2023年中報業(yè)績深度解讀：弱復(fù)蘇下的中報亮點

││——2023年中報業(yè)績深度解讀A股盈利增速探底，成長板塊與主板呈現(xiàn)分化分風(fēng)格對比來看，周期風(fēng)格疲軟，穩(wěn)定風(fēng)格與消費風(fēng)格景氣較高。營收同社會服務(wù)、房地產(chǎn)、美容護(hù)理均屬于低基數(shù)下困境反轉(zhuǎn)。高基數(shù)并實現(xiàn)較會服務(wù)、農(nóng)林牧漁、非銀金融、商貿(mào)零售、綜合、傳媒、計算機(jī)、公用事制造行業(yè)受益于出口鏈的行業(yè)業(yè)績表現(xiàn)較好，其中乘用車、商用車以及汽全A資本開支延續(xù)回升趨勢，2022年末同比增速達(dá)7.3%至9.0%。分行業(yè)來看，煤炭、公用事業(yè)、銀行、機(jī)算機(jī)設(shè)備、金屬新材料、消費電子等表現(xiàn)相對較好；個股層面關(guān)注石頭科 投資策略│策略專題2請務(wù)必閱讀報告末頁的重要聲明1.A股盈利增速探底，成長板塊與主板呈現(xiàn)分化 4 4 5 82.大類比較：行業(yè)持續(xù)分化，周期行業(yè)承壓 10 10 11 15 26 29 32 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 15 15 16 17 17 17 18 19 19 19 20 21 21 21 22 23 23 24 24 24 25 25 26 26 26 26 27 28 28 29 30 30 31 31 31 32 32投資策略│策略專題4請務(wù)必閱讀報告末頁的重要聲明1.A股盈利增速探底，成長板塊與主板呈現(xiàn)分化總體來看，上半年各板塊業(yè)績增速持續(xù)不及預(yù)300、創(chuàng)業(yè)板周漲跌幅分別為2.26%、2.21%、2.93%。此外圖表1：各板塊營業(yè)收入同比增速（%）圖表圖表1：各板塊營業(yè)收入同比增速（%）投資策略│策略專題別環(huán)比增長12.35%和27.64%；科創(chuàng)板營收和歸母凈利潤分別環(huán)比增長22.86%和46.31%，主要由于創(chuàng)業(yè)板電力設(shè)備領(lǐng)域保持強(qiáng)勁增長勢頭以及科創(chuàng)板綠色能源以及圖表3：科創(chuàng)板、創(chuàng)業(yè)板Q2業(yè)績有所改善6請務(wù)必閱讀報告末頁的重要聲明2023H1增速4.2%4.2%5.5%5.8%5.3%9.5%5.6%-8.4%11.5%15.3%-650.0%-9.9%-640.0%-9.4%2023H1增速4.2%4.2%5.5%5.8%5.3%9.5%5.6%-8.4%11.5%15.3%-650.0%-9.9%-640.0%-9.4%0.8%0.3%-9.4%-10.1%-9.3%絕對值增加額11092111111341411381769468-203717-1240251-2362-217431-2173-4500-17232022H126328626303524410526312150888090834724006220-8080-392383-0230173233092303144440185862023H127437827414725751827842264698859881521986937-93202122147220842326310208583994016863一、營業(yè)總收入營業(yè)收入二、營業(yè)總成本營業(yè)成本營業(yè)稅金及附加銷售費用管理費用研發(fā)費用財務(wù)費用資產(chǎn)減值損失三、其他經(jīng)營收益公允價值變動凈收益投資凈收益匯兌凈收益四、營業(yè)利潤加：營業(yè)外收入減：營業(yè)外支出五、利潤總額減：所得稅加：未確認(rèn)的投資損失六、凈利潤圖表6：全A-金融-石油石化2022年報/2023年半年報合計利潤表（億元）2022年年報2021年年報2022年年報絕對值增加額增速515939555080391417.6%515439554557391197.6%486501524450379507.8%539157643736.9%421522456576350548.3%16980175846043.6%17515182397244.1%56714950-721-12.7%1360416027242317.8%-4578-4947-3698.1%000462-354-816-176.5%51414956-185-3.6%10-0-78.9%38463388463831.0%832869384.5%-21-1.7%38018384604421.2%7755787500030263305863221.1%3471271100303929641662103471271100303929641662103471267910346833480.0%1.2%-12.4%-11.5%-03190-429-385150720-8.9%-9.3%-28.9%-27.3%-174-15490-528-479歸屬于母公司所有者的凈利潤七、每股收益：(一)基本每股收益(元)(二)稀釋每股收益(元)圖表7：2023H1行業(yè)毛利率（%）和毛利率環(huán)比變動（pct）圖表8：全A（剔除金融、兩油）研發(fā)費用率走勢（%）圖表9：全A（剔除金融、兩油）三項費用率和銷售凈利 率走勢（%）工業(yè)端企業(yè)盈利仍未出現(xiàn)明顯改善，工業(yè)去庫存延續(xù)導(dǎo)致工業(yè)品價格走低制約了利8請務(wù)必閱讀報告末頁的重要聲明圖表10：1-6月工業(yè)企業(yè)利潤率小幅回升圖表圖表10：1-6月工業(yè)企業(yè)利潤率小幅回升圖表12：2017年-2023年圖表12：2017年-2023年6月工業(yè)增加值圖表14：全部A股剔除金融ROE（TTM）變化情況圖表16：全部A股剔除金融資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率變化情況圖表15：全部A股剔除金融銷售凈利率變化情況圖表17：全部A股剔除金融總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率變化情況102.1風(fēng)格指數(shù)比較：周期風(fēng)格業(yè)績表現(xiàn)較為疲軟圖表19：各風(fēng)格指數(shù)營業(yè)收入同比增速（%）圖表圖表19：各風(fēng)格指數(shù)營業(yè)收入同比增速（%）圖表23：大類行業(yè)的營業(yè)收入同比增速（%）圖表圖表23：大類行業(yè)的營業(yè)收入同比增速（%）圖表25：大類行業(yè)ROE（TTM%）變化情況圖表26：大類行業(yè)圖表25：大類行業(yè)ROE（TTM%）變化情況12圖表27：2023H1各行業(yè)營收和凈利潤同比增速表現(xiàn)業(yè)無論是歸母凈利潤還是扣非歸母凈利潤均有較大跌幅，其中鋼鐵歸母凈利潤同比我們通過營收和凈利增速的分布判斷行業(yè)絕對景氣程度，景氣度較好的行業(yè)主13圖表28：2023H1各行業(yè)營收和扣非凈利潤增速表現(xiàn)（%）0·0·圖表29：2023H1各行業(yè)營收和扣非凈利潤增速表現(xiàn)（%上圖放大版）14從行業(yè)景氣的邊際變化看，我們通過行業(yè)ROE圖表30：2023H1各行業(yè)ROE（TTM）及環(huán)比變動15航空機(jī)場2-24.9-272.4801991.SI80.5116.43031.7463-31.58.9955.7742.9206720-595.7668.797.511.2293.514084-110.5229.2-2.211728-46.41267203.221-79.5146.2-138.0245.4165.61146130.0823-145.37.79.840.5-3.0-47.2-43.831622681.9-17.1737.1-136.6-9.4164.620.2-1.6航空機(jī)場2-24.9-272.4801991.SI80.5116.43031.7463-31.58.9955.7742.9206720-595.7668.797.511.2293.514084-110.5229.2-2.211728-46.41267203.221-79.5146.2-138.0245.4165.61146130.0823-145.37.79.840.5-3.0-47.2-43.831622681.9-17.1737.1-136.6-9.4164.620.2-1.6圖表31：2023H1二級行業(yè)營收增速環(huán)比變動前二十歸母凈利潤增速(2022Y,%)歸母凈利潤增速(2023H1,%)營收增速(2022Y,%)環(huán)比變動歸母凈利潤增速(2022Y,%)歸母凈利潤增速(2023H1,%)營收增速(2022Y,%)環(huán)比變動pct環(huán)比變動pct總市值(億元)排名代碼二級行業(yè)成份股數(shù)量(2023H1,%) 3031.7 774.813.8118.8203.2341.91267 3031.7 774.813.8118.8203.2341.9126763971003206721342173302301640122414145318726789823933148922795177811553679211311201539502119202937186112428132597.597.53801219.SI酒店餐飲-8.542.050.5-2673.3186.3-26.242.9737.1801766.SI-595.7416.7影視院線-26.242.9737.1801766.SI-595.7416.75801096.SI商用車-29.525.235.1-22.71142.7801082.SI-42.6-23.131.2-33.1-23.66其他電子Ⅱ801082.SI-42.6-23.131.2-33.1-23.667801193.SI證券Ⅱ-23.26.729.9-33.713.984.025.212.640.5801016.SI-16.544.6884.025.212.640.5801016.SI-16.544.6895.59801133.SI飾品0.121.724.6-82.29.895.568.923.731.3-30.2801206.SI6.064.668.923.731.3-30.2801206.SI6.064.639.111801077.SI工程機(jī)械-19.62.922.6-45.516.039.179.717.221.0-26.4-6.2801179.SI57.579.717.221.0-26.4-6.2801179.SI57.544.413801994.SI教育-26.4-7.119.366.5126.244.4-736.9236.2-152.16.23.6-208.6漁業(yè)-736.9236.2-152.16.23.6-208.6漁業(yè)17.6756.415801744.SI航海裝備Ⅱ6.023.517.5-182.91287.8 66.2-13.53.2801722.SI50.816.7116.4 66.2-13.53.2801722.SI50.816.7116.4204.317801765.SI廣告營銷-12.93.116.0-95.612.7204.31818801767.SI數(shù)字媒體-9.54.714.2-23.113.819.419801112.SI黑色家電-14.2-0.114.2-4.2-6.619.4水泥12.0-53.620801711.SI-59.1-17.5-5.5-28.9水泥12.0-53.620801711.SI-59.1-17.5-5.5圖表32：2023H1二級行業(yè)凈利潤增速環(huán)比變動前二十歸母凈利潤增速(2022Y,%)營收增速(2022Y,%)營收增速歸母凈利潤增速(2022Y,%)營收增速(2022Y,%)營收增速(2023H1,%)環(huán)比變動pct環(huán)比變動pct總市值(億元)代碼排名二級行業(yè)成份股數(shù)量速代碼排名二級行業(yè)成份股數(shù)量(2023H1,%)酒店餐飲專業(yè)連鎖Ⅱ商用車影視院線航空機(jī)場房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)航海裝備Ⅱ酒店餐飲專業(yè)連鎖Ⅱ商用車影視院線航空機(jī)場房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)航海裝備Ⅱ 廣告營銷旅游及景區(qū)房地產(chǎn)服務(wù)綜合Ⅱ多元金融汽車服務(wù)證券Ⅱ游戲Ⅱ飾品中藥Ⅱ種植業(yè)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品加工100342.012.425.216.7116.44.023.5-2.43.1113.710.17.4-4.18.46.70.721.713.744.6-1.5801219.SI801204.SI801096.SI801766.SI801991.SI801181.SI801744.SI801103.SI801765.SI801993.SI801183.SI801231.SI801191.SI801092.SI801193.SI801764.SI801133.SI801155.SI801016.SI801012.SI-2673.350.52345678920-8.52.0-29.5-26.2-24.9-8.56.0-0.2-12.9-32.5-1.42.1-1.6-14.9-23.20.13.512.69.4-22.735.12134774.81142.7-22.735.12134774.8-272.4341.9639780.5-272.4341.96397-182.9-95.638.4-33.9-33.7-82.2-182.9-95.638.4-33.9-33.7-82.2-16.5236.2204.3168.6160.7118.895.584.0331427954885311302301224164017.516.05.7-2.529.924.625.22831502112.7205.022.213.9-0.9-0.9-95.5-4.5102.642982610.310.3-40.644.993.910279732.3行業(yè)業(yè)績兌現(xiàn)能力比較：出行鏈和出口鏈?zhǔn)芤嫘猩鲜泄景l(fā)布業(yè)績預(yù)告或者業(yè)績快報，我們則以報告最早發(fā)布時點作為上市公司財16部分企業(yè)發(fā)布報告兩周的凈利潤預(yù)測調(diào)整情況如果凈利潤被上調(diào)則證明市公司業(yè)績低于預(yù)期，最后我們將超預(yù)期與符合圖表33：2023H1一級行業(yè)業(yè)績超預(yù)期比例以及業(yè)績兌現(xiàn)比例17圖表34：2023H1周期行業(yè)業(yè)績超預(yù)期比例以及業(yè)績兌現(xiàn)比例行業(yè)成分股數(shù)鋼鐵31普鋼15特鋼Ⅱ10冶鋼原料6公用事業(yè)67電力57燃?xì)猗?0建筑材料39玻璃玻纖10水泥12裝修建材17建筑裝飾66房屋建設(shè)Ⅱ5工程咨詢服務(wù)Ⅱ11基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)19專業(yè)工程24裝修裝飾Ⅱ7交通運輸62航空機(jī)場10航運港口15鐵路公路13物流24煤炭22焦炭Ⅱ3煤炭開采19石油石化22煉化及貿(mào)易13油服工程7油氣開采Ⅱ2有色金屬87工業(yè)金屬33貴金屬6金屬新材料16能源金屬15小金屬172022年報19.35%13.33%40.00% 0.00%20.90%19.30%30.00%10.26%10.00% 8.33%11.76%24.24% 0.00%27.27%31.58%25.00%14.29%30.65%20.00%33.33%38.46%29.17%27.27% 0.00%31.58%22.73%15.38%42.86%0.00%24.14%24.14%21.21%33.33%18.75%33.33%23.53%超預(yù)期比例變動趨勢2022年報70.97%86.67%70.00%70.00%33.33%59.70%57.89%70.00%48.72%30.00%75.00%41.18%59.09%60.00%54.55%63.16%58.33%57.14%58.06%70.00%53.33%61.54%54.17%54.55%66.67%52.63%63.64%53.85%100.00%0.00%0.00%43.68%36.36%33.33%33.33%50.00%73.33%29.41%業(yè)績兌現(xiàn)比例變動趨勢2023年一季報28.13%25.00%40.00%16.67%2023年中報16.67%17.65%27.27%0.00%2023年一季報46.88%43.75%50.00%50.00%47.54%44.23%66.67%30.00% 0.00%38.46%41.18%56.92%25.00%45.45%72.22%54.17%62.50%54.84%70.00%56.25%83.33%33.33%40.00%33.33%40.91%40.00%23.08%80.00%50.00%38.20%35.29%50.00%50.00%28.57%36.84%2023年中報50.00%64.71%54.55%54.55%12.50%52.24%50.85%62.50%30.95%10.00%35.71%38.89%45.33%25.00%46.67%45.00%44.44%55.56%42.19%36.36%50.00%58.33%32.00%18.52%25.00%17.39%37.50%18.75%83.33%50.00%37.76%38.46%42.86%42.86%50.00%23.08%31.58%32.79%22.39%34.62%23.73%22.22%10.00% 0.00% 0.00%23.53%30.77% 0.00%18.18%44.44%29.17%37.50%33.87%12.50% 7.14% 0.00% 7.14%11.11%10.67% 0.00% 6.67% 5.00%18.52%11.11%21.88%60.00%18.18%25.00%58.33%16.67%28.00% 0.00%31.82%35.00%15.38%80.00%50.00%19.10%17.65%33.33%25.00%14.29%15.79%12.50%50.00%16.00%11.11% 0.00%13.04%16.67% 6.25%33.33%50.00%9.18%9.18%2.56%42.86%15.00% 0.00%10.53%圖表35：周期行業(yè)超預(yù)期比例環(huán)比變動圖表36：周期行業(yè)業(yè)績兌現(xiàn)比例環(huán)比變動18圖表37：2023H1周期板塊業(yè)績超預(yù)期比例及歸母凈利潤增速投資策略│策略專題19的經(jīng)濟(jì)性改善明顯并保持了非常強(qiáng)勁的發(fā)展勢頭，其中光伏設(shè)備受益于下游需求集圖表38：2023H1中游制造行業(yè)業(yè)績超預(yù)期比例以及業(yè)績兌現(xiàn)比例行業(yè)成分股數(shù)超預(yù)期比例變動趨勢業(yè)績兌現(xiàn)比例變動趨勢2022年報2023年一季報2023年中報2022年報2023年一季報2023年中報電力設(shè)備20223.27%24.27%21.03%50.50%41.75%44.86%16.18%7.35%9.52%51.47%29.41%34.92%0.00%11.11%0.00%40.00%33.33%25.00%電網(wǎng)設(shè)備4124.39%34.88%23.08%53.66%51.16%61.54%風(fēng)電設(shè)備175.88%23.53%5.00%23.53%29.41%20.00%光伏設(shè)備5240.38%35.19%37.74%57.69%50.00%45.28%其他電源設(shè)備Ⅱ1428.57%40.00%33.33%50.00%60.00%66.67%機(jī)械設(shè)備214工程機(jī)械1523.83%40.00%21.88%53.33%13.95%33.33%51.87%51.87%66.67%44.64%73.33%47.29%47.29%55.56%軌交設(shè)備Ⅱ1060.00%40.00%27.27%80.00%60.00%54.55%通用設(shè)備8427.38%17.78%14.81%54.76%43.33%51.85%專用設(shè)備6013.33%22.58%8.45%51.67%46.77%40.85%自動化設(shè)備4517.78%14.89%10.00%35.56%31.91%42.00%基礎(chǔ)化工18811.17%7.73%5.15%46.28%29.83%32.99%非金屬材料Ⅱ60.00%16.67%14.29%33.33%33.33%57.14%化學(xué)纖維1030.00%9.09%7.69%40.00%27.27%30.77%化學(xué)原料205.00%5.88%8.70%55.00%29.41%43.48%化學(xué)制品829.76%6.33%3.70%46.34%31.65%27.16%農(nóng)化制品3315.15%3.23%6.06%51.52%16.13%24.24%塑料2910.34%13.79%0.00%44.83%44.83%46.15%橡膠812.50%12.50%9.09%25.00%12.50%36.36%汽車11426.32%22.03%28.46%47.37%41.53%58.46%乘用車633.33%33.33%50.00%33.33%33.33%50.00%摩托車及其他825.00%37.50%10.00%62.50%50.00%40.00%汽車服務(wù)425.00%33.33%0.00%75.00%33.33%40.00%汽車零部件8925.84%18.09%27.72%46.07%41.49%60.40%商用車728.57%42.86%62.50%42.86%42.86%75.00%環(huán)保41環(huán)保設(shè)備Ⅱ1417.07%28.57%12.50%14.29%11.54%5.56%58.54%58.54%42.86%45.00%35.71%46.15%46.15%22.22%環(huán)境治理2711.11%11.54%14.71%66.67%50.00%58.82%圖表39：中游制造行業(yè)超預(yù)期比例環(huán)比變動 圖表40：中游制造行業(yè)業(yè)績兌現(xiàn)比例環(huán)比變動投資策略│策略專題20請務(wù)必閱讀報告末頁的重要聲明圖表41：2023H1中游制造板塊業(yè)績超預(yù)期比例及歸母凈利潤增速從邊際變化來看，其他家電、教育、貿(mào)易、小家電以及飼料的業(yè)績超預(yù)期比例均較投資策略│策略專題21請務(wù)必閱讀報告末頁的重要聲明圖表42：2023H1大消費行業(yè)業(yè)績超預(yù)期比例以及業(yè)績兌現(xiàn)比例行業(yè)成分股數(shù)超預(yù)期比例變動趨勢業(yè)績兌現(xiàn)比例變動趨勢2022年報2023年一季報2023年中報2022年報2023年一季報2023年中報紡織服飾16.36%21.43%26.53%15.38%21.82%15.38%43.64%42.86%30.61%23.08%49.09%30.77%服裝家紡3312.12%32.14%20.59%42.42%32.14%58.82%飾品825.00%25.00%37.50%50.00%37.50%37.50%家用電器4922.45%50.00%25.00%75.00%37.04%83.33%40.82%50.00%35.42%75.00%48.15%83.33%廚衛(wèi)電器812.50%22.22%33.33%12.50%22.22%44.44%黑色家電520.00%20.00%28.57%60.00%60.00%71.43%30.00%33.33%22.22%60.00%44.44%33.33%其他家電Ⅱ20.00%0.00%50.00%50.00%0.00%50.00%小家電18.75%25.00%13.33%25.00%35.29%25.00%31.25%50.00%26.67%25.00%41.18%25.00%個護(hù)用品930.00%44.44%35.00%44.44%33.33%36.36%45.00%66.67%50.00%66.67%41.67%36.36%化妝品922.22%22.22%30.00%33.33%33.33%40.00%0.00%50.00%33.33%0.00%50.00%66.67%農(nóng)林牧漁動物保?、?9.80%0.00%14.89%0.00%9.43%0.00%49.02%25.00%25.53%12.50%30.19%12.50%農(nóng)產(chǎn)品加工825.00%37.50%14.29%50.00%62.50%42.86%農(nóng)業(yè)綜合Ⅱ20.00%0.00%0.00%50.00%0.00%50.00%9.09%0.00%20.00%63.64%0.00%20.00%養(yǎng)殖業(yè)6.67%21.43%6.67%60.00%28.57%13.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%100.00%種植業(yè)616.67%16.67%10.00%33.33%33.33%60.00%輕工制造13.92%5.88%20.78%17.65%23.26%15.79%41.77%41.18%36.36%41.18%54.65%73.68%家居用品4413.64%21.43%29.55%40.91%35.71%52.27%文娛用品922.22%33.33%9.09%55.56%55.56%54.55%造紙922.22%11.11%25.00%33.33%11.11%33.33%互聯(lián)網(wǎng)電商26.09%42.86%27.91%28.57%25.53%28.57%45.65%42.86%44.19%28.57%55.32%55.32%57.14%旅游零售Ⅱ10.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%25.00%0.00%0.00%75.00%一般零售2927.59%28.57%27.59%55.17%50.00%58.62%專業(yè)連鎖Ⅱ616.67%33.33%16.67%33.33%50.00%33.33%社會服務(wù)42教育730.95%14.29%47.50%33.33%38.64%62.50%64.29%57.14%57.50%50.00%56.82%75.00%酒店餐飲633.33%40.00%20.00%50.00%40.00%20.00%旅游及景區(qū)63.64%81.82%50.00%90.91%90.91%58.33%體育Ⅱ20.00%50.00%0.00%100.00%50.00%50.00%18.75%31.25%29.41%50.00%43.75%58.82%食品飲料41.38%44.44%43.68%44.44%25.53%36.84%55.17%44.44%50.57%44.44%40.43%47.37%47.37%36.36%36.36%18.18%36.36%36.36%27.27%50.00%57.14%33.33%50.00%71.43%55.56%38.89%41.18%16.67%72.22%58.82%38.89%25.00%37.50%21.05%43.75%43.75%42.11%55.56%50.00%27.78%72.22%55.56%33.33%圖表43：大消費行業(yè)超預(yù)期比例環(huán)比變動40.00% 服裝家紡圖表44：大消費行業(yè)業(yè)績兌現(xiàn)比例環(huán)比變動投資策略│策略專題22請務(wù)必閱讀報告末頁的重要聲明周期見底將逐步步入補(bǔ)庫存階段，家電業(yè)績改善較為亮眼。圖表45：2023H1大消費板塊業(yè)績兌現(xiàn)比例及歸母凈利潤增速投資策略│策略專題23請務(wù)必閱讀報告末頁的重要聲明圖表46：2023H1醫(yī)藥行業(yè)業(yè)績超預(yù)期比例以及業(yè)績兌現(xiàn)比例圖表47：2023H1醫(yī)藥子行業(yè)業(yè)績情況個子行業(yè)業(yè)績超預(yù)期比例低于2023Q1，其中出版、數(shù)字媒體、廣投資策略│策略專題24請務(wù)必閱讀報告末頁的重要聲明圖表48：2023H1TMT與科技行業(yè)業(yè)績超預(yù)期比例以及業(yè)績兌現(xiàn)比例行業(yè)成分股數(shù)2022年報超預(yù)期比例2023年一季報2023年中報變動趨勢業(yè)績兌現(xiàn)比例2022年報2023年一季報2023年中報變動趨勢 傳媒5925.42%37.10%出版12電視廣播Ⅱ30.00%0.00%廣告營銷1118.18%41.6數(shù)字媒體825.00%37.50%0.00%影視院線90.00%30.00%33.33%游戲Ⅱ1618.75%28.5 電子26312.93%半導(dǎo)體10317.4電子化學(xué)品Ⅱ234.35%13.04%光學(xué)光電子3915.38%24.24%其他電子Ⅱ2010.00%0.00%消費電子498.16%14.00%元件2910.34%7.14% 國防軍工8814.77%地面兵裝Ⅱ616.67%25.00%航海裝備Ⅱ616.67%33.33%航空裝備Ⅱ3324.24%24.24%21.62%航天裝備Ⅱ520.00%0.00%25.00%軍工電子Ⅱ385.26%5.41% 計算機(jī)17518.IT服務(wù)Ⅱ58計算機(jī)設(shè)備3336.36%43.24%25.00%軟件開發(fā)8413.10%5.88% 通信5322.64%21.05%15.38%通信服務(wù)1526.67%20.00%通信設(shè)備3821.05%21.43%14.89%61.02%66.67%45.45%61.02%66.67%45.45%87.50%66.67%43.75%44.49%43.69%34.78%64.10%65.00%30.61%37.93%44.32%50.00%66.67%42.42%40.00%42.11%54.29%60.34%66.67%45.24%45.28%60.00%39.47%54.05%66.67%40.00%43.75%33.33%58.33%58.82%38.16%33.61%34.78%40.00%45.00%52.00%28.57%50.54%40.00%54.05%50.00%45.00%55.22%60.87%63.64%46.59%40.00%44.44%38.30%66.67%33.33%58.33%40.00%42.86%32.68%30.19%30.43%51.52%34.00%28.57%36.47%25.00%50.00%48.48%40.00%24.32%43.33%53.45%64.86%27.06%35.09%33.33%35.71%圖表49：TMT與科技行業(yè)超預(yù)期比例環(huán)比變動圖表圖表49：TMT與科技行業(yè)超預(yù)期比例環(huán)比變動上半年全球半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)銷售仍舊呈現(xiàn)疲軟態(tài)勢，但目前半導(dǎo)體月度銷售額觸底光通信行業(yè)下游需求有望復(fù)蘇，各類研發(fā)成果將助力我國光通信企業(yè)業(yè)績長期穩(wěn)健投資策略│策略專題25請務(wù)必閱讀報告末頁的重要聲明圖表51：2023H1TMT與科技板塊業(yè)績超預(yù)期比例及歸母凈利潤增速關(guān)注金融與地產(chǎn)板塊的超預(yù)期比例，從絕對值視角來看，股份制銀行及農(nóng)商行圖表52：2023H1金融與地產(chǎn)行業(yè)業(yè)績超預(yù)期比例以及業(yè)績兌現(xiàn)比例行業(yè)成分股數(shù)超預(yù)期比例變動趨勢業(yè)績兌現(xiàn)比例變動趨勢2022年報2023年一季報2023年中報2022年報2023年一季報2023年中報房地產(chǎn)37房地產(chǎn)服務(wù)413.51%0.00%14.29%0.00%16.67%0.00%40.54%25.00%31.43%25.00%55.56%25.00%房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)3315.15%16.13%18.75%42.42%32.26%59.38%非銀金融5315.09%30.00%14.04%47.17%64.00%45.61%保險Ⅱ520.00%100.00%0.00%20.00%100.00%0.00%多元金融1118.18%35.71%12.50%54.55%57.14%50.00%證券Ⅱ3713.51%16.13%16.67%48.65%61.29%50.00%銀行3345.45%28.57%18.92%45.45%40.00%37.84%城商行Ⅱ1233.33%23.08%20.00%33.33%38.46%53.33%股份制銀行Ⅱ742.86%25.00%25.00%42.86%37.50%50.00%國有大型銀行650.00%0.00%0.00%50.00%0.00%0.00% 農(nóng)商行Ⅱ862.50%62.50%25.00%62.50%75.00%25.00%26請務(wù)必閱讀報告末頁的重要聲明圖表53：金融與地產(chǎn)行業(yè)超預(yù)期比例環(huán)比變動圖表圖表53：金融與地產(chǎn)行業(yè)超預(yù)期比例環(huán)比變動圖表55：2023H1金融地產(chǎn)板塊業(yè)績兌現(xiàn)比例及歸母凈利潤增速圖表56：全A資本開支同比增速變化趨勢27請務(wù)必閱讀報告末頁的重要聲明圖表57：一級行業(yè)資本開支同比增速變化趨勢板塊2016Y2017Y2018Y2019Y2020Y2021Y2022Y2023Q12023H1縮略圖社會服務(wù)12.33.526.310.3-19.7-0.1-22.4-2.061.5煤炭-13.2-4.37.68.311.7-0.136.475.843.6公用事業(yè)2.8-10.2-8.5-0.419.90.516.834.843.2汽車16.415.822.0-4.5-25.845.948.042.238.2有色金屬-10.932.520.610.25.33.734.725.336.2房地產(chǎn)5.739.033.524.615.4-16.1-20.054.229.4交通運輸13.21.611.6-17.0-4.418.9-15.24.724.3石油石化-21.217.923.123.2-17.010.2-1.24.821.5綜合11.715.315.7-39.737.7-29.06.93.718.1紡織服飾-8.413.96.6-9.3-13.723.07.50.617.6基礎(chǔ)化工-0.941.250.111.712.037.732.117.617.4電力設(shè)備17.721.95.78.79.171.642.427.616.9機(jī)械設(shè)備-7.6-2.625.83.02.136.12.19.615.9食品飲料-18.92.322.953.7-11.929.82.16.914.9銀行7.8-14.720.7-9.40.70.39.926.212.8國防軍工7.8-2.60.515.7-14.913.012.06.612.6建筑裝飾1.423.5-2.523.930.5-23.45.73.97.1美容護(hù)理-21.133.811.4-3.077.5-8.1-11.30.27.0計算機(jī)29.314.949.2-1.18.521.50.1-3.74.2家用電器-7.218.071.17.67.820.50.42.22.7傳媒36.64.6-9.7-5.2-14.36.0-17.41.82.3商貿(mào)零售-5.310.916.5-8.5-18.210.8-21.5-20.8-4.3通信12.6-22.9-7.1-3.1-6.26.1-2.5-2.8-4.8電子34.443.718.6-20.330.811.27.7-10.1-4.8輕工制造-9.037.623.3-8.312.721.1-5.9-2.3-5.3醫(yī)藥生物12.515.020.80.59.834.74.2-10.6-5.4農(nóng)林牧漁21.429.9-0.148.8127.1-25.0-35.7-24.1-7.4環(huán)保42.333.720.637.71.4-23.4-13.2-18.7-8.8鋼鐵-33.4-10.814.313.6-3.19.09.4-17.9-9.0非銀金融32.6-10.0-12.1-11.04.3-0.3-9.7-32.8-13.3建筑材料10.25.134.641.6-5.140.516.2-14.0-36.8全部A股1.68.014.65.26.58.77.39.213.0全A-金融-0.610.814.78.67.410.17.79.113.4全A-金融-兩桶油2.89.913.56.611.110.68.410.512.728請務(wù)必閱讀報告末頁的重要聲明圖表58：2023H1一級行業(yè)資本開支與凈利潤同比增速情況圖表59：2023H1一級行業(yè)資本開支與凈利潤環(huán)比變動情況29請務(wù)必閱讀報告末頁的重要聲明從二級行業(yè)來看，在剔除資本開支絕對值小于圖表60：二級行業(yè)資本開支增速環(huán)比變動前20名與后20名投資策略│策略專題30請務(wù)必閱讀報告末頁的重要聲明801730.SI電力設(shè)備52,657286-11.0%0.0%801730.SI電力設(shè)備52,657286-11.0%0.0%10.5%20.3%43.8%21.0%圖表61：綜合超跌、估值、業(yè)績同比+環(huán)比、業(yè)績預(yù)測四因素下的一級行業(yè)篩選情況 代碼一級行業(yè)總市值（億元）成份個數(shù)8月跌幅綜合估值分位數(shù)Q2凈利潤環(huán)比H1營收同比Q2營收改善占比盈利預(yù)測調(diào)高占比 801210.SI社會服務(wù)4,90773-8.7%16.7%55.8%30.9%63.6%38.6%801110.SI家用電器14,60679-8.2%14.0%39.8%5.9%54.6%37.0% 801880.SI汽車31,409251-11.2%51.9%16.2%19.3%28.5% 801980.SI美容護(hù)理3,74630-9.8%41.5%15.2%5.5%53.3%33.3% 801180.SI房地產(chǎn)14,420109-8.5%8.8%55.0%4.0%44.4%16.7%801770.SI通信18,802115-8.9%15.2%62.9%6.3%41.0%15.4% 801710.SI建筑材料8,64974-8.4%2.2%-2.8%7.1%801080.SI電子45,263319-11.7%60.2%65.7%-6.2%12.7% 801740.SI國防軍工19,381100-7.5%3.1%64.1%10.8%39.3%15.1%圖表62：綜合超跌、估值、業(yè)績同比+環(huán)比、業(yè)績預(yù)測四因素下的二級行業(yè)篩選情況代碼801735.SI801096.SI801142.SI801114.SI801111.SI801219.SI801102.SI801045.SI