b1 business valuation1現(xiàn)金流量折現(xiàn)模型參數(shù)

Business該模型有三個參數(shù)：現(xiàn)金流量、資本成本和時間序列（n）它們的現(xiàn)金流都是陸續(xù)產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)值投資項目的是有限的，而企業(yè)的是無限的，因

這些差別，也正是企業(yè)價值評估比項目評價更的地I、資本成本的估計：已學(xué)?！綧J：注意一致性II、未來現(xiàn)金流量的數(shù)據(jù)企業(yè)價值=預(yù)測期價值+后續(xù)期價值［現(xiàn)金流量t+1÷（資本成本-增長率

【 cashcashflows(FCF)=aftertaxoperating(preinterest)cashflows–netinvestmentsincashflowstoequity(FCFE)=FCF–(netinterestpaid-Net股權(quán)現(xiàn)金流量=實體現(xiàn)金流量- 也可以稱為“股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流量”Dividendcapacity 股利現(xiàn)金流量是企業(yè)分配給股權(quán)投資人2018/122018/12TaiCohas263millionsharesinissueandthecurrentmarketvalueofitsdebtis$400million.Itsmostrecentprofitbeforeinterestandtaxwas$132·0million,afterdeductingtaxallowabledepreciationandnon-cashexpensesof$27·4million.TaiComakesanannualcashinvestmentof$24·3millioninnon-currentassetsandworkingcapital.Itisestimatedthatitscashflowswillgrowby3%annuallyfortheforeseeablefuture.TaiCo’scurrentcostofcapitalisestimatedtobe11%.EstimatesthevalueofequityofTaicashflows(FCF)=aftertaxoperating(preinterest)cashflows–netinvestmentsincashflowstoequity(FCFE)=FCF–netinterestEquityvalueofTaiCopriortocashflowsto=$132·0m–($132·0mx0·2)+$27·4m–$24·3m=$108·7m=$108·7mx1·03/(0·11–0·03)=$1,399·5m,say$1,400mEquityvalue=$1,400m–$400m=$1,000m201606Q1-Appendix1:ExpecteddividendcapacitypriortolargeprojectOperatingprofit(15%x(1·08x$300Lessinterest(5%of$70Lesstaxation(25%x($48·6million–3·5Lessinvestmentinworkingcapital($0·10x(0·08x$300Lessinvestmentinadditionalnon-currentassets($0·20x(0·08x$300LessinvestmentinCashflowsfromdomesticCashflowsfromPontacCo’sdividendremittances(seeappendixAdditionaltaxpayableonPontacCo’sprofits(5%x$5·6Dividend201312建議最好提前嘗試MakonisCo,alisted producingmotorcars,wantstoacquireNuvolaCo,anengineering involvedinproducinginnovativedevicesforcars.MakonisCoiskeentoincorporatesomeofNuvolaCo’sinnovativedevicesintoitscarsandtherebyboostingsalesThefollowingfinancialinformationisprovidedforthetwoMakonisNuvolaCurrentshareNumberofissued210200EquityAssetItisthoughtthatcombiningthetwocompanieswillresultinseveralbenefits. cashflowstofirmofthecombinedwillbe$216millionincurrentvalueterms,butthesewillincreasebyanannualgrowthrateof5%forthenextfouryears,beforerevertingtoanannualgrowthrateof2·25%inperpetuity.Inadditiontothis,combiningthecompanieswillresultincashsynergybenefitsof$20millionperyear,forthenextfouryears.Thesesynergybenefitsarenotsubjecttoanyinflationaryincreaseandnosynergybenefitswilloccurafterthe Thedebt-to-equityratioofthecombined willbe40:60inmarketvaluetermsanditisexpectedthatthe ’scostofdebtwillbe4·55%.Thecorporationtaxrateis20%,thecurrentrisk rateofreturnis2%andthemarketriskpremiumis7%.Itcanbeassumedthatthecombined ’sassetbetaistheweightedaverageofMakonisCo’sandNuvolaCo’sassetbetas,weightedbytheircurrentmarketvalues. EstimatetheadditionalequityvaluecreatedbycombiningNuvolaCoandMakonisCo,basedonthecashflowstofirmmethod.Commentontheresultsobtainedandbrieflydiscusstheassumptions (13 ,costofAsset(1·2×480+0·9×1,218)/(480+1,218)=Equity0·985×(60+40×0·8)/60=Costof2%+1·51×7%=Costof12·57%×0·6+4·55%×0·8×0·4= equityYears1to4($1234cashflowsbeforesynergy(growingatcashflowsPVofcashflowsatTotalPVofcashflows(years1to4)=$852·39millionTotalPVofcashflows(years5toperpetuity)=262·55×1·0225/(0·09–0·0225)/1·09^4=$2,817·51millionTotalvaluetofirm=$3,669·90millionValueattributabletoequityholders$3,669·90million×0·6=$2,201·94Additionalvaluecreatedfromthe=$2,201·94million–($1,218million+$480=$503·94AlthoughtheequitybetaandthereforetheriskoftheismorethanMakonisCoonitsown,probablyduetoNuvolaCo’shigherbusinessrisk(individualcompanies’values.reflectedbythehigherassetbeta),overallthebenefitsfromgrowthinexcessoftherisk rateandadditionalsynergieshaveledtoanincreaseinthevalueofcombined whencomparedtoHowever,anumberofassumptionshavebeenmadeinobtainingthevaluation,forexample:Theassumptionofgrowthofcashflowsinperpetuityandwhetherthisisrealisticornot;Whetherthecalculationofthecombined ’sassetbetawhenbasedontheweightedaverageofmarketvaluesisbasedongoodevidenceornot;Ithasbeenassumedthatthefiguressuchasgrowthrates,tax cashflows,risk rateofreturn,riskpremium,andsoonareaccurateanddonotchangeinthefuture.Inallthesecircumstances,itmaybeappropriatetoundertake ysistodeterminehowchangesinthevariableswouldimpactonthevalueofthecombined ,andwhetherthelargeincreaseinvalueisjustified.MarkMarketvaluesofMakonisCoandNuvolaCo assetbeta equity :costof value:years1to value:years5toperpetuity value:valuetoequityholdersandadditionalvalueCommentanddiscussionof

1111312Max也稱價格乘數(shù)法或可比價值法等。其基本做法是：首先，凈利）；其次，確定一組可以比較 潤、實體價值/稅后經(jīng)營凈利潤、量201306Q2改編HavCoisapubliclylisted involvedintheproductionofhighlytechnicalandsophisticatedelectroniccomponentsforcomplexmachinery.AnewindustrythatHavCoislookingtoventureintoisbiotechnology,whichhasbeenexpandingrapidlyandtherearestrongindicationsthatthisrecentgrowthissettocontinue.StrandCoisaprivate operatinginthebiotechnologyindustryDiscussionshavetaken ceaboutthepossibilityofStrandCobeingacquiredbyHavCo.StrandCo’smanagershaveindicatedthattheconsortiumofownersishappyforthenegotiationstoproceed.StrandCoisoftheopinionthatmostofitsvalueisinitsintangibleassets,comprisingin lectualcapital.Therefore,thepremiumpayableonacquisitionshouldbebasedonthepresentvaluetoinfinityoftheaftertaxexcessearningsthe hasgeneratedinthepastthreeyears,overtheaveragereturnoncapitalemployedofthebiotechnologicalindustry.However,HavCoisoftheopinionthatthepremiumshouldbeassessedonsynergybenefitscreatedbytheacquisitionandthechangesinvalue,duetothechangesintheprice-to-earnings(PE)ratiobeforeandaftertheGivenbelowareextractsoffinancialinformationforHavCofor2013andStrandCofor2011,2012and2013:HavStrandYearended30Earningsbefore$$$$Non-currentCurrentSharecapitalNon-currentCurrentThecurrentaveragePEratioofthebiotechnologyindustryis16·4timesandithasbeenestimatedthatStrandCo’sPEratiois10%higherthanthis.However,itisthoughtthatthePEratioofthecombined wouldfallto14·5timesaftertheacquisition.Theannualaftertaxearningswillincreaseby$140millionduetosynergybenefitsresultingfromcombiningthetwocompanies.Bothcompaniespaytaxat20%perannumandStrandCo’sannualcostofcapitalisestimatedat7%.HavCo’scurrentsharepriceis$9·24pershare.Thebiotechnologyindustry’spre-taxreturnoncapitalemployediscurrentlyestimatedtobe20%perannum.BasedonthetwodifferentopinionsexpressedbyHavCoandStrandCo,calculatethe umacquisitionpremiumpayableineachcase. (6marks)201306Q2-umpremiumbasedonprice-to-earnings(PE)ratioStrandCoestimatedPEratio=16·4×1·10=18·0StrandCoprofitaftertax:$397m×0·8=$317·6mStrandCo,currentvalue=$317·6m×18·0=$5,716·8mHavCo,currentvalue=$9·24×2,400shares=$22,176·0mHavCoprofitaftertax=$1,980m×0·8=$1,584·0m value=($1,584m+$317·6m+$140·0m)×14·5=umpremium=$29,603·2m–($22,176·0m+$5,716·8)=presentvaluetoinfinityoftheaftertaxexcessearningsthe hasgeneratedinthepastthreeyears,overtheaveragereturnoncapitalemployedofthebiotechnologicalindustry.umpremiumbasedonexcessearningsThismethodissimilartotheEVA?methodwhichmeasuresexcessreturn.Averagepre-taxearnings:(397+370+352)/3=$373·0mAveragecapital[(882+210–209)+(838+208–180)+(801+198–140)]/3=Excessannualvalue/annualpremium=373m–(20%×$869·3m)=$199·1mAfter-taxannualpremium=$199·1m×0·8=$159·3mPVofannualpremium(assumeperpetuity)=$159·3m/0·07=$2,275·7mAccordingtothismethod,the umpremiumpayableis$2,275·7mintotal.201412Q1改編AvemCo,aUK-based specialisinginproducingandservicingbusinessjets,hasapproachedNaharaCo(theshareholderofFugaeCo)withaproposaltoacquireFugaeCofor$1,200million.NaharaCoexpectstoreceiveapremiumofatleast30%ontheestimatedequityvalueofFugaeCo,ifitissold.GivenbelowareextractsfromthemostrecentstatementsoffinancialpositionofbothAvemCoandFugaeCo.Avem$Fugae$SharecapitalNon-currentCurrentTotalcapitalandEachAvemCoshareiscurrentlytradingat$7·50,whichisamultipleof7·2ofits cashflowtoequity.AvemCoexpectsthatthetotal cashflowstoequityofthecombinedwillincreaseby$40millionduetosynergyAfteraddingthesynergybenefitsof$40million,AvemCothenexpectsthemultipleofthe cashflowofthetoincreasetoFugae cashflowtoequityiscurrentlyestimated$76·5millionanditisexpectedtogenerateareturnonequityof11%.Overthepastfewyears,FugaeCohasreturned77·3%ofitsannual cashflowtoequitybacktoNaharaCo,whileretainingthebalancefornewinvestments.EstimatestheadditionalvaluecreatedforAvemCo,ifitacquiresFugaeCo(10marks)AvemCo,currentvalue=$7·5/share×1,600millionshares=$12,000mThegrowthrateiscalculatedonthebasisoftherbmodel.FugaeCo,estimateofgrowthrate=0·227×0·11=0·025=FugaeCo,currentvalueestimate=$76·5million×1·025/(0·11–0·025)=$922·5mAvemCo, cashflowtoequity=$12,000million/7·2=$1,666·7m ,estimatedadditionalvaluecreated([$1,666·7m+$76·5m+$40m]×7·5)–($12,000m+$922·5m)=$451·5mGaintoNaharaforsellingFugaeCo,30%×$922·5m=$276·8mAvemCowillgain$174·7millionoftheadditionalvaluecreated,$451·5m–$276·8m=201406VogelCo,alistedengineering ,manufactureslargescale VogelCoiscurrentlyconsideringacquiringToriCo,an ,whichhasthreedepartments.DepartmentAmanufacturesmachineryforindustrialepartofVogelCo,asitcontainsthenewbeunbundled,withtheassetsattachedtoDepartmentCsoldandDepartmentBbeingspunoffintoanewGivenbelowareextractsoffinancialinformationforthetwocompaniesfortheyearended30April2014.$$SalesProfitbeforedepreciation,interestandtaxPre-taxGivenbelowareextractsoffinancialinformationforthetwocompaniesfortheyearended30April2014.$$Non-currentCurrent7%unsecured–Othernon-currentandcurrentSharecapitalShareofcurrentandnon-currentassetsandprofitofToriCo’sthreedepartments:Shareofcurrentandnon-currentShareofPBDITandpre-taxOtherItisestimatedthatforDepartmentC,therealisablevalueofitsnon-currentassetsis100%oftheirbookvalue,butitscurrentassets’realisablevalueisonly90%oftheirbookvalue.ThecostsrelatedtoclosingDepartmentCareestimatedtobe$3million.ThefundsraisedfromthedisposalofDepartmentCwillbeusedtopayoffToriCo’sothernon-currentandcurrentliabilities.The7%unsecuredbondwillbetakenoverbyNdegeCo.Itcanbeassumedthatthecurrentmarketvalueofthebondisequaltoitsbookvalue.Atpresent,around10%ofDepartmentB’sPBDITcomefromsalesmadetoDepartmentC.NdegeCo’scostofcapitalisestimatedtobe10%.ItisestimatedthatinthefirstyearofoperationNdegeCo’scashflowstofirmwillgrowby20%,andthenby5·2%annuallyThetaxrateapplicabletoallthecompaniesis20%,andNdegeCocanclaim10%taxallowabledepreciationonitsnon-currentassets.ItcanbeassumedthattheamountoftaxallowabledepreciationisthesameastheinvestmentneededtomaintainNdegeCo’soperations.VogelCo’scurrentsharepriceis$3pershareanditisestimatedthatToriCo’sprice-to-earnings(PE)ratiois25%higherthanVogelCo’sPEratio.Aftertheacquisition,whenDepartmentAespartofVogelCo,itisestimatedthatVogelCo’sPEratiowillincreasebyItisestimatedthatthecombined ’sannualafter-taxearningswillincreaseby$7millionduetothesynergybenefitsresultingfromcombiningVogelCoandDepartmentA.Estimate,showingallrelevantcalculations,umpremiumVogelCocouldpaytoacquireToriCo,ex iningtheapproachtakenandanyassumptionsmade. (14marks)ApproachThe umpremiumpayableisequaltothe additionalbenefitcreatedfromtheacquisitionofToriCo,withnoincreaseinvaluefortheshareholdersofVogelCo(althoughtheshareholdersofVogelCowouldprobablynotapproveoftheacquisitioniftheydonotgainfromit).Theadditionalbenefitcanbeestimatedasthesumofthecashgained(orlost)fromsellingtheassetsofDepartmentC,spinningoffDepartmentBandintegratingDepartmentA,lessthesumofthevaluesofVogelCoandToriCoasseparatecompanies.CashgainedfromsellingtheassetsofDepartmentC=(20%$98·2m)+(20%×$46·5m×0·9)–($20·2+$3m)=$19·64m$8·37m–$23·2m=ValuecreatedfromspinningoffDepartmentBintoNdegeCocashflowofNdege $CurrentshareofPBDIT(0·4 Less:attributabletoDepartmentC(10%) Less:taxallowabledepreciation(0·4×98·2×0·10)(3·93)Profitsbeforetax Tax cash ValueofNdegeCoPresentvalueofcashflowinyear1:$7·62m×1·2/1·1=Add:present