美國汽車融資租賃市場前景及投資研究報告-培訓課件外文版2024.4

INDUSTRIES

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MARKETSCarfinancingandleasingintheUnitedStatesCHAPTER

01CarloansCompositionofthetotalhouseholddebtbalanceintheUnitedStatesfrom2003to2022,bytypeoflendingCompositionofhouseholdcreditintheU.S.2003-2022,bytypeoflendingMortgageHErevolvingAutoloanCreditcardStudentloanOther100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2003

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20223Description:Mortgagesmadeupover71percentoftheoveralltotalhouseholddebtbalanceintheUnitedStatesin2022.Studentloansandcarloansrepresentedbetweensixandninepercentoftheoverallhouseholddebtbalance.Thedistributionofhouseholdcredithasbeenrelativelystablesince2007.HErevolvingcreditwasthetypeofhouseholdlendingwiththesmallestmarketshare,apartfromtheothercategory.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2003to2022Source(s):NewYorkFed;TotalcarloanbalancesintheUnitedStatesfrom2ndquarter2006to2ndquarter2023(intrillionU.S.dollars)TotalcarloanbalancesintheU.S.2006-20231.81.61.41.21.00.80.64Description:TheautomotiveloanbalancesintheUnitedStateswereapproximately80billionU.S.dollarshigherinthesecondquarterof2023thanayearearlier.Duringthepastyears,thevalueofoutstandingcarloanshavebeenincreasingsteadilywithonlyafewexceptions,suchasaslightdeclinefromthefirsttothesecondquarterof2020duetothestartoftheCOVID-19pandemic.ReadmoreNote(s):2ndquarter2006to2ndquarter2023Source(s):NewYorkFedShareofusedandnewvehicleswithfinancingintheUnitedStatesfrom2017to2023ShareofusedandnewU.S.vehicleswithfinancing2017-2023NewUsed100%88.85%87.6%87.17%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%85.9%86.1%54.7%83.49%79.7%53.6%201745.09%202041.45%202240.3%201940.11%202138.36%202320185Description:MostofthenewvehiclesintheUnitedStatesin2023wereacquiredusingsomekindoffinancing,whilethatappliedtolessthanhalfofusedcars.Nearly80percentofnewcarshadfinancing,afigurethatissignificantlylowerthanin2020.In2023,theshareofusedcarsacquiredwithfinancingwasalsolowerthanin2020.ReadmoreNote(s):2017to2023;FiguresasofthesecondquarterofeachyearSource(s):ExperianDistributionofvehicleloansourcesintheUnitedStatesfrom2017to2023DistributionofvehicleloansintheU.S.2017-2023,bylendertypeBankCaptivefinanceCreditunion11.68%FinancecompanyBuyhere,payhere/Others100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%11.6%11.69%12%11.32%11.81%10.99%10.52%13.09%11.81%11.39%22.34%12.06%20.09%13.16%12.22%18.33%28.36%21.13%25.12%18.81%27.51%22.49%29.05%25.96%24.9%25.71%22.15%30.33%201731.27%201929.46%202030.18%202128.87%201827.75%202224.84%20236Description:Carloansgrantedbybanksconstitutednearly24percentofallautomobilefinancingintheUnitedStatesinthesecondquarterof2023.Alowervaluethaninthepreviousyear.Captivefinance,whichreferstosubsidiariesofcarmanufacturersordealersthatfinancethepurchaseofcars,hadaslightlysmallermarketshare.Finally,buyhere,payhere(BHPH)andothertypesoflendinghadthesmallestmarketshare.InBHPH,thecardealerwherethevehicleisbought,alsolendsmoneyto[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2017to2023;Figuresasofthesecondquarterofeachyear.Source(s):ExperianValueofcarloanoriginationsintheUnitedStatesfrom2007to2022,byage(inbillionU.S.dollars)ValueofcarloanoriginationsintheU.S.2007-2022,byage18-2930-3940-4950-5960-6970+800700600500400300200100020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120227Description:ThevalueofcarloansoriginatedintheUnitedStatesin2022wasevenlydistributedacrossdifferentagegroups.Individualsof70yearsorolderwerebyfartheoneswiththeleastamountofnewloans.Borrowersintheir30sand40sweretheoneswithmostcarloanoriginations.Meanwhile,inthepastyears,U.S.carloanswithacreditscoreofover760madeupmostoftheautomobilefinancing.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2007to2022Source(s):NewYorkFed;NetpercentageofdomesticbanksreportingstrongerdemandforcarloansintheUnitedStatesfrom1stquarter2012to4thquarter2023DemandforcarloansintheU.S.2012-2023403020100-10-20-30-40-50-608Description:Inlate2023,mostbanksintheUnitedStatesperceivedasharpdeclineinthedemandforcarloans.Thenetpercentageshowsthedifferencebetweentheseniorloanofficersthatreportedagrowthindemandandthosethatreportedafallindemandforcarloans.Anyfigureabovezerosignalsthatover50percentofrespondentsperceivedanincreaseindemand,whilefiguresbelowzerosignalthatatleasthalfoftheofficersinterviewedobservedadeclineindemand.

ReadmoreNote(s):1stquarter2012to4thquarter2023;104seniorloanofficers;NotseasonallyadjustedSource(s):St.LouisFedNetpercentageofdomesticbanksreportingtighteningstandardsforcarloansintheUnitedStatesfrom1stquarter2017to4thquarter2023TighteningstandardsforcarloansintheU.S.2017-20236050403020100-10-20-30Q1

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20239Description:Inthelastquarterof2023,thereweremorebanksintheUnitedStatestighteningratherthanlooseningthestandardsforcarloans.Thenetpercentageshowsthedifferencebetweentheseniorloanofficersthatreportedtighterstandardsandthosethatreportedloosercarloanstandards.Anyfigureabovezerosignalsthatover50percentofrespondentsperceivedstricterlendingstandards.Incontrast,figuresbelowzeroindicatethatatleasthalfoftheofficersinterviewedobservedthat[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):1stquarter2017to4thquarter2023;104seniorloanofficers;NotseasonallyadjustedSource(s):St.LouisFedCHAPTER

02CarleasesPercentageofnewvehiclesonleaseintheUnitedStatesfrom3rdquarterof2017to3rdquarterof2023ShareofallnewU.S.vehiclesthatareleased2017-202340%35%30%25%20%15%Q32017Q32018Q32019Q32020Q32021Q32022Q3202311Description:Overone-fifthofnewvehiclesintheUnitedStateswereleasedin2023,withtherestbeingsoldoutright.Thepercentagefoundinthethirdquarterof2021wasevenhigher,with26percentofnewvehiclesintheU.Sbeingleasedthatyear.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;Q32017toQ32023Source(s):ExperianNumberofleasesofnewvehiclesintheUnitedStatesfrom1990to2022,bytypeofvehicle(in1,000sofvehicles)NumberofleasesofnewvehiclesintheU.S.1990-2022,byvehicletypePassengercarsLighttrucks6,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,00001990

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202212Description:In2022,therewerefarmoreleasesfornewlighttrucksthanfornewpassengercarsintheUnitedStates.Whilethenumberofcarleaseswaslessthanhalfamillion,therewereroughly1.8milliontruckleasesthatyear.Thisdifferencehaswidenedalotinthepastyears.Overall,theshareofallnewvehiclesthatareleasedintheU.S.increasedslightlyin2023.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;1990to2022Source(s):BureauofTransportationStatistics;CNWMR;EdmundsMarketshareofleadingnewleasingvehiclemodelsintheUnitedStatesin3rdquarter2023MarketshareofleadingnewleasingvehiclemodelsintheU.S.2023Shareofvehicles1.0%0.0%CR-V(Honda)0.5%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%2.76%F-150(Ford)Rogue(Nissan)2.45%2.15%Silverado1500(Chevrolet)WranglerUnlimited(Jeep)Accord(Honda)1.99%1.92%1.9%GrandCherokee(Jeep)Civic(Honda)1.84%1.78%Equinox(Chevrolet)CX-5(Mazda)1.67%1.56%13Description:HondaCR-VhadthelargestmarketshareofnewleasingcarsintheUnitedStatesinthethirdquarterof2023.However,FordF-150andNissanRoguewerealsoverywellpositionedwithamarketshareofovertwopercentintheleasingindustry.HondaCR-Vhadaround2.76percentofthenewleaseautomarketduringthatquarter,whileChevroletSilverado1500hadamarketshareofnearlytwopercent.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;3rd2023Source(s):ExperianAdvertisingspendingintheautomotiverentalandleasingindustryintheUnitedStatesfrom2021to2022(inmillionU.S.dollars)U.S.automotiverentalandleasingindustryadspend2021-2022400344.8935030025020015010050258.8402021202214Description:InasurveyofrepresentativesoftheautomotiverentalandleasingindustryintheUnitedStates,itwasfoundthatin2022thesectorspentnearly344.9millionU.S.dollarsonadvertising.Basedondatafromthepreviousyear'sreportingtheadexpendituresfortheindustryamountedto258.8milliondollars.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2021to2022;excludingdrivers;IndustrySICcode:7510Source(s):Schonfeld&AssociatesCHAPTER

03InterestratesInterestratesonnewcarloansintheUnitedStatesfrom1stquarter2019to1stquarter2023,bytypeCarloaninterestratesintheU.S.2019-2023,bytypeCommercialbank48-monthloansCommercialbank60-monthloansCommercialbank72-monthloansCarloansatfinancecompanies8.0%7.5%7.0%6.5%6.0%5.5%5.0%4.5%4.0%Q12019

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Q1202316Description:Asofthefirstquarterof2023,60-monthnewcarloansgrantedbycommercialbankshadthehighestinterestrateintheUnitedStates.Meanwhile,autoloansatfinancecompanieshadaninterestrateofjustoversixpercent,whichislowerthantheaveragerateincommercialbanks.Thefinanceratesfornewcarsfellin2020and2021,buttheyhavebeenrisingsince2022.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;1stquarter2019to1stquarter2023Source(s):NewYorkFedInterestrateson60-monthnewcarloansintheUnitedStatesfromFebruary2014toNovember2023MonthlycarloanratesintheU.S.2014-20238.0%7.5%7.0%6.5%6.0%5.5%5.0%4.5%4.0%3.5%3.0%17Description:CarloaninterestratesintheUnitedStateskeptincreasinginNovember2023,afterincreasingforseveralmonthsinarow.IntheU.S.,theinterestrateonfive-yearcarloansdecreasedbetween2019andDecember2021,whenitreachedthelowestvalueof3.85percent.However,theinterestratehassoaredinthemonthsafterthat,reaching7.5percentinSeptember2023.TheaveragesizeofnewcarloansandleasingintheU.S.hasriseninthepastcoupleofyears,increasingfurtherthe[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;February2014toNovember2023;Averageinterestrateona60-monthnewcarloan;valuesasofthelastwednesdayofthemonth.Source(s):BankrateAnnualpercentagerate(APR)ofloansfornewcarsinselectedU.S.statesasofNovember2023,bytypeofcarAnnualpercentagerateofnewcarloansinselectedU.S.states2023,bytypeofcarTexasPennsylvaniaFloridaIllinoisNewYorkCalifornia12%10%8%6%4%2%0%SUVsTrucksElectriccarsSedans18Description:Theannualpercentagerate(APR)ofanewSUVinCaliforniaamountedto6.77percentasofNovember2023.Ingeneral,electriccarshadalowerinterestratethanothertypesofcarsintheUnitedStates.AmongtheU.S.statesincludedhere,FloridahadthehighestAPRforloansonnewcars.Theannualpercentagerateisameasurementthatprovidesinformationaboutthecostofborrowing,which,incontrasttotheinterestrates,alsoincludesfeesandotherelements.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;November2023Source(s):EdmundsAnnualpercentagerate(APR)ofloansforusedcarsinselectedU.S.statesasofNovember2023,bytypeofcarAnnualpercentagerateofusedcarloansinselectedU.S.states2023,bytypeofcarTexasPennsylvaniaFloridaIllinoisNewYorkCalifornia16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%SUVsTrucksElectriccarsSedans19Description:AsofNovember2023,theannualpercentagerate(APR)forusedsedanswashigherthanforanyothertypeofcarinmostU.S.states.Amongthestatesincludedinthisselection,TexashadthehighestfinancingcostsforSUVs,trucks,andsedans.Meanwhile,electriccarshadthehighestAPRinPennsylvania.InsomestateslikeTexas,Illinois,andCaliforniaelectriccarshadalowerAPRthanothertypesofvehicles,butinNewYorkandPennsylvaniaelectriccarshadthehighestinterestrates.[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;November2023Source(s):EdmundsCHAPTER

04Payments&maturityAveragepaymentsandamountfinancedforusedandnewcarfinancingintheUnitedStatesasof3rdquarter2023(inU.S.dollars)CarfinancingpaymentsandamountfinancedintheU.S.2023AmountfinancedDownpaymentMonthlypayment45,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,00040,14929,3286,9074,1117365670NewcarsUsedcars21Description:TheaveragemonthlypaymentfornewcarfinancingintheUnitedStateswason169U.S.dollarshigherthanforusedcarsin2023.Meanwhile,thedownpaymentfornewautomobileswasseveralthousandU.S.dollarshigherthanforusedones.Inthethirdquarterof2023,theaverageamountfinancedforthepurchaseofanewcarwasover40,000U.S.dollars.Theaveragematurityofnewcarloansatfinancecompaniespeakedinthesecondquarterof2020at71months.

ReadmoreNote(s):3rdquarter2023Source(s):EdmundsAverageamountofnewandusedcarfinancingintheUnitedStatesfrom4thquarter2015to1stquarter2022(in1,000U.S.dollars)Averagefinancingamountofnewandusedvehicles2015-2022NewUsed4540353025201540.5928.6140.6626.8639.5427.9535.5824.0635.2335.3933.8333.2631.3331.130.6229.5522.4722.3820.8220.6919.5919.7119.3318.85Q42015Q42016Q42017Q42018Q42019Q12020Q42020Q12021Q22021Q12022Q22022Q2202322Description:Inthesecondquarterof2023,theaveragesizeofcarfinancingintheUnitedStateswaslowerthanayearearlier.However,thosefigureshadbeenincreasinguntil2022,asthesizeofcarloansandleasingtendstogrowtomatchthechangingcarprices.TheaverageamountofnewcarfinancingintheU.S.amountedto40,660U.S.dollarsinthesecondquarterof2023.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;Q42015toQ12022Source(s):ExperianAveragemonthlypaymentfornewandusedvehiclefinancingintheUnitedStatesfrom2020to2023,bytype(inU.S.dollars)AverageU.S.monthlypaymentfornewandusedvehiclefinancing2020-2023,bytype20202021202220238007006005004003002001000726701617597571565529533513473454401NewcarloansUsedcarloansNewcarleases23Description:In2023,newcarleaseswerethetypeofvehiclefinancingwiththehighestaveragemonthlypayment.MonthlycarloanpaymentsintheUnitedStatestendtoincreaseeachyear,withthemonthlypaymentfornewcarloansreaching725U.S.dollarsinthethirdquarterof2023.TheaveragemonthlypaymentforusedcarloansintheU.S.amountedto533U.S.dollarsinthethirdquarterof2023.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2020to2023;asofQ3ofeachyear.Source(s):ExperianAveragemonthlyvehicleleasepaymentintheUnitedStatesfrom2021to2023,byrisktier(inU.S.dollars)AveragemonthlynewautomobileleasepaymentintheU.S.2021-20232021202220237006216125915765736005004003002001000560563533489492477452SubprimeNearprimePrimeSuperprime24Description:TheaveragemonthlypaymentforasuperprimecarleaseintheUnitedStateswas563U.S.dollarsinthesecondquarterof2023.Thiswasanimportantincreaseincomparisontotheprevioustwoyears.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2021to2023;FiguresasofQ2eachyearSource(s):ExperianDistributionofautoloantermsofnewandusedvehicleswithfinancingintheUnitedStatesin3rdquarterof2023AutoloantermsofnewandusedU.S.vehicles2023NewUsed45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%42.01%38.65%29.15%27.19%18.93%17.16%13.4%11.03%1.91%85monthsorlonger1.64%85monthsorlonger0.84%0.61%0%1to48months49to60months61to72months73to84months25Description:Asofthethirdquarterof2023,thelargestshareoftheloansforbothnewandusedcarsintheUnitedStatesweretakenforatermbetween61and72months.Around29percentofnewcarfinancingloansand27percentofusedcarfinancingloansintheU.S.weretakenforaperiodfrom73to84months.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;3rdquarterof2023Source(s):ExperianAveragematurityofnewcarloansatfinancecompaniesintheUnitedStatesfrom1stquarter2011to2ndquarter2023(inmonths)AveragematurityofnewcarloansatfinancecompaniesintheU.S.2011-20237371696765636159575526Description:NewcarloansatfinancecompaniesintheUnitedStateshad,onaverage,aloantermofover65monthsinthesecondquarterof2023.Thesefigurespeakedinthesecondquarterof2020.Atthattime,theaverageborrowerofcreditfornewautomobilesneededtomakemonthlypaymentsfor71months.Afterthat,theirdebtwouldhavebeenpaidoff.Themonthlypaymentforusedcarloanswaslowerthanfornewcars.

ReadmoreNote(s):1stquarter2011to2ndquarter2023;NotSeasonallyAdjustedSource(s):St.LouisFedCHAPTER

05RiskanddelinquencyDistributionofautomotiveloanoriginationsintheUnitedStatesfrom2016to2023,byrisksegmentDistributionofU.S.carloanoriginations2016-2023,byrisksegmentDeepsubprimeSubprimeNonprimePrimeSuperprime100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2016201720182019202020212022202328Description:Asofthesecondquarterof2023,overhalfoftheopenautomotiveloansintheUnitedStateswereprimeorsuperprimeloans.Subprimeandnonprimehadeachasimilarmarketshareofthenewcarloanoriginationsinthecountry,whichrangedbetween14and19percent.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2016to2023;asofthesecondquarterSource(s):ExperianValueofcarloansoriginatedintheUnitedStatesfrom2004to2022,byriskscore(inbillionU.S.dollars)ValueofcarloansoriginatedintheU.S.2004-2022,byriskscore<620620-659660-719720-759760+8007006005004003002001000200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202229Description:Theriskscoresof760andabovewerethemostvaluableautoloansintheUnitedStatesamountingtonearly250in2022.Thevalueofautoloansthatoriginatedwithinthatriskscorecategoryamountedto245.1billionU.S.dollarsin2021.Meanwhile,thevalueofautoloansthatoriginatedfromthelowestriskscorecategory-of620andless-was123.3billionU.S.dollarsin2021.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2004to2022Source(s):NewYorkFed;AveragecreditscoreofnewcarloansandleasesandleasesintheUnitedStatesfrom2012to2023AveragecreditscoreofnewcarloansandleasesintheU.S.2012-2023LoansLeases74073573773373673073472673372773272372971973072572071571072772671872171471971671871371871771320122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202330Description:TheaveragecreditscoreofborrowerswithnewcarloansintheUnitedStatesincreasedby4pointsfrom2019to2023.Inthethirdquarterof2023,theaveragecreditscoreofborrowersofnewcarloanswas733,whilethecreditscoreofpeoplewithnewleasedcarswas737pointsin2023.Leaseshadonaveragehigherriskscoresthanloansthroughoutthetimeline.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2012to2023;DataasofQ3eachyear.Source(s):ExperianAveragecreditscoreofusedandnewcarloanoriginationsintheUnitedStatesfrom2018to2023AveragecreditscoreofusedandnewcarloanoriginationsintheU.S.2018-2023NewcarsUsedcars7457357257157056956856756656557367356907347327317307257246876856846816816696632018201