保證社會(huì)正義的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長課件

GrowthwithSocialJustice:

lessonsfromglobaleconomiccrisis

保證社會(huì)正義的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長：

從全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中汲取的教訓(xùn)

GrowthwithSocialJustiGlobalization

全球化

Howisitchangingtheworld?全球化如何改變著世界？Participantsviews…學(xué)員觀點(diǎn)…PictureSource:KateRaworth,OxfampresentationonTrade&HumanDevelopmentGlobalization全球化

PictureSour Implicationsof‘neo-liberal’policies

新“自由主義”政策的影響

Fromdevelopmentcooperationtofreetrade&forthisopenmarketsfortrade,investment&capitalflows;從發(fā)展合作轉(zhuǎn)為自由貿(mào)易、開放市場、貿(mào)易、投資、資本流動(dòng)MorecompetitionbetweenUnequals-Highincomecountrieshavemorethan80%oftheworldincomes,receivemorethan3/4thoftheforeigninvestmentand3/4thoftheworldtradeisbetweenthem.不平等經(jīng)濟(jì)體間競爭增加——高收入國家占全球收入的80%強(qiáng)，獲得超過3/4的全球外資和3/4的全球貿(mào)易。

Equalityof“access”equalityof“opportunity”

“準(zhǔn)入”均等≠

“機(jī)會(huì)”均等

unequalcapabilities

unequaloutcomes

能力不平等結(jié)果不平等 Implicationsof‘neo-liberal’ Implicationsof‘neo-liberal’policies

新“自由主義”政策的影響Withdrawalof‘State’fromitseconomic®ulatoryrole;(marketsKnowthebest,willselfregulate)

撤回“國家”對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)監(jiān)管的作用（市場最優(yōu)，會(huì)自行規(guī)范監(jiān)管）Redistributionofincometowardstherich(privatization,taxpolicies)將收入重新分配給富人（私有化、稅收政策）Labourflexibility&changingnatureofemploymentrelationships–precariousworkforyouth&women（勞動(dòng)力靈活性&雇傭關(guān)系性質(zhì)的變化——青年&女性處于不穩(wěn)定工作狀態(tài)）Strainoninternationallaboursolidarity給全球勞工團(tuán)結(jié)帶來壓力 Implicationsof‘neo-liberal’GlobalEconomicCrisis全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)

Resultof‘liberalization’,speculation,greed,wideninginequalities&‘marketsknowthebest’philosophy

“自由化”的結(jié)果、投機(jī)、貪婪、不平等加劇及“市場最優(yōu)”理念

Whoispayingthepriceforit?誰為此買單？-Whatcanwelearnfromit?Whatneedsto

bedone?我們可以從中學(xué)到什么？需要做什么？GlobalEconomicCrisis全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)GlobalEconomicCrisis:lessonsfordevelopingcountries全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)：發(fā)展中國家從中汲取的一些教訓(xùn)

Overdependenceonexports&westernmarkets過渡依賴出口及西方市場

Foreconomic&socialstability-

countriesalsoneeddomesticmarkets–howtodevelop&expanddomestic®ionalmarkets?為實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)穩(wěn)定——各國也需要國內(nèi)市場——如何開發(fā)拓展國內(nèi)和區(qū)域市場？Reducewideninginequalities:needforwages&incomespolicyinthecountrytoensureequitablesharingingrowth/productivity彌合不斷擴(kuò)大的不平等：各國需要確保經(jīng)濟(jì)增長/生產(chǎn)力發(fā)展的成果得以平等分配的工資及收入政策Labourstandards&development:roleofrighttoorganize,collectivebargaining&socialsecurity勞工標(biāo)準(zhǔn)及發(fā)展：組織權(quán)、集體談判權(quán)和社會(huì)保障的作用GlobalEconomicCrisis:lessonGlobalization&Inequalities全球化&不平等Theory:Richinvest,poorconsume–soredistributeincometowardstherichtopromotegrowth-andrisingtidewillliftallboats理論：富人投資，窮人消費(fèi)——因此，將收入重新分配給富人，以促進(jìn)增長——從而水漲船“皆”高Butwhathashappened?但現(xiàn)實(shí)結(jié)果是？Growthyesbutwideninginequalities的確實(shí)現(xiàn)了增長，但不平等加劇Declineinlabour’sshareofGDPGDP中勞動(dòng)力的份額下降Globalization&Inequalities全Population&WealthSharesbyRegion(2000)

各區(qū)域人口及財(cái)富份額（2000年）therichest10%own85%oftheglobalassets(2000).最富有的10%人口占有全球85%的資產(chǎn)（2000年）。50%oftheworldpopulationownslessthan1%oftheglobalassets.全球一半人口占有全球不到1%的資產(chǎn)。Source:UNU-WIDERPopulation&WealthSharesbyChina:povertydown,inequalityup

中國：貧困減少，不平等增加between1981&2001,populationbelowpovertylinefellfrom53%tojust8%(Ravallion&Chen,2007)1981-2001年間，生活在貧困線以下的人口從53%下降到8%（來源：Ravallion&Chen,2007年）butinequalitiesincreased-GiniCoefficientjumpedfrom0.32in1987to0.47in2009但不平等增加——基尼系數(shù)從1987年的0.32驟升至2009年的0.47averagepercapitawealthin2010:$17,126BUTmedianwealthwasjust$6,327-

itmeanswealthcreatedhasnotbeenevenlydistributed(Source:2010CreditSuisseGlobalWealthReport)

2010年，人均財(cái)富為17126美元，但財(cái)富中值僅為6327美元——這意味著創(chuàng)造的財(cái)富并未均等分配（來源：瑞信銀行2010年《全球財(cái)富報(bào)告》）Wagesharedecreases22yearsinarow!(ChinaDaily)

ShareofwagesinGDPdroppedtoabout37%(2005)from56%in1983工資份額連續(xù)22年下降?。▉碓矗骸吨袊?qǐng)?bào)》）。工資占GDP的份額從1983年的56%降至2005年的37%。China:povertydown,inequalitUrbanv/sRuralIncomesinChina

中國城鄉(xiāng)收入對(duì)比Source:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13945072城鎮(zhèn)居民可支配收入v/s農(nóng)村居民純收入（來源：國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局）Urbanv/sRuralIncomesinChiOverdependenceonExports

過渡依賴出口Almost60%offinaldemandforAsiangoodscomesfromdevelopedcountries.對(duì)亞洲商品的最終需求約60%來自發(fā)達(dá)國家。China:growthcomesfrominvestmentsandexports,householdconsumptioncontributedabout1/3rdofGDPin2010中國：增長主要來自投資和出口，2010年家庭消費(fèi)對(duì)GDP的貢獻(xiàn)率約為1/3。Exportscontributedabout50%toincomegrowthofChina(pre-2008)-makesChinavulnerabletoslowdownintheUS&EU.出口對(duì)中國收入增長的貢獻(xiàn)率為50%左右（2008年以前）——使得中國易受美國及歐盟經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的影響。OverdependenceonExports

過渡依Distributionofthewealthgeneratedinexportsector(China)出口創(chuàng)造出的財(cái)富分配（中國）

LabourproductivityinChinahasgrownbyabout20%peryear,whilerealwagesgrewbylessthanhalf-shareofwagesinvalueaddedhasbeendeclining中國年均勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率增幅約為20%，而實(shí)際工資增幅還不到10%——增值工資份額一直呈下降態(tài)勢2/3rdoftheincomeinExportsectorgoestocapital(agoodpartofittoforeigncapital),lessthan20%goestolabour出口部門收入的2/3流向資本（其中大部分流向外資），勞動(dòng)力所得不到20%fortheeconomyasawhole,shareofwagesinGDPfelltoabout40%afterfluctuatingbetween50-55%inthe1990s-shareofwagesinexportsectorislowerthanthatfortheeconomyasawhole對(duì)于整體經(jīng)濟(jì)而言，工資占GDP的份額由上世紀(jì)九十年代在50-55%區(qū)間內(nèi)波動(dòng)下降到約40%——出口部門的工資份額低于整體經(jīng)濟(jì)中工資的份額DistributionofthewealthgenChina:whatdrivesgrowth?

中國：增長的驅(qū)動(dòng)力是？Maindriversofgrowth:InvestmentandExports-Privateconsumptionlowcomparedtoothercountries(WagesarethemainsourceofconsumptioninChina)增長的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力：投資和出口——私人消費(fèi)低于其他國家的水平（工資是中國消費(fèi)的主要來源）IfInvestment>domesticConsumption,thendependenceonforeignmarkets(Exports)istheonlywayouttomaintaingrowth––butcanChinacontinuetoexportatthesamerateasinlastdecade?倘若投資大于國內(nèi)消費(fèi)，那么對(duì)于外國市場（出口）的依賴則成為保持增長的唯一途徑——但問題是，中國是否還能繼續(xù)保持過去十年同等水平的出口率呢？Ifnot,thenthegrowthstrategyneedsachange–whatcanbedone?如果無法保持，則需轉(zhuǎn)變?cè)鲩L策略——能夠做什么？China:whatdrivesgrowth?

中國：Lessonsfromcrisis:

從危機(jī)中汲取的教訓(xùn)：Needtoaddressunequalincomedistributionbetweencapital&labour-oneoftherootcausesofglobaleconomiccrisis,socialconflictsandobstacletoChina’sgrowthinfuture.需解決勞資之間不平等的收入分配——這是導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)、社會(huì)沖突的根源之一，還會(huì)阻礙中國未來經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。Needtoshiftfromexportledtodomesticconsumptionledgrowth

增長需要從以出口為主導(dǎo)轉(zhuǎn)向以國內(nèi)消費(fèi)為主導(dǎo)

needforwagepolicy&socialprotectionflooraimedatreducinginequalities,keepingwagesinlinewithproductivity,toincreasedisposableincomes,avoiddebtfinancedconsumption&promotesustainablegrowth

需要旨在減少不平等、使工資與生產(chǎn)率保持同步增長的工資政策和社會(huì)保護(hù)底線，以增加可支配收入、避免舉債消費(fèi)、促進(jìn)可持續(xù)增長。Lessonsfromcrisis:

從危機(jī)中汲取的教訓(xùn)ILO’sResponse國際勞工組織應(yīng)對(duì)之舉GlobalJobsPactadoptedinJune2009–于2009年6月通過《全球就業(yè)協(xié)定》

aframeworkforDecentWorkledpoliciesaimedateconomicrecoverywithjobcreationandtheprovisionofsocialprotectiontoworkingpeopleandtheirfamiliesatitscore;以體面勞動(dòng)為基本政策的框架，旨在創(chuàng)造就業(yè)、促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，其核心是為工人及其家人提供社會(huì)保護(hù)Process:Tripartitedialoguewithsocialpartnersforaddressingthecrisis&developingnationalpolicyresponse.過程：與社會(huì)伙伴進(jìn)行三方對(duì)話以應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)、制定國家政策作為應(yīng)對(duì)之舉Focusonpromotinguseofwagepolicytools,socialprotectionandemployment-leddevelopmentpolicieswithrespectforworkersrights關(guān)注重點(diǎn)：促進(jìn)工資政策工具的使用、社會(huì)保護(hù)、就業(yè)主導(dǎo)的發(fā)展政策、尊重工人權(quán)利ILO’sResponse國際勞工組織應(yīng)對(duì)之舉GlobaPoliciesrequired:

所需政策：RighttoOrganize組織權(quán)PromoteCollectivebargaining:makeswagesmoreresponsivetoeconomicgrowth&reduceswageinequalities促進(jìn)集體談判：使工資與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長更相適應(yīng)、減少工資不平等Pro-activeMinimumWagepolicy-toberegularlyreviewed&adaptedthrutripartitesocialdialogue-helpstopromotewagefloor–ensuressharingingrowth積極的最低工資政策——定期審議、通過三方社會(huì)對(duì)話制定調(diào)整——有助于提高工資底線——確保共享增長成果Enforcelabourcontractlaw執(zhí)行《勞動(dòng)合同法》Socialsecurityforall人人享有社會(huì)保障Policiesrequired:

所需政策：RightAwordaboutTaxPolicy:

稅收政策：Incomeoftop20%peopleis18timesthatofthelowest20%people(ChineseAcademyofSocialScience)20%最富有人口收入是20%最低收入者的18倍（來源：中國社科院）In2006,salariedpersonscontributed60%ofthewholetaxincome,whiletherichcontributedonly10%.2006年，領(lǐng)取工資者對(duì)稅收總額的貢獻(xiàn)率為60%，而富人的納稅額只占10%。Improvethetaxationsystem,andreducetheburdenonlowincomegroups–reformtaxincentivestocorporatesector.改善稅收體系，減輕低收入群體的負(fù)擔(dān)——改革對(duì)公司的稅收激勵(lì)機(jī)制Improvethesocialsecuritycoverageinurbanandruralfamilies–usetaxrevenues÷ndsofSOEsforsocialtransfers&socialinvestments.提高城鄉(xiāng)家庭的社保覆蓋率——將稅收收入、國企紅利用于社會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移支付和社會(huì)投資。AwordaboutTaxPolicy:

稅收政策：Shiftingtowardsdomesticmarketrequiresalso

向國內(nèi)市場轉(zhuǎn)移還需要：HumanResourcepoliciestofacilitatetheindustrialrestructuring促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的人力資源政策Factorsofproduction&investmentcannotbeeasilyshifted–roleofStateinallocationofinvestmentandpromotionofskillstowardsareasthatneedtoexpandtomeethigherdomesticconsumption.生產(chǎn)和投資要素不會(huì)輕易轉(zhuǎn)移——國家在分配投資和促進(jìn)技能人才向需要拓展的領(lǐng)域轉(zhuǎn)移的作用，以滿足更高國內(nèi)消費(fèi)需求。Increasedpublicsocialwelfareexpenditureonhealth,education,socialprotection,especiallyinruralareas–thiswouldreduceprecautionaryhouseholdsavingsandincreasedisposableincome.增加社會(huì)公共福利支出，包括衛(wèi)生、教育、社會(huì)保護(hù)等，特別是在農(nóng)村地區(qū)——這將減少不穩(wěn)定就業(yè)家庭的儲(chǔ)蓄，增加居民可支配收入。Shiftingtowardsdomesticmark

EconomicgrowthisnecessaryButnotsufficientcondition.

經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展是必要條件，但并非充分條件。 Whatisalsoneededispoliciesthatpromote‘decentw