UBS-美國市場策略深度0725

ab

GlobalResearchandEvidenceLab

25July2024

USEquityStrategy

July2024

EquityStrategy

Americas

JonathanGolub

Strategist

jonathan.golub@+1-212-7138673

PatrickPalfrey

Strategist

patrick.palfrey@+1-212-713-2000

WillJackson

AssociateStrategistwill.jackson@+1-212-713-2000

NicholasSamoyedny

AssociateStrategist

nicholas.samoyedny@+1-212-7132272

ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesLLC.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURES,includinginformationontheQuantitativeResearchReviewpublishedbyUBS,beginonpage20.UBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab2

MarketLeadership

%7.0

1.3

1.2

-3.6

-8.0

-10.0

R2000S&P500S&P500S&P500NASDAQBig6

ex-Big6Eq-Wt100TECH+

TotalReturn:YTDto7/10

%

45.6

23.4

19.0

9.5

6.0

2.0

Big6

NASDAQS&P500

S&P500

S&P500R2000

TECH+

100

ex-Big6

Eq-Wt

Source:Standard&Poor's,FactSet,UBS

Note:Factorsrepresentrelativereturnsandincludedividend

TotalReturn:7/10toPresent

Source:Standard&Poor’s,FactSet,UBS

Note:Factorsrepresentrelativereturnsandincludedividend

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab3

EconomicBackdrop-Growth

ForecastedConsensus2024RealGDP

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

%

20-YrAvg:1.9%

●

2.3

0.6

Mar22Sep22Mar23Sep23Mar24

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

BloombergEconomicSurprise

0.5

0.3

0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.5

-0.7

Dec22Mar23Jun23Sep23Dec23Mar24Jun24

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab4

EconomicBackdrop-Inflation

CPIYoYwithConsensusForecasts

%

8.3

7.1

5.8

4.0

3.5

3.2

3.3

3.2

3.02.9

2.5

2.3

3Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q24E4Q24E1Q25E2Q25E

Source:BLS,Bloomberg,UBS

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab5

EconomicBackdrop-LaborandWages

UnemploymentRate

%

7

6

5

4.1

4

Jan23

3.4

3

Dec20Jun21Dec21Jun22Dec22Jun23Dec23Jun24

Source:BLS,Bloomberg,UBS

InitialJoblessClaims

'000

850

750

260

240

220

200

180

'000254

243

Dec22Jun23Dec23Jun24

650

550

450

350

250

243

150

Dec20Jun21Dec21Jun22Dec22Jun23Dec23Jun24

Source:BloombergUBS

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab6

InterestRates

10-YearTreasuryYields

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

Jun23

4.3

Sep23Dec23Mar24Jun24

Source:BLS,,Bloomberg,UBS

FuturesImpliedFedPolicyCuts-2024

6.7

6

5

4

3

2.6

2

1

Sep23Dec23Mar24Jun24

Source:BloombergUBS

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab7

InterestRates

%

8

6

4.3

4

2

0

10-YearYield

+1SD:5.5

Avg:3.8

-1SD:2.1

0.5

94969800020406081012141618202224

Source:FederalReserve,Haver,UBS

HighYieldSpreads

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

%

8.8

+1SD:7.1

Avg:4.9

-1SD:2.7

3.0

94969800020406081012141618202224

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab8

InterestRates

10-YearYield+HYSpread

24

22

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

%

+1SD:11.3

9.5

Avg:8.7

-1SD:6.2

94969800020406081012141618202224

7.3

Source:FederalReserve,Haver,Bloomberg,UBS

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab9

Volatility

VIX

35

30

25

20

15

10

+1SD:25.6

Avg:19.6

18.0

-1SD:13.6

Dec21Jun22Dec22Jun23Dec23Jun24

Source:CBOE,FactSet,UBS

ReturnBasedonStartingVIXLevel

9.5

%

3.5

3.3

0.1

Below1515to2020to30Above30

Source:Standard&Poor's,CBOE,Factset,UBS

Note:AverageForward3MonthReturn;data2017topresent

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab10

EPSGrowth

ConsensusS&P500NTMEPSDollars

280

275

270

265

260

255

250

245

240

$

$263

$279

Dec-23Feb-24Apr-24Jun-24Aug-24Oct-24Dec-24

Source:Standard&Poor's,FactSet,Refinitiv,UBS

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab11

EPSGrowth

S&P500EPSGrowth

%S&P500S&P500

Big6TECH+RestofTECH+ex-TECH+S&P500EqWt

68.2

32.9

19.4

19.2

10.1

8.5

10.2

1.8

13.2

10.5

7.5

7.5

8.4

5.4

-0.2

4Q232Q244Q244Q232Q244Q244Q232Q244Q244Q232Q244Q244Q232Q244Q24

Source:Standard&Poor's,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab12

EPSGrowth

2Q24S&P500EPSGrowth

%32.9

10.110.0

7.5

5.1

2.7

1.4

0.1

-1.7

-2.8

-4.4

-8.4

Big6TECH+Restof

TECH+

FinsS&P500UtilsS&P500

ex-Big6

Disc

ex-AMZN

H.C.EneIndTelcosMats

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Note:AMZNincludedinTECH+,notDiscretionary

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab13

EPSGrowth

Top15Contributorsto2Q24EPSGrowth

Ticker

Company

SuperSector

Weight(%)

EPS

Growth(%)

ContributiontoEPSGrowth(%)

NVDA

NVIDIA

TECH+

1.4

135.3

1.9

GOOGL

Alphabet

TECH+

3.4

31.3

1.1

META

MetaPlatforms

TECH+

1.4

58.5

0.8

AMZN

A

TECH+

1.3

57.1

0.7

MU

MicronTechnology

TECH+

0.3

143.4

0.5

MSFT

Microsoft

TECH+

4.3

9.0

0.4

PGR

Progressive

Financials

0.1

562.5

0.3

GM

GeneralMotors

Industrials&Disc

0.5

60.2

0.3

ALL

Allstate

Financials

0.3

108.3

0.3

AAPL

Apple

TECH+

3.9

6.2

0.2

WDC

WesternDigital

TECH+

0.1

159.1

0.2

MS

MorganStanley

Financials

0.3

46.8

0.2

NFLX

Netflix

TECH+

0.3

48.3

0.1

WBD

WarnerBros.Discovery

TECH+

0.2

59.3

0.1

AVGO

Broadcom

TECH+

1.0

14.0

0.1

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab14

EPSGrowth

2Q24EPSGrowth

EPS

Median

S&P500

Weighted

7.55.4

TECH+

24.3

6.6

Cyclicals

-2.0

5.6

Energy

-1.7

7.3

Materials

-8.4

3.9

Industrials

-2.8

6.5

Discretionaryex-AMZN

1.4

4.3

Non-Cyclicals

0.2

3.0

Staples

1.6

1.3

HealthCare

0.1

5.2

Utilities

5.1

8.5

REITs

-4.9

1.9

Telcos

-4.4

NA

Financials

10.0

10.1

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Note:AMZNisincludedinTECH+,notCyclicals/Discretionary

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab15

EPSRevisions

Consensus2Q24EPSRevisions

Name

%Changein2Q24EPS

ContributiontoS&P500(%)

Alphabet

11.4

0.2

Nvidia

8.6

0.3

Amazon

8.2

0.1

Microsoft

1.7

0.1

Apple

0.8

0.0

Meta

-0.6

4.9

0.0

0.9

Top6TECH+

RestofTECH+

-1.22.7

-0.10.8

TECH+

S&P500ex-TECH+

-1.8-0.4

-1.2-0.4

S&P500

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Note:Changein2QEstimatessince3/31

ConsensusS&P500EPSRevisions

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

%

3.8

2.2

▽

-0.4

▽1Q24

-2.8

HistoricalTrend▲

2Q24(withhistoricalrevisionsprojected)

-0.2

-64-48-32-16016324864

DaysPriorQuarterEndDaysAfter

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Note:Historicaltrendbasedonestimatesfrom1Q11-4Q19

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab16

EarningsSurprise

S&P500EarningsSurprise

%

Avg:4.8%

23.2

19.4

15.5

21.4

15.5

9.7

5.5

6.7

7.6

6.5

4.6

7.46.97.2

4.5

5.2

4.6

4.3

2.9

2.7

1.3

2Q194Q19

2Q20

4Q20

2Q21

4Q21

2Q224Q22

2Q23

4Q23

2Q24

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Note:Beat/Miss+/-1%

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab17

Valuations

S&P500NTMP/E

25

20

15

10

+1SD:20.0

Avg:16.8

-1SD:13.6

20.8

x

9799010305070911131517192123

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

P/EExpansionthruBusinessCycles

x

EarlyCycle(Year1)

2.7

Mid-Cycle(Annualized)

0.8

LateCycle(FinalYear)

1.2

RecessionaryFall(Cumulative)

-5.7

Source:Standard&Poor’s,FactSet,UBS

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab18

Valuations

S&P500P/FCF

50

x

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

+1SD:31.5

26.7

Avg:22.5

-1SD:13.5

970207121722

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

P/ROC(Dividends+Buybacks)

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

x

+1SD:46.3

Avg:32.4

-1SD:18.6

970207121722

36.4

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab19

ValuationMethodandRiskStatement

Equitymarketreturnsareinfluencedbycorporateearnings,interestrates,riskpremia,aswellasothervariablesinfluencedbythebusinesscycle.Theoutlookforanyandallofthesevariablesissubjecttochange.

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab20

RequiredDisclosures

ThisdocumenthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesLLC,anaffiliateofUBSAG.UBSAG,itssubsidiaries,branchesandaffiliates,includingCreditSuisseAGanditssubsidiaries,branchesandaffiliatesarereferredtohereinas"UBS".

ForinformationonthewaysinwhichUBSmanagesconflictsandmaintainsindependenceofitsUBSGlobalResearchproduct;historicalperformanceinformation;certainadditionaldisclosuresconcerningUBSGlobalResearchrecommendations;andtermsandconditionsforcertainthirdpartydatausedinresearchreport,pleasevisit

/disclosures

.Unlessotherwiseindicated,informationanddatainthisreportarebasedoncompanydisclosuresincludingbutnotlimitedtoannual,interim,quarterlyreportsandothercompanyannouncements.Thefigurescontainedinperformancechartsrefertothepast;pastperformanceisnotareliableindicatoroffutureresults.Additionalinformationwillbemadeavailableuponrequest.UBSSecuritiesCo.LimitedislicensedtoconductsecuritiesinvestmentconsultancybusinessesbytheChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommission.UBSactsormayactasprincipalinthedebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)thatmaybethesubjectofthisreport.Thisrecommendationwasfinalizedon:25July202406:46AMGMT.UBShasdesignatedcertainUBSGlobalResearchdepartmentmembersasDerivativesResearchAnalystswherethosedepartmentmemberspublishresearchprincipallyontheanalysisofthepriceormarketforaderivative,andprovideinformationreasonablysufficientuponwhichtobaseadecisiontoenterintoaderivativestransaction.WhereDerivativesResearchAnalystsco-authorresearchreportswithEquityResearchAnalystsorEconomists,theDerivativesResearchAnalystisresponsibleforthederivativesinvestmentviews,forecasts,and/orrecommendations.QuantitativeResearchReview:UBSGlobalResearchpublishesaquantitativeassessmentofitsanalysts'responsestocertainquestionsaboutthelikelihoodofanoccurrenceofanumberofshorttermfactorsinaproductknownasthe'QuantitativeResearchReview'.Viewscontainedinthisassessmentonaparticularstockreflectonlytheviewsonthoseshorttermfactorswhichareadifferenttimeframetothe12-monthtimeframereflectedinanyequityratingsetoutinthisnote.Forthelatestresponses,pleaseseetheQuantitativeResearchReviewAddendumatthebackofthisreport,whereapplicable.Forpreviousresponsespleasemakereferenceto(i)previousUBSGlobalResearchreports;and(ii)wherenoapplicableresearchreportwaspublishedthatmonth,theQuantitativeResearchReviewwhichcanbefoundat

/quantitative

,orcontactyourUBSsalesrepresentativeforaccesstothereportortheQuantitativeResearchTeamonqa@.AconsolidatedreportwhichcontainsallresponsesisalsoavailableandagainyoushouldcontactyourUBSsalesrepresentativefordetailsandpricingortheQuantitativeResearchteamontheemailabove.

AnalystCertification:

Eachresearchanalystprimarilyresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreport,inwholeorinpart,certifiesthatwithrespecttoeachsecurityorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport:(1)alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthosesecuritiesorissuersandwerepreparedinanindependentmanner,includingwithrespecttoUBS,and(2)nopartofhisorhercompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedbythatresearchanalystintheresearchreport.

UBSGlobalResearch:GlobalEquityRatingDefinitions

12-MonthRating

Definition

Coverage1

IBServices2

Buy

FSRis>6%abovetheMRA.

52%

25%

Neutral

FSRisbetween-6%and6%oftheMRA.

40%

22%

Sell

FSRis>6%belowtheMRA.

8%

21%

Short-TermRating

Definition

Coverage3

IBServices4

Buy

Stockpriceexpectedtorisewithinthreemonthsfromthetimetheratingwasassignedbecauseofaspecificcatalystorevent.

<1%

<1%

Sell

Stockpriceexpectedtofallwithinthreemonthsfromthetimetheratingwasassignedbecauseofaspecificcatalystorevent.

<1%

<1%

Source:UBS.Ratingallocationsareasof30June2024.

1:Percentageofcompaniesundercoveragegloballywithinthe12-monthratingcategory.

2:Percentageofcompanieswithinthe12-monthratingcategoryforwhichinvestmentbanking(IB)serviceswereprovidedwithinthepast12months.

3:PercentageofcompaniesundercoveragegloballywithintheShort-Termratingcategory.

4:PercentageofcompanieswithintheShort-Termratingcategoryforwhichinvestmentbanking(IB)serviceswereprovidedwithinthepast12months.

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab21

KEYDEFINITIONS:ForecastStockReturn(FSR)isdefinedasexpectedpercentagepriceappreciationplusgrossdividendyieldoverthenext12months.Insomecases,thisyieldmaybebasedonaccrueddividends.MarketReturnAssumption(MRA)isdefinedastheone-yearlocalmarketinterestrateplus5%(aproxyfor,andnotaforecastof,theequityriskpremium).UnderReview(UR)StocksmaybeflaggedasURbytheanalyst,indicatingthatthestock'spricetargetand/orratingaresubjecttopossiblechangeinthenearterm,usuallyinresponsetoaneventthatmayaffecttheinvestmentcaseorvaluation.Short-TermRatingsreflecttheexpectednear-term(uptothreemonths)performanceofthestockanddonotreflectanychangeinthefundamentalvieworinvestmentcase.EquityPriceTargetshaveaninvestmenthorizonof12months.

EXCEPTIONSANDSPECIALCASES:UKandEuropeanInvestmentFundratingsanddefinitionsare:Buy:Positiveonfactorssuchasstructure,management,performancerecord,discount;Neutral:Neutralonfactorssuchasstructure,management,performancerecord,discount;Sell:Negativeonfactorssuchasstructure,management,performancerecord,discount.CoreBandingExceptions(CBE):Exceptionstothestandard+/-6%bandsmaybegrantedbytheInvestmentReviewCommittee(IRC).FactorsconsideredbytheIRCincludethestock'svolatilityandthecreditspreadoftherespectivecompany'sdebt.Asaresult,stocksdeemedtobeveryhighorlowriskmaybesubjecttohigherorlowerbandsastheyrelatetotherating.Whensuchexceptionsapply,theywillbeidentifiedintheCompanyDisclosurestableintherelevantresearchpiece.

Researchanalystscontributingtothisreportwhoareemployedbyanynon-USaffiliateofUBSSecuritiesLLCarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRA.SuchanalystsmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofUBSSecuritiesLLCandthereforearenotsubjecttotheFINRArestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearances,andtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.Thenameofeachaffiliateandanalystemployedbythataffiliatecontributingtothisreport,ifany,follows.

UBSSecuritiesLLC:JonathanGolub,NicholasSamoyedny,PatrickPalfrey,WillJackson.

Unlessotherwiseindicated,pleaserefertotheValuationandRisksectionswithinthebodyofthisreport.Foracompletesetofdisclosurestatementsassociatedwiththecompaniesdiscussedinthisreport,includinginformationonvaluationandrisk,pleasecontactUBSSecuritiesLLC,1285AvenueofAmericas,NewYork,NY10019,USA,Attention:InvestmentResearch.

USEquityStrategy25July2024ab22

UBSGlobalResearchDisclaimer

ThisdocumenthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesLLC,anaffiliateofUBSAG.UBSAG,itssubsidiaries,branchesandaffiliates,includingformerCreditSuisseAGanditssubsidiaries,branchesandaffiliatesarereferredtohereinas"UBS".

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