高瑞特衛(wèi)星節(jié)目講義配銷與供應(yīng)鏈

1、當(dāng)前文檔修改密碼：8362839 HYPERLINK xxxx/ 001GOLDDRATT SATELLLITE PROGRRAM高瑞特衛(wèi)星節(jié)目目SESSIONN 4第四講DISTRIBBUTIONN AND SUPPLLY CHAAIN配銷與供應(yīng)鏈Good too see you aagain and ffor thhose wwho arre hidding bbehindd thiss cameera goood too imaggine yyou aggain.很高興又見(jiàn)面了了。至于攝影影機(jī)背后的觀觀眾，很高興興又能想象你你們?cè)谑湛?。Distribbutionn. 配銷。The fir

2、rst thhing tto reaalize is thhat allmost all ffunctiions iin thee orgaanizattion aare immpacteed by distrributiion. 首先要了解，組組織內(nèi)全部的的功能幾乎都都受到配銷所所影響。So letss not thinkk abouut ok, we aare inn prodductioon or we arre in healtthcaree, we shoulldnt care aboutt disttributtion. 不要認(rèn)為我們是是生產(chǎn)業(yè)或醫(yī)醫(yī)療業(yè)，就不不必關(guān)心配銷銷。Dis

3、tribbutionn impaacts aalmostt everrybodyy. 配銷幾乎影響每每個(gè)人。We are goingg to ssee too whatt exteent prroducttion iis imppactedd by ddistriibutioon, muuch moore thhan peeople imagiine. 我們會(huì)看到，配配銷對(duì)生產(chǎn)帶帶來(lái)的影響，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超乎人們所所能想象。Even iff you are mmaybe the ffirst link in thhe suppply cchain, whicch meaans yoou suppply

4、tto sommebodyy elsee, whoo suppply too someebody else, thenn suppply too the markeet thrrough the ddistriibutioon. 即使你是供應(yīng)鏈鏈的第一環(huán)，也也就是說(shuō)，你你供應(yīng)給某個(gè)個(gè)人，他再供供應(yīng)給某個(gè)人人，然后透過(guò)過(guò)配銷供應(yīng)到到市場(chǎng)上。You aree impaacted dramaaticallly byy disttributtion. 你也會(huì)深受配銷銷影響。And nott lesss impoortantt you can iimpactt disttributtion, not j

5、just ccan- mmust. 很重要的一點(diǎn)是是，你也可以以影響配銷，不不只是可以以，而是必須。If you are ffor exxamplee in hhealthh caree, howw can you bbe imppactedd by ddistriibutioon? 如果你是在醫(yī)療療業(yè)，怎么受受配銷所影響響呢？How mucch of the hhealthh caree induustry, how much of thhe cosst is drugss, meddicinees? 在醫(yī)療業(yè)中，藥藥品占總成本本的多少？Have yoou notticed that thi

6、s is soomethiing liike 300% of the ttotal amounnt of moneyy? 你是否注意到大大約是總金額額的30%？And if the ddistriibutioon is not hhandleed corrrectlly it can bbring you tto youur kneees. 如果你無(wú)法正確確處理配銷，可可能就會(huì)一敗敗涂地。And bessides everyyone oof us from time to tiime gooes too a shhop, wwe aree impaacted by diistribbution

7、n. 此外，我們每個(gè)個(gè)人偶爾會(huì)去去商店買東西西，所以也會(huì)會(huì)受到配銷影影響。So evenn for a genneral underrstandding oof howw comee thatt we aare cooming and wwe wannt thiis whiite shhirt aand wee cannnot fiind itt.即使我們想買白白襯衫，而卻卻找不到也是是配銷的事。You knoow theere iss one thingg thatt I miiss duue to this progrram- iit is whitee shirrts. 你知道嗎？這個(gè)個(gè)

8、節(jié)目我唯一一沒(méi)穿過(guò)的是是：白襯衫。Distribbutionn. 配銷。This iss by tthe waay onee of tthe moost diifficuult suubjectts to underrstandd. Beccause theree are so maany pooints of viiew onn it. 順帶一提，配銷銷是最難了解解的主題之一一，因?yàn)槲覀儌兛梢詮暮芏喽嘤^點(diǎn)來(lái)看配配銷。It is tthe pooint oof vieew of the ssuppliier too the distrributiion.可以從供貨商的的觀點(diǎn)來(lái)看配配銷。It i

9、s tthe pooint oof vieew of the oone innside the ddistriibutioon, foor exaample, in cchargee of aa regiional ware-housee. 可以從配銷通路路內(nèi)人員的觀觀點(diǎn)來(lái)看，例例如負(fù)責(zé)區(qū)域域倉(cāng)庫(kù)的人。It is tthe pooint oof vieew of the cclientt and everyybody thinkks thaat alll the otherrs donnt knnow whhat thhey arre doiing. 也可以從客戶的的觀點(diǎn)來(lái)看，而而每個(gè)人認(rèn)為為

10、其它人都不不知道自己在在做什么。And if he orr she wouldd havee beenn in cchargee of tthe whhole tthing, theyy can do muuch, mmuch bbetterr. 如果是由他來(lái)負(fù)負(fù)責(zé)整件事，就就可以做得更更多、更好。It is aamazinng to what extennt peoople tthink so abbout eeveryoone whho is in diistribbutionn.令人驚訝的是，大大家對(duì)配銷通通路中的其它它成員竟抱持持這種看法。It is aamazinng, itt is

11、 nnot juust toop mannagemeent thhat thhinks like that. 實(shí)在令人驚訝，不不只是高階主主管會(huì)這么想想。That iff theyy woulld havve beeen in chargge of the wwhole thingg it wwould have been much betteer. 他們都認(rèn)為如果果由自己來(lái)全全權(quán)負(fù)責(zé)整件件事，情況就就會(huì)好很多。Even thhe lowwest ppersonn in tthe pyyramidd is ttotallly connvinceed thaat if he woould hha

12、ve mmanageed it, it wwould have been much betteer. 即使在金字塔最最底部的人，都都深信如果由由他來(lái)管理，情情況就會(huì)好很很多。Why is it? 為什么會(huì)這樣呢呢？Maybe tthe beest waay to look on itt and see tto whaat exttent tthe oppportuunity here for tthe immproveement or thhe prooblem is biig, iss by aaskingg someebody in thhe disstribuution chainn-

13、howw muchh inveentoryy do yyou haave? 也許最能看到改改善機(jī)會(huì)或問(wèn)問(wèn)題嚴(yán)重性的的方法，就是是問(wèn)一下配銷銷通路中的某某個(gè)人：“你你持有多少存存貨？”Usuallyy the answeer is, letss say so maany miillionns of dollaars. 答案通常是：幾幾百萬(wàn)美元。Many tiimes hhe doeesnt give the aanswerr in ddollarrs whiich iss actuually lookiing inn the past and ssayingg how much did II i

14、nveest inn haviing thhe invventorry. 很多時(shí)候，他給給的不是金額額，不是回首首過(guò)去，說(shuō)他他投資了多少少錢買這些存存貨。But he is loookingg to tthe fuuture and hhe is telliing yoou- wee havee 6 weeeks iinventtory. 而是展望未來(lái)，他他會(huì)說(shuō)：“我我們有六周的的存貨?！盬hy do I calll it lookiing too the futurre? 為什么我稱這種種說(shuō)法為展望望未來(lái)呢？Becausee actuually he saays- iinventtory t

15、that II holdd is ssufficcient to coover 66 weekks of consuumptioon. 因?yàn)閷?shí)際上他說(shuō)說(shuō)的是：“我我持有的存貨貨足以提供六六周的消費(fèi)量量。”But wheen youu reallly loook innto deetailss of tthis 66 weekks invventorry, yoou willl finnd outt thatt somee itemms aree 0 inn stocck, thhey haave ruun outt totaally, some otherr itemms theey havv

16、e enoough ffor thheir ggrandcchildrren. 但是如果你看一一下這六周存存貨的明細(xì)，會(huì)會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)有些商商品的存貨是是零，有些商商品卻多到足足以留給他們們的孫子使用用。And thiis is calleed on averaage 6 weekss. 這叫做平均六周周的存貨。Of courrse, eeverybbody iis awaare off it aand thhat iss why everyybody is coonvincced wee can do muuch, mmuch bbetterr. 當(dāng)然，每個(gè)人都都知道這個(gè)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)象，所以他他們深信自己己

17、可以做得更更好。Lets usse thee techhniquees thaat we have alreaady leearnedd in oorder to unndersttand tthe maaze thhat iss happpeningg in ddistriibutioon andd why the pperforrmancee is ssuch tthat nnobodyy is hhappy with. 讓我們利用之前前學(xué)到的技巧巧，來(lái)了解配配銷的難題，以以及為什么大大家都對(duì)結(jié)果果不滿意的原原因。For thaat letts usee the 5 foccusingg

18、stepps thaat we have learnned inn sesssion 22. 我們利用第二講講學(xué)到的五個(gè)個(gè)專注的步驟驟。Remembeer, whhat waas thee firsst steep, allways? 還記得，步驟一一永遠(yuǎn)是什么么？Identiffy thee systtems consttraintt.指出系統(tǒng)的限制制。Identiffy thee thinng, thhat iff you had mmore ffrom iit youu woulld havve morre thrroughpput, yyou woould hhave ssold mm

19、ore. 如果你有更多存存貨，就有更更多有效產(chǎn)出出，可以賣出出更多商品。Now if you aare inn disttributtion aand yoou havve invventorry, pllenty of innventoory, nnot allways the rright invenntory but yyou doo havee plennty off inveentoryy, whaat is the tthing that if yoou hadd moree, deffiniteely yoou wouuld geet morre thrroughpput, mm

20、ore ssales. 假設(shè)你是配銷商商，持有大量量的存貨，盡盡管不見(jiàn)得都都是正確的存存貨，誰(shuí)能讓讓你的有效產(chǎn)產(chǎn)出更多呢？Everyboody knnows iit- cllientss. 每個(gè)人都知道：客戶。If moree clieents wwould have come and wwantedd to bbuy, ddefiniitely I wouuld haave foound ssomethhing tto selll. 如果更多客戶上上門想要購(gòu)買買，我絕對(duì)可可以找到商品品販賣。Then thhe connstraiint off the systeem is cliennts

21、whho comme to buy.于是系統(tǒng)的限制制就是來(lái)購(gòu)買買的客戶。What iss the seconnd steep? 步驟二是什么？Exploitt the systeems cconstrraint. 充分應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)的的限制。Dont wwaste it, iif thee clieent allreadyy enteered aand waanted to buuy, seell hiim. 不要浪費(fèi)，如果果客戶已經(jīng)進(jìn)進(jìn)門而且想購(gòu)購(gòu)買，就賣東東西給他。But howw?但是要怎么做呢呢？What iss the meaniing off explloit tthe syystems

22、 connstraiint? 充分應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)的的限制是什么么意思？In our case it meeans yyou muust hoold att the rightt placce in the rright time the rright invenntory. 在我們的例子中中，你必須在在正確的地點(diǎn)點(diǎn)、正確的時(shí)時(shí)間、持有正正確的存貨。Becausee if yyou wiill noot holld at the rright placee at tthe tiime whhen thhe cliient ccomes the rright invenntory then the cc

23、lientt willl say sorryy and will go ouut alsso a llittlee bit disapppointted whhich mmeans that maybee secoond tiime maaybe hhe willl nott comee to yyou. 如果你不能在客客戶進(jìn)門時(shí)，持持有正確的存存貨，他會(huì)說(shuō)說(shuō)很抱歉，然然后有點(diǎn)失望望的離開(kāi)，也也就是說(shuō)，他他下一次可能能不會(huì)再來(lái)找找你。Exploitt the systeems cconstrraint meanss havee the rightt inveentoryy in tthe ri

24、ight pplace at thhe rigght tiime. 充分應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)的的限制，意謂謂著在正確的的地點(diǎn)、正確確的時(shí)間、持持有正確的存存貨。Everyboody knnows iit. 大家都知道這一一點(diǎn)。Not likke in otherr placces thhat maaybe wwe diddnt kknow tthe coonstraaint. 不像在其它時(shí)候候，我們可能能不知道限制制為何。In disttributtion eevery one kknows the cconstrraint and eeverybbody kknows how iimporttant i

25、is to explooit thhe connstraiint annd eveeryboddy knoows whhat iss needded too be ddone iin ordder too explloit tthe coonstraaint. 配銷通路中的每每個(gè)成員都知知道限制，以以及充分應(yīng)用用限制的重要要性，都了解解應(yīng)該做什么么才能充分應(yīng)應(yīng)用限制。The prooblem is inn the thirdd stepp in ssuborddinatiion. 問(wèn)題在于第三個(gè)個(gè)步驟：配合合。In otheer worrds, hhow doo we mmake oour e

26、nntire systeem subbordinnate sso thaat we can eexploiit thee consstrainnt? 換句話說(shuō)，我們們?nèi)绾巫屨麄€(gè)個(gè)系統(tǒng)全力配配合，以充分分應(yīng)用限制？What muust wee do iin ordder too havee the rightt inveentoryy in tthe riight pplace at thhe rigght tiime? 我們必須做什么么，才能在正正確的地點(diǎn)、正正確的時(shí)間、持持有正確的存存貨。And thiis is not ssimplee at aall. 這一點(diǎn)也不簡(jiǎn)單單。Now, lee

27、ts loook onn it aand leets unndersttand mmuch mmore oof thee logiic. 現(xiàn)在，讓我們看看一下，再進(jìn)進(jìn)一步了解這這套邏輯。Now of coursse, inn ordeer to do thhat I wrotee somee treees butt whatt I foound oout iss sincce mosst peoople aare noot inttimateely inn the distrributiion itt is qquite hard to unndersttand tthe caause aan

28、d efffect in thhis trree. 當(dāng)然，為了讓大大家了解這套套邏輯，我畫畫了一些邏輯輯樹(shù)，但是我我發(fā)現(xiàn)多數(shù)人人都不是配銷銷通路里的成成員，所以不不容易理解樹(shù)樹(shù)里面的因果果關(guān)系。So insttead II deciided tthat II willl use animaation. 因此，我決定用用卡通的方式式。You donnt miind thhat thhis reepreseents tthe maanagerr in ddistriibutioon.你不介意這代表表配銷里的經(jīng)經(jīng)理吧！He is aa nicee felllow, hhe is even smili

29、ing. 他是個(gè)好人，甚甚至在微笑呢呢！Move yoour eyyes! No! Fine. 眨一下你的眼睛睛！不要！好好。Ah. Niice. 噢！很好。Now letts seee wherre thee disttributtion iis staartingg fromm, wheere iss the wholee conccept. 現(xiàn)在我們看一下下配銷是從哪哪里開(kāi)始，整整個(gè)概念在哪哪里？Look onn whatt is hhappenning.看看發(fā)生了什么么事？What wee see is a mismaatch iin sattisfyiing thhe marrket

30、 ddemandds. 我們看到有個(gè)地地方不能滿足足市場(chǎng)需求。Supposee thatt it ttakes 1 monnth too brinng thee mercchandiise frrom thhe venndor tto thiis loccationn. 假設(shè)要花一個(gè)月月，才能把商商品從供貨商商那邊送到這這個(gè)地點(diǎn)。From suubmittting oof ordder unntil tthey wwill pproducce mayybe, aand deefinittely uuntil they will bringg it aand soomehoww we hhave

31、 tthe immpresssion tthat wwhenevver wee needd someethingg urgeently they are uusing the mmode oof turrtles to brring iit to us. 從下訂單一直到到生產(chǎn)、運(yùn)送送，我們心中中總有個(gè)印象象，只要是我我們急需的東東西，他們就就會(huì)用烏龜?shù)牡乃俣人蛠?lái)。The cheeck iss in tthe maail. AAt thee samee timee the cliennts waant itt now. 支票已經(jīng)寄了，客客戶現(xiàn)在就要要拿到貨。There iis a mmismat

32、tch heere, wwe aree not satissfyingg the cliennt neeeds. 在這里我們無(wú)法法滿足客戶的的需要。And theen whaat happpens is- ssomeboody reealizeed herre we dontt satiisfy tthe maarket real needss. 接下來(lái)是：有人人發(fā)現(xiàn)我們無(wú)無(wú)法滿足市場(chǎng)場(chǎng)真正的需求求。There iis a bbusineess oppportuunity. 這里出現(xiàn)了商機(jī)機(jī)。And he had aa marvvelouss ideaa. A llight bulb came

33、 up. 他靈光一閃，想想到一個(gè)相當(dāng)當(dāng)好的主意。And whaat is the iidea? 是什么主意呢？Let me put tthe orrders to thhe venndor, let mme putt the invenntory here in pllace sso if cliennts, tthe maarket wantss it nnow I can ddeliveer it immeddiatelly noww. 讓我下訂單給供供貨商，把存存貨放在這里里，如果客戶戶和市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)在在需要，我馬馬上就能出貨貨。Now if it taakes aa wholle monnt

34、h too brinng froom subbmittiing ann ordeer unttil itt arriives hhow muuch innventoory shhould I holld? 1 monthh. 假設(shè)從下訂單到到商品到達(dá)要要花一整個(gè)月月，那我必須須持有多少存存貨呢？一個(gè)個(gè)月。So I haave a businness, I am actinng upoon it and wwhat iis noww the situaation? 所以生意上門，我我馬上采取響響應(yīng)，現(xiàn)在的的情況是什么么呢？The sittuatioon is that I havve creea

35、ted a disstribuution businness. 于是我創(chuàng)造了配配銷事業(yè)。I have 1 monnth off inveentoryy, I aam plaacing orderrs bassed onn whatt? 我有一個(gè)月的存存貨，我根據(jù)據(jù)什么下訂單單呢？Forecasst, buut wheen thee clieent coomes II can delivver immmediaately.銷售預(yù)估，不過(guò)過(guò)當(dāng)客人上門門，我就能立立刻出貨。Looks nnice, but hhow muuch innventoory doo I haave too holdd if

36、 iit takkes onne monnth too brinng it. 看起來(lái)很好，但但是如果商品品要一個(gè)月后后才到，那我我必須持有多多少存貨呢？I have to hoold onne monnth. 我必須持有一個(gè)個(gè)月的存貨。Wait, wwhat iis thee meanning oof onee montth. 等一下，一個(gè)月月是什么意思思？One monnth meeans oone moonth oof aveerage consuumptioon.一個(gè)月表示一個(gè)個(gè)月的平均消消費(fèi)量。Well, yyou alll knoow whaat is the mmeaninng o

37、f averaage coonsumpption. Rigght? 嗯，你們都知道道平均消費(fèi)量量的意思，對(duì)對(duì)不對(duì)？Sometimmes itt is bbelow, someetimess it iis morre. 有時(shí)候少一點(diǎn)，有有時(shí)候多一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)。What haappenss whenn it iis morre? WWhat hhappenns wheen it is moore?多一點(diǎn)的時(shí)候會(huì)會(huì)怎么樣呢？What haappenss whenn 2 cllientss arriive moore thhan thhe aveerage? 如果來(lái)的客人比比平均多，會(huì)會(huì)怎么樣呢？You dr

38、aain thhe invventorry andd whatt is hhappenning nnow- wwe wannt it now, do yoou havve enoough tto givve? 你的存貨用光了了，現(xiàn)在會(huì)怎怎么樣呢？我我們現(xiàn)在就要要，你有沒(méi)有有足夠的商品品給客人？Nope, bbut thhe whoole buusinesss wass on ccustommer saatisfaactionn thatt you can ggive nnow. 沒(méi)有，但是整個(gè)個(gè)配銷事業(yè)的的基礎(chǔ)，就是是必須讓顧客客現(xiàn)在就滿意意。Oh, oh, we aare inn trouu

39、ble bbut loook whhat iss happpeningg befoore thhat. 噢！我們有麻煩煩了，但是看看看在這之前前發(fā)生什么事事。If it iis onee montth on the wway allreadyy it mmeans I putt one monthh in pplace this alreaady meeans II am hholdinng 2 mmonthss inveentoryy. 如果一個(gè)月的存存貨在路上，表表示我這里已已經(jīng)放了一個(gè)個(gè)月的存貨，也也就是說(shuō)，我我持有兩個(gè)月月的存貨。Remembeer whaat happpenedd-

40、onee montth leaad timme of delivvery mmeans now tthat II am hholdinng onee montth on the rroad, plus one mmonth in innventoory, sso it doublled. 還記得發(fā)生了什什么事嗎？一一個(gè)月的送貨貨前置時(shí)間，表表示一個(gè)月的的存貨在路上上，再加上這這里一個(gè)月的的存貨，所以以存貨數(shù)量加加倍了。But noww it wwasntt enouugh soo whatt do II do nnow iff I waant too givee perffect ccusto

41、mmer seervicee? 但是還不夠，所所以如果我想想提供顧客完完美的服務(wù)，現(xiàn)現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該要怎怎么做？2 monthh, 3 mmonthss now depennds onn how much is thhe fluuctuattions in deemand. 持有兩個(gè)月、三三個(gè)月的存貨貨？端視需求求的波動(dòng)幅度度而定。Lets suupposee thatt in oour caase thhe fluuctuattions are qquite smalll. 假設(shè)在這個(gè)例子子中，波動(dòng)幅幅度相當(dāng)小。In otheer worrds inn one monthh we ccan seel

42、l maany tiimes ttwice the aaveragge monnth. Ok? 換句話說(shuō)，我們們?cè)谀硞€(gè)月的的銷售量是平平均的兩倍，好好嗎？I am sttill ssmilinng, beecausee maybbe I mmade sso mucch monney byy provvidingg thiss servvice tthat II can invesst in more invenntory. 我仍然在微笑，因因?yàn)樘峁┻@項(xiàng)項(xiàng)服務(wù)讓我賺賺大錢，所以以可以投資在在更多存貨上上面。Fine, II willl act upon my huunch. 很好，我會(huì)依照照直覺(jué)

43、行事。Which mmeans now tthe siituatiion wiill bee thatt how much invenntory do I have to hoold? 也就是說(shuō)，現(xiàn)在在的情況是我我必須持有多多少存貨呢？2 monthhs, soo how much now iis thee inveentoryy is iin thee totaal suppply cchain- 3 tiimes tthe leead tiime. 兩個(gè)月，所以現(xiàn)現(xiàn)在整條供應(yīng)應(yīng)鏈上的存貨貨總共多少？前置時(shí)間的的三倍。Do you underrstandd now why ppeoplee

44、are telliing yoou to shrinnk thee leadd timee? 你現(xiàn)在知道為什什么人們都叫叫你縮短前置置時(shí)間了嗎？Becausee the invenntory that the ssupplyy chaiin hass to hhold iis noww 3 tiimes mmore.因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在供應(yīng)鏈鏈里持有的存存貨變成了三三倍。And by that welll do eeverytthing perfeect? 這樣一來(lái)，每件件事情都會(huì)很很完美嗎？Oh, no, supppose tthat 22 montths waas enoough tto commpe

45、nsaate foor thee markket flluctuaationss. 不會(huì)，假設(shè)兩個(gè)個(gè)月就足以抵抵銷市場(chǎng)的波波動(dòng)。What abbout ssometiimes tthe suupply goingg intoo probblems? 如果有時(shí)候供給給出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題了了呢？I am noot tallking aboutt striike, II am ttalkinng aboout- wwe askked foor it from the vvendorr, andd thiss timee the vendoor hadd anotther mmore iimporttant o

46、order. 我不是指罷工，而而是指我們向向供貨商訂貨貨，這時(shí)候供供貨商要處理理另一筆更重重要的訂單。Or, thee shipp was stuckk in ccustomms or whateever. 或是船被困在海海關(guān)等情況。Have yoou heaard abbout ssuch ggreat thinggs? 你聽(tīng)過(guò)這類偉大大的事情嗎？Somethiing weent wrrong. 某件事出了差錯(cuò)錯(cuò)。By the way iif youu are talkiing abbout aaveragge suppplierr, I aam nott talkking aabout t

47、hesee phennomenaally rreliabble suupplieers, bbut avveragee suppplier. 順帶一提，我說(shuō)說(shuō)的是一般的的供貨商，不不是那些十分分可靠的供貨貨商。And thee averrage rreplennishmeent tiime frrom thhis suupplieer is one mmonth, it mmeans that we haave 5% channce too waitt moree thann 2 moonths. Ok? 這個(gè)供貨商的平平均補(bǔ)貨時(shí)間間是一個(gè)月，這這意謂著我們們有5%的機(jī)率必必須等兩個(gè)月月以上，

48、對(duì)嗎嗎？These aare avveragee suppplierss. Okk? 這些是一般的供供貨商，好嗎嗎？Unless you aare taalkingg abouut theese phhenomeenal ssuppliiers tthat rreallyy suppply 999% on the ttime.除非你說(shuō)的是這這些99%都會(huì)準(zhǔn)準(zhǔn)時(shí)補(bǔ)貨的可可靠供貨商。Now whaat happpens? 現(xiàn)在發(fā)生什么事事？Our turrtle ggot sttuck oon thee way, we ccan giive exxcusess to oour cllientss.

49、 我們的烏龜卡在在半路上，我我們可以把這這個(gè)借口告訴訴客戶。What iss theiir tollerancce timme? 他們的寬限時(shí)間間是多久？Zero, wwhich meanss, go and ggive tthe exxcusess to tthin aair. 零，也就是說(shuō)，你你去跟空氣說(shuō)說(shuō)這個(gè)借口。Your cuustomeer serrvice is noot goood enoough. 你提供的顧客服服務(wù)不夠好。Now youu starrt to thinkk agaiin.現(xiàn)在你再度開(kāi)始始思考。And wheen youu thinnk agaain whhat

50、 iss now cominng on your mind, whatt is tthe onnly waay outt? 你再度思考時(shí)，會(huì)會(huì)想到什么？唯一的解決決方法是什么么？What iss the only way oout? More invenntory. 4 mmonthss? 唯一的解決方法法是持有更多多存貨，四個(gè)個(gè)月嗎？That iss a prroblemm. 這就是問(wèn)題所在在。Now I hhave aa choiice- eeitherr I amm incrreasinng thee inveentoryy evenn moree or II givee up oon

51、givving ggood ccustommer seervicee, onee of tthe twwo. 現(xiàn)在我要做個(gè)選選擇：不是增增加更多存貨貨，就是放棄棄提供好的顧顧客服務(wù)，二二者選一。Supposee, thaat I aam deccidingg- OK, 4 moonths. 假設(shè)我決定：好好，四個(gè)月。I am dooublinng thee inveentoryy agaiin. 結(jié)果我又把存貨貨數(shù)量加倍。Now I wwill pprobabbly bee hopeefullyy 99% on tiime.現(xiàn)在我應(yīng)該能999%的準(zhǔn)時(shí)時(shí)。But theen loook whaa

52、t happpenedd to tthe innventoory, hhow maany innventoory tuurns ddo we have?但是看一下存貨貨，我們的存存貨周轉(zhuǎn)率是是多少？If we wwill llook oon onee prodduct nnow annd well thhink aabout what the pproducct is thinkking mmaybe welll get the ffollowwing sstatemment ffrom tthe prroductt. 如果我們站在一一項(xiàng)產(chǎn)品的角角度思考，也也許可以得到到以下的結(jié)果果。It t

53、ookk 2 moonths to reeach, and tthen II was stayiing onn the shelff anotther 44 montths unntil iit wass my tturn tto be delivvered, to eearn aa custtomer. 我花兩個(gè)月到這這里，現(xiàn)在還還要在貨架上上待四個(gè)月，才才能得到一個(gè)個(gè)客戶的芳心心。How lovvely! 太美妙了！It was such an emmergenncy, wwe neeed it now! 情況實(shí)在很緊急急，我們現(xiàn)在在就要！And theen howw muchh time

54、e passsed unntil II founnd a ccustommer, II founnd thee owneer- 6 monthhs. 然后我花了多久久的時(shí)間才找找到主人：六六個(gè)月。If you are llookinng on many, manyy induustriees, annd youu are not llookinng on one llink, but tthe enntire supplly chaain, hhow maany innventoory tuurns ddo we talk aboutt? 如果你看的是許許多產(chǎn)業(yè)，不不只是一個(gè)環(huán)環(huán)節(jié)，而是整整條

55、供應(yīng)鏈，我我們說(shuō)的存貨貨周轉(zhuǎn)率是多多少？Sometimmes, lless tthan oone, tto thaat exttent. 有時(shí)候甚至不到到1。Are youu amazzed? Now, it iss not alwayys thee casee.你很驚訝嗎？現(xiàn)現(xiàn)在，情況并并非總是如此此。For exaample, if yyou arre loooking in thhe texxtile indusstry, in thhe fasshion goodss, theen it is muuch beetter, it iis 2. 舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，紡織織業(yè)的流行商商品，情況就就比

56、較好，存存貨周轉(zhuǎn)率是是2。Do you know by thhe wayy thatt in tthe teextilee induustry and tthe faashionn goodds we are ppeoplee, shoops orr chaiins arre buyying iin thee summmer foor thee wintter annd in the wwinterr for the ssummerr. 你知道嗎？對(duì)紡紡織業(yè)和流行行商品來(lái)說(shuō)，消消費(fèi)者、商店店、或供應(yīng)鏈鏈的購(gòu)買行為為是在夏天買買冬天的商品品，在冬天買買夏天的商品品。You knoow it ve

57、ry well as a consuumer. 身為消費(fèi)者，你你應(yīng)該非常清清楚這一點(diǎn)。And noww one time I reaalizedd it bbecausse I wwas sttuck iin Minnneapoolis iin Febbruaryy and I hadd to ggo to buy mmyselff someethingg warmm, andd Minnneapollis inn Febrruary do yoou knoow whaat is the mmeaninng of it? 我之所以會(huì)知道道這個(gè)現(xiàn)象，是是因?yàn)槲叶略聲r(shí)被困在明明尼亞波利斯斯，必須

58、買件件保暖的衣服服，你曉得二二月的明尼亞亞波利斯像什什么嗎？Super ffreezeer.超級(jí)冰庫(kù)。And I wwent iin to the sshops, in FFebruaary, ddo youu knoww whatt I foound iin thee shopps- suummer clothhes. 我在二月走進(jìn)商商店，你知道道我在里面找找到什么嗎？夏季服飾。How lovvely. 太美妙了。It is llike yyou knnow reealityy and this, totaally oout off syncc. 你終于知道現(xiàn)實(shí)實(shí)世界跟這里里完全不搭調(diào)調(diào)。L

59、ook onn whatt we hhave nnow. 看一下這里。How mucch levvel off inveentoryy do wwe neeed? 我們需要多少存存貨？Now, I will read it sllowly and tthen II willl expllain.現(xiàn)在，我會(huì)慢慢慢念，然后解解釋。I hope that now aafter the ccartooons thhese vvery iimpresssive wordss willl be uundersstood. 我希望看完卡通通后，你能了了解這些令人人印象非常深深刻的話語(yǔ)。We needd to

60、 hhold, if wee wantt 100% custtomer serviice orr closse to it- 999%, 998%, wwe neeed to hold invenntory whichh is tthe maaximumm foreecasteed connsumpttion wwithinn the averaage reepleniishmennt timme. 如果想要提供1100%的顧顧客服務(wù)，或或至少是999%、98%，我們們持有的存貨貨數(shù)量，必須須是平均補(bǔ)貨貨期間內(nèi)預(yù)估估消費(fèi)量的最最大值。If the averaage reepleniishmen