十一diffusionofinnovations創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散

十一diffusionofinnovations創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散11.創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散

Diffusionofinnovations11.1創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散研究11.2創(chuàng)新的特征11.3創(chuàng)新者的特征11.4環(huán)境思考：是什么因素促使你使用互聯(lián)網(wǎng)？請列舉。思考：你是否通過網(wǎng)上購物？如果是，請列舉促使你使用網(wǎng)絡(luò)購物的原因如果不是，請列舉不通過網(wǎng)上購物的原因11.1創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散研究創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散模型是對創(chuàng)新采用的各類人群進(jìn)行研究歸類的一種模型理論思想：在創(chuàng)新面前，部分人會比另一部分人思想更開放，更愿意采納創(chuàng)新這個(gè)模型也被稱之為創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散理論（DiffusionofInnovationsTheory），或多步創(chuàng)新流動(dòng)理論（Multi-StepFlowTheory）創(chuàng)新采用曲線（InnovationAdoptionCurve）創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散“創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散理論”是美國學(xué)者埃弗雷特?羅杰斯（E.M.Rogers）提出的埃弗雷特·羅杰斯認(rèn)為創(chuàng)新是：“一種被個(gè)人或其他采納單位視為新穎的觀念、時(shí)間或事物?！彼伎迹耗男〇|西可稱作創(chuàng)新？創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散一項(xiàng)創(chuàng)新應(yīng)具備相對的便利性兼容性復(fù)雜性可靠性可感知性另一美國學(xué)者羅杰?菲德勒則認(rèn)為創(chuàng)新還應(yīng)當(dāng)包括“熟悉”這一要素創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散羅杰斯把創(chuàng)新的采用者分為革新者早期采用者早期追隨者晚期追隨者落后者創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散包括五個(gè)階段了解階段：接觸新技術(shù)新事物，但知之甚少。興趣階段：發(fā)生興趣，并尋求更多的信息。評估階段：聯(lián)系自身需求，考慮是否采納。試驗(yàn)階段：觀察是否適合自己的情況。采納階段：決定在大范圍內(nèi)實(shí)施。創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散被定義為以一定的方式隨時(shí)間在社會系統(tǒng)的各種成員間進(jìn)行傳播的過程擴(kuò)散過程就由創(chuàng)新傳播渠道時(shí)間社會系統(tǒng)四個(gè)要素組成由此可見，傳播渠道成為其中一個(gè)重要的環(huán)節(jié)。創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散的傳播過程可以用一條“S”形曲線來描述在擴(kuò)散的早期，采用者很少，進(jìn)展速度也很慢當(dāng)采用者人數(shù)擴(kuò)大到居民的10%~25%時(shí)，進(jìn)展突然加快，曲線迅速上升并保持這一趨勢，即所謂的“起飛期“在接近飽和點(diǎn)時(shí)，進(jìn)展又會減緩。整個(gè)過程類似于一條“S”形的曲線創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散在創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散過程中，早期采用者為后來的起飛作了必要的準(zhǔn)備。這個(gè)看似“勢單力薄”的群體能夠在人際傳播中發(fā)揮很大的作用，勸說他人接受創(chuàng)新（馬云的例子）創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散在羅杰斯看來，早期采用者就是愿意率先接受和使用創(chuàng)新事物并甘愿為之冒風(fēng)險(xiǎn)那部分人這些人不僅對創(chuàng)新初期的種種不足有著較強(qiáng)的忍耐力，還能夠?qū)ψ陨硭幐魅后w的意見領(lǐng)袖展開“游說“，使之接受以至采用創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品之后，創(chuàng)新又通過意見領(lǐng)袖們迅速向外擴(kuò)散。這樣，創(chuàng)新距其“起飛期“的來臨已然不遠(yuǎn)創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散羅杰斯指出，創(chuàng)新事物在一個(gè)社會系統(tǒng)中要能繼續(xù)擴(kuò)散下去，首先必須有一定數(shù)量的人采納這種創(chuàng)新物通常，這個(gè)數(shù)量是人口的10％-20%創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散比例一旦達(dá)到臨界數(shù)量，擴(kuò)散過程就起飛，進(jìn)入快速擴(kuò)散階段飽和點(diǎn)（saturatedpoint）的概念是指創(chuàng)新在社會系統(tǒng)中一般不總能100％擴(kuò)散創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散事實(shí)上，很多創(chuàng)新在社會系統(tǒng)中最終只能擴(kuò)散到某個(gè)百分比。當(dāng)系統(tǒng)中的創(chuàng)新采納者再也沒有增加時(shí)，系統(tǒng)中的創(chuàng)新采納者數(shù)量（絕對數(shù)量表示）或創(chuàng)新采納者比例（相對數(shù)量表示），就是該創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散的飽和點(diǎn)。創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散羅杰斯認(rèn)為，創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散總是借助一定的社會網(wǎng)絡(luò)進(jìn)行的，在創(chuàng)新向社會推廣和擴(kuò)散的過程中，信息技術(shù)能夠有效地提供相關(guān)的知識和信息，但在說服人們接受和使用創(chuàng)新方面，人際交流則顯得更為直接、有效創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散因此，創(chuàng)新推廣的最佳途徑是將信息技術(shù)和人際傳播結(jié)合起來加以應(yīng)用思考：如果面試時(shí)你要幫一家公司，例如佛山移動(dòng)公司設(shè)計(jì)動(dòng)感地帶推廣方案，你如何設(shè)計(jì)？（理論的功能）創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散理論是多級傳播模式在創(chuàng)新領(lǐng)域的具體運(yùn)用在創(chuàng)新向社會推廣和擴(kuò)散的過程中，大眾傳播能夠有效地提供相關(guān)的知識和信息，而在說服人們接受和使用創(chuàng)新方面，人際傳播則顯得更為直接、有效因此，羅杰斯認(rèn)為，推廣創(chuàng)新的最佳途徑是“雙管齊下“將大眾傳播和人際傳播結(jié)合起來加以應(yīng)用創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散“S”形曲線理論在市場營銷、廣告推廣、產(chǎn)品代謝以及媒介生命周期的研究方面都得到了承認(rèn)，有著廣闊的應(yīng)用前景。Rogers創(chuàng)新采用曲線創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散研究的五個(gè)焦點(diǎn)對創(chuàng)新成果采用與否有重要影響的創(chuàng)新活動(dòng)自身的特征人們在考慮一個(gè)新主意、一件新產(chǎn)品或一項(xiàng)新項(xiàng)目時(shí)所采取的決策過程采用創(chuàng)新人群的一些個(gè)人特征個(gè)人或社會采用創(chuàng)新的后果和影響采用創(chuàng)新過程中的溝通渠道創(chuàng)新采用曲線類別創(chuàng)新者（Innovators）他們是勇敢的先行者，自覺推動(dòng)創(chuàng)新。創(chuàng)新者在創(chuàng)新交流過程中，發(fā)揮著非常重要的作用。早期采用者（EarlyAdopters）他們是受人尊敬的社會人士，是公眾意見領(lǐng)袖，他們樂意引領(lǐng)時(shí)尚、嘗試新鮮事物，但行為謹(jǐn)慎。早期采用人群（EarlyMajority）他們是有思想的一群人，也比較謹(jǐn)慎，但他們較之普通人群更愿意、更早地接受變革。創(chuàng)新采用曲線類別后期采用人群（LateMajority）他們是持懷疑態(tài)度的一群人，只有當(dāng)社會大眾普遍接受了新鮮事物的時(shí)候，他們才會采用。遲緩者（Laggards）他們是保守傳統(tǒng)的一群人，習(xí)慣于因循守舊，對新鮮事物吹毛求疵，只有當(dāng)新的發(fā)展成為主流、成為傳統(tǒng)時(shí)，他們才會被動(dòng)接受創(chuàng)新采用曲線的運(yùn)用Rogers的創(chuàng)新采用曲線說明，試圖快速印證、廣泛采用全新的、爭議中的創(chuàng)新主意，是不現(xiàn)實(shí)的促進(jìn)創(chuàng)新采用的最好的方法是，首先說服創(chuàng)新者與早期采用者在溝通過程中，還可以結(jié)合創(chuàng)新類別與采用百分比，更為準(zhǔn)確地估計(jì)目標(biāo)群體11.1創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散研究BarbaraWejnert(2002):Integratingmodelsofdiffusionofinnovations:AConceptualFramework,AnnualReviewofSociology,28:297–326擴(kuò)散的定義Whatisadiffusion? “Diffusionistheprocessbywhichaninnovationiscommunicatedthroughcertainchannelsovertime

amongthemembersofasocialsystem.”--EverettRogers(1995)DiffusionofInnovation,4thed.創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散Diffusionofinnovationsreferstothespreadofabstractideasandconcepts（例如民主的擴(kuò)散、西學(xué)東漸、馬克思主義引入中國）technicalinformation（互聯(lián)網(wǎng)、短信）actualpractices（買“碼”）Thespreaddenotestheflowormovementfromasourcetoanadopter,typicallyviacommunicationandinfluence(Rogers1995)創(chuàng)新的采納者Communicationandinfluencealteranadopter’sprobabilityofadoptinganinnovationAnactormaybeanysocietalentity,includingIndividualsGroupsOrganizationsNationalpolities創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散：研究的意義StudiesofdiffusionAnempiricalandquantitativebasisfordevelopingmorerigorousapproachestotheoriesofsocialchange(e.g.,newconceptualandmathematicalexplanationsofsocialchange)(DeFleur1966)Oftenusedinassessmentsofworldeconomicandpoliticaldevelopments創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散研究特征跨學(xué)科的特征SociologyEconomicsPoliticalscienceCommunication過往關(guān)于創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散的研究Iowa農(nóng)民使用雜交玉米（hybrid-cornuseamongIowafarmers）（Ryan&Gross，1943），之后4000多篇論文發(fā)表農(nóng)業(yè)實(shí)踐（agriculturalpractices）(Fliegel1993,Griliches1957)技術(shù)(technologies)(Burt1987,Colemanetal.1966,Palmeretal.1993)過往關(guān)于創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散的研究節(jié)育方式(fertility-controlmethods)(Rogers&cKincaid1981,Rosero-Bixby&Casterline1994)政策創(chuàng)新(policyinnovations)(Berry&cBerry1992,Boli-Bennett&Ramirez1987,Valente1995)政治改革(politicalreforms)(Meyer1987,Starr1991)影響擴(kuò)散的變量CharacteristicsofinnovationsCharacteristicsofinnovatorsEnvironmentalcontext11.2創(chuàng)新的特征characteristicsoftheinnovationCharacteristicsofinnovationspublicversusprivateconsequencesbenefitsversuscosts創(chuàng)新的特征之一：公眾后果vs.私人后果Privatevs.publicconsequencesrefertotheimpactofaninnovation’sadoptiononentitiesotherthantheactor(publicconsequences）versusthattheactoritself(privateconsequences)公眾后果Innovationsthatresultinpublicconsequencesinvolvecollectiveactors—countries,stateswithincountries,andorganizationsandsocialmovements—mostlyconcernedwithissuesofsocietalwell-beingAmongsuchinnovationsarePoliticalmodelsofdemocracy(Uhlin1995,Wejnert2001)Welfareandeducationpolicies(Thomas&Lauderdale1987,Boli-Bennett&Meyer1978)Statelaws(Berry&Berry1990,1992)私人后果Innovationswithprivateconsequencesaffectthewell-beingofadoptersthatareeitherIndividualssmallcollectiveentitiessuchasorganizations,peergroups,andruralcommunities.Theseinnovationsareintendedtoimprovethequalityofindividuallivesortoreformorganizationalandsocialstructures創(chuàng)新過程的決定因素創(chuàng)新來源（thesourceofaninnovation）與采納者（adopter）之間的互動(dòng)機(jī)制（mechanismsofinteraction）決定創(chuàng)新過程Innovationswithpublicconsequences：采納的因素ITheinformationandimitativemodelsareuniformlydistributedaroundtheworldThenorms,values,orexpectationsaboutcertainformsorpracticesbecomedeeplyingrainedinsociety—institutionalized—andreflectwidespreadandsharedunderstandingsofsocialreality(Meyer&Rowan1977:343)例如：rapidspreadofmasseducationsocialsecuritysystemsmodelsofnation-statesamongtheworld’spoliticalstatesInnovationswithpublicconsequences：采納的因素IIMediabecomesachannelofinfluenceonadoptionprimarilywhentheinnovationsarepopular,well-definedsocietalissues民主模式的擴(kuò)散AdoptionofdemocracymodelTheinstitutionalizationofdemocracyMediaCountryto-countryinteraction帶來私人后果的創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散Thespatialandtemporalcontiguity（接近）betweenasourceofanewpracticeandapotentialadopter帶來私人后果的創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散AdoptionofaninnovationwithprivateconsequencesThepressureofsocialnetworksSpatialeffectsgeographicproximityinterpersonalcommunicationinstitutionalorindividualcoercion創(chuàng)新的特征之二：Benefitsvs.costsCost：monetaryandnonmonetarydirectandindirectcosts,orrisksassociatedwiththeadoptionofaninnovationDirectcosts,orfinancialuncertainty：patentsofindustrialinnovation,newagriculturalseeds,fertilizersorequipment,computer-operatedmachines,satelliteantennas,orreformofsocialpoliciesIndirectcosts,ortechnicaluncertainty：timespentonretrainingalaborforcetouseaninnovation;socialcostsuchasinnovation-inducedsocialconflict（例如計(jì)劃生育在農(nóng)村社會的沖突）11.3CharacteristicsofInnovatorsCharacteristicsofinnovatorssocietalentityfamiliaritywiththeinnovationstatuscharacteristicssocioeconomiccharacteristicspositioninsocialnetworkspersonalcharacteristics創(chuàng)新者特征之一：Societalentityofinnovators創(chuàng)新者的劃分LargecollectiveactorsSmallcollectiveactorsIndividualactors創(chuàng)新者的影響變量thetypeofinnovationselectedforadoptionthenatureofinteractionsbetweenthesourceofaninnovationandanadoptertheimportanceofstrongvs.weaksocialtiesinadoptionthemacrovs.microcharacterofadoptionoutcomesAdoptionsbylargecollectiveactors創(chuàng)新的類型：大規(guī)模的歷史變革educationalmodelswelfarepolicieslandreformmodelsdemocracymodelspatentlawsstatepolicySmallcollectiveactorsSmallcollectiveactors包括：firmnetworksOrganizationsgroupsoffriends采納的創(chuàng)新multinationalenterprise(MNE)strategybymaturemotorvehicleindustriesthestyleofmanagementofnewlymergedindustrialunitsstrategiesofviolenceadoptedbyyouthgangmembersIndividualactors成員是否采納創(chuàng)新很大程度上取決于interactionsthroughstrongties,suchasthecommunitytiesandface-to-faceinteractionsthenetworkconnectednessthatfacilitatesinterpersonalinteractionscompatibilitybetweenthecharacteristicsofaninnovationandtheneedsofanactor創(chuàng)新者特征之二：Familiaritywiththeinnovationtherateofadoptionofaninnovation—allotherfactorsbeingequal—increasesasitsnoveltydecreases(Greve1998)提高創(chuàng)新熟悉度的方法mediainformationtheopinionofexpertsobservingtheoutcomesofotheractorsinformationobtainedfromclosepeerslocatedinsocialandorganizationalnetworks創(chuàng)新者特征之三：StatuscharacteristicsCollectiveactorswithhighstatususuallyadoptaninnovationfirstandthenimposeadoptionoftheinnovationonlowerstatusactorsLoweconomicstatusofthirdworldcountriesdramaticallyslowedtheworldwidediffusionofmodernagriculturalpracticesHigh-statuscollectiveactorscanalsoaffectindividualadoptions:例如發(fā)展中國家，政府對那些采用新的農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)的農(nóng)民提供補(bǔ)貼創(chuàng)新者特征之三：StatuscharacteristicsThepredictivepowerofanindividualactor’sstatusonadoptionofaninnovationvariespositivelywiththeprominenceoftheactor’spositioninanetworkWeimann&Brosius(1994)arguedthatanactor’sstatuscharacteristicsinteractwithmediaeffectsbecausemediamainlyaffecthigh-statusmemberswhoidentifyinnovationsandthenspreadthemwithinagroupoflower-statusmembers創(chuàng)新者特征之四：socioeconomiccharacteristicsTwocategoriesofsocioeconomicvariablesEconomicSociodemographicIndividualactorvariablesEducationlevelEconomicwell-beingCosmopolitanism創(chuàng)新者特征之四：socioeconomiccharacteristicsVariablesofcollectiveactorsDegreeoftechnologicaladvancementGNPLevelofdevelopment(developedvs.developingcountries)FinancialresourcesCentrallyplannedversusmarketeconomiesPoliticalsystemLabormarketpractice創(chuàng)新者特征之五：positioninsocialnetworks(a)interpersonalnetworksforindividualactors(b)organizationalnetworksforcollectiveactors(c)structuralequivalenceofindividualandcollectiveactors(d)socialdensity(a)InterpersonalnetworksforindividualactorsDirectinteractionsbetweenindividualssignificantlyaccountedforadoptionofavarietyofinnovationsAdoptionbysomeactorshasacumulativeeffectontheadoptiondecisionsofotheractorsinthesocialnetworkAdoptionisbetteraccountedforasanetworkbaseddecision,whereexposuretoaninnovationthroughanetworkofpeershasacumulativelyincreasinginfluenceonadoptionaspressuretowardconformitybuildsandasrisksperceivedbypotentialadoptersdecrease(b)OrganizationalnetworksforcollectiveactorsSwan&Newell(1995)arguedthatthenetworkofprofessionalorganizationswasthesinglemostinfluentialvariableindeterminingtheadoptionofnewtechnologybyfirmsChaves(1996)indicatedthattheexistenceofreligiousnetworksalmostdoubledtheprobabilityofadoptionofthepracticeofordinationofwomen組織網(wǎng)絡(luò)如何影響采納Informative，bywhichmemberslearnofthenewestindustrialdevelopmentsConducive,facilitatingcontactwithformeradoptersEducational,providingprofessionaladvisingonnewdevelopmentsCoercive,usingexplicitorimplicitrewardsornegativecontingenciestoproduceconformityandcompliancewithrespecttoadoptivebehaviorModeling,providingstandard,uniformmodelsofcorrectdecisions(c)StructuralequivalenceofindividualandcollectiveactorsStructuralequivalenceofmembersinanetwork是指anactor’sperceptionofconcordancewithothermembersinasocialand/ororganizationalnetwork,particularlyofcomparableeconomicandsocialstatus這一因素modulatesadoptionofinnovationsbecauseitaffectshomogeneityofadopters’behaviors個(gè)人的結(jié)構(gòu)對等決定因素Forindividuals,structuralequivalenceisdeterminedby(a)demographicfactorssuchassex,age,race,ethnicity,maritalstatus,andeducation(b)socialindicatorslikeeducationandoccupation(c)culture,suchassimilarityoflanguage,culturaltradition,religion,self-identity,values,andnorms集體的結(jié)構(gòu)對等決定因素(a)economicfactors—levelofwealthoreconomicsystem(b)culturalfactorssuchashistoricalbackground(c)behavioralfactors,e.g.,similaritiesofactionorstrategy結(jié)構(gòu)對等在創(chuàng)新采納上的解釋力Abbott&DeViney(1992)demonstratedthatthestructuralequivalencebetweenstatescontributedmorethantwiceasmuchasallotherselectedvariablestothepredictabilityofadoptionofwelfarepolicyStructuralequivalencemayfacilitateadoptionbyactivatingactorcompetition(d)Socialdensity（社會濃度/密度）Socialdensityreferstothedensityofexistingadoptionswithinanorganization,wherethegreaterthedensityofadopters,thelesstheperceivedriskofadoptingbynon-adoptersHowever,asHannan&Freeman(1987)argued,thecumulativenumberofadoptionswithinanorganization,orwithinaunitofanorganization,promotesnewadoptionsuptoacriticalpointofexhaustionofresources,afterwhichtheadoptionratedecreases(Hannan&Freeman1987)創(chuàng)新者特征之六：personalcharacteristics心理強(qiáng)勢：psychologicalstrengthPsychologicallystrongactorsselectthemostimportantinnovationsfromtheabundanceofinformationcoveredbythemedia,rapidlyadoptthoseinnovations,andusingtheirownsocialnetworks,createapublicagendathatsignificantlypromotesadoption個(gè)人特征的影響因素：社會文化/例如美國文化與日本文化的差異11.4環(huán)境情境Environmentalcontext(a)geographicsettings(b)societalculture(c)politicalconditions(d)globalizationanduniformity(a)geographicsettings地理因素GeographicalsettingsaffectadoptionbyinfluencingtheapplicabilityoftheinnovationtotheecologicalinfrastructuresofthepotentialadopterClimateWeathersoilconditionsandbyexertingspatialeffectsofgeographicalproximity：anautomaticspreadofinnovationsbetweenindividualactorswhoareinclosegeographicalcontiguity,suchaswithinruralorurbancommunitiesorcountieslocatedwithinthesamegeographicalregionb)societalculture社會文化信仰體系Beliefsystems(values,norms,language,religion,ideologies)(innovationsconflictingwithculturalnormsareadoptedonlybyarelativelysmallpercentageofindividualactorswhoarepotentialadopters)文化傳統(tǒng)主義culturaltraditionalism(socialinertiainadoptingnewpracticesandideas,adverselyaffectingacountry’sadoptionoftechnologicaldevelopmentsandextendingthetimebet