國(guó)有銀行不良資產(chǎn)

1、NPLs of Chinese State-owned Banks:Current Status, Origins and Disposal MethodsM. Chen, C. Jia and X. XuGuanghua School of ManagementPeking University11Overview of Chinas Banking SectorBrief historyBefore 1979: PBC1979-84: Establishment of four SOCBs1986- : Establishment of joint-stock banks2001- : C

2、ity Commercial BanksMarket share by assets (Q3, 2004)SCOBs: 54.1%Joint-stock banks: 14.6%22NPLs of Four SOCBs 33NPLs of Four SOCBs44NPLs of Four SOCBs55Origins of NPLsPolicy loansSOEs versus private sectorHigh level of debt of Chinese companiesInterest rate controlLow base rate; lower than USA, Indi

3、a and KoreaLow spread between the deposit and lending ratesLaeven and Majnoni (2003): in 2000, China: 3.6% and average of 106 countries: 6.67%Poor management and moral hazard66YearStock issueLoan growthStock issue/ Loan growth1993314.546335.404.961994138.057216.621.911995118.869339.821.271996341.521

4、0683.333.201997933.8210712.478.721998803.5711490.946.991999897.3910846.368.2720001541.0213346.6111.5520011182.1312439.419.50Capitals Raised by Chinese Companies 772002779.7518979.204.112003823.1027702.302.97Data source: 88Reasons for the Decrease in NPLs ratioIncrease in total amount of loansIn 2003

5、, the net increase was RMB 2,770 billions (24% total loans between 1991-2003)Decrease in NPLsCapital injection by governmentTransfer of NPLs to AMCsIn Q2 of 2003, NPLs increased by RMB 18.3 billion after taking into account of NPLs transfersChange in maturity structure of loans991010Methods of NPL D

6、isposalCapital injection by governmentEstablishment of AMCsFinancing of AMCsMethods of asset disposalAuctionEquity-debt swapAsset backed securitiesIncreasingly more difficultDirect disposal by four SOCBs1111 NPL Disposal by the AMCs (As of end-Q3,2004)AMCsNPL disposedCash recovery rate(%)Huarong1745

7、.627.3520.34Great Wall1832.415.6410.56Orient966.829.9121.89Cinda1331.439.1533.20AMCs overall5876.226.79%20.46% (Source: PBC, CBRC)Asset recovery rate %1212NPLs and Financial Stability of ChinaNPLs continue to emerge in large amountThe new NPLs in the next three years will be between RMB 600 billion to 1,050 billion (Zhong, 2004). Liberalization of banking sectorCapital injection by government is becoming more limitedRapid increase in government debt1313Concluding Remarks