金融危機(jī),銀行倒閉和中央銀行的作用課件

FinancialCrises,BankFailures,andtheRoleofCentralBanks

金融危機(jī)，銀行倒閉和中央銀行的作用英格蘭銀行培訓(xùn)中心主任MarioI.Blejer12BASICQUESTIONS:（兩個(gè)基本問(wèn)題）

DefinitionofFinancialCrises（金融危機(jī)的定義）

CausesoftheFinancialCrises（金融危機(jī)的根源）Bankingcrises(runs,panics,etc.)

BoPandCurrencyCrises

（銀行危機(jī)（擠提、恐慌等），國(guó)際收支和貨幣危機(jī)）However,underfixedXR,abankrunturnsintoacurrencyruniftheCentralBankactsasalenderoflastresort.（然而，在固定匯率體制下，如果中央銀行作為最后貸款人，銀行擠提就會(huì)演變?yōu)樨泿艛D提）AndifaCentralBank’sdefenseofthepegisbasedinaggressivelyraisingshort-terminterestrates,banksoundnesscouldbeseverelydamaged（如果中央銀行依靠大幅提高短期利率來(lái)維護(hù)盯住匯率，銀行的穩(wěn)健就會(huì)受到嚴(yán)重破壞）

MainCausesofBankingCrises

（銀行危機(jī)的主要根源）DomesticandExternalMacroeconomicVolatility（國(guó)內(nèi)外宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)）2.CreditBoomsandCapitalInflows（信貸擴(kuò)張和資本流入）3.Assetpricesbubblesandcollapses（資產(chǎn)價(jià)格泡沫及其破滅）ExcessivePublicSectorinvolvementandPoliticalpressures（公共部門過(guò)度參與和政治壓力）MainCausesofBankingCrises(cont’d)

銀行危機(jī)的主要根源（續(xù)）Increasingcurrencyandmaturitymismatches

（貨幣和期限錯(cuò)配加大）6.LegalandPrudentialWeaknesses

（法律和審慎框架的弱點(diǎn)）WrongIncentivestoBankersandDepositors

（為銀行家和存款人提供錯(cuò)誤的激勵(lì)）1.MacroeconomicVolatility（宏觀波動(dòng)）Volatilitiestendtoalterrelationshipbetweenthevaluesofbankassetsandliabilities（波動(dòng)一般會(huì)改變銀行資產(chǎn)和負(fù)債價(jià)值之間的關(guān)系）Sources--DomesticandExternal（來(lái)源—內(nèi)部和外部）EXTERNAL:--TermsofTradefluctuations（外部—貿(mào)易條件變動(dòng)）

ForeignInterestRatesandCapitalFlows（外國(guó)利率和資本流動(dòng)）

RealExchangeRates（實(shí)際匯率）DOMESTIC:--InflationandGrowthRates（內(nèi)部——通貨膨脹和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率）Volatilitiescouldalsobedealtwithby:

（也可通過(guò)下列方式應(yīng)對(duì)波動(dòng)）Insurance（保險(xiǎn)）

Promotethedevelopmentofmarketinstrumentsthatprovideprotectionagainstvolatilities–Derivativemarkets（促進(jìn)能夠抵御波動(dòng)的市場(chǎng)工具的發(fā)展——衍生市場(chǎng)）Financialcushionagainstvolatility-inducedlosses--Capitallevelstocompensateforvolatilities（為波動(dòng)帶來(lái)的損失提供財(cái)務(wù)上的緩沖手段，提高資本金水平應(yīng)對(duì)波動(dòng)沖擊）2.CreditBoomsandCapitalInflows

（信貸擴(kuò)張和資本流入）ExcessiveCreditCreationandUnsoundFinancialExpansionintheUpswing(mixedevidence)（信貸過(guò)度擴(kuò)張以及經(jīng)濟(jì)上升期金融不穩(wěn)健行為（各種證據(jù)））Surgeofshorttermandunstablecapitalinflows（大量短期的不穩(wěn)定的資本流入）Shouldcentralbanksdiscouragecreditboomsandshorttermcapitalinflows?Andhow?

（中央銀行是否應(yīng)抑制信貸擴(kuò)張和短期資本流入？如何抑制？）3.Assetpricesbubblesandcollapses

（資產(chǎn)價(jià)格泡沫和泡沫的破滅）Assetpricesboomscarriestheriskofabust(i.e.,abubble)thatwilldestroythevalueofsecuritiesheldinbanks.Theycreateacollateral-inducedcreditcrunch（資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的迅速上漲會(huì)引起泡沫破裂的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，將破壞銀行持有的擔(dān)保品的價(jià)值。資產(chǎn)價(jià)格迅速上漲能夠帶來(lái)抵押品引起的信貸緊縮）Assetpricebubblesdistortfinancialdecisionsanddifficultpropercreditriskmanagement（資產(chǎn)價(jià)格泡沫擾亂金融決策，并提高制定合理的信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理政策、措施的難度）Bubblesaffectmacroeconomicpoliciesandcouldleadtooutputcontraction（資產(chǎn)價(jià)格泡沫影響宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策并導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)出下降）ShouldCentralBankstakeactiontorestrainan“excessive’’riseinassetprices—inordertopreventfinancialinstability—evenwheninflationforecastsdonotdeviatefromthetargetrates?

(即使通貨膨脹預(yù)測(cè)沒(méi)有偏離目標(biāo)——為了防止金融不穩(wěn)定——中央銀行是否也應(yīng)采取措施抑制資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的“過(guò)度”上升？)Whattypeofaction?Shouldmonetarypolicybetightened?（采取何種措施？是否應(yīng)緊縮貨幣政策？)Inthemistofacrisis,howshouldthecentralbankdealwithabubble?(在危機(jī)過(guò)程中，中央銀行如何處理“泡沫”？)THEDEBATEINTHELITERATURE某些文獻(xiàn)中的不同觀點(diǎn)AlternativeView其它觀點(diǎn)CentralBanksshouldtakeactiontorestrainan“excessive”riseinassetprices,evenwheninflationforecastsdonotdeviatefromthetargetrates.（即使預(yù)期的通貨膨脹率沒(méi)有超過(guò)目標(biāo)，中央銀行也應(yīng)當(dāng)對(duì)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的“過(guò)度”上漲采取控制措施。）Toreducethelikelihoodofmisalignments(bubbles)reactiontoassetpricesshouldbeinthenormalcourseofpolicymaking（調(diào)整資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的措施應(yīng)當(dāng)作為決策的常規(guī)內(nèi)容，以便降低資產(chǎn)價(jià)格失真的可能性）

Argumentsagainstreactingdirectlytoassetprices:

（反對(duì)直接調(diào)整資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的觀點(diǎn)）Assetpricesaretoovolatile.（資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)太大）Misalignmentofassetpricesareclosetoimpossibletoidentify…（確認(rèn)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格是否失真很難……）andevenmoredifficulttocorrect.（糾正更難）Systematicallyreactingreactingtoassetpricesmaybedestabilizingandcreatemoralhazard.（對(duì)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的系統(tǒng)性調(diào)整可能會(huì)造成不穩(wěn)定并引發(fā)敗德行為）Misalignmentofassetprices(bubbles)aredifficulttoidentify（確認(rèn)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格失調(diào)（泡沫）很難）Difficultytodistinguishbetweenassetpricemovementsthatarewarrantedbyunderlyingfundamentalsandthosethatarenot(expectationsdriven,etc.)（很難區(qū)分資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的變動(dòng)是否有基本面的相應(yīng)變動(dòng)作支撐（預(yù)期引起的價(jià)格變動(dòng)，等等）Equitypricecouldfallbecauselowerexpectedfutureearnings(e.g.,lowerproductivitygrowthorhigherexpectedtaxes)orachangeinequityriskpremium（股票價(jià)格可能會(huì)因預(yù)期未來(lái)盈利下降（如，更低的勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)率和更高的預(yù)期稅收）或?qū)︼L(fēng)險(xiǎn)補(bǔ)償?shù)囊笞兓碌?.ExcessivePublicSectorinvolvementandPoliticalpressures（公共部門過(guò)度干預(yù)和政治壓力）Loandecisionsofpublicbanksmorelikelytobesubjecttopoliticalconsiderations（國(guó)有銀行的貸款決策更有可能受到政治因素的影響）Governmentinfluenceoncreditallocation(priceandquantities)ofprivatebanks(政府會(huì)對(duì)私有銀行的信貸分配（價(jià)格和數(shù)量）施加影響）Regulationpreventingbanksfromengaginginprofitablebankingactivities（一些監(jiān)管規(guī)定阻礙銀行從事有利可圖的銀行業(yè)務(wù)）4.ExcessivePublicSectorinvolvementandPoliticalpressures（公共部門過(guò)度干預(yù)和政治壓力）

Interestratecapsandhighreserverequirements利率上限和高水平的準(zhǔn)備金要求Governmentforcingbanks—publicandprivate—tofinancethebudgetandtoholdgovernmentpaperatbelowmarketrates,oroverandabovecompetitiveandcreditriskconsiderations政府迫使銀行（無(wú)論是國(guó)有銀行還是私有銀行）為預(yù)算融資，并以不合理的條件持有政府債券（如低于市場(chǎng)收益率，高于或超出具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的價(jià)格范圍或信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承受能力）5.Increasingcurrencyandmaturitymismatches

（貨幣和期限錯(cuò)配加大）Advancesintechnologyandfinancialliberalizationfacilitatetherapidtransformationofcurrencycompositionofbankdeposits（技術(shù)進(jìn)步和金融自由化便利了銀行存款幣種結(jié)構(gòu)的迅速轉(zhuǎn)化）Highdomesticinterestratesincreasesincentivestodenominatedebtinforeigncurrency（國(guó)內(nèi)利率水平高增加了使用外幣為債務(wù)計(jì)價(jià)的動(dòng)機(jī)）CentralBanksshouldimplementprudentialmeasuresthatlimitthescaleofshortrunforeigncurrencydenominatedborrowing(bybanksandcustomers)

（中央銀行需要使用謹(jǐn)慎的舉措來(lái)限制（銀行和消費(fèi)者）短期外幣借款的規(guī)模嗎？）

AdoptandEnforceRegulationsthatPromotedeeperlonger-termcreditmarkets（制定并執(zhí)行監(jiān)管措施，以增加長(zhǎng)期信貸市場(chǎng)的市場(chǎng)深度）Ingeneral,higherforeignexchangereservesreducevulnerabilities.Increasingreservesintimeofcrisisisconducivetoincreaseconfidence–(CooperativeagreementsbetweenCentralBanks)（一般來(lái)說(shuō)，外匯儲(chǔ)備水平越高，越有助于降低脆弱性。在危機(jī)爆發(fā)期間增