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NoTHE$12.2billiondealinwhichMarriott,anAmericanhoier,agreedthisweektobuyarival,Starwood,followsmonthsofrumoursaboutthebidtarget,whosebrandsincludeWestinandSheraton.InAprilStarwood’sslowgrowth,atatimewhenotherchainsarengwell,promptedittostartexploring“strategicandfinancialalternatives”.Marriott’sacquisition,announcedonNovember16th,willmakeittheworld’sbiggesthoier:itwillmanagemorethanonemillionrooms,about50%morethanitsclosestrival,Hilton.大量的插入語(yǔ)使的信息“飽滿”介紹“Thedealcomesataheadytimeforhos.EightyearsagoBlackstone,aprivateequityfirm,boughtHiltonfor$26billion.Hilton’svalueplungedduringtherecession,buttheindustry’srecoveryhassincemadethedealoneofprivateequity’smostprofitableonrecord.InAmericarevenueperavailableroom(RevPAR,revenuedividedbyroomsavailableinagivenperiod),hasrisenforthepastfiveyears,accordingtoSTR,adatafirm.PwC,aconsultant,expectsoccupancyratesthisyeartoreachtheirhighestlevelsince1981.Thequestionisnotwhetherthegoodtimeswillend—theywill,soonerorlater—butforhowlonghofirmscanstretchtheirhalcyondays. iers’currentboomisinpartcyclicalandinpartthankstogoodmanagement.Crucially,hocompaniesownfewerhobuildingsthantheyoncedid.Inthis“assetlight”model,firmsearnfeesformanagingandfranchisinghos.Marriottownsorleasesjust2%ofthehoroomsitoperates.Hoiersdonotprofitfromsoaringpropertyprices,buttheyaren’tguttedbyaslumpeither.Thefinancialcrisisprovedthemeritofthismodel:hofirmsdidsufferduringthedownturn,butpropertyinvestorsboremostofthepain.Sincethen,hoiershavebenefitedfromasimplemismatchofsupplyanddemand,particularlyinAmerica.Businesstravelisgrowingagain,butthesupplyofnewhoroomshasyettocatchup.Howlongcanthislast?Hosfacerelentlesschangeonline.Airbnb,aroomsharingsite,offersmoreroomsthaneventhecombinedMarriottandStarwood.Onlinetravelagenciestakeaheftycutofhobookings;pricecomparisonsitesmakeitdifficultforfirmstoraiseroomrates.Growingsupplymaymakeitharderstill.StevenKentofGoldmanSachsexpectsthatthesupplyofnewroomsinthenexttwoyearswilloutpacethatofthepreviousfive.Already,thegrowthofAmericanoccupancyratesandRevPARhasbeguntoslow(seeMarriott’sboss,ArneSorenson,remainssanguineonthebroadermarketandbullishonhisdeal.“Whetherit’sarobustbullmarketorwhetherit’saslowermarket,there’svaluethatwecancreatefromputtingthesetwoplatformstogether,”heargues.Thecostofclosingthedealandintegratingthecompanieswillbesizeable,butMarriottisbuyingStarwoodrelativelycheaply,andwillcontinuewithStarwood’splantobringinupto$2billion,netoftaxes,fromsellingpropertyoverthenexttwoyears.ThedealmayalsohelpMarriottfendoffcha

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