馬來西亞策略：是時候實現(xiàn)希望了

1、EQUITIESTop overweight stocksEQUITIESTop overweight stocksPrice12m tgtTSRNameTicker(lcy)(lcy)(%)RecTenagaTNBMK13.7615.8020%OPPChemPCHEMMK7.428.5018%OPIHH Healthcare IHH MK5.736.4413%OPCIMBCIMB MK5.036.1528%OPSimeDarbySDPLMK4.915.309%OPPlantationTelekom Msia T MK3.754.2717%OPMsiaAirportsMAHBMK8.0710.

2、5033%OPTopGloveTOPGMK4.374.9716%OPGamudaGAM MK3.694.3024%OPRanhillRAHHMK1.251.7042%OPMynewsMNHB MK1.331.8439%OPClosing price as at 29 October 2019.Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, October 2019InsideTime to deliver ontheHope3Macro headwinds mitigated bygovernment16Political limbotoend?AnalystsM

3、acquarie Capital Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd.Prem Jearajasingam +60 3 2059 8989 HYPERLINK mailto:prem.jearajasingam prem.jearajasingam1November 2019MalaysiaMalaysia StrategyTime to deliver on the HopeKey pointsKey points Government policy resets and investments to catalyse economy and spur rerati

4、ng of key stocks despite global macro headwinds Likely leadership change in 2020 unlikely to change outcomes but may lead to changes at GLCs Key picks skewed towards policy reform, investment uptick, global thematic leaders, weak RM and consumption plays.Opportunities in the roughHaving spent the be

5、tter part of 2018 and 2019 seemingly in hibernation, the Malaysian governments participation in the economy is set to pick up from its lowest growth levels in 15 years (2020E +1.4% from -1.3%) and kick-start investments by the private sector. We believe this, coupled with ongoing reform efforts aime

6、d at improving transparency and efficiency, will be key thematics for stock picking in Malaysia into 2020. Global macro headwinds and a likely change in leadership remain key risks, while an increasing focus on ESG investing will provide new twists. While we remain underweight Malaysia regionally, w

7、e see stock picking providing outperformance vs our end-20E KLCI target of 1731.Return of the governmentAn expansionary Budget 2020, recent announcements around the RM22bn National Fibrerisation and Connectivity Plan (NFCP) and anecdotal evidence of the government procurement machine restarting agai

8、n, suggest the newsflow the market has long desired may now be upon us. In addition to nameplate projects such as the ECRL, PTMP and MRT3, we expect increased newsflow on water related and East Malaysian infrastructure projects to spur the construction sector benefiting Gamuda and Ranhill. A ramp up

9、 in Petronas spend also brings further respite to oil & gas players. The uptick in activity should also bode well for SMEs which make up 82% of the economy and provide the banking sector (and CIMB) with an uptick in corporate lending which are at cycle lows of 90% of Tenagas current market cap.Labou

10、r laws and rising minimum wages mitigates some of the inequality issuesFor Tenagas generation business, we note that by end 2019, 52% of Tenagas coal capacity will be from Ultra Super Critical plants which are about 10% more efficient than their previous coal plants. Environmental control technology

11、 meanwhile reduces SO2 and NOx production substantially (up to 70%) vs the previous generation plants. With the internal restructuring set to be completed by end-2020, we would expect a physical separation of Tenaga in 2021/2022 to unlock further shareholder value and mitigate the ESG related drag.B

12、est practices for board representation, improved labour compensation (rising minimum wages) and protection, improved occupational health and safety standards etc have gone some ways in reducing the risks of Malaysian companies falling foul of ESG rules in other categories. We do note that the use of

13、 illegal foreign labour is an issue in the country with between 3.9-5.5m undocumented migrant workers vs 1.8m legal workers (LINK). According to the Malaysian mobile operators in recent results calls, there has been a reduction in the number of subscribers amongst migrant workers, suggesting that nu

14、mbers are reducing. Listed companies most exposed to foreign labour for their labour force are plantations, construction and glove manufacturers, while telcos and consumer companies generate a significant portion of their revenues from this group.Since 2018 all listed companies are required to have

15、Sustainability Reports in their Annual Reports. Fig 22 below summarises what is important to each company where they specifically identify goals based on the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Many of the companies which have not specifically defined their goals based on the SDGs, have very

16、 detailed action plans and targets.Fig 22 What is important to companies under our coverage based on the United Nations 17 Sustainable Development GoalsESG Principle1234567891011121314151617BanksMaybank11111111111Public BankCIMB111111111111111GlovesHartalegaTop GloveConsumerPetronas Dagangan1111111B

17、AT MsiaPadini111111MynewsKarexQLResourcesConstructionGamuda11111111IJM Corporation1111111111SunCon11111111111111Kerjaya ProspekEconpileGabungan AQRS111111111HSS Engineers111HealthcareIHH Healthcare111111MediaAstro11111Oil & GasPetronas ChemicalBumi ArmadaSapura EnergyMISCDialog GroupPlantationsSime

18、Plantations1KL KepongProperty1111111SP Setia11111Eco World Development111111MRCBSime Darby PropertySemicon/Tech11111111111Inari Amertron111111111111Vitrox Corp.TelcosMaxisAxiata Group1111111111DiG11111111Telekom Malaysia111111111111Time dotComTransportationMalaysia Airports111111111111111WestportsAi

19、rAsia GroupUtilities/EnergyTenaga Nasional1111Petronas GasGas MalaysiaRanhillTotal74151714862016101316124599The table above has taken data from company annual reports. ALL companies have Sustainability Statements in line with Bursa Malaysias reporting requirements. The table reflects companies respo

20、nses where they explicitly identify their goals based on the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals.Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, October 2019KLCI underperformed regional peers in 2019Valuations - Cheaper but still at a premium to Emerging ASEAN peers albeit with attractive yieldsWe maintai

21、n our view that Malaysia is a stock picking market. The KLCIs 7% decline YTD has put valuations just below historical averages on a PER basis and has left 12-month forward dividend yields at just above historical averages.Fig 23 KLCI trading below its historical mean 12-monthforward PERsFig 24 And j

22、ust above on dividendyieldsx24.05.0%22.020.018.016.014.012.0Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Nov-13 Jun-14 Jan-15 Aug-15 Mar-16 Oct-16 May-17 Dec-17 Jul-18 Feb-19 Sep-1910.0Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Nov-13 Jun-14 Jan-15

23、 Aug-15 Mar-16 Oct-16 May-17 Dec-17 Jul-18 Feb-19 Sep-19+2STD: +1STD: Avg: 17x-1STD:14x-2STD: 12x4.5%4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19+2

24、STD:4.4%+1STD:4.0%Avg:3.5%-1STD:3.1%-2STD:2.7%Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research,October2019Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, October2019Local funds likely tobekeysupport newsflow picksDespite its underperformance against regional bourses, KLCI valuations relative to other ASEAN markets rema

25、ins at a premium relative to its growth profile. With large domestic institutions backed by sizeable monthly inflows, these premiums we believe will continue to prevail. We do note that these institutions have been increasing their exposure to regional and global markets in recent years, but with si

26、gnificant net inflows monthly (according to EPFs Annual Report 2018, the average net inflow in 2018 was US$478m/month), they will remain a key support for valuations and in our view, the uptick in activity levels that we are projecting for 2020, should see increased participation from thesefunds.On

27、a positive note though, the fall in government bond yields coupled with lower equity prices have pushed dividend yields above the 10-year bond yields, joining the likes of Singapore and Thailand.Fig 25 12-month forward PER largely in line with emerging Asean peersFig 26 But positive yield spreads vs

28、 10-year bond yields provide good basex 302520151050MalaysiaThailandIndonesiaSingaporePhilippinesCurrent PERAverage+1STD-1STDYld7.1%4.3%4.6%3.3%3.6%3.4%2.4%1.7%1.5%1.8%8.0%7.1%4.3%4.6%3.3%3.6%3.4%2.4%1.7%1.5%1.8%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%SingaporeThailandMalaysiaPhilippinesIndonesia 12 month fw

29、ddivyield10yr govtbondyieldspreadSource: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research,October2019Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, October2019Fig 27 Foreign ownership of Malaysian equities has fallen 1.2ppt since May 2018. Annual lows typically seen in Dec/Janwith peaksin2Q.Fig 28 Foreign flows have been larg

30、ely negative since201327.026.025.024.124.023.022.022.921.020.01510GE13GE1427.026.025.024.124.023.022.022.921.020.01510GE13GE1450-10Foreign in/(out)flow1MDB scandalhits-15Jan-07 Aug-07 Mar-08 Oct-08 May-09 Dec-09 Jul-10 Feb-11 Sep-11Jan-07 Aug-07 Mar-08 Oct-08 May-09 Dec-09 Jul-10 Feb-11 Sep-11Apr No

31、v-12 Jun-13 Jan-14 Aug-14 Mar-15 Oct-15 May-16 Dec-16 Jul-17 Feb-18 Sep-18Apr-19Foreign ownership approaching lows. Typical lows in Dec/Jan with highs in 2Q.Foreign ownership of Malaysia equities has taken a hit since their post GFC peaks in 2013, after the 13th General Election brought about by the

32、 1MDB debacle. Flows improved in 2016/17 but took a hit post the 14th General Election due to uncertainties from the change in leadership, muted earnings growth and what we believe to be ESG related issues for some large cap stocks such as Tenaga and the plantations sector. As at end Sept 2019, fore

33、ign ownership of the Bursa Malaysia had declined 1.2pt to 22.9% as at end September 2019 from its recent peak of 24.1% in May 2018. We believe a turnaround in newsflow from increased government and economic activity into 2020 will see this figure rise again. Since 2015, we have seen low points of 22

34、.3% in January 2016 and January 2017, with annual peaks typically seen in 2Q.Still underweight Malaysia from a regional context but the preferred Emerging ASEAN marketFig 29 Malaysia least underweighted amongst Emerging Asean peers from a regional perspectiveHong -3-2-10123Source: Macquarie Research

35、, October 2019Malaysia underweightedamongstEM AseanpeersMacquaries Head of Asian Strategy, Viktor Shvets, remains underweight Malaysia from a regional perspective, albeit within Asean, Malaysia is the least underweight amongst EM Asean, within his latest market allocation tilts (see Fig 29 above).Fi

36、g 30 OECD Leading IndicatorhasturnedFig 31 The Chinese Credit Impulse has alsoturned1.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct

37、-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19-2.0Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19

38、25Cycle 1Cycle 2Cycle 320Cycle 1Cycle 2Cycle 3151050-5-10Oct-06 Oct-06 May-07 Dec-07 Sep-09 Apr-10 Nov-10 Jun-11 Jan-12 Aug-12 Oct-13 May-14 Dec-14 Sep-16 Apr-17 Nov-17 Jun-18 Jan-19Aug-19OECD total Y/YOECD total - 6 month rate of changeSource: Macquarie Research,October2019Source: Macquarie Researc

39、h, October2019From a global perspective, Viktor sees Central Banks (CBs) forced to expand their balance sheets in order to keep growing. However, each liquidity pulse is likely to have lower efficacy, eventually morphing into a world of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) and Neo-Keynesian dominated models

40、. These models ultimately rely on the state to drive the economy. Localisation rather than globalisation becomes the norm. Interestingly the Pakatan Harapan governments push to fix inequalities amongst the populace, developing rural economies, improving governance structures, and increasing governme

41、nt expenditure play into this thematic.Fig 32 G4+Swiss M2 supply showing YoY growth20%15%10%5%0%-5%Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19Jul-19Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14

42、Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19Jul-19Fig 33 G4+Swiss Balance Sheets have finally started to expand YoY as well30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Ja

43、n-18 Jul-18 Jan-19Jul-19Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19Jul-19G4+SwissG4+Swiss(YoY)Source: Macquarie Research,October2019Source: Macquarie Research, October2019Viktor had gone into 2019 expecting 2020

44、 to be a better year as CBs did too much to stimulate. The reality is that while reflationary measures have bottomed out (LINK) and beginning to turn in recent months, CBs are treading water rather than pushing all the levers necessary to drive the previously expected jump. As such he believes that

45、value stocks will probably do well for a while, it is neither likely to be prolonged nor strong. He continues to stick with a bias towards Quality Sustainable Growth (QSG) and Thematics.Fig 34 Viktor Shvets Quality, sustainability, growth thematics and Malaysian candidatesTheme 1: Replacing Humans.

46、Robots, Industrial Automation & AITheme 5: Education & SkillingVITROMKVitroxNSEGIMKSEGInternationalPENTAMKPentamasterNRTheme 2: Augmenting Humans: Genome/Biotechnology/DNATheme 6: Demographics : Funeral parlours, Psychiatric centresIHHMKIHH GroupOPTheme 3: Opium of the people: Games, casinos/ Virtua

47、l RealtyGENMMKGentingMalaysiaNRTheme 4: Bullets and Prisons: Defence, security, prisons/correctionSource: Company data, Macquarie Research, October 2019Theme 7: Disruptors & FacilitatorsMYEGMKMYEGServicesNRMacro headwinds mitigated by governmentFig 35 Private consumption and investments have support

48、ed GDP growth even as public spending weighed in 2018/19Fig 36 Trade and manufacturing the key contributors to GDP growth with construction showing the biggest changeRMbn80%60%40%20%0%RMm4.8%Mining & quarrying4.8%Agriculture Construciton Govt services ManufacturingREAL GDPOtherservices Finance & ins

49、uranceServicesTransport & storageICTWholesale & retail trade-20%10A 11A 12A 13A 14A 15A 16A 17A 18A 19E 20EConsumption Public InvestmentPublicConsumptionPrivateReal estate & business serviceF&B0%2%4%8%10%InvestmentPrivateNetexportsInventories2020F2019FSource: MoF, Macquarie Research,October2019Sourc

50、e: MoF, Macquarie Research, October2019Construction the biggest shiftThe Malaysian government is projecting a GDP growth of 4.8% for 2020, in line with Macquaries estimates. Underpinning the governments growth projection is increased private sector investments, and at least a positive contribution (

51、+1.4% YoY) from the public sector, which contracted in 2019 (-0.4%). Understandably it is projecting the trade surplus to contract on the back of the ongoing trade war between the US and China. In its outlook for 2020, the government is once again projecting that retail/wholesale trade (25%) and man

52、ufacturing (19%) will be key contributors of growth. However, the sector with the biggest shift in growth trajectory is construction, which is projected to grow 3.7% in 2020 from 1.7% in 2019. Also contributing growth to the overall GDP forecast in 2020 is the projected 30m (+7% YoY) tourist arrival

53、s projected for Visit Malaysia Year 2020.Fig 37 Government revenue to expand 4.8% in 2020 (ex- special dividends) on higher direct tax revenuesFig 38 Spending up 7% as procurement to resume post 2019 lull.RM bn 300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,0000RM bn 300,00002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201

54、6 2017 2018 2019 20202008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020Direct taxIndirect taxNon-tax revenuePetronas dividendEmolumentsRetirmentchargesDebt serviceGrants/trf to state govtSupplies & servicesSubsidies & social assistanceAsset acquisisotnRefunds/wirte offsGrants to stat bodiesOthersS

55、ource: MoF, Macquarie Research,October2019Source: MoF, Macquarie Research, October2019Fig 39 Budget deficit in 2020 to reduce to 3.2% but still above previous target of 3.0% of GDP-3.6-3.3 -3.2-3.4 -3.2 -3.1 -3.0-3.4 -3.2-3.8-3.7-3.6-3.3 -3.2-3.4 -3.2 -3.1 -3.0-3.4 -3.2-3.8-3.7-4.3-4.3-4.8-4.8-5.4-6

56、.7-1.0-2.0-3.0-4.0-5.0-6.0-7.0-8.0Fig 40Direct taxes up on greater enforcement. SPVDbags RM6bn in added taxrevenuesbn143117 121127130 136112110116968278 79RMbn143117 121127130 136112110116968278 791401201000CompanyIndividualPetroleumOthersSource: MoF, Macquarie Research,October2019Source: MoF, Macqu

57、arie Research, October2019Direct taxes to rise5%in 2020butIn light of the uncertain global trade outlook, the government has rightfully increased its budget deficit target for 2020 from its previous target of 3.0% to 3.2%. Dividends from Petronas, which saw a surge in 2019 from a RM30bn special divi

58、dend used to fund GST and income tax refunds, are set to normalise in 2020.Where we see the biggest increase in revenues is direct taxes, which are projected to increase 5.2% as the government tightens up on collections. Interestingly, the government has declared that the recently concluded Special

59、Program for Voluntary Disclosure netted the government RM6bn in added direct tax revenues from individuals and companies adding to the tax base in 2019/2020.Fig 41 Only 5% of Malaysian companies subjected to tax in 2017Subject to tax 5%only 5% of companies subjectedtotax(2017)Not registered IRB38%Re

60、gistered with IRB but not subject to tax 57%Source: MoF, Macquarie Research, October 2019Tax Reform Committee findings by Jan 2021Additionally, the government is undertaking a holistic tax review exercise with a Tax Reform Committee set up in 2018. The aim is for updates to the tax structures in the