隆達(dá)股份-高溫合金后起之秀破繭成蝶開(kāi)啟新篇章

1指標(biāo)2020A2021A2022E2023E2024E營(yíng)業(yè)收入(百萬(wàn)元)增速(%)歸母凈利潤(rùn)(百萬(wàn)元)增速(%)每股收益(元)市盈率(倍)-4.61%255.45%0.14277.6934.49%0.280.6757.9147.79%87.29%30.922,19724.04%44542.67%21.67??””鑄造高溫合金母合金高溫合金及耐蝕合金變形高溫合金鎳基耐蝕合金銅鎳合金管高鐵地線合金管合鑄造高溫合金母合金高溫合金及耐蝕合金變形高溫合金鎳基耐蝕合金銅鎳合金管高鐵地線合金管合金管材高效管黃銅管紫銅管合金類別產(chǎn)品類別產(chǎn)品圖片下游領(lǐng)域航空航天、燃?xì)廨啓C(jī)、核電、汽車渦輪、醫(yī)療器械等航空航天、燃?xì)廨啓C(jī)、能源、石油、化工、核工業(yè)船舶、電力、石油化工船舶、石油化工、能源軌道交通船舶、石油化工、能源船舶、海水淡化、航空船舶、電力、家電100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%65.144.313.343.603.40100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%65.144.313.343.603.400.5754321020182019202020212018201920202021營(yíng)業(yè)總收入(億元)銷售毛利率(右軸)合金管材高溫耐蝕合金合金管材增速高溫耐蝕合金增速225%720%5.3918.0%2%1065439%5.825.667.26%8Wind.6.2%35.0%43.8%5%0%25%20%30.8%30.5%29.5%28.8%25.6%20.7%..0%.6.2%35.0%43.8%5%0%25%20%30.8%30.5%29.5%28.8%25.6%20.7%..0%2018201920202021合金管材鑄造高溫合金變形高溫合金鎳基耐蝕合金9%6.7%4.4%3.8%2.2%1.6%4.7%6.7%4.4%3.8%2.2%1.6%4.7%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%%46.9%57.7%66.6%90.0%73.7%63.4%51.5%48.7%40.4%29.4%90%0%0%60%50%40%30%20%%20182019202020212018201920202021.33 歸母凈利潤(rùn)(百萬(wàn)元)銷售凈利率(右軸) 9.7%6.3%33.84%4%%%%6%018-3.6%-21.14019-3.8%-21.32021020004000Wind項(xiàng)目擬使用募集資金(億元)建設(shè)期具體內(nèi)容新增年產(chǎn)1萬(wàn)噸航空級(jí)高溫合金的技術(shù)改造項(xiàng)目8.553年新增年產(chǎn)高品質(zhì)高溫合金1萬(wàn)噸的生產(chǎn)規(guī)模，其中包括變形高溫合金6000噸、變形高溫合金棒材2000噸、鑄造高溫合金母合金2000噸新建研發(fā)中心項(xiàng)目0.853年新增真空感應(yīng)熔煉爐、感應(yīng)退火爐、直讀光譜儀、X射線熒光光譜儀、電感耦合等離子體質(zhì)譜儀、氧氮?dú)浞治鰞x等研發(fā)和檢測(cè)設(shè)備98臺(tái)套補(bǔ)充流動(dòng)資金0.60/擬全部用于公司的主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)合計(jì)10.0--200002000000400000002020A2021A2022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E鑄造高溫合金及鎳基耐蝕合金變形高溫合金高溫耐蝕合金2026E2028EWind???公司高溫合金產(chǎn)能產(chǎn)品特點(diǎn)在建產(chǎn)能撫順特鋼5000變形高溫合金，軍品占比高，批量大，結(jié)構(gòu)簡(jiǎn)單“均質(zhì)高強(qiáng)度大規(guī)格高溫合金、超高強(qiáng)度鋼工程化建設(shè)項(xiàng)目”和“高溫合金、高強(qiáng)鋼產(chǎn)業(yè)化技術(shù)改造項(xiàng)目”預(yù)計(jì)在2022年下半年投產(chǎn)，屆時(shí)公司高溫合金產(chǎn)能有望達(dá)到1萬(wàn)噸達(dá)股份5000鑄造高溫合金、變形高溫合金，民品占比高，尚處于小批量生產(chǎn)階段1、高溫合金業(yè)務(wù)仍處于導(dǎo)入期，待公司設(shè)備調(diào)試投產(chǎn)后，預(yù)計(jì)公司變形和鑄造高溫合金產(chǎn)能將在短期內(nèi)分別增加2000噸和1000噸；2、2022年IPO募投建設(shè)變形高溫合金6000噸、變形高溫合金棒材2000噸和鑄造高溫合金母合金2000噸，建設(shè)期3年，達(dá)產(chǎn)期3年。部超導(dǎo)2000高性能高溫合金鑄錠產(chǎn)能2600噸，鎳基高溫合金棒材產(chǎn)能2000噸，尚處于小批量生產(chǎn)階段1、2019年IPO募投建設(shè)年產(chǎn)鎳基高溫合金棒材1900噸和粉末高溫合金母合金600噸項(xiàng)目，建設(shè)期2年，2、2021年募投建設(shè)1500噸高溫合金產(chǎn)能，建設(shè)期3鋼研高納000鑄造、變形、新型高溫合金，以高溫合金棒材及粉末高溫合金母合金為主，批量小，結(jié)構(gòu)復(fù)雜“青島新力通新廠(北區(qū))建設(shè)項(xiàng)目”為實(shí)現(xiàn)滿足石化爐管、乙烯裂解爐抗結(jié)焦?fàn)t管的規(guī)模生產(chǎn)，項(xiàng)目設(shè)計(jì)新增年產(chǎn)能7000噸，預(yù)計(jì)2021年6月試生產(chǎn)，達(dá)產(chǎn)期5年寶武特冶民品占比高攀鋼長(zhǎng)城特鋼鑄造高溫合金、變形高溫合金，批量小，結(jié)構(gòu)復(fù)雜2020年IPO募投建設(shè)年產(chǎn)1000噸超純凈高性能高溫合金材料和年產(chǎn)3300件復(fù)雜薄壁高溫合金結(jié)構(gòu)件項(xiàng)目院金屬所鑄造、變形、定向凝固以及單晶高溫合金，研究為主北京航材院00造、粉末、金屬間化合物高溫合金，研究為主400航空發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)及汽車增壓器用鑄造高溫合金母合金、燃?xì)廨啓C(jī)葉片、玻璃棉噴催離心器Wind35.7%11.7%104.2%73.1%26.4%27.7%196.7%66.1%銷量YOY4.335.7%11.7%104.2%73.1%26.4%27.7%196.7%66.1%銷量YOY4.3%營(yíng)收YOY12.4%單價(jià)YOY銷量(噸)6049133223221503161150201920202021撫順特鋼鋼研高納圖南股份西部超導(dǎo)隆達(dá)股份Wind公司產(chǎn)品單價(jià)(萬(wàn)元/噸)撫順特鋼溫合金21.708%9%8%9%4%3%0%鋼研高納有色金屬冶煉及壓延加工15.03-6圖南股份有色金屬冶煉及壓延加工21.66西部超導(dǎo)溫合金20.2045隆達(dá)股份溫合金19.02-4Wind-10%-20%-30%撫順特鋼鋼研高納-10%-20%-30%撫順特鋼鋼研高納圖南股份2018201920202021隆達(dá)股份導(dǎo)40%%Wind45%40%35%30%46.4%43.9%46.2%30.8%38.5%39.1%30.5%30.1%28.8%29.5%45%40%35%30%46.4%43.9%46.2%30.8%38.5%39.1%30.5%30.1%28.8%29.5%%%2018201920202021航空航天燃?xì)廨啓C(jī)汽車渦輪銷售毛利率27.9%27.9%Wind航天航天其他1%5%汽車36%民用航空2%燃?xì)廨啓C(jī)7%軍用航空21%核電8%90%80%70%60%50%40%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%% 9.8%25.6%15.3%50.2%36.6%24.8%24.9%31.6%32.8%52.2%37.8%2018201920202021310058963810000800058366000468741273991400020000201820192020202127942973301060005463 5000400060005463 5000400020009122861140戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)特種飛機(jī)加油機(jī)運(yùn)輸機(jī)直升機(jī)教練機(jī)3 30002660274039962798274飛機(jī)類型配備發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)重量(噸)發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)數(shù)量(臺(tái)/架)高溫合金占比部件成材率未來(lái)20年交付數(shù)量(架)高溫合金需求50座支線飛機(jī)(ARJ21、新舟600等)CF34-10A2.5245%30%9537148120座單通道飛機(jī)(C919)長(zhǎng)江-10004.0250%30%629583933250座雙通道噴氣客機(jī)(CR929)長(zhǎng)江-20006.0250%30%36720換裝需求53361合計(jì)281162使用領(lǐng)域燃?xì)廨啓C(jī)重量)燃?xì)廨啓C(jī)數(shù)量(臺(tái)/艘)高溫合金占比部件成材率每年交付數(shù)量)國(guó)產(chǎn)替代比例高溫合金需求)大型艦艇*330%30%*40%1260中小型艦艇*330%30%*40%1680艦艇維護(hù)294地面燃?xì)廨啓C(jī)809合計(jì)4043Wind年份汽車產(chǎn)量同比增速裝配率高溫合金單位需求(噸/萬(wàn)輛)高溫合金需求預(yù)測(cè)(噸)同比增速.2%7.5%9%.0%%9.1%產(chǎn)品分類20182019202020212022E2023E2024E銷量(噸)高溫合金鎳基耐蝕合金合金管材3273069235571232798393163071137854403528711467858800340237448793460單價(jià)(萬(wàn)元/噸)高溫合金鎳基耐蝕合金合金管材10.77.15.619.15.25.419.86.75.319.08.86.620.910.67.622.011.48.023.112.08.4單噸成本(萬(wàn)元)高溫合金鎳基耐蝕合金合金管材7.45.95.113.33.95.014.15.34.713.47.35.914.38.66.714.88.97.015.19.17.3單噸毛利(萬(wàn)元)高溫合金鎳基耐蝕合金合金管材3.30.45.80.45.70.65.60.76.62.00.97.22.68.03.0指標(biāo)2020A2021A2022E2023E2024E營(yíng)業(yè)收入(百萬(wàn)元)5407261,1981,7712,197增速(%增速(%)歸母凈利潤(rùn)(百萬(wàn)元)增速(%)每股收益(元)市盈率(倍)-4.61%35255.45%0.14277.6934.49%70102.09%0.28137.41137.29%0.6757.9147.79%31287.29%.2630.9224.04%44542.67%.8021.67所處領(lǐng)域證券代碼證券名稱收盤(pán)價(jià)總市值(億元)PE(TTM)(2021)PEG(2021)歸母凈利潤(rùn)(百萬(wàn)元)PEPB(MRQ)2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024E高溫合金600399.SH撫順特鋼19.5384.655.32.679081,3031,69242.429.522.76.47300034.SZ鋼研高納44.8217.870.21.5041256276152.938.728.67.48300855.SZ圖南股份45.7137.974.31.9023732141058.242.933.610.82688122.SH西部超導(dǎo)98.8458.655.41.329991,3631,75945.933.626.18.22平均值1.8549.836.227.88.25?????資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表利潤(rùn)表會(huì)計(jì)年度2019202020212022E2023E2024E會(huì)計(jì)年度2019202020212022E2023E2024E貨幣資金應(yīng)收票據(jù)及賬款預(yù)付賬款其他應(yīng)收款存貨其他流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)總計(jì)長(zhǎng)期股權(quán)投資固定資產(chǎn)在建工程無(wú)形資產(chǎn)長(zhǎng)期待攤費(fèi)用其他非流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)非流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)合計(jì)資產(chǎn)總計(jì)短期借款應(yīng)付票據(jù)及賬款其他流動(dòng)負(fù)債流動(dòng)負(fù)債合計(jì)長(zhǎng)期借款其他非流動(dòng)負(fù)債非流動(dòng)負(fù)債合計(jì)負(fù)債合計(jì)股本資本公積留存收益歸屬母公司權(quán)益少數(shù)股東權(quán)益股東權(quán)益合計(jì)負(fù)債和股東權(quán)益合計(jì)現(xiàn)金流量表68.585.713.508.2897.1224.62497.810.007.242.03874.3344328.91826.72300.5879.1983.46463.230.0084.0584.05547.282.20269.52-132.28279.440.00279.44826.7296.680.002.241.9828.32421.060.00249.326.56554.0752450.02871.080.671.8647.47330.000294.970.00439.995.14231.4946431.090.00431.09871.0889.41235.336.69231.5757583.890.00444.6165.85777.5023.36555.09138.98304.462.3264.64501.4236.1097.823.91635.335.14234.0784.43503.640.00503.64138.982336.90377.609.853.280.000.202727.830.00556.990.006.893.7525.00742.623470.450.002.4558.87251.3136.101.007.10388.41246.862584.15251.033082.040.003082.043470.452425.66553.19564.850.000.202998.460.00706.520.000.000.0028.00884.523882.980.00260.5885.24345.8236.107.003.10488.91246.862584.15563.063394.070.003394.073882.982692.54680.14066.020.000.203396.950.00809.040.000.000.0032.00991.044388.000.00294.064.59398.6536.104.000.10548.75246.862584.15008.243839.250.003839.254388.00營(yíng)業(yè)收入營(yíng)業(yè)成本營(yíng)業(yè)稅金及附加銷售費(fèi)用管理費(fèi)用研發(fā)費(fèi)用財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用資產(chǎn)減值損失信用減值損失其他經(jīng)營(yíng)損益投資收益公允價(jià)值變動(dòng)損益資產(chǎn)處置收益其他收益營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)營(yíng)業(yè)外收入營(yíng)業(yè)外支出其他非經(jīng)營(yíng)損益利潤(rùn)總額所得稅凈利潤(rùn)少數(shù)股東損益歸屬母公司股東凈EBITDANOPLATEPS(元)主要財(cái)務(wù)比率會(huì)計(jì)年度成長(zhǎng)能力營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng)率營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)率EBIT增長(zhǎng)率EBITDA增長(zhǎng)率歸母凈利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)率經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流增長(zhǎng)率盈利能力毛利率凈利率營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)率ROEROAROIC估值倍數(shù)P/EP/SP/B股息率EV/EBITEV/EBITDAEV/NOPLAT565.72494.788846.7234.8520-0.372.520.000.300.16-1.3687-23.290.690.00-24.27-1.92-22.350.00-22.35-8.94-0.09539.66442.472.089.7834.8735.328.14-0.46-0.580.00-0.970.10-0.3329.5534.295.990.530.0039.755.0134.740.0034.7461.2937.280.14725.78581.595028.6252.679.66-0.56-4.110.00-0.470.000.3034.4565.64410.0075.004.7970.210.0070.213.9270.210.28198.46900.552.6426.3743.1487.494.14-0.96-5.990.000.000.100.2041.008.49500.007.99396.600.006.60296.231.300.67771.19268.153.7238.0856.689.30-6.57-1.42-8.860.000.000.100.2052.00323.86500.00333.3621.34312.030.00312.03487.90296.702196.91511.734.3946.1465.910.37-7.20-1.76-10.980.000.000.100.2063.00466.13500.00475.6330.44445.190.00445.19665.90429.282019202020212022E2023E2024E-2.81%-128.44%-56498.85%-89.51%-5.70%40.05%.54%-3.95%-4.12%-8.00%-2.70%-1.84%-431.680534.520.00%-484.174527.28-653.44-4.61%496.66%4647.36%255.45%-289.92%.01%6.44%6.35%8.06%3.99%6.57%277.698822.380.00%4.070.387.8934.49%76.80%85.87%02.09%-292.07%.87%9.67%9.04%.94%6.16%.24%7.4129150.00%89.2966.357.6765.13%156.71