臺灣生晶圓片：需求趕上供給尚需1年

1、Equity Research Asia Pacific | TaiwanAsia Semiconductor SectorTaiwan Raw Wafers: Another year before demand can catch up to supplySemiconductor Devices | Sector ForecastFigure 1: Raw wafer makers peer valuation comparisonCompanyTickerLocal Price3/20/2020TargetLocal CurcyInvment TargetRating upsideMk

2、t Cap(US$mn)EPS YoY2020 2021P/E2020 2021P/B2021ROE2021Dividend yield2020 2021Wafer MakersGlobalwafers6488.TWO$342.50$450.0OPFM31%$4,943-5.9%9.2%11.710.72.727.46.4%6.0%Shinetsu4063.T$9,075.00$11,830NTRL30%$34,2975.5%2.4%11.62.6%3.0%SUMCO3436.T$1,076.00$1,510NTRL40%$2,862-62.4%18.3%26.922.8

3、1.16.04.6%4.6%SiltronicWAFGn.DE$54.84$83.0NTRL51%$1,645-22.2%17.9%9.48.01.114.05.5%6.0%Wafer Works6182.TWO$24.30$28.5NTRL17%$410-40.0%52.9%11.87.2%4.3%Formosa SUMCO3532.TW$138.00$105.0UPFM-24%$1,767-23.6%65.0%30.318.42.812.23.0%2.3%Wafer Maker Median:-22.2%17.9%11.75.5%4.6%Wafe

4、r Maker Mean:-25.0%20.1%14.75.3%4.8%Note: Priced as of 20-Mar-2020. Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Slowing supply not enough to trigger tightness until 2H21. We update our raw wafer supply-demand model and estimate global 12 raw wafer capacity growth to slow from +8% CAGR i

5、n 2017-19 to +3% CAGR in 2020-21E. The demand side in a virus containment scenario would still cyclically rebound from mobile/HPC and memory restocking to +10%/+5% in 2020-21E, implying utilisation to recover from 85-87% in 1Q20E to 95% by 2H21E, and getting back to pricing power only in 2022. For m

6、ature nodes, 8” utilisation is low-90% and pricing stable, while 6” utilization is 70-75% and pricing down mildly. Further bare wafer inventory reductions needed to help restore balance. Although the raw wafer demand should improve, the utilisation recovery could lag as the suppliers reduce output t

7、o lower the raw wafer inventory. To draw down 1.5 months inventory at customers, bare wafer shipment growth may only be -2%/+4% YoY in 2020/21E. Pricing on a moderating downtrend, with downside if the coronavirus lingers. Factoring shipment controls and utilisation still below 90%, we estimate the 1

8、2” raw wafer price declines will moderate from -10-15% YoY in 4Q19 to -2-3% YoY by 4Q20. On the downside, coronavirus will impact full year and dampen demand growth to 0%, shipments would decline 10-15%, pricing may be negotiated down another 10-15% for 2021E. LTAs provide resilience. Globalwafers s

9、ales will be flat with earnings down single digits supported by its new Korea fab from 3Q20 and 80%+ LTA with stable pricing. Formosa SUMCO and WaferWorks have 10% contracted, so would see more pricing pressure. We estimate Formosa SUMCOs sales +5% on memory restocking but earnings down 24% on prici

10、ng, and WaferWorks sales flat and earnings down 40% on stable 8” and weak 6”. Globalwafers top Taiwan pick, NEUTRAL on Wafer Works and UNDERPERFORM on Formosa SUMCO. We initiate coverage on Formosa SUMCO with Underperform (TP NT$105.00) based on 8.5x EV/EBITDA (vs 6-19x range) and 14x 2021E P/E with

11、 raw wafer spot pricing staying under pressure and valuation high on 2021 earnings, even factoring a potential pricing recovery in 2H21. We also initiate coverage on Wafer Works with Neutral (TP NT$28.50) based on 6x EV/EBITDA (vs. 2-11x range) and 12x 2021 P/E, factoring its high spot market exposu

12、re, more competition on 6 from China, and depreciation burden from its 8/12 expansion. We maintain Outperform on Globalwafers (TP NT$450.00) based on 8.5x EV/EBITDA (vs 4-12x range) with a more stable outlook on high LTA and 7% dividend yield, though near-term is impacted by COVID-19. Key risk: soft

13、er demand from COVID-19, faster-than-expected China raw wafer capacity ramp.Research AnalystsHaas Liu886 2 2715 6365 HYPERLINK mailto:haas.liu haas.liuRandy Abrams, CFA886 2 2715 6366 HYPERLINK mailto:randy.abrams randy.abramsDISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSU

14、RES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that couldFocus chart

15、s and tablesFigure 2: 12” raw wafer capacity growth to slow in 2020-Figure 3: Global 8” raw wafer capacity to slow by 2021E21E Global 12 raw wafer capacity (k WPM)YoY (%)Global 8 raw wafer capacity (k WPM, 8 eq.) Global 8 raw wafer capacity YoY8,0007,2006,4005,6004,8004,0003,2002,4001,60080020102011

16、20122013201420152016201720182019E2020E2021E020%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%8,0008%7,0007%6,0006%5,0005%4,0004%3,0003%2,0002%1,0001%20132014201520162017201820192020202100%8 Raw Wafer Capacity (k WPM)YoYIndustry 12 raw wafer capacity (k WPM)YoYSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Company

17、data, Credit Suisse estimatesFigure 4: 12” raw wafer demand cyclically reboundingFigure 5: 12” raw wafer inventory needs to deplete in 2020Global 12 raw wafer demand (k WPY, 12 eq.)12 raw wafer demand YoYGlobal 12 wafer demand /12 raw wafer shipment (k WPY, 12 eq.)12 raw waferinventory builds since

18、1Q18100,00075,00050,00025,0000201320142015201620172018201920202021-25,00020%15%10%5%0%-5%10,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0001Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q19E1Q20E2Q20E3Q20E4Q20E1Q21E2Q21E3Q21E4Q21E010,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000Global 12 raw wafer demand12 raw w

19、afer demand YoYGlobal 12 raw wafer demand Global 12 raw wafer shipmentRaw wafer inventory builds since 1Q18Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesFigure 6: 12” raw wafer UT will take until 2H21 to tightenFigure 7: Raw wafer pricing may decline modes

20、tly in 2020-21EGlobal 12 raw wafer capacity/shipment(k WPY, 12 eq.)100,00090,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,00020132014201520162017012 raw waferutilization100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%202020210%Global 12 raw wafer production/demand(k WPY, 12 eq.)100,00090,00080,00070,00060,00050,0

21、0040,00030,00020,00010,0002018201920132014201520162017012 raw waferpricing (US$)$100$90$80$70$60$50$40$30$20$1020202021$02018201912 raw wafer shipment12 raw wafer capacity 12 raw wafer utilization12 raw wafer produced by raw wafer makers12 raw wafer demand from foundries, IDMs and memory makers 12 r

22、aw wafer pricing (US$)Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesFigure 8: Globalwafers more resilient in a stress scenario Figure 9: Raw wafer valuation has been pulling backEV/EBITDA25Raw wafer makers sales20 Base20 stress% downside21 Base21 stress% d

23、ownsideGlobalwafers$57,005$50,536-11%$63,087$52,552-17%Formosa SUMCO$12,365$10,283-17%$14,027$10,765-23%Wafer Works$7,684$6,322-18%$9,467$7,151-24%Raw wafer makers Earnings20 Base20 stress% downside21 Base21 stress% downsideGlobalwafers$11,864$10,289-13%$13,037$10,484-20%Formosa SUMCO$1,875$1,279-32

24、%$3,036$1,573-48%Wafer Works$839$559-33%$1,262$626-50%2015105Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20Mar-200GlobalWafersFormosa SumcoWafer Works SUMCOShin-EtsuSiltron

25、icSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesTaiwan raw wafers: Another year before demand can catch up to supplyWe maintain our view of demand drivers helping the bare wafer sector to gradually recover, although factoring in the consumption impact from

26、 the coronavirus outbreak, excess bare wafer inventory at the memory makers, and under-utilisation at the wafer makers, we still do not expect utilisation to tighten until 2H21 and pricing to rebound until 2022. We prefer Globalwafers and maintain an OUTPERFORM with TP of NT$450.00 (reflecting lower

27、 earnings from a slower 1H20) due to its better protection with over 80% long-term contracted firm pricing and FCF supporting high yields. We are more conservative on the smaller Taiwan wafer suppliers, Formosa Sumco and Wafer Works, with limited contracts and more exposure to still falling pricing.

28、 We initiate coverage on Formosa SUMCO with a NEUTRAL rating (highly exposed to spot market) and Wafer Works with an UNDERPERFORM rating (competition on 6 from China and depreciation from its 8/12 expansion).Raw wafer industry capacity growth to slow in 2020-21We estimate the 12 raw wafer industry c

29、apacity will grow 3% YoY for both 2020 and 2021, mainly driven by Globalwafers and incremental growth from SK Siltron. The 8 capacity will be at a similar CAGR pace of 3-4% in 2020-21 on debottlenecking by major raw wafer suppliers and modest capacity addition by Ferrotec and Wafer Works. Despite st

30、ill growing capacity, we believe the raw wafer suppliers will continue to keep their utilisation at a lower level to keep raw wafer output more aligned with the inventory depletion and demand growth. Risk from China competition on 8 and 12 may still be at least 2-3 years away due to lack of technolo

31、gy and learning curve, but local players have been ramping production for lower entry barrier 6 wafer, putting the small diameter wafer sector in a structural oversupply.Product cycles lift demand barring a long virus impactCompared with low single-digits capacity increase and slower raw wafer shipm

32、ent growth, raw wafer demand in 2020-21 should be supported by 5G smartphones and data centre, lifting 12 raw wafer demand +10%/+5% in 2020/21E. For 8, despite only mild IDM recovery for automotive/industrial applications, the remaining foundry demand from mobile/consumer offers better drivers, supp

33、orting the 8 raw wafer demand to grow mid-single digits YoY in 2020-21E.Spot pricing still under mild pressure through 2020Factoring in the shipment controls and utilisation still below 90%, we estimate the 12” raw wafer prices will moderate from 10-15% declines YoY in 4Q19 to 2-3% declines YoY by 4

34、Q20. In a downside case, the coronavirus outbreak will impact full year and dampen demand growth to 0%, shipments would decline 10-15%, and pricing may be negotiated down another 10-15% for 2021, causing a sharper EPS/share price risk. Globalwafers sales will be flat with earnings down single digits

35、 supported by its new Korea fab from 3Q20 and 80%+ LTA with stable pricing. Formosa SUMCO and Wafer Works have NT$10 bn in 2020 for cash outlay to add 150k capacity in Korea (+15% 12” capacity), sampling at end-2Q20 and fully ramped at end-2020 to support local DRAM customers. Beyond that, the compa

36、ny will repatriate US$355mn for automation/efficiency investments in advanced logic and RF SOI with GlobalFoundries which had a relative strength in that application from its IBM acquisition. GWC should grow in-line with the industry with higher efficiency to maintain its margin structure barring an

37、 extended over-supply period. High LTA supports earnings visibility and sustains FCF/dividend. We keep our 2020/21 estimates at NT$29.30/NT$32.0. We stay OUTPERFORM and our target price at NT$450 based on 8.5x EV/EBITDA (vs. its 4-12x range) and 13.7x 2021 cash adjusted P/E. We maintain our positive

38、 view as even in a downside scenario factoring in slower demand from the virus, Globalwafers LTA protection gives it some relative support as it did through 2019. The company also maintained its 80% payout with NT$25 dividend, providing a 7% cash yield and also on the CS HOLT teams profile of Taiwan

39、 companies with sustainable yields.Research AnalystsHaas Liu886 2 2715 6365 HYPERLINK mailto:haas.liu haas.liuRandy Abrams, CFA886 2 2715 6366 HYPERLINK mailto:randy.abrams randy.abramsFinancial and valuation metricsShare price performanceYear12/18A12/19E12/20E12/21ERevenue (NT$ mn)59,063.558,093.75

40、6,958.763,054.8EBITDA (NT$ mn)22,414.622,872.122,983.526,682.1EBIT (NT$ mn)17,599.517,897.317,175.018,777.2Net profit (NT$ mn)13,653.313,617.112,813.213,990.0EPS (CS adj.) (NT$)31.2331.1429.332.0Chg. from prev. EPS (%)n.a.0.00.00.0Consensus EPS (NT$)n.a.31.6830.034.63EPS growth (%)145.8(0.3)(5.9)9.2

41、P/E (x)11.011.011.710.7The price relative chart measures performance against theDividend yield (%)6.0TAIWAN SE WEIGHTED INDEX which closed at 9,234.09 onEV/EBITDA (x)5.020/03/20. On 20/03/20 the spot exchange rate wasP/B (x)3.473.322.972.7NT$30.29/US$1ROE (%)35.430.926.826.4 Net de

42、bt/equity (%)(69.4)(50.9)(21.3)(28.3)Performance1M3M12MSource: Company data, Refinitiv, Credit Suisse estimatesAbsolute (%)(24.6)(7.9) 11.2Relative (%)(3.1)14.9 24.2Focus charts and tableFigure 107: 12” raw wafer capacity should grow at a 3%Figure 108: 12” raw wafer demand should recover in 2020-21C

43、AGR Global 12 raw wafer capacity (k WPM)YoY (%)8,0007,20020%18%Global 12 raw wafer demand (k WPY, 12 eq.)12 raw wafer demand YoY6,4005,6004,8004,0003,2002,4001,6008002010201120122013201420152016201720182019E2020E2021E016%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%100,00075,00050,00025,00002013201420152016201720182019202020

44、21-25,00020%15%10%5%0%-5%Industry 12 raw wafer capacity (k WPM)YoYGlobal 12 raw wafer demand12 raw wafer demand YoYSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesFigure 109: Globalwafers sales and profitability outlook stays stable in 2019-21Figure 110: 12”

45、 raw wafer inventory should be back to normal 1 month level by 2H20Globalwafers revenue (NT$mn)Globalwafers GMs/OpMsGlobal 12 wafer demand /12 raw wafer$70,000$60,000$50,000$40,000$30,000$20,000$10,000201420152016201720182019E2020E2021E$045.0%40.0%35.0%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%12 raw wafer s

46、hipment (k WPY, 12 eq.)10,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0001Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q19E1Q20E2Q20E3Q20E4Q20E1Q21E2Q21E3Q21E4Q21E0Global 12 raw wafer demandinventory builds since 1Q1810,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000Globalwafers Sales (NT$mn)Globalwafers GMsGloba

47、lwafers OpMsGlobal 12 raw wafer shipmentRaw wafer inventory builds since 1Q18Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesFigure 111: Globalwafers share should be supported by decent dividend yieldFigure 112: Disciplined capex should sustain FCF in a soft

48、 pricing environmentDividendYield 7%6%5%4%3%2%1%CY140%FCF and Dividendsper Share$80$70$60$50$40$30$20$10CY20ECY21E$0Capex and FCF (NT$mn)40,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000CY15CY16CY17CY18ECY19ECY14CY150FCF Yield (%)20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%CY20ECY21E0%Dividend Yield (%) (lhs)FCF / Shar

49、e (rhs)Dividend / Share (rhs)Operating cash flowCapital spendingFCF Yield (%)CY16CY17CY18ECY19ESource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesFigure 113: Globalwafers 4Q19-2Q20 and 2019-21 estimatesCS vs. Street4Q191Q20201920202021(NT$ mn)CSCS(old)StreetCSC

50、S(old)StreetCSCS(old)StreetCSCS(old)StreetCSCS(old)StreetSales13,50613,50613,94613,15913,82313,83358,09458,46358,44057,00559,06759,44463,08765,08566,142Chg (%)-5.6-5.6-8.0--1.6-1.0-1.1-10.710.211.3GM (%)35.335.337.735.436.837.438.638.939.236.838.036.336.837.634.3OpM (%)26.326.328.5

51、26.328.027.330.330.631.028.029.528.527.728.828.3Net Inc.2,6882,6883,1302,5682,8803,04113,42413,61213,85911,86412,94913,08013,03713,96714,499EPS (NT$)05.916.636.8530.9031.3331.6827.3029.8030.1030.0032.1533.37Source: Company data, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONALTM service consensus estimates, Cr

52、edit Suisse estimatesGlobalwafers (6488.TWO / 6488 TT)Analyst: Haas LiuIncome Statement (NT$ mn)Sales revenue12/18A59,06412/19E58,09412/20E56,95912/21E63,055Cost of goods sold36,76535,24634,36538,082EBITDA22,41522,87222,98326,682EBIT17,60017,89717,17518,777Net interest expense/(inc.)(356)(414)(140)(

53、128)Recurring PBT18,27518,55417,31518,905Profit after tax13,65513,62612,81313,990Reported net profit13,65313,61712,81313,990Net profit (Credit Suisse)13,65313,61712,81313,990Balance Sheet (NT$ mn)12/18A12/19E12/20E12/21ECash & cash equivalents35,45132,82215,08520,039Current receivables9,2268,1407,55

54、88,007Inventories7,0406,8494,5854,916Other current assets1,484600681722Current assets53,20148,41127,90933,684Property, plant & equip.30,88734,69737,87437,874Investments230536536536Intangibles3,6493,3923,3923,392Other non-current assets1,8559,5492,9182,918Total assets89,82296,58672,62978,404Current l

55、iabilities24,42222,72716,44817,193Total liabilities46,66651,51322,12522,879Total debt5,5009,8864,3214,321Shareholders equity43,13945,06750,49855,519Minority interests17666Total liabilities & equity89,82296,58672,62978,404Cash Flow (NT$ mn)12/18A12/19E12/20E12/21EEBIT17,60017,89717,17518,777Net inter

56、est356414140128Tax paid(4,620)(4,928)(4,502)(4,915)Working capital0000Other cash & non-cash items31723400Operating cash flow13,65313,61712,81313,990Capex0000Free cash flow to the firm13,65313,61712,81313,990Investing cash flow0000Equity raised0000Dividends paid(4,373)(10,881)(9,545)(8,969)Financing

57、cash flow(4,373)(10,881)(9,545)(8,969)Total cash flow9,2812,7363,2685,021Adjustments0000 Net change in cash9,2812,7363,2685,021 Per share12/18A12/19E12/20E12/21EShares (wtd avg.) (mn)437437437437EPS (Credit Suisse) (NT$)31.2331.1429.3032.00DPS (NT$)10.0025.0021.8320.51 Operating CFPS (NT$)31.2331.14

58、29.3032.00 Price (20 Mar 2020): NT$342.50Target Price: NT$450.00Rating: Outperform VCompany BackgroundGlobalwafers is a silicon wafer manufacturer with key customers spanning from 12” foundries (TSMC, UMC), 8” foundries (Vanguard and Hua Hong) and memory makers (Samsung, Hynix, Toshiba). Blue/Grey S

59、ky ScenarioOur Blue Sky Scenario (NT$) 575.92Our blue sky valuation scenario of NT$575.92 implies 18x 2021 P/E on the back of better-than-expected pricing environment vs our current assumption for +14%/+6% YoY in 2019-2020 due to stronger semiconductor wafer demand.Our Grey Sky Scenario (NT$) 383.95

60、Our grey sky valuation scenario of NT$383.95 implies 12x 2021 P/E on the back of slower-than-expected pricing environment than our current assumption and slightly lower than full utilisation due to worse semiconductor wafer demand.Earnings12/18A12/19E12/20E12/21EShare price performanceGrowth (%)Sale