-R) will launch new mshe next two years, including the X3mto be released in China in 1H18, and the next-generation 3 Series in 2019. WithBMW products representing 53% of Yongda sales,xpect the release of new msto support its new car sales grownd margin expan. We forecast n

24、ew car salesvolume of 177k units in 17E (+20.0% YoY), 219k units in 18E (+24.2% YoY), and 248k unitsin 19E (+13.1% YoY). Backed by strong product cycle and narrowing retail discount, weexpect the companys gross margo pick up from 3.1% in 16A to 3.6% in 17E.Fig 3: Yongda new car sales forecast300(000

25、 units)250200150100500201120122NeSource: Company data, SWS ResearchHigh-speed value-added servi. As the new car sales business hase lessprofitable since 2014, dealers have shifted their efforts toward higher-margin servi,such as insurance and auto finance agency servior vehicle leasing.xpect totalPl

26、ease refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 221 July 2017Automobiles| Company Researchrevenue from agency servito grow 37.0% YoY in 17E, as insurance renewals strengthenand an increasing number of Chiconsumers resort to financing solutions for carpurchases, as oped to using their own s

27、avings. We forecast net profit from leasing ofRmb134m in 17E (+153% YoY), driven by growthbase.he businesserest-generating assetValuationGiven improving new car sales margin and fast growthhe higher-margin businesses,such as after-sales and agency servi, we slightly raise our EPS forecasts from Rmb0

28、.88to Rmb0.94 in 17E (+63.5% YoY), from Rmb1.23 to Rmb1.28 in 18E (+36.5% YoY), and fromRmb1.60 to Rmb1.66 in 19E (+29.1% YoY).We raise ourprice from HK$12.36 to HK$12.80. With 33.5% upside, we maainour BUY rating on Yongda.Fig 4: Forward PE ratio12(x)10864201-year forward PE-1 stdAverage+1 stdSourc

29、e: Bloomberg, SWS ResearchPlease refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 321 July 2017Automobiles| Company ResearchCompany finanlsConsolidatede sement32,63139,22745,45360,71471,061Cost of Sales4157601,0011,3951,724Othere7301,0521,2071,6071,885Administrative expenses1,2241,6312,4513,1893

30、,983EBIT7771,1521,8792,5653,311Profit before tax435789121157MinorityerestsSource: SWS ResearchConsolidated Balanheet1,5321,7721,6962,4753,284Bbalanand cash4,0834,3175,2285,7016,380Inventories338549594644699Long-term investment2,2392,8933,0873,2973,524angible and other assets10,98512,43013,41115,3491

31、7,024Current Liabilities4,6835,2016,6167,9559,100Trade and othayables1,6222,5423,7423,9424,242Long-term liabilities363441529635762Minorityerests1212121212Share Capital4,2374,9625,9397,2738,995Equity attributableSource: SWS ResearchPlease refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 4Total Li

32、abilities and equity17,20720,37523,62227,19931,023Reserves4,2254,9505,9277,2618,983Shareholder Equity4,6005,4036,4687,9089,757Total Liabilities12,60714,97217,15319,29121,266Other current liabilities2,4001,909943957973Borrowings3,9025,3195,8516,4366,951Total Assets17,20720,37523,62227,19931,023PP&E3,

33、5783,9424,3364,7705,246Other current assets1,9042,5403,4884,1224,727Trade and other receivables3,5344,3625,1936,1917,163Rmbm201420152016E2017E2018ECurrent Assets11,05212,99215,60418,48821,554Profit for the year5248511,3911,9002,452e tax expense209244398544702Finance Costs447479572624672EBITDA1,2541,

34、6842,9453,7334,581Distribution expenses1,5031,9152,2132,8793,378Gross Profit3,0273,8054,8376,2477,489Rmbm201420152016E2017E2018ERevenue35,65843,03350,29066,96178,55021 July 2017Automobiles| Company ResearchCash Flow Sement3053494544598Plus：Depre tion. and amortisation366441000Losses from investments

35、(172)(559)(398)(544)(702)Others(1,027)(929)(394)(434)(477)CX(1,571)(1,311)(1,221)(1,435)(1,655)CF from investing activities(123)1,707753785815Net change in liabilities51(45)000Other CF from financing activitiesSourWS ResearchKey Finanl Ratios0.350.580.941.281.66Earnings per share1.330.390.651.391.57

36、Operating CF per share3.113.654.375.346.59Net assets per share14.216.1ROIC8.498.849.629.339.53Gross profit margin4.85.1EBIT Margin4.762.363.536.529.1Growth rate of Profit(YoY)9.38.9Turnover rate of net assets26.921.2Effective tax rate (%)Valuation Ratios (X)3.

37、1.5P/B15.84.3EV/EBITDASource: SWS ResearchPlease refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 5EV/Sale0.30.3P/E27.116.7Dividend yield (%)4.05.1Turnover rate of total assets2.62.7Debt-to-asset ratio40.945.442.339.637.4Growth rate of Rev

38、enue(YoY)8.320.716.933.217.3EBITDA Margin5.65.8ROE13.018.525.528.830.2Key Operating Ratios(%)Dividend per share80.380.49Diluted earnings per share0.350.560.851.161.50201420152016E2017E2018ERatios per share (RMB)CF from financing activities(739)980181161143Net cash flow(342)240(76

39、)780809Dividend anderest paid(667)(682)(572)(624)(672)Equity financing00000Other CF from investing activities(544)(382)(827)(1,002)(1,178)CF from operating activities1,9685719642,0542,322Change in working capital519(996)(1,583)(1,135)(1,558)Finance cost447479572624672Rmbm201420152016E2017E2018EProfi

40、t before taxation7771,1521,8792,5653,31121 July 2017Automobiles| Company ResearchInformation Disclosure：The views expressedhis report accura y reflect theal views of theyst. Theyst declarest neither he/she nor his/her asso te servesas an officer of nor has any finan lerests in relation to the listed

41、 corporation reviewed by theyst. None of the listed corporations reviewed or anythird party has provided or agreed to provide any compensation or other benefits in connection with this report to any of the yst, the Company or the group company(ies). A group company(ies) of the Company confirm t they

42、, whether individually or as a group (i) are not involved in any market making activities for any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (ii) do no ve any individual employed by or asso ted wi ny group company(ies) of the Company serving as an officer of any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (i

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44、t Consulting Industry by the Securities Asso tion of China and have registered as the Securities yst. I hereby i e this report independently and objectively with due diligence, profes al and prudent resear ethods and only legitimate information is used his report. I am also responsible for the conte

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48、ematerials or logo for theysts qualifications，the arrangement of the quiet period and the affiliates shareholdings.roduction of Share Investment Rating Security Investment Rating：When measuring the difference bet we define the terms as follows:n the markup of the security andt of the markets benark

49、within six months after the release of this report,Trading BUY: Share price performance is expected to generate moren 20% upside over a 6-month period.BUY: Share price performance is expected to generate moren 20% upside over a 12-month period.Outperform: Share price performance is expected to gener

50、ate betn 10-20% upside over a 12-month period.Hold: Share price performance is expected to generate betn 10% downside to 10% upside over a 12-month period.Underform: Share price performance is expected to generate betn 10-20% downside over a 12-month period. SELL: Share price performance is expected

51、 to generate moren 20% downside over a 12-month period.Industry Investment Rating:When measuring the difference betn the markup of the industry index andt of the markets ben report, we define the terms as follows:ark within six months after the release of theOverweight：Industry performs betternt of

52、the whole market；Equal weight： Industry performs about the same ast of the whole market；Underweight：Industry performs worsent of the whole market.We would like to remind yout different security research institutions adopt different rating terminologies and rating standards. We adopt the relativerati

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