電氣10k2設(shè)計(jì)-外文翻譯

電力系統(tǒng)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展過渡的評， 認(rèn)為在制度變遷展開的幾個關(guān)鍵領(lǐng)域范圍內(nèi)包括環(huán)境科學(xué)動力學(xué)，。機(jī)構(gòu)的互動研究了在過去的一個世紀(jì)內(nèi)的四種不同的制度，以及這些制度檢查力度提出了并展示了行動者網(wǎng)絡(luò)如何從可持續(xù)能源運(yùn)動開始的前一代就比以往任何時候更能夠支持可再生能源和能源效率的發(fā)展和壯大并可持續(xù)發(fā)展。。：社會技術(shù)系統(tǒng)；可持續(xù)性轉(zhuǎn)變；技術(shù)改造；電力系統(tǒng)；能源政策12008年7月，總統(tǒng)做了一個重要的決定：在未來十年內(nèi)―直致和負(fù)擔(dān)得起的，人類文明的未來岌岌可危。31年前，說，與20世紀(jì)70年代的能源有同樣的框架的能源系統(tǒng)改造被視為的國家將在有生，那么可持續(xù)性轉(zhuǎn)變在電力系統(tǒng)的前景是什么？它被理解為明顯轉(zhuǎn)向系統(tǒng)的再生能源高效轉(zhuǎn)變。即使在目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)的程度變得的愈發(fā)明顯的情況下，潔能源的發(fā)展是該國現(xiàn)階段經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇計(jì)劃的部分映了重建國家能源基礎(chǔ)設(shè)在的政治話題中會發(fā)生重大的轉(zhuǎn)變但是大型社會技術(shù)系統(tǒng)在轉(zhuǎn)換的過程中仍術(shù)系統(tǒng)中本出了一種長期動態(tài)分析并索出上世紀(jì)四種不同制度的特點(diǎn)和短內(nèi)大幅度向設(shè)想的那種可持續(xù)發(fā)展的過渡轉(zhuǎn)變的可能性如果統(tǒng)在接下來的十70度中現(xiàn)在能源領(lǐng)域的特點(diǎn)是持續(xù)增加的電力需求幾乎完全依賴化石而在過1980在，電力和煤炭消費(fèi)增長均超過70%，而可再生能源僅增長至總凈發(fā)電的（如圖1所示。幾乎沒有分析師，這些犀利的突破趨勢，及大多數(shù)的減緩氣候變化情景的技術(shù)和經(jīng)濟(jì)分析，更接近于能源信息管理局的“正常營業(yè)。參考的的6.8%，但仍占2006和2030之間增量的四分之一，年收入約為50億“正構(gòu)構(gòu)成并管理電力系統(tǒng)同時一些表明一個越來越有效的可持續(xù)能源網(wǎng)絡(luò)已經(jīng)吸引了新的角色去傳統(tǒng)的能源系統(tǒng)，相對于在上世紀(jì)70年代有限的成功，在法律、政策和投資決策的廣泛變化正在逐步影響著這個行業(yè)。圖1：的發(fā)電的趨見解分析告知能源系統(tǒng)由于經(jīng)濟(jì)和生態(tài)獨(dú)特的熱力作用從而成為人類與環(huán)境關(guān)。雖然不是在這研究中大家唯一感的，但已收到相當(dāng)大的關(guān)注。這項(xiàng)工作致力于研究歐洲動態(tài)電力系統(tǒng)，從社會技術(shù)系統(tǒng)的角度來看，雖然看到電力行業(yè)發(fā)生的重析了可持續(xù)發(fā)展本文通過本研究包括休斯考慮電氣早期演化系統(tǒng)中介紹的90制度的兩個主要變化強(qiáng)調(diào)精英群體在行業(yè)發(fā)展的巨大作用雖然利用這些資源的理論和經(jīng)驗(yàn)，但在在1935年至1978年期間，他們像正弦＆的用處很大的賬也沒有考慮到最近的，重大的工業(yè)和能源環(huán)境景觀的變化也延伸了社會技術(shù)系統(tǒng)的文獻(xiàn)，重點(diǎn)是從過去的制度變遷中吸取到的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)，而也要關(guān)注未來變化。，在下一節(jié)中的理論將會闡明的分析。剩余的部分提出了一個在美國的電力系統(tǒng)發(fā)展的實(shí)證分析，在理論部分圍繞幾大，包括環(huán)境科學(xué)部，公民社會，，國家行動和機(jī)構(gòu)，以及它們都是由相關(guān)的資本和技術(shù)的發(fā)展變化決定的，的結(jié)論是突出的關(guān)鍵性分析本研究以行業(yè)的變化和最近的研究電力部門的90傳工作，它涉及了50個訪談和來術(shù)界，工業(yè)，公用事業(yè)，倡導(dǎo)團(tuán)體的線人，以及等具有廣泛性的焦點(diǎn)小組。然而此處所有的信息均來自公開可用的記錄2不同的分析的重點(diǎn)放在市場動態(tài)，政策的結(jié)果，或企業(yè)的行為上，在對社會多樣性。該方法的是概念，大型技術(shù)系統(tǒng)是由一個復(fù)雜的社會動態(tài)配置，包括法AssessingSustainabilityTransitionintheUSElectricalPowerSystemSustainability2010,2,551-575;:10.3390/su2020551ScottJiustoandStephenMcCauley:ThisprexaminessustainabilitytransitiondynamicsintheUSelectricitysystem,drawingonthesocio-technicalsystemsapproach.Weviewsystemchangeasunfoldingalongseveralcriticaldimensionsandgeographicalscales,includingdynamicsintheenvironment,science,civilsociety,discourse,andstateregulatoryinstitutions,aswellasincapitalandtechnologyformations.Aparticularemphasisisgiventotheinteractionofdiscourses,policynetworks,andinstitutions.Wetracefourdistinctregimeswhichhavecharacterizedtheevolutionofthisdiscourse-network-institutionalnexusoverthelastcentury.Theresearchexaminesdynamicsthatpresentachallengetotheincumbentenergyregimebasedonfossilfuels,nuclearandhydropower,anddemonstrateshowtheactor-networksupportingrenewablesandenergyefficiencyhasgrownstrongerandmorecapableofmovingtowardasustainabilitytransitionthanatanytimesincethesustainableenergymovementbeganagenerationago.Keywords:socio-technicalsystems;sustainabilitytransition;technologicalchange;electricitysystems;energypolicyInJulyof2008,formerVice-AlGoremadeaprominentandprovocativecallfortheUSto“committoproducing100percentofourelectricityfromrenewableenergyandtrulycleancarbon-freesourceswithin10years",claimingthatthegoalwasachievableandaffordableandthat“thefutureofhumancivilizationisatstake".Some31yearsearlier.JimmyCarter,speakingfromtheenergycrisisofthe1970s,hadsimilarlyframedenergysystemtransformationas“thegreatestchallengeourcountrywillfaceduringourlifetimes",yetonethat“wewillnotsolveinthenextfewyears，[instead]itislikelytoprogressivelyworsethroughtherestofthiscentury".Subsequentdevelopments-geopolitical,economicandclimate-related-haveproventhislaststatementprescient.Whatthenaretheprospectsfora“sustainabilitytransition"intheUSelectricitysystem.understoodasarestructuringthatsignificantlysteersthissystem,whichpresentlyaccountsforapproximay40%ofbothprimaryenergyuseandgreenhousegasemissions,towardafarmorerenewableandenergyefficienttrajectory?Evenbeforetheextentofthecurrenteconomicdownturnbecameobvious,theObamaadministrationtookofficeonaplatformcallingforinvestmentingreenenergytechnologiestopromoteeconomicgrowthandaddressclimateconcerns.Cleanenergydevelopmentnowformsacentralpartofthecountry'seconomicrecoveryplan,reflectingthebeliefthatamajorrebuildingofthecountry'senergyinfrastructureisrequiredandthatthescopeofsuchaneffortwouldgeneratesignificanteconomicactivity.WhilethesedevelopmentsrepresentamajorshiftinthepoliticaldiscourseintheUnitedStates.theprocessoftransitionsinlargesocio-technicalsystemsremainscomplex,fraughtwithcompetinginterests,andheavilydependentonhistoricalcontingencies.Thisprpresentsalong-termysisofdynamicsinthiscriticalsocio-technicalsystem,exploringfordistinctregimesthathavecharacterizedthesystemoverthelastcenturyandthathaveconditionedthelikelihoodofasubstantialnear-termshifttowardthesustainabilitytransitionGoreenvisions.Shouldthesystemmovesubstantiallyinthisdirectioninthenextdecade,tesisofthistransitionwouldlieinabroadrangeofsocial.environmentalandtechnicalprocessesthatrepresentbothcontinuityanddisjuncturewiththesehistoricregimesandwiththegenerationofsustainableenergyinnovationinitiatedinthe1970s.Agrowingbodyofresearchonsustainabilitytransitionsemphasizesthatshiftsinsocio-technicalsystemsoftenembodyafundamentalruptureincriticalprocessesundergirdinganincumbentsocio-technicalregime.Thisincumbentregimeintheenergysector,characterizedbypersistentlyincreasingelectricitydemandandalmostcompleterelianceonfossilfuel.nuclearandlargehydropowergeneratingplants,hasshowngreatresiliencyoverthepasthalfcentury.Since1980,electricityandcoalconsumptionintheUShavebothincreasedover70%,whilerenewableshavegrowntojust2.4%oftotalnetgeneration(FigureI).Fewystspredictasharpbreakwiththesetrends,andtechnicalandeconomicysesofclimatechangemitigationembracescenariosfarclosertotheEnergyInformationAdministration's"businessasusual"referencecasescenariothatshowselectricityconsumptionandcarbonemissionsincreasingmoreslowlythanpreviously,butstillbyoverone-quarterbetween2006and2030,whilerenewablesincreasetojust6.8%ofnetgeneration.Withannualrevenuesofsome$500billion,"businessasusual"intheelectricalpowerindustryenjoysthesupportofpowerfulsocial.financialandpoliticalinterestsreinforcedthroughpublicandprivateinstitutionsthatconstituteandmanagetheelectricitysystem.Atthesametime,weshowbelowthatanincreasinglyeffectivesustainableenergyactor-networkhasgrownandattractednewactorstochallengeconventionalenergysystemsand,relativetotheirlimitedsuccessesinthe1970s,isnowachievingmorebroad-basedchangesinthelaws,policies,andinvestmentdecisionsaffectingthisindustry.Figure1.Trendsinelectricity-generatingfuelsintheUS(dataPartandparceloftheseenergysectordevelopmentsareevolving,competingtheoriesofhowchangeinthesesystemscan(andshould)occur.Academicsnolessthanothersdebatingthecostsandconsequencesofclimatechangeoperatefromcomplexsetsofdisciplinaryandindividualcommitmentsandsthatareonlypartiallybridgeablethroughrecoursetoempiricalevidence.Keyinsightsinformingourysisare:energysystemsarecentraltohuman-environmentrelationsduetotheiruniquethermodynamicroleineconomicandecologicalsystems;thatverysubstantialandimmediatechangestowardlow-carbonenergysystemsarerequiredtomitigateclimatechange;thatwhiletheresourcebaseoffossilfuelsisofdiminishingquality,theflowofrenewableenergyresources-wind,sun,tidalflows,geothermal,etc.-vastlyexceedshumandemand;thatlarge"nonetcost"energyefficiencyandcarbonemissionsimprovementsareavailablethroughimprovedpolicymeasuresandconcerted,thoughnotheroic,effort;andthatsustainedpolicydeliberationwillbenecessarybuthardlysufficienttorealizethepotentialforarenewablesandefficiencytransition.Theysishereincludes,butextendsbeyond,questionsofpriceandtechnicalefficiencytoexplorehowprocessesofinnovationandsystemchangeunfoldthroughcomplexsocial,environmental,andtechnologicalWesituateourworkinrelationshiptotheliteraturesonsocio-technicalsystems,policynetworksanddiscourses,andsustainabilitytransitions.Asithas emoreevidentthatradicalrestructuringofcriticalsocietalsystemsisrequiredtoachievesustainability,researchoninnovationandsocio-technicalsystemchangehasfocusedonsteeringsystemstowardmoresustainableconfigurations.Energysystems,thoughnottheonlysystemsofinterestinthisresearch,havereceivedconsiderableattention.MuchofthisworkexaminesdynamicsinEuropeanelectricitysystems,assurprisinglylittleresearchhasyzedfromasocio-technicalsystemsthemajorshiftsthathaveoccurredintheUSelectricitysectorandtheirpotentialimpactsonasystem-levelsustainabilitytransition.EssentialliteratureinformingthisstudyincludesHughes'accountoftheearlyevolutionoftheUSelectricalsystemthatintroducedcoreconceptsthatcontinuetosh transmissionlinesandthelike-apanoplyofsocialactors,includinginventers,entrepreneurs,financiers,politicians,andothersdrivingsystemevolutionthrougha"seamlessweb"ofeconomic,political,institutionalandtechnicalprocesses.Hirshcarriesthestoryforwardtothelate1990s,throughtwomajorchangesintheinstitutional andemphasizingmoretheroleofelitegroupsin theindustry'sWhilewedrawonthesesourcestheoreticallyandempiricallythey,likeSine&David'susefulaccountoftheeffectofinstitutionalchangeonelectricalsectorentrepreneurialactivityduring1935-1978,donotforefrontintheirysesimplicationsforsustainability,nortakeintoaccountmorerecent,largechangesintheindustryandenergy-environmentlandsc.Wealsoextendthesocio-technicalsystemsliterature,whichgenerallyfocusesonlessonsfrompastsystemchanges,whereasourquestion,whilehistoricallygrounded,alsoconcernsprospectsforfuturechange.Finally,theworkcontributestoagrowingbodyofworkwhichcenterstheconceptofdiscourseformationintheysisofsocio-technicalsystemchange.Inthenextsection,wediscusstheoryinformingourysis.TheremainingsectionspresentanempiricalysisofdevelopmentsintheUSelectricitysystem,anizedaroundmajorthemesidentifiedinthetheorysection,includingsectionsonenvironmentandscience;civilsociety;discourse,stateactionandinstitutions;andalookatchangesinrelatedcapitalandtechnologydevelopmentdecisions.Weconcludebyhighlightingkeythemesrevealedintheysis.Theresearchisbaseduponysisofsecondarysources,includingpreviousstudiesofsectoralchangeandreportsofrecenectricalsectorinnovationinvestments.Theleadauthorparticipatedinastudyofsustainableenergyadvocacyeffortsinthe1990sthatinvolved50interviewsandafocusgroupwithawiderangeofinformantsfromacademia,industry,utilities,advocacygrou