財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告分析三講報(bào)表分析的邏輯切入點(diǎn)

財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告分析理論與實(shí)踐

楊宇Ph.D

MBA廈門大學(xué)嘉庚學(xué)院電話漳廈)E-mail:rumac@第三講報(bào)表分析的邏輯切入點(diǎn)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題闡述報(bào)表分析的邏輯切入點(diǎn)基于M公司與GFC公司的案例分析本講旨在闡明報(bào)表分析的常見誤區(qū)，把握報(bào)表分析的邏輯體系研討要點(diǎn)與目的財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題三大核心問題問題1M公司與GFC公司孰優(yōu)孰劣？孰強(qiáng)孰弱？問題2M公司與GFC公司股票市值的反差原因何在？?？松梨趘s.中石油問題3如何評價(jià)M公司與GFC公司的業(yè)績？四大國有銀行社會(huì)效益

考倒全世界頂級(jí)MBA的難題財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題

項(xiàng)目名稱GFC公司

M公司

倍數(shù)合計(jì)M雇員人數(shù)

108.35.0521.45資產(chǎn)總額

8,862

67613.11銷售收入

5,236

28418.44現(xiàn)金流量

565

145

3.90股票市值

709

2,541

0.28財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題經(jīng)營規(guī)模--雇員人數(shù)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題經(jīng)營規(guī)模--資產(chǎn)總額財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題經(jīng)營規(guī)?！N售收入財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題經(jīng)營規(guī)模--CFFOA財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題股票市值(Capitalization)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題財(cái)務(wù)實(shí)力—凈資產(chǎn)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題

經(jīng)營績效—凈利潤財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)：GFCv.sM

項(xiàng)目名稱GFC公司

M公司

倍數(shù)GFC合計(jì)M雇員人數(shù)

36.5

35.0

36.8

108.35.0521.45資產(chǎn)總額

3,718

2,952

2,192

8,862

67613.11銷售收入

1,860

1,626

1,750

5,236

28418.44現(xiàn)金流量

171

186

208

565

145

3.90股票市值

200

196

313

709

2,541

0.28股東權(quán)益

68

56

408

532

540

0.99凈利潤

17

-10

55

62

78

0.79ROE

25%

-18%

13%

12%

14%

0.86新經(jīng)濟(jì)與舊經(jīng)濟(jì)的反差——行業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題1.科學(xué)管理(時(shí)間和動(dòng)作研究)2.成本核算和差異分析3.商業(yè)研究實(shí)驗(yàn)室(科學(xué)產(chǎn)業(yè)化)(GE)4.(ROI&ROE)資本分析和資本預(yù)算5.品牌管理(P&G)6.大規(guī)模項(xiàng)目管理7.事業(yè)部制(GM)8.領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力開發(fā)(GE)9.產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)聯(lián)合(多公司合作組織)(Visa)10.極度分權(quán)化(自我組織)(Google)11.正式化戰(zhàn)略分析12.員工驅(qū)動(dòng)問題解決法(Toyota)DuPontAnalysis13.臭鼬工廠(內(nèi)部攻堅(jiān)小組)14.客戶管理15.業(yè)務(wù)流程再造

1900-2000年175項(xiàng)管理創(chuàng)新1.是否明顯脫離以前的管理實(shí)踐2.是否給率先創(chuàng)新的公司帶來競爭優(yōu)勢

3.是否在當(dāng)今的組織中留下烙印

20世紀(jì)現(xiàn)代管理的12大創(chuàng)新財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題凈資產(chǎn)收益率

(收入+利得)–(成本+費(fèi)用+損失)實(shí)收資本+資本公積+盈余公積+未分配利潤

凈利潤ROE=

凈資產(chǎn)做大分子:增收節(jié)支做小分母:資本結(jié)構(gòu)ROE陷阱財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題權(quán)衡理論綜合考慮稅盾效應(yīng)和破產(chǎn)成本企業(yè)價(jià)值的計(jì)算公式：有負(fù)債企業(yè)價(jià)值＝無負(fù)債企業(yè)價(jià)值＋稅盾－破產(chǎn)和代理成本負(fù)債比例企業(yè)價(jià)值0D1D2無負(fù)債企業(yè)價(jià)值企業(yè)實(shí)際價(jià)值破產(chǎn)成本稅盾財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題經(jīng)營活動(dòng)與財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表經(jīng)營活動(dòng)營業(yè)活動(dòng)投資活動(dòng)融資活動(dòng)會(huì)計(jì)系統(tǒng)

計(jì)量和報(bào)告企業(yè)活動(dòng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)果財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表管理人員對企業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)活動(dòng)的信息優(yōu)勢會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)錯(cuò)誤會(huì)計(jì)選擇導(dǎo)致的歪曲經(jīng)營環(huán)境勞動(dòng)力市場資本市場產(chǎn)品市場供應(yīng)商

消費(fèi)者競爭對手所處行業(yè)會(huì)計(jì)環(huán)境資本市場結(jié)構(gòu)

契約和治理會(huì)計(jì)規(guī)定和慣例稅法和財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)的關(guān)系外部審計(jì)會(huì)計(jì)問題的法律規(guī)定經(jīng)營戰(zhàn)略企業(yè)經(jīng)營范圍:多樣化經(jīng)營的程度多樣化經(jīng)營的類型競爭地位:

成本領(lǐng)先差異化

成功關(guān)鍵因素和主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)計(jì)策略會(huì)計(jì)政策的選擇會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)的選擇報(bào)告形式的選擇財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告附注披露內(nèi)容的選擇財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題盈利質(zhì)量現(xiàn)金流量資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量

財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表分析的三大邏輯切入點(diǎn)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題盈利質(zhì)量收入質(zhì)量利潤質(zhì)量毛利率成長性波動(dòng)性研發(fā)營銷盈利質(zhì)量分析方法財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題收入質(zhì)量(QualityofRevenue)

MSFT

GM

F

DCX(ED)

1999

197

1690

1601

1482

2000

230

1739

1698

1603

2001

253

1691

1609

1540

2002

284

1773

1623

1474

2003

322

1855

1642

1364

2004

368

1935

1709

1421

2005

398

1926

1771

1498

2006

443

2073

1601

1516

2007

511

1881

1725

1526財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題收入質(zhì)量(QualityofRevenue)——趨勢圖表財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題

利潤質(zhì)量(QualityofProfit)

MSFT

GM

F

DCX(ED)

1999

79

6072

57

2000

94

4535

79

2001

736-55

-7

2002

7817-10

47

2003

95385

4

2004

902835

25

2005

122-10620

28

2006

126-21-124

32

2007

141-387-25

40財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題利潤質(zhì)量(QualityofProfit)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題

Rival

Amount

DateTimeWarner（2002虧損987億美元）

$750m

May2003SunMicro

$1.95b

April2004Novell

$536m

Nov.2004B

$60mMarch2005Gateway

$150mApril2005IBM

$775mJune2005

Total

$4.221bMicrosoftSettlement(Antitrustsuitfiledin1998,settledin2001)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題項(xiàng)目名稱

GM

Ford

DaimlerChrysler

2004

2005

2004

2005

2004

2005銷售收入1,935.171,926.041,716.461,781.01

1,682.261,773.65其中:汽車1,615.461,582.211,471.281,545.15

1,517.191,590.82金融

319.71

343.83

245.18

235.86

165.07

182.83凈利潤

27.89

-105.54

34.87

19.98

29.20

33.70其中:汽車

-1.05

-130.62

-1.55

-39.26

n.a

n.a金融

28.08

25.08

50.08

58.81

n.a

n.a經(jīng)營業(yè)績:2005vs.2004財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題2006:艱難的轉(zhuǎn)折?ChryslerGroup2006OperatingLoss$152007totalLoss$29.2May15,2007soldfor$74May10,1998boughtfor$360

GM

Ford

DCX

Q1

4.45

-11.87

2.99

Q2

-33.79

-2.54

18.10

Q3

-1.15

-58.00

5.51

Q4

+9.50

-51.64

5.67

Total

-20.99

-124.05

32.272007:-$3872008H1:-$190SEasoftheendof2008H1GM:-570;Ford:-172008H1-$84財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題毛利率(GrossProfitMargin)會(huì)計(jì)年度

G

F

C

M

2001

9.2%

1.8%

16.1%

86.3%

2002

7.8%

6.8%

18.8%

81.6%

2003

8.0%

6.2%

19.4%

81.2%

2004

7.0%

7.8%

19.4%

81.8%

2005

-2.5%

5.6%

17.9%

84.4%

2006

4.8%

-3.9%

17.1%

81.1%

2007

6.7%

7.6%

24.8%

79.1%

2008

80.8%財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題M公司的成本費(fèi)用結(jié)構(gòu)3EStrategyEmbraceExtinguishExtend財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題

R&D占銷售收入比重2006年2248家企業(yè)集團(tuán)R&D占比1.1%GM2003-20053.33%;3.34%;3.47%財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)金含量退出壁壘經(jīng)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)財(cái)務(wù)彈性潛在損失

資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量分析方法技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題何為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?Riskisuncertainty風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的類別經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)(EconomicRisk)環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)(經(jīng)濟(jì)條件、政治及社會(huì)環(huán)境）市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（市場結(jié)構(gòu)、企業(yè)競爭優(yōu)勢）經(jīng)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（OperationalRisk)固定成本與變動(dòng)成本比例財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（FinancialRisk)資本結(jié)構(gòu)與金融市場利率營業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)BusinessRisk利潤易變性ProfitVolatility傳導(dǎo)傳導(dǎo)成本結(jié)構(gòu)與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題

XYZ公司風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估測算表預(yù)期數(shù)

銷售收入+5%

銷售收入-5%銷售收入

50,000

+5%52,500

-5%

47,500減:變動(dòng)成本

19,000

+5%19,950

-5%

18,050

固定成本

20,000

0%20,000

0%

20,000息稅前利潤

11,000

+14%12,550

-14%

9,450減:固定利息支出

2,500

0%

2,500

0%

2,500稅前利潤

8,500

+18%10,050

-18%

6,950減:所得稅

2,125

+18%

2,513

-18%

1,738稅后利潤

6,375

+18%

7,537

-18%

5,212風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)放大效應(yīng)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題

+5%+14%+18%

-5%-14%-18%

經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

經(jīng)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

營業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況政治社會(huì)環(huán)境銷售收入息稅前利潤稅后利潤市場結(jié)構(gòu)競爭優(yōu)勢

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的傳導(dǎo)與放大財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2001)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2002)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2003)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2004)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2005)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題現(xiàn)金流量經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流量自由現(xiàn)金流量“造血”功能自由裁量現(xiàn)金流量分析方法財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題現(xiàn)金流量表經(jīng)營活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量投資活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量籌資活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量造血功能抽血功能輸血功能財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題廣義的自由現(xiàn)金流量FCF=經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流量-資本支出（更新改造）用于評估還本付息和股利支付的能力狹義的自由現(xiàn)金流量FCF=經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流量-資本支出-現(xiàn)金股利用于評估企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)彈性利用市場機(jī)遇和應(yīng)對市場逆境的能力用于評估企業(yè)依靠內(nèi)部現(xiàn)金資源謀求發(fā)展的能力CFFOAvs.FreeCashFlow財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題現(xiàn)金流量趨勢:G(12vs.73)200420052006FCF

+53

-250

-197Interest

120

158

1702007CF-O:77;CF-CE:75Int.:29;P:1844財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題1.1millionofemployeescovered,pensionandhealthcareliabilitytotaled$170b,currentShortage$54bGM-不堪重負(fù)的醫(yī)療與退休債務(wù)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題現(xiàn)金流量趨勢:M財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題Microsoft:股票期權(quán)的妙用IfyouworkforMicrosoft,Microsoftdoesnotpayyou,youhavetopayMicrosoft2003-2008166.40財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題BillGates的”裸捐”WarrenBuffettdonated$37billion,mainlytotheBill&MelindaGatesFoundation+$50財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題三大邏輯切入點(diǎn)盈利質(zhì)量資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量現(xiàn)金流量收入質(zhì)量利潤質(zhì)量毛利率高低成長性退出壁壘潛在損失經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流量自由現(xiàn)金流量波動(dòng)性資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)金含量”造血“功能自由裁量研發(fā)營銷報(bào)表分析三大邏輯切入點(diǎn)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題盈利質(zhì)量與資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量相互背離案例財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題年度凈利潤C(jī)FFOA

1998

9,876-17,191

1999

12,308-21,248

2000

17,844-53,576

2001

3,610-2,594

2002

2,280-84,807

2003-18,683-15,544

2004

1,982

45,300

2005-69,600

21,600

2006-71,866

16,413年度凈利潤比例調(diào)整前

17,844調(diào)整后

6,995

39.2%調(diào)整額

10,849

60.8%調(diào)整原因?qū)⒃?jì)入長期待攤費(fèi)用和在建工程的R&D，作為重大會(huì)計(jì)差錯(cuò)進(jìn)行調(diào)整

“紙面富貴”的D公司財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題

樂極生悲的四川長虹凈利潤20010.891.762.412004-36.812004Q1-Q3CFFOA-3.12財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題哈佛分析框架經(jīng)營活動(dòng)營業(yè)活動(dòng)投資活動(dòng)融資活動(dòng)會(huì)計(jì)系統(tǒng)

計(jì)量和報(bào)告企業(yè)活動(dòng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)果財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表管理人員對企業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)活動(dòng)的信息優(yōu)勢會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)錯(cuò)誤會(huì)計(jì)選擇導(dǎo)致的歪曲經(jīng)營環(huán)境勞動(dòng)力市場資本市場產(chǎn)品市場供應(yīng)商

消費(fèi)者競爭對手所處行業(yè)會(huì)計(jì)環(huán)境資本市場結(jié)構(gòu)

契約和治理會(huì)計(jì)規(guī)定和慣例稅法和財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)的關(guān)系外部審計(jì)會(huì)計(jì)問題的法律規(guī)定經(jīng)營戰(zhàn)略企業(yè)經(jīng)營范圍:多樣化經(jīng)營的程度多樣化經(jīng)營的類型競爭地位:

成本領(lǐng)先差異化

成功關(guān)鍵因素和主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)計(jì)策略會(huì)計(jì)政策的選擇會(huì)計(jì)估計(jì)的選擇報(bào)告形式的選擇財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告附注披露內(nèi)容的選擇財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題

哈佛分析框架構(gòu)成要素戰(zhàn)略分析會(huì)計(jì)分析財(cái)務(wù)分析前景分析財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題Dell的凈資產(chǎn)收益率2003-2006$92mvs.$12b財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題Dell的凈利潤vs.經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流量財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題Dell:流動(dòng)比率財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題

Dell:存貨周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題

Dell:應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題

Dell:應(yīng)付賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)專題項(xiàng)目名稱

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08應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天