房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的外在因素2

ExternalFactorinRealEstateMarkets

房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的外在因素ChengriDingAssociateProfessorNationalCenterforSmartGrowthUniversityofMarylandSpecialAssistantToPresidentofLincolnInstituteofLandPolicy’sChinaProgram丁成日博士,副教授馬里蘭大學(xué)城市規(guī)劃系馬里蘭大學(xué)城市理性增長(zhǎng)國(guó)家中心總裁特別助理林肯土地政策研究院中國(guó)項(xiàng)目部Outline大綱ExternalFactorsofPropertyMarkets房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的外在因素 HighestandBestPrinciple 最高與最佳原則ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces

政治、社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)力量的影響ExternalFactorsofPropertyMarkets

房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的外在因素2.RegionalandCommunityAnalysis

區(qū)域與社區(qū)分析3.NeighborhoodValueAnalysis

鄰里單元價(jià)值分析4.LandUsePlanning

土地利用規(guī)劃

PoliticalForcesinfluencingValue政治因素影響價(jià)值Propertyrightsandownership財(cái)產(chǎn)權(quán)和所有權(quán)ThefifthandFourteenthAmendmentsinUS美國(guó)第五和第十四修正案Federalfinancingaidsandfiscalpolicycontrols聯(lián)邦財(cái)政補(bǔ)助和財(cái)政控制Rateofinterests利率ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces

政治、社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)力量的影響SocialForcesinfluencingValue社會(huì)因素影響價(jià)值Populationgrowthrate(timelyandspatially)人口增長(zhǎng)率（時(shí)間與空間）Demographiccomposition(age,race,gender,income)人口構(gòu)成（年齡、種族、性別和收入）Housingpreference(Housing/per1000people)住房偏好（住房/千人）ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces

政治、社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)力量的影響

GeneralEconomicforcesInfluencingValue影響價(jià)值的經(jīng)濟(jì)因素Grossnationalproduct國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值Percapitaincomeandrealwagelevels人均收入和實(shí)際收入水平Unemploymentasameasureoffullemployment.Correlationbetweenunemployment,propertyforeclosures,andpropertytaxdelinquencies失業(yè)率衡量就業(yè)水平。失業(yè)率，喪失贖回權(quán)和拖欠財(cái)產(chǎn)稅的相關(guān)性Personalsavingandinvestments個(gè)人存款和投資Generalbusinessandrealestateactivity主要商業(yè)和地產(chǎn)活動(dòng)StateandRegionalForcesInfluencingValue國(guó)家和區(qū)域因素影響價(jià)值Differentialsofpolicyandlaw政策和法律差異Differentialsofeconomicprospective經(jīng)濟(jì)遠(yuǎn)景差異etc.等等GovernmentToolsintheRealEstateMarket

房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)中的政府手段Analyzehowgovernmentactionsaffectpropertyvalueandmakeappropriatechanges分析政府行為如何影響房地產(chǎn)價(jià)值并促其變化Monitormarketactivitytoqueueproposals,lesseningtheboom/bustcycle監(jiān)控市場(chǎng)行為以排序發(fā)展次序，減緩漲跌循環(huán)Useeconomicdevelopmentpoliciestoattractusesthatfitwiththeregion’smasterplan使用經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展政策來(lái)引導(dǎo)土地使用，其方式與強(qiáng)度與區(qū)域總體規(guī)劃相一至LocalGovernmentandPropertyValue

地方政府和房地產(chǎn)價(jià)值A(chǔ)bilitytoprovideserviceaffectsvalue服務(wù)能力影響價(jià)值Crimerate犯罪率Fireprotection火警預(yù)防Easeofdoingbusinessaffectsvalue從事商務(wù)活動(dòng)的方便性影響價(jià)值Propertytaxrate房地產(chǎn)稅率Regulatoryenvironment政策規(guī)范環(huán)境Liquorlicense酒精飲料銷售許可Zoningrequirements分區(qū)要求LocalGovernmentandPropertyValue

地方政府和房地產(chǎn)價(jià)值Externalitiesfromnearbyusesaffectvalue周圍環(huán)境等外在因素影響環(huán)境Noisefromairports機(jī)場(chǎng)噪聲Pollutionfromfactories工廠污染MonitoringLandMarketActivity

監(jiān)控土地市場(chǎng)活動(dòng)Goalistopreventoverbuildingthatleadstovacancies,disinvestment,andblight目標(biāo)在于防止建設(shè)過(guò)度而導(dǎo)致空置、蝕本和經(jīng)濟(jì)衰落Stillneedtoencouragecommercialdevelopmenttoincreasepropertytaxbaseandpromoteeconomicdevelopment仍需要鼓勵(lì)商業(yè)開(kāi)發(fā)以增加房地產(chǎn)稅基數(shù)和促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展MonitoringLandMarketActivity監(jiān)控土地市市場(chǎng)活動(dòng)PolicyTool:DevelopmentQueuing政策工具：：開(kāi)發(fā)次序序Plannersacceptproposalsandgrantpermissiontobuildonlyifmarketconditionsindicatethatdemandcanabsorbthenewspace規(guī)劃師審查查規(guī)劃方案案，僅審批批那些市場(chǎng)場(chǎng)可以消化化的建設(shè)Plannersestimatemarketconditionsthroughtraditionalmeans–gatheringdataaboutrents,vacancyrates,currentconstruction,jobgrowth,andspendingpatterns規(guī)劃師采用用傳統(tǒng)方式式——收集租金數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)，空置置率，建設(shè)設(shè)現(xiàn)狀，就就業(yè)率增長(zhǎng)長(zhǎng)和消費(fèi)模模式——來(lái)估計(jì)市場(chǎng)場(chǎng)形勢(shì)TheRealEstateMarket房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)場(chǎng)Immobility固定性Indestructibility不可破壞性性non-homogeneity異質(zhì)性Propertydissimilarityimposesspecialmarketconditions房地產(chǎn)的差差異性形成成了特殊的的市場(chǎng)條件件durabilityofrealestatecausesmal-adjustmentsinbothsupplyanddemandonalocalmarketlevel房地產(chǎn)的持持續(xù)性導(dǎo)致致對(duì)地方市市場(chǎng)供求的的不當(dāng)調(diào)整整Studyingtheunderlyingforcescreatingsupplyanddemandforrealproperty研究形成房房地產(chǎn)供求求的潛在力力量2.RegionalandCommunityAnalysis區(qū)域和社區(qū)區(qū)分析CauseofUrbanization城市化的結(jié)結(jié)果CitySpatialFormandGrowth城市空間形形態(tài)和增長(zhǎng)長(zhǎng)RegionalAnalysis區(qū)域分析Regionalanalysistechniques:economicbaseanalysis,regionalinput-outputanalysis區(qū)域分析方方法：經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)分析析，區(qū)域投投入產(chǎn)出分分析PopulationTrendsandCharacteristics人口趨勢(shì)和和特征EconomicMeasuresofCommunityGrowth社區(qū)增長(zhǎng)的的經(jīng)濟(jì)量化化LandUsePattern土地利用模模式RegionalandCommunityAnalysis區(qū)域和社區(qū)區(qū)分析NeighborhoodDefined鄰里的定義義TheNeighborhoodAgeCycle鄰里單元的的周期3.NeighborhoodValueAnalysis鄰里單元價(jià)價(jià)值分析NeighborhoodCharacteristics鄰里單元的的特征Physicalfeatures物質(zhì)特征Demographiccharacteristics人口特征Economicinfluences經(jīng)濟(jì)影響3.NeighborhoodValueAnalysis鄰里單元價(jià)價(jià)值分析4.LandUsePlanning——Zoning土地利用規(guī)規(guī)劃——分區(qū)Density密度Use使用Intensity強(qiáng)度Location區(qū)位UrbanBidRentAgriculturalRentDistancefromCenterPeriodIIIPeriodIII:DemolitionDensityControl--FloorAreaRatio密度控制——容積率CBDUrbanEdge$PeriodIPeriodIIPeriodIII:UrbanRedevelopmentWhatwillhappentotherelationbetweenlandvalueandbuildingvalueifbuildingheightlimitisimposed?WoB.H.L.WB.H.L.LandUseRightsintheUnitedStates美國(guó)土地使使用權(quán)Landamarketablecommodity土地是可交交易商品Bundleofsticks權(quán)利束Usedeterminedbyhigherbidder.最高報(bào)價(jià)者者決定使用用Stateshaverightstocontrollandusetoprotecthealth,safety,morals,andwelfare州政府有權(quán)權(quán)控制土地地使用以保保護(hù)健康、、安全、道道德和福利利。Moststatesdelegateauthoritytolocalgovernments.多數(shù)州下放放權(quán)利至地地方政府ObjectivesofZoning分區(qū)的目的的ControlExternalities控制形態(tài)ProtectFarmland保護(hù)農(nóng)田ComplementInfrastructure完善基礎(chǔ)設(shè)設(shè)施Maximizetaxbase最大化稅收收基數(shù)PreserveCommunityCharacter保護(hù)社區(qū)個(gè)個(gè)性Excludetheunwanted消除閑置土土地AllowableUseZoningandUrbanLandMarkets允許使用的的分區(qū)和城城市土地市市場(chǎng)Landallocationdeterminedbymarketforcesintheabsenceofzoning.沒(méi)有分區(qū)規(guī)規(guī)劃時(shí)土地地資源分配配由市場(chǎng)決決定Marketallocationcanbeimperfectinthepresenceofexternalities在外部效應(yīng)應(yīng)存在的情情形下，市市場(chǎng)分配配結(jié)果有缺缺陷Zoningcanbeusedtocorrectexternalitiesortomisguideawell-functioningmarket.分區(qū)規(guī)劃可可以糾正外外部效應(yīng)或或者誤導(dǎo)運(yùn)運(yùn)作良好的的市場(chǎng)Landpricescanbeusedtodetermineifzoninghasimpacts.土地價(jià)格可可以用于決決定是否分分區(qū)規(guī)劃對(duì)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生影響Commercialrents$Residentialrents$CommerciallandResidentiallandTotallandRcRrRc*Rr*Commercialrents$Residentialrents$CommerciallandResidentiallandRcRrRc’Commercialrents$Residentialrents$CommerciallandResidentiallandRcRrRr*Rc*DensityZoningandUrbanLandMarkets密度分區(qū)和和城市土地地市場(chǎng)Landrentgradientsw/odensityzoning沒(méi)有密度分分區(qū)時(shí)的土土地租金梯梯度Landrentgradientsw/densityzoning有密度分區(qū)區(qū)時(shí)的土地地租金梯度度Thepriceeffectsofdensityzoning密度分區(qū)的的價(jià)格影響響Thewelfareeffectsofdensityzoning密度分區(qū)的的福利影響響HighestandBestUsePrinciple最高與最好好使用原則則Concepts概念Presentvalue現(xiàn)在價(jià)值A(chǔ)mortization分期償還Value,capitalrate,andrent(Netoperatingincome—rent)價(jià)值，資金金率和租金金（凈收益益——租金）Futurevalue(=0)未來(lái)價(jià)值2.Highestandbestuseanalysis最高與最佳佳使用分析析HighestandBestUseAnalysis最高與最好好分析Thehighestandbestuseofvacantland閑置土地的的最高與最最佳使用Thehighestandbestuseoftheimprovedsite已開(kāi)發(fā)土地地的最高與與最佳原則則HighestandBestUseAnalysis最高與與最好好分析析Fourcriteria:四項(xiàng)條條件：：Physicalpossible:size,shape,terrain,capacity,availabilityofutilitiesetc.物質(zhì)上上可行行：尺尺寸，，形態(tài)態(tài)，地地形，，容量量，服服務(wù)設(shè)設(shè)施等等Legallypermissible:restriction,zoning,buildingcodes,environmentalregulationsandotherslaws.法律上上允許許：限限制，，分區(qū)區(qū)，建建筑規(guī)規(guī)范，，環(huán)境境規(guī)則則和其其他法法律Financialfeasible:iftheprojectproduceanincomeorreturnequaltoorgreaterthantheamountneededtocovercosts.經(jīng)濟(jì)上上可行行：如如果項(xiàng)項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)產(chǎn)出等等于或或大于于投入入Maximallyproductive.最大生生產(chǎn)率率ApartmentOfficeRetail公寓辦辦公零零售Costofconstruction$1,021,600$928,000$817,300建設(shè)投投資Effectivegrossincome有效毛毛收入入$265,000$200,000$180,000Operatingexpenses-$135,000-$80,000-$69,000運(yùn)營(yíng)費(fèi)費(fèi)用--------------------------------------------$130,000$120,000$111,000Assuminga20year-yearlifeforthebuilding,thenPV=thecostofconstruction,FV=0,i=1,n=20.HighestandBestUseforaVacantLot閑置土土地的的最高高與最最佳使使用ForApartment:NOItoland=NOIoftotal-buildingamortizationcost$10,000=$130,000-$120,000SiteValue:V=R/I=10,000/0.10=$100,000ApartmentOfficeRetailIncometobuilding@10%$120,000$109,000$96,000Incometosite$10,000$11,000$15,000Indicatedsitevalue@10%$100,000$110,000$150,000SoRetailhasthehighestvalueforthesiteHighestandBestUseofAPropertyasImproved房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)更新新的最最高與與最佳佳原則則Thealternativesare不同方方案:Renovatetheexistingstores,spending$20,000更新現(xiàn)現(xiàn)存商商店，，花2萬(wàn)美元元Converttheexistingspacetooffices,spending$40,000改成辦辦公，，花4萬(wàn)Demolishandconstructanewbuilding.拆除，，建設(shè)設(shè)新辦辦公樓樓ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct(retail)OfficeNewBlgAcquisitionprice$200,000$200,000$200,000Renovationcost$20,000$40,0000Constructioncost00$700,000Demolishcost00$30,000Totalcosts$220,000$240,000$930,000Theacquisitionpricewillbeallocated80percenttoimprovementand20percenttoland.PV=buildingcosts,FV=0,i=10,n=estimatedeconomiclife.ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct(retail)OfficeNewBlgBuildingcost(80%)$160,000$160,000$0Newconstruction20,00040,000700,000TotalA