隆達股份-高溫合金后起之秀破繭成蝶開啟新篇章

1指標2020A2021A2022E2023E2024E營業(yè)收入(百萬元)增速(%)歸母凈利潤(百萬元)增速(%)每股收益(元)市盈率(倍)-4.61%255.45%0.14277.6934.49%0.280.6757.9147.79%87.29%30.922,19724.04%44542.67%21.67??””鑄造高溫合金母合金高溫合金及耐蝕合金變形高溫合金鎳基耐蝕合金銅鎳合金管高鐵地線合金管合鑄造高溫合金母合金高溫合金及耐蝕合金變形高溫合金鎳基耐蝕合金銅鎳合金管高鐵地線合金管合金管材高效管黃銅管紫銅管合金類別產(chǎn)品類別產(chǎn)品圖片下游領域航空航天、燃氣輪機、核電、汽車渦輪、醫(yī)療器械等航空航天、燃氣輪機、能源、石油、化工、核工業(yè)船舶、電力、石油化工船舶、石油化工、能源軌道交通船舶、石油化工、能源船舶、海水淡化、航空船舶、電力、家電100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%65.144.313.343.603.40100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%65.144.313.343.603.400.5754321020182019202020212018201920202021營業(yè)總收入(億元)銷售毛利率(右軸)合金管材高溫耐蝕合金合金管材增速高溫耐蝕合金增速225%720%5.3918.0%2%1065439%5.825.667.26%8Wind.6.2%35.0%43.8%5%0%25%20%30.8%30.5%29.5%28.8%25.6%20.7%..0%.6.2%35.0%43.8%5%0%25%20%30.8%30.5%29.5%28.8%25.6%20.7%..0%2018201920202021合金管材鑄造高溫合金變形高溫合金鎳基耐蝕合金9%6.7%4.4%3.8%2.2%1.6%4.7%6.7%4.4%3.8%2.2%1.6%4.7%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%%46.9%57.7%66.6%90.0%73.7%63.4%51.5%48.7%40.4%29.4%90%0%0%60%50%40%30%20%%20182019202020212018201920202021.33 歸母凈利潤(百萬元)銷售凈利率(右軸) 9.7%6.3%33.84%4%%%%6%018-3.6%-21.14019-3.8%-21.32021020004000Wind項目擬使用募集資金(億元)建設期具體內容新增年產(chǎn)1萬噸航空級高溫合金的技術改造項目8.553年新增年產(chǎn)高品質高溫合金1萬噸的生產(chǎn)規(guī)模，其中包括變形高溫合金6000噸、變形高溫合金棒材2000噸、鑄造高溫合金母合金2000噸新建研發(fā)中心項目0.853年新增真空感應熔煉爐、感應退火爐、直讀光譜儀、X射線熒光光譜儀、電感耦合等離子體質譜儀、氧氮氫分析儀等研發(fā)和檢測設備98臺套補充流動資金0.60/擬全部用于公司的主營業(yè)務合計10.0--200002000000400000002020A2021A2022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E鑄造高溫合金及鎳基耐蝕合金變形高溫合金高溫耐蝕合金2026E2028EWind???公司高溫合金產(chǎn)能產(chǎn)品特點在建產(chǎn)能撫順特鋼5000變形高溫合金，軍品占比高，批量大，結構簡單“均質高強度大規(guī)格高溫合金、超高強度鋼工程化建設項目”和“高溫合金、高強鋼產(chǎn)業(yè)化技術改造項目”預計在2022年下半年投產(chǎn)，屆時公司高溫合金產(chǎn)能有望達到1萬噸達股份5000鑄造高溫合金、變形高溫合金，民品占比高，尚處于小批量生產(chǎn)階段1、高溫合金業(yè)務仍處于導入期，待公司設備調試投產(chǎn)后，預計公司變形和鑄造高溫合金產(chǎn)能將在短期內分別增加2000噸和1000噸；2、2022年IPO募投建設變形高溫合金6000噸、變形高溫合金棒材2000噸和鑄造高溫合金母合金2000噸，建設期3年，達產(chǎn)期3年。部超導2000高性能高溫合金鑄錠產(chǎn)能2600噸，鎳基高溫合金棒材產(chǎn)能2000噸，尚處于小批量生產(chǎn)階段1、2019年IPO募投建設年產(chǎn)鎳基高溫合金棒材1900噸和粉末高溫合金母合金600噸項目，建設期2年，2、2021年募投建設1500噸高溫合金產(chǎn)能，建設期3鋼研高納000鑄造、變形、新型高溫合金，以高溫合金棒材及粉末高溫合金母合金為主，批量小，結構復雜“青島新力通新廠(北區(qū))建設項目”為實現(xiàn)滿足石化爐管、乙烯裂解爐抗結焦爐管的規(guī)模生產(chǎn)，項目設計新增年產(chǎn)能7000噸，預計2021年6月試生產(chǎn)，達產(chǎn)期5年寶武特冶民品占比高攀鋼長城特鋼鑄造高溫合金、變形高溫合金，批量小，結構復雜2020年IPO募投建設年產(chǎn)1000噸超純凈高性能高溫合金材料和年產(chǎn)3300件復雜薄壁高溫合金結構件項目院金屬所鑄造、變形、定向凝固以及單晶高溫合金，研究為主北京航材院00造、粉末、金屬間化合物高溫合金，研究為主400航空發(fā)動機及汽車增壓器用鑄造高溫合金母合金、燃氣輪機葉片、玻璃棉噴催離心器Wind35.7%11.7%104.2%73.1%26.4%27.7%196.7%66.1%銷量YOY4.335.7%11.7%104.2%73.1%26.4%27.7%196.7%66.1%銷量YOY4.3%營收YOY12.4%單價YOY銷量(噸)6049133223221503161150201920202021撫順特鋼鋼研高納圖南股份西部超導隆達股份Wind公司產(chǎn)品單價(萬元/噸)撫順特鋼溫合金21.708%9%8%9%4%3%0%鋼研高納有色金屬冶煉及壓延加工15.03-6圖南股份有色金屬冶煉及壓延加工21.66西部超導溫合金20.2045隆達股份溫合金19.02-4Wind-10%-20%-30%撫順特鋼鋼研高納-10%-20%-30%撫順特鋼鋼研高納圖南股份2018201920202021隆達股份導40%%Wind45%40%35%30%46.4%43.9%46.2%30.8%38.5%39.1%30.5%30.1%28.8%29.5%45%40%35%30%46.4%43.9%46.2%30.8%38.5%39.1%30.5%30.1%28.8%29.5%%%2018201920202021航空航天燃氣輪機汽車渦輪銷售毛利率27.9%27.9%Wind航天航天其他1%5%汽車36%民用航空2%燃氣輪機7%軍用航空21%核電8%90%80%70%60%50%40%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%% 9.8%25.6%15.3%50.2%36.6%24.8%24.9%31.6%32.8%52.2%37.8%2018201920202021310058963810000800058366000468741273991400020000201820192020202127942973301060005463 5000400060005463 5000400020009122861140戰(zhàn)斗機特種飛機加油機運輸機直升機教練機3 30002660274039962798274飛機類型配備發(fā)動機發(fā)動機重量(噸)發(fā)動機數(shù)量(臺/架)高溫合金占比部件成材率未來20年交付數(shù)量(架)高溫合金需求50座支線飛機(ARJ21、新舟600等)CF34-10A2.5245%30%9537148120座單通道飛機(C919)長江-10004.0250%30%629583933250座雙通道噴氣客機(CR929)長江-20006.0250%30%36720換裝需求53361合計281162使用領域燃氣輪機重量)燃氣輪機數(shù)量(臺/艘)高溫合金占比部件成材率每年交付數(shù)量)國產(chǎn)替代比例高溫合金需求)大型艦艇*330%30%*40%1260中小型艦艇*330%30%*40%1680艦艇維護294地面燃氣輪機809合計4043Wind年份汽車產(chǎn)量同比增速裝配率高溫合金單位需求(噸/萬輛)高溫合金需求預測(噸)同比增速.2%7.5%9%.0%%9.1%產(chǎn)品分類20182019202020212022E2023E2024E銷量(噸)高溫合金鎳基耐蝕合金合金管材3273069235571232798393163071137854403528711467858800340237448793460單價(萬元/噸)高溫合金鎳基耐蝕合金合金管材10.77.15.619.15.25.419.86.75.319.08.86.620.910.67.622.011.48.023.112.08.4單噸成本(萬元)高溫合金鎳基耐蝕合金合金管材7.45.95.113.33.95.014.15.34.713.47.35.914.38.66.714.88.97.015.19.17.3單噸毛利(萬元)高溫合金鎳基耐蝕合金合金管材3.30.45.80.45.70.65.60.76.62.00.97.22.68.03.0指標2020A2021A2022E2023E2024E營業(yè)收入(百萬元)5407261,1981,7712,197增速(%增速(%)歸母凈利潤(百萬元)增速(%)每股收益(元)市盈率(倍)-4.61%35255.45%0.14277.6934.49%70102.09%0.28137.41137.29%0.6757.9147.79%31287.29%.2630.9224.04%44542.67%.8021.67所處領域證券代碼證券名稱收盤價總市值(億元)PE(TTM)(2021)PEG(2021)歸母凈利潤(百萬元)PEPB(MRQ)2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024E高溫合金600399.SH撫順特鋼19.5384.655.32.679081,3031,69242.429.522.76.47300034.SZ鋼研高納44.8217.870.21.5041256276152.938.728.67.48300855.SZ圖南股份45.7137.974.31.9023732141058.242.933.610.82688122.SH西部超導98.8458.655.41.329991,3631,75945.933.626.18.22平均值1.8549.836.227.88.25?????資產(chǎn)負債表利潤表會計年度2019202020212022E2023E2024E會計年度2019202020212022E2023E2024E貨幣資金應收票據(jù)及賬款預付賬款其他應收款存貨其他流動資產(chǎn)流動資產(chǎn)總計長期股權投資固定資產(chǎn)在建工程無形資產(chǎn)長期待攤費用其他非流動資產(chǎn)非流動資產(chǎn)合計資產(chǎn)總計短期借款應付票據(jù)及賬款其他流動負債流動負債合計長期借款其他非流動負債非流動負債合計負債合計股本資本公積留存收益歸屬母公司權益少數(shù)股東權益股東權益合計負債和股東權益合計現(xiàn)金流量表68.585.713.508.2897.1224.62497.810.007.242.03874.3344328.91826.72300.5879.1983.46463.230.0084.0584.05547.282.20269.52-132.28279.440.00279.44826.7296.680.002.241.9828.32421.060.00249.326.56554.0752450.02871.080.671.8647.47330.000294.970.00439.995.14231.4946431.090.00431.09871.0889.41235.336.69231.5757583.890.00444.6165.85777.5023.36555.09138.98304.462.3264.64501.4236.1097.823.91635.335.14234.0784.43503.640.00503.64138.982336.90377.609.853.280.000.202727.830.00556.990.006.893.7525.00742.623470.450.002.4558.87251.3136.101.007.10388.41246.862584.15251.033082.040.003082.043470.452425.66553.19564.850.000.202998.460.00706.520.000.000.0028.00884.523882.980.00260.5885.24345.8236.107.003.10488.91246.862584.15563.063394.070.003394.073882.982692.54680.14066.020.000.203396.950.00809.040.000.000.0032.00991.044388.000.00294.064.59398.6536.104.000.10548.75246.862584.15008.243839.250.003839.254388.00營業(yè)收入營業(yè)成本營業(yè)稅金及附加銷售費用管理費用研發(fā)費用財務費用資產(chǎn)減值損失信用減值損失其他經(jīng)營損益投資收益公允價值變動損益資產(chǎn)處置收益其他收益營業(yè)利潤營業(yè)外收入營業(yè)外支出其他非經(jīng)營損益利潤總額所得稅凈利潤少數(shù)股東損益歸屬母公司股東凈EBITDANOPLATEPS(元)主要財務比率會計年度成長能力營收增長率營業(yè)利潤增長率EBIT增長率EBITDA增長率歸母凈利潤增長率經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流增長率盈利能力毛利率凈利率營業(yè)利潤率ROEROAROIC估值倍數(shù)P/EP/SP/B股息率EV/EBITEV/EBITDAEV/NOPLAT565.72494.788846.7234.8520-0.372.520.000.300.16-1.3687-23.290.690.00-24.27-1.92-22.350.00-22.35-8.94-0.09539.66442.472.089.7834.8735.328.14-0.46-0.580.00-0.970.10-0.3329.5534.295.990.530.0039.755.0134.740.0034.7461.2937.280.14725.78581.595028.6252.679.66-0.56-4.110.00-0.470.000.3034.4565.64410.0075.004.7970.210.0070.213.9270.210.28198.46900.552.6426.3743.1487.494.14-0.96-5.990.000.000.100.2041.008.49500.007.99396.600.006.60296.231.300.67771.19268.153.7238.0856.689.30-6.57-1.42-8.860.000.000.100.2052.00323.86500.00333.3621.34312.030.00312.03487.90296.702196.91511.734.3946.1465.910.37-7.20-1.76-10.980.000.000.100.2063.00466.13500.00475.6330.44445.190.00445.19665.90429.282019202020212022E2023E2024E-2.81%-128.44%-56498.85%-89.51%-5.70%40.05%.54%-3.95%-4.12%-8.00%-2.70%-1.84%-431.680534.520.00%-484.174527.28-653.44-4.61%496.66%4647.36%255.45%-289.92%.01%6.44%6.35%8.06%3.99%6.57%277.698822.380.00%4.070.387.8934.49%76.80%85.87%02.09%-292.07%.87%9.67%9.04%.94%6.16%.24%7.4129150.00%89.2966.357.6765.13%156.71