2021全球金融科技行業(yè)報告：區(qū)塊鏈、比特幣和數(shù)字金融

TableofContentsTOC\o"1-5"\h\z\o"CurrentDocument"Executivesummary 5\o"CurrentDocument"Bitcoinisaneconomicsideshow-theriseofdigitalfinanceistherealpost-COVID-19story 6TherallyinBitcoin:AsidestoryofCOVID-19AreviewofthepastyearforBitcoin:Competitionwithgoldas“alternative“currencyisWhatcryptocurrencieshaveandhaven/tdoneformulti-assetportfolios:Mainstreamingisreducingdiversificationbenefitsandleadingtofailureduringacrisis 22Onlyasstrongasthefoundation:RisksinherentinthemicrostructureofBitcoinmarkets 30Theriseofdigitalcurrencies:Notyettransformational\o"CurrentDocument"Yousayyouwantarevolution:Whoispermissionedtoutilizedigitalcurrencies? 35China'sCBDC:ConstrainedbycapitalcontrolsandslowprogressinRMBinternationalization 46TheJapanesecase:TwomovestowardestablishmentofDigitalCurrencyandtheimpactonpaymentflow 49Theriseofdigitalfinance:TherealtransformationalstoryofCOVID-19\o"CurrentDocument"Payments&Processors:Modernprovidersgainedgroundoverlegacywithconsolidationtocome 53\o"CurrentDocument"USregionalbankspositionedasendgamewinnersinthedigitalage 55\o"CurrentDocument"ChinaBanks:GoingMobile-EvaluatingBanks'DigitalPush 60\o"CurrentDocument"FinTechinASEAN:Goingmainstream 63\o"CurrentDocument"UAEDigitalBanks:Non-banksaregrowingfastcomparedtotherestofMENA 68\o"CurrentDocument"CEEMEABanks:COVID-19catalyzingdigitalbankingacceleration 72\o"CurrentDocument"Appendix 75ExecutivesummaryCOVID-19acceleratestheriseofdigitalfinanceTheriseofdigitalfinanceanddemandforfintechistherealfinancialtransformationalstoryoftheCOVID-19era,nottherallyinBitcoinprices......buttherecentannouncementsofgreateracceptanceandadoptionbyTesla,BNYMellonandMastercardconfirmtheincreasedinvestordemandandinterestintransactingpaymentsincryptocurrencies.Competitionbetweenbanksandfintechisintensifying,withBigTechpossessingthemostpotentdigitalplatformsduetotheiraccesstocustomerdata.'Co-opetition'between'Fin'andTech'playersliesahead,withbankssteppingupinvestmenttonarrowthetechnologygap,andthebattlebetweenUSbanksandnon-bankfintechisalsoplayingoutontheregulatoryfront.Asiacontinuestodrivethird-party(noncash)globalgrowthinpayments.Traditionalbankscouldemergeasendgamewinnersinthedigitalageofbankingduetotheiradvantagefromdepositfranchise,riskmanagementandregulation.TheriseofBitcoinisaneconomicsideshowbutBitcoinisheretostayasan“alternative"currencyBitcoinpriceswereboostedbyTesla's$1.5bninvestmentwithmomentumtradersamplifyingtheupmove,butcurrentpricesarewellaboveourmostrecentestimatesoffairvaluebasedonminingcostsandriskcapitalequivalencewithgold.Inthelongterm,weestimatethattheoreticallyBitcoinpriceswouldneedtoriseto$146kforthemarketcaptomatchthetotalprivatesectorinvestmentingoldviaETFsorbarsandcoins.CryptoassetscontinuetorankasthepooresthedgeformajordrawdownsinEquities,withquestionablediversificationbenefitsatpricessofaraboveproductioncosts,whilecorrelationswithcyclicalassetsarerisingascryptoownershipismainstreamed.WatchthetailrisktoBitcoinmarketsasasuddenlossofconfidenceinUSDTwouldlikelygenerateasevereliquidityshock,jeopardizingaccesstothelargestpoolsofdemandandliquidity.FinancialinnovationhasoutpacedregulationwithglobalfinancialstabilityconcernsrisingasGlobalStablecoins(GSCs)aredevelopedRegulationhasbeenoutpacedbyinnovation,creatinganunevenplayingfield,asitiseasierandcheaperforfintechtooffersimilarproductsandservices.Areturnofantitrustisarisk,mostlytoBigTech,andfutureregulationwillfocusonwhoispermissionedtouseGlobalStablecoinarrangementsandgainaccesstotheFederalReserve'spaymentssystemaswellastheappropriatelevelofoversight,supervisionandregulation.Centralbanksrepresenting20%oftheworld'spopulationarelikelytoissueCentralBankDigitalCurrencies(CBDCs)inthenextthreeyears,buttransformativeimpactisuncleargivenrestrictionsbasedonjurisdiction.J.P.MorganPerspectivesbringstogetherthematicandstrategicviewsacrossJ.P.Morgan'sGlobalResearchfranchise,examiningbigideasandcriticalglobalissuestransforminginvestmentmarkets.ThisisourannualupdateonthelatestdevelopmentscoveringtheadoptionandevolutionofBlockchaintechnology,Cryptocurrencies,CentralBankDigitalCurrencies,GlobalStablecoinsanddigitalfinance.Wealsohighlightregulatoryissuesthatlieaheadasinnovationhasoutpacedregulation,creatinganunevenplayingfield.Wehopethisserieswillbothinformandfosterdebateonevolvingeconomic,investmentandsocialtrends.-JoyceChang,ChairofGlobalResearchBitcoinisaneconomicsideshow-theriseofdigitalfinanceistherealpost-COVID-19storyFintechhasgonemainstream,andwehighlighttheriseofdigitalfinanceintheCOVID-19erainourannualreviewofblockchaintechnology,Bitcoinandotherdigitalcurrencies.BitcoinpriceshavecontinuedtheirmeteoricrisewithTesla,BNYMellonandMastercard'sannouncementsofgreateracceptanceofcryptocurrencies......butfintechinnovationandincreaseddemandfordigitalservicesaretherealCOVID-19storywiththeriseofonlinestart-upsandexpansionofdigitalplatformsintocreditandpayments.Expect'co-opetition'between'Fin'and'Tech'playerswithbanksfocusedonnarrowingthetechnologygap,whileBigTechbenefitsfromalargecustomerbaseandaccesstotheirdata.InvestorandregulatoryshiftswillplayoutasBigTechlookstoissueGlobalStablecoins(GSCs)andregulationhasbeenoutpacedbyinnovation,creatinganunevenplayingfield.Traditionalbankscouldemergeasendgamewinnersinthedigitalageofbankingduetotheiradvantagefromdepositfranchise,riskmanagementandregulation.Bitcoinpricesboostedbymomentumtraders,butcurrentpricesarewellaboveourmostrecentestimatesoffairvaluebasedonminingcostsandriskcapitalequivalencewithgold.Inthelongterm,weestimatethattheoreticallyBitcoinpriceswouldneedtoriseto$146kforthemarketcaptomatchthetotalprivatesectorinvestmentingoldviaETFsorbarsandcoins.CryptoassetsrankasthepooresthedgeformajordrawdownsinEquities,anddiversificationbenefitsareunclearatpricessofaraboveproductioncosts,whileincreasedownershipisraisingcorrelationswithcyclicalassets.WatchthetailrisktoBitcoinmarketsasasuddenlossofconfidenceinUSDTwouldlikelygenerateasevereliquidityshock,jeopardizingaccesstothelargestpoolsofdemandandliquidity.SomecentralbanksarelikelytoissueCentralBankDigitalCurrencies(CBDC)inthenext3yearsbuttransformativeimpactisstillquestionablegivenrestrictionsbasedonjurisdiction.COVID-19acceleratestheriseofdigitalfinanceandretailinvestmentCOVID-19hasaccelerateddigitalizationandtechnologicalchangeinthefinanceindustry,withrisingconcernsthatdisruptivetechnologiescouldemergeasathreattoglobalfinancialstability,whencombinedwithexcessliquidityandanundefinedregulatoryframework.Inourannualround-upofthelatestdevelopmentsinblockchaintechnology,Bitcoin,andotherdigitalcurrencies,weexpandouranalysistoincludeabroaderdiscussionoftheriseofdigitalbanking(seeBlockchain,digilalcurrencyandcrymocurreれcy:Movingintolhemainstream?,J.Changetal.,21February2020).Inthispublication,35strategists,analysts,andeconomistsexaminethelatesttrendsinblockchaintechnology,theBitcoinmarket,digitalcurrenciesandtheriseofdigitalbanking.CashusewasalreadyonthedeclinebeforeCOVID-19,andthepandemichasfueleddemandforfastandconvenientdigitalpayments.Thepandemichasboosteddemandfordigitalservicesandalsofor“alternative“currenciesasmultipleroundsofstimulus,accommodativemonetarypolicy,andexcesssavingshaveboostedmoneysupply,leadingtorecordinflowsintoBitcoininvestmentvehicles.The27%riseinBitcoinpricesintheweekofTesla'sFebruary8thannouncementfollowsa300%+meteoricriseinBitcoinpricesduring2020.Inaddition,thehigher-than-usualretailstockmarketparticipationthatfueledtherecentsmall-capshortsqueezehaveraisedconcernsthatassetbubblesareforming.WehavelongarguedthatwhilethereisatemptationtopointtotheCOVID-19crisisasnewandunprecedented,weseeCOVID-19asanaccelerant,amplifyingparadigmshiftsthatwerealreadyinmotionafterthe2008GlobalFinancialCrisis(seePandemicAccelercue*ParadigmShifis、J.Changetal.,8July2020).Theshiftinmarketstructureandthedeclineinliquidityexacerbatedthesell-offinMarch/April2020,resultingintheseverityandspeedoffinancialmarketmovesthatwerewithoutprecedent.TheUSequitymarketmovedfromarecordpeaktoatroughover14dayscomparedto14monthsduringtheGFC.Multipleroundsoffiscalstimulushaveamountedtoroughly4.2%ofglobalGDP,whileG-4CentralBankbalancesheetexpansionat$8trnismorethantriplethelevelseenduringtheGFC,fuelingthemostrapidequitymarketrecoveryever,withtheS&P500returningtorecordlevelsinjust6months.TherallyinBitcoinandincreaseinretailparticipationinUSequitiesaremanifestationsofrecordlowrates.TheJPMorganChaseInstitutefindsthattheCOVID-19shocktotheeconomy,whichstronglydampenedconsumerspending,resultedinalargespikeintransferstoinvestmentaccounts,especiallyformen,consistentwiththeaggregateincreaseinthepersonalsavingsratestartinginMarch2020?Retailinvestorsrampedupstockmarketparticipat沁nbeginninginMarch,whentheUSrecordeditshighesteversavingsrateof34%.InBloomberg'slatestsurveyofwhatAmericansplantodowithnextreliefpayment,6%indicatedthattheyintendtoinvestmoreinthestockmarket,comparedto5%indicatingthatreliefwouldgotosupportchildcare,while3%indicatedthattheywouldinvestincryptocurrency.'See“FindingFour”here:httDs:〃/r//institule/research/financial-markels/lhe-slock-niarkei-and-household-financial-behaviorhttps:〃/r//news/articles/2021-0211/s〔imulus-checks-americans-Dlan-to-save-not-sDend-covid-relief-moneyThesavingsratehasbeendeclininggradually,butthelatestreadingiselevatedat13%,andourUSequitystrategistsestimatea?$390bndeclineinconsumerspendingsincetheJanuary2020peak(seeUSEciiUtySlralegヽ、'See“FindingFour”here:httDs:〃/r//institule/research/financial-markels/lhe-slock-niarkei-and-household-financial-behaviorhttps:〃/r//news/articles/2021-0211/s〔imulus-checks-americans-Dlan-to-save-not-sDend-covid-relief-moneySomemarketsegmentsaremostlikelyinabubbleduetoexcessivespeculation,andBitcoinpricesralliedby27%intheweekofTesla'sFebruary8thannouncementthatithadspent$1.5bnofit*?cashreserveonBitcoin.AlthoughweareskepticalthatTeslaisatypicalcorporateandthatitsexamplewillbefollowedbymoremainstreamcorporates,werecognizethatTesla'sannouncementbroadenscorporatesponsorship,afteragapoffivemonthswithnocorporatetreasuryannouncementsbeyondMicroStrategyandSquarelastAugust.TeslaisnotaloneinexploringgreateracceptanceofBitcoin.InthesameweekofTesla'sannouncement,avarietyofpaymentprovidersandcustodiansannouncedtheirexpansionintoacceptingcryptopayments.Mastercardannouncedaplanallowmerchantstoreceivepaymentsincryptocurrencylaterthisyear.BNYMellon,theworld'slargestcustodicinbankwith~$41trnofinassets,announcedtheformationofanewunittobuildamulti-assetcustodyandadministrationplatformfortraditionalanddigitalassets.PayPalannouncedthatitisconsideringaddingcryptocurrencyasapaymentoptionthroughVenmo.Canada'sfinancialregulatoralsoapprovedthefirstpubliclytradedBitcoinexchange-tradedfund(ETF)inNorthAmerica.ThereceiptofapprovalfromtheOntarioSecuritiesCommission(OSC)wasfiledunderaMultilateralInstrumentpassportsysteminmultipleCanadianjurisdictions.h〔h〔tps:〃/r//sites/haileylennon/2021/02"2/bitcoin-Despitethecurrentspotlightonthegrowingacceptanceofcryptocurrencies,wefindtherealfinancialtransformationstoryoftheCOVID-19eraistheincreaseindemandfordigitalservicesastheshiftawayfromin-personinteractionsisalastinglegacyfromthepandemic.Theongoingprogressindigitaltechnologyhasmadenewformsofdigitalmoneycheaperandfasterthantraditionalelectronicinstruments,especiallyforcross-borderpayments.5Thepastyearwasmarkedbytheriseofonlinestart-upswithoutabankingbackgroundandtheexpansionofsocialmediaanddigitalplatformsintocreditandpayments.Anumberofbreakthroughsplayedoutduringthecourseof2020,includingscalingupdigitalsolutionsinthird-partypayments,advancesbydigitalfinanceintoretaillendingandinsurance,andtheemergenceofpartnershipsbetweenBigTechandbanks.AlthoughthemarkethasfixatedontherallyinBitcoin,therealeconomicandexcitingactionisinthenewbattlefordigitalsupremacybetweenthebanksandfintech,whichislikelytoleadtorenewedcompetitionandinnovationwithmajorITcapexforthcomingonbothsides.Theplayingfieldisunevenasfinancialregulationshavenotkeptpacewithfintechinnovation,anditiseasierandcheaperforfintechtooffersimilarproductsandservices.BigTechfirmshaveaninformationaladvantageoverbankstoprivilegedcustomerdata.Atthesametime,theirplatforms'activitycanbeviewedas“match-making,"whichdoesnotrequirerisk-taking,sincetheydonotneedtoprovidefinancialservicesthemselves,asdiscussedinarecentwelcomes-tesla-mastercard-bny-mellon-venmo-to~the-cryDtocurrency-party/https:〃/r//first-north-american-bitcoin-eU-ar)Drovcd-by-canadian-sccurilics-rcgulato「https:〃/r//en/Publicalions/Policy-Papers/Issues/202(レ1(レ17/Digital-Money-Across-B()rders-Macro-Financial-Implications-49823,p.9reportpublishedbytheIMF.BigTechcompaniescouldalsobundletheirsocialmediaserviceswithpaymentservicesthroughtheissuanceofstablecoins.6https:〃/r//en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/08/07/FiJ.P.Morganestimatesthatthereareabout58fintechcompanieswithamarketcapgreaterthan$lbn,andfintechcompanieshavenotyetexperiencedasystemicliquiditytest.AstheCenterforFinancialStabilitypointsout,themigrationoffinancialactivitiestonon-bankfinancialinstitutionswasinmanywayscreatedbyregulatorsthemselvesasfull-servicebrokeragefirmswererenderedlesscompetitivewithnon-traditional,tech-basedsecuritiesfirmslikeRobinhood,withinvestorsincentivizedtomovetheiraccountstofirmsofferinglowercosttrading,coincidingwithmoreinformationderivedfromsocialmediaratherthantraditionalregulatedentities.nancial-Intermediation-and-Technologv-Whats-Old-Whals-New-49624Asiacontinuestodrivedigitalsolutionsinscalingupthird-partypayments,andourAsiaequityanalystsestimateover$1.5tmtotaladdressablemarketfbrtheASEAN6countries(Indonesia,Thailand,Singapore,Malaysia,Philippines,andVietnam),withtremendousscopefbrgrowthaspenetrationremainslow(2%)(6https:〃/r//en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/08/07/Financial-Intermediation-and-Technologv-Whats-Old-Whals-New-49624Likemanyotherthemes,COVID-19intensifiedandacceleratedtheunderlyingretailinvestmenttrend,asevidencedbyrecordretailbrokeragevolume(retailat~30%ofUSstock/ETFequityvolumeinJune/July2020),non-institutionalownership,anduseofleverageviamarginandderivatives(highestrecordedsingle-contractoptionvolume)(seeUSEquityStrategyGrowingReiailPa門iciMio兒Sho門Squeeze、Rotalion加ノ0レaル",D.Lakos-Bujasetal.,29January2021).Activeretailparticipationgrowthisaseculartrendthatwillintroduceopportunitiesandrisksandisnotclosetoexhausted.Beyondexcessliquidityfromfiscalandmonetarystimulus,thelowconsumerdebtserviceratioandrisinghomeequity,alongwiththescarcityofsubstitutestospendcash,willtranslateintotheriskiestandmostshortedareasoftheequitymarketseeingrenewedinterestbyretail,supportedbyliquidityandsocialmedia'sinfluence.Retailinvestorshavehistoricallybeenattractedtoconsumerproducts/servicecompanieswithbroadbrandawareness,new-techIPOs,andhighsocialmediachatter/risingvolumes.Therecentepisodeof“gamcfication“demonstratedhowquicklythisretailimpulsecanpropagateviasocialmediaplatforms,whichinturnshowstheimportanceofusingsocialmediaplatformsingaugingretail.Althoughlegalandregulatoryframeworksarestillbeingdeveloped,centralbanksarealsobeginningtoconsiderdigitalcurrenciesasawaytomodernizepaymentsinthedigitalage.Thereisno“onesizefitsaH"CBDC,buttheuniversaldriverfbrexploringageneralpurposeCBDCisitsuseasameansofpayment,withsomegovernmentsnowexploringCBDCsasafastanddirectmechanismtoprovidefiscalassistanceintheeventofashocksuchasapandemic.InareportpublishedbytheBankfbrInternationalSettlements(BIS),sevenmajorcentralbanksassessthefeasibilityofpubliclyavailableCBDCsinhelpingcentralbanksachievetheirpublicpolicyobjectives.,http:〃/r//research/GMERob,http:〃/r//research/GMERobinhood020421.pdfWhethercryptocurrenciesarejudgedeventuallyasafinancialinnovationoraspeculativebubble,Bitcoinhasalreadyachievedthefastest-everpriceappreciationofanymust-haveassettowhichitisoftencompared,suchasGold(1970s),JapaneseEquities(1980s),Techstocks(1990s),ChineseEquities(2000s),Commodities(2000s)andFANGstocks(2010s)(Normand).Weestimateabout$1IbnofcumulativeinstitutionalflowsintoBitcoinsincetheendofSeptember(see尸，。ws&Liquidity:Therelailimpulseremainsstrong、N.Panigirtzoglouetal.,16February2021),butwebelievethatasignificantcomponentofinstitutionalflowsintoBitcoinreflectsspeculativeinvestorsseekingtofrontrunothermorereal-moneyinstitutionalinvestors.WebelieveBitcoin,atcurrentmarketprices,hasalreadysurpassedgoldinriskcapitalterms(Panigirtzoglouetal.).Tesla'srecenthups:〃/r//Dubl/olhD33.htmhups:〃/r//wD-conlent/uDloads/Pl31020-3.pdf

announcementthatithasinvested$1.5bninBitcoinor8%ofitscorporatecashreservessurprisedmarketsbythemagnitudeofthepurchasesandre-invigoratedexpectationsthatothercorporateswillfollowwiththeircashreserves.IrrespectiveofhowmanycorporateseventuallyfollowTesla'sexample,theirannouncementabruptlychangedthenear-termtrajectoryforBitcoinbybolsteringinflows,althoughthelonger-termimplicationsforBitcoinpricesremainunclear.OurstrategistsnotethattheirpositionproxybasedonCMEBitcoinfutures,thepreferredvehicleofmomentumtradersandotherspeculativeinvestors,sawasharpalmost$lbnincreaseafterTesla'sannouncement,buttheirsecondproxyfortheinstitutionalflowintoBitcoin,i.e.theflowintotheGrayscaleBitcoinTrust(GBTC),hasnotexhibitedasimilarlystrongimpulse.AccordingtoPanigirtzoglouetal.,onecanarguethat,intermsofriskcapital,Bitcoinhasmorethanequalizedwithgoldalready.Thus,theybelievethatBitcoin'scurrentpriceof~$51klooksunsustainable,unlessBitcoinvolatilitysubsidesquicklyfromhere.Wealsohighlightthatwhileon-screenliquidityinBitcoinmarketshascontinuedtoimproveandoutpacemoretraditionalassetclassesonarelativebasis,morethan90%ofvisibledepthhasbeenprovidedbyHFT-styleactivityoverthepastfewmonths,whichoftenendsupdisappearingwhenvolatilitypicksup(Youngeretal.).TheIMFhaslaidoutatreefeaturingthedifferentformsofdigitalmoneyanddifferentmeansofpayment,mappingthetype,value,backstopandtechnologyfordigitalcurrencies.Wefindthismappingusefulforunderstandingtheframeworkfordigitalmoneybeforeanalyzingthepracticalhurdlesandpotentialmarketimplications(Figure1).ExamplesTypesof

MoneyFigure1.MoneyTrees:MappingtheNewPaymentTechnologiesTypeValueBackstopTechnologyPaxosUSD-CoinTrueUSDDebitcardChequeWireAliPayWeChatPayM-PesaGold-coinsLibra?NoneprominentDecentralizedI(De)centralizedIDecentralizedB-moneyE-moneyl-moneyCashCBDCPubliccoins(Bitcoin)Managedcoins\I(Basis)CentralBankmoneyCryptocurrencyNote:CBDC=centralbankdigitalcurrency.Sincethischartwasoriginallypublished.LibrahasbeenrenamedasDiem.Source:httDSソ/www.imf.oro/en/Publicationafintech-notes/lssuesた019/07ハ2/The~Rise~of-DiQital~Monev~47097Theriseofdigitalbanking:TherealfinancialtransformationalstoryofCOVID-19Digitalbankinglicensesareallowingcompetitionfromplayerswithoutahankingbackground,whichisapowerfuldriverofinnovation.ThemovetoeverythingonlinetriggeredbyCOVID-19hasledtoanavalancheoffintechstart-ups.Manyfintechs,suchasChimeandRobinhood,areseeingvaluationlevelssoar,andthecommondenominatoristhatthesenewentrantsareseeingasurgeincustomeracquisition.Fintechshaveofferedacuttingedgeexperienceforcustomers,andakeypointofdifferentiationisthatmanyfintechsdon'tchargecustomersfeesforproductsandservicesthatthelegacybankindustryhasbecomerelianton.Forexample,pure-playfintechbankssuchasChimeandVarodonotchargeindustrystandardnuisancefeessuchasforoverdrafts(Alexopoulosetal.).Bankshavebeensleepy,butwedonotsubscribetothemostextremeargumentsthattechnologicalprogressmayleadtotheverticalandhorizontaldisintegrationofthetraditionalbankbusinessmodel.Theoverallstructureofthefinancialindustrywithbanksatitscorehasremainedremarkablyrobustthroughmanywavesoftechnologicalinnovation,includingtheriseofpassiveinvesting,securitizationrevolution,andinnovationsincommunications,aswellasthroughtheGlobalFinancialCrisis.AstheIMFnotesinarecentreport,standaloneprovidersofspecializedservicesrarelypossessdeepbalancesheets,whilelargedigitalplatformshavedeeppocketsbuttheirreachinfinancialservicesisconstrainedbytheirfocusonservingretailconsumers.:〃/r//en/Publicalions/WP/Issues/2020/08/07/FinanciaUntermediation-and-TechnologY-Whats-Old-Whals-New-49624Wewouldnotunderestimatebanksfbnningtechpartnershipstocombatshareloss,evenifrelegatedtoawholesalemodel,whichcouldbeaboontothewinningbanktechpartnersofchoice(Huangetal.).Bankshavesteppedupinvestmenttonarrowthetechnologygaporcreatestrategicpartnerships,suchasthealliancesbetweenAppleandGoldmanSachsaswellasGoogleandCitigroup.J.P.MorganlaunchedOnyxDigitalAssets,aplatformfordigitalassettransactionusecases.Attheendof2020,J.P.Morganexecuteditsfirstintradayrepurchasetransactionsor'repos'onOnyxDigitalAssets,whichallowedfbrthesimultaneousexchangeofcashfbrsecuritiesonblockchainwithoutphysicalmovementofsecurities.As:〃/r//en/Publicalions/WP/Issues/2020/08/07/FinanciaUntermediation-and-TechnologY-Whats-Old-Whals-New-49624J.P.MorganclientstotransferUSDollarsheldondepositwithJ.P.Morgan.J.P.Morganbankequityanalystsbelievethatregionalbanksareinastrongpositiontoemergeasthewinnersinthedigitalageastheyhavethesupportoftheregulators,stillhavetherealclientfranchise,andaresuperiorinriskmanagement.IntheUS,Alexopouloselal.highlighttheadvantagethatregionalbanksbringtocustomersinthedigitalageasamodelofhightechmeetshightouch,whereempoweredemployeesserveasacompetitiveadvantage.Lookingahead,manybankswilllikelyuseM&Aoffintechtodefendtheirmarketshare.Weexpectbankstoleveragetheirbalancesheetsandoffermorecompetitivelendingproductsasawaytocompeteversusfintechsthatmightfeartakingontoomuchcreditrevenuetothedetrimentofvaluation(Huangctal.).Figure2:USBigTechmarketcapincreasedby$4