歐洲電力回顧2023-European Electricity Review 2023 Embers analysis of the EU electricity transition in 2022 what happened in 2022,what can we expect for 2023

EuropeanElectricityReview2023ysisoftheEUelectricitytransitionin2022:whathappenedin2022,whatcanweexpectfor2023?date31January2023CreativeCreativeCommonsThisreportispublishedunderaCreativeCommonsShareAlikeAttributionLicence(CCBY-SA4.0).Youareactivelyencouragedtoshareandadaptthereport,butyouymaterialyoucreateunderthesamelicence.Copyright?Ember,2023AboutTheEuropeanElectricityReviewanalysesfull-yearelectricitygenerationandualreportontheEUpowersectorpublishedbyEmber(previouslyasSandbag).OurdataisindthedatausefulfortheirownanalysisLeadauthorDaveJonesOthercontributorsSarahBrown,Pawe?Czy?ak,HannahBroadbent,ChelseaBruce-Lockhart,pseyAlisonCandlinChrisRossloweandHarrietFox.Disclaimermationinthisreportiscompleteandcorrecttothebestofourknowledgebutifyouspotanerrorpleaseemailinfo@Contents4ExecutiveSummary8Chapter1|Pathwayfor1.5C10Chapter2|TheBigPicture32Chapter3|EUElectricityTrends33ElectricityDemand37PowerSectorCO2Emissions44ElectricityGeneration45Chapter4|ElectricitySourceTrends46Solar50Wind54Coal58Gas62Hydro66Nuclear70Bioenergy74Conclusion75SupportingMaterials4rinEUfossilgenerationin2022.-20%ExecutiveSummarynemergesfromtheenergycrisisstrongerthaneverCoalgenerationhasbeenfallingsincethestartofwinter,andastheelectricitytransitionheatsup,fallingfossilfuelpower—especiallygas—issettobethestoryof2023.sonrapidlycuttinggasdemandatthesametimeasphasingoutcoal.Thismeansamassivescale-upincleanenergyisonIn2022,windandsolargeneratedarecordfifthofEUelectricity(22%),forthefirsttakingfossilgasandremainingabovecoalpowernholdbythetwincrisesinossEuropeledtothelowestlevelofhydrogenerationsinceatleast2000,andtherewerewidespreadunexpectedFrenchnuclearoutagesjustasGermannuclearunitsweretotalelectricitydemandin2022.Five-sixthsofthegapwasmadeupbymorewinddButtheremainingsixthwasmetbyincreasedfossilgeneration.Sincecoalwaslessexpensivethangas,coalaccountedforthemajorityoftheincreaserisingTWh)in2022,comparedtoAsaresultEUpowersectoremissionsroseby+26MtCO2)in2022comparedto2021.Gasgenerationwasalmostunchanged(+0.8%),andbecausegaswasalreadymoreexpensivethancoalin2021,therewasnofurtherswitching5sewindsolarandafallinelectricitydemandtexttherisewasnotsubstantialcoalpowerincreasedbyjust1.5percentagepointstogenerate16%ofEUelectricityinonlytoglobalcoalgeneration.willbequitetheoppositeHydrogenerationwillrebound,Frenchnuclearunitswillreturnwindandsolardeploymentwillaccelerate,andelectricitydemandssettowitnesstespeciallygaspowerby6%(-9.6TWh)fromSeptembertoDecembercomparedtotherimarilycausedbyfallingelectricitydemand.The26coalunitsbroughtbackasemergencystandbyrovideanygenerationThesestandbyadditions60203addedonly0.9%toEUcoalgenerationin2022.Despiteimportingthirdofthisandthesurplustwo-thirdsremainedunused.Perhapscouraginglycountriesremainascommittedtophasingoutcoalastheywerebeforethecrisis.ElectricitydemandstartedtofallfastinQ42022comparedtothesameperiodthepreviousyear—closeinscaletothe9.6%fallwitnessedinQ22020whenEuropewasservedinallEUcountriesPriortothefallwasmuchlessnotableAllthreemonthsofQivenlargelybyaffordabilityconcernsalongsidesolidaritybymanycitizenstocutenergydemandinatimeofcrisisandimprovementsinenergyAndwiththestepupinheatpumpsEVsandelectrolysersin2022,itisapparentthatthischangewillhappentheroll-outofcleanenergy.Solar’ssurgeisonlyjuststartinggenerationrosebyarecordTWhinhelpingdbillioningascostsThiswasduetorecordinstallationstyEUcountriesachievedtheirhighestevershareofsolarelectricity.Theovertakingcoalgenerationforthefirsttime.GreeceransolelyonrenewablesforfivehoursinOctoberandisexpectedtoreachits2030solarcapacitytargetof8GWbytheendof2023,sevenyearsEUelectricityin2022.04Gasgenerationsetforarecordfallin20204Fossilgenerationrose3%in2022.Basedonthelatestindustryprojections,thiswillnotberepeatedin2023.EDFforecastsmanynyarealreadysolarandwindgenerationshouldrisebyabout20%,hydrostocksdandelectricitydemandwilllikelycontinueasGermanycompletesitsphase-out.Basedontheseindicationsfromtheindustry,Emberestimatesthatfossilgenerationcouldplummetby20%in2023,doublethepreviousrecordfrom2020.allthefastestsinceitisexpectedtoremainmoreexpensivethancoaluntilatleast2025basedoncurrentforwardprices.Thepowersectorislikelytobethefastestfallingsegmentofgasdemandduring2023,helpingtoropeangasmarketsasEuropeadjuststolifewithoutRussiangas.““Europehasavoidedtheworstoftheenergycrisis.Theshocksof2022onlycausedaminorrippleincoalpowerandahugewaveofsupportforrenewables.Anyfearsofacoalreboundarenowdead.Europe’scleanpowertransitionemergesfromthiscrisisstrongerthanever.NotonlyareEuropeancountriesstillcommittedtophasingoutcoal,theyarenowstrivingtophaseoutgasaswell.TheenergycrisishasundoubtedlyspedupEurope’selectricitytransition.Europeishurtlingtowardsaclean,electrifiedeconomy,andthiswillbeonfulldisplayin2023.Changeiscomingfast,andeveryoneneedstobeDaveJonesmberChapter1|Pathwayfor1.5CShiftingtocleanelectricityby2035TransformingEurope’selectricitysectorwillbeacriticalpartofbuildinganewenergysystemthataddressesthetriplecrisisofclimate,energysecurityandaffordability.Actionthisdecadeiscritical,notonlytoaddresstheimmediatefossilfuelcrisis,buttoquicklybendthecurveonemissions.ThisisanecessityifEuropeistomakeaaircontributiontothegoalsoftheParisAgreementDecarbonisingandexpandingupplyisthemosteffectivewaytodisplacefossilfuelsacrosstheeconomy,reducingrelianceonimportedenergy.Thegoodnewsisallthetechnologiesrequiredtosuperchargethetransitionareavailableandaffordable,mingthebackboneofthetransitionThereisampleevidencethatEuropemustachieveafullydecarbonisedpowersystembythemid2030sforapathwaythatkeeps1.5Cinreach.ThisconclusionisreachedbothbytheIEANetZeroroadmapandanassessmentofthelatestclimatemodelsusedbytheIPCC.TheUKandGermanyarealreadyaimingforcompletelydecarbonisedpowerby2035andtheG7havesetasimilartarget,howeveraEuropeandtheEUislackingModellingbyEmbershowsthatthisispossible.Europecanachieveacleanpowersystemby2035;atnoextracostabovestatedplansandwithoutcompromisingsecurityofsupply.9aswellasimmediateactiontoaddressbarrierstotheexpansionofcleanenergyinfrastructure.SuchamobilistionwouldboosttheEuropeaneconomy,cementthechallengescanbeovercome.Chapter2|TheBigPictureInsightsThebiggeststoriesof2022:thereturntocoalthatwasn’t,winterdemandcollapseandsolar’ssurge.Andlookingforward,2023shouldbetheyearthatthefullscaleofthetransitionbecomesclear.energysystemwouldhavetochangeforever.Someexpectedthatthisnewticallandscapewouldmeanthatthetransitionfromfossilfuelstocleanpowerwouldbeputonpause.Instead,theEUmadeanambitiousenergymediateprioritycentraltoitsresponsetomultipleemergingcrisesAcrossEurope,thecostoffossilfuelreliancecameintofocus,withattentiononhowthisfedintosecurityvulnerabilitiesandcostoflivingincreases,aswellasunprecedenteddisastersstemmingfromextremeweather.Annualpowersectordatareflectstheimpactofthesecrises,butindicatorslookingtowardsthenextwasthestartofaprofoundshiftthatwillcontinuelongbeyondtheemergencyresponsesofthemoment.alWhenRussiainvadedUkraineinFebruary2022,itquicklybecameapparentthatEuropewasfacingagascrisis.Therewerenumerous,rapidresponsesatanEUandMemberStateleveltomitigatetherisksandreducethescaleofthecrisis.Amongahostofothermeasures,theseincludedreactivatingcoalunits,importingmorecoalanddiversifyingfossilfuelsupplies.CombinedwithrisingcoalgenerationatTheThewintercoalsurgedidnotmaterialiseCoalpowerhasbeeninstructuraldeclineintheEUforthepastdecade.Evenwiththerisein2022,coalgenerationwasstill37%below2015levels,producingjustewithawiderviewshowingwhyitisinaccurateThewintercoalsurgedidnotmaterialisehelastfourmonthsofcomparedtothemberbyandDecemberbyAcrossthefourthquarterofthismeantafallofinEUcoalgeneration.Gasgenerationfellevenfurtheroverthesameperiod,by10%.Thefallincoalpowerthiswinterwasduetoamajordecreaseinelectricitydemand.Thiscanbeattributedtotheeffortsofhouseholdsandindustrytoreduceelectricityconsumption,combinedwithmildweather.HadFrenchnuclearpowernotseenreducedgenerationpersistwellintoDecember,thefallsincoalinQ4eenevengreaterInsightprovidesmoredetailonthisdeclineindemand.LowhydroLowhydroandnucleargenerationdroveriseincoalburnstheyeartotalEUcoalgenerationrosebyincomparedtoTherewerelargerisesincoalgenerationearlierintheyear,ashighas35%inMarch2022versusMarch2021.Whilemanycommentatorsspeculatedthisearlytrendcouldcontinueintowinter,theoppositehappened.Lowhydroandnucleargenerationdroveriseincoalburnalgenerationin2022.Five-sixthsofthegapfromnuclearandhydrowasmetbyincreasedwindandsolargenerationandfallingelectricitydemand,whereasonlyone-sixthwasmadeupfromincreasedcoalgeneration.Gasgenerationwasalmostunchanged(+0.8%).TheshortfallTheshortfallinhydropowerarmcoalhadarelativelyminorroleinrespondingtotheseshortfallsAndgiventhatthesearenotrecurringfactors,2023islikelytoplayoutverydifferently[seeInsight4].TheshortfallinhydropowerIn2022,Europefaceditsworstdroughtinatleast500years,pushinghydrogenerationtoitslowestlevelsinceatleast2000.howeverhydropowergenerationin2022was50TWhbelowthe2000-2021average.TheAlpineregionwastheworsthit,withgeneration9%belowthelowestyearsourthlowestlevelofhydrogenerationeNordicregionsawgenerationslightlyaboveaverageOftheThesituationisnowalmostremediated.BySeptember2022,hydrogenerationwasbacktothelevelsseenin3hasstartedwithhydrostocksonlyslightlylowerthanthehistoricalaverages.TheshortfallTheshortfallinhydropowerTheshortfallinnuclearpoweroutagesand27%ofitwasasaresultofGermannuclearplants.InarecordnumberofFrenchnuclearreactorswentoffline,resultinginthelowestoutputin30years.Thiswas82TWhbelow2021levels,leadingtoa22%mprovedtowardstheendoftheyearwhenaslewofreactorsreturnedtothemarket.ByJanuarythof%oftotalcapacitywasoperational(44GW),comparedtojust48%onaverageacross2022.AprilTheshortfallTheshortfallinhydropowerTwo-thirdsofFrance’snuclearandhydroshortfallwasmadeupbyothercountriesFranceishistoricallythebiggestexporterofelectricityinEurope.However,forthefirsttimesinceatleast2000,FrancebecameanetimporterwithtotalflowsetimportersfromFrancetonetexporterstoFranceforthefirsttimesinceatleastyearnuclearandhydrogenerationwasreplacedbyimportedelectricityfromcontributedtosomeoftheriseinGermancoalgeneration.Withthesechanges,2022highlightedhowimportantinterconnectorsarehelpingtoachievesecurityofsupply.TheshortfallTheshortfallinhydropowerGas-to-coalswitchingplayedlittleroleincoal’srisein2022risein2022.Gasgenerationfor2022asawholewasalmostunchanged(+0.8%)omJulywhenRussiafirstbegancurtailingEuropeangasflowsthegaspricerosesignificantlyabovecoal.Thisledtoswitchingfromgastohardcoalgenerationin2021.Consequently,therewaslittlecoal-gasswitchingin2022,becausemostofithadalreadyhappened.TheTheshortfallinhydropowerReactivatedcoalunitsbarelyimpactedtheEU’scoalgenerationcompelledtoactivatetemporaryemergencymeasurestoensureenergysecurity,especiallyforthiscurrentwinter.Theseincludedthecreationofstrategicreservesremainoperationalbeyondscheduledshutdowndatesormothballedplantstobeplacedonstandby.TheshortfallTheshortfallinhydropowertheoorremaininthemarketThesencountrieswithinGermanyTheaverageutilisationoftheunitsduringthisperiodwasjust18%.Sincecomingbackonline,thesegenerationinGermanylpowerrosebyTWhinsoonlyofthisrisecanbeattributedtothereactivationofthesecoalunits.movedJunerevokinganorderfromDecember2021thatlimitedcoalplantsto35%capacity.Sincethen,thefourremainingDutchcoalplantshavegeneratedathecapacityoverthesameperiodinInItalyoncoalplantswereliftedinAugustlastinguntilMarchTherewasnoobservablechangesincethisdecree—coalunitsranatanaverageof30%capacityin2022,thesameasin2021.Two-thirdsofthesurgeinimportedcoalwasstockpiled,notburntUincreasedbyinasEuropesoughttoin2022.However,RussiancoalimportswerebannedinAugust2022,resultinginangerpickupincoalimportsfromothercountriesImportsfromSouthAfricaewaslargeitledtosomewildlyexaggeratedclaimsInJuneeitscoalproductiontargetfollowingasupposedrequestfromGermanytobuyupBerlinstatedthefigurewasonly5-6Mt.urnediesitshardcoalplantshatwasimportedwasburned.Theremainingtwo-thirdsoftheextracoalimportedwasimplicitlyaddedtostockpiles.TheshortfallTheshortfallinhydropowerthiswinterwithextrahighstockpilesThiswasincasetherewasanemergencyinthegassystemduringwinter,althoughingupWithEurope’scoalphase-outisstillverymuchaliventsisonlyatemporaryemergencymeasureThemajorityofcoalunitsinreservefacilitieshaveonlybeengrantedpermissiontocontinuetiltheendofMarchGermanyisallowingitsemergencyreserveplantstobeavailableuntilMarch2024butremainsfirmlycommittedtoitscoalexitplan.Thegovernmenthasreiterated,happensin2030.”RWEhasmadethisevenmoreofarealitybyagreeingtophaseoutallofitscoalplantseightyearsearlierthanexpected,in—2030insteadof2038.Romaniaalsomoveditscoalexitdateforwardfrom2032to2030.20TheNetherlandsandCzechiaarenotamendingtheirrespectivecoalphase-outfandFranceisonlyallowingtheEmileHuchetunitMWanttethatEuropehasnointentionofreturningtocoalTheconsensusinEuropeisthattheonlywaytopermanentlyextricateitselffromthecostandsecuritycrisesitfacesistogetoffallfossilfuels,bothcoalandgas,andtodosoasquicklyaspossible.Towardstheendof2022,theEUsawafallinelectricitydemandonthesamescalewitnessedduringthedeepestCovid-19lockdowns.Itwasthereasonwhycoalandgelectricitydemandwillbeamajorthemeintoandmoreworkisneededtounderstandhowstructuralthisdemandshiftis,orifwecanexpecttoseeareboundlikewiththeeconomicrecoveryfromtheCovid-19pandemic.2022,closeinscaletothatwitnessedduringthemostextremelockdowns,whendemandfellby10.2%inQ22020.ElectricitydemandintheEUforOctoberdroppedby10%,Novemberby9%andDecemberby7%year-on-year.Althoughthesewerelessthanthefallsingasdemand,whichwere25%inOctoberand23%inNovember,thedecreasesinelectricitydemandnecessitateacloserlook.oberNovemberandDecemberin2022werewarmerby1.9,0.8and0.9degreescelsiusrespectivelyacrossEuropecomparedtoHowevertemperatureexplainsonlypartofthiscitydemandinthelastquarteroftheyearoccurredatasimilarUcountriesLikewisethemajorityofcountrieshadnotseenaTheTheshortfallinhydropowerThe8%dropinelectricitydemandinQ42022wastheprimaryfactorinthe9%onfellforfourconsecutivemonths,andgasgenerationfortwo.ThiswasdespiteFrenchnucleartwiceasfastby%inQ4.Whatdoesthedemandfalltellus?lindemandareclearIncidentalactionsreducingelectricitydemandoverthewinterhavebeenmuchdiscussedinthepressandelsewhere,butdetailedquantificationischallenging.SomeofthereductionmaybeattributedtoinvestmentsintoefficiencySometoreductionsinindustrialandwithcostoftisvoluntaryaswellassomemandatedelectricitydemandreductionsintroducedforthewinterbytheEuropeanCommissioninSeptemberTheshortfallTheshortfallinhydropowerongevityoftheshiftindemandWhentheEuropeanCommissionandtheIEAanalysedthewaystourgentlyreduceRussiangasimportsin2022,itwasassumedthatbehaviourchangerelatedtoenergyssuchasturningdownheatingthermostatswouldbetemporaryandnotsustainedinto2023.TherearemultipleuncertaintiesrelatedtoforecastingfuturendWillsummerequallyseeshiftsindemandwithchangestoairconditioninguse?Willthereductionsgrowaselectricitybillsrisefurtherin2023,orcouldelectricitydemandisunprecedented,buttheseuncertaintiescomplicateplanningintotheyearsahead.Whatisalreadyevidentthoughisthatthecrisiswillspurfasterelectrification.Heathalfof2022,EVsalesarehighandrising,andhydrogenelectrolyserssawastepchangein2022.ThisshiftmayaddtoelectricitydemandfasterthisdecadethantspreviouslythoughtOnethingiscertainthecurrentlullinelectricityemandmustnotbeanexcusetoslowdowntherolloutofcleanenergyInsight3:SolarshieldedEuropefromtheenergycrisisheresultinggasshortagesandall-time-highfossilfuelpricespushingthecontinenteliveredthroughtheenergycrunchforthefirsttimegeneratingmorethanafifthofEUelectricityin2022(22%),itwassolarpowerthatreallyshined,settingelectricitygenerationrecordsandsavingbillionsinimportedgascosts.SolarsetgenerationrecordsacrossthecontinentTheyear2022sawthelargesteverabsoluteincreaseinsolarelectricitygeneration.cityfromGWtoGWNewinstallations24frominforthefirstsummerinhistory.Thesefourmonthsweresweltering,settingnewtemperaturerecordsAshydrogenerationfellshortduetothedroughtandnuclearoutputwascutbecauseofwatertemperatureconstraints,solarreliablydelivered.TwoTwo-thirdsofthesurgeinimportedcoalwasstockpiled,notburntEffectivepoliciesdrovesolargrowthTheNetherlandswastheunquestionablesolarenergyleaderof2022,generating14%ofitselectricityfromthesunandsurpassingpreviousleaderSpain,typicallyesolargenerationinboththeNetherlandsandGreecesurpassedthatofcoalgeneration.Overall,twentyEUcountriessetnewsolarsharerecordsin2022.Forsolarcapacityadditions,thetopfivecountrieswereGermany(7.9GW),25TheNetherlandshasdemonstratedhowsimpleandeffectivepoliciesdrivesolargrowth.Since2020,ithasbeensupportingresidentialsolarthroughnet-metering.withonemillionconsumerstakingpartinenergycooperatives.Commercialandutility-scalesolararesubsidisedbyatenderingscheme,with2.3GWoftheseprojectsapplyingforfinancingin2022alone.TheTheshortfallinhydropowerThesesupportivepoliciesledtosubstantialgrowthinDutchsolargeneration:asgridcongestion,arebeingswiftlyremovedbythegovernment.TheNetherlandslardeploymentisexpectedtoremainstrongwithanGWlarge-scaleprojectpipelineandannualcapacityadditionsexpectedtostayaboveGWuntil.Aspectacularexampleofthestrengthofrenewablesin2022alsocamefromGreece,wheretheelectricitygridransolelyonrenewablesforfivehoursinleaderboard.Greeceaddedarecord1.3GWinsolarcapacity,partlyasaresultofgionsinEuropegridcongestionisemergingasamajorbottleneckandngitthroughagridexpansionplanandasupportschemeystorageunitsThesolarprojectpipelineisalsostrongwitharoundGWofsolarprojectsauctionedin2022alone.Greeceisexpectedtoreachits2030Europeancitizenssteppedup,deployingrooftopsolaratscaleacceleratingclimatepoliciesandcuttingbothelectricitydemandandRussianedEuropeanhouseholdsmassivelyinvestedinrooftopsolarpanels,adding25GWininstalledsolarcapacityof209GW.mprovidedfreesolarpanelstohouseholdswhocouldnotaffordthemandlstatesinGermanyintroducedarooftopsolarobligationonnewbuildingsTheEuropeanCommissionpublisheditsEUSolarEnergyStrategy,aimingtoovercomeworkforcebottlenecks,acceleraterooftopsolardeploymentandstreamlinepermitting.SolaravoidedSolaravoidedbillionsingasimportcostsKeepingthesolarmomentumgoingThefutureisevenbrighterSeveralgovernmentsalsoraisedtheir2030renewableenergytargetsin2022,IrelandtheNetherlandsandPortugalSolaravoidedbillionsingasimportcostsWithouttherecordsolargenerationofTWhtheEUwouldhaverequiredanadditional35billioncubicmetres(bcm)ofgasimportstoproducethatelectricitysinApplyingtheaverageEuropeanbenchmarkTTFgaspriceforof21/MWh,thisequatesto€49billioninavoidedgascosts.Theyear-on-yearsolarwthofTWhalonedeliveredsavingsofbcmandbilliondimplementsnewasterdeploymentAsEmberspreviousresearchshows,permittingtimesforsolarinsomeEUcountriesaredoublethetwoyearlimitsetintheRenewableEnergyDirective.TheEuropeanCouncilapprovedtemporaryemergencymeasurestolimitpermittingtimesinDecember2022.FutureamendmentstotheRenewableEnergyDirectivemustalsoaddressakeybottleneckforindustrialscalesolar:gridconnectiontimes.In2022,manyEUcountriesdemonstratedthatrooftopsolarcanramp-upatspeed.gsxistingnonresidentialbuildingsWhilethiswouldbeasubstantialinitiativethesetargetsbuildonthosealreadysetintheHYPERLINK"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM%3A2022%3A221%3AFIN