2030年的中國：建設現(xiàn)代、和諧、有創(chuàng)造力的高收入社會

xvixvichina2030china2030china2030xvExecutiveSummaryxvixvichina2030china2030china2030xvxvixvichina2030china2030china2030xvByanystandard,China'seconomicperformanceoverthelastthreedecadeshasbeenimpressive.GDPgrowthaveraged10percentayear,andover500millionpeoplewereliftedoutofpoverty.Chinaisnowtheworld'slargestexporterandmanufacturer,anditssecondlargesteconomy.Evenifgrowthmoderates,Chinaislikelytobecomeahigh-incomeeconomyandtheworld'slargesteconomybefore2030,notwithstandingthefactthatitspercapitaincomewouldstillbeafractionoftheaverageinadvancedeconomies.Buttwoquestionsarise.CanChina'sgrowthratestillbeamongthehighestintheworldevenifitslowsfromitscurrentpace?Andcanitmaintainthisrapidgrowthwithlittledisruptiontotheworld,theenvironment,andthefabricofitsownsociety?Thisreportanswersbothquestionsintheaffirmative,withoutdownplayingtherisks.By2030,Chinahasthepotentialtobeamodern,harmonious,andcreativehigh-incomesociety.Butachievingthisobjectivewillnotbeeasy.Toseizeitsopportunities,meetitsmanychallenges,andrealizeitsdevelopmentvisionfor2030,Chinaneedstoimplementanewdevelopmentstrategyinitsnextphaseofdevelopment.ThereformsthatlaunchedChinaonitscurrentgrowthtrajectorywereinspiredbyDengXiaopingwhoplayedanimportantroleinbuildingconsensusforafundamentalshiftinthecountry'sstrategy.Aftermorethan30yearsofrapidgrowth,Chinahasreachedanotherturningpointinitsdevelopmentpathwhenasecondstrategic,andnolessfundamental,shiftiscalledfor.The12thFiveYearPlanprovidesanexcellentstart.Thisreportcombinesitskeyelementstodesignalonger-termstrategythatextendsto2030.Moreimportantly,itfocusesonthe“how,”notjustthe“what.”Siximportantmessagesemergefromtheanalysis:First,implementstructuralreformstostrengthenthefoundationsforamarketbasedeconomybyredefiningtheroleofgovernment,reformingandrestructuringstateenterprisesandbanks,developingtheprivatesector,promotingcompetition,anddeepeningreformsintheland,labor,andfinancialmarkets.Asaneconomyapproachesthetechnologyfrontierandexhauststhepotentialforacquiringandapplyingtechnologyfromabroad,theroleofthegovernmentanditsrelationshiptomarketsandtheprivatesectorneedtochangefundamentally.Whileprovidingrelativelyfewer“tangible”publicgoodsandservicesdirectly,thegovernmentwillneedtoprovidemoreintangiblepublicgoodsandserviceslikesystems,rules,andpolicies,whichincreaseproductionefficiency,promotecompetition,facilitatespecialization,enhancetheefficiencyofresourceallocation,protecttheenvironment,andreducerisksanduncertainties.Intheenterprisesector,thefocuswillneedtobefurtherreformsofstateenterprises(includingmeasurestorecalibratetheroleofpublicresources,introducemoderncorporategovernancepracticesincludingseparatingownershipfrommanagement,andimplementgradualownershipdiversificationwherenecessary),privatesectordevelopmentandfewerbarrierstoentryandexit,andincreasedcompetitioninallsectors,includinginstrategicandpillarindustries.Inthefinancialsector,itwouldrequirecommercializingthebankingsystem,graduallyallowinginterestratestobesetbymarketforces,deepeningthecapitalmarket,anddevelopingthelegalandsupervisoryinfrastructuretoensurefinancialstabilityandbuildthecrediblefoundationsfortheinternationalizationofChina'sfinancialsector.Inthelabormarket,Chinaneedstoacceleratephasedreformsofthehukousystemtoensurethatby2030Chineseworkerscanmoveinresponsetomarketsignals.Italsoneedstointroducemeasurestoincreaselaborforceparticipationrates,rethinkwagepolicy,andusesocialsecurityinstruments(pensions,health,andunemploymentinsurance)thatareportablenationwide.Finally,rurallandmarketsneedtobeoverhauledtoprotectfarmerrightsandincreaseefficiencyoflanduse,andpoliciesforacquisitionofrurallandforurbanusemustbethoroughlyoverhauledtopreventurbansprawl,reducelocalgovernmentdependencyonland-relatedrevenues,andaddressafrequentcauseofcomplaintfromfarmers.Second,acceleratethepaceofinnovationandcreateanopeninnovationsysteminwhichcompetitivepressuresencourageChinesefirmstoengageinproductandprocessinnovationnotonlythroughtheirownresearchanddevelopmentbutalsobyparticipatinginglobalresearchanddevelopmentnetworks.Chinahasalreadyintroducedarangeofinitiativesinestablishingaresearchanddevelopmentinfrastructureandisfaraheadofmostotherdevelopingcountries.Itsprioritygoingforwardistoincreasethequalityofresearchanddevelopment,ratherthanjustquantity.Toachievethis,policymakerswillneedtofocuson:increasingthetechnicalandcognitiveskillsofuniversitygraduatesandbuildingafewworld-classresearchuniversitieswithstronglinkstoindustry;fostering“innovativecities”thatbringtogetherhigh-qualitytalent,knowledgenetworks,dynamicfirms,andlearninginstitutions,andallowthemtointeractwithoutrestriction;andincreasingtheavailabilityofpatientriskcapitalforstartupprivatefirms.Third,seizetheopportunityto“gogreen”throughamixofmarketincentives,regulations,publicinvestments,industrialpolicy,andinstitutionaldevelopment.Encouraginggreendevelopmentandincreasedefficiencyofresourceuseisexpectedtonotonlyimprovethelevelofwell-beingandsustainrapidgrowth,butalsoaddressChina'smanifoldenvironmentalchallenges.Theintentionistoencouragenewinvestmentsinarangeoflow-pollution,energy-andresource-efficientindustriesthatwouldleadtogreenerdevelopment,spurinvestmentsinrelatedupstreamanddownstreammanufacturingandservices,andbuildinternationalcompetitiveadvantageinaglobalsunriseindustry.Thesepolicieshavethepotentialtosucceed,givenChina'smanyadvantages—itslargemarketsizethatwillallowrapidscalingupofsuccessfultechnologiestoachieveeconomiesofscaleandreducedunitcosts,ahighinvestmentratethatwillpermitrapidreplacementofold,ineffi-cient,andenvironmentallydamagingcapitalstock;itsgrowinganddynamicprivatesectorthatwillrespondtonewsignalsfromgovernment,provideditgetsaccesstoadequatelevelsoffinance;andarelativelywell-developedresearchanddevelopmentinfrastructurethatcanbeharnessedtoreachandthenexpandthe“green”technologyfrontier.Fourth,expandopportunitiesandpromotesocialsecurityforallbyfacilitatingequalaccesstojobs,finance,qualitysocialservices,andportablesocialsecurity.Thesepolicieswillbecriticalinreversingrisinginequality,helpinghouseholdsmanageemployment-,health-,andage-relatedrisks,andincreasinglabormobility.China'srelativelyhighsocialandeconomicinequality(somedimensionsofwhichhavebeenincreasing)stemsinlargepartfromlargerural-urbandifferencesinaccesstojobs,keypublicservices,andsocialprotection.Reversingthistrendrequiresthreecoordinatedactions:deliveringmoreandbetterqualitypublicservicestounderservedruralareasandmigrantpopulationsfromearlychildhoodtotertiaryeducationinstitutionsandfromprimaryhealthcaretocarefortheaged;restructuringsocialsecuritysystemstoensuresecuresocialsafetynets;andmobilizingallsegmentsofsociety—publicandprivate,governmentandsocialorganizations—toshareresponsibilitiesinfinancing,deliveringandmonitoringthedeliveryofsocialservices.Fifth,strengthenthefiscalsystembymobilizingadditionalrevenuesandensuringlocalgovernmentshaveadequatefinancingtomeetheavyandrisingexpenditureresponsibilities.Manyofthereformsproposedinthisdevelopmentstrategy—enterpriseandfinancialsectorreforms,greendevelopment,equalityofopportunityforall—haveimplicationsforthelevelandallocationofpublicexpenditures.Overthenexttwodecades,theagendaforstrengtheningthefiscalsystemwillinvolvethreekeydimensions:mobilizingadditionalfiscalresourcestomeetrisingbudgetarydemands;reallocatingspendingtowardsocialandenvironmentalobjectives;andensuringthatbudgetaryresourcesavailableatdifferentlevelsofgovernment(central,provincial,prefectural,county,township,village)arecommensuratewithexpenditureresponsibilities.Withoutappropriatefiscalreforms,manyoftheotherreformelementsofthenewdevelopmentstrategywouldbedifficulttomoveforward.Sixth,seekmutuallybeneficialrelationswiththeworldbybecomingapro-activestakeholderintheglobaleconomy,activelyusingmultilateralinstitutionsandframeworks,andshapingtheglobalgovernanceagenda.China'sintegrationwiththeglobaleconomyserveditwelloverthepastthreedecades.Bycontinuingtointensifyitstrade,investment,andfinanciallinkswiththeglobaleconomyoverthenexttwodecades,Chinawillbeabletobenefitfromfurtherspecialization,increasedinvestmentopportunitiesandhigherreturnstocapital,andmutuallybeneficialflowofideasandknowledge.Asakeystakeholderintheglobaleconomy,Chinamustremainpro-activeinresuscitatingthestalledDohamultilateraltradenegotiations,advocate“openregionalism”asafeatureofregionaltradingarrangements,andsupportamultilateralagreementoninvestmentflows.IntegratingtheChinesefinancialsectorwiththeglobalfinancialsystem,whichwillinvolveopeningthecapitalaccount(amongotherthings),willneedtobeundertakensteadilyandwithconsiderablecare,butitwillbeakeysteptowardinternationalizingtherenminbiasaglobalreservecurrency.Finally,Chinamustplayacentralroleinengagingwithitspartnersinmultilateralsettingstoshapetheglobalgovernanceagendaandaddresspressingglobaleconomicissuessuchasclimatechange,