農(nóng)業(yè)：從長(zhǎng)計(jì)議國(guó)人飲食之變

1、 HYPERLINK / 18July HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 本報(bào)告僅供 HYPERLINK / 18July HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 本報(bào)告僅供 HYPERLINK mailto:kol.yu kol.yu HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 使用 HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Story in charts5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Investment summary6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Pricing forecasts and supply/demand bala

2、nce HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Summary of stocks HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 agriculture sector: A macro sustained growth ahead HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 ASF and global protein: tighter for longer24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 dietary pattern in transition: Not more, but better34 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Chinese suppl

3、y:Transformation needed43 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Global supply responses: Feeding rising imports57 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Pricing and margin outlook: Strong margin outlook for animal protein, best risk reward in cornkol_yu_ghsl_cn HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 China sub-sector 1: Live hog breeding and cul

4、tivation88kol_yu_ghsl_cn HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 China sub-sector 2: Feed HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 China sub-sector 3: Animal health HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 China sub-sector 4: Seeds HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 Stock picks: China and globalDisclosure AppendixList of contributing authorsTrina Chen List of

5、 contributing authorsTrina Chen | +852 2978-2678 | HYPERLINK mailto:trina.chen trina.chen | Goldman Sachs Asia LLCBrian Dai, CFA | +86 21 2401-8944 | HYPERLINK mailto:brian.dai brian.dai | Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Adam Samuelson | +1 212 902-6764 | HYPERLINK mailto:adam.samuelson a

6、dam.samuelson | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Michael Peet | +61 2 9321-8528 | HYPERLINK mailto:michael.peet michael.peet | Goldman Sachs Australia Pty LtdLuca Cipiccia | +1 212 357-4335 | HYPERLINK mailto:luca.cipiccia luca.cipiccia | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLCLincoln Kong, CFA | +852 2978-6603 | HYPERLINK

7、mailto:lincoln.kong lincoln.kong | Goldman Sachs Asia LLCTheodora Lee Joseph, CFA | +44 20 7051-8362 | HYPERLINK mailto:theodoralee.joseph theodoralee.joseph | Goldman Sachs InternationalSophie Carran | +61 2 9321-8582 | HYPERLINK mailto:sophie.carran sophie.carran | Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

8、Jordan Shimabuku | +1 801 741-5447 | HYPERLINK mailto:jordan.shimabuku jordan.shimabuku | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Yuqing Li | +852 2978-7347 | HYPERLINK mailto:yuqing.li yuqing.li | Goldman Sachs Asia LLCAnnabel Hazlitt | +44 20 7051-7375 | HYPERLINK mailto:annabel.hazlitt annabel.hazlitt | Goldman

9、Sachs International本報(bào)告僅供 HYPERLINK mailto:kol.yu kol.yu 使用本報(bào)告僅供 HYPERLINK mailto:kol.yu kol.yu 使用11%CAGRformilk&milkproductimportsinthelastfew years24%higher daily consumption in grain equivalent terms, whenChinaupgradesitsanimalproteinconsumptionto thesamelevelasJapanandKoreaSUPPLY CONSTRAINTS AND

10、OPPORTUNITIES45%percentageofChinaporkoutputcoulddeclinefrom normallevel,byendof2020,assumingASFcomes under control in2H191.8xhigher yield in soybean in China vs. US30%morepotentialyieldgaincanbeachievedintheoryfor Longpings hybridriceGLOBAL SUPPLY, TRADE, AND PRICES7-42%oftheagriculturesupplyaretrad

11、edgloballytoday,and couldgrowby12-51%duetoincreasingimportsfrom Chinainthecomingyears31%oftheAmazonmaybeconvertedtoagricultureuseby 2050, from current 17%, if land expansion in Brazil growsatover1%ayear40%ofproductioninChinaislabour,whichgrew4xinthe pastdecade,vs.3-5%labourcostsintheUSandBrazil HYPE

12、RLINK / Source: HYPERLINK / Source:FAO,USDA,NBS,GoldmanSachsGlobalInves85%ofChinabeefconsumptiongrowthfrom2018tolong term,40%ofwhichwouldneedtocomefromimports+4%growthinnon-porkmeatChinesedemandfromChinain 1Q19,whileporkapparentdemanddeclinedby5%,on thebackofAfricanSwineFever(ASF)xkol_yu_ghsl_cnChin

13、asuseofnitrogen-basedfertilizerperhectareof land vs. globalkol_yu_ghsl_cn0-2.5%negativeclimateimpactoncropyieldoveradecade, reported byIPCC150 xfaster seeding operations using drone-based seeding versus traditional manual seeding in China34-60%gaps between global supply and China demand may emerge,

14、without a yield revolution, if Chinese consumption upgrades are reached by 2030, while global land expansion is likely to remain disciplined100%higherproductioncostsforChinesecornandsoybean vs. US andBrazil60-100%pricehikesinglobalsoybeanandcornpricesin2007- 08and2011-12,whensupplydeficitwas2-8%duet

15、o drought4本報(bào)告僅供 HYPERLINK mailto:kol.yu 4本報(bào)告僅供 HYPERLINK mailto:kol.yu kol.yu 使用10 THINGS THAT MAY SURPRISE YOU1Chineseconsumersonaverageeathalfapigperyear(37kgs),8chickenseachyear,and have1steak(200g/steakorequivalentbeef)and1cartonofmilkeverytwoweeks12Americanconsumersonaverageeat0.4pigperyear(30k

16、gs),30chickenseachyear,and have1steak(200g/steakorequivalentbeef)and1.5cartonsofmilkeverytwodays23TheaveragedailyfoodconsumptionofChineseconsumersrequires680gofgrainsto producevs.1700gforaverageAmericanconsumers34kol_yu_ghsl_cnWhile1kgofbeefhasthesamecalorificvalueas0.8kgofcorn,ittakes8-10kgoffeed (

17、cornandsoybeanmeal)toproduce1kgof4kol_yu_ghsl_cn51kgofpoultryconsumes2kgofgrainand3,000litresofwaterover35days,whereas1kgof beeftakes365daystoproduceandconsumes4-10kgofgrainand16,000litresofwater56A broiler can grow to 4kg in 56 days, and a piglet can grow to a 11kg hog in 6 months67AUSdailycowin198

18、5couldproducearound6,000kgofmilkperyearandtodaycan produce around 10,000kg peryear7Asiaand40%Asiaand40%of89Total grain-equivalent imports into China in 2018 is equivalent to importing over 50mn9hectare or 40% of arable land in ChinaWastewater (COD) discharges due to small-scale pig farming could lea

19、d to 12mnt ofunreported pollutants, equivalent to 110% of the reported COD emissions in ChinaSource: FAO, USDA, NBS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchStory in chartsExhibit 1: Daily food consumption pattern - China versus peersDaily food g/day/person2018LTChinaJapanKoreaUSBrazilChina (LT)Anim

20、al proteinPigmeat Poultry Meat Fish, Seafood MilkBeefTotal grain-equivalent (soybean/corn)102381059117680626213320327724Daily food g/day/person2018LTChinaJapanKoreaUSBrazilChina (LT)Animal proteinPigmeat Poultry Meat Fish, Seafood MilkBeefTotal grain-equivalent (soybean/corn)102381059117680626213320

21、3277241095514586479438314959735101173436128304181041340916214914831842CerealRiceWheat1991761651231701252021484151183159Source: FAO, Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchExhibit 2: China pork supply and pricing outlookTheimpactofASFonglobalsupplyislikelytobelongeranddeeper thanexpected,leadingtoas

22、trongpricingandmarginoutlookExhibit3:Theimportrequirementofgrain-equivalentcropfrom China, versus major global supplyadditionskol_yu_ghsl_cnGlobaldecitinmeetingChinesedemandislikelytopersistuntilbasedonlandexpansionprojectsbykol_yu_ghsl_cnsoybean-equivalentcorn-equivalentsoybean-equivalentcorn-equiv

23、alentChgs in grain-equivalent imports to China versus exports of key countries (2018-LT) (mnt) 80.0Pork pricePork production yoy20%10%0%-10%-20%1Q113Q111Q113Q111Q123Q121Q133Q131Q143Q141Q153Q151Q163Q161Q173Q171Q183Q181Q193Q19E1Q20E3Q20E1Q21E3Q21E0.0New zealand Australia BrazilUSChinaSource:CEIC,Goldm

24、anSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchSource: Goldman Sachs Global InvestmentResearchExhibit 4: Chinas food demand outlook - 2018 versus LTFood balance to be addressed through both domestic supply and higher importsDomestic supply Net importsAnnual demand - China (in 10 mnt, except

25、 beef in mnt) 50.0Domestic supply Net imports40.030.020.010.0Beef-2018Beef-LTMilk eq-2018Milk eq-LTSoybean-2018Soybean-LTCorn-2018Corn-LTSoybean-eq-2018Soybean-eq-LTCorn-eq-2018Corn-eq-LT0.0Beef-2018Beef-LTMilk eq-2018Milk eq-LTSoybean-2018Soybean-LTCorn-2018Corn-LTSoybean-eq-2018Soybean-eq-LTCorn-e

26、q-2018Corn-eq-LTExhibit 5: Agriculture drones empower farmers for precision seeding-XAG,aprivateChineseagriculturetechnologyPrecisionfarmingmaytransformtheproductivityoftheagriculture sectortoanewlevel HYPERLINK / 18 HYPERLINK / 18July本報(bào)告僅供 HYPERLINK mailto:kol.yu kol.yu 使用Source: FAO, Goldman Sachs

27、 GlobalInvestmentResearchSource: CompanysiteInvestment summaryIn the coming decades, a fundamental transformation will take place in agriculture demand for major crops is set to continue its growth, as food structure shifts towards higher intake of animal protein. With resources fully stretched, and

28、 costs moving to nearly twice as high as peers, China is unlikely to address its food balance on its own. a long-term solution has to be a combination of enhancements in innovation-driven yield gains internally, and higher imports from the global market, with the potential for long-term supply decit

29、s and higher pricing.view agriculture sector as attractive in terms of cyclical pricing the of African Swine (ASF) and weather in the US as well as structurally higher pricing in the long run. What is more intriguing are the stronger growth opportunities within the driven by supply consolidation, fo

30、od upgrades, and the rising penetration of new technologies and products that deliver as the sector transformation takes place.kol_yu_ghsl_cnprefer companies with a strong intrinsic growth outlook, in addition to pricing, by: 1) market shares gains in the course of consolidation or rising penetratio

31、n due to product upgrades; and/or 2) technology innovation that delivers attractive economics for rapid user adoption. While the availability of publicly traded companies may not cover the full spectrum of investment opportunities at this stage, we will continue to monitor thekol_yu_ghsl_cn HYPERLIN

32、K / 18 HYPERLINK / 18July本報(bào)告僅供 HYPERLINK mailto:kol.yu kol.yu 使用As a result of ASF, we expect Chinese hog production to bottom between late 2020 to mid-2021, assuming ASF comes under control in 2H19ASF and global protein supply: Tighter and longerIn the near term, the global impact of ASF is likely

33、to be longer and deeper than expected. Since Aug when China reported the rst case of we note that the total number of sow herd and hog herd has reduced by a quarter. Based on theof pig farming, we expect Chinese hog production to continue to decline, and may reach bottom between late 2020 to mid 202

34、1, at 30-45% below the normal level, under the assumption that the disease comes under control in 2H19. The depressed pork supply will likely also lead to higher demand for other animal proteins as and subject to available supply response, yet is unlikely to fully offset the overall shortage in anim

35、al protein supply in the coming two years, in China and globally.LT dietary pattern in transition: Not more, but betterexpect rising agriculture demand in China in the coming years, as continuedincome growthandurbanizationdriveashiftinfoodconsumptionpatterns.Theshift,is not about more food, but a ch

36、ange in food structure towards higher intake of animal protein, including more high-end protein as beef and milk. The multiplier of basiccropsrequiredtoproduceanimalprotein,andtherisingindustrialfeedpenetration rate, will likely boost basic crop demand.Benchmarking with North Asian peers, we estimat

37、e Chinas long-term dietary patterns would lead to grain-equivalent demand (in both direct and animal protein forms) in China to grow by 40-60% for soybeans (from 110mnt currently to 158-180mnt in the HYPERLINK / 18July HYPERLINK / 18July本報(bào)告僅供 HYPERLINK mailto:kol.yu kol.yu 使用Rising demand imposes gr

38、eater stress on food supply, with the climate and environment adding more challengesCalls for acceleration in non-input-based productivity gains will likely intensifylong-term), depending on the penetration of industrial feed, and a similar growth rate for corn. The increase in the grain-equivalent

39、demand would represent 5-7% of the global market (in the LT) by our estimates, and the higher import demand from China would potentially boost global trade volume by 12-51% on major agriculture commodities, assuming all else equal. Specically, we expect rising beef and milk imports to China to boost

40、 global trade by 40-50% in the coming years, followed by an increase of over 20% from pork, soybeans, and corn.Supply: Transformation neededkol_yu_ghsl_cnStructural demand trends will likely impose stress on domestic agriculture supply and tighten global agriculture resources and supply over the lon

41、g term, in our Ongoing supply disruptions, including events as changing trade tariffs, epidemics as African Swine (ASF), as well as long-term factors of climate changes and the environment, combined with the perishable nature of agriculture products, adds further challenges to food supply and disloc

42、ation in food prices through the cycles. for acceleration in non-input-based yield gains or fundamental transformations, as new plant/seed breeding technology and precision farming practices for global and Chinese agriculture will likely be more intensive thankol_yu_ghsl_cnRising demand will impose

43、greater stress on food after all the “l(fā)ow-hanging fruit” (including land and input-based yield gains) has been taken perhaps to the detriment of resources and the environment. Challenges are also present in climate changes, and an environment that is struggling to withstand the continued use of an i

44、nput-based approach to yield gains. The (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) work suggests a 0-2.5% negative climate impact on crop yields over a decade in the past, and for Celsius degree increase in global mean temperature, the projected global production of corn and soybeans would be reduc

45、ed by and 3.1%, respectively. In China, despite the intensive use of fertilizer and pesticides, further improvements have been muted in recent years. supply growth will likely be more constrained as China steps up efforts to control deterioration in its soil and water 2/3 of the ground water and 30%

46、 of surface water is of poor quality, and 19.4% of arable land does not meet national standards, due to the presence of major pollutants as ammonia nitrate, heavy metals, DDT and aromatic hydrocarbons, on ofcial reports from the MEE (Ministry of Ecology and Environment).Calls for acceleration in non

47、-input-based yield gains will likely intensify. Based on data from United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), we estimate the contribution of non-input based yield gains or real productivity gains for the global market would need to accelerate by 40%, from the past average of 0.9% each

48、year to 1.2% annually, to meet the future potential of 50% growth in global crop demand.Innovation-driven solutions are emerging, as new plant/seeds technologies that focus on developing new seed traits within a given species through genetic engineering special report, “Innovation - feeding the worl

49、d”), and precision farming practices may lead to a revolution in yields, potentially 70% yield gains based on our US estimates ( HYPERLINK /content/research/en/reports/2016/07/13/6e4fa167-c7ad-4faf-81de-bfc6acf6c81f.pdf Precision Farming: Cheating Malthus with Digital Agriculture), while reducing th

50、e use of fertilizer and HYPERLINK / 18 HYPERLINK / 18July本報(bào)告僅供 HYPERLINK mailto:kol.yu kol.yu 使用We see upside risk in LT pricing, given the potential decit emerging, noting similar decits in2007-2008 and 2011-12 ledto 60-100% rise in soybean and corn pricesThe supply challenges ahead are more for Ch

51、ina. In addition to its stretched resources, productioncostsformajorcropsandanimalproteinshavemovedfromonparnearly twice the level of other major agriculture countries since As a result of rapid urbanization, land costs and unit-labor wages in farming have increased nearly 4x over the past decade, n

52、ow accounting for over 40% of the production cost, versus 3-5% in US and Brazil. In the long run, it is unlikely that China can address its future food balance on its own. the long-term solution will likely be a combination of enhanced non-input based yield improvements from internal domestic and hi

53、gher imports from the global agriculture market.kol_yu_ghsl_cnThe high level of supply stress in China provides more opportunities and incentivizes easier adoption for agriculture technology and innovation for example, hybrid rice seeds, an ongoing 30-year development of Longping High have seen 35%

54、yield improvements since the with the potential to deliver 30% more. And according to a private Guangdong-based agriculture technology rm, the company is using drone-based technology and data to help over 4.7mn farmers grow crops smartly, sustainably, and According to its Granule Spreading System ca

55、n project the demanded dosage of seeds and fertilizer uniformly into the required eld, kol_yu_ghsl_cnOn a global basis, we see certain potential sources of further supply growth in major agriculture supply countries, including the US, Brazil, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Yet supply additions

56、are unlikely to meet demand without challenges. We estimate the aggregated grain-equivalent supply additions from major agriculture suppliers may reach 40-70mnt for corn and 20-50mnt for soybeans between2030-2050E in China, or 5-19% of the current global market. Versus the grain-equivalent Chinese i

57、mport requirement of 50-63mnt, global supply is likely to remain in a decit between 2030-2050, depending on the pace of Chinese demand growth, land supply in Brazil, and any meaningful revolution in yields. We see upside risk for long-term pricing we estimate the potential supply decit could reach a

58、s deep as 34-60% below Chinese import demand, equivalent to 2-8% of the decit in global supply, in a downside-case scenario assuming the current pace of Chinas consumption upgrade is maintained and Brazil land supply is disciplined. Similar decits in 2007-2008 andled to surges in soybean and corn pr

59、ices of 60-100% due to drought and in biofuel.Given the unique nature of agriculture commodities, there are tangible and intangible barriers for global trade, including food safety (disease control) and political considerations (tariffs) as well as logistics. Nevertheless, trade and new parity price

60、s would mostly nd their to bring supply to demand, in ourBased on the higher import tariffs imposed in recent months, we estimate the current China CIF (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) price of imports remains attractive for soybeans, corn, and beef from South America, and for pork from the EU. Import