摩根士丹利-全球投資策略-全球供應(yīng)鏈調(diào)查：公司最高管理層的想法

June9,202208:01PMGMT

GlobalSupplyChain

GlobalSupplyChainSurvey:WhattheC-SuiteIsThinking

Ourproprietary,globalcorporateAlphaWisesurveygivesusuniqueinsightsintohowC-suitesarethinkingaboutcurrentsupplychaincomplexities,howtheirdecisionmakingprocessesareevolvingandadaptingtotheunstablegeopoliticalenvironment,andthoughtsonrealignmentoptions.

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

2

Cou本L!pn本oL2

MorganStanley&Co.LLC

VuqLeMBb9n卜eL

EquityStrategist

+1212761-1330

Andrew.Pauker@

MorganStanleyAsia(Singapore)Pte.+D9u!e「KB「9卜e

EquityStrategist

+656834-6597

Daniel.Blake@

MorganStanley&Co.LLC

2本ebpeuCB入Lq

EquityAnalyst

+1212761-3865

Stephen.Byrd@

MorganStanleyMéxico,CasadeBolsa,S.A.deC.V.+V「e)9uqL9OpLe8ou

ResearchAssociate

+52555282-6732

Alejandra.Obregon@

MorganStanley&Co.LLC

W!cp9e「D施e之92圖CEV

Strategist

+1212761-8609

Michael.Zezas@

MorganStanleyMéxico,CasadeBolsa,S.A.deC.V.+V!卜o「9)「!bb山9uu

EquityAnalyst

+52555282-6778

Nikolaj.Lippmann@

MorganStanley&Co.LLC

W!cp9e「)M!「2ou

EquityStrategist

+1212761-2532

M.Wilson@

MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+CL9p9山2ec卜eL

EquityStrategist

+44207425-6188

Graham.Secker@

MorganStanley&Co.LLC

K9本!e2o「o^!e^9

DataAnalyst

+1212761-6753

Katie.Solovieva@

MorganStanley&Co.LLC

W!cpe「「eW.Me9^eL圖CEVEquityStrategist

+1212296-5254

Michelle.M.Weaver@

MorganStanleyResearch3

GlobalSupplyChainSurvey:WhattheC-

SuiteIsThinking

WewantedtobetterunderstandhowCorporatesarethinkingaboutsupportstheMorganStanleyResearchviewthatincremental

supplychainsgiventhecurrentbackdrop,sowesurveyed>400capexisinmostcaseslikelytobereturns-dilutive.

c-levelexecutivesacrosstheworldtofindout.Inthisnotewesum-?AutomationandDigitalAdoption:Amajorityofcorporates

marizeourkeyfindings.ThisworkfollowsonfromourrecentBlueagreethatonshoringmayaccelerateautomationanddigital

PaperNavigatingSlowbalizationandaMultipolarWorld,whichana-adoption,andpavethewayforwaveofinnovation.Afewcor-

lyzedhowgeopoliticalandeconomictrendsareincreasinglyincen-poratesalsomentionedthatdigitalizationandautomation

tivizingsupplychainrealignmentandthechallengesthiscreates.mayhelpaddressthelaborshortage.Interestingly,largecap

andcompaniesinJapan/Taiwan/SouthKoreatendtobemore

KeySurveyTakeaways:skeptical.Overtwo-thirdsofcorporatesalsoagreethat

onshoringpavesthewayforawaveofinnovation.

?GeopoliticalRisks:Thisisincreasinglydrivingsupplychain

strategies,withmanagementresponsevaryingsignificantlyRegionalInsightsandImplications:

byregion.Amajorityofcorporatesviewgeopoliticalconflicts

ashavingahigh/moderateimpactontheirmanufacturingand?US:Accesstolaborandgeopoliticalstabilityaretopconsid-

supplychainstrategies.GeopoliticalstabilityisalsooneoferationsforUScorporatesintermsofsupplychaindecision

themostimportantfactorsinsupplychaindecision-makingmaking.UScompaniesarecurrentlymakingincremental

citedbycorporatesacrossregions—theUSoutperformsinvestmentstosecuresupplychainsandincreaseinventory,

otherregionswithrespecttohavinglowrisk.andarefocusedononshoringoverthenext3-5years.In

?Long-TermCommitmenttoAction:Companiesarealreadyaggregate,UScorporatesexpectprofitmarginstodeclineas

actingtomakeinvestmentstosecuresupplychainsandaresultofsupplychainchangesoverthenext3-5years.The

increaseinventoryalongthesupplychain.However,majormajorityofcompaniesseeaccelerationinautomation/digital

shiftsinthesupplychainwilltaketime,andmostcorporates,adoptionlookingforward,butit’slikelytobeagradualshift.

especiallyintheUS/EU,areconsideringmoregradual,long-?Mexico:Slowbalizationandnearshoringrepresentanimpor-

termadjustments.tantmidandlongtermopportunityforMexico.Wearguethat

?Views/StrategiesVariedSignificantlybyRegion:thecountrycouldgainsomemarketshareofUSmanufac-

CorporatesinEuropewerethemostbullishonexpandingturingimportsinsomeofitswell-establishedandexisting

theirmanufacturingactivitiesinthefuture.Asiancorporatesecosystems,asitisrankedfairlywellvs.otherregionsinsome

wereingenerallessfocusedonsupplychainrealignmentandkeyverticalsamongUScorporates.However,itisclearthat

weremuchmorefocusedonlocal/regionalinvestmentandforittobeabletocapitalizeontheopportunity,policy

growth.UScompaniesweremoreinclinedtoconsidermakersstillhavehomeworktodo.Interestingly,Mexico

onshoring,whilecompaniesinGermanyandJapan/Taiwan/scoresmiddleoftheroadonfactorspertainingtoqualityof

Koreaweremorelikelytonearshore.UScompaniesexpectinfrastructure,buthighonwages/labor.Theopportunityisto

theircapexinEuropetogodown,butsalescontributiontocapitalizeonthatcomplimentaryfactorswhilesecuringelec-

increase,implyingthey’relikelythinkingofexportingmoretotricitysupplyintheprocess.Inaddition,italsoscoresbetter

Europeratherthaninvestinginproducinglocally.thanChinaonwagerates,environmentalregulation,prox-

?CapitalRequiredtoAdjustSupplyChains:Meaningfulcap-imitytothecustomer,healthcareandcommoditycosts,

italisrequiredinmostcases—resultinginarelativelyamongothers.

gradualchangeratherthanverysignificantnear-term“step?Europe:Withover54%ofEuropeancompanies'revenuesare

changes”tosupplychains.Onaverage,corporatesexpectderivedfromoverseasEuropefacesanespeciallytrickybal-

margindeclinesofabout-2%duetosupplychainchanges;ancingactwithrespecttosupplychainrealignment.Our

thisislowerinJapan/Taiwan/Korea(-1.3%).Feedbackfromsurveycorroboratesthisstanceandshowsasmalluptickin

corporatesonthemarginimpactfromsupplychainchangescapexintentionstoChina/Taiwanoverthenext3Yfor

4

GermanandtheUKcompanies.Germancorporatesappear

mostsensitivetothegeopoliticalsituationwithsome38%ofGermancorporates"verylikely"torestructuresupplychainsinthenext3-5yearsversusasurveyaverageof22%.WhenthinkingaboutovercomingsupplychainlogisticsissuesFrenchandGermancorporatesshowthegreatestwilling-nesstoundertakeincrementalinvestmentinproductionrobotics/automationinaglobalcontext.Lastly,UKcorpo-ratesappearmostdownbeatwhenthinkingaboutthemarginimpactsfromsupplychainchangesandtendtoberelyingonholdingmoreinventorytonavigatesupplychainissuesatthistime(potentiallyduetoBrexit).

?APAC:TheAPACregionlooksrelativelywellpositionedfromSlowbalizationandMultipolartrendsatthecurrentjuncture.Corporatesexpecttospendagreatershareoftheirinvest-mentbudgetsintheregion,bothinAsia-ex-ChinaandChina,

surprisingly.CorporatesinJapan/Taiwan/SouthKoreaexpectlesssupplychainreallocationandmarginpressurethanUSandEUcounterparts.Sector-wise,automation,digitalization,energy,anddefensestocksmaybenefitfromthesetrends.

NoteontheSurveyMethodology:OnlinesurveyconductedMay2-18,2022,among414corporatesintheUS,theUK,France,Germany,andAPAC(Japan,Taiwan,SouthKorea)...

?AmongCEOs,CFOs,COOs,andCSCOswhoaredecision-makersoncapex,strategicinvestments,andmanufacturingactivities.

?Allcompanieshaverevenueover$500million.

?Targetedcompaniesfallintovariousindustries:capitalgoods,materials,energy,tech,consumerdurables,autos,healthcare,transportation,andsemiconductors.

MorganStanleyResearch5

AlphaWiseGlobalCorporateSupplyChainSurvey:Takeaways

6

AlphaWiseGlobalCorporateSupplyChainSurvey:

KeyTakeaways

AlphaWisecollaboratescloselywithfundamentalanalysts,strategists,andeconomiststoidentifyinvestmentdebatesthatdatacanclarify.Buildingonadecadeofexperience,AlphaWisecontinuestopursuetwoprimarygoals:(1)generatingdirectalphaforclientsand(2)enhancingtheMorganStanleyResearchproductwithamoresystematic,data-drivenapproach.

MorganStanleyResearch7

KeyTakeaways–RegionalandGeopoliticalDynamics

Geopoliticsareincreasinglydrivingsupplychainstrategies,andmanagementstrategiesvarysignificantlybyregion.

GeopoliticsaKeyDriverofSupplyChainStrategiesforMostCompanies…

?Amajorityofcorporatesviewgeopoliticalconflictsashavingahigh/moderateimpactontheirmanufacturingandsupplychainstrategies.

?Geopoliticalstabilityisalsothemostimportantfactorinsupplychaindecision-makingcitedbycorporatesacrossregions—theUSbyfaroutperformsotherregionswithrespecttohavinglowrisk.

?Companiesarealreadyactingtomakeinvestmentstosecuresupplychainsandincreaseinventoryalongthesupplychain.However,majorshiftsinthesupplychainwilltaketime,andmostcorporates,especiallyintheUS/EU,areconsideringmoregradual,long-termadjustments.

…butViews/StrategiesVarySignificantlybyRegion

?CorporatesinEuropewerethemostbullishonexpandingtheirmanufacturingactivitiesinthefuture,withFrenchcorporatesbeingthemostbullish.

?Germancorporateswerethemostfocusedongeopoliticalrisksandsupplychainadjustments.

?Asiancorporateswereingenerallessfocusedonsupplychainrealignment,andweremuchmorefocusedonlocal/regionalinvestmentandgrowth.

?UScompaniesexpecttheircapexinEuropetogodown,butsalescontributiontoincrease,implyingthey’relikelythinkingofexportingmoretoEuroperatherthaninvestinginproducinglocally.

Onshoringvs.Nearshoring

?UScompaniesaremoreinclinedtoconsideronshoring,whilecompaniesinGermanyandJapan/Taiwan/Koreaarelikelytonearshore.

8

KeyTakeaways–MarginImpacts,InnovationandRealignmentCriteria

Managementsconcludedthatadjustingsupplychainswouldlikelynegativelyimpactmargins/returnsinmostcases,supportiveoftheMorganStanleyResearchview.Supplychainchangescouldunleashawaveofinnovation,butnotallcorporatessubscribetothisview.

CapitalRequiredtoAdjustSupplyChains

?Meaningfulcapitalrequiredisinmostcases—resultinginarelativelygradualchangeratherthanverysignificantnear-term“stepchanges”tosupplychains.

?FeedbackfromcorporatesonthemarginimpactfromsupplychainchangessupportstheMorganStanleyResearchviewthatincrementalcapexisinmostcaseslikelytobereturns-dilutive.

AutomationandDigitalAdoption

?Amajorityofcorporatesagreethatonshoringmayaccelerateautomationanddigitaladoption,andpavethewayforwaveofinnovation.Afewcorporatesalsomentionedthatdigitalizationandautomationmayhelpaddressthelaborshortage.

?Interestingly,largecapandcompaniesinJapan/Taiwan/SouthKoreatendtobemoreskeptical.

CriteriaUsedinSupplyChainRealignmentDecisions

?TheUSbyfaroutperformsotherregionsonthemostimportantfactor—geopoliticalstability.TheUSalsorankshighondevelopedsupplychainecosystem,qualityofinfrastructure,andproximitytocustomers.

?Europerankshighestonaccesstoskilledlabor,whileChinaisontopinproximitytosuppliers.

?Mexicobyfaroutranksotherregionsonhavingfavorablewagerates.

MorganStanleyResearch9

KeyTakeaways–USEquityStrategy

AccesstolaborandgeopoliticalstabilityaretopconsiderationsforUScorporatesintermsofsupplychaindecisionmaking.UScompaniesarecurrentlymakingincrementalinvestmentstosecuresupplychainsandincreaseinventory,andarefocusedononshoringoverthenext3-5years.Inaggregate,UScorporatesexpectprofitmarginstodeclineasaresultofsupplychainchangesoverthenext3-5years.Themajorityofcompaniesseeaccelerationinautomation/digitaladoptionlookingforward,butit’slikelytobeagradualshift.

AccesstoLabor&GeopoliticalStabilityTopFactorsforSupplyChainDecision-Making

?ConcernsaroundUSlabortightnessandshortages,aswellashigherwages,arecitedbycorporatesaspotentialfuturedriversoftechadoptionandautomation…althoughit’slikelytobeagradualshift.

?UScompaniesrankedMexicoasthemostadvantageouslocation(relativetotheUS,Europe,andChina)fromawageratestandpoint.

?75%ofUScompaniesareatleastsomewhatlikelytochangetheirsupplychainapproachtoaddressgeopoliticalrisksoverthenext3-5years(lowerthanEurope;greaterthanJapan/Taiwan/SouthKorea).

USCompaniesAreMakingIncrementalInvestmentstoSecureSupplyChainsandIncreaseInventoryandAreFocusedonOnshoringOvertheNext3-5Years

?~50%ofUScompaniessurveyedaremakingincrementalinvestmentstosecuresupplychainsandincreaseinventorylevels—themostcommonactionscurrentlybeingtakenwithrespecttomanufacturingandsupplychainlogistics.

?41%ofcompaniesareonshoringproduction(higherthanEurope,butmuchlowerthanJapan/Taiwan/SouthKoreaat70%).

?Lookingforwardoverthenext3-5years,66%oftheUScompaniesthatexpectsupplychainchangesalsoplantoincreaseonshoring—thehighestofanyregionsurveyed.

?Onaverage,UScorporatesexpecta2%margindeclineasaresultofsupplychainchangesoverthenext3-5years(in-linewithEurope;higherthanJapan/Taiwan/SouthKorea).

AMajorityofUSCompaniesSeeAccelerationinAutomation/DigitalAdoption

?72%ofUScompaniessurveyedbelievethatonshoringwillaccelerateautomation/robotics/digitaladoption(vs.80%forGermanyatthehighendand69%forJapan/Tawain/SouthKoreaatthelowend).

10

KeyTakeaways–EuropeanEquityStrategy

OursurveybroadlycorroboratestheviewthatEuropeancorporatesfaceanespeciallytrickybalancingactwithrespecttosupplychainrealignment.

EuropeanCompaniesHaveLimitedPlanstoRedirectCapexatThisStage…

?OursurveysuggestsnomajorregionexpectscapextoChina/Taiwantofalloverthenextthreeyears.Indeed,aslightincreaseinspendtotheregionisanticipatedforUS,UK,andGermancompanies.

?Intermsofregionalmix,thepercentageofEuropean-basedcapexisforecasttofallforUKandGermancompaniesoverthenextthreeyears.

…DespitetheOutsizedImpactstoMargins/LogisticsfromGeopoliticalConflicts

?Europeanmanufacturingandsupplychainlogisticsaremostvulnerabletogeopoliticalconflicts;63%ofGermancorporatesseeahighimpact.Thisfallsto44%intheUKand36%inFrance,butconcernsaremoreacutethanforotherregions(US=31%,Japan/Taiwan/SouthKorea=16%).

?Germancorporatesarethemostfocusedongeopoliticalrisksandsupplychainadjustments;38%areverylikelytorestructuresupplychainsinthenext3-5yearsversusasurveyaverageof22%.

?GermanyfacesaparticularlycomplexbalancingactgiventhatGermancorporatesexpectthelargestincreaseinsalesandcapextoChinaandthewiderAPACregionofanycountryinoursurvey.

?Relativetoglobalpeers,FrenchandGermancorporatesshowthegreatestwillingnesstoundertakeincrementalinvestmentinproductionrobotics/automationtoovercomesupplychainlogisticsissues.

UKCompaniesThinkAboutSupplyChainsDifferently,PotentiallyBecauseofBrexit

?UKcorporatesseemlesswillingtoonshoreornearshoreproductionthanglobalpeers.Instead,theytendtoberelyingonholdingmoreinventorytonavigatesupplychainissues.

?Inaddition,UKcompaniesexpectthebiggesthittomarginsfromsupplychainchanges;approximatelyone-thirdofUKrespondentsexpectamargindraginexcessof300bpsfromthisissue.

MorganStanleyResearch11

KeyTakeaways–Asia/EMEquityStrategy

TheAPACregionlooksrelativelywellpositionedfromSlowbalizationandMultipolartrends,benefitingfromanexpectedrisingshareofinvestmentbudgets,whilecorporatesinJapan/Taiwan/SouthKoreaexpectlesssupplychainreallocationandmarginpressurethanUS&EUcounterparts.

ChinaStillFeaturesinUSandEUCorporateInvestmentPlans

?WhilecommentaryfromUSandEUcorporatesfeaturesanear/friend-shoringnarrative,thesurveyfoundthatChinawasexpectedtoreceivethelargestincreaseinshareofcapexbudgets,whileAsia-ex-Chinaalsoincreases.

?Japan/Taiwan/SouthKoreacorporateshavemodestcapacityexpansionplansversusEurope/US,butexpecttoreorientcapexbudgetsfromChina(23%sharein3years’timevs.26%3yearsago)towardAsia-ex-China(55%sharein3yearstimevs.51%3yearsago).

LessUrgencyandMarginImpactfromSupplyChainReorientationthanforUS&EU

?Only16%ofJapan/Taiwan/SouthKoreacorporateassessmentsseehigh-impactfromgeopoliticalconflictscomparedwith63%inGermany,44%intheUK,and31%intheUS.

?Accordingly,only4%ofcompaniesinthisregionwere“verylikely”tomakesupplychainchangestoaddresstheserisks,comparedwith38%inGermanyand25%inUS.

?Marginimpactswerealsoseentobemoremanageableforcompaniesinthisregion(onaverage,-1.3%)thantheUSorEU(over-2%).

Automation,DigitalizationareKeyFocusAreasforInvestment

?Theysurveysuggestsacceleratinggrowthinautomationanddigitalizationspending,benefitingAsia/EMequitysegmentssuchasfactoryautomationandITservices.

?Energysecurityanddefense-relatedsectorsarealsokeyrelativebeneficiariesofthistrend.

12

InterestingQuotesfromExecutives

ExecutivesofUScompanies

?“AdditionalwarsinEuropeisaconcernoverthenext5years.”

?“AllofthesupplychainissueswehavealldealtwithinthelasttwoyearsexistedpriortoCovid,obviouslyjustnotasseverely.Justabouteverycompanywaslaxintheirattentiontosupplychainmanagement.Webelievethefocuswillremainhigh,thentrailoffinthenext3-5years.”

?“MycompanyisinvestingheavilynowtobringproductionbackfromEastAsiaintotheUSA.ThisinvestmentisbeingmadetoensuresupplycontinuitywhichhasbeenbadlyaffectedbyCoviddrivendisruption.”

?“TheaspectoflaborshortagesintheUSisaparticularconcern.Secondarywouldbethelackofaformalenergypolicythatwouldallowforadaptationinthefuture…”

ExecutivesofEuropeancompanies

?“Givenrecentgeopoliticaleventswehaveundertakenamassivereviewofourstrategyandimplementedchangealready.Initiallytocombatcrisissituationsandrawmaterialshortagesbuttoultimatelyfutureproofourproductioncapabilities.”

?“Decentralizationofsupplychainandnear-shoringwillbeatrend.ChinageopoliticalrisksmaytriggerretrenchingbacktotheUS/WesternEuropeandincreaseIndia'sroleasabestcostcountrypartner.”

?“Reversingtwo-decadestrategywithin2years.”

?“DuetothepoliticalsituationinRussia,wewillberelocatingourinvestmentstrategy.ExpansionintoEasternEuropehasbeenstoppedforthetimebeing.”

ExecutivesofAPACcompanies

?“Adiversifiedsupplychainstrategyismuchneededtoday….Geopoliticalimpactislimitedtofewcountries,hencetheoverallimpactforusisonthemoderatelevel.”

?“WearelookingforwardtoexpandourfootprintonAsiaPacificandOceaniacountriesandwearelookingtoinvestinexistingproductionfacilitiesinVietnamandJapan.”

?“IbelieveweshouldmakeouronshoringproductionstrongtotacklethegeopoliticalrisksbetweentheUSandChina…forthosecompanieswhorelymostlyontheiroffshoringoperation,Ithinkitisalsotimetothinkaboutreshoringtheoperationanddevelopingmoreskilledresourceshere.”

MorganStanleyResearch13

SurveyMethodologyandSample

OnlinesurveyconductedMay2-18,2022,among414corporatesintheUS,theUK,France,Germany,andAPAC(Japan,Taiwan,SouthKorea)...

?AmongCEOs,CFOs,COOs,andCSCOswhoaredecisionmakersoncapex,strategicinvestments,andmanufacturingactivities.

?Allcompanieshaverevenueover$500million,andoverhalfaremultinationalcorporations.

?Targetedcompaniesfallintovariousindustries:capitalgoods,materials,energy,tech,consumerdurables,autos,healthcare,transportation,andsemiconductors.

Source:AlphaWise,MorganStanleyResearch

GlobalNote:CautionsamplesizeislowinFrancen=36

14

LocationofManufacturingFacilities/Factories

Fully94%ofcorporatesintheUShavelocalmanufacturingfacilities;43%alsohavelocationsinWesternEurope,28%inCanada,and24%inMexico.

?GermanyismostexposedtoEasternEurope(58%havefacilitiesintheregion).

?CapitalgoodsandenergysectorsskewhigheronhavingUSoperations(76%and80%);consumerdurablesskewChina/Taiwan(64%).Companiesintheautoindustry,inaggregate,haveoperationsinmoreregionscomparedtoothersectors(China/Taiwan80%,US69%,WesternEurope54%,EasterEurope51%,Mexico40%).

OthercountriesincludeIndia,Philippines,Singapore,Thailand,Vietnam

Source:AlphaWise,MorganStanleyResearch

MorganStanleyResearch15

ManufacturingOutlook

EUcorporatesaremostbullishonexpandingtheirmanufacturingactivitiesinthefuture…

?WhileJapan/Taiwan/SouthKoreaarereserved,withonly15%planningsignificantmanufacturingexpansionoverthenext3years.

?IntheUS,18%ofcompaniessurveyedhavemeaningfulexpansionplansforthenext12months;thisgoesupto36%forlonger-termoutlook.

Source:AlphaWise,MorganStanleyResearch

16

US:SalesandCapEx

CorporatesintheUSreportsimilardistributionofsalesandcapexacrossregions,with~60%ofsalesandcapexcurrentlyallocatedtotheUS.

?ThecapexoutlookfortheUSisstable(59%share);Europeisprojectedtogodown(from18%todayto14%threeyearsfromnow),withAsia(ex.China)upslightly(5%to7%)andChinaup(7.8%to9.0%).

Source:AlphaWise,MorganStanleyResearch

MorganStanleyResearch17

EU:SalesandCapEx

InGermany,thereisacleartrendinincreasedcapexallocationtowardAPAC(26%threeyearsagoto37%threeyearsfromnow)andawayfromEurope.

?Asimilartrend,albe