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Financingofwindpowerdevelopmentswithinthecontextofmarketbasedsupportmechanismsandrelatedpoliticalrisks

PresentationatEWEC2006,AthenFinance&InsuranceSession

Inger-AnneBlindheim–GreenStreamNetworkASAgendaIntroductiontoGreenStreamNetworkTheSwedish–NorwegianelcertificatemarketCasestudy:AustevollWindAS–21MWConclusionsGreenStreamNetwork

LargestindependentcompanywithinconsultingandtradeofCO2andgreencertificatesinNorthernEuropeAnnualtradingvolumeofabove10TWhgreencertificatesKeycompetence:CalculateanddemonstrategreenvaluesAnalyseandoptimizetradingstrategiesforgreenvalues(certificates,CERsandEUallowances)CDM/JIproject:PIN,PDD,registrationandERPASorportfoliomanagementofCERsDevelopmentandfinancingofrenewableenergyprojects–inco-operationwiththeownersandtechnicaladvisorsFormostwindpowerprojects,greenvaluesarethekeytoprofitabilityandfinancingOwnedbythemanagement(60%)andHSHNordbank/HSHGudmeInvestmentBank

Annualturnover2005:1,8millionEuro–creditratingAAA20employes–officesinNorway,Sweden,Finland,Germany,France,EstoniaandLithuaniaEnvironmentalFinance:BestBrokeroftheyear2004and2005–tradeofgreencertificatesinEuropeex-UKOutlineoftheSwedish-Nowegianelcertificatemarket(1/2)TheSwedishelcertificatemarketstartedupinMay2003OriginaltargetoperationofajointSwedish-NorwegianelcertificatemarketfromJanuary1,2006-postponedtoJanuary1,2007.........Proposedtolastupto2030Purpose:releaselargescaleinvestmentsinrenewableenergy,decreasedfossilefuelproduction;andimprovedpowerbalanceOutlineoftheSwedish-Nowegianelcertificatemarket(2/2)15yearselcertificateproductionperiodperprojectEachpowerconsumer(exceptenergyintensiveindustry)obligedtoconsumeacertainquotaofrenewableenergythroughelcertificatesIncreasingelcertificatequotalevelcombinedwithpenaltyfeefornon-complianceElcertificatescanbefreelytradedinthemarket:spot,futures,forwardsElcertificatescanbeaccumulatedandsavedTechnologyneutral?Time-schedulefortheelcertificatemarket

OctJanDecFebMarAprNovJuneMayNorway2005200615/02(?)Lawproposaltoparliament20/06(?)Approval01/11–01/12possiblepublicreviewandadditionallawmodification17/3lawproposaltotheparliamentMarch-Junelawproposalattheenergycomittee20/06ApprovalSweden20052006JunJanDecNovOctFebMarAprMayClarifylawprinciplesincoordinationwithNorwayClarifylawprinciplesincoordinationwithSwedenFeb-JunelawproposalattheEnergycomitteeOctJanDecFebMarAprNovJuneMayNorway2005200615/02(?)Lawproposaltoparliament20/06(?)Approval01/11–01/12possiblepublicreviewandadditionallawmodification17/3lawproposaltotheparliamentMarch-Junelawproposalattheenergycomittee20/06ApprovalSweden20052006JunJanDecNovOctFebMarAprMayClarifylawprinciplesincoordinationwithNorwayClarifylawprinciplesincoordinationwithSwedenFeb-JunelawproposalattheEnergycomitteeOctJanDecFebMarAprNovJuneMayNorway2005200615/02(?)Lawproposaltoparliament20/06(?)Approval01/11–01/12possiblepublicreviewandadditionallawmodification17/3lawproposaltotheparliamentMarch-Junelawproposalattheenergycomittee20/06ApprovalSweden20052006JunJanDecNovOctFebMarAprMayClarifylawprinciplesincoordinationwithNorwayOctJanDecFebMarAprNovJuneMayNorway2005200615/02(?)Lawproposaltoparliament20/06(?)Approval01/11–01/12possiblepublicreviewandadditionallawmodification17/3lawproposaltotheparliamentMarch-Junelawproposalattheenergycomittee20/06ApprovalSweden20052006JunJanDecNovOctFebMarAprMayOctJanDecFebMarAprNovJuneMayNorway2005200615/02(?)Lawproposaltoparliament20/06(?)ApprovalOctJanDecFebMarAprNovJuneMayNorway2005200615/02(?)Lawproposaltoparliament20/06(?)ApprovalOctJanDecFebMarAprNovJuneMayNorway2005200615/02(?)Lawproposaltoparliament20/06(?)ApprovalOctJanDecFebMarAprNovJuneMayOctJanDecFebMarAprNovJuneMayNorway2005200615/02(?)Lawproposaltoparliament20/06(?)ApprovalNorway20052006Norway200520062005200615/02(?)Lawproposaltoparliament20/06(?)Approval01/11–01/12possiblepublicreviewandadditionallawmodification17/3lawproposaltotheparliamentMarch-Junelawproposalattheenergycomittee20/06ApprovalSweden20052006JunJanDecNovOctFebMarAprMay01/11–01/12possiblepublicreviewandadditionallawmodification17/3lawproposaltotheparliamentMarch-Junelawproposalattheenergycomittee20/06ApprovalSweden20052006JunJanDecNovOctFebMarAprMay01/11–01/12possiblepublicreviewandadditionallawmodification17/3lawproposaltotheparliamentMarch-JunelawproposalattheEnergyCommittee20/06ApprovalSweden20052006JunJanDecNovOctFebMarAprMaySweden20052006Sweden20052006200520062006JunJanDecNovOctFebMarAprMayClarifylawprinciplesincoordinationwithNorwayClarifylawprinciplesincoordinationwithNorwayClarifylawprinciplesincoordinationwithSwedenFeb-JunelawproposalattheEnergyCommitteeRiskofmarketbasedincentives

PoliticalriskPriceriskHedgingpremiumsPricedevelopment–Nord-Poolover30days

Pricedevelopment–powerandelcertificatemarket

18023028033038043048053022.419.517.615.711.87.95.101.1126.1123.1224.118.217.315.412.58.65.71.826.822.919.1015.1112.12ElcertificatePowerpriceElcert+PowerpriceSEK/MWhAustevollVindAS–21MW,NorwayAustevollVindASAustevollVindAS–Norway3smallprojects,total21MWlocatedwithinadistanceof15kmSomeofthebestwind-parksinNorway:Stablewind-speedof7,9to8,3m/sClosetoexistinggridLowinfrastructurecostsGridconnectionconfirmedPowerdeficitinthesurroundingareaMildweather-conditionsandnoicingIncreasingpowerpricesElcertificatescouldcontributetoapprox.40%increasedincomeontopofthepowerpricesInternalrateofreturnonequity>24%AustevollVindAS–NorwayComparisonelcertificatevs.investmentsupportregimeConclusionsProperlyadaptedmarketbasedincentiveswithhighambitionlevelforrenewableenergymayresultin:Themostcost-efficientprojectswithlowestmarginalcostwillbedevelopedfirstOnlythebestprojectswillbedevelopedHigherreturnoninvestmentforinvestorsatthecurrentmaximuminvestentsupportlevelintheEU–25%RenewableenergyprojectsmorecompetitivetofossileandnuclearpowerInamarketbasedpowersystem,theelcertificatemarketwillresultininvestmentsinnewcapacity,reducingthepressureforincreasedpowerpricesfortheconsumersPriceriskformarketmechanismsmaybehandledthroughriskhedging,buttheprojectownerloosespartoftheupsideinreturnofsafesleepPoliticalriskmustbeminimalizedthrough:EfficientpoliticalprocessesAclearlegalframeworkensuringapredicable,longtermmarket(minimum20yearshorizon)Cross-bordersystems–onegovernmentcannotchangethemarketsystemitselfInvestmentsupportregimesaresubjecttoannualbudgetallocations,Investmentsintherangeof10–15TWhrequiredtoimprovetheNorwegianpowerbalancewillbeaheavyburdenontheannualbudgetsLeadtimeforprojectdevelopmentis

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