宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)介紹課件

1、課程介紹學(xué)習(xí)內(nèi)容什么是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)為什么要研究宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究?jī)?nèi)容宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家怎樣思考1 什么是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)什么是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)什么是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)：稀缺資源的配置回顧你學(xué)的管理經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)機(jī)會(huì)成本、邊際、需求供給、博弈論、不對(duì)稱(chēng)信息等宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)十條原則 人們?cè)趺醋鰶Q策人們面臨權(quán)衡取舍People face tradeoffs.機(jī)會(huì)成本The cost of something is what you give up to get it.理性的人用邊際概念思考Rational people think at the margin.人們接受激勵(lì)People respond to incent

2、ives.TEN PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS 人們?nèi)绾位ハ嘧饔媒灰资沟妹總€(gè)人變好Trade can make everyone better off.市場(chǎng)是組織經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的好方法Markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity.政府有時(shí)候能夠改進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的結(jié)果Governments can sometimes improve economic outcomes.TEN PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS 經(jīng)濟(jì)作為整體. 生活水平取決于一個(gè)國(guó)家的生產(chǎn)能力The standard of living

3、depends on a countrys production.當(dāng)政府印刷太多貨幣的時(shí)候，價(jià)格水平會(huì)上升Prices rise when the government prints too much money.短期內(nèi)，通貨膨脹和失業(yè)有一個(gè)交替關(guān)系Society faces a short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)為什么有衰退？政府可以應(yīng)對(duì)衰退嗎為什么有通貨膨脹金銀是財(cái)富嗎？生活水平的提高依賴(lài)于金銀多少嗎？政府赤字和稅收對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響是什么？中國(guó)出口太多嗎匯率會(huì)升值嗎貨幣太多嗎為什么上海是貴州的12倍？美國(guó)是非洲

4、某些國(guó)家的50倍？宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)是把經(jīng)濟(jì)作為一個(gè)整體來(lái)研究的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的一個(gè)分支。2 為什么學(xué)習(xí)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)與我們的生活息息相關(guān)商業(yè)決策所需要政治軍事等的演進(jìn)亦與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)相關(guān)出于人類(lèi)的好奇和求知的本性中國(guó)尤其需要宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)尚不成熟，中國(guó)尤其許小年：中央政府需頂住壓力，嚴(yán)控通脹，堅(jiān)持緊縮發(fā)表時(shí)間： 2008年07月21日 16時(shí)49分 評(píng)論/閱讀(/)本文地址： /blog/622006047-1216630178許小年：經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣下降原本是政策目標(biāo)，真到效果初現(xiàn)時(shí)，卻又驚異不安起來(lái)【背景】7月6日至8日，中共中央政治局常委、國(guó)務(wù)院副總理李克強(qiáng)在浙江省開(kāi)始了為期三天的調(diào)研。李克強(qiáng)的此次調(diào)研，是近期中央高

5、層密集調(diào)研的一部分，國(guó)務(wù)院總理溫家寶赴江蘇、上海，國(guó)家副主席習(xí)近平赴廣東，國(guó)務(wù)院副總理王岐山赴山東，商務(wù)部部長(zhǎng)陳德銘赴溫州，分別對(duì)當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行情況進(jìn)行調(diào)研。溫家寶在調(diào)研時(shí)指出，要把抑制通貨膨脹放在宏觀調(diào)控的突出位置。分析人士認(rèn)為，通貨膨脹的居高不下，對(duì)消費(fèi)者和各類(lèi)企業(yè)的信心構(gòu)成了一定影響。5月居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)（CPI）和工業(yè)品出廠價(jià)格指數(shù)（PPI）同比增幅分別為7.7%和8.2%。與4月相比，CPI同比增幅出現(xiàn)了下降。PPI同比增幅則不斷走高，并在5月超過(guò)CPI增幅。為應(yīng)對(duì)通貨膨脹，央行一再緊縮銀根。6月7日，中國(guó)人民銀行今年第五次上調(diào)存款準(zhǔn)備金率，決定于2008年6月15日和25日分別上調(diào)

6、0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。據(jù)悉，關(guān)系下半年貨幣政策等宏觀調(diào)控走向的中央經(jīng)濟(jì)分析會(huì)將很快召開(kāi)，貨幣政策從緊的基調(diào)不會(huì)改變。同時(shí)，浙江中小企業(yè)融資難問(wèn)題初露曙光，醞釀已久的小額貸款公司9月將在浙江省全省鋪開(kāi)試點(diǎn)，這是目前小額貸款公司進(jìn)行的最大規(guī)模試點(diǎn)。中歐國(guó)際工商學(xué)院教授許小年認(rèn)為，中小企業(yè)融資困難源于外部需求疲軟與金融改革落后，屬微觀層面，不能作為放松宏觀調(diào)控的理由；而擴(kuò)張性政策的普施好處，使其頗合“民意”。中央政府需頂住壓力，嚴(yán)控通脹，堅(jiān)持緊縮。他說(shuō)，經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣下降原本是政策想要實(shí)現(xiàn)的目標(biāo)，真到效果初現(xiàn)時(shí)，人們卻又驚異不安起來(lái)。近日，各種議論見(jiàn)諸報(bào)端，援引中小企業(yè)融資困難等理由，吁請(qǐng)政府緩行宏觀調(diào)控。許小

7、年就此指出，目前的形勢(shì)是概念不清、邏輯混亂、目標(biāo)沖突、利益糾纏。踉蹌而行的宏觀調(diào)控又一次來(lái)到岔路口上。中小企業(yè)融資的困難由來(lái)已久，并非始于宏觀調(diào)控之時(shí)。 許小年：宏觀調(diào)控解決不了微觀問(wèn)題發(fā)表時(shí)間： 2008年09月17日 17時(shí)12分 評(píng)論/閱讀(/)本文地址： /blog/622006047-1221642725投資者不可盲目樂(lè)觀 許小年認(rèn)為，這次貨幣政策的調(diào)整只是微調(diào)，不大可能從根本上改變整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)和資本市場(chǎng)的基本面。后續(xù)貨幣政策大幅調(diào)整的可能性不大，因?yàn)殂y根過(guò)松可能導(dǎo)致通脹。如果市場(chǎng)對(duì)這次貨幣政策的微調(diào)持樂(lè)觀態(tài)度，恐怕不久又會(huì)失望。 機(jī)構(gòu)視點(diǎn)野村證券：預(yù)測(cè)三季度GDP增長(zhǎng)超9%交行研究部：

8、預(yù)計(jì)11月CPI同比轉(zhuǎn)正國(guó)泰君安：9月經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將較8月提升銀河證券：四季度貨幣政策回歸適度寬松海通證券：市場(chǎng)正提前消化W型經(jīng)濟(jì)底長(zhǎng)江證券：預(yù)計(jì)9月份用電量增速仍將上升分析評(píng)論更多厲以寧：通脹可能會(huì)來(lái)臨姚景源：40年后中國(guó)人均GDP將達(dá)2.5萬(wàn)美元樊綱：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不能包治百病王慶：中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)受影響有限成思危：通貨膨脹的預(yù)期已經(jīng)形成哈繼銘：預(yù)計(jì)CPI十一月轉(zhuǎn)正 明年出口量將增長(zhǎng)8%媒體評(píng)論中國(guó)證券報(bào)：通脹或?qū)⒚髂甑絹?lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)觀察報(bào)：尋找中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)新平衡點(diǎn)新聞晚報(bào)：四季度CPI或轉(zhuǎn)正東方早報(bào)：四季度或?qū)⑾纫趾髶P(yáng)金融時(shí)報(bào)：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)熱度指數(shù)回升深圳商報(bào)：肉價(jià)加速跑與CPI負(fù)增長(zhǎng)THE BROOKINGS

9、INSTITUTIONTHE STATE OF THE U.S. ECONOMY Washington, DC Wednesday, December 19, 2007Lawrence H. SummersRisks of Recession, Prospects for PolicyI am speaking here today because I believe that our current economic situationrequires a comprehensive program of measures to contain the fallout from proble

10、ms in the financial and housing sectors and to assure sufficient policy support for economic growth over the next several years. Perhaps because of a failure to appreciate the gravity of our current situation and the problems our political process has in responding quickly and collaboratively to eme

11、rgent threats, such a comprehensive program is neither in place nor in immediate prospect.For the last year, the economic consensus, and the policy actions that have flowedfrom it, has been consistently behind the curve in recognizing the gravity of the problems in the housing and financial sectors

12、and their consequences for the overall economy. This continues to be the case. In my view it is almost certain that we are headed for a period of heavily constrained growth, quite likely that the economy will experience a recession as technically defined and distinctly possible that we are headed in

13、to a period of the worst economic performance since the stagflation of the late 1970s and recessions of the early 1980sAfter a deep global recession, economic growth has turned positive, as wide-ranging public intervention has supported demand and lowered uncertainty and systemic risk in financial m

14、arkets. Nonetheless, the recovery is expected to be slow, as financial systems remain impaired, support from public policies will gradually have to be withdrawn, and households in economies that suffered asset price busts will continue to rebuild savings. Risks to the outlook remain on the downside.

15、 Premature exit from accommodative monetary and fiscal policies is a particular concern because the policy-induced rebound might be mistaken for the beginning of a strong recovery. The key requirement remains to restore financial sector health while maintaining supportive macroeconomic policies unti

16、l the recovery is on a firm footing. At the same time, policymakers need to begin preparing for an orderly unwinding of extraordinary levels of public intervention. Policies also need to facilitate a rebalancing of global demand, because economies that experienced asset price busts will need to rais

17、e saving rates, and there is a need to bolster potential growth in advanced economies, which has suffered as a result of the major financial shocks. Rising unemployment and setbacks to progress in poverty reduction pose social challenges that also must be addressed.2008危機(jī)3 宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究?jī)?nèi)容GDP失業(yè)和就業(yè)通貨膨脹利率，還有呢匯率進(jìn)出口赤字貨幣供給宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的兩大主題長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)短期宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)：衰退和繁榮長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)持續(xù)的人均收入或產(chǎn)出的增長(zhǎng)長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)很重要是近代以來(lái)的事情一個(gè)國(guó)家2%，200年，多少倍1%呢中國(guó)1800-1950，年均增長(zhǎng)率-0.2%，天那我們?cè)诮?jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的部分，將詳細(xì)探究經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的事實(shí)、規(guī)律和原因經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)圍繞著長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)線波動(dòng)增長(zhǎng)和波動(dòng)U.S. Real GDP per capita (2000 dollars)Great DepressionWorld Wa