某咨詢中國(guó)網(wǎng)通：戰(zhàn)略咨詢報(bào)告完整4

CONTENTKeystrategicprinciplesRegulatoryoverviewMarketoverviewCompetitionoverviewBusinessmodelsNextstepsAGENDABusinessModelsDomesticandinternationallong-distancevoiceWholesale/carrierEnterprisesolutionsIssuesgoingforwardEconomicmodelingChoiceofbusinessmodelstopursueandtimingRoadmapforpursuingbusinessmodelsandexpectedfinancialperformanceIntegratedapproachtoCNCbusinessplanMajor

issuesExpected

outputHowdothemarketsizingandshareassumptionstranslateintooveralltoplinerevenueforCNC?Whatcapitalinvestmentswillbenecessarytobuildoutmetroandlonghaulfibernetworks?PredictedcashflowprofilebybusinessmodelandselectedscenariosAssessmentofmarketopportunitiesHowwillChinadatacommarketdevelop?Howlargeistheoverallopportunityforanewentrant?OverallmarketsizingandrevenueforecastbyproductareaRegulatoryandcompetitiveanalysisWhattypeofregulatoryenvironmentwillevolveinChina?Willequalaccessforvoiceanddatabegrantedandwhen?WhateffectwillWTOhave?RegulatorymappingandCNCsharepredictionsacrossscenariosStrategicimplicationsandcapabilitiesassessmentMETHODOLOGYBEINGUSEDTODEVELOPBUSINESSMODELSANDOVERALLSTRATEGY-CurrentareasoffocusCNCATACRITICALSTRATEGICCROSSROADSPreliminaryConclusionsRecommendations/DecisionstobeMadeOffnetVOIPpredictedtogeneratetoprovidebreakeveneconomicsforbuildingbackbone1

WholesalerevenueprovidessignificantupsidepotentialMajorityofwholesalerevenuereliesonaccesstomobilecarriersEnterprisesolutionseconomicsveryattractive,butsubstantialcomplexityandresourcesinvolvedHigh-bandwidthinternationalgatewaycriticaltosuccessinbothwholesaleandenterpriseEconomicpredictionshighlysensitivetoasetofkeyassumptionsAcceleratevendorselectionandbackboneconstruction;timetomarketcriticalCommitmenttoutilizingIP/DWDMinvlolvesrisktomobilecarrierbusinessRFPtovendorsshouldbebasedonproductrequirementsvs.technologyStagingofinvestmentsandservicelaunchmustconsidertradeoffbetweenqualityofserviceandcoveragePreliminarytalkswithinternationalcarriersshouldbeginASAPScenariomodelingwillhelpusdecidewheretofocusOverarchingquestion:CanCNCsuccessfullypursueallopportunitiesoutlinedintheshort/mediumterm?(1)Assumingsettlementfeesof10%ofrevenueOverallapproachWhereHowBUSINESSMODELSSUMMARY:THREECOREELEMENTSEnterpriseSolutionsCapturedatacomgrowthinkeybusinesscenterswithleading-edgeproductsandsuperiorcustomerserviceTopbusinessdistrictsinmajorurbanareas;onlythemostdenseareasinshorttermFocusedDeploymentLeverageexistingconduitstolayinmajorurbanareasSuperiorserviceandbandwidthTargetCT’sweaknessinserviceandbandwidthUtilizeLMDSinintermediatecitiesandareaswheretimetomarketiscriticalWholesale/CarrierTargetmobilecarriersandISPswithbackbonetransport;considersupplyingfixed-lineincumbentsCoverPOPsinallmajorcallingzones;developlocalleasedlinesnetworkinkeylocationsAggressivedeploymentofbackboneinfrastructuretoprovideunparalleledbandwidthEstablishhighbandwidthinternationalgatewaytodifferentiateinternetaccessSuperiorservicewithclearpositioning“TheclearalternativetoCT”ISPLongdistancevoiceCaptureearlyrevenuefromtofunddevelopmentofsubsequentbusinessmodelsTop60POPsbyendofyear2000utilizingmixofleasedlinesfromCTandCNCnetworkPositionoffnetvoiceasfirstproductfrom“China’sfirstdatacomcarrier”DonotoverextendresourcesinVOIPasitdoesnotfitCNC’slongtermstrategyCreate“dial-around”solutionsforbusinessandinterconnectterms-17930-EnterprisesolutionsPOTENTIALBUSINESSMODELSCOVERWIDERANGEOFPRODUCT/MARKETALTERNATIVESOpportunityforgrowthCurrentmarketsizeWholesale/carrierConsumerISP?DomesticandInternationalLongDistanceVoiceResidentialMed/largeenterprisecustomersCarriersPotentialtrafficperconsumerProductsEmergingdatacomDataVoiceEmergingdatanicheAGENDABusinessModelsDomesticandinternationallong-distancevoiceWholesale/carrierEnterprisesolutionsIssuesgoingforwardAPPROACHTODOMESTICANDINTERNATIONALVOICEBUSINESSMODELObjectivesHypothesizedApproachCaptureearlyrevenuefromlaunchofprepaidIPcallingcards“Cashcow”forfundingotherbusinessmodeldevelopmentPursueprefixandequalaccesslongdistanceforbusinesscustomersassoonaspossibletobeginestablishingrelationshipsManagepricingandproductlifecycleeffectivelytomaximizetotalmarginandavoidinvestingindecliningproductsDonotoverextendourselvesnorblurour“datacom”imageFighttheregulatorybattletoensurefavorableapproachestoequalaccessandinterconnectMarketcallingcardstobusinesscustomersintheshorttermfortravellingpersonnelEmphasizequalityimage/brandtodistinguishfromCTandUnicom--positioncallingcardasfirststepinbecominganextgenerationfullservicesproviderEstablishmechanismstolinkmarketingexpenditureswithrevenueandmargingrowthbyproducttoensureeffectiveinvestmentEmphasizelowcosttargetedmarketingandloyaltyprogramsDonotoverextendAlwaysemphasizeadvancedtechnologyandevolutiontofullservicesprovisionDOMESTICANDINTERNATIONALVOICESUMMARYPreliminaryEconomicsPhaseICapEx(2000,2001):~3.8BRMBFiber/construction:~2.4BRMBIP/DWDMequipment:~720MRMBPOP/VOIP:~530MRMBOSS/Networkmanagementsystem:~100MRMBOpExexpectedtobe~30%ofrevenueby2002Marketshareandrevenueestimates-2002OffnetDLD:30%OffnetILD:30% ~$2BRMBIPIntl.termination:27%5yearNPV:Essentiallybreakevenconsideringoffnetvoicealone1KeyIssuestobeAddressedInterconnectagreementswithlocalPTA’s;attempttoobtainblanketpolicyfromMIIInternationalgatewaylicenseandconnectivitySettlementchargescommensuratewithVOIPpricingDevelopmentofbusinessoffnetstrategyScalable“dial-around”solutionsinshorttermEqualaccesslongertermQualityofserviceforvoice,mustapproachswitchedqualityrapidlyPointofdiminishingreturnsforaddingVOIPgatewaysvs.strategicvalueofprovidingcoverage(1)HighlysensitivetosettlementfeesLARGEMARKETWITHPOTENTIALTOGAINSHAREQUICKLYNewentrantstypicallygainsharequicklyExample:IDDandDLDservicesMarketsizeable-off-nettrafficaccountsfor~15%oftotalDLD/ILDrevenueby2004Source:ChinaTelecomannualreports;CNC’steaminputs;BCGsurveys,analysis&benchmarkingYearafterentryOptus(DLD)Tele2(DLD)Mercury(DLD)HongKong(IDD)Japan(IDD)US(IDD)(RMBBN)DLDOn-NetDLDOff-NetILDOn-NetILDOff-Net(%)CAREFULMANAGEMENTOFPRE-PAIDCALLINGCARDBUSINESSNECESSARYTOALIGNWITHLONGTERMSTRATEGYPrepaidcallingcardscallfordifferentcapabilitysetandtargetcustomersthanlongertermbusinessmodelsFocusonconsumerswillnotcomplementlongtermvisionofprovidingenterprisesolutionsMassadvertisingandmarketingaroundalow-costpositionmaynotfitimagerequiredforfutureneedsThreefactorsimportanttoconsiderinmanagingprepaidcallingcardbusinessAttempttopositioncardsinmarketingmessagesasthefirstproductfromacompanythatisbuildingthemostadvancednetworkinPRCConsidersellingcardstobusinessesfortheirtravelingpersonneltobeginestablishingenterpriserelationshipsCarefullymanageproductlifecycletobeginpullingbackmarketinginvestmentaswholesaleandenterprisebusinessmodelsgrowCNCVOIPREVENUEANDMARKETSHAREEXPECTATIONSSource:CNC’steaminputs;variousbenchmarks;BCGanalysisVoicerevenueShareassumptionsCNCRevenue(RMBBN)Off-NetDLD%oftotalCNCrevenue100%76%37%30%23%16%Off-NetILDInternationalTermination19993%80%1%3%80%1%5%80%0%Off-NetDLDOff-netshareoftotalDLDGeographiccoverageofCNCCNCsharewithincoverageOff-NetILDOff-netshareoftotalILDGeographiccoverageofCNCCNCsharewithincoverageInternationalTerminationIPshareoftotalGeographiccoverageofCNCCNCsharewithincoverage200010%60%25%11%60%25%11%60%20%200117%75%29%18%75%29%18%75%25%200223%90%33%26%90%33%24%90%30%200330%100%30%33%100%30%30%100%30%200432%100%28%35%100%28%35%100%31%PRELIMINARYECONOMICSFORLONGDISTANCEVOICEMODEL(PHASEIBUILDOUT)

VOIPRevenueAloneJustifiesBuildingBackbone5yearPV(1)(MRMB)CapEXOpExRevenue5yearNPV@15%:~-500MRMB5yearIRR:~12%EssentiallybreakeveneconomicsforoperatingbackboneforVOIPonlyVOIP(2)BackboneconstructionBackboneInternationalterminationIDDDLDIPPOP/AccessplatformOSSPresentvalueofcashflows(1)Assuming15%costofcapital(2)Includingsettlementchargesestimatedat10%ofVOIPrevenue,andmarketing/salesat10%ofrevenue(3)BackboneOpExchargesallocated1/3eachtoVOIP,wholesale,andenterprisebusinessmodeleconomicsSource:BCGbenchmarkdatabase;industryinterviews;BCGanalysisAGENDABusinessModelsDomesticandinternationallong-distancevoiceWholesale/carrierEnterprisesolutionsIssuesgoingforwardAPPROACHTOWHOLESALE/CARRIERBUSINESSMODELObjectivesHypothesizedApproachDevelopwholesalebusinessastrafficgeneratortoimproveeconomicsofbackbonethroughhigherutilizationBecomethewholesalecarrierofchoicewithtechnologicallysuperiorserviceofferingsincludinghighbandwidthinternationalgatewayconnectivityConsiderwholesalingaccesstoCT,Unicom,andJitongdependingoncompetitiveimplicationsSuperiorcustomerservicewithclearpositioning“TheclearalternativetoCT”AggressivedeploymentofbackboneinfrastructureConnectingtop15citiesbyendof2000andexpandingtotop50citiesby2002Seekpartnershipstoestablishhighbandwidthinternationalgatewayconnectivity--absolutelyessentialfordifferentiatingCNCofferingDevelopinterconnectioncapabilitiesinallmajorPOPsandmobilebasestationsinkeygeographicallocationsWholesaleaccesstoincumbentproviderswherefeasible,butdonotwholesalesourcesofcompetitiveadvantage(e.g.,enhanceddataservicessuchasIPVPNs)RolloutproductofferinginstagedmannertoensurequalityofserviceInternetconnectivityMobileinterconnectAccessportstobackboneWHOLESALE/CARRIERSUMMARYPreliminaryEconomicsPhaseICapEx(2000,2001):~100MRMBISPaccessplatform:~50MRMBOSS/Provisioningsystems:~50MRMBOpExexpectedtobe~10%ofrevenueby20021Marketshareandrevenueestimates-2002Mobile(backbone):15%ISPs:9% ~1.1BRMBAccessports:100%2Darkfiber:100%25yearNPV:~$2.1BRMBAssumeslaunchdateof3Q2000forleasedlinesandrelativelyaggressivemobilesharesPotentiallytoooptimisticKeyIssuestobeAddressedBackbonetechnologyplatform-QOSforvoicevs.lowercostdeployment?High-bandwidthinternationalgatewayparamounttodifferentiatingISPaccessFavorableregulatorybackingforcourtingregionalCTmobilecarriersEnsuringexistingVOIPgatewayscanservewholesaleneedsRevenueopportunityofwholesalingdarkfibervs.enablingcompetitionOrganizationalchallenges(1)IncludingallocationofbackboneOpEx(2)MarketestimatesbasedonrevenuegenerationbyCNCalonePOTENTIALWHOLESALECUSTOMERSINCLUDEISPs,MOBILEOPERATORS,ANDFIXEDLINECARRIERSISPsoffersignificantpotentialifCNCcanprovidesuperiorbandwidthaccessandtointernationalgatewayCurrentsatisfactionamongregionalISPsverylowInternationalgatewaylicenseinconjunctionwithhighbandwidthtrans-oceaniccarrieralliancecouldprovidevastlysuperiorserviceMobilecarrierswillbesearchingforlowercostalternativestocarrylongdistancetrafficduetointensifyingcompetitionCNC’snewhighcapacityVoIPnetworkandinternationalgatewaylikelytoyieldlowercostsFixedlinecarrierspotentiallylookingforalternativesExistinglong-haultransportinfrastructurelimitedChinaTelecomcouldevenbeapossiblecustomergivencurrentfocusonincreasingresidentialteledensityOVERALLWHOLESALEMARKETSIZEISSUBSTANTIAL

ANDGROWINGATAMODESTRATE

AnticipatedPriceDecreaseinLeasedLinesLimitsOverallRevenueGrowthLeasedLines-ISPMarketSize(RMBB)15TotalLeasedLines-Mobile99’-04’CAGRAccessPortsLeasedLines-Paging1818202226284%41%1%152%(1)9%(1)01’-04’CAGRSource:CNCteaminputs;foreignbenchmarks;BCGanalysisDarkFiber68%(1)CARRIERSSEEKINGALTERNATIVES...ISPsdefinitelyseekingalternativestoCTMobilecarrierslikelytofollow“Weneedatelecomserviceproviderthatisnotourcompetitor.”- Founder,Eastnet“ChinaTelecom,withtheirownnetworkdevelopmentplans,tendstostarveusoncapacityortoforceustopayinadvanceforexcesscapacity.”- Manager,Infohighway“ThefactthatittakesChinaTelecomtwomonthseverytimeweneedanextralinemakesitverydifficulttohaveourowncustomers.Wewantanotheroperatorwhocangetusleasedlinesfast.”- 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