汽車(chē)半導(dǎo)體：電氣化的未來(lái)到來(lái)之前的周期性衰退

1、GlobalResearch13 March 2019EquitiesAutomotive SemiconductorsEquitiesSemiconductorsGlobalA cyclical slump before an electrified futureSemiconductorsGlobalThird UBS Evidence Lab consumer survey shows rising appetite for EVsWhile the Global semis industry is in the midst of a cyclical downturn with con

2、tinued riskstoearningsnear-term,webelieveabrightfutureisaheadwithelectricvehicle(EV) penetration on the cusp of inflecting. HYPERLINK /shared/d2xZKR3MxDTvf7 Our colleagues in our Global Autos team today HYPERLINK /shared/d2xZKR3MxDTvf7 published on the latest UBS Evidence Lab EV survey of 10k consum

3、ers. We found rising propensity to go all-electric, with 33% of respondents considering buying a battery-electriccar(BEV),up5%-ptsfromlastyear.WebelievetheshifttoEVwilladd$9bntoautosemis(a$42bnmarketin18)by2025,primarilybenefitingpowersemis.Three key takeaways from the survey mix shift clearly in vi

4、ewWe highlight three key takeaways from the survey: 1) Strong mix shift in view, with lowerlikelihoodofpurchasingbothgasoline(-4%pts)anddiesel(-3%pts)vs.stronger indications for both BEV (+5% pts) and hybrid (+3% pts). Plug-in hybrid was slightly down y-o-y (-2% pts), but still up strongly on a two-

5、year view (+9% pts). 2)Regionally therehasbeenasignificantincreaseinChina,JapanandKoreainlikelihoodofbuying BEV,andanimprovementinGermany,whilemomentumhasstalledintheUKandUS.3) For those who already own a BEV, their likelihood of recommending buying an EV hasimprovedstronglyto78%,upfrom57%in2017asig

6、nofimprovedsatisfaction.We continue to see earnings risk short-term for the sectorWhile we remain highly confident on the structural opportunity in the sector mid-term, wecontinuetoseeearningsrisksintoCQ2asconsensusisalreadyassumingthestart ofarecovery,whichwebelievemaytakelonger,andshort-termutilis

7、ationrateslikely needtocomedown,impactinggrossmargins.Wethinkvaluationsarereasonable(the sector has recovered from 12x to 16x 19E P/E vs a historical average of 17x), butwe wouldremainselectivegivenearningsrisksandhencestickwithstockswithstructural support.Infineon remains our preferred name in Glob

8、al Semis for EV exposureWe continue to see Infineon (Buy) as the best placed semiconductor stock globallyto play the EV theme and we believe it has likely won a significant number of the forthcoming major EV product launches. Medium-term we expect Silicon Carbide will grow in penetration (2021/2022

9、product launches) and also benefit the likes of Rohm (Neutral) and STMicro (Neutral), but near-term we expect silicon will dominate, with Infineon the leader.DavidMulholland,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:david.mulholland +44-20-75684069Francois-XavierBouvignies HYPERLINK mailto:francois.bouvignies +44-20-756

10、87105TimothyArcuri HYPERLINK mailto:timothy.arcuri +1-415-3525676Nicolas Gaudois HYPERLINK mailto:nicolas.gaudois +852-29715681Bill HYPERLINK mailto:bill.lu +852-29718360Kenji Yasui HYPERLINK mailto:kenji.yasui +81-3-52086211Shingo Hirata, CFA HYPERLINK mailto:shingo.hirata +81-3-52086224Patrick Hum

11、mel,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:patrick.hummel +41-44-239 7923David Lesne HYPERLINK mailto:david.lesne +44-20-75675815JulianRadlinger,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:julian.radlinger +44-20-75681171 HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepared by UBS AG London Branch. ANALYST CERTIFI

12、CATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ONPAGE18. UBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single

13、 factor in making their investment decision.2OUR THESIS IN PICTURESPropensity to buy BEVs keeps rising sharply72%73%72%73%69%37%33%35% 33%28%24%26%27%24%42%46%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Propensity to buy a BEV now exceeds the diesel, almost on par with plug-in hybrids, which are stalling(How likely is t

14、he vehicle you purchase going to be )GasolineBEVHybridPHEV2016 2017 2018Rising consumer satisfaction for those who own BEV100%90%80%29%40%21%70%60%78%ofrespondentswhoownaBEVwouldrecommend50%it to a friend up from 57% a year ago40%69%78%(From which brands would you consider buying30%57%a BEV?)20%10%0

15、%201620172018LikelyUnsureUnlikely2018 EV sales above expectations; 17% share in 2025E020122014201620182020E2022E2024EsieVldhrd (as)ilVVEVEV sales in 2018 have beaten our expectations by 0.2m units, driven by China and the US. We confirm our forecast of 17m annual EV sales (17% of global car sales) i

16、n 2025EV shift can add $9bn to the Auto Semis powertrain ($m)0We have written at length previously on the content opportunity for semis in the shift to EV. We estimate that over 2018-2025, the rise of electrified vehicles will add $9bn in powertrain to the $42bn auto semis market2018 2019E 2020E 202

17、1E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025EGasoline Diesel 48V/mild hybrid (gas) HEV PHEV BEV FCVSources for exhibits above: UBS Evidence Lab, UBS estimatesUBS Evidence Lab EV Survey HighlightsOur colleagues in the UBS Global Autos team have today published conclusions fromthelatestUBSEvidenceLabEVSurvey.Weincludebe

18、lowasummaryofthe markettakeawaysfromthesurveybeforeweassesswhatthismeansfortheauto semisindustry. HYPERLINK /shared/d2xZKR3MxDTvf7 FormoredetailsandimplicationsforthevariousautosOEMsplease HYPERLINK /shared/d2xZKR3MxDTvf7 see our colleagues report for more.Every third consumer now considers buying a

19、 BEVThe popularity of battery-electric vehicles (BEV), ie, cars with an all-electric drivetrain and no combustion engine, keeps increasing. In the latest flagship consumer survey about electric cars, with 9,790 respondents in six of the largest car markets (US, China, Japan, Germany, UK and Korea),

20、the share of people considerbuyingaBEV(AreyoulikelytoconsiderbuyingaBEVasyournext vehicle?) has increased by 500bps over last years survey to 33%. Other powertrains, including plug-in hybrids (PHEV), have lost popularity. For the first time, BEV have reached a level roughly on par with PHEV, and now

21、 clearly outperform diesel cars.Figure 1: Likelihood of purchase consideration by vehicle type9,790 consumers in six of the largest car markets globally surveyed by UBS Evidence Lab72% 73%72% 73%69%46%42%37%33%35%33%28%27%24%26%24%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%GasolineBEVHybridPHEVDiesel201620172018Source:

22、 UBS Evidence Lab Note: 2017 data for hybrid not availableOn a regional basis, there has been a positive trend in China, Korea, Japan and Germany.OnlyintheUSandtheUKhasmomentumstalledcomparedtothelast survey.IntheUS,thiscanbeexplainedbythefadingofEVtaxcredits(phase-out ofthefederaltaxcreditonceOEMsr

23、eachtheirvolumethreshold).China and other Asia are showing strongest positive momentum, but Germany is also warming upFigure 2: Are you likely to consider buying a BEV? (%, by region)GermanyUKUSAKoreaChina71%4071%40%17%20%18%7060504030201002016201831%Source: UBS Evidence LabThepropensitytobuyanelect

24、riccarremainspositivelycorrelatedwithhousehold income. From $200k annual household income, the share of consumers likely to buy a BEV exceeds 50%, whereas below $50k household income, only 10% of consumersarelikelytogoelectric.TranslatingthisintotheBEVsegmentsthatare likely to grow fastest, premium

25、cars are likely to outperform the mass segment. Within the mass segment, the higher-end part (vehicle prices between 20-40k) looks more likely to transition to BEV than the budget segment. This looks well synchronisedwiththeEVline-upforthenextfewyears,whichhasaskewtowards premium and higher-end mass

26、nameplates.Figure 3: Propensity to buy a BEV by household income in $Wealthierpeoplearemorelikely to go electric premium brands betterhurryupwiththeirproduct11%25%11%25%64%16%73%16%73% 11% 7%19%73% 13%19%68% 23%19%59% 29%16%55%7%19%73%13%19%68%23%19%59%29%16%55%37%18%45%56%11%33%54%8%38%53%15%32%Lik

27、elyNotsureyetUnlikelySource: UBS Evidence LabTheword-of-moutheffectprobablypositivelyinfluencesthenumberofconsumers opening up to the idea of buying an electric car. 78% of existing BEV owners surveyedarelikelytorecommendbuyinganEVtoafriend(scores8-10onascale from 0 to 10). Only 2% are unlikely to r

28、ecommend a BEV (scores 0-2). In comparison,PHEVownersareequallysatisfiedwiththeircars.Comparedtoprior years, the satisfaction rate of BEV owners hasincreased.BEV owners are happy peopleFigure 4: Are you likely to recommend buying a BEV to a friend (BEV owners, time series)?Figure 5: Are you likely t

29、o recommend buying a BEV/PHEV/HEV to a friend?100%20162%2%40%2017LikelyUnsureUnlikely2018100%2%29%2%29%2%21%57%69%78%2%1%68%68%78%78%31%22%21%AllelectricPHEVLikelyUnsureUnlikelySource: UBSEvidenceLabSource: UBS EvidenceLabFigure 6: Areas of (dis-)satisfaction of BEV owners13%3%84%13%3%84%13%4%83%Cos

30、tsofrunningthe13%4%83%17% 3%81%Fitand17% 3%81%17%70%17%70%13%22%68%9%Battery22%68%9%17%66%17%Access to17%66%17%22%64%14%Charge22%64%14%24%64%12%24%64%12%0%20%40%60%80%100%SatisfiedNeitherDissatisfiedSource: UBS Evidence LabWhat drives BEV demand, and what are the key issues?Cost and safety continue

31、to play key roles in the decision-making process for a new car purchase, and the relevance to consumers is on a stable high level over time. 66% of respondents do a simple purchase price comparison between different models. But 64% also claim they compare the total cost of ownership (TCO)includingma

32、intenanceandfuel/energycosts.OnaTCObasis,EVsusually scoremuchbettervs.ICEcarsthanonasimplestickerpricecomparison.The vehicle price remains the #1 decision-making factorFigure 7: Key factors taken into account for a new vehicle purchase66%64%39%37%66%64%39%37%33%21%18%2018201720166%Cost ofownershipSa

33、les promotion and specialoffersRecommendation fromfriendsBuy same brandagainRecommendation frommediaRecommendation fromsalesOtherSource: UBS Evidence LabFor those likely to consider buying a BEV, the priorities are not much different, as the chart below shows. Priorities of consumers are also very s

34、table over time.Figure 8: Most important factors when purchasing a BEV201720172018Purchase Safety and reliability Cost of running the carrye/iccyfcr Design and appearanceiepocoeel Longevity ofthevehicleBrand reputationTechnological capabilityEngine emissions regulation Country of manufacturing Expec

35、ted depreciationOver-the-airupgrades67%65%51%47%43%39%37%35%32%24%15%13%0%70%65%53%48%44%40%39%34%32%26%16%14%6%Source: UBS Evidence LabThemainreasonsnottobuyanEVarestillthehighpurchaseprice(54%),access tochargingstations(53%)andthelimitedrangepercharge(49%).Therehasnot been any shift over the years

36、 among these top-3factors.What holds consumers back from going electric? Price, range, chargingFigure 9: BEV pushbacks why would you not want to buy a BEV?Highpurchaseprice Limitedplug-instationsLimited range perchargeBattery Lengthycharge Technology too new LackofchoicesNot safeorreliableGovernment

37、incentives Design ofvehicleOther201754%53%49%46%40%25%15%10%9%8%4%Source: UBS Evidence LabUnsurprisingly, a lower price and a longer battery life are the key factors that wouldmakeconsumerschangetheirstanceaboutEVs.TheupcomingEVlaunches should bring significant progress in both aspects. The VW ID Ne

38、o is likely to set new benchmarks in terms of range as a function of vehicle price. Hence, we are confidentthatmoreandmoreconsumerswillbereadytojumpasnewlaunches give them more oomph for their buck.but there is strong progress made on these key factorsFigure10:FactorsthatmostpersuadetopurchaseBEVFig

39、ure 11: Range (km) vs. vehicle retail price ()Longer batterylife 51%Lower purchaseprice 50%Betterincentives27%More attractive design 10%Lower risk of driving bans 5%2017600VW NEO LR (2019)VW NEO (2019)VW NEO LR (2019)VW NEO (2019)VW NEO SR (2019)50045040035030025020015010020,00040,00060,00080,000100

40、,000Source: UBSEvidenceLabSource: Company information, UBSestimatesIn terms of price expectations, the shrinking price premium of electric car vs. an equivalent ICE car should clearly boost demand. 59% are prepared to pay the same or less for a BEV, and 35% are prepared to pay up to 20% more. Thisra

41、tio has been stable over the past few years. While there are already BEVs in the marketthatcostamaximumof20%morethananequivalentICEcar(TeslaModel 3baseversion,forexample),fullcostparityisstillafewyearsout.Figure 12: How much would you be willing to pay for a BEV?44%33%Less41%35%Stable trend for up t

42、o 20% EV premium19%41%35%Stable trend for up to 20% EV premium19%6%14%10%Same20% more201620172018ESource: UBS Evidence LabStayingwiththeVWIDNeoexample,Volkswagensaidthatthecarwillbepriced like a VW Golf diesel, ie, just below 30k incl. VAT (Germany). Also, other (upcoming) EV launches are priced now

43、 within the 20% price premium range, as the chart below shows.Figure 13: Price of key BEV launches vs. ICE sibling modelsBEV price premium vs. ICE cars to meet consumer expectationsSubcompact90-5%80706050403020212010-Hatchback+7-10%373330284038SUV-segment+3-35%806870684634VWNissanNissanVWVW ID VWAud

44、iAudiMercMercHyundaiHyundaiMEBPoloLeafQasqaiID GolfCrozzTiguane-tronSQ5EQCKonaKonaEntry (2022)(2019) (2019)(2020)(2019)(2019)EV re. 6TI (2018)Source: Company information, UBS estimatesOne key pushback on our bullish stance about EV penetration is the (lack of) charging infrastructure. While we dont

45、disagree that only consumers with the opportunity to charge either at home or at work will be among the earlyadopters, we think our penetration forecasts up until 2025 are well backed up by potential buyers who have their dedicated parking spots at home or at work. The BEV owners in the survey mostl

46、y charge their cars at home (68%), in cities or urban built-up areas (44%), or at the work/study place (39%). Compared to prior years, theshareofBEVownerschargingathomeoratworkhasincreasedsubstantially. The fast chargers alongside highways/motorways are used regularly by 30% of BEV owners. However,

47、these chargers are a key prerequisite for growing EV adoption, in our view, as owners need to be confident about longer-distance travel. A segment not captured in the survey but well-suited for BEV is the fleetCharging remains a key issue: Fast chargers alongside highways are the key issue to solve

48、near-termsegment,whichmakesupforroughlyone-thirdofEuropeannewcarsales.BEVs incorporatefleetswouldlikelyhavethechargingissuesolvedascorporateswould investinchargingattheirpremises.Additionally,fleetmanagerscareaboutTCO (whichisanareatheBEVwinsinEuropeduetohighfuelprices)andaboutCO2 fleetemissions,asl

49、argecorporatefleetsaresubjecttoemissionsreductiontargets.68%At68%Athome44%Incities/urbanareas39%At work/study30%Alongside highways22%Insuburban/ruralareas2%Other201820172016Source: UBS Evidence LabAvailabilityofchargingtiesdirectlyintotherangeexpectationsofconsumers.Two out of three respondents (64%

50、) consider a range of 300 miles (480km) per chargegoodenoughtoconsiderpurchasinganEV.Rangeexpectationshavegone up slightly compared to prior years, which might have to do with latest BEV launches that already exceed the 300 miles threshold, such as the long-range versionoftheTeslaModel3(consumerlear

51、ningcurve).Again,rangeexpectations arein-syncwithourEVpenetrationforecasts.Iftwooutofthreevehiclebuyersare happy with 480km or 300 miles per charge, they will get the range in price segments starting below 30k over the next 2-3years.Range expectations are finally met: Two-thirds of consumers are hap

52、py with 300mi/480km rangeVW LR Neo(2019)VW LR Neo(2019)TeslaModel3longrange(2017)Hyundai Kona (2018)Jaguar I-Pace (2018) VWI.D.Crozz(2020) VWNeo(2019)Porsche Taycan(2019)Audi e-tron TeslaModelS(2013) TeslaModelXTeslaModel3shortrange(2019)Nissan Leafe+ Chevy Bolt(2016)MercedesEQC VWNeoSRRenault Zoe(2

53、016)Hyundai Ioniq (2017)560560482470450450420420417416407385380360330300200Figure16:RangeofkeyBEVlaunches(km,WLTPcycle) rangeexpectationsofconsumersfinallymetRange expectations are increasingRange expectations are increasing Less80 km80 km kmto 320 km321 kmto 480 km481 kmto 650 kmMore than 650 km201

54、62018Source: UBSEvidenceLabSource: Company information, UBSestimatesHow do consumers expect a BEV to look? Just like any car, but with an electric powertrain? Or a bit more differentiated and futuristic? 42% of respondents think a BEV should look and be more innovative and advanced, whereas 58% dont

55、 wantanydesignortechexperiments.Chineseconsumersonceagainarethemost innovativegroup,whileEuropeanandUSbuyersareontheconservativeside.In thatvein,agloballysuccessfulBEVlaunchshouldlikelybringsomedifferentiation in design and tech features, but not an overdose ofeither.Figure 17: EVs should be more in

56、novative andadvancedShould BEVs look and feel different? Yes, but just a little100%44%44%46%58%60%66%68%68%56%54%42%40%34%32%32%ChinaKoreaTotalJapanGermanyUKYesNoSource: UBS Evidence LabFine-tuning our EV sales forecast: 17% in 2025 unchangedMostofthefindingsofthisyearsEVsurveysupportourbullishstanc

57、eonEVsales medium-term. 2018 actuals have exceeded our forecasts from Q3/18 in the US and China, while the EU and Japan remained moderately below our estimates. Global 2018 EV sales came in at 2.0m vs. our latest forecast of 1.8m. As a consequence,ournear-termforecastisrevisedupwardsmainlybecauseofC

58、hina, where we forecast 70% growth y/y in 2019. We expect EU sales to pick up sharplyin2020/21asOEMswouldmisstheCO2fleetemissionstargetswithouta substantiallyhighershareofEVsinthemix.Thiswilllikelyincludehigherincentives on(margin-dilutive)plug-inhybridcars.WhileconsumersurveyresultsinGermany andUKd

59、ontsupportour28%EVpenetrationforecastfortheEUin2025yet,we highlight that roughly one-third of EU new car sales is fleet business, which is predominantly cost of ownership and CO2 driven. The survey captures predominantly the retail segment.Our 2025 EV sales forecast of 17.2m or 17% of global new car

60、 sales remains broadly unchanged. Compared to half a year ago, when we last refreshed our forecasts,therehasntbeenanybigunexpectedshiftinpolicy,norhaveEVlaunch plans surprised either way.2018 EV demand beat our expectation by 0.2m vehicles, mainly due to China and the USFigure 18: EV sales by region