政經(jīng)專業(yè)資格考下講義

1、ABriefofNewNeoclassicalRationalRealBusinessABriefofNewNeoclassicalRationalRealBusinessNewNewFormally adopts the rational expecionsgeneralequilibriumframework,atthesame time maains the Keynesian features by aming imperfect competition as well as price and espelly wage stickiness New Neoclassical(-Key

2、nesian) SynthesisKydlandandPrescott:Businesscyclesdrivenbytechnologyshocks,builtonthe flexible-price amption and omitting any role of monetary policyOver time, the emphasis switched from identifying business cycle driving for)to methodological contributions: macro ms with micro foundations and ratio

3、nal ions DSGE frameworkLucas: Mainstream Keynesian ms useless for policyysisfortheyfailedtotake ions seriously (Lucas critique, Lucas, 1976)Lucas: If priare flexible, monetary policies matters only to the extentsurprises the market (Lucas, 1973)SargentandWallace:Systematicmonetarypoliciesaimedatstab

4、ilizingtheeconomy doomed to failuresince no way to fool the market systematicallyFriedman:Permanentehypothesis,underminingKeynesianconsumptionfunction and therefore fiscal multiprFriedmanandSchwartz:Economicinstabilityattributedtoineptmonetarypoliciesin contrast to the Keynesian animal spirits story

5、, calling for simple policy rulesFrideman:Nolong-runPhillipstrade-off,heshortrunduetomoneySolow:Long-rungrowthdrivenbytechnologicalKeynes:Nominalrigidities,insufficientaggregatedemand,discretionarypolicies Hicks, Modigliani: IS-LM-(PC) mfor classroom teachingKlein:LargesbroughttodataandusedforChen,Y

6、i:Theinnerloticofthedevelopmentof戰(zhàn)主使用大型reduced-form模型進(jìn)行Chen,Yi:Theinnerloticofthedevelopmentof戰(zhàn)主使用大型reduced-form模型進(jìn)行政策分理性了式政策分析方法的合理政策分析必須預(yù)期的內(nèi)生性和模型的微觀基真實(shí)商業(yè)周期理論提出了第一代滿足理性預(yù)期假設(shè)、具有嚴(yán)格微觀基礎(chǔ)的宏觀模型，其貢獻(xiàn)主要體現(xiàn)在方法上，忽視現(xiàn)實(shí)特征，回避模型在嚴(yán)格意義上的經(jīng)驗(yàn)擬合，提出以校準(zhǔn)為基礎(chǔ)的定量研究方法，其理論不具有任何政策含義向量自回歸模型與早期主使用的）經(jīng)驗(yàn)宏觀模型相比在數(shù)據(jù)描和等方面取得了巨大進(jìn)步，至今仍是reduce

7、d-form經(jīng)驗(yàn)宏觀研究新理論接受了真實(shí)商業(yè)周期理論的方法，但強(qiáng)調(diào)不完全競爭和名義剛性等的重要性，重視模型的經(jīng)驗(yàn)表現(xiàn)，強(qiáng)調(diào)理論的政策含義，即便存在結(jié)論的穩(wěn)健性隨著計(jì)量工具和計(jì)算能力的改進(jìn)，對以模型為代表的DSGE模型進(jìn)行參數(shù)估已，模型的經(jīng)驗(yàn)表現(xiàn)亦堪比reduced-form模型，但仍具有明顯3NewClassicalsvs.NewClassicalsvs.New4Fresh-vs.SaltwaterFresh-vs.Saltwatereconomics,nocleardivide5New6New6acro?Microysisshouldemployswithacro?Microysisshou

8、ldemployswith Thesemakesibleyzebothshort-runfluctuationsandlong-growthwithinasingleconsistenthisrespect,themethodological stanceoftheNewClassicalschool etheNotrefersolelytothelcaseofsofperfectequilibriumwithfullyflexiblewagesand7acro?PuttingstoItisdesirabletoacro?PuttingstoItisdesirabletoiveysisonec

9、onometrically sMethodsforthesticsimulationoftimationofstructurals,andforsunderhypotheticalpolicies,arealpartthemodernmacroeconomiststoolExemplifiedbytheworksofChristiano,EichenbaumandEvans(JPE,SmetsandWouters(AER,Relativelyatheoreticalmethods,suchastheestimationofunrestrictedms,continuetobeimportant

10、and8acro?Itisimportanttoysistoionsasendogenous,acro?Itisimportanttoysistoionsasendogenous,and,inparticular,itlinoaccountthewayinwhichshouldchangeternativepolicy SeewhytherationalionsrevolutionisarevolutionItdoesnot,however,tstabilizationpolicyissarilyOnecannotimpleanswerabouttheeffectsofagivenpolicy

11、 independentofwhethertheactionipatedornot,persistentorandoftheentions of9acro?RealbusinessRealareanacro?RealbusinessRealareanimportantsourceofeconomicfluctuations;tfluctuationscanbelargelyattributedtoexogenousonetarypolicyhasfew ifanyremainingBut“real”do notmeansolelythe“technology emphasizedbytheRB

12、C Meanwhile,thetpurely monetaryarenotthesourceofbusinessfluctuationsdoesnotttheyare acro?MonetaryMonetarypolicyiseffective,llyasaacro?MonetaryMonetarypolicyiseffective,llyasameansofinflationInfactcentralsdida fairly good he1980sand1990s(knowntheGreatModeration, butfollowedbytheGreatInflationcanbeinf

13、luencedbyrealfactorsPhillipscurveislevel of pritmonetarypolicy istheultimatedeterminateofdoesntsarilyt aredetermined bytyofmoney,tinflationcontrolneedsmoneysupplyScientistsexplorehowtheworldworks,engineerssolveScientistsexplorehowtheworldworks,engineerssolveMiw(JEP,2006):macrowasbornnotasasciencebut

14、asanengineering; macroeconomistsofthepastseveraldecadeshave beenerestedytictoolsandestablishingtheoreticalprinciples;however,toolsandprincipleshavebeenslow to findtheiro erestinglybutnotsurprisingly,(New)Keynesiansweremorelikelyenwerethosehe NewClassicalMiw(JEP,2006):neitherscientistsnorengineershav

15、eaclaimtogreatertheworldneedsmacroeconomistsofbothDebatesonthecurrenteofKrugman(2009)HowdideconomistsDebatesonthecurrenteofKrugman(2009)Howdideconomistsgetitso-MacroeconomistsareblindtoheoriesandfrictionsinKeynesiantheoryisstillthebestonetounderstandMacroeconomistsmistakebeautyfortruth(toosandsCochr

16、ane(2009)How didKrugmangetitso-Prettymuchallwehavengfor30yearsroducingflawsand-EinsteinrevisedNewton,but diddusbacktoveenough-TherealproblemtweSolowetal.(2010),Solow(JEP,-ObjecttoDSGEChen,Yi:Some批評是廉價(jià)的，批評Chen,Yi:Some批評是廉價(jià)的，批評應(yīng)建立在理解的基礎(chǔ)上，批評須有建設(shè)性：替代方案是什辯證數(shù)學(xué)的使用：定量政策研究只能依賴于結(jié)構(gòu)性模型（無論是政策效果評還是最優(yōu)政策分析），而結(jié)構(gòu)必須在重

17、要的方面接近現(xiàn)實(shí)，正是現(xiàn)實(shí)的復(fù)雜性決定了數(shù)學(xué)的大量使用；換言之?dāng)?shù)理方法其實(shí)是內(nèi)生的決定于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究對象，舍此無路可走；批評宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)脫離實(shí)際數(shù)學(xué)事實(shí)上是！不應(yīng)該學(xué)習(xí)主流理論；不適用softhemainstreamCreditandlmarkets,importanceofsofthemainstreamCreditandlmarkets,importanceoflUnemployment,importanceoflabor-marketGoodsmarketsandMacroeconomiceffectsofassetpleteinformation,asymmetricinformat

18、ion,rational Bounded Chen,YisthoughtsonMsay,insomesituationsthebestway,toexpressingChen,YisthoughtsonMsay,insomesituationsthebestway,toexpressingMscomparative(a) makingcausalityclear(makingt“then”reallyfollows(b) MMsareywrong,anberelativelysaretobe used, not HenriTheil,Principles ofEssentially,allsarewrong, butsomearethepracticalquestionishowwrongdo theyhavetobetonotbe eE.P.Box,Empirical-BuildingandResponseItist thebiggerthesare,theBlanchard(2008)TheeBlanchard(2008)TheeofChariandKehoe(JEP,2006)Modernma