2020年保險產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈分析報告

2020年保險產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈分析報告2020年4月

摘要從負債端看，負債端整體處于恢復(fù)周期，結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化或已至邊界，NBV增長將更依賴規(guī)模提速。2019年保障型產(chǎn)品增速略有放緩但增長仍較為穩(wěn)健，儲蓄型業(yè)務(wù)略有回暖，于開門紅準(zhǔn)備較早+轉(zhuǎn)型效果初顯，代理人量質(zhì)提升下新單增速優(yōu)于同業(yè)；平安代理人產(chǎn)能提升新單降幅收窄；太保轉(zhuǎn)型+競爭加劇下代理人量質(zhì)下滑；新華代理人高速增加+渠道+險企個險+期繳+將成為NBV增長主基調(diào)。而新單規(guī)模增長方面，我們看好儲蓄年金類業(yè)務(wù)的弱復(fù)蘇。從資產(chǎn)端看，2019+長投策略更受青睞。（投資凈收益+公允價值變動損益）增速較快，凈/總投資收益率分別為4.6%-5.3%/4.9%-6.9%，相比去年同期，凈投資收益率整體企穩(wěn)，總投資收益率增加0.3-3.2pct2019配資產(chǎn)負債久期。展望20201影響，恢復(fù)正常增長節(jié)奏尚需要一定時間。2）持續(xù)關(guān)注低利率下行帶來的影響：目前險貼現(xiàn)率-50BP情況下，EV降幅3%-6%，目前的估值已有充分反映。3）重視股基資產(chǎn)彈性及市場β機會：上市險企配置股基資產(chǎn)占比雖然并不高，但利潤對權(quán)益市場波動的敏感性較強，需要重視保險公司的市場β彈性機會。目前板塊估值處于歷史估值底部EV15%-20%于負債端增速反彈的估值修復(fù)和β行情，持續(xù)推薦。5/35核心數(shù)據(jù)解讀2019年上市險企年報已經(jīng)披露完畢，主要的核心數(shù)據(jù)概括為：權(quán)益市場向好下投資收益增速較好，疊加稅收政策調(diào)整返還2018年稅費，準(zhǔn)備金略有增提下仍實現(xiàn)利潤高增行業(yè)處于恢復(fù)周期，總保費收入、EV增長平穩(wěn)。2019年權(quán)益市場向好，5家上市險企合計實現(xiàn)投資收益5,556.7億元，同比+51.6%。從數(shù)據(jù)來看，國壽、平安、太保、新華、人保分別實現(xiàn)投資收益1,769.0、2,215.8685.6、383.8、502.5億元，同比分別增長71.3%、64.3%、33.6%、14.8%、14.9%，其中，各家聯(lián)營及合營企業(yè)投資收2018年度匯算清繳分別為51.54104.53、48.0017.8547.055家上市險企合計提取責(zé)任準(zhǔn)備金8,392.3億元，同比+67.0%，準(zhǔn)備金增提下利潤較半年報略有放緩，但仍實現(xiàn)高增長，國壽、平安、太保、新華、人保凈利潤分別大增411.5%、39.1%、54.0%、83.8%、66.6%。2019NBV增速持續(xù)分化。國壽、平安、太保、新華、人保NBV同比分別變動+18.6%+5.1%-9.3%-19.9%+7.9%4.63.60.9pct值率大幅下行，導(dǎo)致NBV增速下滑。各公司負債端分化主要原因為業(yè)務(wù)節(jié)奏及戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃不同。保費收入5,670.9、7,950.6、3,475.21,381.3、5,552.7億元，同比分別增長5.8%、10.5%8.0%13.0%18.5%23.5%18.2%、18.4%26.1%。表：公司經(jīng)營情況概覽（單位：億元，%）中國人壽2018中國平安2018中國太保單位：億元新單保費保費收入投資收益責(zé)任準(zhǔn)備金計提資產(chǎn)減值歸屬凈利潤基本EPS凈資產(chǎn)20191,812.95,670.91,769.03,351.280.6同比5.9%20191,762.47,950.62,215.82,870.377.4同比-1.3%10.5%64.3%50.3%30.2%39.1%39.7%21.0%19.8%23.5%5.1%2019475.93,475.2685.61,227.824.52018537.03,219.0513.11,050.8同比8.0%5,358.31,032.51,917.282.11,785.17,195.61,348.51,909.959.45.8%71.3%74.8%-1.8%425.6%26.8%18.5%18.5%18.6%+4.6pct33.6%16.8%122.7%54.0%53.8%19.3%17.8%18.2%-9.3%-0.3pct582.91,494.18.41,074.06.0277.43.1180.22.02.10.44,037.69,420.99,420.9587.03,183.77,950.57,950.5495.16,731.612,005.37,574.9759.55,565.110,024.66,132.2722.91,784.33,959.93,055.2246.043.3%1,495.83,361.42,584.3271.243.7%EV壽險NBV新業(yè)務(wù)價值率32.9%28.3%47.3%43.7%+3.6pct6/35新華保險2018中國人保2018合計單位：億元新單保費保費收入投資收益責(zé)任準(zhǔn)備金計提資產(chǎn)減值歸屬凈利潤基本EPS凈資產(chǎn)2019323.11,381.3383.8537.320.4同比22.3%13.0%14.8%100.9%13.3%83.8%83.9%28.8%18.4%18.4%-19.9%-17.6pct2019542.15,552.7502.5405.720.7同比-0.2%14.9%-20194,916.424,030.75,556.78,392.3223.620184,841.121,981.73,665.65,024.6190.6同比1.6%9.3%51.6%67.0%17.3%72.2%-264.31,222.9334.2267.518.0543.34,986.1437.3(120.8)20.13.0%66.6%59.4%20.1%-145.64.779.2224.00.5134.50.32,724.0-1,581.9-2.5844.52,050.42,050.497.8655.91,731.51,731.5122.147.9%1,831.3-1,524.7-15,229.427,436.522,992.31,752.1-12,425.123,068.019,104.91,668.7-22.6%18.9%20.3%5.0%-EV壽險890.961.9706.357.426.1%7.9%+0.9pctNBV新業(yè)務(wù)價值率30.3%10.6%Wind：除太保采用首年年化保費口徑外，新業(yè)務(wù)價值率均采用首年2EV4：投資收益為投資凈收益+公允價值變動+56EVEV為相比年初增速，以下同；：平安資產(chǎn)減值損失為信用減值損失+其他資產(chǎn)減值損失，并剔除銀行數(shù)值?？偨Y(jié)20192019年行業(yè)整體+渠道+期限”結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整優(yōu)化或已達到一個高點，預(yù)計價值率承壓下后續(xù)規(guī)模增長將成為NBV增長主基調(diào)。資產(chǎn)端權(quán)益彈性顯著，2019年股基資產(chǎn)高收益率推動利潤高增長，新會計準(zhǔn)則的匹配資產(chǎn)負債久期。負債端：新單仍有承壓，負債端持續(xù)分化2019+車險保費增長較慢但綜合成本率可控，同時非車業(yè)務(wù)開始發(fā)力，增長迅速且盈利較好，結(jié)構(gòu)持續(xù)優(yōu)化。行業(yè)保費增速逐步回暖，人身險集中度略有下行2019年，以儲蓄年金為代表的壽險增速逐步回暖，以重疾為代表的健康險增速穩(wěn)定。2017年以前，壽險增速保持在20%以上，2018年受到號文和外部理財環(huán)境變化的影響下降至個位數(shù)，2019年增速逐步回暖至10%左右的增長；在壽險增速放緩的同時，健康險保持了30%左右的穩(wěn)定增長。7/352018年初的56%降低至2019年底的48%，集中度下降約8個百分點；從增速來看2019年非上市公司增速在20%7%品IRR更高。表：行業(yè)壽險保費增速改善，健康險增速穩(wěn)健（單位：億元，）行業(yè)壽險保費5,079行業(yè)健康險保費532行業(yè)壽險保費增速-26.0%-24.7%-18.3%-16.1%-14.5%-12.2%-9.3%行業(yè)健康險保費增速-17.0%-18.2%-2.4%行業(yè)調(diào)整后壽險保費5,064行業(yè)調(diào)整后健康險保費532行業(yè)調(diào)整后壽險保費增速-15.7%-9.2%-3.4%-2.2%-1.8%-0.6%-0.6%0.6%行業(yè)調(diào)整后健康險保費增速15.3%17.1%25.0%30.5%30.1%33.8%34.1%33.8%34.5%35.3%35.0%35.1%49.9%44.4%39.1%34.6%33.4%31.7%31.1%31.5%30.9%30.3%29.8%29.7%17.9%指標(biāo)名稱2018-012018-022018-032018-042018-052018-062018-072018-082018-092018-102018-122019-012019-022019-032019-042019-052019-062019-072019-082019-092019-102019-122020-016,9028756,8478759,5011,5622,0292,4493,0193,3903,7964,3374,7145,0595,4487989,4281,5612,0282,4483,0183,3883,7954,3355,0565,44479810,56713,36114,38015,83317,49118,60019,66420,7236,2726.0%10,46913,23814,23915,66617,31418,41619,47020,5276,2729.3%15.4%17.4%18.8%21.0%22.7%23.2%24.1%49.9%44.3%39.1%34.6%33.3%31.7%31.1%31.5%30.9%30.3%29.8%29.7%17.9%-7.7%1.6%-6.1%2.8%-4.7%3.8%-3.4%4.9%23.5%19.7%14.3%13.6%12.9%12.5%12.2%10.7%10.1%9.5%23.9%20.6%15.2%14.6%14.0%13.5%13.3%10.4%9.9%8,2611,2632,1722,7323,2653,9764,4444,9915,6776,1416,5647,0669418,2601,2632,1712,7313,2643,9754,4434,9895,6756,1396,5627,06494110,86312,00513,25215,02716,13617,52819,25420,36021,43422,7546,68710,86112,00113,24815,02116,12817,51819,23820,33421,39222,7036,6639.0%9.8%10.6%6.2%6.6%Wind，銀保監(jiān)會，XXX市場部；調(diào)整后壽險保費為剔除安邦人壽保費收入、調(diào)整后健康險保費為剔除和諧健康保費收入表：2018-2019年上市險企市場份額大幅下行（單位：）四家險企增速-0.8%其他險企增速-43.2%四家險企集中度55.5%調(diào)整后其他險企增速-24.4%調(diào)整后四家險企集中度2018-012018-022018-0354.6%49.8%49.3%0.7%-39.6%50.5%-12.5%8.8%-33.0%50.4%-6.9%8/352018-042018-052018-062018-072018-082018-092018-102018-122019-012019-022019-032019-042019-052019-062019-072019-082019-092019-102019-122020-0112.2%12.8%12.1%9.0%-29.6%-26.9%-23.0%-21.3%-18.1%-15.1%-12.7%-10.4%-8.3%50.6%50.6%50.9%50.9%50.6%50.5%50.3%50.0%49.8%50.2%46.6%47.0%46.7%46.7%47.2%47.4%47.6%47.8%18.4%17.1%17.5%6.1%-4.8%-3.8%-1.3%-0.7%1.3%49.4%49.3%49.6%49.5%49.2%49.1%48.9%48.5%48.3%48.7%45.2%45.2%44.8%44.8%45.3%45.4%45.6%45.8%2019-102019-122020-013.4%5.3%7.1%8.9%39.8%31.1%25.2%25.3%24.9%23.9%23.3%20.8%19.5%47.8%47.8%47.7%50.7%42.8%34.6%28.3%28.6%28.1%26.8%26.3%24.0%22.5%52.2%52.2%52.3%49.3%7.1%6.5%6.8%7.0%7.1%7.2%7.1%7.3%8.1%8.6%Wind，銀保監(jiān)會，XXX市場部；此處四家險企包括國壽、平安、太保、新華，調(diào)整主要是剔除安邦人壽、和諧健康和安邦養(yǎng)老保費產(chǎn)險：車險受新車銷量影響增速放緩，非車險高速增長。2019年，汽車銷量、乘用車銷量增速持續(xù)放緩背景下，上市險企車險增速在2%-7%區(qū)間內(nèi)，而非車險仍保持著17%-33%的高增速，推動產(chǎn)險增速較為穩(wěn)健。圖：行業(yè)財險單月保費及同比增速（單位：億元，）圖：2019年上市險企車險、非車險增速（單位：）33.3%31.1%16.6%6.9%6.0%1.6%0Wind，銀保監(jiān)會，XXX市場部Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部9/35報行合一監(jiān)管加強下財險行業(yè)集中度穩(wěn)中有升。2019年初以來，隨著針對報行合一的服務(wù)保費增速較快。2019年財險行業(yè)保費上市險企/前五公司的市占率分別為64.1%、73.8%，相比去年同期增加0.1、0.3pct，集中度穩(wěn)中有升。圖：前五公司累計單月財險保費市占率（單位：）圖：上市險企累計單月財險保費市占率（單位：）Wind，銀保監(jiān)會，XXX市場部Wind，銀保監(jiān)會，XXX市場部；主要為人保、平安、太保人身險：負債端整體承壓，靜待儲蓄年金弱復(fù)蘇2019負債端整體仍有承壓。上市險企“險種+渠道+期限”結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整優(yōu)化或已達到一個高點：12險期繳保費占個險新單比例均超過70%325%及戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃不同下新單增速分化：國壽受益于開門紅準(zhǔn)備較早+轉(zhuǎn)型效果初顯，代理人量質(zhì)提升下新單增速優(yōu)于同業(yè)；平安代理人產(chǎn)能提升新單降幅收窄；太保轉(zhuǎn)型+競爭加劇下代理人量質(zhì)下滑；新華代理人高速增加下產(chǎn)能明顯下滑。結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化或已至邊界，關(guān)注規(guī)模增長方向12019保費收入分別實現(xiàn)999、1,246、396、197、202億元，較去年同期分別變動+9.4%、-4.7%、-15.2%、+1.6%、+58.9%，增速表現(xiàn)持續(xù)分化；從個險新單占新單比例來看，平安、太保因已完成“個險+期繳”的轉(zhuǎn)型，行業(yè)承壓下處于高位的個險新單占比略有1.813.9pct；新華因銷售銀保躉交產(chǎn)品，個險新單占比大幅下滑12.4pct。表：新單保費和續(xù)期保費規(guī)模及占比情況（單位：億元，）中國人壽2018中國平安2018中國太保201820195,6711,81332.0%999同比增長變化5.8%2019同比增長變化7.2%20192,125476同比增長變化5.0%總保費5,35831.9%9131,76228.8%1,24670.7%5,7051,78531.3%1,30773.2%2,024537新單保費5.9%-1.3%新單保費/總保費個險新單22.4%39626.5%4679.4%-4.7%-15.2%-3.8pct個險新單/總新單55.1%53.4%1.8pct-2.5pct83.2%87.0%10/35個險期繳8397925.8%5.8%1,14792.0%4,35471.2%1,24495.2%3,92068.7%-7.8%330425-22.4%10.9%個險期繳/個險新單續(xù)期保費83.9%3,85868.0%86.7%3,64768.1%83.3%1,64977.6%91.0%1,48773.5%續(xù)期保費/總保費新華保險中國人保20191,38132320181,223264同比增長變化13.0%20199812018937同比增長變化4.7%總保費新單保費22.3%542543-0.2%新單保費/總保費個險新單23.4%19721.6%19455.2%20258.0%1271.6%-12.4pct-5.3%58.9%13.9pct16.3%個險新單/總新單個險期繳60.9%15273.3%16037.3%12223.4%105個險期繳/個險新單續(xù)期保費77.1%1,05876.6%82.8%95960.2%43982.2%39410.4%續(xù)期保費/總保費78.4%44.8%42.0%Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部；平安為規(guī)模保費口徑2、個險期繳保費占比、十年期及以上期繳保費占比均較高，續(xù)期保費增速發(fā)力。除人570%為55.5%、54.1%；受過往期繳保費增長的推動，續(xù)期保費表現(xiàn)良好。圖：十年期及以上期繳保費占期繳保費比例（單位：）70%60.8%60%50%40%30%20%10%55.5%54.1%39.9%34.7%26.6%新華保險中國人壽2018中國人保2019Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部3、保障型產(chǎn)品新單增速平穩(wěn)，占比仍處較高位置。國壽、新華健康險保費增速回暖，同比分別+30.6%+3.3%，而平安長期保障型產(chǎn)品新單同比-7.8%市險企健康險/長期保障型新單保費占總新單保費的比重超過29%，占比較高。/35圖：健康險長期保障型新單保費增速（單位：）圖：健康險長期保障型新單保費占總新單比（單位：）30.6%3.3%-7.8%Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部；其中平安為長期保障型產(chǎn)品Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部；其中平安為長期保障型產(chǎn)品分別為1.9%、1.4%、1.1%、1.8%，相比年中略有提升，主要原因為權(quán)益市場向好下經(jīng)營。圖：上市險企退保率較低（單位：）18%16%14%12%10%20142015中國平安20162017中國太保20182019H2019中國人壽新華保險中國人保Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部渠道弱復(fù)蘇。分紅險收益率相對平穩(wěn)，當(dāng)前分紅儲蓄類業(yè)務(wù)定價利率預(yù)期在2.5%-3.0%，分紅率在1.2%-1.4%4.0%-4.4%3.5%-4.5%2019保費同比分別增加2.5%24.4%10.8%增長和銀保渠道的持續(xù)復(fù)蘇。12/35圖：2011-2019年銀行理財收益率對比（單位：）圖：分紅險分紅率概況（單位：）1Wind,B萬能險的收益率Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部表：銀保渠道保費情況（單位：百萬元，）中國人壽中國平安201970,06025,4371,617201876,84133,0569,81723,239新華保險2018同比-8.8%-23.0%-83.5%2.5%201918,3686,4981,2085,290201815,5015,500同比銀保渠道保費銀保新單18.5%18.1%-3.2%24.4%銀保躉交1,248銀保期繳23,8204,252中國人保2018201927,28610,2506,0844,166同比31.2%201939,44427,10420,2856,819同比銀保渠道保費銀保新單20,7934,7503647,20334,61828,4666,152-16.4%-21.7%-28.7%10.8%16800.0%銀保躉交銀保期繳4,714Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部；國壽、人保躉交保費中包括短期險業(yè)務(wù)業(yè)務(wù)節(jié)奏及戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃不同下負債端增速分化-17.7%-6.7%+12.1%、+37.0%+59.3%-1.7pct月均營銷員比重分別-4.3-1.1pct，新華月均合格率-5.7pct；保單件數(shù)方面，平安件均新單數(shù)量+13.1%-7.9%平安、太保、新華、人保同比分別+8.2%、+3.4%、-9.0%、-22.5%、+2.4%。可見，收入略有提升，預(yù)計后續(xù)代理人穩(wěn)定性將提升；太保轉(zhuǎn)型+競爭加劇下，代理人量質(zhì)略2.013/35產(chǎn)能情況。表：上市險企代理人主要數(shù)據(jù)中國人壽2016201720182019161.305,457.934.9%43.8%103.6057.702019年同比增速變動個險渠道代理人（萬人）代理人產(chǎn)能（元／人均每月）月均有效銷售人力同比增速（%）月均銷售特定保障型產(chǎn)品人力同比增速（%）收展隊伍（萬人）149.505,545.0157.805,428.0143.905,046.312.1%8.2%--0.3%103.3040.60營銷隊伍（萬人）42.1%中國平安20167,821.02017138.608,373.0126.0048,243.065.5%1.22201820192019年同比增速變動-17.7%個人壽險銷售代理人數(shù)量（萬人）代理人首年規(guī)模保費（元／人均每月）月均代理人數(shù)量（萬人）代理人人均新業(yè)務(wù)價值（元人均每年）代理人活動率（%）141.747,771.30132.0048,789.062.6%1.228,037.71120.0056,791.060.9%1.383.4%-9.1%16.4%-1.7pct代理人件均新單數(shù)量（件／人均每月）月均收入（元／人均每月）中國太保1.206,016201613.1%6,2506,2946,3090.2%2017201820192019年同比增速變動-6.7%月均保險營銷員（萬人）保險營銷員每月人均首年保險業(yè)務(wù)收入（元）保險營銷員每月人均首年傭金收入（元）人）月均健康人力（萬人）65.305,084.0987.01.7287.4084.7079.004,631.01,058.01.644,212.0941.0-9.0%1,012.01.681.51-7.9%24.8013.1028.4%15.0%201731.2025.70-17.6%月均績優(yōu)人力（萬人）14.9013.00-12.8%月均健康人力占比（%）月均績優(yōu)人力占比（%）新華保險36.8%17.6%201832.5%16.5%2019-4.3pct-1.1pct201632.802019年同比增速變動37.0%個險渠道規(guī)模人力（萬人）月均人均綜合產(chǎn)能（元／人均每月）月均合格人力（萬人）34.805,801.037.0050.705,798.04,372.012.853,387.013.30-22.5%3.5%月均合格率（%）38.8%201833.1%2019-5.7pct人保壽險201618.93201725.592019年同比增速變動59.3%個險代理人數(shù)量（萬人）代理人產(chǎn)能（元／人均每月）24.565,323.04,728.02,679.02,742.02.4%Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部；代理人產(chǎn)能標(biāo)灰數(shù)據(jù)為新單保費和代理人計算值，其余為公司財產(chǎn)險：成本率企穩(wěn)，非車發(fā)展延續(xù)良好勢頭14/35車商渠道、代理渠道占比較高，交叉銷售渠道占比略有下滑。2019年上市險企財險渠道結(jié)構(gòu)中，平安車商渠道占比達到24.2%，占比整體企穩(wěn)；商車費改下渠道競爭激烈，對產(chǎn)品服務(wù)要求提高，代理人渠道占比較高；交叉銷售占比較2018年略有下滑，但占比仍較高，公司協(xié)同能力助力財險保費增長。表：上市財險渠道結(jié)構(gòu)（單位：）人保財險保費渠道結(jié)構(gòu)代理渠道201457.5%30.7%20.6%6.2%201557.9%30.5%18.8%8.6%201666.6%35.1%18.3%13.3%28.3%5.0%201770.6%35.7%18.4%16.5%23.7%5.7%2018H64.8%31.9%12.4%20.4%27.6%7.6%201871.4%33.6%13.9%24.0%20.6%7.9%2019H61.7%28.9%10.6%22.3%30.2%8.1%201969.0%32.3%25.2%22.8%8.2%個人代理兼業(yè)代理專業(yè)代理直銷渠道37.0%5.5%36.9%5.2%保險經(jīng)紀渠道平安財險保費渠道結(jié)構(gòu)電話及網(wǎng)絡(luò)交叉銷售201620172018H19.1%22.5%21.7%16.1%9.4%20182019H7.3%201935.5%16.7%23.3%9.6%27.3%18.1%23.4%14.8%10.6%5.8%10.9%19.8%24.0%23.2%15.0%7.1%17.7%16.8%24.2%23.4%10.4%7.6%21.2%23.3%22.3%16.1%9.9%車商渠道代理渠道直銷渠道9.6%其他5.3%Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部20192019年累計保費增速為9.5%12.7%為98.9%、96.4%、98.3%，同比分別變動+0.4、+0.4、-0.1pct，財險綜合成本率的抬升主要為非車險帶來，臺風(fēng)等自然災(zāi)害、豬瘟及社會信用風(fēng)險提升是影響的主要因素。圖：上市險企產(chǎn)險累計保費增速（單位：）圖：上市險企綜合成本率（單位：%）中國平安中國太保中國財險中國太平Wind，銀保監(jiān)會，XXX市場部Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部分拆業(yè)務(wù)看，車險增速略有承壓，綜合成本率可控。受商車費改影響，2019年上市險企車險增速略有放緩，人保、平安、太保車險增速分別為1.6%、6.9%、6.0%，同時，96.7%97.2%97.9%15/35面存有利影響，但預(yù)計車險增速下滑影響更顯著。表：上市險企車險保費及同比增速（單位：億元，）保費收入人保財險平安財險太保財險同比增速人保財險平安財險太保財險20162,258.81,486.5761.820172,492.31,706.6818.12018H1,224.4847.9438.62018H3.9%20182,589.01,819.2879.820182019H1,274.9924.2461.32019H4.1%20192,629.31,944.9932.220192016201710.6%13.4%1.6%10.3%14.8%7.4%3.9%1.6%5.5%6.6%9.0%6.9%10.1%7.5%5.2%6.0%Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部；其中平安為毛保費收入表：上市險企車險綜合成本率（單位：%）車險綜合成本率人保財險2017H96.0%97.1%98.6%2017H59.1%59.0%61.1%2017H36.9%38.1%37.5%201796.4%97.5%98.7%20172018H96.7%97.2%98.0%2018H58.8%57.1%59.4%2018H37.9%40.1%38.6%20182019H201996.7%97.2%97.9%201998.4%97.4%98.3%201898.1%97.7%98.4%2019H56.1%58.9%59.9%2019H42.0%38.8%38.5%平安財險太保財險車險賠付率人保財險58.9%56.3%61.4%201756.8%53.9%56.8%201857.1%57.2%60.8%2019平安財險太保財險車險費用率人保財險37.5%41.2%37.3%41.6%43.5%41.5%39.6%40.0%37.1%平安財險太保財險Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部；其中人保車險賠付率以賠款支出/保費收入估算，車險費用率以車險成本率、車險賠付率差值進行計算，平安、太保為披露值15%格局和專業(yè)性等原因或具有更低的綜合成本率。2019年受“利奇馬”等自然災(zāi)害影響成本率略有上行，但整體盈利來看，非車險表現(xiàn)仍優(yōu)于車險。表：上市險企非車險保費增速（單位：）2016-3.1%19.3%20170.5%2018H10.5%33.4%20186.3%2019H2019人保財險企業(yè)財產(chǎn)險責(zé)任險31.4%13.1%25.4%22.7%27.9%16/3530.8%7.8%13.1%201737.0%21.4%32.7%2018H69.8%43.9%8.6%32.0%19.6%21.0%201841.0%2.6%42.5%意外傷害及健康險貨運險26.2%-7.2%3.1%20162.8%15.2%201917.9%2019H-5.6%48.4%8.5%農(nóng)險平安財險保證保險責(zé)任保險企業(yè)財產(chǎn)保險意外傷害保險太保財險企財險-39.9%25.8%-0.7%21.7%2016144.3%21.3%7.8%35.5%201766.1%34.6%8.9%5.1%41.6%39.5%201952.4%2018H32.0%63.6%219.8%49.5%201844.6%2019H23.0%48.3%--6.1%1.5%65.2%--5.1%8.7%43.6%-8.1%17.1%15.3%40.8%60.0%27.3%54.9%122.8%責(zé)任險農(nóng)險保證險Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部表：上市險企非車險綜合成本率（單位：）人保財險企業(yè)財產(chǎn)險責(zé)任險2017H82.0%92.7%100.9%83.0%93.1%2017H91.5%89.3%91.9%69.7%2017H99.0%94.9%95.3%-2017102.8%95.0%105.0%87.8%92.4%20172018H86.1%93.3%101.5%82.9%88.9%2018H87.5%89.6%98.2%76.2%2018H101.5%94.6%96.4%93.9%2018109.6%94.0%99.5%90.6%95.2%20182019H83.4%95.7%101.5%80.7%94.8%2019H93.2%94.6%90.1%82.9%2019H97.4%92.2%99.8%-2019105.8%99.7%101.8%87.5%97.9%2019意外傷害及健康險貨運險農(nóng)險平安財險88.6%91.2%82.8%78.2%201788.6%89.9%94.4%82.3%201893.6%97.6%83.6%84.3%2019保證保險責(zé)任保險企業(yè)財產(chǎn)保險意外傷害保險太保財險109.2%90.7%96.6%-98.7%94.9%95.0%84.2%96.0%90.7%99.8%95.5%企財險責(zé)任險農(nóng)險保證險Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部資產(chǎn)端：投資收益亮眼，增配股基類資產(chǎn)從資產(chǎn)端來看，2019年權(quán)益市場向好疊加債券利率略有震蕩的背景下，上市險企投資產(chǎn)，穩(wěn)定投資收益，更好的匹配資產(chǎn)負債久期。17/35權(quán)益向好改善投資收益，累計浮盈較好投資收益率提升明顯2019漲跌幅一季度、二季度、三季度、四季度分別為+28.62%、-1.21%、-0.29%、+6.33%（去年同期分別為-3.28%、-9.94%、-2.05%、-12.45%收益+5家上市險企合計實現(xiàn)投資收益5,556.7比大增51.6%，凈/總投資收益率分別為4.6%-5.3%/4.9%-6.9%，相比去年同期，凈投資收益率整體企穩(wěn)，總投資收益率增加0.3-3.2pct。上市險企投資收益的提升主要是公允價值變動損益、價差收入明顯提升，同時對聯(lián)營企業(yè)和合營企業(yè)的收益增速平穩(wěn)。表：投資收益率及資產(chǎn)價差收益率（單位：，）總投資收益率凈投資收益率總投資收益率凈投資收益率價差收益（）價差收益（）20183.28%3.70%4.60%4.60%4.90%20184.64%5.20%4.90%5.00%5.50%20195.23%6.90%5.40%4.90%5.40%20194.61%5.20%4.90%4.80%5.30%中國人壽中國平安中國太保新華保險中國人保-1.36-1.50-0.30-0.40-0.60中國人壽中國平安中國太保新華保險中國人保0.621.700.500.100.10Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部表：上市險企投資收益結(jié)構(gòu)（單位：百萬元，，）中國人壽2018133,017106,42217,7761052019同比增速2018年占比2019年占比占比變化-41.1pct-34.7pct-3.8pct凈投資收益149,10922,8043112.1%9.2%28.3%-70.5%18.3%-129.3%103.4%17.3%0.1%88.2%68.8%13.5%0.0%固定到期類凈投資收益權(quán)益類凈投資收益投資性房地產(chǎn)凈投資收益現(xiàn)金及其他投資收益對聯(lián)營企業(yè)和合營企業(yè)的收益凈額投資資產(chǎn)買賣價差收益公允價值變動損益投資資產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)減值損失總投資收益-0.1pct9698610.9%0.5%-0.4pct7,745-21516-8,148-8,205102,89320189,1591340214,4197,887169,04320197.5%5.4%-2.1pct28.8pct16.4pct12.6pct-20.9%-7.9%7.9%-8.5%--8.0%4.7%64.3%同比增速-100.0%2018年占比-1.7%100.0%2019年占比7.4%中國太保占比變化9.0pct1.6pct出售股票投資凈收益出售基金投資凈收益出售債券投資凈收益買入返售金融資產(chǎn)利息收入債權(quán)型投資利息收入其他固定息投資利息收入-8485,055923-120--0.2%1.3%139282102.9%5.2%13.0%22.5%0.3%0.4%0.1pct3293460.6%0.5%-0.1pct-1.4pct39,1048,81044,20010,79676.2%17.2%64.5%15.7%18/35基金股息收入1,7181,4982,5123351,2132,2882,167494-29.4%52.7%-13.7%47.5%26.7%-3.3%2.9%1.8%3.3%-1.6pct0.4pct-1.7pct0.1pct-5.4pct5.4pct股票股息收入其他股權(quán)型投資收益聯(lián)營及合營企業(yè)投資收益投資凈收益合計公允價值變動損益投資收益合計4.9%3.2%0.7%0.7%53,477-2,16851,309201867,762801104.2%-4.2%98.8%1.2%68,56320199833.6%同比增速-29.0%20.8%4.4%-10.2%13.5%3.3%-100.0%2018年占比0.4%100.0%2019年占比0.3%新華保險占比變化-0.2pct0.4pct現(xiàn)金及現(xiàn)金等價物利息收入定期存款利息收入債權(quán)型投資利息收入股權(quán)型投資分紅收入其他投資資產(chǎn)利息收入凈投資收益1382,61323,8566,2351,48634,328-9323,1575,6021,68635,454-2278.3%8.7%75.5%19.7%4.7%68.5%15.4%4.6%-7.0pct-4.3pct-0.1pct2.3pct8.5pct0.2pct108.7%-3.0%97.6%-0.6%7.3%投資資產(chǎn)買賣價差收益公允價值變動損失投資資產(chǎn)減值損失聯(lián)營企業(yè)權(quán)益法確認損益總投資收益-3792,647-2,032502--1.2%-1,835404--5.8%-5.6%1.4%24.3%15.1%同比增速-0.7%4.0%4.0%-0.4%32.3%-1.3%0.1pct31,586201836,3442019907100.0%2018年占比2.2%100.0%2019年占比1.8%中國人保占比變化3.0pct現(xiàn)金及現(xiàn)金等價物固定收益投資91329,60328,97756430,78630,14256270.4%68.9%1.3%62.6%61.3%1.1%-7.8pct-7.6pct-0.2pct0.0pct利息收入處置金融工具損益公允價值變動損益公允價值計量的各類基金及股票投資股息和分紅收入處置金融工具損益公允價值變動損益減值62820.1%0.2%-2,0003,626-2,447-7554,4703,6672,099564-4.8%9.1%13.8pct-1.2pct10.1pct2.9pct2.0pct1.1%-8.6%7.5%-5.8%4.3%--1.8%1.1%-2,42413,55112,54042,0672018-1,86013,03712,566471--5.8%-3.8%26.5%25.5%1.0%其他投資-3.8%0.2%-53.4%17.0%同比增速32.2%29.8%2.4%-5.7pct-4.3pct-1.4pct對聯(lián)營及合營企業(yè)的投資收入其他損益總投資收益49,2002019100.0%2018年占比100.0%2019年占比中國平安占比變化非銀行業(yè)務(wù)利息：以攤余成本計量的金融資產(chǎn)其他債權(quán)投資80,4188,12889,92410,06723.9%49.3%5.0%50.7%5.7%1.4pct0.7pct凈投資收益以公允價值計量且其變動計入當(dāng)期損益的金融資產(chǎn)38,60935,822-7.2%23.7%20.2%-3.5pct19/35其他權(quán)益工具投資已實現(xiàn)收益╱（損失）以公允價值計量且其變動計入當(dāng)期損益的金融資產(chǎn)10,2913,06812,8082,24324.5%6.3%1.9%7.2%1.3%0.9pct-26.9%-0.6pct其他債權(quán)投資-1995617245--0.1%0.0%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.5%0.2pct0.0pct-0.1pct以攤余成本計量的金融資產(chǎn)衍生金融工具-19.6%-2.0%958939以公允價值計量且其變動計入其他綜合收益發(fā)放貸款及墊款價差收益貴金屬買賣收益8351,18241.6%0.5%0.7%0.2pct57370136122.3%-84.5%28.5%8.8%0.4%1.4%0.4%0.2%0.0pct-1.2pct2.0pct長期股權(quán)投資2,324占聯(lián)營企業(yè)和合營企業(yè)的凈收益投資收益合計18,074163,13523,224177,488100.0%13.1%100.0%Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部累計浮盈大幅增加2019年累計浮盈大幅提升，利潤儲備較好。2019其他綜合收益，2019年，利率震蕩背景下，國壽、太保、新華的債券型可供出售金融資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)入其他綜合收益的金額分別為-5.05、+14.30、+12.47億元，同時因權(quán)益市場向654.70223.35175.002019291.6134.6、129.539.67.22%2.00%7.26%4.69%6.43%，待釋放利潤儲備較好。表：利潤表其他綜合收益規(guī)模（單位：億元，）利潤表其他綜合收益中國人壽2016-257.76-75.67-46.74-27.41-42.7920162017-79.26218.81-24.966.762018H-22.491.302018-20.2521.3712.82-43.88-19.0120182019H202.17-8.142019349.1292.32103.4667.512019中國平安中國太保3.6659.4828.8599.572019H3,6846,2531,625766新華保險-21.04-5.47中國人保-43.082017歸屬凈資產(chǎn)中國人壽2018H3,2305,1611,3896583,0363,8341,3185913,2094,7341,3756373,1845,5651,4966564,0386,7321,784845中國平安中國太保新華保險中國人保1,25520161,36920171,4452018H-0.70%0.03%1,52520181,7192019H5.49%-0.13%1,8312019占歸屬凈資產(chǎn)比重中國人壽-8.49%-1.97%-2.47%4.62%-0.64%0.38%8.65%1.37%中國平安20/35中國太保新華保險中國人保-3.55%-4.64%-3.41%-1.82%1.06%-3.15%0.26%-3.20%-0.38%0.86%-6.69%-1.25%3.66%3.77%5.79%5.80%7.99%8.58%Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部表：可供出售資產(chǎn)中累計計入其他綜合損益（單位：百萬元）可供出售資產(chǎn)中累計計入其他綜合損益相比年初變化中國人壽201613,1771512017-9,8778,16020172018H785201817314-24,07320182019H1400816,7372019H3,492201916,80941,39720192019H2019-505債權(quán)型投資股權(quán)型投資中國太保-3,30640,8102019H-1,64514,1872019H-129-4,8492018H-4,4538,5852018H47965,47020192016-102債權(quán)型投資股權(quán)型投資新華保險-12,14413,39520175,1371,37220186,56723,70720191,43022,33520197,41520161,5811,51915,5592019H1836債權(quán)型投資股權(quán)型投資-87519653,2126,6151,24717,5005,830-2,534-10,885-1,8099,076Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部表：權(quán)益表其他綜合收益規(guī)模（單位：億元，）資產(chǎn)負債表其他綜合收益中國人壽201643.72017H39.920172018H20182019H2019-35.4401.515.1-58.031.4-56.149.4145.837.3291.6134.6129.539.6中國平安185.639.6282.935.5中國太保18.727.986.2新華保險9.217.516.0-5.1-27.90.9中國人保47.841.215.510.3-0.474.82019占歸屬凈資產(chǎn)比重中國人壽20161.44%4.84%3.01%1.56%3.81%2017H1.29%6.64%2.70%2.83%3.12%20172018H-1.79%0.61%1.35%-0.77%0.71%20182019H3.96%0.60%5.30%0.12%4.35%-1.10%8.48%1.09%2.51%1.13%-1.76%0.89%1.87%-4.26%-0.03%7.22%2.00%7.26%4.69%6.43%中國平安中國太保新華保險中國人保Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部大類資產(chǎn)配置穩(wěn)健，增配股基資產(chǎn)從大類資產(chǎn)配置來看，201912.07%9.53%12.17%，較2018年底分別增加1.24、0.63、2.70、1.52、0.48pct，定存占比在7%-15%左右，債券類資產(chǎn)配置占比在32%-47%左右，資產(chǎn)配置較為穩(wěn)健。21/35表：2017-2019大類資產(chǎn)配置情況（單位：億元，）中國人壽定存20174,494.02,747.06,805.625,932.5201720185,593.413,098.22,849.97,499.829,041.3201820195,352.614,105.53,950.712,340.535,749.32019較年初-0.50%3.29%2017占比17.33%45.83%10.59%26.24%100.00%2017占比6.66%2018占比19.26%45.10%9.81%2019占比14.97%39.46%34.52%100.00%2019占比6.57%債券股基25.41%38.54%13.83%較年初5.32%其他25.82%100.00%2018占比7.50%合計中國平安定存1,630.710,716.93,176.78,970.424,494.720172,012.512,707.73,196.28,917.726,834.020182,109.315,040.63,871.532,088.42019債券3.73%43.75%12.97%36.62%100.00%2017占比9.62%47.36%33.23%100.00%2018占比10.41%46.28%6.82%46.87%12.07%34.49%100.00%2019占比10.41%42.64%9.53%股基16.93%18.07%10.19%較年初16.21%4.07%其他合計中國太保定存1,039.95,210.6959.91,284.05,707.9841.31,477.66,051.51,351.914,192.62019債券48.19%8.88%股基35.97%10.84%9.98%其他3,602.410,812.820174,499.112,332.2201833.32%100.00%2017占比6.12%36.48%100.00%2018占比9.24%37.43%100.00%2019占比7.63%合計新華保險定存較年初1.55%418.1646.9640.4債券2,637.8899.32,752.1745.43,580.61,021.93,151.58,394.5201922.90%3.44%38.60%13.16%42.13%100.00%2017占比8.29%39.33%10.65%40.78%100.00%2018占比32.36%10.84%45.78%100.00%42.65%12.17%37.54%100.00%2019占比8.89%股基其他2,879.06,834.220172,853.86,998.320182.39%合計10.49%較年初-19.21%10.81%0.48%中國人保定存707.1986.5870.1債券2,743.6928.72,897.4971.13,174.51,108.04,629.59,782.132.15%10.88%48.68%100.00%32.45%47.33%100.00%股基其他4,154.68,534.04,099.78,954.65.14%合計3.79%Wind,XXX市場部非標(biāo)資產(chǎn)配置增速較好。2019年，國壽、平安、太保、新華、人保非標(biāo)固收資產(chǎn)投資相比年初分別變動+18.15%-2.73%+23.16%+4.22%+4.84%資產(chǎn)的名義投資收益率達到5.75%上市險企非標(biāo)資產(chǎn)的安全性較好，AAA占比超過90%。表：上市險企非標(biāo)資產(chǎn)配置結(jié)構(gòu)（單位：億元，）非標(biāo)固收國壽20172018H3,172.13,624.820182019H3,776.84,458.120192019年同比增速3,017.63,359.33,512.84,421.64,150.24,300.918.15%-2.73%平安22/35太保1,825.11,996.92,086.120172,221.41,903.22,028.92018H375.3858.1415.4-2,377.31,846.92,065.020182,844.21,831.92,015.42019H376.8360.44.32,927.81,924.82,164.92019326.4381.97.323.16%4.22%4.84%新華人保非標(biāo)權(quán)益國壽2019年同比增速-0.65%403.3868.9205.8414.4-328.5321.871.8平安18.66%-89.85%31.91%-太保新華415.2-451.2-547.6-人保Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部表：平安非標(biāo)資產(chǎn)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)（單位：，年）2019投資占比名義投資收益率期限（年）剩余到期期限（年）基建33.512.52.95.755.855.345.855.655.745.98.699.877.938.167.855.464.698.136.566.565.195.743.915.9高速公路電力基建設(shè)施及園區(qū)開發(fā)8.7其他（水務(wù)、環(huán)保、鐵路投資等）9.44.212.712.053.073.68非銀金融36.318.31.5不動產(chǎn)煤炭開采5.9其他10.41005.485.75合計Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部表：上市險企非標(biāo)資產(chǎn)評級情況（單位：）2017年AAA95.0%91.0%95.4%AAAAA中國平安中國太保新華保險2018年5.0%2.0%8.7%3.0%1.6%AA中國平安中國太保新華保險2019年98.0%95.1%95.2%AAA3.2%4.7%1.7%AA中國平安中國太保新華保險99.0%94.4%94.8%1.0%5.5%5.2%Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部23/35高分紅高股息長投策略高分紅高股息策略有利于降低利潤波動同時抬升投資收益，長投策略有利于拉長久期。波動將大幅提升?？紤]資產(chǎn)價格波動直接影響利潤的FVTPL、僅允許股息分紅進入利潤表的等權(quán)益資產(chǎn)更低。表：上市險企長期股權(quán)投資規(guī)模及占投資資產(chǎn)比重（單位：百萬元，）長期股權(quán)投資規(guī)模中國人壽201334,775.018,138.0201444,390.012,898.0264.0201547,175.026,858.0324.0201648,955.0151.02017161,472.086,207.05,271.04,896.097,740.020172018201,661.0154,895.017,472.04,792.0107,492.020182019222,983.0204,135.020,442.04,917.02019中國平安中國太保新華保險9,404.0-10,150.036,128.020143,626.053,308.020154,575.085,834.02016中國人保占投資資產(chǎn)比重中國人壽20131.9%1.5%0.0%1.7%-2.1%2.1%4.9%6.2%6.5%6.2%中國平安0.9%1.6%2.5%3.5%5.5%6.4%中國太保0.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%1.4%1.4%新華保險1.6%0.6%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.6%中國人保5.2%7.2%10.6%12.0%12.0%Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部盈利表現(xiàn)：驅(qū)動因子分化，評估利率下行NBV=新單規(guī)模*2019年上市險企NBVNBV增長將更依賴新單規(guī)模提升。EV除投資等短期波動的ROEV增速穩(wěn)健，剩余邊際儲備較好，上市險企業(yè)績安全邊際較性承壓。價值增長分化，價值率下行壓力增加新業(yè)務(wù)價值表現(xiàn)分化。國壽、平安、太保、新華、人保分別實現(xiàn)新業(yè)務(wù)價值586.98、759.45245.9797.7961.88+18.6%+5.1%-9.3%-19.9%、+7.9%NBV改善動力主要來源于新業(yè)務(wù)價值率的提升，同比分別增加4.6、3.6、；太保價值率企穩(wěn)而新單下滑明顯，新華新單增速較好但價值率大幅下行，導(dǎo)致NBV增速下滑。24/35合價值率預(yù)期略有下行，NBV增長將更依賴新單規(guī)模提升。圖：上市險企增速（單位：）圖：上市險企新業(yè)務(wù)價值率（單位：）Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部；人保NBVM為計算值，其余為披表：上市險企業(yè)務(wù)價值率對比（單位：）中國人壽個險渠道團險渠道銀保渠道合計201842.2%0.8%201945.3%0.6%中國太保傳統(tǒng)壽險分紅壽險2018201977.9%24.2%中國平安個人業(yè)務(wù)201853.9%57.1%94.7%16.9%55.4%41.1%18.7%1.3%201959.7%64.9%104.9%22.1%56.2%39.3%20.4%1.3%78.4%38.1%代理人渠道18.7%28.3%201823.8%32.9%2019長期保障型合計43.7%201843.3%2019短交儲蓄型新華保險個險渠道銀保渠道團險渠道合計中國人保銀行保險個人保險團體保險總計長交儲蓄型60.6%12.2%-4.1%46.2%49.3%2.8%1.2%0.7%電銷、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)及其他渠道銀保渠道38.6%5.6%27.4%6.8%-8.6%30.3%團險業(yè)務(wù)10.6%43.7%47.3%壽險及健康險業(yè)務(wù)合計Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部；平安、太保、國壽均為披露值，新華、人保為計算值NBV和投資敏感性略有上升。在保障業(yè)務(wù)占比企穩(wěn)而儲蓄型業(yè)務(wù)略有復(fù)蘇的背景下，NBV和VIF對投資收益率的敏感性略有提升。假設(shè)投資收益率增加50BP，國壽、1.21.00.62.5pct價值敏感性同比分別增加0.30、0.24、0.40、0.82pct。預(yù)計保費結(jié)構(gòu)變化和負債久期拉長是主要原因，隨著儲蓄業(yè)務(wù)逐步回暖，分紅險的增加或降低投資敏感性。25/35圖：投資收益率下新業(yè)務(wù)價值敏感性（單位：）圖：投資收益率下有效業(yè)務(wù)價值敏感性（單位：）Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部利潤儲備較優(yōu)，關(guān)注準(zhǔn)備金變化剩余邊際儲備較好，營運利潤平穩(wěn)增長上市險企剩余邊際儲量高，釋放穩(wěn)健，營運利潤增速平穩(wěn)。2019年，國壽、平安、太保、新華的剩余邊際余額分別為7,683、9,1843,296、2,145億元，相比年初分別增長12.3%16.8%15.5%9.7%來看，每年的剩余邊際攤銷占稅前營運利潤比重在60%-70%，占比較高，對營運利潤增長有較好貢獻，為上市險企業(yè)績提供了較強的安全邊際。2019年，平安、太保集團歸母營運利潤分別為1,329.55、278.78億元，同比分別增長18.1%、13.1%，增速平穩(wěn)。圖：上市險企剩余邊際余額及相比年初增速（單位：億元，）10,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000040%35%30%25%20%15%10%20162017中國人壽國壽增速2018H2018中國太保太保增速2019H2019新華保險新華增速中國平安平安增速Wind,公司公告，XXX市場部表：平安壽險及健康險業(yè)務(wù)的營運利潤分析（單位：百萬元，）201638,2025,6482017H23,9893,24520177,3572018H20182019H35,8405,2162019剩余邊際攤銷29,5594,31062,2878,95974,454凈資產(chǎn)投資收益26/35息差收入3,7156,3172,4728,9735,63710,10872,91268.3%2,80047,83861.8%5,04821,74998,04363.5%1,62812,21954,90365.3%3,94710,406100,54574.1%營運偏差及其他稅前營運利潤合計剩余邊際攤銷營運利潤53,88270.9%38,67962.0%Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部股基資產(chǎn)高收益率推動利潤增長2019年股基資產(chǎn)綜合收益率達到25%-37%，推動利潤高增長。2019年權(quán)益市場向好下，上市險企股息投資收益率亮眼，公允/總/綜合股基投資收益率分別達到19%-28%、5%-17%25%-37%，高投資收益率推動利潤實現(xiàn)高增長。表：上市險企測算下的公允總綜合股基收投資益率（單位：）公允股基投資收益率2015A-1.04%-0.25%-5.39%2015A25.64%24.13%2015A41.0%30.9%23.7%2016A-3.91%-4.01%-5.48%2016A6.82%6.17%10.82%2016A-1.3%2017A12.55%1.85%9.45%2017A10.62%8.48%16.95%2017A17.7%14.0%19.9%2018H-23.36%-7.13%-16.05%2018H3.24%5.74%1.82%2018H-6.2%20182019H2019太保-26.18%-6.43%-17.28%201847.30%17.19%38.74%2019H10.62%6.15%21.02%2019H38.2%31.2%47.0%28.49%19.40%22.99%2019新華國壽總股基投資收益率太保0.06%3.75%-1.75%20189.25%5.27%16.91%2019新華國壽綜合股基投資收益率太保新華國壽-13.3%-17.8%-14.2%28.9%24.9%36.8%-7.0%-13.3%-8.1%-3.6%Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部評估利率下行，對利潤存一定壓制從基準(zhǔn)評估利率的表現(xiàn)來看，1-10年期國債收益率日移動平均變動在2017年四季度達到拐點，20182019年呈上行趨勢后將再次迎來拐點，2020年起將逐步下行。2019年提升幅度為9.7-12.6BP（去年同期為8.8-16.1BP2020年4月3日的水平延續(xù)，預(yù)計全年下降幅度在31.7-53.1BP數(shù)較高的背景下利潤增長將周期性承壓。27/35圖：中性假設(shè)下基準(zhǔn)利率變動預(yù)期（單位：）日移動平均：年3.63.43.23.02.82.62.4日移動平均：年日移動平均：年Wind,XXX市場部表：國債750日均線變動幅度（單位：）1年期1.535年期2.7810年期2.472019Q12019Q22.713.543.092019Q33.653.633.122019Q41.812.602.232020Q1-5.94-14.43-15.51-17.2216.069.70-3.19-9.75-13.369.48-3.91-7.85-8.888.762020Q2E2020Q3E2020Q4E201820192020E12.55-37.5310.90-31.69-53.10Wind,XXX市場部從實際多提準(zhǔn)備金規(guī)模來看，2019年上市險企均增提準(zhǔn)備金，占歸屬凈利潤的比重為+4%到+47%（去年同期為-22%到+48%利率下行趨勢將帶動評估利率下行，預(yù)期基數(shù)較高的背景下利潤增長將周期性承壓。表：2017年以來多計提責(zé)任準(zhǔn)備金情況及利潤占比（單位：百萬元，）多計提責(zé)任準(zhǔn)備金計提責(zé)任準(zhǔn)備金稅前利潤20179,02332,1939,0248,2822018-3,074-320192,40220,7748,0776,2492018-22.1%-1.8%-1.8%47.9%2019H5.5%20194.0%28.9%47.3%中國人壽中國平安中國太保新華保險2,133-2,0773,816-707-1.8%26.3%-7.1%5,03828/351,751142-81,9920.5%0.0%7.1%中國人保Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部EV增長中投資偏差貢獻明顯，ROEV平穩(wěn)2019年上市險企壽險EV增速為18%-24%，投資偏差貢獻明顯。EV增長的貢獻因素8%-9%EVEV的提升效應(yīng)較為明顯，2019EV增速約在6%-12%；投資偏差今年因權(quán)益市場波動影響較大，增加壽險EV增速2-5pct。表：上市險企主要項目對增速的貢獻（單位：）預(yù)期回報中國人壽中國平安中國太保新華保險NBV20119.3%201210.3%10.4%10.6%9.9%2012201310.5%9.3%10.6%10.1%2013201411.0%9.4%10.7%12.1%201420159.9%9.3%10.4%10.1%20156.9%11.8%9.6%7.8%20150.6%0.3%-0.1%-2.4%20154.5%4.4%2.8%9.2%2015-0.8%-2.4%-4.0%-0.8%20169.3%8.4%9.3%10.7%201620178.0%8.8%9.7%9.7%20179.2%18.7%14.7%9.3%20170.1%2.5%1.0%2.4%2017-0.7%8.4%0.5%0.2%2017-1.1%-4.6%-7.0%-1.2%20188.2%9.1%9.7%9.2%20186.7%14.6%12.7%8.0%20180.0%2.8%-0.1%2.0%2018-6.1%-2.5%0.1%-3.8%2018-1.6%-6.3%-3.9%-1.1%20198.4%9.4%9.3%9.2%20197.4%12.4%9.5%5.6%20190.0%0.6%1.5%0.9%20194.0%5.2%2.0%4.8%2019-0.6%-7.9%-4.9%-1.4%10.1%10.3%13.7%2011中國人壽中國平安中國太保新華保險營運偏差中國人壽中國平安中國太保新華保險投資偏差中國人壽中國平安中國太保新華保險股息注資中國人壽中國平安中國太保新華保險6.8%7.1%11.3%9.7%9.1%20126.3%10.4%8.8%7.4%20136.8%11.0%9.0%7.6%20148.8%15.6%12.5%10.1%201614.3%9.5%16.7%2011-0.4%-0.8%-0.3%-3.0%2011-0.3%-0.7%-0.3%1.4%2012-0.7%-0.3%0.6%-0.9%20130.2%0.1%0.3%-2.5%2014-0.3%-0.1%0.3%1.9%2016-10.8%-1.4%-14.9%-42.4%20113.3%-4.9%0.6%-0.2%2012-6.8%0.8%-3.6%-0.4%201311.5%10.5%6.3%18.0%2014-5.5%-0.2%-0.6%-4.3%2016-3.8%6.6%-2.2%-4.1%-1.1%-2.5%-1.2%-3.4%-2.3%0.0%-2.5%-2.5%1.8%-0.7%-2.2%-5.3%-5.5%-0.8%-1.6%91.2%Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部上市險企壽險ROEV較為平穩(wěn)。因投資回報差異變化幅度較大，同時市場價值調(diào)整、股東分紅等與公司經(jīng)營相關(guān)度并不高，在剔除這些短期波動后，我們計算ROEV來衡29/352019年的ROEV分別為15.8%、25.0%21.3%、13.9%、16.6%，較為平穩(wěn)。表：上市險企壽險業(yè)務(wù)（單位：）內(nèi)含價值營運回報率中國人壽20132014201517.4%21.4%19.9%14.2%9.3%201620172018201916.2%19.5%20.0%15.6%17.0%17.9%20.5%19.9%15.8%13.1%17.8%27.0%24.9%23.0%11.8%17.3%35.5%27.5%20.3%16.4%15.0%30.8%23.6%19.2%16.4%15.8%25.0%21.3%13.9%16.6%中國平安中國太保新華保險人保壽險Wind，公司公告，XXX市場部；因上市險企EV披露口徑略有差異，只有平安16-17年、新華露是以暫不考慮；同時，2016年償二代及假設(shè)調(diào)整對EV影響暫不考慮投資展望：負債端長期具潛力，投資端關(guān)注利率影響市場對于其中長期成長性的考量。展望2020年，分析的邏輯不變但各因素狀態(tài)已發(fā)生較大變化。重點關(guān)注疫情對新單影響及代理人的復(fù)產(chǎn)復(fù)工目前各公司根據(jù)不同地區(qū)政府安排逐步恢復(fù)代理人職場間利率低位下長期儲蓄型業(yè)務(wù)增速將持續(xù)回暖，代理人量質(zhì)和新單增速將逐步提升，推動NBV穩(wěn)健增長。表：公司保費收入變動情況（單位：億元，）2020年月累計保費667.332020年月月度保費147.802020年月月度保費519.532020年月累計同比-0.09%2020年月月度同比-2.44%2020年月月度同比0.60%人身險太保人壽中國人壽新華保險平安壽險太平壽險人保壽險國華人壽2280.00345.001935.0020.51%10.03%22.59%395.601365.10418.29422.4788.55319.2363.4077.85307.051045.88354.89344.6244.22%-12.57%-8.70%-8.18%18.05%-8.52%-0.75%-13.90%54.07%-13.74%-9.99%-6.78%91.402020年月累計保費241.9035.302020年月月度保費65.262020年月月度保費176.64-37.53%2020年月累計同比6.56%-57.32%2020年月月度同比-10.82%-7.92%2020年月月度同比14.83%7.24%產(chǎn)險太保產(chǎn)險平安產(chǎn)險太平財險476.20127.18349.022.72%44.3215.1029.228.24%5.31%9.81%30/35人保財險天安財險眾安在線750.2125.95225.147.48525.0718.46-4.40%0.21%-6.79%-14.84%46.34%-3.33%7.94%25.6510.8014.8555.17%2020年月累計同比1.59%62.30%2020年月月度同比3.86%2020年月累計保費909.232020年月月度保費213.062020年月月度保費696.172020年月月度同比-5.17%公司合計中國太保中國平安中國太平中國人保1893.32472.17465.7780.691427.56391.48918.57-8.56%-7.10%-5.13%-7.79%-0.88%-9.32%-8.81%-8.2