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July
2023Oil
Market
ContextSaudi
Arabia
and
Russia
extend/deepen
production
cutsSaudiArabiaannounced
onJuly3rd
thatit
was
extendingits
voluntary1mb/dproductioncut
fromJuly
into
August.
TheKingdom’s
crude
production
is
expected
to
fall
to
~9
mb/d
–
a
two-year
low.
Simultaneously,
Russia
announced
itwould
be
cutting
an
additional
500
kb/d
from
crude
exports
in
August
and
Algeria
announced
a
20
kb/d
cut
for
thesame
month.Mixed-messages
on
the
global
economy
and
oil
demandNegative
economic
sentiment
continues
to
weigh
on
markets,
but
oil
demand
in
the
world’s
largest
consumingcountries
has
surprised
tothe
upside.In
the
US,
the
world’s
largest
oil
consumer,
both
economic
data
and
oil
demand
continue
to
be
revised
up.
Estimatesof
1Q23
GDP
was
revised
up
to
2.0%
in
June
after
May
estimates
pegged
it
at
just
1.3%.
Additionally,
latest
final
oildemand
data,
for
April
2023,
came
innearly
500
kb/dabove
estimates.Official
PMI
data
showed
China’s
manufacturing
sector
contracted
for
a
third
consecutive
month
in
June.
However,
thecountry’s
oil
demand
has
remained
robust,
soaring
toa
record
high
in
April
and
falling
slightlyin
Mayto
the
2nd
highestlevel
on
record.Furthermore,
economic
and
oil
demand
growth
in
other
non-OECD
countries,
including
India
and
Brazil,
continue
toexceed
and
defy
economists’
expectations
of
an
impending
slowdown.In
contrast,
demand
remains
subdued
across
OECD
Europe
where
the
HCOB
Eurozone
Manufacturing
PMI
hasindicated
a
contraction
for
12-consecutive
months.
The
region’s
oil
demand
in
1H23
averaged
~150
kb/d
below
year-ago
levels.US
begins
SPR
buybackThe
US
Department
of
Energy
has
announced
plans
to
buyback
at
least
12
mb
of
oil
for
the
Strategic
PetroleumReserve
(SPR)
this
year,
including
6
mb
already
contracted
for
delivery
in
August
and
September.
On
July
7th,
theDOE
issued
a
solicitation
for
an
additional
6
mb
for
delivery
in
October
and
November
and
noted
that
they
will
pursueadditional
repurchase
opportunities
as
“market
conditions
allow.”
The
US
SPR
has
fallen
to
a
40-year
low
of
347
mbfollowing
a~250
mb
drawdown
over
the
past
18-months.22023
Forecast
Highlights:?
Global
demand:?
IEA
and
OPEC
remain
fairly
aligned
on
global
demand
growth
(~2.2-2.4
mb/d),
while
EIA
sees
lower
growth
(1.8
mb/d).
IEAcontinues
to
see
~0.7
mb/d
higher
Chinese
demand
growth
this
year
vs.
EIA
and
OPEC.
Meanwhile,
OPEC
sees
more
robustdemand
in
Russia,Africa,
the
Middle
East
andother
non-OECDcountries
compared
to
IEAandEIA.?
IEA
revised
down
its
2023
demand
growth
forecast
by
0.2
mb/d
this
month
primarily
on
weaker
OECD
Europe
and
Middle
Eastdemand.
Meanwhile,
EIA
revised
up
its
demand
growth
by
0.2
mb/d
on
stronger
forecasts
for
Europe,
Brazil,
and
non-OECD
Asia.OPECrevisedupitsforecast
by0.1
mb/d
onstronger-than-expected
2Q23
demand
in
China
andthe
US.?
Non-OPEC
and
OPEC
NGL
supply:?
IEAandEIAboth
nowseenon-OPECandOPECNGLsupplygrowingthisyearby1.9
mb/d.
OPECseeslower
growth
at
1.5
mb/d.?
IEA
revised
up
its
non-OPEC
supply
growth
forecast
by
0.1
mb/d
led
by
higher
Russia
and
US
projections.
Meanwhile,
EIA
reviseddown
its
non-OPEC
growth
forecast
by
0.2
mb/d
on
weaker
projections
for
Norway
and
South
America.
OPEC’s
annual
forecastremained
unchanged
thismonth
asupward
revisions
to
1H23offset
downward
revisions
to
2H23.?
The
largest
divergence
in
supplyforecasts
is
for
Russian
production.
OPEC
sees
a
0.75
mb/d
decline
in
Russian
output
this
year
vs.IEA’sandEIA’sforecast
of
a0.2-0.3
mb/d
annualdecline.?
All
three
forecasters
expectthe
US
to
bethe
largest
driverof
non-OPECsupplygrowth,
adding~1
mb/d
of
newsupplythisyear.?
“Call
on
OPEC”:?
IEA
and
OPEC
see
the
“call
on
OPEC”
rising
to
30.1-30.4
mb/d
in
the
second
half
of
the
year.
This
implies
a
~2
mb/d
global
supplyshortfall
in
2H23ifOPECproduction
were
to
remain
constant
at
Junelevels
(28.19
mb/d).?
June
OPEC
production:?
OPEC
secondary
sources
showOPEC
productionroseby0.09mb/din
June
to28.19mb/dledbya56kb/dincreasefromIrananda54
kb/d
increase
in
Iraq.
IEA
estimates
show
OPEC
crude
production
remained
flat
month-on-month
in
June
at
28.7
mb/d.
IEAestimates
ahigher
production
figure
for
Iran
andUAEvs.OPECsecondary
sources.?
OECD
inventories:?
IEA
estimates
OECD
commercial
inventories
rose
by
5.4
mb
in
May
to
2,824
mb
and
stood
92.2
mb
below
the
five-year
average.OPEC
estimatesOECDcommercial
stocksroseby20.2mbin
May
to2,815
mbandstood101mbbelowthelatestfive-year
averageand140mb
below
the
2015-2019average.32024
Forecast
Highlights:OPEC
issued
its
inaugural2024outlook
this
month?
Global
demand:?
OPEC’s
inaugural
2024forecast
shows
demandgrowth
slowing
to
2.2mb/d
from
2.4mb/dthis
year.
This
is
double
IEA’s
forecast
forof
1.1
mb/d
and0.6
mb/d
aboveEIA’sforecast
of
1.6
mb/d.?
IEA
sees
OECD
demand
declining
by
0.3
mb/d
next
year
while
OPEC
and
EIA
both
forecast
0.3
mb/d
growth.
Additionally,
OPECsees0.2
mb/d
stronger
demandgrowth
in
the
Middle
Eastnextyearcompared
to
both
IEAandEIA.?
Notably,
OPEC
shows
quarterly
demand
reaching
105.3
mb/d
by
4Q24
–
which
is
~4
mb/d
higher
than
all
three
agencies’
estimatesfor
the
most
recent
quarter,
2Q23.?
Despite
having
a
lower
y/y
demand
growth
forecast,
IEA
sees
higher
demand
levels
than
EIA
for
most
of
2024
due
to
a
higher
2023baseline
forecast.
IEAsees
quarterly
demand
risingto
104.5
mb/d
by4Q24
vs.EIA’s103.2
mb/d.?
Non-OPEC
and
OPEC
NGL
supply:?
Both
IEA
and
EIA
see
non-OPEC
and
OPEC
NGL
supply
growing
by
1.0-1.2
mb/d
in
2024.
OPEC
sees
slightly
faster
growth
at
1.5mb/d
primarilydueto
ahigher
US
growth
forecast.?
Notably,
IEA
and
EIA
both
see
US
production
growth
slowing
to
0.4
mb/d
next
year
from
>1.0
mb/d
this
year.
Despite
a
significantslowdown,
the
USis
stillthe
strongest
driverof
non-OPEC
supplygrowth
in
2024.?
“Call
on
OPEC”:?
IEA’s
balance
implies
OPEC
would
need
to
produce
an
average
29.2
mb/d
in
2024
to
balance
the
market.
This
implies
a
~1
mb/dsupplyshortfall
ifOPECproduction
were
to
remain
at
June2023levels
(28.2
mb/d).?
EIA’s
balance
implies
OPEC
would
need
to
produce
an
average
of
28.7
mb/d
in
2024
to
balance
the
market,
implying
a
0.5
mb/dglobalsupplyshortfall
ifOPECproduction
remained
at
June2023levels.?
OPEC’s
balance
implies
a
30.2
mb/d
“Call
on
OPEC”,
implying
a
2.0
mb/d
global
supply
shortfall
if
OPEC
production
remainsconstant
at
June2023levels.?
OPEC’s
2024balanceis
~1
mb/d
tighter
than
IEA’sprimarilydueto
ahigher
demandforecast.42023
Outlook
Comparison5Summary
of
2023
Balances
and
Revisions?
IEA
loosened
its
2023
forecast
by0.4
mb/d
this
month
onlowerdemand
(OECDEurope)
andstronger
non-OPEC
(Russia)
and
OPEC
NGL
supply.Meanwhile,EIA
tightened
its
2023forecast
by0.3
mb/d
onstronger
demand
(Brazil
and
Europe)
and
weaker
non-OPECproduction
(Norwayand
South
America).?
IEA
and
OPECsee
the
“Call
onOPEC”rising
inthe
second
half
of
the
yearand
exceedingrecent
OPECproduction
levelsby~2mb/d,
implyingasignificant
global
supply
shortfall.2023
Balance
SummaryUpdated
ForecastRevisions
to
Last
Month's
Forecast1Q23100.5101.6100.145.545.545.555.056.154.672.373.172.629.328.828.528.128.527.51.22Q23101.4101.2101.045.645.545.655.955.755.372.772.972.828.828.328.428.728.428.20.13Q23103.1102.0101.846.946.846.556.255.155.373.071.973.34Q23103.3103.2101.846.446.246.656.957.055.373.172.473.72023102.1102.0101.246.146.046.056.056.055.172.872.673.12023Y/Y2.21Q230.00.10.10.00.10.0-0.10.00.10.0-0.10.00.10.00.0-0.10.10.10.1-0.1-0.22Q23-0.20.43Q23-0.3-0.10.24Q23-0.20.02023-0.20.12023Y/Y-0.20.1IEAGlobal
DemandOECDDemandOPECEIA2.41.80.10.10.10.2IEA0.2-0.10.0-0.30.0-0.20.0-0.10.0-0.10.0OPECEIA0.10.10.00.10.00.00.1IEA2.10.0-0.1-0.10.10.00.0-0.10.1Non-OECDDemandOPECEIA2.40.4-0.10.10.11.60.10.10.1IEA1.90.40.20.20.20.2Non-OPECSupply*
andOPEC
NGLsOPECEIA1.50.4-0.2-0.4-0.2-0.20.00.01.9-0.2-0.2-0.2IEAOPEC
Crude**Call
onOPECOPECEIA27.530.030.028.527.830.230.828.128.029.329.428.1-0.70.30.0-0.50.00.3-0.3-0.50.10.0-0.40.20.4-0.1-0.40.1-0.1-0.40.1IEAOPECEIA1.0-0.10.50.30.4Global
StockChangeandMiscellaneous
toBalance**IEAOPECEIA0.3-0.11.00.2-1.0-0.4-0.1-0.4-0.8-0.4-0.4*Includes
biofuels
and
processing
gains**Only
EIA
publishes
a
forecast
ofOPECcrude
production
and
globalstock
changeSource:
IEF,
IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,
EIASTEO6IEA
and
OPEC
both
see
global
demand
growth
outpacingnon-OPEC
supply
growth
significantly
in
2H23Global
Demand
Y/Y
GrowthNon-OPEC
Supply
Y/Y
Growthy/ygrowth
inmillion
barrels
perdayy/ygrowth
inmillion
barrels
perday3.03.02.62.42.52.01.51.00.50.02.42.52.01.51.00.50.02.21.51.10.70.21Q232Q233Q234Q232023Avg1Q232Q233Q234Q232023AvgIEA
OPEC
EIAIEA
OPEC
EIASource:IEF,
IEA
OMR,
OPEC
MOMR,
EIA
STEO7IEA
and
OPEC
see
global
demand
surpassing
103
mb/d
bythe
end
of
2023;
OPEC
sees
non-OPEC
supply
weakeningsubstantially
in
3Q23Global
DemandNon-OPEC
Supplydemand
inmillion
barrels
per
daysupplyinmillion
barrels
per
day104.0103.5103.0102.5102.0101.5101.0100.5100.099.569.569.068.568.067.567.066.566.065.565.01Q232Q23OPECOPECprevious3Q234Q231Q23IEAIEA
previous2Q233Q234Q23IEAIEA
previousEIAEIApreviousOPECOPECpreviousEIAEIApreviousSource:IEF,
IEA
OMR,
OPEC
MOMR,
EIA
STEO8Evolution
of
2023
Demand
Growth
Forecasts?
IEA
revisedglobal
demand
growth
lowerfor
the
first
timesince
April,
while
OPECand
EIA
both
revisedforecasts
higher
this
month.?
EIA
continues
to
see
the
weakest
demand
growth
this
year,
drivenbyalowernon-OECD
demand
forecast.?
OECDdemand
growth
forecasts
are
beginning
to
converge
~0.1
mb/d.GlobalDemand
GrowthEvolution
of
2023
Forecastsy/y
growth
in
millionbarrelsperdayOECD
Demand
GrowthEvolution
of
2023
Forecastsy/y
growth
in
millionbarrelsperdayNon-OECD
Demand
GrowthEvolution
of
2023
Forecastsy/y
growth
in
millionbarrelsperday3.02.52.01.51.00.50.03.02.52.01.51.00.50.03.0IEAOPECEIA2.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5IEAOPECEIAIEAOPECEIA-0.5-0.5Forecast
VintageForecast
VintageForecast
VintageSource:IEF,
IEA
OMR,
OPEC
MOMR,
EIA
STEO9China
drives
the
largest
demand
growth
forecastdivergence
withIEA
seeing
the
most
robust
growth2023
Demand
Growth
Forecasts
by
Regiony/ygrowth
in
million
barrels
perdayRange
in
2023
Demand
GrowthForecasts2.75China0.70.7IEA2.502.252.001.751.501.251.000.750.500.250.00-0.25TotalNon-OECDGlobalOPECEIA0.7OtherNon-OECDMiddleEastAfrica0.30.30.20.20.1OECDAsiaOECDEuropeRussia0.10.1TotalOECDOECDAmericasIndia0.10.0millionbarrelsperdaySource:IEF,
IEA
OMR,
OPEC
MOMR,
EIA
STEO10IEA
sees
~0.7
mb/d
stronger
Chinese
demand
growth
thisyear;
OPEC
sees
Chinese
demand
weakening
in
3Q23before
robust
growth
in
4Q23Chinese
Annual
Average
Demand
GrowthEvolution
of
2023ForecastsChinese
Demandmillion
barrelsper
dayy/ygrowth
inmillion
barrels
perday1.816.816.616.416.216.015.815.615.415.215.01.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0IEAOPECJul-22EIA1Q232Q233Q23OPEC4Q23Jan-22
Apr-22Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23Jul-23IEAEIAForecastVintageSource:IEF,
IEA
OMR,
OPEC
MOMR,
EIA
STEO11Evolution
of
2023
Non-OPEC
Supply
Growth
Forecasts?
IEA
revisedup
non-OPEC
supply
growth
by0.1
mb/d,
on
aslightly
higher
Russia
forecast.
EIA
revised
down
itsnon-OPEC
growth
forecast
by0.2
mb/d
on
aweaker
outlook
for
Norwayand
South
America.?
OPECcontinues
to
see
the
weakest
non-OPEC
growth
this
year
due
primarily
to
alowerRussia
forecast.Non-OPEC
Supply
GrowthEvolution
of
2023
Forecastsy/y
growth
in
millionbarrelsperdayRussia
Supply
GrowthUS
Supply
GrowthEvolution
of
2023
Forecastsy/y
growth
in
millionbarrelsperdayEvolution
of
2023
Forecastsy/y
growth
in
millionbarrelsperday2.52.52.5IEAOPECEIA2.01.52.02.01.51.51.01.01.00.50.50.50.00.00.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-0.5-1.0-1.5IEAOPECEIAIEAOPECEIA-2.0-2.0Forecast
VintageForecast
VintageForecast
VintageSource:IEF,
IEA
OMR,
OPEC
MOMR,
EIA
STEO12Russia
drives
the
largest
supply
growth
forecastdivergence
withOPEC
seeing
the
steepest
decline2023
Supply
Growth
Forecasts
by
RegionRange
in
2023
Supply
GrowthForecastsTotalNon-OPECRussiay/ygrowth
in
million
barrels
perday2.250.60.52.001.751.501.251.000.750.500.250.00-0.25-0.50-0.75-1.00IEA
OPEC
EIATotalNon-OECDTotalOECDOtherNon-OECDOPEC
NGLsOtherOECDCanada0.50.20.20.20.20.1US0.10.1ChinaNorway0.10.00.0BrazilKazakhstanmillionbarrelsperdaySource:IEF,
IEA
OMR,
OPEC
MOMR,
EIA
STEO13IEA
and
EIA
have
revised
Russian
supply
forecasts
sharplyhigher
since
January;
OPEC
sees
>1mb/d
lower
output
in2H23
vs.
IEA
and
EIARussia
Supply
GrowthEvolution
of
2023Forecastsy/ygrowth
inmillion
barrels
perday0.5Russia
Productionmillion
barrelsper
day11.511.010.510.09.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.59.0IEAOPECEIAJul-238.5-2.0Jan-22
Apr-221Q232Q233Q23OPEC4Q23Jul-22Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23IEAEIAForecastVintageSource:IEF,
IEA
OMR,
OPEC
MOMR,
EIA
STEO14IEA
and
OPEC
balances
imply
a
~2
mb/d
global
supplyshortfall
in
2H23
if
OPEC
production
were
to
remain
at
Junelevels2023
Call
on
OPEC
and
Recent
OPEC
ProductionLevelsmillion
barrelsper
day?
The“callonOPEC
crude”
is32acalculation
andnotaforecast
ofactual
OPECproduction.31302928272625?
The“callonOPEC”estimateswhat
OPEC
wouldneedto
produce
tobalanceglobalsupplyand
demand.?
It
is
estimatedbysubtractingaforecast
for
non-OPECproductionandOPEC
NGLsfromglobaldemand.1Q23IEA2Q233Q23EIA4Q232023AvgOPECJuneOPECProductionSource:IEF,
IEA
OMR,
OPEC
MOMR,
EIA
STEO152024
Outlook
Comparison16Summary
of
2024
Balances
and
Revisions?
OPECreleased
its
inaugural
2024
balance
this
month.?
OPEC’sinaugural
2024
forecast
showsdemand
growthslowing
to
2.2
mb/d
from
2.4
mb/d
thisyear.
Thisisdouble
IEA’s
forecast
for
2024
demand
growth
of
1.1
mb/d
and
0.6
mb/d
aboveEIA’s
forecast
of
1.6
mb/d.?
Both
IEA
and
EIA
see
non-OPEC
and
OPECNGL
supply
growingby1.0-1.2
mb/d
in2024.OPECsees
slightly
faster
growth
at1.5
mb/d
primarily
due
to
ahigher
US
growth
forecast.17Evolution
of
2024Annual
Demand
Growth
Forecasts?
OPEC’s
2024
globaldemand
growth
forecast
is
doubleIEA’s
duetoa
higherOECD
andMiddleEast
demandgrowth
forecast.?
IEA
sees
OECD
demanddeclining
by0.3
mb/d
next
year.
Meanwhile,
OPEC
andEIA
both
seeOECD
growing
by0.3
mb/d.GlobalDemand
GrowthOECD
Demand
GrowthEvolution
of
2024
Forecastsy/y
growth
in
millionbarrelsperday2.5Non-OECD
Demand
GrowthEvolution
of
2024
Forecastsy/y
growth
in
millionbarrelsperday2.5Evolution
of
2024
Forecastsy/y
growth
in
millionbarrelsperday2.52.01.51.00.50.02.01.51.00.50.02.01.51.00.50.0IEAOPECEIAIEAOPECEIAIEAOPECEIA-0.5Jan-23-0.5Jan-23-0.5Jan-23Apr-23Forecast
VintageJul-23Apr-23Forecast
VintageJul-23Apr-23Jul-23Forecast
VintageSource:IEF,
IEA
OMR,
EIA
STEO,
OPEC
MOMR18OPEC
sees
global
demand
climbing
to
>105
mb/d
by
theend
of
next
year
–
soaring
~4
mb/d
above
the
most
recentquarterly
estimate
(2Q23)2023-24Global
Demanddemand
inmillion
barrels
per
day106105104103102101100991Q232Q233Q234Q23IEA1Q24OPEC2Q243Q244Q24EIASource:IEF,
IEA
OMR,
EIA
STEOSource:IEF,
IEA
OMR,
EIA
STEO,
OPEC
MOMR19OPEC
sees
more
robust
demand
growth
than
IEA
in
theOECD
region,
India,
Russia,
and
the
Middle
East2024
Demand
Growth
Forecasts
by
Regiony/ygrowth
in
million
barrels
perday2.5Range
in
2024
Demand
GrowthForecastsGlobalTotalNon-OECDOECDAmericasTotalOECDMiddleEastOtherNon-OECDChina1.1IEA0.60.62.01.51.00.50.0-0.5OPECEIA0.50.20.20.2India0.20.2RussiaOECDAsiaOECDEuropeAfrica0.10.10.1millionbarrelsperdaySource:IEF,
IEA
OMR,
EIA
STEO,
OPEC
MOMR20Non-OPEC
supply
forecasts
for
2024
are
significantly
morealigned
than
2H23
projections2023-24Non-OPEC
Supplysupplyinmillion
barrels
per
day70.069.569.068.568.067.567.066.566.01Q232Q233Q234Q23IEA1Q24OPEC2Q24EIA3Q244Q24Source:IEF,
IEA
OMR,
EIA
STEO,
OPEC
MOMR21Evolution
of
2024Annual
Non-OPEC
Supply
GrowthForecasts?
OPECsees
the
most
robust
growth
due
primarily
to
ahigher
US
forecast.?
While
allthree
forecasts
see
US
supply
growthslowing
substantially
from
2023’s
>1
mb/d
growth,the
US
isstillexpected
to
bethe
largest
contributor
to
non-OPEC
growth
nextyear.Non-OPEC
Supply
GrowthRussia
Supply
GrowthUS
Supply
GrowthEvolution
of
2024
Forecastsy/y
growth
in
millionbarrelsperday1.5Evolution
of
2024
Forecastsy/y
growth
in
millionbarrelsperday1.5Evolution
of
2024
Forecastsy/y
growth
in
millionbarrelsperday1.5IEAOPECEIA1.31.10.90.70.50.30.1-0.11.31.10.90.70.50.30.1-0.1-0.31.31.10.90.70.50.30.1-0.1IEAOPECEIAIEAOPECEIA-0.3Jan-23-0.3Jan-23Apr-23Forecast
VintageJul-23Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Apr-23Forecast
VintageJul-23Forecast
VintageSource:IEF,
IEA
OMR,
EIA
STEO,
OPEC
MOMR22OPEC
sees
the
strongest
non-OPEC
supply
growth
in
2024due
largely
to
a
higher
US
forecast2024
Supply
Growth
Forecasts
by
Regiony/ygrowth
in
million
barrels
perdayRange
in
2024
Supply
GrowthForecasts1.4TotalNon-OPECTotalOECDTotalNon-OECDUS0.40.4IEA
OPEC
EIA1.20.30.21.00.80.60.40.20.0-0.2Canada0.2OtherNon-OECDRussia0.10.1Brazil0.1KazakhstanNorway0.10.1China0.00.00.0OtherOECDOPEC
NGLsmillionbarrelsperdaySource:IEF,
IEA
OMR,
EIA
STEOSource:IEF,
IEA
OMR,
EIA
STEO,
OPEC
MOMR23OPEC’s
inaugural
2024
balance
implies
a
~2
mb/d
supplyshortfall
if
OPEC
production
remains
at
June
2023
levels?
The“callonOPEC
crude”
isacalculation
and
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