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2022
THESTATEOF
AGRICULTURAL
COMMODITY
MARKETS
THEGEOGRAPHYOFFOOD
ANDAGRICULTURALTRADE:
POLICYAPPROACHES
FORSUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT
ThisflagshippublicationispartofTheStateoftheWorldseriesoftheFoodandAgricultureOrganization
oftheUnitedNations.
Requiredcitation:
FAO.2022.TheStateofAgriculturalCommodityMarkets2022.Thegeographyoffoodandagriculturaltrade:
Policyapproachesforsustainabledevelopment.Rome,FAO.
/10.4060/cc0471en
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ISSN2663-8207(print)
ISSN2663-8215(online)
ISBN978-92-5-136373-7
?FAO,2022
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THAILAND.RicefieldsinChiangMaiduringharvest.
ISSN2663-8207
THESTATEOF
AGRICULTURALCOMMODITYMARKETS
THEGEOGRAPHYOFFOODANDAGRICULTURALTRADE: POLICYAPPROACHESFORSUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations
Rome,2022
|ii|
CONTENTS
FOREWORDv
METHODOLOGYvii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSviii
ABBREVIATIONSANDACRONYMSix
EXECUTIVESUMMARYx
PART1
GLOBALANDREGIONALTRADENETWORKS1
KeyMessages1
Theglobalizationoffoodandagriculturaltrade1
Structuralchangesintheglobalnetworkof
foodandagriculturaltrade8
Fromglobalizationtoregionalization?9
Howresilientisglobalfoodandagricultural
tradetoshockstothesystem?17
PART2
THEFUNDAMENTALDRIVERSOFTRADE
INFOODANDAGRICULTURE25
Keymessages25
Whydocountriestrade?26
Comparativeadvantage,tradepolicies
andtradecosts30
Unpackingtheimpactofcomparative
advantageandtradecosts37
PART3
AGRICULTURALTRADEANDTHEENVIRONMENT49
KeyMessages49
Naturalresources,comparativeadvantage
andtrade50
Theroleoftradeinwaterandlanduse52
Thenegativeexternalitiesoftrade53
Tradeandtheenvironment:Policyresponses57
Theimpactofregionaltradeagreements
ontheenvironment67
PART4
THEAGRICULTURALTRADE
POLICYENVIRONMENT73
Keymessages73
Thelandscapeoftradepolicyinfood
andagriculture73
Thegainsfromtrade:Multilateraltrade
liberalizationandregionaltradeagreements79
Tradeandenvironmentalexternalities:
Multilateralandregionalpolicysolutions86
Sustainabledevelopmentandtheinterplay
betweenmultilateralismandregionalism90
NOTES
92
TABLES
31
2.1
Productivitydifferencesinagricultureand
non-agriculturesectorsbetweenthe10thand
90thpercentileoftheworldincomedistribution,
2019(constant2015USDperworker)
41
2.2
Thestrengthofcomparativeadvantagein
foodandagriculturalmarkets
65
3.1
Classificationofformatsoftheinclusionof
environment-relatedprovisionsinregionaltrade
agreements
70
81
3.2
Selectedexamplesofregionaltrade
agreementswithembeddedreferencesto
voluntarycertificationschemes
4.1
Scenarioassumptions
FIGURES
2
1.1Globalizationpatternsingoodsandservices,
1995–2020
3
1.2
Theevolutionofglobalfoodandagricultural
trade,1995–2020
|iii|
1.3
Averageconnectivitybetweencountriesin
theglobalfoodandagriculturaltradenetwork,
1995–2019
1.4
Theevolutionoffoodandagriculturaltrade
links,1995–2019
1.5
Foodandagriculturaltradeintensity,
1995and2019
1.6
Averageclosenessconnectivitybycountry
group,1995–2019
1.7
Thefoodandagriculturaltradenetworkand
tradehubsin1995and2019
1.8
Thedecentralizationoffoodandagricultural
tradelinks,1995–2019
1.9
Thetendencyoftradingfoodandagricultural
productswithinregionsandincomegroups,
1995–2019
1.10
Regionalfoodandagriculturaltradeclusters,
1995–2019
1.11
Thenumberofregionaltradeagreementsby
country,2022
1.12
Regionaltradeagreementsbetween
countriesbyregions(percent),2022
1.13
Foodandagriculturaltradewithinand
betweenregions,1995and2019
1.14
Distributionofconnectivityacrosscountries,
normalized,1995–2019
1.15
Distributionoftradeintensityacross
countries,normalized,1995–2019
1.16
Distributionofconnectivityacrossproducts
andcountries,normalized,1995–2019
1.17
Connectivityacrossproductsandcountries
atcountrylevel,2019
2.1
Productivityinagricultureandnon-agriculture
sectors,2019
2.2
AgriculturalproductivityandGrossDomestic
Productpercapita,2019
2.3
Appliedtariffsinagriculture,1995–1999and
2016–2020
4
6
7
8
9
10
12
13
14
15
16
18
19
20
21
31
32
35
2.4
Appliedtariffsinagricultureand
manufacturing,average2016–2020
2.5
Bilateraltradeflowsandrelativeprices
2.6
Countrycompetitivenessintheglobalfood
andagriculturalmarket,2018
2.7
Bilateraltradecostsaccordingtocountry
incomelevelclassification,selectedtrade
partnersandaveragecostspercountryincome
classification(advaloremequivalent),2017
2.8
Bilateraltradecostsandintraregional
averages(advaloremequivalent),2017
2.9
Tradeopenness,2018
2.10
Shareofimportsanddomesticproductionin
totalfoodconsumption,2018
3.1
Therelationshipbetweenwaterstressandnet
tradepositions,2018and2019
3.2
Relationshipbetweencroplandandnettrade
positions,2019
3.3
Evolutionofforestareainselectedcountries,
1990–2020
3.4
Agreementswithenvironment-related
provisions,1957–2019
3.5
Selectedagreementswitharangeoftypesof
environment-relatedprovisions
4.1
Multilateralliberalizationandintegration:
EffectsonGDP,foodsecurity,andfoodand
agriculturaltrade
4.2
LiberalizationandintegrationinAfrica:Effects
onGDP,foodsecurity,andfoodandagricultural
trade
4.3
LiberalizationandintegrationinAsiaand
Oceania:EffectsonGDP,foodsecurity,andfood
andagriculturaltrade
4.4
Intra-AfricanexportsandAfricanexportsto
otherregions,foodandagriculturalproducts,
2019
35
38
40
42
44
46
47
51
52
56
62
64
82
83
84
85
|iv|
CONTENTS
BOXES
1.1
Tradenetworkanalysis
1.2
Theroleofregionaltradeagreements
1.3
ThewarinUkraineandtheresilienceofthe
globalfoodandagriculturaltradenetwork
2.1
Absoluteadvantageandcomparative
advantageintrade
2.2
Trade,foodsecurityandnutrition
2.3
Tradecostsandhowtheyaremeasured
2.4
Structuralgravitymodelsandthe
fundamentaldriversoftrade
2.5
Tradeopennessimpacts:Growth,
productivityandinequality
5
14
20
27
28
34
38
45
3.1
Tradeandbiodiversity:Theimportanceof
regulation
3.2
EuropeanCommissionproposalsfor
regulatingdeforestation-freeproductsand
corporatesustainabilityduediligence
3.3
WTOenvironmentalcases:Shrimp-Turtle
andBrazil-RetreadedTyres
4.1
Thepoliticaleconomyofprotectionoffood
andagriculture
4.2
Deeptradeagreements
4.3
Analysingeconomicintegrationandtrade
costreductionscenarios
4.4
TheAfricanContinentalFreeTradeArea
4.5
TheRegionalComprehensiveEconomic
Partnership
55
58
60
75
78
81
85
87
|v|
FOREWORD
Sinceitsfirsteditionin2004,theFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNation’s(FAO)flagshipreportTheStateofAgriculturalCommodityMarkets(SOCO),hasaddressedemergingdevelopments,long-termtrendsandstructuralchangesinfoodandagriculturalmarkets.Whilethisgoalstillstands,andhasbeenreinforcedbynewdevelopments,theworldhaschangedsignificantlyoverthepast18years.
Theglobalfoodandagriculturalmarkethasexpandedsince1995.Whileallnationshavestrengthenedtheirparticipationintheglobalmarket,emergingeconomiesanddevelopingcountriesareplayingagreaterrole.
Trade,originallyviewedaspurelyeconomicexchange,hastodaybecomeanessentialtoolusedtoadvanceeconomic,socialandenvironmentaloutcomes.
TheoutbreakoftheCOVID-19pandemicinearly2020demonstratedhowarobustandwell-integratedglobalagrifoodsystemcouldhelpcountrieswithstandunprecedentedchallenges.Indeed,globaltradeinfoodandagriculturalproductsprovedtoberemarkablyresilienttothedisruptionscausedbythepandemic.Disruptionswerestrikingbutgenerallyshort-lived,provingthatbyworkingtogetherwearestronger.
ThewarinUkraineisaffectingaregionofsignificantimportanceforglobalfoodsecurityandnutrition.Withthesituationprotracting,thereismuchuncertaintyaroundUkraine’sabilitytofarm,harvestandtradecropsinboththecurrentandupcomingagriculturalseasons.Fortrade,theimpendingriskoffragmentingglobalfoodandagriculturalmarketsposesadditionalthreatstoworldfoodsecurity.
Sucheventsemphasizetheneedformorebreakthroughresearch,adeeperunderstandingoftradenetworks,andbetterapproachestofacilitateintegrationandpromote
well-functioningfoodandagriculturalmarkets.Currently,thetradepolicyenvironmentis
characterizedbyadeadlockinmultilateraltradenegotiationsundertheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)andbyaproliferationofmoreprofoundregionaltradeagreementsthat,inadditiontomarketaccess,aimtopromoteconvergenceindomesticpoliciesandregulationamongtheirsignatories.The2022editionofSOCOexamineshowmutuallyreinforcingmultilateralandregionaleffortscanaddressthesustainabledevelopmentchallengesoftodayandthoseofthefuture.
The2030AgendaforSustainableDevelopmentrecognizesinternationaltradeasanengineforinclusiveeconomicgrowthandpovertyreduction,andasanimportantmeanstoachievetheSustainableDevelopmentGoals.Tradecancontributetobuildingabetterworld,freeofhungerandmalnutrition.
Tradecanmovefoodfromwhereitcanbeproducedatarelativelylowcosttowhereitisneeded.Inthisway,tradecanpromoteworldfoodsecurityandhealthydiets–ithelpsmanycountriesintheworldmeettheirfoodrequirementsintermsofbothquantityanddiversityatlevelsabovethosewhichtheirdomesticproductioncouldsustain.Tradecouldhelpagricultureacrosstheworldtousenaturalresources,suchaslandandwater,moreefficiently.Itcanalsobeanavenuetodiffuseknowledgeworldwide.Globalvaluechainscreateopportunitiesfortechnologytransferandcanpromoteagriculturalproductivityimprovements.Increasingproductivityisimportantfordevelopingcountries.
Thereisnodoubtthatopen,rules-based,predictableandwell-functioningglobalmarketsbenefitallcountries.Intheaggregate,globalmarketsimproveefficiencyinagricultureandofferconsumersawiderchoiceoffoodatmoreaffordableprices.Atthesametime,foodandagriculturaltradecanresultinnegativeenvironmentalorsocialoutcomes.Producingforexportcanresultinmorepollution,deforestationandgreenhousegasemissions.Cheaperfood
|vi|
FOREWORD
importscouldleavesmallholderfarmersindevelopingcountriesunabletocompete.Womenfarmerswhohavelimitedaccesstocapitalandinputscouldbeaffectedthemost.Tradepoliciesalonecannot,andshouldnot,beexpectedtofullyaddressthetrade-offsamongeconomic,environmentalandsocialobjectives.Theymustbecomplementedbyother,moretargetedmeasures.
Howwedecideontradepoliciesandthecomplementarymeasuresthatcanpromotesustainableagrifoodsystemsisalsoimportant.Multilateraltraderulesprovidethemostfundamentalpillarsofglobalfoodandagriculturaltrade.Often,deeperandextensiveregionaltradeagreementsarebuiltonthemultilateralframeworktopromotefurthertradeintegration.Theseagreementscanpromoteregionalfoodandagriculturalvaluechainsbyallowingforadditionalnormsforcooperationandharmonizingfoodregulationandstandards.Theimportanceoftradeagreementsdoesnotonlyemanatefromeconomicgains.Tradeintegrationcanalsoreducetheprobabilityofconflict.Forexample,whenitwascreatedin1958,theEuropeanCommonMarketaspiredtouniteEuropeandpreservepeaceinacontinenttornbysuccessivewars.
Today,globalfoodandagriculturalmarketsaremoreintegratedthanever;however,withtheincreasinglycomplexchallengesweface,
ourprimaryfocusshouldbeonsafeguarding
theessentialandbeneficialfunctionsofthose
markets.Afragmentationofglobalfoodtrade
couldthreatenfoodsecurityinmanypartsof
theworld.Attimesofcrises,exportrestrictions
canaddtoextremepricevolatilityandharm
low-incomefood-deficitcountries,particularly
thosethatdependonglobalmarketsfortheir
foodsecurity.Theycanalsohaveadverse
medium-termimpacts.
SOCO2022examinesmultilateralandregional
approachestoagriculturaltradepolicyinterms
ofagrifoodsystemsresilience,economicgrowth
andenvironmentaloutcomes.Multilateraland
regionaltradeintegrationcanbemutually
supportiveinmakingfoodandagricultural
tradeanengineforgrowth.Butwhenitcomes
toglobalchallengessuchasclimatechange,it
ismultilateralcooperationthatwillbeeffective
withtradepoliciesthathelpclimatemitigation
effortstohaveglobalreach.Globalchallenges
requireglobalsolutions.
Foodandagriculturaltradepoliciesshould
aimtosafeguardglobalfoodsecurity,help
toaddressthetrade-offsbetweeneconomic
andenvironmentalobjectives,andstrengthen
theresilienceoftheglobalagrifoodsystemto
shocks,suchasconflicts,pandemicsandextreme
weather.Thisreportofferstimelyandinvaluable
insightsforpolicymakersandotherkeyactorsto
assistthemintakingconcreteactions.
QuDongyu
FAODirector-General
|vii|
METHODOLOGY
WorkonTheStateofAgriculturalCommodityMarkets2022(SOCO2022)beganinJanuary2021.Theresearchandwritingteam,assembledatthattime,wascomposedofsixstaffmembersoftheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)whowereresponsibleforthedataanalysis,researchandwritingofthereport.
FAOconductedaneconometricmodellingexercisetoanalysethestatisticalrelationshipbetweenbilateraltradeflows,relativepricesandgeographicbarriers,andtoidentifythekeydriversoftradesuchasabsoluteadvantage,comparativeadvantageandtradecosts.Inaddition,agroupofexternalexpertswereengagedtosupportthewritingteamindevelopingthiseditionofthereport.Theexternalexpertsperformedtwoadditionalanalyticalexercises:atradenetworkanalysis,andacomputablegeneralequilibriummodelsimulationtoestimatetheeffectsofdifferentliberalizationandtradecostreductionscenarios.Anexternalexpertalsoproducedacriticalreviewoftheimpactsoftradeontheenvironment.
InApril2022,themanuscriptwassenttoexternalreviewers,whoprovidedsubstantivecommentsandadviceontheanalysisofthereport.ThereportwasalsoreviewedbymultipleexpertsacrossFAO,whoprovidedvaluablecomments.
ThereportwasreviewedanddiscussedbythemanagementteamoftheFAOEconomicandSocialDevelopmentStreaminApril2022.ThecontentandfindingsofSOCO2022willbepresentedtotheCommitteeonCommodityProblems(CCP)atitsmeetinginJuly2022.
|viii|
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
TheStateofAgriculturalCommodityMarkets2022(SOCO2022)waspreparedbyamultidisciplinaryteamoftheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)underthedirectionofBoubakerBen-Belhassen,DirectorofFAO’sMarketsandTradeDivision,andGeorgeRapsomanikis,SeniorEconomistandEditorofSOCO2022.OverallguidancewasprovidedbyMáximoToreroCullen,FAOChiefEconomist,andbythemanagementteamoftheEconomicandSocialDevelopmentStream.
ResearchandWritingTeam
TheresearchandwritingteamattheFAOMarketsandTradeDivisionwascomposedof:AndreaZimmermann,ClarissaRoncatoBaldin,CosimoAvesani,EdonaDervisholli,GeorgeRapsomanikis,HusamAttaallahandMa?gorzataKarolinaKoz?owska.
ExternalReviewers
Thewritingteamreceivedvaluablecommentsfromexternalreviewers,suchasCarmelCahill(formerDeputyDirectorforTradeandAgriculture,OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment),StefanoSchiavo(UniversityofTrento),ValeriaPi?eiro(InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute[IFPRI])andYaghoobJafari(UniversityofBonn).
InternalReviewers
Thewritingteamisgratefulforthevaluablecommentsreceivedfromthefollowingreviewers:AikateriniKavallari,AndreCroppenstedt,AngélicaJácomeDaza,BenjaminDavis,BrunoCammaert,CarolineMerle,DavidedelPrete,EkaterinaKrivonos,ElMamounAmrouk,EmilianoMagrini,EwaldRametsteiner,GalaDahlet,GeorgiosMermigkas,GuenterHemrich,JakobRauschendorfer,JamieMorrison,JippeHoogeveen,LaurenPhillips,LourdesOrlando,LynnetteNeufeld,MarcoSánchezCantillo,MáximoToreroCullen,MonikaTothova,NancyAburto,PieroConforti,SergioRenéAraujoEncisoand
TomislavIvancic.
Contributors
Thefollowingauthorscontributedtechnicalbackgroundpapersf
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