UBS Economics-European Economic Perspectives -Riksbank cuts bps to .% and hints at two more cuts in H-此為英文文檔

ab

GlobalResearchandEvidenceLab8May2024

EuropeanEconomicPerspectives

Riksbankcuts25bpsto3.75%andhintsattwomorecutsinH2-2024

Riksbankcutsratesby25bpsto3.75%,asexpected

Inlinewithourandconsensusexpectations,theRiksbankcutitspolicyrateby25bpsto3.75%,thusstartingtheeasingcycle.Initsdecision,theRiksbankhadtoweighthetrade-offbetweensubsidinginflationandweakgrowthontheonehandandaweakeningkronaontheotherside.Asregardstheguidanceforfuturepolicy,theRiksbanksaid"Iftheoutlookforinflationstillholds,thepolicyrateisexpectedtobecuttwomoretimesduringthesecondhalfoftheyear,inlinewiththeMarchforecast".Nevertheless,wemaintainourcallforthreemorecutsthisyear(inAugust,September,December),whichwouldbringSwedishpolicyratesto3.0%byend-24,butweflagariskoflessifeasingintheUSremainsuncertain.Bythetimeofwriting,themarketswerepricingacumulative29.3bpsofcutsbyAugust,34.3bpsbySeptember,and56.7bpsbyDecember.

Disinflationfasterthanexpected,butrisksfromgeopoliticsandtheSEK

TheRiksbankclearlyacknowledgedthebroad-basedprogressindisinflation(CPIFat2.2%y/y,coreat2.9%y/yinMarch),withinflationnow0.5ppbelowtheBank'sMarchforecast(core0.4pplower).AccordingtotheRiksbank,annualisedinflationhasfallenbelow2%,wagegrowthremainsmoderate,corporatepricingbehaviourisbecomingmoresubdued,andlong-terminflationexpectationsremainwellanchoredaroundtheinflationtarget.However,theRiksbankstressedgeopoliticaltensionsandkronadepreciation(4.5%YTD)asupsiderisksforinflation:"IfthestrongdevelopmentsintheUnitedStatescontinue,theSwedishkronacoulddepreciateevenfurtherandleadtohigherimportpricesforbusinesses".Thatsaid,furtherSEKweaknesswouldnotnecessarilyimplyasmuchinflationarypressureasitdidin2021/2022:AstheRiksbankpointedout:"However,theeffectoninflationdependson[corporate]pricingbehaviour.Itisuncertaintowhatextent[corporates]cancontinuetopassontheincreasedcoststoconsumerpricesinaweakereconomicsituation."

GDPgrowthweak,butexpectedtorisegradually

AccordingtotheRiksbank"SwedishGDPgrowthhasbeenweak[-0.1%q/qinQ1-24]butisexpectedtorisegradually",thankstoimprovingrealwagegrowth,risingconsumerandbusinessconfidence,andagradualdeclineinmortgagerates.TheBankexpectsthelabourmarkettoweakenfurther,withunemployment(8.3%inMarch)somewhathigherthananticipatedinMarch.Jobvacanciesaredeclining,redundanciesarerelativelyhighandthenumberofbankruptciesarehigh."Overall,thispointstohigherunemploymentintheperiodahead".

Policyrateoutlook:WemaintainourcallforthenextcutinAugust

GiventheRiksbank'sconcernaboutexchangerateweaknessanditsfocusondatadependence,webelieveitwillnowneedtimetoassesstheimpactoftoday'scutonthecurrencyandanyresultinginflationaryimpactfromhigherimportprices.Moreover,itwillwanttoseehowthedomesticeconomyreactstothestartoftheeasingcycle.GiventheSwedisheconomy'shighinterestratesensitivity,thisisanimportantdeterminantoffuturegrowthandinflation.Wethinkthatatleasttwoorthreeinflationprints,sentimentsurveyroundsandharddatareleaseswillbenecessarytoconfirmthattheinflationoutlookisstillontrack.Wethereforeexpectthesecond25bpratecuttobedeliveredon19August,followedbytwomore25bpcutsinSeptemberandDecember2024,andthen25bpscutseveryquarterthroughout2025,suchthatthepolicyratereaches3.0%byend-2024and2.0%byend-2025.However,theresilientUSeconomyanduncertainFedoutlookimplyariskoffewercutsthisyear.

Economics

Nordic

FranziskaFischer

Economist

franziska.fischer@+41-44-2392054

ReinhardCluse

Economist

reinhard.cluse@+44-20-75686722

YvanBerthoux

Strategist

yvan.berthoux@+44-20-79015513

FelixHuefner

Economist

felix.huefner@+49-69-13698280

AnnaTitareva

Economist

anna.titareva@+44-20-75685083

ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSAG.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURES,includinginformationontheQuantitativeResearchReviewpublishedbyUBS,beginonpage7.

Figure4:Swedishinflation(%3m/3mann.,sa)Figure5:Swedishinflationexpectations(%)

EuropeanEconomicPerspectives8May2024ab3

6%

Source:Haver,UBS,TNSProspera(Inflationexpectationsamongmoneymarketparticipants)

Figure7:ChangeintheunemploymentratesincetheDecember2019,pp

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0

-2.5

-3.0

SwedenGermanyFranceItalySpainEurozone

Source:Haver,UBS

Figure8:Priceexpectations,standardisedbalance

5

standardized

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

Jan19Oct19Jul20Apr21Jan22Oct22Jul23Apr24

ManufacturingConsumerRetailtradeServices

14%

12%

5%

10%

4%

8%

6%

3%

4%

2%

2%

0%

1%

-2%

0%

-4%

20102012201420162018202020222024

Jan20Jul20Jan21Jul21Jan22Jul22Jan23Jul23Jan24

CPIFCPIFexenergyGoodsexcludingfoodServices

1yearahead2year5year

Source:Haver,UBSestimates

Figure6:Unemploymentgrowth(%y/y)

rate

(%)

and

employment

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

-1%

-2%

-3%

2001

10.0%9.5%9.0%8.5%8.0%7.5%7.0%6.5%6.0%5.5%

5.0%

2004200720102013201620192022

Employment(%y/y)Unemploymentratetrend(%,rhs)

Source:Haver,UBS

Figure9:Economicsentiment,standardisedbalance

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

standardized

Jan19Oct19Jul20Apr21Jan22Oct22Jul23Apr24

IndustrialConsumerRetailtradeServicesConstruction

Source:Haver,UBS

Source:Haver,UBS

Figure10:RiksbankpolicyrateprojectionsFigure11:KIXeffectiveexchangerateindex

EuropeanEconomicPerspectives8May2024ab4

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

-1%

2008201020122014201620182020202220242026

Policyrate(average)Riksbank'srateforecast(Nov'23)

Riksbank'srateforecast(Mar'24)UBSrateforecasts

Source:Haver,UBS

135

130

125

120

115

110

105

100

199319972001200520092013201720212025

KIXindex

Riksbank'sMarchforecast

Riksbank'sNovemberforecast

Source:Haver,UBS.Note:AhigherKIXdenotesaweakerkronaexchangerate.

Figure12:Riksbank'sassetholdingsincl.forecast,assumingSEK6.5bnsalespermonth(SEKbn)

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

2015

2017

Governmentbonds

20192021

CoveredbondsTreasurybills

2023

Corporatebonds

2025

2027

Municipalbonds

Source:Riksbank,UBS

EuropeanEconomicPerspectives8May2024ab5

Figure13:Swedenheatmap

LatestRelease

Long-

term

average

Apr23

May23

Jun23

Jul23

Aug23

Sep23

Oct23

Nov23

Dec23

Jan24

Feb24

Mar24

Harddata

Industrialproduction,y/y

%y/y

-2.7(00-yy)

0.8

3.2

1.6

-7.1

-8.1

1.4

-4.0

0.0

3.5

2.8

-1.1

-2.7

Retailsales,y/y

%y/y

0.1(00-yy)

3.1

-8.0

-7.0

-4.8

-3.3

-3.2

-5.3

-1.6

-3.0

-2.0

-1.9

0.1

1.5

Indexofservices,y/y

%y/y

1.9(00-yy)

2.6

1.2

-0.9

-2.3

0.5

0.8

-2.2

-2.3

-1.5

-1.7

-1.4

1.9

MonthlyGDP

%m/m

-0.3(00-yy)

0.2

-0.1

0.5

-2.0

1.3

-0.4

-0.1

0.2

-0.2

-0.1

0.4

-0.3

-0.3

GDPq/q

Exportsy/y

%q/q

%y/y

-0.1(00-yy)3.7(00-yy)

0.5

3.6

-0.71.5

-0.71.5

-0.71.5

-0.10.3

-0.10.3

-0.10.3

-0.13.7

-0.13.7

-0.13.7

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

SurveyIndicators

CompositePMI,Index

Index

50.6(00-yy)

55.4

49.2

47.1

45.8

52.0

48.0

45.6

48.2

48.9

50.1

50.5

50.6

52.8

ServicesPMI,Index

Index

51.2(00-yy)

55.9

50.5

49.5

46.1

53.5

48.7

46.4

48.9

48.9

50.5

51.8

51.2

53.9

ManufacturingPMI,Index

Index

49.2(00-yy)

54.3

45.8

40.9

45.0

48.3

46.1

43.6

46.3

49.0

48.9

47.0

49.2

50.0

-Neworders,Index

Index

49.2(00-yy)

55.1

41.7

33.3

42.0

47.8

41.9

41.6

43.4

48.1

47.8

46.9

49.2

50.9

-Newexportorders,Index

Index

49.5(00-yy)

54.4

46.5

38.7

43.8

51.3

47.3

41.7

48.3

50.6

49.1

50.5

49.5

49.0

-Orders-inventoryRatio

Index

1.2(00-yy)

1.12

0.83

0.74

0.88

1.20

0.83

0.91

0.96

1.12

1.20

0.99

1.18

1.13

Capacityutilisation(manufacturing)

%

88.4(00-yy)

88.6

90.5

90.5

90.5

89.7

89.7

89.7

88.4

88.4

88.4

Consumerconfidence

Index

88.9(00-yy)

100.2

69.9

73.3

74.6

74.6

72.2

71.2

72.4

74.4

75.3

83.0

83.1

87.6

Householdeconomicsituationexpectations

Householdunemploymentexpectations

Index

Index

16.0(00-yy)47.0(00-yy)

-12.5

22.1

-27.064.0

-16.048.0

-14.044.0

-19.044.0

-30.048.0

-30.056.0

-29.062.0

-27.064.0

-13.061.0

5.057.0

9.054.0

11.052.0

LabourmarketandWages

Unemploymentrate

%

8.3(00-yy)

7.4

7.4

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.8

7.9

8.0

8.1

8.1

8.2

8.3

8.3

Employment

%y/y

-0.3(00-yy)

0.9

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.3

1.1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.4

Shorttermwagestats:Earnings(y/y%)

Shorttermwagestats:CentralAgreements(y/y%)

%y/y

%y/y

4.0(00-yy)4.1(00-yy)

3.0

2.5

3.53.3

4.03.8

3.93.8

4.03.9

4.13.9

4.23.9

4.14.0

4.24.0

4.24.0

4.24.1

4.04.1

Inflation

CPIF

%y/y

2.5(00-yy)

2.0

7.6

6.7

6.4

6.4

4.7

4.0

4.2

3.6

2.3

3.3

2.5

2.2

CPIFexenergy

Houseprices

%y/y

%y/y

3.5(00-yy)1.7(00-yy)

1.8

5.0

8.4-10.4

8.2-8.3

8.1-11.8

8.0-14.4

7.2-9.7

6.9-10.3

6.1-4.0

5.4-3.2

5.3-1.9

4.44.5

3.51.7

2.91.1

MonetaryDynamics

M3,y/y

M1,y/y

%y/y

%y/y

-2.0(00-yy)-9.7(00-yy)

6.5

7.1

-3.2-10.2

-4.0-11.6

-4.9-12.9

-4.4-12.7

-5.8-13.8

-5.1-12.7

-5.1-12.8

-4.4-12.0

-2.3-9.4

-2.6-10.4

-2.0-9.7

-0.1-7.6

FX

EURSEK(ahighervalueisaweakerexchangerate)

FXrate

11.3(00-yy)

9.58

11.34

11.37

11.67

11.63

11.81

11.85

11.64

11.55

11.20

11.28

11.25

11.31

EURSEK,m/m

%m/m

-0.3(00-yy)

0.08

1.07

0.33

2.59

-0.28

1.48

0.33

-1.72

-0.76

-3.04

0.72

-0.30

0.49

EURSEK,y/y

%y/y

0.6(00-yy)

1.25

9.78

8.40

10.10

9.96

12.39

9.87

6.35

6.22

2.02

0.82

0.62

0.80

KIXIndex(ahighervalueisaweakerexchangerate)

Index

124.5(00-yy)

114.39

126.06

126.58

129.63

128.50

130.40

131.18

129.08

127.57

123.99

124.75

124.54

124.69

KIXIndex,m/m

KIXIndex,y/y

%m/m%y/y

-0.2(00-yy)-0.8(00-yy)

0.04

0.62

0.406.67

0.415.81

2.417.69

-0.876.05

1.487.93

0.606.19

-1.603.42

-1.183.50

-2.800.34

0.61-0.77

-0.16-0.75

0.12-0.69

CommodityPrices

BrentOilPrices,USD

$/bbl

83.5(00-yy)

64.5

84.6

75.5

74.8

80.1

86.2

93.7

90.6

82.9

77.6

80.1

83.5

85.4

BrentOilPrices,USD

%y/y

1.1(00-yy)

15.4

-19.1

-33.4

-39.0

-28.4

-14.2

4.4

-2.9

-9.3

-4.1

-2.9

1.1

8.9

Non-oilCommodityprices

FoodPrices

%y/y

%y/y

-9.0(00-yy)-10.5(00-yy)

5.1

3.9

-14.4-19.1

-14.7-21.5

-9.8-21.0

1.8-12.2

-3.6-12.2

-3.0-11.3

-4.3-11.6

-5.3-11.3

-7.3-10.5

-9.6-10.2

-9.0-10.5

-4.3

Creditconditions

Loanstohouseholdsforconsumption,m/m

%m/m

-0.4(00-yy)

0.5

1.0

0.3

0.3

0.4

-0.1

0.2

0.0

0.6

-0.9

4.5

-0.4

1.2

Loanstohouseholdsforconsumption,y/y

%y/y

2.5(00-yy)

6.2

0.9

0.8

0.4

0.6

1.3

1.7

1.8

1.8

2.5

2.5

2.5

4.1

Mortgages,m/m

%m/m

0.0(00-yy)

0.7

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

Mortgages,y/y

%y/y

0.4(00-yy)

7.4

2.4

2.0

1.6

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

CredittoPNFCs,m/m

%m/m

-0.3(00-yy)

0.4

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.1

0.2

-0.5

-0.3

-0.7

-1.2

0.0

-0.3

0.4

CredittoPNFCs,y/y

%y/y

-1.4(00-yy)

4.9

8.8

7.8

8.0

7.0

5.1

3.9

2.8

1.4

0.3

-1.1

-1.4

-1.0

DebtsecuritiesissuedbyPNFCs,change

SEKbn

-9.6(00-yy)

5.9

-3.0

14.0

-26.6

0.5

3.1

-0.1

-15.4

-1.5

8.1

-6.4

-9.6

-35.1

DebtsecuritiesissuedbyMFIs,change

SEKbn

77.5(00-yy)

8.9

37.4

86.4

4.1

20.8

41.0

-47.8

32.6

-69.1

-145.6

175.4

77.5

26.7

Interestrateloansforconsumption

%

9.6(00-yy)

6.44

9.0

9.0

8.8

9.0

8.7

9.2

9.0

8.9

9.9

9.4

9.6

9.4

Interestratemortgages

%

4.8(00-yy)

2.83

4.3

4.5

4.5

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.9

5.0

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.8

InterestratePNFCs

SwedishKroneAggregate:CorporateIndex

%

Index

5.6(00-yy)205.6(00-yy)

2.68

170.7

4.9195.5

5.1196.9

5.2196.1

5.4195.5

5.5196.1

5.6196.8

5.6197.7

5.6200.4

5.6205.4

5.7206.1

5.6205.6

5.6

FinancialMarkets

GSFinancialconditionsindex

Index

97.4(00-yy)

99.3

97.4

97.4

97.0

97.1

96.9

96.9

97.4

97.4

97.5

97.3

97.4

OMXStockholm30Index

Index

2517.3(00-yy)

1269

2233

2244

2282

2253

2188

2177

2131

2149

2327

2344

2378

2497

OMXStockholm30Index,m/m

%m/m

0.8(00-yy)

0.5

2.6

0.5

1.7

-1.3

-2.9

-0.5

-2.1

0.8

8.3

0.7

1.5

5.0

OMXStockholm30Index,y/y

10yearbondYield

%y/y

%

12.8(00-yy)2.5(00-yy)

7.6

1.70

6.32.66

12.42.23

15.42.31

16.22.27

8.72.52

15.42.51

12.22.72

4.52.93

11.62.95

7.52.61

6.32.03

14.72.19

-2sd

-1.5sd

-1sd

-15sd

-2sd

-1.5sd

-0.5sd

-0.5sd

+0.5sd

-1sd

+0.5sd

+1sd

+1sd

+1.5sd

+2sd

+1.5sd

+2sd

+15sd

Source:Haver,Bloomberg,UBS.Copyright?2024,UBS,S&PGlobalTM.Allrightsreserved.Toseetheshadinginthecolourcodeclearly,pleaseadjustprintersettingstohigh-qualityprinting.

EuropeanEconomicPerspectives8May2024ab6

ValuationMethodandRiskStatement

Risksincludemacroeconomicvariables(suchasGDPgrowthratesandinflation),economic

slowdown,aweakeningcurrency,globaleconomicevents,andgovernmentpolicychanges.

EuropeanEconomicPerspectives8May2024ab7

RequiredDisclosures

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EuropeanEconomicPerspectives8May2024ab8

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