標(biāo)普2025年全球信用展望：希望與險境

S&PGlobal

GlobalCreditOutlook2025

PromiseAndPeril

Dec.4,2024

Thisreportdoesnotconstitutearatingaction.

GlobalCreditOutlook2025:PromiseAndPeril

Dec.4,2024

2

/ratings/outlook2025

Foreword

Dearreader,

Asweturnourgazetoward2025,weseeayearofpromiseandperil.Thedescentinpolicy

Acknowledgements

interestratesandsoftlandingsinmanymajoreconomiesmaydeliveronthepromiseofmore

favorablecreditconditions.Ontheotherhand,intensifyinggeopoliticalandtradetensionsincreasetheperilpresentinanalreadytumultuousenvironment.

Weappreciateourmany

colleagueswhohavecontributedtothisreportandprovidedyou

AstheRussia-Ukrainewarapproachestheendofitsthirdyear,therecentescalationintheconflictraisestheriskofabroaderimpactonmarketsandcredit.Likewise,thefightinginthe

withS&PGlobalRatings'essentialintelligence.

SpecialthankstoMollyMintz,

MiddleEaststillthreatenstodisrupttradeandinvestmentflowsandcouldincreasemarket

JoeMaguire,FatimaTomas,

volatility.AndPresident-electDonaldTrump’sreturntotheWhiteHousewillhaveramifications

TomLowenstein,NaziaHussain,

notjustfortheU.S.butacrosstheglobeintermsoftariffsandgeopolitics.

LynetteChoong,PaulWhitfield,RaeNudson,KathrinSchindler,

Atthesametime,theeasingofmonetarypolicywillcomeatanuncertainandunsynchronized

paceindifferentregions,withthedescentalmostsuretobeslowerthantherise.Ifcentralbanksareforcedtocurtailtheirinterest-ratecuts,thecostsofdebtserviceandrefinancingcould

KelliannDelegro,TimHellyer,andMichelleJames.

remainburdensomeforalldebtissuersandexistentialforthoseattheverylowendoftheratings

scale.

Inthiscontextofheighteneduncertainty,S&PGlobalRatings’GlobalCreditOutlook2025

presentsourcreditandmacroeconomicexpectationsfortheyearahead,includingourbase-caseforecasts,assumptions,andkeyrisks.Wealsoaddressthequestionsthatwillshapetheyear,withinsightsdrawnfromourongoingdialogueswithmarketparticipants.Wedelveintocriticaltopicssuchassovereigndebt,globaltrade,privatemarkets,andthegrowthofAIanddatacenters.

ThispublicationbuildsonthecollectiveinsightsfromourregionalandglobalCreditConditionsCommittees(CCCs),whichmeetquarterlytoreviewconditionsinAsia-Pacific,EmergingMarkets,Europe,andNorthAmerica,cascadingintoourglobalcoverage.AttheCCCs,weevaluatethe

trendsaffectingeconomies,industries,andcreditmarkets—toidentifyourbase-case

assumptionsandranktheexogenousrisksthatunderpinourcreditratingsandinformpotentialratingchangesacrossvariousassetclasses.

Atatimewhenkeythemesandrisksappeartobeincreasinglyinterconnected,weinviteyoutoexplorethedepthandbreadthofexpertiseofferedbyS&PGlobalRatings’analystsandexpertsaswescanthehorizonofwhatpromisestobeanothertumultuousyearforglobalmarkets.

AlexandreBirry

GlobalHeadofCreditResearchandInsights

Co-Chair,

GlobalCCC

Paris

alexandre.birry

@

GreggLemos-Stein

ChiefAnalyticalOfficer,CorporateRatings

Co-Chair,

GlobalCCC

NewYork

gregg.lemos-stein

@

AlexandraDimitrijevic

GlobalHeadofAnalytical

ResearchandDevelopment

Co-Chair,S&PGlobalResearchCouncil

London

alexandra.dimitrijevic

@

Dec.4,2024

3

/ratings/outlook2025

Contents

GlobalCreditOutlook2025:PromiseAndPeril4

TopGlobalRisks12

GlobalEconomicOutlook14

QuestionsThatMatter18

CreditHeadwinds

MonetaryEasing|WhatIfTheInterestRateDescentDisappoints?19

SovereignDebt|IsTheAusterityVersusGrowthDilemmaBack?22

CapitalFlows

PrivateMarkets|HowWillPrivateCreditRespondToDecliningYields?25

Corporates|CanMonetaryEasingBringEnoughReliefToJustifyCurrentMarketOptimism?28

GeopoliticalUncertainty

Geopolitics|HowWillMarketsNavigateOngoingGeopoliticalRisks?31

GlobalTrade|HowMightUncertainTradePoliciesAffectMacro-CreditConditionsIn2025?34

EnergyandClimateResilience

Commodities|CouldOilPricesShockTheGlobalEconomy?37

EnergyTransition|HowWillTheU.S.AndEuropeRespondToChina’sClean-TechLeadership?40

Cyber,Crypto,AndTechDisruption

DataCenters|CanInfrastructureDevelopmentsKeepUpWithTheIncreasingDemand?43

AI&DeFi|CanCryptoInnovationsOffsetArtificialIntelligenceConcentrationRisks?46

RegionalCreditConditions49

NorthAmerica50

Europe52

Asia-Pacific54

EmergingMarkets56

Contacts58

Disclaimer59

GlobalCreditOutlook2025:PromiseAndPeril

Dec.4,2024

4

/ratings/outlook2025

GlobalCreditOutlook2025

PromiseAndPeril

Thisreportdoesnotconstitutearatingaction.

Aseconomicsoftlandingsmaterializeinmanymajoreconomiesandpolicyinterestratesbegintheirdescent,globalcreditconditionslooksettoremainsupportivein2025—withthecaveatsthattherewillberegion-andcountry-specificdivergence,andabackdropofgeopolitical

uncertaintythatthreatenstoreigniterisk-aversionamonginvestorsandaffectcapitalflows.

Witheasinginflation,resilientlabormarkets,andsturdyconsumerspendingbolsteringeconomicactivityinmostdevelopedmarkets,weexpectsteadygrowthnextyear.Weforecastglobal

economicexpansionof3%in2025asgrowthslowsintheU.S.andChina(theworld’stwo

biggesteconomies),theeurozonecontinuestorecover,andemergingmarketsfindtheirfooting.

Atthesametime,centralbankshavestartedloweringtheirkeyinterestrates,andweexpect

moremonetary-policyeasingtocome,albeitatavariablepaceamongjurisdictions.More

importantly,thedescentwillbeslowerthantherise,withratescertaintosettleathigherlevelsthanwesawduringthelongstretchofcheapmoneyaftertheglobalfinancialcrisis.

slowerGDpgrowthin2025

Global

3.0%

U.S·2.0%

china4.1%

Eurozone1.2%

Federalfulndsrateforecast

2025average

3.9%

ECBrefirate(end-2025)2.65%

'B-'andbelow

corporatedebtoultstanding

Global

$1.3trillion

ROW

$89.8bil.

U.S·

$875.0bil.

Europe

$308.8bil.

Tradevullnerability

Importsandexportsasa%ofGDP

Netoultlookbias

AsofNov.15,2024

'Ccc'andbelow

-66.8%

china38.4%

ROW62.5%

U.S.27.0%

IG

-9.6%

'B-'andSGbelow

-17.6%-31.6%

U.S.Europe

8

8

7

76.00%

5.25%o

3.25%

48%

auue"

6/50%…

5432

4ir

2.3%

2.25%

Jan.oct.sept.Jan.oct.sept.

201920242025201920242025

Contacts

AlexandreBirry

Paris

alexandre.birry

@

GreggLemos-Stein

NewYork

gregg.lemos-stein

@

AlexandraDimitrijevic

London

alexandra.dimitrijevic

@

NickKraemer

NewYork

nick.kraemer

@

Contributors

JoeMaguire

NewYork

joe.maguire

@

MollyMintz

NewYork

molly.mintz

@

See:

"U.S.Speculative-GradeCorporateDefaultRateToFallFurtherTo3.25%BySeptember2025,

"publishedNov.15,2024,and

"EuropeanSpeculative-GradeDefaultRateShouldFallTo4.25%BySeptember2025,

"publishedNov.18,2024.

Sources:WorldBank,S&PGlobalRatings.

GlobalCreditOutlook2025:PromiseAndPeril

/ratings/outlook2025Dec.4,20245

Wealsoforecastadeclineindefaultsbut,again,ataslowerpacethantherise.Thelowest-

ratedborrowerscontinuetofacethestrainsofstill-elevatedborrowingcosts,thelingering

effectsofpermanentlyhigherpricesonconsumerpurchasingpower,andheightenedgeopoliticaluncertainty—mostnotably,increasingprotectionismthatwillweighonglobaltrade.S&PGlobal

RatingsexpectstheU.S.trailing-12-monthspeculative-gradecorporatedefaultratetofallto

3.25%bySeptember2025,from4.4%inSeptember2024andapeakof4.9%inApril.InEurope,weexpectaslowerpaceofimprovement,withadefaultrateof4.25%bySeptember2025,downfrom4.7%inSeptemberandapeakof4.8%inJuly.

Thedowngradepotentialforspeculative-gradeissuerscontinuestoslowlydecline,aswell.Thenegativebias(theproportionofissuerswithnegativeoutlooksoronCreditWatchwithnegativeimplications)hasfallenbelow18%forthefirsttimeinnearlytwoyears.Forinvestment-gradecompanies,thenegativebiasisbelow10%.

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

-35

-40

Globalnetoutlookbias:Financialandnonfinancialcorporates(%)

Oct2019

Oct2020

Oct2021

Oct2022

Oct2023

Oct2024

Netoutlookbias--ThedifferencebetweenratingswithapositiveoutlookoronCreditWatchwithpositiveimplications,andthosewithanegativeoutlookoronCreditWatchnegative.Source:S&PGlobalRatings.

Recoveryratesarelikelytobeunderpressurefromthemoreleveragedandtop-heavydebt

structuresthathavebecomecommoninthespeculative-gradeuniverse.Ourrecovery

expectations(whichestimatefuturerecoveryrates)onfirst-liendebthavedeclinedtothe60%-65%areainthepastsixyears,comparedtothelong-termaverageactualrecoveriesof75%-80%.Acombinationofincreasingtotalandfirst-liendebtleverage,shrinkingjuniordebtcushions,andthepredominanceofcovenant-liteloanstructureshaveweighedonactualrecoveries.From

2018-2022,recoveryratesonU.S.first-liendebtaveraged72%—whichwas10percentagepointslowerthanthepriorfive-yearperiod.

Asurgeinout-of-courtloanrestructurings,oftenreferredtoasliabilitymanagement

transactions(LMTs),inrecentyearsposesanotherthreattorecoveriesonsyndicatedfirst-liendebtintheU.S.Astheinvestorbaseforinstitutionalloanshasexpandedandbecomemore

diversified,syndicatedloandocumentshavebecomemorebond-likeandflexible.Asaresult,

mostnowprovidecompanieswithnumerousoptionstorestructuretheirbalancesheetsinwaysthatcandramaticallyreordertherelativeprioritiesofexistingfirst-lienlenders(andother

creditors).

Ofthe38loanLMTsby35companiesthatwe’vebeentrackingfrommid-2017throughAugust2024(withsomeundergoingmultipletransactions),13firmssubsequentlyfiledforbankruptcy(37%).Ofthe22thatavoidedbankruptcy,onlyfive(14%)stavedoffasubsequentdefaultorare

GlobalCreditOutlook2025:PromiseAndPeril

Dec.4,2024

6

/ratings/outlook2025

ratedhigherthan‘CCC+.’Becauseissuercreditratingsof‘CCC+’orlowerindicateour

expectationthataneventualdefaultismorelikelythannot,thismeansthatanothernearly50%ofthedatasethaseithersubsequentlydefaulted(outsideofbankruptcy)orisviewedasatriskofdoingso.

Companieshavemadegoodprogressinpushingoutmaturities.Morethanthree-quartersof

speculative-gradebondandleveragedloanissuancein2024hasbeenforrefinancingorrepricing(inthecaseofloans).AsofOct.1,therewasjust$144billionofspeculative-gradenonfinancial

corporatedebtmaturingin2025,34%ofwhichwerate‘B-’andlower.Thishaseasednear-termliquiditypressureonmanylower-ratedborrowers,buyingthemtimeifmarketvolatilityarises

and/orinvestorsbecomemorerisk-averse.

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

Speculative-gradenonfinancialcorporatematuritiesriseinupcomingyears(bil.$)

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2024

(Maturityyear)

U.S.accountsformostoftheupcoming'B-'andlowermaturities(bil.$)

U.S.

Europe

Restofworld

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

202420252026202720282029

(Maturityyear)

DataasofOct.01,2024.Includesnonfinancialcorporateissuers'bonds,loans,andrevolvingcreditfacilitiesthatarerated'BB+'orlowerbyS&PGlobalRatings.ForeigncurrenciesareconvertedtoU.S.dollarsattheexchangerateonOct.01,2024.Source:S&PGlobalRatingsCreditResearch&Insights.

Fromacorporate-earningsperspective,growthissteadilyimproving,althoughitcontinuesto

comeprimarilyfromimprovedprofitmarginsratherthanincreasedrevenues.Inthethirdquarter,annualizedEBITDAforcompaniesweraterose3.6%—and8.1%excludingcommodities-linked

sectors.Globalrevenuesincreased0.9%and2.2%,respectively.Moreover,interest-rate

pressurescontinuetoease.Cashinterestpaymentswereup12.3%onanannualbasis,comparedwith15%inthesecondquarterandapeakof25%ayearearlier.

Banks’stableoutlooktrendsshouldpersistin2025

AAAAA ABBB BBB

Lower

Stableoutlook

80%

0%

40%

20%

60%

Stable

WatchPos.

Negative

Positive

WatchNeg.

NorthAmerica LatinAmerica EuropeEmergingEMEAAsia-Pacific

0%

20%

60%

80%

40%

100%

DataasofOct.31,2024.

Source:S&PGlobalRatings.

GlobalCreditOutlook2025:PromiseAndPeril

Dec.4,2024

7

/ratings/outlook2025

Meanwhile,about80%ofbankinggroupswerategloballyhavestableratingsoutlooks,andweseethistrendcontinuing.Weforecastglobalcreditlosseswillincreaseabout7%,to$850billion,in2025—withinourbasecaseatcurrentratinglevelsformostbanks.

Weseefourkeydownsideriskstobankratings:aglobaleconomicslowdownoutsideourbasecase;aworse-than-expectedpropertysectordeterioration;still-highinterestrates

superimposeduponhighgovernmentandcorporateleverage;andevolvingrisksincludingnewtechnologies,climatechange,andcyberthatcouldwidencreditdifferentiation.

Atthesametime,privatefundingispushingintonewpartsofthecreditmarketsafteryearsofrapidexpansion.Byprovidingmultipletypesofcredit,arranging,andoriginating,alternative

assetmanagersarefillingrolestraditionallyoperatedbybanks—andincaseswheremoredebtisoriginatedthancanbeplacedwithinthelendingplatform,somearebroadeningthedistributionsoftheiroriginationstooutsideinvestors.Andnewopportunitiesforprivatefundinginasset-

basedfinanceandprojectfinanceoffermuchlargerinvestmentopportunitiesandthepotentialforhigherratesofreturn.However,thiscomeswithrisks—especiallyconsideringthatprojectfinanceandasset-basedfinancearehighlyilliquidandcomplexinvestments,andthelackof

systemictransparencyinprivatemarketscompoundstheserisks.

Moregenerally,S&PGlobalRatings’CreditCycleIndicator(CCI)issignalingapotentialcreditrecoveryin2025.Thisforward-lookingmeasureofcreditconditionsisshowingpositive

momentum—aresultofthecontinuedriseinthecorporatesub-indicatordespitesomeoffsetbythehouseholdsub-indicator.Thecorporatesectorisseeingrecoveringearningsandsupportivefinancingconditionsasinterestratesbegintheirdescent.However,householdscontinueto

deleverageamidcautionovereconomicslowdownsandsqueezedpurchasingpower.

WeseeanincreasingdivergenceamongourregionalCCIs,spellingdifferentpacestowardacreditrecovery.Theeurozoneandemergingmarkets(ex-China)CCIscontinuetorisefromatrough,whileanearlierreboundintheNorthAmericaandsomeAsiaCCIsisstalling.InChina’scase,thecountry’sCCIcontinuestofall,pointingtoacontinuingcreditcorrection.

Globalcreditcycleindicator

4

3

(Standarddeviations)

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

CCI

Householdsub-indicator

Corporatesub-indicator

PeaksintheCCItendtoleadcreditstressesbysixto10quarters.WhentheCCI’supwardtrendisprolongedortheCCInearsupperthresholds,theassociatecreditstresstendstobegreater.SovereignriskisnotincludedasaformalpartoftheCCI.TheCCIperiodendsinthefirstquarterof2024.Sources:BankforInternationalSettlements,Bloomberg,S&PGlobalRatings.

Alltold,anyimprovementinglobalcreditconditionswillbealonganarrowpathstrewnwithoverlappingrisks.Slowingeconomicactivity,theprospectofresurgentinflation,andpoliticalpolarizationcouldleadtosustainedboutsofmarketvolatility.

GlobalCreditOutlook2025:PromiseAndPeril

Dec.4,2024

8

/ratings/outlook2025

GeopoliticsTakeCenterStage

Deepeninggeopoliticalriftsposethebiggestrisktoanimprovingcreditlandscape.The

Russia-Ukrainewarisapproachingtheendofitsthirdyear,andtheconflictintheMiddleEast,alongwithdomesticpolarizationincertainmarkets,coulddisrupttradeandinvestmentflows,roilfinancialmarkets,andforcegovernmentstoincreasedefensespendingamidalready-

stretchedbudgets.

DonaldTrump’sreturntotheWhiteHousewillhavewide-rangingramifications—withahighlevelofuncertaintyattachedtohissecondterm.

Onthetradefront,thepresident-electhassuggesteduniversaltariffsonallgoodsimportedtotheU.S.aswellassharplyhigherleviesonallChinesegoods.Hemorerecentlyvowedtoenact25%across-the-boardtariffsonneighboringCanadaandMexicounlessthosecountriesstemimmigrationtotheU.S.andflowsofdrugs,suchasfentanyl,acrosstheborder.S&PGlobal

Ratingsbelievesthatundersuchscenarios,theeffectswouldbeinflationaryintheshortterm—withcompaniesfacinghigherinputcostsandconsumerspayingmoreforfinishedgoods;adragonU.S.GDPinthemediumterm,whileunderpinningstill-highbenchmarkinterestrates;andanaccelerationinthediversificationofsupplychains,inparticularawayfromChina.

Thepresident-electhasalsovowedtowithdrawmilitaryfundingforUkraine,whichwilladdtothepressuresEuropeangovernmentsfaceinsupportingthecountry.Andhowheapproachesthe

Israel-Hamaswar,nowinitssecondyear,remainstobeseen.Anyadditionalescalationofthefightingcouldfurtherdisruptsupplychainsandresultinanenergy-priceshockthatunderpinsinflation.

Afteralongstretchoflarge,expansionaryfiscalstimulusaroundtheworld—andtheassociatedriseingovernments'debtleverage—policymakerswillatsomepointhavetounwindatleast

someofthissupport.Thisisespeciallytrueifthedescentininterestratesisslow,andthecostofservicingdebtremainselevatedforlongerthanexpected.Scalingbackcouldprovedifficultinanenvironmentofincreasedgeopoliticaltension—particularlyinEuropeandtheMiddleEast,wheregovernmentsmayneedtorampupdefensespending.Eitherway,reducedstimuluswilllikely

weighondemandanddenteconomicactivity.

ForTheU.S.,UncertaintyPrevails

PoliciesthatresultinhigherinputpriceswillpressureprofitsforU.S.corporates.IndustrieswithhighlyengineeredproductsdependentonChinaforspecializedmanufacturingwilllikelysuffermostbecausethesefacilitiesarethemostexpensivetorelocateandhardesttostaff.This

includessuchproductsassemiconductorsandelectricalcomponentssuppliedtotechnologycompaniesandappliestoutilitiesandpowersectorsfocusedonrenewableenergy.

While,onbalance,theeffectoftariffswouldbenegative,somesectorsintheU.S.couldbenefitfromamoreprotectioniststance.Metalsandminingcompaniestendtobehigheronthecostcurve,andtariffscouldgosomewaytolevelingtheplayingfieldincompetingagainstimports.Chemicalsmanufacturerscouldsimilarlybenefit,althoughtheymaybefacingcustomerswithheightenedpricesensitivitygivenrecentquartersofsofteningdemand.

Variousprovisionsofthe2017TaxCutsandJobsAct(TCJA)aresettophaseoutin2025.Atleastsomelegislativeactionislikely,withinterestdeductibility,bonusdepreciation,anddeductions

forresearchanddevelopmentallupfordebateandpotentiallymadepermanent.

TheTCJAloweredthecorporatetaxrateto21%,from35%,andRepublicanleadershave

suggestedfurtherloweringtherateto15%forU.S.companiesthatmaketheirproductsinthe

U.S.Naturally,alowercorporatetaxrate,whereapplicable,wouldbenefitfunds-from-operationsmetricsandboostcashavailabletoservicedebt.

President-elect

Trumphassuggesteduniversaltariffson

allgoodsimportedtotheU.S.

GlobalCreditOutlook2025:PromiseAndPeril

Dec.4,2024

9

/ratings/outlook2025

KeycreditissuestowatchunderTrump2.0

NonfinancialCorporates:Futurepoliciesontariffsandtaxeswilllikelymattermostforcredit.

FinancialInstitutions:Materialchangestoprudentialbankregulationareunlikely,butthesupervisoryapproachcouldvary.

PublicFinance:Therecouldbepressureaheadforthetax-exemptstatusofmunicipalbonds—thesector’skeyfoundation.

Insurance:Weexpectthebiggestpotentialeffectswillbeinhealthinsurance—althoughanychangeswilllikelybeatthemargins.

StructuredFinance:Theelections’impactislikelyconfinedtocertainproductsrelatedtocommercialcredit(e.g.,CLOsandtransportationassets),andconsumercreditABS.

S

Fromamacroeconomicperspective,forecastingisachallengeamidsignificantuncertainty

aboutthetiming,magnitude,andeffectofproposedtariffs,immigrationreforms,taxcuts,andregulatoryshifts.Thatsaid,webelievethenewadministration’sproposedeconomicplans,taken

atfacevalue,wouldaddtoinflationanddentGDPgrowthrelativetoourbaseline—withbenchmarkinterestrateslikelyhigherthaninourcurrentforecast.

Ataminimum,weexpectbilateraltradeflowsbetweentheU.S.andChinatobefurtherstrained.Ontopofthat,Europehasaddedtrade-protectionmeasurestocounterstatesubsidiesto

strategicindustriesinChina.IfadiversificationofglobalsupplychainsawayfromChinaisthe

result,thiswouldhaveaglobalimpact,withas-yet-unknownwinnersandlosers,thepotentialforincreasedcomplexitiesinsupplychains,andcouldreigniteinflationarypressureincertain

markets.

Allofthiscouldthrowcentralbanks’monetary-policyplansintodisarrayanddisruptcapital

flows.Inparticular,anycurtailingoftheU.S.FederalReserve’srate-cuttingcyclewilllimitcentralbanksinemergingmarkets(EMs)toalsopursuemonetarypolicy.Additionally,ifthesecond

TrumpAdministration’spoliciesworktosignificantlystrengthenthedollar,thiswilltranslateintodomesticinflationforEMs,giventheeffectonweakercurrencies,andwillmakedebt-service

moreexpensive,inviewofthepreponderanceofdollar-denominateddebt.

EmergingMarketsPrepareForAStarringRole

ThematuritywallforEMspeaksin2025,with$80.5billioninrateddebtcomingdue—althoughthebulkofit($65billion)isinvestment-gradeandconcentratedinChinaandMexico.Through2026,81%ofratedmaturitiesinEMsaredenominatedinU.S.dollars.

DespitethehurdlesEMsface,S&PGlobalRatingsbelievesthesemarketswillhavemoreofa

handinshapingtheglobaleconomyinthedecadetocomeassupportivedemographicsand

technologicaldevelopmentsboostproductivityand,consequently,economicactivity.Infact,weestimateEMscouldcontributeabout65%ofglobalGDPgrowthby2035andaveragean

economicexpansionof4.1%overthatperiod(comparedwithjust1.6%foradvancedeconomies).

ThematuritywallforEMspeaksin2025,

with$80.5billioninrateddebtcomingdue.

GlobalCreditOutlook2025:PromiseAndPeril

Dec.4,2024

10

/ratings/outlook2025

Furthermore,theglobalenergytransitionandpotentialsupply-chainreconfigurationscould

presentopportunitiesfortheseeconomiestoleveragetheirabundantnaturalresources,ample

laborforces,andimprovingmanufacturingcapabilities.

Still,EMsfaceafast-shiftinggeopoliticalenvironm