Gartner -使用情景規(guī)劃為不確定的能源未來做好準(zhǔn)備

GartnerResearch

UseScenario

PlanningtoPrepare

foranUncertain

EnergyFuture

RichMcAvey,ZarkoSumic,EthanCohen,

MikeRamsey,BettinaTratz-Ryan,KeithHarrison,

StephenSmith,ChetGeschickter,NicoleFoust,

SimonCushing,LloydJones

11August2021

UseScenarioPlanningtoPrepareforanUncertainEnergyFuture

Published11August2021-IDG00755172-11minread

ByAnalyst(s):RichMcAvey,ZarkoSumic,EthanCohen,MikeRamsey,BettinaTratz-Ryan,KeithHarrison,StephenSmith,ChetGeschickter,NicoleFoust,SimonCushing,LloydJones

Initiatives:ExecutiveLeadership:Sustainability;CIOLeadershipofInnovation,DisruptiveTrendsandEmergingPractices

Rapidlygrowingdemandforenergy—andconsequentialenvironmentalimpacts—iscreatingglobaldisruptionsforeveryindustry.Executiveleadersshouldusethefutureofenergyscenariotoanticipate,prepareandnavigateacomplexandvolatilefuture.

Overview

KeyFindings

■Asdevelopingcountriesmakeeconomicprogress,theirgrowingenergyneedsplacesubstantialpressureonglobalenergymarketsandenvironmentalconditions.Economicincentivesdonotre?ectthetotalsocietalcostofincreasingenergyproductionontheenvironmentskewingnear-terminvestments.

■Energyavailabilityandcostare,directlyorindirectly,fundamentalfactorsthatdeterminetheviabilityofeverybusinessineveryindustry.Mostcompaniesarenotawareofhowmuchexposuretheyhavetodisruptionscomingfromenergymarkets.

■Energymarketsareatanin?ectionpoint.Growingdemand,lackof“game-changing”technologiesandunreliableinvestmentincentivesmakethefutureofenergyhardtopredict.

■Dataanddigitaltechnologies,ifusedinnovelways,maybealargefactorinshapingfutureenergyscenarios.Mostexecutiveleadershavenotyetconnectedtheirdigitalstrategieswiththeunderlyingrisksfromenergydisruption.

Gartner,Inc.|G00755172

Page1of11

Recommendations

Executiveleadersinvolvedindesigninganadaptivestrategytopreparefortheimpactofenergydisruptionontheirorganizationshould:

■Usescenarioplanningtoprepareforanuncertainenergyfutureandinterpretchangesinawiderangeofforces(social,technological,economic,environmentalandpolitical)toanticipateenergydisruptionsinatimelymanner.

■Analyzetheirorganization’sexposuretoenergydisruptionbyusingfourscenariostoidentifywhichuncertaintiespresentthegreatestrisksandopportunitiestotheirbusinessmodelandinvestmentportfolio.

■Strengthentheirorganization’sreadinessforthefuturebyaskingtherightquestionstochallengeconventionalthinking,reviewingtheimpactofenergyscenariosontheirorganization’sbusinessmodelandkeepingtheirIToperatingmodelinsyncwithcurrentrequirements.

Analysis

ThisresearchisadaptedfromSucceedinginaWorldWheretheFutureofEnergyDisruptsEverything,whichguidestheCIOstoprepareforanuncertainenergyfuturebyscenarioplanning.

AccordingtotheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),theenergydemandisprojectedtogrow15%from2020through2030.1Overthesameperiod,theenergy-relatedCO2emissionsareforecasttogrowbyapproximately11%.1

Beyond2050,industryexperts’forecastsoverthelastfewyearsdivergesigni?cantly.Someanticipatesustainedgrowth,somepredictnegativegrowthandothersforecastinitialgrowththendecline.1Theserangesofuncertaintymakeitimpossibleforcompaniestoplanspeci?cstrategiestocopewiththeirexposuretoenergymarketdisruptions.

Also,sincetheCOVID-19outbreak,long-termenergyforecastshavegrownlessclear.ItisforthisreasonthatGartnercreatedtheplanningscenariosinthisresearch.Becausewhenleadersfaceextremeuncertainty,traditionalplanningapproachesdonotalwayswork.Scenarioshelpleaderscomeupwithavarietyofpotentialoutcomesratherthanasingle-point,staticforecastbasedonassumptions.

Gartner,Inc.|G00755172

Page2of11

FourFutureofEnergyScenarios

InApril2019,wegatheredamultidisciplinaryteamtoaddressenergyuncertainty,createaframeworkandbuildasetofscenariosthatdescribesthefutureofenergyacrossallindustries.Scenariomethodologylooksatawiderangeofcurrentandemergingpolitical,social,economicandotherforcesthatwillsigni?cantlyin?uencethefuture,andenablesenterprisestoidentifybigforcesthatmayaffectfutureoutcomes.

Thefutureofenergyscenarioframeworkisbasedontwoforces:economicexternalities—indirecteconomicfactorsthatshapeenergycostsandinvestmentincentives,suchastheconsequencesofenergyproductionontheenvironment,taxesandsubsidies;andtechnologycapabilities—state-of-the-artcapabilitiesforcreating,distributingandconsumingenergy,includingprovenmeansandnewinventions.Theintersectionofthesetwoforcesprovidesuswithfouruniquepossiblescenarios(seeFigure1).

Figure1.FutureofEnergyFramework

Gartner,Inc.|G00755172

Page3of11

Eachscenarioidenti?edinthefutureofenergyframeworkexploresthefollowingcharacteristics:

■BusinessContext:Technologystate,businessmodel,investmentpostureandotherfactors

■BusinessMindset:Operationalexcellence,bimodal,preferredplayerorgrowth

■HowtoWininThisScenario:Adviceforcompaniesthatwantto(ormust)remainorenter—andsucceed—inaspeci?cscenario

Italsorepresentsaplausibleoutcomethathelpsexecutiveleadersidentifyhowtheyfeelaboutthefuturetoday.Executiveleadersshouldshareitwiththeircross-functionalpeersandtheboardtoachieveacommonvision.

ScenarioA:StatusQuoWorld

Companiesinthisscenarioaretryingtohangontowhattheyhave,puttingupbarrierstokeepoutnewmarketentrants.Mostoftheiropportunitiesarecreatedbyotherpeoples’money—mainlygovernments.Statusquocompaniestendtobepredictable,reliable,haveachievedeconomiesofscale,andconcentrateoncost-ef?ciencyandoperationalexcellence.Thereisastrongfocusonriskmanagement,andtheytypicallywillnotinvestinsomethingthatmayunderminetheirmainrevenuestreams.Theywillrespondtothingstheyhaveto—suchasnaturaldisastersandregulations.Nobody’sbusinessmodelwillbedisruptedorsigni?cantlychangedinthisscenario(seeTable1).

Gartner,Inc.|G00755172

Page4of11

Table1:ScenarioA:StatusQuoWorld

■

■

■

Noonehasa

technology

advantage

Subsidiesandtaxesareinconsistentandtransient

Thereisminimal

threatfromnew

businessmodels

■Theyworryaboutharmfulregulations

■Thereareminimallargeinvestments

■Theyuseminimaldigital—primarilytooptimizeperformance

Winnersinthisscenarioarereallyjustsurvivors—mixingstrongcorebusinessoperationoptimizationwithpreemptiveregulatorymanagement.Theirgoalistoprotectthecurrentbusinessmodelbyavoidingdamagefrompolicychanges.Therearenolong-termwinningstrategiesinthisscenario,buttosurviveorganizationsmust:

■Protectcapitalinvestment

■Prioritizecost-efficiency

■Manageregulatoryissuespreemptively

Source:Gartner(August2021)

Webelievethisscenariomaynotbesustainableinthelongterm.Acatastrophicevent(orseriesofevents)coulddestroyastatusquocompany.Forexample,aCaliforniautilitythatfacedbankruptcyduetoenvironmentaldisastersandregulatory?nes.Or,asuddenchangeinenergypolicyandknee-jerkregulationasexperiencedinJapanandGermanyfollowingtheFukushimaDaiichinuclearreactorincident.

Gartner,Inc.|G00755172

Page5of11

ScenarioB:MixedWorld

Inthisscenario,therearesometechnologicalbreakthroughs(suchasscalableandaffordablestorage)thatcouldenhancerevenueorimprovecost-ef?cienciesbyaddressingenvironmentalimpact.Butthesubsidiesmaybetooweaktooffsetanytechnology-drivengainsorenabletechnologytoscale.Companiesmaybeabletomixtraditionalanddigitalbusinessmodelsinthisscenario,toopenupnewregionsordomains(windorsolar,forexample)orleverageplatformbusinessmodelstoenablepeer-to-peerenergyexchangesonalimitedscale.Butthemainpurposeofdigitalhereistoaddvalueforthenewtechnology(seeTable2).

Table2:ScenarioB:MixedWorld

(EnlargedtableinAppendix)

Thisscenarioismoreofafree-for-allthatfavorsaggressiveincumbents,well-capitalizednewentrantsandthosewithdeeppocketswhocaninvestinabreakthroughinnovation.IfMixedWorldincumbentscannotcompete,theywillbepushedoutofthemarketplace.However,thesecompaniestendtohavemorediversi?edassetportfolios,areagileandthuscanscalemorequicklythanthoseinotherscenariosandhaveahigherrisktolerance.

Gartner,Inc.|G00755172

Page6of11

ScenarioC:GovernedWorld

Inthisscenario,the“customer”isreallytheregulatororpolicymaker.Abreakthroughtechnologyhasn’temergedyet.Soratherthanfocusingontechnologyinnovationandconsequentbusinessprocesstransformation,companiesrelyongovernmentsubsidiesandacceptregulatoryconstraintstosetupbusinessdirections.Infact,policymakers-regulatorsoftentrytoforcecertainactivitiesthroughtaxation,incentives,capandtrade,tariffsandothergovernmentprograms.Politicianscan“pickwinners”byregulatingpricingemissioncontrolsandotherparameters(seeTable3).

Table3:ScenarioC:GovernedWorld

■

■

■

Marketpricesfullyreflecttruevalue

Transformationisshapedbyregulations,notinnovation

Existingbusiness

modelsadaptas

needed

■

■

■

Regulatorrelationsandstrategyaretoppriorities

Sweatassetsareoftenusedtoavoidriskyinvestments

Theyusedigitalforreliability,agilityandadaptability

WinnersinthisscenarioareexpertsatextractingadditionalincrementalvaluefromexistingassetsanddeferringlargeinvestmentswhoseROIdependsonvolatileregulations;forexample,solarsubsidies.Theyalsohaveplentyofregulatoryacumentoinfluenceenergypolicy.Thosewhobestanticipatechangesandadjustoperatingmodelsaccordinglywillwin.Tosucceedtheymust:

■Balanceregulatoryandoperatingpriorities

■Avoidgettingentrenchedinrigidassetsormarkets

■Findwaystocreatenonregulatedrevenue

Source:Gartner(August2021)

Gartner,Inc.|G00755172

Page7of11

Inthisscenario,economicexternalitiesmayvarybymarket/regionbutthegovernmentguaranteesinvestments.GovernedWorldcompaniesmakesurethattheywillnotbeadverselyaffectedbyexternalityvariationsorregulatoryintervention.Forexample,iftheyaretoldtoclosedowntheircoalplants,theywillexpecttogeta?nancialincentiveinreturn.Theywilldobusinessinanyspace;forexample,electricvehicles,aslongastheyarereceivingsubsidiestodoso.Theycannotaffordtoembraceanyparticulartechnology,marketorproductbecausethegovernmentmayforcethemoutorincentivizethemtodosomethingelse.Asaresult,theyadopttechnologymoreslowlyandmoreincrementally.

ScenarioD:TransformedWorld

CompaniesintheTransformedWorldscenariobene?tfromstrongcapitalavailability,transformationaltechnologybreakthroughsandemergingnewbusinessmodels(seeTable4).Technologyadvancementssuchashyper-low-costphotovoltaicgeneration,IoT-baseddemandmanagementandlarge-scaleelectricitystorage,forexample,willchangethenatureofenergymarkets.Insteadofsupply-centric(generation,distributionandconsumption),theTransformedWorldscenariowillbecustomer-centric:Howdowegivecustomerstheproductsandservicestheywantandneed,andhowdowecreatevaluefromtheseproductsandservices?

Gartner,Inc.|G00755172

Page8of11

Table4:ScenarioD:TransformedWorld

■

■

■

Unprecedentedbusinessopportunity

Investmentdrives

transformation

Newbusinessmodelsdominate

■

■

■

Theycollaboratewithcustomersonnewproductsandservices

Theycreate

partnershipsto

expandrapidly

Digitalisusedtocreatenewdisruptivevaluestreams

Winnersinthisscenarioneedanaggressiveentrepreneurialcultureandleaderswhoconstantlypursuenewopportunities.Theywillmakemassiveinvestmentsandneedcollaborativepartnershipswithco-innovatorsandlarge-scaleexecutionplayers.Winnersexperimenttolearnandunlockeconomicvaluefromgame-changingtechnologies.Towin,organizationsmust:

■Buildnewdigitalbusinessplatformstoscale

■Developaglobalecosystemforgrowth

■Createinnovativenewbusinessmodels

Source:Gartner(August2021)

Thesecompaniesfocuson?guringouthowtobuy,sell,investandmanageallofthisinawaythatdeliverscustomervalue.Inthisscenario,technology(ortechnologies)hasshownextremesuccessandthegovernmentissettinguppathwaysforthetechnologytoscaleup.Companiesthathavethistechnologywillbeverysuccessful,sincetheroleofdigitalistotrulydisruptandcreatenewvaluestreams.

Gartner,Inc.|G00755172

Page9of11

HowtoUseTheseScenariostoPreparefortheFuture

Thescenariosinthisresearchprovidearichnarrative;however,theyshouldbeviewedasthestartingpointforexecutiveleaderstoanticipatechangeanddeveloppracticalstrategiesfornavigatingthroughthiscomplexandvolatileperiod.Eachscenariohasverydistinctrequirementsaroundhowdataanddigitaltechnologieswillplay.Thismeansthatexecutiveleaders’prioritieswillvarydependinguponwhichscenariounfolds:

■StatusQuoWorldScenario:Useminimaldigitaltooptimizeperformance.

■MixedWorldScenario:Usedigitaltoenableabimodalbusinessmodel.

■GovernedWorldScenario:Usedigitalforreliability,agilityandadaptability.

■TransformedWorldScenario:Usedigitaltocreatenewdisruptivevaluestreams.

Itisvirtuallyimpossibleforanexecutiveleadertoprepareforallfourofthesedivergentscenariosatthesametime.Toavoidhavingtheirenterprisespulledapartbyinconsistentresponsestotheevolutionofenergyscenarios,theymustfocusonthreepriorities:

■Asktherightquestionstoraiseawareness:Identifyopportunities,risksandunknownfactorsbyaskingquestions.Forexample,docustomerswantyourproductinthenewworld?Willclimatechangeconsiderationsdestroyyourbusinessmodel,createnewbusinessmodelopportunitiesorboth?Howwillenergypoliciesaffectyourcustomersandemployees?

■Usescenariostoreviewthebusinessmodel:Scenariorisksandunknownswillleadtofundamentallydifferentbusinessmodels.Understandwhatareasofthebusinessneedtorespond.Engagingyourdirectreportsandcross-functionalleaderstoidentifythemostappropriatefuturescenariocanhelpprovidecontexttodevelop,re?neandrevisethemodel,orevendevelopnewonesandstrategies,basedonbusinessgoals.

■Letscenariosdefinechangeintheoperatingmodel:Organizechangestoyourbusiness’soperatingmodeltostayinsyncwithscenariodevelopment.Scenariosarealsousefulforsynchronizingtheenterprise’soperatingmodelwithbusinessmodels.Whilebusinessmodelsshowwhatneedstobedone,theoperatingmodelshowshowthingsgetdone.Bimodaloperationwillbeakeycorecompetencyforachievingfuturesuccess,butiftheoperatingmodeldoesnotchange,theenterprisebusinessmodelandstrategydevelopmentwillnotcometofruition.

Gartner,Inc.|G00755172

Page10of11

Executiveleadersshouldplayasigni?cantroleinidentifyinga“desiredstate”foranygiven“FutureofEnergy”scenarioandaligntheoperatingmodelwithit,asappropriate.Aboveall,theymustcon?rmthattheiroperatingmodelsupportscurrentmission-criticalpriorities,whileensuringthatitevolvesto?tfuturescenarios.

Evidence

1GlobalEnergyDemandandCO2EmissionsTrendsintheStatedPoliciesScenario,2019-2030,InternationalEnergyAgency.

RecommendedbytheAuthors

SomedocumentsmaynotbeavailableaspartofyourcurrentGartnersubscription.Top10TrendsDrivingtheUtilityIndustryin2021

SucceedinginaWorldWheretheFutureofEnergyDisruptsEverything

IndustryInsights:2021OilandGasTopTrends

UrgentActionNeeded:EnergyMarketsAreChangingFasterThanEnergyCompaniesHowEnergyExecutivesCanGetAheadofEnvironmentalRisksWithStrongGreenhouseGasCommitments

EnergyCompaniesAreFacingaDecadeofDeepRedesignandNeedStrongCIOLeadership

?2022Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaf?liates.Allrightsreserved.GartnerisaregisteredtrademarkofGartner,Inc.anditsaf?liates.ThispublicationmaynotbereproducedordistributedinanyformwithoutGartner'spriorwrittenpermission.ItconsistsoftheopinionsofGartner'sresearchorganization,whichshouldnotbeconstruedasstatementsoffact.Whiletheinformationcontainedinthispublicationhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesbelievedtobereliable,Gartnerdisclaimsallwarrantiesastotheaccuracy,completenessoradequacyofsuchinformation.AlthoughGartnerresearchmayaddresslegaland?nancialissues,Gartnerdoesnotprovidelegalorinvestmentadviceanditsresearchshouldnotbeconstruedorusedassuch.Youraccessanduseofthispublicationaregovernedby

Gartner’sUsagePolicy

.Gartnerpridesitselfonitsreputationforindependenceandobjectivity.Itsresearchisproducedindependentlybyitsresearchorganizationwithoutinputorin?uencefromanythirdparty.Forfurtherinformation,see"

GuidingPrinciplesonIndependenceandObjectivity

."

Gartner,Inc.|G00755172

Page11of11

Table1:ScenarioA:StatusQuoWorld

■

■

■

Noonehasatechnologyadvantage

Subsidiesandtaxesareinconsistentandtransient

Thereisminimalthreatfromnewbusinessmodels

■■■

Theyworryaboutharmfulregulations

Thereareminimallargeinvestments

Theyuseminimaldigital—primarilytooptimizeperformance

Winnersinthisscenarioarereallyjustsurvivors—mixingstrongcorebusinessoperationoptimizationwithpreemptiveregulatorymanagement.Theirgoalistoprotectthecurrentbusinessmodelbyavoidingdamagefrompolicychanges.Therearenolong-termwinningstrategiesinthisscenario,buttosurviveorganizationsmust:

■Protectcapitalinvestment

■Prioritizecost-efficiency

■Manageregulatoryissuespreemptively

Source:Gartner(August2021)

Gartner,Inc.|G00755172

Page1Aof4A

Table2:ScenarioB:MixedWorld

■

■

■

Game-changingtechnologiesexistInvestmentincentivesareweakorinconsistentOldandnewbusinessmodelscoexist

■

■

■

Theyfocusonselectiveregionsorenergydomains

Theywillpourlegacycashflowintoattractivenewmarkets

Theyusedigitallyprimarilytoenableabimodalbusinessmodel

Winnersinthisscenarioareorganizationscapableofsustainingtraditionalbusinessoperationsinmostregionswhilealsoinvestingheavilyinnewtechnologyinregionswithfavorableeconomics.Theyalsomustbalanceregulatoryandoperatingpriorities.Tosucceedinthisscenario,organizationsmustpossess:

■Marketsavvytechniquestoidentifythemostattractivemarkets

■Abilitytoinvestatscaleindiverseregions

■Multiple,mixedstrategiesandoperations

Source:Gartner(August2021)

Gartner,Inc.|G00755172

Page2Aof4A

Source:Gartner(August2021)

Table3:ScenarioC:GovernedWorld

■Marketpricesfullyreflecttruevalue

■Transformationisshapedbyregulations,notinnovation

■Existingbusinessmodelsadaptasneeded

■Regulatorrelationsandstrategyaretoppriorities

■Sweatassetsareoftenusedtoavoidriskyinvestments

■Theyusedigitalforreliability,agilityandadaptability

WinnersinthisscenarioareexpertsatextractingadditionalincrementalvaluefromexistingassetsanddeferringlargeinvestmentswhoseROIdependsonvolatileregulations;forexample,solarsubsidies.Theyalsohaveplentyofregulatoryacumentoinfluenceenergypolicy.Thosewhobestanticipatechangesandadjustoperatingmodelsaccordinglywillwin.Tosucceedtheymust:

■Balanceregulatoryandoperatingpriorities

■Avoidgettingentrenchedinrigidassetsormarkets

■Findwaystocreatenonregulatedrevenue

Gartner,Inc.|G00755172

Page3Aof4A

Table4:ScenarioD:TransformedWorld

■

■

■

UnprecedentedbusinessopportunityInvestmentdrivestransformationNewbusinessmodelsdominate

■

■■

Theycollaboratewithcustomersonnewproductsandservices

Theycreatepartnershipstoexpandrapidly

Digitalisusedtocreatenewdisruptivevaluestreams

Winnersinthisscenarioneedanaggressiveentrepreneurialcultureandleaderswhoconstantlypursuenewopportunities.Theywillmakemassiveinvestmentsandneedcollaborativepartnershipswithco-innovatorsandlarge-scaleexecutionplayers.Winnersexperimenttolearnandunlockeconomicvaluefromgame-changingtechnologies.Towin,organizationsmust:

■Buildnewdigitalbusinessplatformstoscale

■Developaglobalecosystemforgrowth

■Createinnovativenewbusinessmodels

Source:Gartner(August2021)

Gartner,Inc.|G00755172

Page4Aof4A

eBook

Top10StrategicTechnology

Trendsfor2023

Explorethetrendsthatwillimpact

yourstrategicambitionsoverthe

nextthreeyears.

ReadNow

Tool

GartnerDigitalExecution

ScorecardTM

Measureprogress,prioritizeinitiatives

andaligntheC-suite.

GetStarted

Actionable,objectiveinsight

Positionyourorganizationforsuccess.ExploretheseadditionalcomplimentaryresourcesandtoolsonforCIOs:

HYPERLINK"/en/informati