太陽能科技英文PhotovoltaicSolarEnergy課件

PhotovoltaicSolarEnergy

FuturesPresentedtotheMinnesotaFuturists16May2009DickSaundersandDavidKeenanButfirstawordfromoursponsorTheFuturistToolofthedayTrendAnalysisandExtrapolationTrendAnalysis&ExtrapolationAMethodEveryoneUsesTrendanalysisinvolvestheuseofanyofavarietyoftechniquesbasedonhistoricaldata.Trendanalysisinvolvesseveralprocesses.Oneprocessisspottinganemergingtrend,thatis,identifyingachangeintheworldaroundus.Nowyouneedtodosomeanalysistoseewhatthenatureofthetrendisandwhatitsimplicationsmightbe.YoucouldfirstlookathistoricaldataTrendAnalysis&ExtrapolationTrendanalysisrequiresthatyoudomorethansimplyextrapolatethetrendforward.Youhavetoask,whatiscausingthistrend,andwillthosecausescontinueindefinitely?

Arethereupperlimitstothetrend?Whatotherforcesmayaffectthetrend?

Atthispointtrendanalysisreliesmoreonsubjectivejudgmentratherthanobjectiveextrapolationofhistoricaldata.Assumingthatthefuturewillbelikethepastorthatpastchangeswillcontinueinthesamedirectionandrateisaperfectlysensiblewaytobegintryingtounderstandthefuture.Itcannot,however,betheendofourendeavors,orwewouldendupwithabsurdresults.TrendstoAnalyzeinThisTalkSolarCellsMarketsizeMarketshareSalesUnitsPowerproducedCostperpowerdeliveredAgendaTheSunSolarCellsBackgroundHowtheyworkTypesMarketsCostsCountriesCompaniesQuestionsEnergyfromtheSunAbouthalftheincomingsolarenergyreachestheEarth'ssurface.TheEarthreceives174

petawatts(PW)(1015watts)ofincomingsolarradiationattheupperatmosphere.Approximately30%isreflectedbacktospacewhiletherestisabsorbedbyclouds,oceansandlandmasses.Earth'slandsurface,oceansandatmosphereabsorbsolarradiation,andthisraisestheirtemperature.Sunlightabsorbedbytheoceansandlandmasseskeepsthesurfaceatanaveragetemperatureof14

°C.Byphotosynthesisgreenplantsconvertsolarenergyintochemicalenergy,whichproducesfood,woodandthebiomassfromwhichfossilfuelsarederived.BreakdownofincomingsolarenergyEnergyfromtheSunYearlySolarfluxes&HumanEnergyConsumption

ThetotalsolarenergyabsorbedbyEarth'satmosphere,oceansandlandmassesisapproximately3,850,000

exajoules(EJ)(1018joules)peryear.(70%ofincomingsunlight)(1Joule=energyrequiredtoheatonegramofdry,coolairby1?C)Primaryenergyuse(2005)487

EJ(0.0126%)

Electricity(2005)56.7

EJ(0.0015%)

Thereforeagoodtarget

2002,moreenergyinonehourthantheworldusedintheyear.Photosynthesiscapturesapproximately3,000

EJperyearinbiomass.TheamountofsolarenergyreachingthesurfaceoftheplanetissovastthatinoneyearitisabouttwiceasmuchaswilleverbeobtainedfromalloftheEarth'snon-renewableresourcesofcoal,oil,naturalgas,andmineduraniumcombined.Asintermittentresources,solarandwindraiseissues.PVSolarforElectricityPhotovoltaicsForthe2billionpeoplewithoutaccesstoelectricity,itwouldbecheapertoinstallsolarpanelsthantoextendtheelectricalgrid.(TheFundforRenewableEnergyEverywhere)

Providingpowerforvillagesindevelopingcountriesisafast-growingmarketforphotovoltaics.TheUnitedNationsestimatesthatmorethan2millionvillagesworldwidearewithoutelectricpowerforwatersupply,refrigeration,lighting,andotherbasicneeds,andthecostofextendingtheutilitygridsisprohibitive,$23,000to$46,000perkilometerin1988.AonekilowattPVsystem*eachmonth:prevents150lbs.ofcoalfrombeingminedprevents300lbs.ofCO2fromenteringtheatmospherekeeps105gallonsofwaterfrombeingconsumedkeepsNOandSO2frombeingreleasedintotheenvironment*inColorado,oranequivalentsystemthatproduces150kWhpermonthHowSolarCellsWorkPhotonsinsunlighthitthesolarpanelandareabsorbedbysemiconductingmaterials,suchassilicon.Electrons(negativelycharged)areknockedloosefromtheiratoms,allowingthemtoflowthroughthematerialtoproduceelectricity.Anarrayofsolarcellsconvertssolarenergyintoausableamountofdirectcurrent(DC)electricity.SolarCellsBackgroundThreegenerationsofsolarcellsSolarCellsareclassifiedintothreegenerationswhichindicatestheorderofwhicheachbecameimportant.Atpresentthereisconcurrentresearchintoallthreegenerationswhilethefirstgenerationtechnologiesaremosthighlyrepresentedincommercialproduction,accountingfor89.6%of2007production.SolarCellsBackgroundSecondGeneration–ThinFilmCells

CdTe4.7%&CIGS0.5%of2007ProductionNewmaterialsandprocessestoimproveefficiencyandreducecost.Asmanufacturingtechniquesevolve,productioncostswillbedominatedbyconstituentmaterialrequirements,whetherthisbeasiliconsubstrate,orglasscover.Thinfilmcellsuseabout1%oftheexpensivesemiconductorscomparedtoFirstGenerationcells.Themostsuccessfulsecondgenerationmaterialshavebeencadmiumtelluride(CdTe),copperindiumgalliumselenide(CIGS),amorphoussiliconandmicromorphoussilicon.Trendtowardsecondgen.,butcommercializationhasprovendifficult.2007-FirstSolarproduced200

MWofCdTesolarcells,5thlargestproducerin2007andthefirsttoreachtop10fromofsecondgenerationtechnologiesalone.2007-WurthSolarcommercializeditsCIGStechnologyproducing15

MW.2007-NanosolarcommercializeditsCIGStechnologyin2007withaproduction.capacityof430

MWfor2008intheUSAandGermany.2008-HondabegantocommercializetheirCIGSbasesolarpanel.CdTe–8–11%efficiency(18%demonstrated)CIGS–7-11%efficiency(20%demonstrated)Paybacktime<1yearinEuropeandSolarGenerationVReportSept08SolarCellsBackgroundThirdGeneration–Multi-junctionCellsThirdgenerationtechnologiesaimtoenhancepoorelectricalperformanceofsecondgeneration(thin-filmtechnologies)whilemaintainingverylowproductioncosts.Currentresearchistargetingconversionefficienciesof30-60%whileretaininglowcostmaterialsandmanufacturingtechniques.Theycanexceedthetheoreticalsolarconversionefficiencylimitforasingleenergythresholdmaterial,31%under1sunilluminationand40.8%underthemaximalartificialconcentrationofsunlight(46,200suns).Approachestoachievingthesehighefficienciesincludingtheuseofmultijunctionphotovoltaiccells,concentrationoftheincidentspectrum,theuseofthermalgenerationbyUVlighttoenhancevoltageorcarriercollection,ortheuseoftheinfraredspectrumfornight-timeoperation.Typicallyusefresnellens(3M)orotherconcentrators,butcannotusediffusesunlightandrequiresuntrackinghardwareMulti-junctioncells–30%efficiency(40-43%demonstrated)andSolarGenerationVReportSept08GlobalCumulativePVPowerSolarCellMarketEstimate--FirstGeneration----SecondGeneration---ThirdGen-SEMIPVGroupMarch2009fromsourceYoleDevelopmentGlobalAnnualPVMarketOutlookSolarPVMarketOutlookSEMIPVGroupMarch2009fromsourceEPIASolarGenerationVSept08by20308.9%ofGlobalEnergy,1,864GWProductionCapacity,2,646TWhElectricityCumulativeinstalledsolarelectricpowerby20071stGermany 3.8GW2ndJapan 1.9GW3rdUS 814MW4thSpain 632MWWorld'slargestphotovoltaic(PV)powerplants(12MWorlarger)1]

NameofPVpowerplant

Country

DC

Peak

Power

(MW)GW·h

/year

Notes

OlmedillaPhotovoltaicParkSpain6085CompletedSeptember2008PuertollanoPhotovoltaicParkSpain502008MouraphotovoltaicpowerstationPortugal4693CompletedDecember2008WaldpolenzSolarParkGermany4040550,000FirstSolarthin-filmCdTemodules.CompletedDec2008ArnedoSolarPlantSpain34CompletedOctober2008Merida/DonAlvaroSolarParkSpain30CompletedSeptember200817more2moreSpainKoreaAvg20Avg20KoethenGermany14.7513200,000FirstSolarthin-filmCdTemodules.CompletedDec2008NellisSolarPowerPlantUSA14.023070,000solarpanelsPlantaSolardeSalamanca6moreSpain,1US,1GermanySpain13.8Avg12n.a.70,000KyocerapanelsOlmedillaSolarPark60MWpphotovoltaicparkinstalledbyNobesolwithmodulesfromSilikinGermany10,000companies,includinginstallersworkinsolarPV80companiesarecellandmodulemakers42,000employeesSaleswere$5.7Bincluding$2.5BinexportsThe‘feed-in’tariff2008Germanutilitiespay$0.47to$0.68/kWhdependingontypeandsizeofsystemfornewsolarsystemsUtilitiespasscosttoconsumers–Germanyaverageis$1.65/monthSolarGenerationVReportSep2008WaldpolenzSolarParkTheWaldpolenzSolarParkisbuiltonasurfaceareaequivalentto200soccerfields,thesolarparkwillbecapableoffeeding40megawattsintothepowergridwhenfullyoperationalin2009.Inthestart-upphase,the130-million-euro($201million)plantitwillhaveacapacityof24megawatts,accordingtotheJuwigroup,whichoperatestheinstallation.

Thefacility,locatedeastofLeipzig,usesstate-of-the-art,thin-filmtechnology.Some550,000thin-filmmoduleswillbeused,ofwhich350,000havealreadybeeninstalled.ThedirectcurrentproducedinthePVsolarmoduleswillbeconvertedintoalternatingcurrentandfedcompletelyintothepowergrid.Afterjustayearthesolarpowerstationwillhaveproducedtheenergyneededtobuildit,accordingtotheJuwigroup.WaldpolenzSolarParkWaldpolenzSolarParkUnitedStates2007-PVproductiongrewinallareasofUSmarketUSleadsdevelopmentofthin-filmtechnologyaccountingfornearlyhalftheglobalproduction2007–about50,000employeesCAdominateswith60%ofinstalledcapacityVariousstateRenewablePortfolioStandards(RPS)andFederalInvestmentTaxCredits(ITC)areincentives.SolarAmericaInitiativemakingprogressongoaltobringPVcoststogridparityby2015SolarGenerationVReportSep2008RenewableEnergyConsumption

intheUSEnergySupply,2007ChartDataFigure1.1TheRoleofRenewableEnergyConsumptionintheNation'sEnergySupply,2007(QuadrillionBtu)

ConsumptionShareTotalUS101.545Coal22.77622%NaturalGas23.63723%Petroleum39.77339%NuclearElectricPower8.4158%RenewableEnergy:6.8137%Ofwhich:Hydroelectric2.44636%GeothermalEnergy0.3495%Biomass3.59653%

SolarEnergy0.0811%WindEnergy0.3415%USSolarIndustryDataSizeofU.S.Market

2008-U.S.hadabout8,800megawatts(MW)ofinstalledsolarcapacity.

1,100MWofphotovoltaics(PV),

418MWofutility-scaleconcentratingsolarpower, 485MWTh(megawattsthermalequivalent)ofsolarwaterheatingsystems7,000MWThofsolarpoolheatingsystems.RankingofU.S.Market:Cumulativeinstalledsolarelectricpowerby2007.1stGermany3.8GW,2ndJapan1.9GW,3rdUS814MW,4thSpain632MWGrowthofU.S.Market2008-morethan18,000individualPVsystemswereinstalled.Totaled342MW:292MWwasgrid-connected.GrowthofU.S.Manufacturing2008domesticPVcellmanufacturingcapacitygrew65percentto685MWandproductiongrew53percentto414MW.(Resultspreliminary)(Source:GreentechMediaResearchandthePrometheusInstitute)andSolarGenerationVReportSep2008Solarenergyrepresentslessthan1%oftheU.S.energymix.However,asaresultofgrowingawarenessaboutreliable,off-the-shelftechnology,concernsaboutrisingcosts,energysecurityandsupplies,andnewstateandfederalincentives,deploymentofsolarenergyhasexplodedsince2005.NellisAFBSolarpanelsGMinstallsworld'sbiggestrooftopsolarpanelsThelargestrooftopsolarpowerstationintheworldisbeingbuiltinSpain.Withacapacityof12MWofpower,thestationismadeupof85,000lightweightpanelscoveringanareaoftwomillionSqFt.Manufacturedinrolls,ratherlikecarpet,thephotovoltaicpanelsaretobeinstalledontheroofofaGeneralMotorscarfactoryinZaragoza,Spain.GeneralMotors,whichplanstoinstallsolarpanelsatanother11plantsacrossEurope,unveiledthe€50M($68M)projectyesterday.ThepowerstationshouldbeproducingenergybySeptember.Thepanelswillproduceanexpectedannualoutputof15.1millionkilowatthours(kWh)-enoughtomeettheneedsof4,600householdswithanaverageconsumptionof3,300kWh,orpowerathirdoftheGMfactory.ThesolarenergyproducedshouldcutCO2emissionsby6,700tonsayear.EnergyConversionDeviceswhomakesthepanels,saiditwouldbethelargestrooftopsolararrayintheworld.9July2008

GMinstallsworld'sbiggestrooftopsolarpanels9July2008

Japan2002-BasicActonEnergyPolicytosecurestableenergysupply,environmentalsuitabilityanduseofmarketmechanismsBy2006,installed1.2GWfor350,000homes2008–Newresearchinitiativetoimproveyieldsfrom10-15%to40%andreducecostfrom$0.48/kWhto$0.073/kWhSolarGenerationVReportSep2008China2007NationalRenewableEnergytargets10%by2010(300MW)15%by2020(1.8GW)Supplies1,130tonsofpolysiliconfrom6companiesSupplies21,400tonsofsiliconingotfrom70companiesNumber1PVpanelproducer–1.1GW50PVpanelcompaniesincludingSuntech,Yingli,HebeiJingao,JiansuLinyang,andNangjingCEEG82,800employees(6timesthatof2005)SolarGenerationVReportSep2008Top10PVCellProducersUntilrecentlyBPSolarwasdominantsupplier.NewTop10produce53%ofworldtotalQ-Cells,SolarWorld-GermanySharp,Kyocera,Sharp,Sanyo–JapanSuntech,Yingli,JASolar–ChinaMotech-TaiwanBPSolarBPSolartosupplyPVpowersystemsforWal-MartinCA22April2009Underapowerpurchaseagreement(PPA),BPwillfinance,installandmaintainthesystemsandWal-Martwillhaveimmediateaccesstocleanelectricitywithnoupfrontcapitalcosttotheretailer.Willinitiallybuild10to20rooftopsystemsatWal-MartlocationsinCalifornia,andwouldworkwiththeretailertoevaluatethepotentialforadditionalprojects.Expectstocompletethefirstset,10MWofinstalledsolarpower,withinabout18months.2008BPcompleted4.1MWsolarsystemsfor7Wal-Marts&Sam’sClubsinCA.Since1998,BPguaranteesitsmodulesfor25years.BPSolar,partofBPAlternativeEnergy,isaglobalcompanywithabout2000employees.Withover35yearsofexperienceandinstallationsinmostcountries,BPSolarisoneoftheworld'sleadingsolarcompanies.BPisoneoftheworld’slargestenergycompanies,inmorethan100countriesandover96,000employees.BPaxes620jobsfromsolarbusiness01April,2009-BPtoaxe620jobsfromitssolarpowerbusiness–morethanaquarterofthatworkforce–inamoveitsaidwaspartofthelong-termstrategyto"reducethecostofsolarpowertothatofconventionalelectricity.“TwocellmanufactureandmoduleassemblyplantsnearMadrid,willbeshutwiththelossof480postswhilemoduleassemblywillalsobephasedoutatitsFrederickfacilityinMaryland,US,withafurther140redundancies.BPblamedthecutbacksonthecreditcrunchandlower-costcompetitionsayingitsglobalmanufacturingcapacitywouldstillincreaseduringthisyearandnextviaaseriesofstrategicallianceswithothercompanies.QCellsSE1999founded,2001beganwiththeproductionofsiliconsolarcellswith19employees.By2009,2,600employees(2007,1700employees)Nowthelargestsolarcellmanufacturerintheworld.(since2007)ContinuetoexpandproductioninBitterfeld-Wolfen,GermanyandstartconstructionofnewMalaysianproductionfacility.Alongsidethemonocrystallineandpolycrystalline(90%ofbusiness)corebusiness,weuseawiderangeoftechnologiestodevelopandproducethin-filmmodules.(thin-film-25%shareofsmallermarket)2008Sales$1.69B2007Sales$1.16BprofitableQCE:FrankfurtexchangeandSharpSolarSubsidiaryofSharpElectronics,Osaka,JapanProducessiliconsolarcellsandthinfilm,leveragingsiliconknowledgefromLCDmanufacturing2008,capacitywillreach1.6millionsquaremetersofthin-filmmodules,aswesimultaneouslybuildtheworld'slargestthinfilmmanufacturingcomplex,capableof10millionsquaremetersperyear.Andthisgigawatt-scalefactoryisonlythefirsttocome.KatsugaCity,NaraandSakaiCity,Osaka,Japan

Thinfilmefficiency9%,expecting10%fromGWfactoryline.Sharppowersmorehomesandbusinessesthananyothersolarmfgintheworld.Firstmfgrtoreach2GWcumulativeproductionsincemassproductionstartin1963Memphis,TN–100MWmanufacturingfacilityandSunTechPowerBEIJING,Jan12,2009(XinhuaviaCOMTEX)China’ssolarproductmakerSunTechPowerHoldingsCo.,Ltd.(STP.NYSE)recentlylaidoff800workersor10percentofitstotalemployeesandpostponeditspreviousplanonrecruiting2,000people,saidShiZhengrong,chairmanandCEO.SunTechdelayedplantoexpandproductioncapacityto1.5GWin2009,whichrequires2,000moreemployees.PlantsinWuxiandotherareasareinnormaloperationwithmorethan50%capacityrunning,comparedwith85%priortofinancialmeltdown.SunTechhasreceivedmorethan800MWofordersin2009including650MWfromEurope.2008overallordersof500MW.SunTechPowerSales$1.9B2008,1.3B2007profitableEmployees:6784STP:NYSEWuxi,ChinaWorldslargestsiliconcellmakerAverageconversionefficiencyratesoftheirmonocrystallineandmulticrystallinesiliconPVcells16.4%and14.9%respectively10May2009announcesplantobuildmanufacturingplantinUS,nowshoppingstatesforincentivesKyoceraSolarUSSolarDivision–Scottsdale,AZSubsidiaryofKyocera,Kyoto,Japan(KYO:NYSE)$13B20082008brokegroundfornewplantinTianjinCity,Chinatoexpandtherefrom60MWto240MWby2011.FirstoneinChina‘032012totalproductioncapacitytobe650MWfromJapan,Mexico,theCzechRepublicandTianjin.Technologybuiltonknowledgeoffineceramics,withmetals,plastics,andelectronicsdevelopedforcopiersandprintersFirstSolarTEMPE,Ariz.--(BUSINESSWIRE)--Feb.24,2009--FirstSolar,Inc.(Nasdaq:FSLR)todayannounceditreduceditsmanufacturingcostforsolarmodulesinthefourthquarterto98centsperwatt,breakingthe$1perwattpricebarrier.2004Beganfullcommercialoperation.Manufacturingcapacityhasgrowntomorethan500MWin2008andwilldoublein2009tomorethan1GW,theequivalentofanaverage-sizednuclearpowerplant.Escalatingvolumesaccompaniedbyarapidreductioninmanufacturingcosts.Manufacturingcostshavedeclinedfromover$3perwatttolessthan$1perwatt.Furthersignificantcostreductionsarepossible.FirstSolarhasindustry’sfirstandonlycomprehensivepre-funded,end-of-lifemodulecollectionandrecyclingprogram,recyclingmorethan90%ofeachcollectedmoduleintonewproducts.(AseriousissueduetoCadmium-Telluride)Highthroughput,automatedlinesthatintegrateeachproductionstep,fromCdTesemiconductordepositiontofinalassemblyandtest,inonecontinuousprocess.Thisadvancedmanufacturingprocesstransformsapieceofglassintoacompletesolarmoduleinlessthan2.5hours.FirstSolarSales$1.2B2008,$504M2007,profitableEmployees:3524Tempe,AZFSLR:NASDAQMotechIndustriesModernTechnologyforaSustainableWorldFounded1981,MotechSolarstarted19972003Publiclytrades6244:TaiwanExchange20088thlargestmanufacturer272MWcrystallineandmulti-crystalsiliconsolarcellsPlantsinTianan,TaiwanandKunshan,China2008Sales$691M,profitable1,331employeesShelldumpswind,solarandhydropowerinfavorofbiofuelsShellwillnolongeri