氣候變化自然風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估工作介紹

氣候變化自然風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估工作介紹

PresentationonPhysicalImpactsWork

YinlongXU（許吟?。㊣nstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgricultureChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences(CAAS)Beijing,China中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究所Tel:+861082109766;Tel&Fax:+861082106012E-mail:3Mar.2010AdaptingtoClimateChangeinChina:China-UK-SwissPartnership第一頁，共二十四頁。內(nèi)容

Content工作進(jìn)展

Progress國(guó)家層面工作計(jì)劃

National-levelworkplan地方層面工作計(jì)劃

Province-levelworkplan未來工作

Futurework第二頁，共二十四頁。工作進(jìn)展

Progress第三頁，共二十四頁。國(guó)家層面工作計(jì)劃

National-levelworkplan農(nóng)業(yè)（中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院）

Agriculture(CAAS)草地畜牧業(yè)（中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)）

Grassland-livestock(CAU)水資源（南京水利科學(xué)研究院）Waterresources(NHRI)第四頁，共二十四頁。農(nóng)業(yè)（中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院）：

Agriculture(CAAS)（1）已經(jīng)發(fā)生的氣候變化影響的評(píng)價(jià)PhaseⅠ:Currentimpactandassessmentonclimatechange目標(biāo)1：氣候變化歷史影響的檢測(cè)Objective1:Detectthehistoricalimpactofclimatechange.目標(biāo)2：分析已經(jīng)發(fā)生的氣候變化與農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害損失、水資源、種植制度調(diào)整的關(guān)系Objective2:Analyzetherelationshipbetweenclimatechangeswhichhadhappenedandthelossofagro-meteorologicaldisasters,waterresources,croppingsystems.第五頁，共二十四頁。目標(biāo)3：評(píng)估已經(jīng)采取的適應(yīng)氣候變化措施Objective3:Assessadaptationmeasureswhichhavebeentakentoadapttoclimatechangeinthepast.目標(biāo)4：農(nóng)業(yè)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)處置措施評(píng)價(jià)及選擇Objective4:Assessmentandadoptionofagriculturaldisasterriskdisposalmeasures.目標(biāo)5：評(píng)估農(nóng)業(yè)對(duì)已發(fā)生氣候變化影響的脆弱性O(shè)bjective5:Evaluatethevulnerabilityaboutimpactofagricultureonclimatechange.第六頁，共二十四頁。（2）未來影響的評(píng)估PhaseⅡ:

Impactandassessmentforthefuture目標(biāo)1：評(píng)估模型的驗(yàn)證Objective1:ValidationofAssessmentModel.目標(biāo)2：未來氣候變化條件下中國(guó)種植區(qū)域與主要作物種植界限的變化及種植結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整戰(zhàn)略O(shè)bjective2:Undertheconditionsofclimatechangeinthefuture,thechangesincropplantingareaandmaincropsplantingboundariesandthestrategyofplantingstructuraladjustmentinChina.第七頁，共二十四頁。目標(biāo)3：未來氣候變化對(duì)中國(guó)主要糧食作物的影響評(píng)估Objective3:AssessmentthatclimatechangeinthefutureimpactsonmajorfoodcropsinChina.目標(biāo)4：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與脆弱性評(píng)估Objective4:Assessmentonriskandvulnerability.目標(biāo)5：農(nóng)業(yè)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理措施評(píng)估及建議Objective5:Assessmentandpropositionondisposalmeasuresofagriculturaldisasterrisk.第八頁，共二十四頁。（3）適應(yīng)措施和政策建議PhaseⅢ:Adaptationandpolicyrecommendations目標(biāo)1：我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)適應(yīng)氣候變化空間區(qū)域劃分Objective1:SpacedivisionaboutagriculturaladaptationtoclimatechangeinChina.目標(biāo)2：技術(shù)清單編制Objective2:Preparationoftechnical-list.目標(biāo)3：農(nóng)業(yè)適應(yīng)氣候變化的政策建議Objective3:Policyrecommendationsaboutagriculturaladaptationtoclimatechange.目標(biāo)4：省級(jí)適應(yīng)框架的完善Objective4:Completetheadaptationframeworkofprovinciallevel.第九頁，共二十四頁。草地畜牧業(yè)（中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)）

Grassland-livestock(CAU)目標(biāo)1：氣候變化對(duì)草地畜牧業(yè)影響的檢測(cè)Objective1Detectingtheimpactofclimatechangeongrasslandandlivestockhusbandry.

目標(biāo)2：全國(guó)層面的草地畜牧業(yè)氣候變化影響評(píng)估模型校驗(yàn)Objective2:Modeldevelopmentforassessmentoftheeffectsofclimatechangeonpasturelivestockproductionnationwide.目標(biāo)3：未來氣候?qū)Σ莸匦竽翗I(yè)的影響與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估Objective3:Assessmentofriskoffutureclimateonpasturelivestockproduction.目標(biāo)4：提出草地畜牧業(yè)適應(yīng)氣候變化的國(guó)家戰(zhàn)略和對(duì)策Objective4:Providenationalstrategiesofadaptationtoclimatechangeinpasturelivestockproduction.第十頁，共二十四頁。水資源（南京水利科學(xué)研究院）

Waterresources(NHRI)目標(biāo)1：完善全國(guó)層面的分布式氣候變化對(duì)水資源影響評(píng)估模型Objective1:ConsummateChina-wideassessmentmodelforclimatechangeimpactonwaterresources目標(biāo)2：檢測(cè)氣候變化對(duì)典型流域?qū)崪y(cè)徑流量變化的影響，綜合分析過去適應(yīng)極端干旱、洪澇災(zāi)害的經(jīng)驗(yàn)Objective2:Detecttheeffectofclimatechangeonactualmeasurementofstreamflowintypicalwatershed;comprehensivelyanalyzetheexperienceofpastadaptingtoextremedroughtandfloods目標(biāo)3：氣候變化對(duì)未來水資源的可能影響評(píng)估Objective3：AssessthepotentialimpactofclimatechangeonfuturewaterresourcesoverChina目標(biāo)4：水利適應(yīng)氣候變化的國(guó)家戰(zhàn)略和對(duì)策Objective4:Addressnationaladaptationstrategyofwaterindustrytoclimatechange.第十一頁，共二十四頁。地方層面工作計(jì)劃

Province-levelworkplan寧夏

Ningxia農(nóng)業(yè)

Agriculture

水資源

WaterResources

適應(yīng)技術(shù)示范

Adaptationcasestudy

內(nèi)蒙

InnerMongolia草地畜牧業(yè)Grassland-livestock水資源Waterresources適應(yīng)案例研究Adaptationcasestudy第十二頁，共二十四頁。省份1：內(nèi)蒙古Province1：InnerMongolia

Ⅰ：草地畜牧業(yè)（內(nèi)蒙古農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)）Ⅰ：Grassland-livestock(IMAgriculturalUniversity)

目標(biāo)1：氣候變化對(duì)內(nèi)蒙古草地畜牧業(yè)的影響評(píng)價(jià)

Objective1ClimatechangeimpactsriskassessmentforwholeInnerMongoliagrassland-livestock目標(biāo)2：未來氣候變化情景下內(nèi)蒙古草地畜牧業(yè)的影響預(yù)估Objective

2AssesstheCCriskimpactongrassland-livestockforwholeInnerMongoliagrasslandunderthefutureclimatescenarios

第十三頁，共二十四頁。Ⅱ：水資源（內(nèi)蒙古水利局）Ⅱ：

WaterResources

(HydrologicalBureauofInnerMongolia)目標(biāo)1：氣候變化對(duì)內(nèi)蒙古水資源的影響評(píng)估

Objective1DetectionofclimaticchangeimpactsonInnerMongoliawaterresource目標(biāo)2：氣候變化對(duì)未來水資源的可能影響評(píng)估Objective2Futureriskassessment目標(biāo)3：不同草原類型區(qū)適應(yīng)案例研究Objective3Casestudyofdifferentgrasslandtyperegionaboutwaterresources第十四頁，共二十四頁。Ⅲ：適應(yīng)案例研究Ⅲ：

TypicalCaseStudyforAdaptationRecommendations目標(biāo)1：典型草原草地畜牧業(yè)區(qū)——錫林浩特

Objective1

Typicalsteppegrasslandandanimalhusbandryarea–Xilinhaote目標(biāo)2：渾善達(dá)克沙地草地農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)——多倫

Objective2

Sandygrasslandagriculturalarea-Doron目標(biāo)3：荒漠草原農(nóng)牧交錯(cuò)帶——四子王旗

Objective3

Ecotoneofdesertandgrassland-Siziwangqi第十五頁，共二十四頁。第十六頁，共二十四頁。省份2：寧夏Province2：NingxiaⅠ：農(nóng)業(yè)（寧夏氣象研究所）Ⅰ：

Agriculture(NingxiaMeteorologicalResearchInstitute)目標(biāo)1：歷史氣候變化對(duì)寧夏農(nóng)業(yè)影響的檢測(cè)

Objective1

AnalyzetheimpactofpresentclimatechangeonagricultureinNingxia目標(biāo)2：未來影響的評(píng)估。評(píng)估未來氣候變化條件下對(duì)寧夏農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的可能影響和脆弱性，考慮極端氣候事件（側(cè)重在干旱、高溫等）的影響，進(jìn)行農(nóng)業(yè)綜合適應(yīng)氣候變化措施的示范和效果評(píng)估，從農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害的角度提出對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)有指導(dǎo)意義的適應(yīng)對(duì)策建議。

Objective

2Assessthefutureagriculturalproductionriskofclimatechange.AssessthepossibleimpactandvulnerabilityofclimatechangeonagriculturalproductioninNingxia,intermsofextremeclimateevents,especiallydroughtandhottemperatureevents.;demonstrateandevaluatethecomprehensivetechnologiestoadapttoclimatechange;provideindicativesuggestioninadaptingtoagro-meteorologicalhazards.目標(biāo)3：氣候變化綜合對(duì)策分析Objective3

Comprehensiveagriculturaladaptationrecommendationstoclimatechange第十七頁，共二十四頁。Ⅱ：水資源（寧夏水利局）Ⅱ：

WaterResources(HydrologicalBureauofNingxia)目標(biāo)1：構(gòu)建全國(guó)層面的分布式氣候變化對(duì)水資源影響評(píng)估模型Objective1BuilddistributedassessmentmodelinNingxia目標(biāo)2：氣候變化對(duì)歷史水資源的影響檢測(cè)Objective

2RiskassessmentsforthemainriversinNX目標(biāo)3：氣候變化對(duì)未來水資源的可能影響評(píng)估Objective

3Waterbalanceassessmentforcasestudyareaandpolicyrecommendations第十八頁，共二十四頁。Ⅲ：適應(yīng)案例研究Ⅲ：

TypicalCaseStudyforAdaptationRecommendations目標(biāo)1：主要研究氣候變暖條件下推行冬小麥復(fù)種牧草、實(shí)現(xiàn)“一年兩季”、提高冷涼山區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效益的可行性

Objective1Undertheconditionofclimatewarming,Mainlytostudytheimplementationofrevaccinationofwinterwheatandpasture,toachieve"one-yeartwoseasons,"andpromotethefeasibilityofagriculturalproductionefficiencyincoldmountainareas.

目標(biāo)2：主要進(jìn)行氣候變暖條件下中晚熟玉米新品種引進(jìn)與示范栽培Objective2Undertheconditionofclimatewarming,mainlytointroduceandcultivatenewvarietiesoflate-maturingmaize

目標(biāo)3：主要進(jìn)行適應(yīng)氣候變暖條件下中晚熟馬鈴薯新品種引進(jìn)與示范栽培

Objective3Undertheconditionofadaptationtoclimatewarming,mainlytointroduceandcultivatenewvarietiesoflate-maturingpotatoes.

目標(biāo)4：主要進(jìn)行豆科牧草（紫花苜蓿、紅豆草）豐產(chǎn)及養(yǎng)畜利用技術(shù)示范研究Objective4Mainlytostudythehighyieldofleguminousforage(alfalfa,Onobrychis)andusageoftechnologyinlivestock

第十九頁，共二十四頁。What’snewrelativetotheformerprojectsPolicy-orientedQuestion-basedFromrunofftohydrologyconcentrationandroutingTypicalregionshighlightedMorepracticalforcasestudyCombinat