航空業(yè)深度研究：識別最大機會

1、COREAerospaceOrder Book Deep Dive - Identifying MAX Risk & Much MoreAhead of the Paris Airshow, our analysis of Airbus & Boeing backlogs identifies airlines that are over- or under-ordered. Specifically, for MAX, we see 28% of backlog as high risk.INDUSTRY UPDATEU.S. Aerospace & DefensePOSITIVEUncha

2、ngedU.S. Aerospace & Defense David Strauss+1 212 526 5580Equity Research6 June 2019Backlogs 10% under-ordered: To evaluate the health of the commercial aircraft backlog, we estimate aircraft demand (growth plus replacement) individually for each of 500+ airlines globally. Assuming 5% fleet growth an

3、d a 4% annual replacement rate, we estimate the airlines and aircraft lessors in aggregate are under-ordered by 1,000 aircraft, equivalent to 10% of the total backlog. See included list of individual airlines that we identify as most over (AirAsia, Lion Air, VietJet, Emirates and IndiGo) or under- o

4、rdered (Air China, American, China Southern, Delta and United).More under-ordered than last year: At 10%, we estimate the backlog is more under- ordered than last year (6%), and the most under-ordered since prior to the financial crisis, as the overall backlog declined for the first time since 2010

5、while underlying demand drivers (traffic growth and replacement) remain supportive. Our model indicates that prior aerospace downturns have all been preceded by over-ordering, albeit with the last downturn (post 9/11) at a relatively low level of over-ordering.Backlog by aircraft model: We estimate

6、backlogs at both Airbus (-9%) and Boeing (- 8%) are under-ordered. By individual aircraft model, we see under-ordering for 787 (- 42%), A330 (-40%), A350 (-31%), A220 (-27%), 737 (-6%) and 777 (-6%), whilebacklogs look over-ordered for A320 (+2%), E2 (+3%) and A380 (+24%).28% of MAX backlog at high

7、risk: While the 737 backlog is under-ordered in aggregate, we identify several airlines that are over-ordered and we believe at risk to defer/cancel on back of MAX grounding/safety concerns. Specifically, we identify 28% of the backlog as high risk, which reflects customers that we estimate are over

8、-ordered with mixed fleets (Airbus/Boeing). We estimate that these customers are over-ordered by 750 aircraft (30% of the backlog). This includes Lion Air, VietJet and Singapore.North America/Europe most under-ordered; Asia/Middle East over-ordered: By geography, we see the largest amount of under-o

9、rdering in North America (1,800 aircraft) and Europe (800), while the largest airlines appear over-ordered in Asia (ex- China) by 700 aircraft, and the Middle East by 500. China appears under-ordered in our analysis (1,100 aircraft), although we believe that a portion of the 1,700 aircraft orders fr

10、om unknown customers are from China. HYPERLINK mailto:david.strauss david.strauss BCI, USMatt Akers, CFA+1 212 526 9019 HYPERLINK mailto:matt.akers matt.akers BCI, USKate Copouls, CPA+1 212 526 3283 HYPERLINK mailto:kate.copouls kate.copouls BCI, USal n rten I-d e tc itr sReDear Client: We appreciat

11、e your consideration in the Institutional Investor All-America & All-Canada Research Team 2019 Survey. To view our analysts, please HYPERLINK /publiccp/RSR/nyfipubs/II/II_AllAmerica-Canada-Equities_external_roster_2019.pdf click here.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks

12、to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.PLEA

13、SE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 37.Analyzing the OEM BacklogsOur commercial aerospace backlog analysis compares the growth and replacement needs of 500+ individual airlines with the number of aircraft on order by each. Our analysis indicates that the airli

14、nes (and leasing companies) are under-ordered by 10% in aggregate or 1,000 airplanes.At 10%, we estimate the backlog is more under-ordered than last year (6%), and the most under-ordered since prior to the financial crisis, as the overall backlog declined for the first time since 2010 while underlyi

15、ng demand drivers (traffic growth and replacement demand) remain supportive. Our model indicates that the backlog has consistently been under- ordered since 2003 following an extended period of relatively low orders (as percentage of fleet) during the preceding 10-15 years.FIGURE 1Historical Fleet O

16、ver/Under-Ordering vs Net Orders % of Fleet30%20%10%0%-10%198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019-20%25%20%15%10%5%0%Total Fleet Over/Under OrderingNet Orders % of Fleet (RHS)Source:

17、Cirium, Company reports and Barclays ResearchFor each airline, we forecast total demand over the duration of the backlog, which we currently estimate at 7-8 years for narrowbody aircraft and 5-6 years for widebodies based on planned production rates. Overall, we estimate total demand over the durati

18、on of the backlog at 2.8M seats (14,500 aircraft), equivalent to 64% of the current fleet. By comparison, the current backlog stands at roughly 2.6M seats (13,500 aircraft), implying under-ordering of 1,000 aircraft or 10% of the backlog on seats.Breaking down the backlog by airline, we estimate the

19、 top 50 customers that represent58% of the backlog are under-ordered by roughly 900 aircraft, including 800 narrowbodies and 70 widebodies. Meanwhile we estimate the remaining 475 airlines in our analysis have under-ordered by 3,600 aircraft, including 2,900 narrowbodies and700 widebodies, for total

20、 airline under-ordering of about 4,500 aircraft. In addition, the aircraft leasing companies have ordered 3,400 aircraft, mostly narrowbodies, which ultimately will be allocated back to the airlines. Including these lessor orders, we estimate the global backlog is under-ordered by roughly 1,000 airc

21、raft.FIGURE 2SeatsAircraftSeatsAirlinesTotalWidebodiesAircraftNarrowbodiesAircraftSeatsAirlinesBacklog Analysis Global SummaryTop 50 AirlinesOver-ordered282,205373,90011380126,3472,585500,248Under-ordered21(3,020)(512,049)20(450)(149,627)(3,469)(661,675)Neither100190000Total Top 5050(815)(138,148)50

22、(70)(23,279)(885)(161,428)Other AirlinesOver-ordered291,634277,0272719765,4211,830342,447Under-ordered361(4,556)(772,659)133(852)(283,524)(5,409)(1,056,183)Neither83003130000Total Other Airlines473(2,923)(495,632)473(655)(218,104)(3,578)(713,736)All AirlinesOver-ordered573,839650,92738576191,7684,41

23、5842,695Under-ordered382(7,576)(1,284,707)153(1,302)(433,151)(8,878)(1,717,858)Neither84003320000Total - All Airlines523(3,737)(633,780)523(725)(241,383)(4,463)(875,163)Leasing Companies3,217545,48922073,0553,436618,544Total Over/Under Ordering(521)(88,291)(506)(168,328)(1,027)(256,619)% of total ba

24、cklog-5%-26%-10%Source: Cirium and Barclays ResearchOur base case assumes the global airline fleet grows at a 5% CAGR over our forecast period and that the largest airlines, which traditionally have taken delivery of new aircraft, will replace 4% of their installed base each year. A lower fleet grow

25、th assumption or lower replacement rate would decrease our demand forecast and decrease our estimate of under- ordering, while higher growth/replacement would make the backlog appear more under- ordered.FIGURE 3Over-Ordering (% of Fleet) Sensitivity to Growth and Replacement AssumptionFleet GrowthRe

26、placements4.00%4.25%4.50%4.75%5.00%5.25%5.50%5.75%6.00%3.0%13%9%6%2%-2%-5%-9%-13%-17%3.5%9%5%1%-2%-6%-10%-14%-17%-21%4.0%5%1%-3%-6%-10%-14%-18%-22%-25%4.5%1%-3%-6%-10%-14%-18%-21%-25%-29%5.0%-3%-6%-10%-14%-17%-21%-25%-29%-33%Source: Barclays ResearchTo justify the current number of aircraft in the b

27、acklog at our base case 4% replacement rate, we estimate the fleet would need to grow at 4.3% CAGR (5% traffic CAGR) over the next several years, 70 bps below our base case assumption.FIGURE 4Replacement Assumption vs. Fleet Growth Needed to Balance Backlog with DemandBase Case6%Required Fleet Growt

28、h5%4%3%2%1%0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%Replacement Rate4.5%5.0%5.5%Source: Cirium and Barclays ResearchBreaking down the backlog by aircraft model, we see under-ordering for most models, including 787 (under-ordered by 42%), A330 (40%), A350 (31%), A220 (27%) and 737/777 (6%), while backlogs appear over-order

29、ed for A320 (+2%), E2 (3%) and A380 (24%). While our analysis indicates greater under-ordering for widebodies (vs. narrowbodies), we believe some part of this could represent narrowbodies being substituted for widebodies given extended range and greater efficiency of newer narrowbody models.FIGURE 5

30、Growth Needed to Balance Backlog with Demand and Over/Under Ordering by Model3.2%2.9%2.5%2.5%4.6%4.5%5.2%5.1%7.1%8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%A380E2A320Family737777A220A350787A33030%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%Implied Fleet GrowthOver/Under-OrderingSource: Cirium and Barclays Research. Note: Assumes 4% replace

31、ment rate.By region, we see the largest amount of under-ordering in North America (1,800 aircraft) and Europe (800), while the largest airlines appear over-ordered in Asia (ex-China) by700 aircraft, and the Middle East by 500. China appears under-ordered in our analysis (1,100 aircraft), although we

32、 believe that a portion of the 1,700 aircraft orders from unknown customers are from China.FIGURE 6Over/Under Ordering by Region (Aircraft Equivalents)482376641,683521707591,1051,752(1,027)3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000(500)(1,000)(1,500)Unknown Asia exChinaMiddle EastLessorsLatin AmericaAfricaE

33、uropeChinaNorthAmericaTotal - NetOver-OrderedUnder-OrderedSource: Cirium and Barclays Research. Assumes 195 seats per aircraft.Assuming 4% replacement as a percent of the installed base, we estimate the fleet would have to grow at roughly 7-8% CAGR to justify the number of aircraft currently on orde

34、r from the Middle East and Asia ex-China, well above our assumption at 5% overall fleet growth. Meanwhile the backlogs for North America, China and Africa appear to only satisfy replacement demand, factoring in little if any fleet growth.FIGURE 7Implied Fleet Growth By Region in Backlog9%8%7%6%5%4%3

35、%2%1%0%-1%-2%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Middle EastAsia exChinaLatin AmericaEuropeAfricaChinaNorthAmericaImplied GrowthBacklog % Fleet (RHS)Source: Barclays ResearchLooking at the 500+ global airlines, we estimate AirAsia, Lion Air, VietJet, Emirates and IndiGo are most over-ordered and could potenti

36、ally cancel or defer orders. Meanwhile we estimate Air China, American, China Southern, Delta and United are most under-ordered, and that these airlines could potentially place further orders.FIGURE 8Most Over-Ordered Airlines (on Seats)Over/Under Ordering (Seats)Over/Under Ordering (% of Backlog)Ba

37、cklog by ManufacturerAirlineRegionNarrowbodyWidebodyTotalNarrowbodyWidebodyTotalAirbusBoeingAirAsiaAsia ex China45,85217,79863,65070%81%73%100%0%Lion AirAsia ex China55,20977655,98474%45%73%44%56%VietJet AirAsia ex China46,908046,90881%n/a81%41%59%Emirates AirlineMiddle East046,68546,685n/a51%51%32%

38、68%IndiGoAsia ex China36,212036,21257%n/a57%100%0%flydubaiMiddle East34,775034,77584%n/a84%0%100%NorwegianEurope28,755(132)28,62391%-9%87%50%50%Qatar AirwaysMiddle East6,13519,32125,45655%40%43%40%60%Singapore AirlinesAsia ex China6,99914,07021,06963%45%50%39%61%Etihad AirwaysMiddle East1,91117,1741

39、9,08436%57%54%36%64%SpiceJetAsia ex China16,565016,56570%n/a70%0%100%GoAirAsia ex China13,380013,38073%n/a73%100%0%GOLLatin America11,627011,62754%n/a54%0%100%Wizz AirEurope9,61609,61642%n/a42%100%0%FlynasMiddle East9,39809,39875%n/a75%100%0%Moxy AirwaysNorth America7,80007,800100%n/a100%100%0%Pegas

40、usEurope6,42906,42944%n/a44%100%0%VivaAerobusLatin America6,39606,39661%n/a61%100%0%EasyJetEurope6,29606,29631%n/a31%100%0%StarLuxChina06,0036,003n/a100%100%100%0%Source: Barclays ResearchFIGURE 9Most Under-Ordered Airlines (on Seats)Over/Under Ordering (Seats)Over/Under Ordering (% of Backlog)Backl

41、og by ManufacturerAirlineRegionNarrowbodyWidebodyTotalNarrowbodyWidebodyTotalAirbusBoeingAir ChinaChina(66,566)(17,516)(84,082)-2912%-1466%-2415%54%46%American AirlinesNorth America(63,810)(17,247)(81,057)-179%-238%-189%47%46%China Southern AirlinesChina(75,626)(1,679)(77,306)-949%-13%-373%57%43%Del

42、ta Air LinesNorth America(65,573)(10,592)(76,165)-158%-77%-138%97%1%United AirlinesNorth America(55,568)(15,301)(70,868)-193%-73%-142%28%68%Air France-KLMEurope(27,400)(14,480)(41,880)n/a-105%-304%64%36%Southwest AirlinesNorth America(39,438)0(39,438)-94%n/a-94%0%100%International Airlines GroupEuro

43、pe(25,865)(9,543)(35,409)-205%-38%-94%70%30%LATAM AirlinesLatin America(24,665)(7,323)(31,988)-290%-111%-212%86%14%LufthansaEurope(21,711)(9,986)(31,697)-406%n/a-593%0%100%China Eastern AirlinesChina(29,372)(2,272)(31,644)-1304%-32%-340%58%42%SaudiaMiddle East(6,712)(22,507)(29,219)n/an/an/an/an/aRy

44、anairEurope(27,385)0(27,385)-125%n/a-125%0%100%Hainan AirlinesChina(18,555)(7,168)(25,723)-3771%-344%-998%49%51%Cathay PacificAsia ex China(3,237)(15,669)(18,907)n/a-113%-136%37%63%Thai Airways InternationalAsia ex China(536)(16,470)(17,006)n/an/an/an/an/aAlaska AirlinesNorth America(15,427)0(15,427

45、)-145%n/a-145%46%54%SkyWest AirlinesNorth America(15,361)0(15,361)-154%n/a-154%0%0%Air CanadaNorth America(4,471)(10,461)(14,932)-37%n/a-124%49%51%China AirlinesAsia ex China(3,019)(11,442)(14,461)n/an/an/an/an/aSource: Barclays ResearchSince our analysis from a year ago, several airlines now appear

46、 more over-ordered (or less under-ordered), led by VietJet Air, Lufthansa and TUI fly, mostly driven by new orders.FIGURE 10Airlines More Over-Ordered/Less Under-Ordered Since our 2018 AnalysisOver/Under Ordering (Seats)Last YearNowChange(Seats)Change(AC Equivalents)VietJet Air23,77246,90823,136119L

47、ufthansa Group(20,349)(7,635)12,71465TUI fly(7,820)6128,43343Lion Air47,98155,9848,00341Southwest Airlines(45,227)(39,438)5,78930Turkish Airlines(2,897)2,8755,77230United Airlines(74,395)(70,868)3,52718JetBlue Airways(5,470)(2,196)3,27417International Airlines Group(37,349)(35,409)1,94110GOL10,40811

48、,6271,2196Source: Barclays ResearchOn the other hand, several airlines led by Etihad and American now appear more under- ordered (less over-ordered), driven by order cancellations as well as deliveries.FIGURE 11Airlines More Under-Ordered/Less Over-Ordered Since our 2018 AnalysisOver/Under Ordering

49、(Seats)Last YearNowChange(Seats)Change(AC Equivalents)Etihad Airways36,03919,084(16,955)(87)American Airlines(64,753)(81,057)(16,304)(84)SkyWest Airlines(982)(15,361)(14,380)(74)IndiGo46,66836,212(10,456)(54)Singapore Airlines29,99521,069(8,925)(46)Qatar Airways32,34725,456(6,891)(35)AirAsia69,36863

50、,650(5,718)(29)GoAir18,33413,380(4,954)(25)China Southern Airlines(74,508)(77,306)(2,797)(14)China Eastern Airlines(29,344)(31,644)(2,300)(12)Source: Barclays ResearchOur analysis does not account for every fleet planning idiosyncrasy across the 500+ different operators we have analyzed. For instanc

51、e:-Emirates has historically taken aircraft out of service well before typical replacement age. As a result, its replacement need could be higher than we forecast.-Delta Air Lines has historically met a portion of its aircraft demand with used equipment. As a result, its need for new aircraft may be

52、 smaller than we forecast.While many such nuances exist on an individual airline basis, we believe they mostly offset when considering the fleet in aggregate. To illustrate, by retiring aircraft early, Emirates increases its own need for aircraft. At the same time, the airline taking delivery of the

53、se mid- life aircraft is reducing its own demand for new planes by the same amount. Similarly, the used aircraft that will fill part of Deltas aircraft need come from other airlines that are increasing their own demand by divesting the same amount of capacity.FIGURE 12Over/Under Ordering Adjusted fo

54、r Leases Top 50 Airlines in Backlog (Sorted by Backlog Size)Over/Under Ordering (Seats)Over/Under Ordering (% of Backlog)Backlog by ManufacturerAirlineRegionNarrowbodyWidebodyTotalNarrowbodyWidebodyTotalAirbusBoeingEmirates AirlineMiddle East046,68546,685n/a51%51%32%68%AirAsiaAsia ex China45,85217,7

55、9863,65070%81%73%100%0%Lion AirAsia ex China55,20977655,98474%45%73%44%56%IndiGoAsia ex China36,212036,21257%n/a57%100%0%Qatar AirwaysMiddle East6,13519,32125,45655%40%43%40%60%VietJet AirAsia ex China46,908046,90881%n/a81%41%59%Delta Air LinesNorth America(65,573)(10,592)(76,165)-158%-77%-138%97%1%

56、United AirlinesNorth America(55,568)(15,301)(70,868)-193%-73%-142%28%68%Lufthansa GroupEurope(8,570)935(7,635)-44%4%-17%67%33%Turkish AirlinesEurope3492,5262,8751%16%7%58%42%American AirlinesNorth America(63,810)(17,247)(81,057)-179%-238%-189%47%46%Singapore AirlinesAsia ex China6,99914,07021,06963%

57、45%50%39%61%Southwest AirlinesNorth America(39,438)0(39,438)-94%n/a-94%0%100%flydubaiMiddle East34,775034,77584%n/a84%0%100%International Airlines GroupEurope(25,865)(9,543)(35,409)-205%-38%-94%70%30%Etihad AirwaysMiddle East1,91117,17419,08436%57%54%36%64%NorwegianEurope28,755(132)28,62391%-9%87%50

58、%50%JetBlue AirwaysNorth America(2,196)0(2,196)-9%n/a-9%100%0%SpiceJetAsia ex China16,565016,56570%n/a70%0%100%Wizz AirEurope9,61609,61642%n/a42%100%0%ANA-All Nippon AirwaysAsia ex China(3,365)(4,369)(7,734)-55%-28%-35%27%67%RyanairEurope(27,385)0(27,385)-125%n/a-125%0%100%GOLLatin America11,627011,

59、62754%n/a54%0%100%China Southern AirlinesChina(75,626)(1,679)(77,306)-949%-13%-373%57%43%QantasAsia ex China4,798(7,735)(2,937)26%-445%-14%91%9%EasyJetEurope6,29606,29631%n/a31%100%0%AviancaLatin America3,635(2,180)1,45619%-251%7%96%4%GoAirAsia ex China13,380013,38073%n/a73%100%0%Garuda IndonesiaAsi

60、a ex China(181)(1,312)(1,494)-1%-33%-9%52%48%Japan AirlinesAsia ex China(2,727)(2,030)(4,757)-93%-16%-31%69%12%LATAM AirlinesLatin America(24,665)(7,323)(31,988)-290%-111%-212%86%14%PegasusEurope6,42906,42944%n/a44%100%0%Cathay PacificAsia ex China(3,237)(15,669)(18,907)n/a-113%-136%37%63%Air France