金融學（第四版）課件：The International Financial System

TheInternationalFinancialSystem

2InternationalFinancialSystemTheinternationalfinancialsystemconsistsofthenumerousrules,customs,instruments,facilities,markets,andorganizationsthatenableinternationalpaymentstobemadeandfundstoflowacrossbordersinrecentyears,theinternationalfinancialsystemhasseentremendousgrowthdrivenbytechnologicalchanges,growthinworldtrade,andthebreakdownofbarrierstofinancialflows3InternationalFinancialSystemDevelopmentsintheinternationalfinancialsystemhavemadefinancialmarketsmoreefficientfundscanmoreeasilyflowaroundtheworldtowherevertheywillearnthehighestreturnasresourcesareallocatedmoreefficiently,countriesshouldexperiencegreatereconomicgrowthlivingstandardsshouldrise4InternationalFinancialSystemAmoreglobalizedenvironmentcanalsoentailcostsadisturbanceinonefinancialmarketoronecountrycanhaveimmediateeffectsonothercountriesandtheentireinternationalfinancialsystem5InternationalFinancialSystemTheinternationalfinancialsystemincludestheinternationalmoneymarkettradesshort-termclaimswithanoriginalmaturityofoneyearorlesstheinternationalcapitalmarkettradescapitalmarketinstrumentsincludingstocks,bonds,mutualfunds,andmortgagestheforeignexchangemarketsforeigncurrenciesareboughtandsold6InternationalFinancialSystemSinceWWII,theinternationalfinancialsystemhasoperatedundertwodistinctexchangerateregimesfrom1944to1973,majorindustrialcountriesmaintainedasystemoffixedexchangeratessince1973,exchangeratesareflexibletheyfluctuatedailyinresponsetochangesinsupplyanddemand7TheInternationalFinancialSystemfrom1944to1973ThemajoreconomiesoftheworldparticipatedinafixedexchangeratesystemtheU.S.dollarfunctionedastheofficialreservecurrencyothercountriesdefinedtheircurrenciesintermsoftheU.S.dollarothercountriesagreedtobuyorselldollarstomaintaintheagreed-uponexchangeratethedollarwasdefinedintermsofgoldoneounceofgold=$358TheInternationalFinancialSystemfrom1944to1973ThefixedexchangeratesystemwasestablishedbytheBrettonWoodsAccordof1944underBrettonWoods,ifthetradedeficitofacountryotherthantheU.S.increased,thatcountryeffectivelyincreasedthesupplyofitscurrencyininternationalmarketstomaintaintheagreed-uponexchangerate,thatcountry’scentralbankhadtopurchasetheexcesssupplyofitscurrencyusingdollars9TheInternationalFinancialSystemfrom1944to1973ThesegovernmenttransactionsinforeigncurrenciesweremeasuredintheOfficialReserveAccountofthebalanceofpaymentsbysupplyingdollarsanddemandingpounds,thecountrywouldrunasurplusinitsOfficialReserveAccountthatwouldjustequalthedeficitinitscurrentandcapitalaccountstheofficialgovernmenttransactioninforeignexchangebringsthebalanceofpaymentsintobalanceatthefixedexchangerate10TheInternationalFinancialSystemfrom1944to1973Underthesecircumstances,thecountrycouldcontinuetomaintainitsfixedrateonlysolongasithadorcouldacquiresufficientdollarstosupportthevalueofitscurrencyasneededifthecountryranapersistentdeficitinitscapitalandcurrentaccounts,itscentralbankwouldrunoutofdollarshavetodevalueitscurrencydecreasethevalueofitscurrency11TheInternationalFinancialSystemfrom1944to1973Analternativetodevaluingacurrencyistoruncontractionarypolicylowerpricesincreaseexportsanddecreaseimportsthevalueofthecurrencyshouldrise12TheInternationalFinancialSystemfrom1944to1973TheU.S.waseventuallyintheuniquepositionofbeingabletorunpersistentdeficitsonitscurrentandcapitalaccountsinitiallyafterWWII,theU.S.ransizabletradesurplusesfinancedbycapitaloutflowsundertheMarshallPlanforeigncentralbanksaccumulatedstockpilesofdollarscreatinga“dollarshortage”13TheInternationalFinancialSystemfrom1944to1973Onceforeigncentralbankshadacquiredsufficientreserves,theabilityoftheU.S.torunchronicdeficitsinthecurrentandcapitalaccountswaslimitedinthiscase,thedollarwouldbecomeovervaluedintermsofforeigncurrenciesunderBrettonWoods,theU.S.wouldlosegoldasunwanteddollarswerepresentedforconversion14TheInternationalFinancialSystemfrom1944to1973Inthiscase,thedollarwouldbecomeovervaluedintermsofforeigncurrenciesunderBrettonWoods,theU.S.wouldlosegoldasunwanteddollarswerepresentedforconversiontheU.S.wouldthenpressureforeigncentralbankstorevaluetheircurrencyincreasethevalueofitscurrency15TheInternationalFinancialSystemfrom1944to1973Aforeigncentralbankmaybehesitanttorevalueitscurrencyrevaluationcouldadverselyaffectthecountry’seconomyexportsmayfallandunemploymentmayrise16TheInternationalFinancialSystemfrom1944to1973Duringthe1960sand1970s,somecountries(includingtheU.S.)expandedtheireconomiesandtheirdomesticmoneysuppliesfasterthanothercountriestheU.S.experiencedinflationarypressuressomecentralbanksaccumulatedmoredollarsthantheywishedtoholdasreserveassetstheyaskedtheU.S.toconverttheseunwanteddollarsintogold17TheInternationalFinancialSystemfrom1944to1973In1971,theU.S.suspendedtheinternationalconversionofdollarsintogoldAtthesametime,thedollarwasdevaluedbysettingthevalueofanounceofgoldto$42In1973,mostcountriesabandonedfixedexchangeratesandthevalueofthedollarbegantofloatmadeofficialintheJamaicaAgreementof197418TheManagedFloatExchangeRateSystemsince1973Countriesnowparticipateinafloating(flexible)exchangeratesystemexchangerateschangecontinuouslyasmarketforceschange19TheManagedFloatExchangeRateSystemsince1973ThesupplyofdollarsreflectsU.S.demandforforeigngoods,services,andsecuritiesthequantityofdollarssuppliedisapositivefunctionoftheexchangerateThedemandfordollarsreflectstheforeigndemandforU.S.goods,services,andsecuritiesthequantityofdollarsdemandedisanegativefunctionoftheexchangerate20TheManagedFloatExchangeRateSystemsince1973MarketforcesarenottheonlyfactorthataffectsexchangeratescentralbanksmayinterveneintheforeignexchangemarketbybuyingandsellingcurrenciestoinfluenceexchangeratesThus,thecurrentinternationalfinancialsystemisbettercharacterizedasamanagedfloatexchangeratesystem21TheManagedFloatExchangeRateSystemsince1973Underthemanagedfloatexchangeratesystem,manysmallercountriespegthevalueoftheircurrenciestotheU.S.dollarorsomeothermajorcurrencyorabasketofcurrenciesthisreducestheriskthatthevalueofthecurrencywillfluctuateunpredictablyifthecountrycannotmaintainthisfixedrate,afinancialcrisiscanresult22TheForeignExchangeMarket23TheForeignExchangeMarket24ManagingExchangeRateRiskundertheManagedFloatUnderflexibleexchangerates,whenmarketparticipantsenterintocontractstoreceiveorsupplyanamountofforeigncurrencyonafuturedate,thereisanexchangerateriskthefuturespotexchangerateisunknowntheanticipatedprofitsofanexporter,importer,orinvestorcanbereduced25ManagingExchangeRateRiskundertheManagedFloatInrecentyears,internationalfinancialmarketshavedevelopedforeignexchangeforward,futures,options,andswapagreementstohedgeexchangerateriskeffectivelylockinanexchangerate26TheRoleoftheDollarunder

theManagedFloatUnderBrettonWoods,thedollarservedastheofficialreservecurrencyBecauseofitsrelativestability,thedollarcontinuestoserveasthemajorreservecurrencyThedollarisalsooftenusedasamediumofexchangeandaunitofaccountininternationalmarkets27TheRoleoftheDollarunder

theManagedFloatThedollaralsoactsasastoreofvalue50-60%ofallU.S.currencyandover70%of$100billsareheldabroadthedollarisdemandedasastoreofvaluebecauseofthepoliticalstabilityoftheU.S.andthedollar’sacceptanceovertime28TheRoleoftheDollarunder

theManagedFloatDespiteitsmanyroles,thedollarislessimportantinrelativetermstodaythanundertheBrettonWoodsAccordothercurrenciessuchastheeuro,theJapaneseyen,andtheBritishpoundarenowusedasinternationalreserves29TheRoleoftheDollarunder

theManagedFloatSeveralinternationalorganizationsaredevelopinguniquerolesintheinternationalfinancialsystemtheyfosterstabilityintheinternationalfinancialsystemsothatbenefitsfromtrade(ofgoods,services,andsecurities)canberealized30MajorInternationalFinancialOrganizationsThemeetingsatBrettonWoodsresultedinthecreationoftheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)andtheWorldBankAnotherimportantinternationalorganization,theBankforInternationalSettlements(BIS)istheoldestmajorinternationalfinancialinstitutioninexistencetoday31TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)TheIMFisavoluntaryinstitutionownedanddirectedbythecountriesthatchoosetojoinmembercountriesagreetoexchangetheircurrenciesfreelywithotherforeigncurrencies,tokeeptheIMFinformedofchangesinfinancialandmonetarypoliciesthatmayaffectothermembers,andtheadjustthesepoliciesbasedonrecommendationsoftheIMFforthegreatercommongood32TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)WhenjoiningtheIMF,eachcountryisassessedaquotamembershipfeebasedonitseconomicimportanceandtheamountofitsinternationaltradeAcountry’svotingrightsareproportionatetotheamountofitsquota33TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)TheIMFadministersthepooloffundsgeneratedbythequotastoassistmembercountriesthathavedeficitsintheirbalanceofpaymentsandareunabletopayalloftheclaimsthatarebeingpresentedtothemTheIMFalsohasstandbyagreementswithitswealthiestmemberstoborrowsupplementalfundsifneeded34TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)In1969,theIMFcreatedspecialdrawingrights(SDRs)internationalreserveassetsthatsupplementotherinternationalreservesthevalueoftheSDRisaweightedaverageoftheU.S.dollar,theeuro,theJapaneseyen,andBritishpoundcentralbanksuseSDRstomakepaymentstoothermembercountries(ratherthancurrency)35TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)Inthepast,SDRswereissuedtomembercountriesaccordingtotheirquotasonly2distributionshavebeenmadesincetheirinceptionthelastwasin1981in1997,theIMFproposedanadditionalallocationbymid2003,therewasnotenoughapprovalyettopass36TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)DuringtheBrettonWoodsera,theIMF’sactivitiescenteredonmonitoringthefixedexchangeratesystemandassistingcountriesmaintainingitNowtheIMF,inanadvisorycapacity,overseeseconomicpoliciesthataffectthebalanceofpaymentsandexchangerates37TheWorldBankTheWorldBankisaninvestmentbankthatissuesbondsandusestheproceedstomakelong-term,lowinterestrateloanstopoorcountriesforeconomicdevelopmentprojectsthebondshaveahighcreditratingbecausetheWorldBank’s184membercountriesguaranteerepayment38TheWorldBankTheWorldBankisreally2organizationstheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopmentmakes12-to15-yearlowinterestrateloanstopoorcountrieswithanannualpercapitaGDPbetween$865and$5,225theInternationalDevelopmentAssociationmakesinterest-freeloanswithamaturityof35-40yearstotheworld’spoorestcountries(percapitaGDPoflessthan$865peryear)39TheInternationalFinanceCorporationTheInternationalFinanceCorporationcreatesfundingforprivateenterprisesindevelopingcountrieslegallyseparatebutassociatedwiththeWorldBankencouragessmallbusinessdevelopmenthasalsohelpedtoestablishstockmarketsinmanydevelopingcountries40TheBankforInternationalSettlementsTheBankforInternationalSettlements(BIS)isanindependentfinancialorganizationcreatedin1930tomonitorandadministerthereparationsthatthecountriesdefeatedinWWIwererequiredtopaytothevictoriousnationswasalsotoprovidespecializedservicestocentralbanks41TheBankforInternationalSettlementsSince1960,thefunctionsoftheBIShaveexpandedactsasatrusteeformanyfinancialagreementsandmonitorscompliancewiththeagreementsactiveinidentifying,negotiating,andmonitoringinternationalbankingstandardsassistscountriesindevelopingsoundfinancialpractices42TheBankforInternationalSettlementsCurrently,55countriesaremembersoftheBISacountrydoesnothavetobeamembertohaveanaccountwiththebankcentralbanksofover130countrieshavedepositaccountswithBIS43TheBankforInternationalSettlementsTheBISisalsoameetingplacewherecentralbankersconsultonamonthlybasissincetheearly1960s,agroupof11countries(knownastheG-10)haveheldmonthlymeetingstodiscussinternationalfinancialmatters44AFrameworkforInternationalFinancialSecurityLeadersfromCanada,Germany,France,Italy,Japan,theUnitedKingdom,andtheU.S.(knownastheG-7)havemetannuallysince1975todiscusscommonconcernsincludingtheinternationalfinancialsystem45AFrameworkforInternationalFinancialSecurityThefinancialcrisisinAsiainthelate1990srevealedseveraldeficienciesintheinternationalfinancialsystemasaresult,theG-7nationscreatedtheFinancialStabilityForum(FSF)promotesinternationalfinancialstabilitythroughtheexchangeofinformationfosterscooperationinfinancialsupervisionandsurveillance46AFrameworkforInternationalFinancialSecurityEmergingcountriesthatwanttotakeadvantageofincreasedinternationalflowsneedsupportandencouragementtodevelopstablefinancialmarketsthatareappropriatelysupervisedinternallyandexternallyencouragetheappropriateamountofrisktakingensurethatthesystemisstrongenoughtodealwithprivatefailures47AFrameworkforInternationalFinancialSecurityInadditiontoestablishinghealthyfinancialsystems,countriesmustalsostandardizethereportingofinformationabouttheirfinancialmarkets,institutions,laws,andregulationsfinancialandnonfinancialinstitutionsshouldadoptinternationalaccountingstandards48SummaryofMajorPointsTheinternationalfinancialsystemconsistsofthearrangements,rules,customs,instruments,facilities,andorganizationsthatenablepaymentstobemadeandfundstoflowacrossborderscomposedoftheinternationalmoneyandcapitalmarketsandtheforeignexchangemarket49SummaryofMajorPointsTheBrettonWoodsAccordof1944establishedfixedexchangeratesbetweentheU.S.dollarandothermajorcurrenciesforeigncurrenciesweredefinedintermsoftheU.S.dollarandforeigncountriesagreedtobuyorselldollarstomaintaintheagreed-uponexchangeratesthedollarwasdefinedintermsofgoldtheU.S.agreedtoconvertanyunwanteddollarsofcentralbanksintogold50SummaryofMajorPointsUnderfixedexchangerates,ifacountryotherthentheU.S.hadadeficitinitscurrentandcapitalaccounts,itusedsuppliesofdollarstopurchaseitsowncurrencytomaintainitsexchangevaluetheoppositewasalsotruepersistentdeficitsorsurplusesresultedincountrieshavingtodevalueorrevaluetheircurrencies51SummaryofMajorPointsTheU.S.wasintheuniquepositionofbeingabletorunpersistentdeficitsinitscurrentandcapitalaccountswhileforeigncentralbankswereaccumulatingdollarstoserveasinternationalreservesoncecentralbankshadenoughdollars,theabilityoftheU.S.torundeficitsonitscurrentandcapitalaccountswaslimited52SummaryofMajorPointsEventually,theU.S.wasunabletoconvertdollarsintogold,andtheBrettonWoodssystemcollapsedin1973itwasreplacedbyasystemofflexibleexchangerates53SummaryofMajorPointsUnderflexibleexchangerates,thevalueofthedollarisdeterminedbythedemandforandthesupplyofdollarsthedemandfordollarsisdeterminedbyforeigndemandforU.S.goods,services,andsecuritiesthesupplyofdollarsisdeterminedbyU.S.demandforforeigngoods,services,andsecurities54SummaryofMajorPointsSince1973,majorindustrializedcountrieshaveparticipatedinamanagedfloatexchangeratesystemunderamanagedfloat,marketforcesdetermineexchangeratesgovernmentscanintervenebysupplyingordemandingcurrenciestoaffectexchangeratessmallercountriesofte