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ThinkAhead
2024GLOBALECONOMICOUTLOOK–
SLOWGROWTH,HIGHUNCERTAINTY
AboutACCA
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3
Introduction
Thisisaninauguralpublicationwhichwehopewillhelpyouandyourstakeholdersnavigatethe
manychallengesandrisksintheglobaleconomyintheyearahead.Weintendtoproduceitannuallyinthefutureand,hence,wouldgreatlyappreciateanythoughtsorfeedbackyoumayhaveonit.
Inanattempttotryanddifferentiateitsomewhatfromthe
manyotheroutlookpublicationsproducedaroundthistime
ofyear,weincludesummariesofinterviewswithsevenchief
financialofficers(CFOs)fromacrosstheglobe.Theyprovidedtheirbottom-upperspectivesfromthecorporatelevelonhowtheyseetheprospectsfortheworldandtheirregionsand
countriesin2024.InSection1,wediscusstheprospectsfortheglobaleconomyandkeycountriesin2024,aswellassomeof
themajorrisks.InSection2,wehighlightanddiscussthekeyriskeventstowatch,inayearpackedfullofelectionsaroundtheglobe.InSection3,wehighlightthreekeytrendswewillbecloselyfollowinginthecomingyear:i)furtherbackslidingbygovernmentsonpoliciesintendedtoachievethegreen
transition;ii)risinggeoeconomicfragmentation;andiii)
developmentswithartificialintelligence(AI).Finally,inSection4wepublishsummariesofinterviewswithsevenCFOs.
4
Executivesummary
Theglobaleconomylookssettogrowslowlyonceagainin2024,anddownsiderisksremain.
Thelaggedimpactofpastmonetarytighteningcouldleadtoanevenmorepronouncedslowingingrowth,andgeopoliticalrisksremainveryheightened,whilethebusypoliticalcalendaradds
asizeableextradegreeofuncertaintyandpotentialvolatility.
U.S.growthislikelytoslowfrom2023,butthechancesoftheFederalReserve(Fed)pullingoffasoft-landinglookbetter
thanevennow.GrowthwillremainweakintheeuroareaandUKamidrestrictivemonetarypolicyandtighterfiscalpolicy,butshouldstillbemoderatelypositive.TherecoveryinChinaremainsquitetentative,andpolicymakerswilllikelyhave
tomateriallystep-uppolicysupportin2024iftheywantto
achievegrowthsimilarto2023.Meanwhile,growthinIndiaissettoremainrobust,anditislikelytobethefastest-growingmajoreconomyonceagainin2024.
Thisyearhasanextraordinarilybusypoliticalcalendar.Akey
focusforbusinessesandinvestorswillbetheU.S.electionin
November.Inwhatislikelytobeaverytightrace,pollsinkeyswingstatescurrentlygiveformerPresidentTrumpaslight
advantage.Avictoryfortheformerpresidentcouldhavemajorimplicationsforinternationaltrade,geopoliticsandthegreentransition.Therearealsoelectionsinothereconomicallyandgeopoliticallyimportantcountries.InIndia,PrimeMinister
Modilookssetforanotherfive-yearterm,whileintheUK,
theoppositioncentre-leftLabourPartylooksoncourseto
returntopower.InEurope,far-rightpoliticalpartieslooksettoperformwellinEuropeanParliamentaryandGerman
regionalelections.InSouthAfrica,theAfricanNational
Congress(ANC)ishighlylikelytoremainthelargestpartybutisatriskoflosingitsparliamentarymajorityforthefirsttimesincetheendofApartheid.
Inadditiontocloselymonitoringtheusualebbandflowof
economicandfinancialmarketsdatathroughouttheyear,
wewillalsobepayingparticularlycloseattentiontothree
keytrends:i)furtherbackslidingbygovernmentsonpolicies
intendedtoachievethegreentransition;ii)risinggeoeconomicfragmentation;andiii)developmentswithartificialintelligence(AI).Thefirsttwocouldbeparticularlyinfluencedbypolitical
developmentsthroughouttheyear.Forthelast,wewillbeonthelookoutforanyearlysignsthatwideradoptioncouldbebeginningtoprovideamuch-neededboosttoproductivitygrowthinglobaleconomies.Inparticular,asgenerativeAI
continuestodevelop,moreaccessiblemodelscouldincreasethediscoveryofnewandbetterapplications.
Tosupportoureconomicanalysis,wealsointerviewedsevenCFOsfromacrosstheglobeinvarioussectors,togaina
bottom-upperspectiveonhowbusinessleadersseetheyearahead.Ingeneral,therewasafeelingofcautionabout2024,
amidthechallengingglobaleconomicbackdropandgiventhegeopoliticaldevelopmentsandelectionsinmanycountries.
Somebusinesseswerenaturallylessimpactedbycyclical
economicdevelopments,butanumberwereaffectedby,oratriskfrom,structuralchangesrelatedtotrade,andsupply
chainissues.MostwereexperimentingwithAIandother
technologiesintheirbusinesses,whilesomenoteddifficultyinattractingtalent,givenchangingwaysofworking.Onenotedhowglobalwarminghadrecentlyimpactedhisbusiness.
5
Section1:
ProspectsfortheGlobaleconomyin2024
Theglobaleconomyperformedbetterthanexpectedin2023,avoidingthemajordownturnthatmanyobserversfeared.
Itbenefitedfromthesharpfallincommoditypricesfromtheir2022peaksandthecontinuedrecoveryofglobalsupplychainsandnormalisationofservicesectors,whileeconomiesprovedmoreresilientthanexpectedtotheaggressiveincreasesin
centralbankinterestrates.Thisprobablyreflectsthesupporttoconsumerspendingfromexcesssavingsbuiltupduringthepandemic,aswellasthefactthatmanyhouseholdsandfirmshadpreviouslylockedinlowinterestrates.
Therewas,nonetheless,stilladivergenceinperformance
amongthemajoreconomies.TheU.S.andIndiaperformed
strongly,theChineserecoverywasdisappointing,whilegrowthwasweakintheeuroarea.Overall,theglobaleconomyisstillthoughttohavegrownbywellbelowitsannualaverageof
recentdecades.TheWorldBankhasestimatedthatin2023therewasanexpansionofjust3%(see
Table1
),similartotheOECD’s2.9%estimatefromNovember(OECD2023).
Business-relatedsurveystypicallypointedtoslowingglobal
economicmomentumas2023progressed.InourGlobal
EconomicConditionsSurvey(GECS)(ACCA/IMA,2024),
confidenceamongaccountantsandfinancialprofessionals
globallyhasfallengraduallyforthreesuccessivequarterssinceQ1(seeChart1),whilethecloselywatchedJ.P.MorganGlobalCompositePurchasingManagers’Index(PMI)hasfallenquitemarkedlysinceitspeakinthespring,althoughithasimprovedslightlyinrecentmonths(S&PGlobal2024a).Acrosssectors,
themanufacturingPMIwasin,orquitecloseto,contractionaryterritorythroughmuchof2023(S&PGlobal2024b),whichis
reflectedintheweaknessinglobaltradegrowth,butitwastheslowingoftheservicesectorPMIthatdrovemostofthefallintheCompositeindex.Despitethedeclines,thesurveysarenotindicativeofamajorglobaldownturnatthepresenttime.
CHART1:GECSglobalbusinessconfidence
2011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023
Source:ACCA/IMA(2024)
Headlineinflationhasfallenbacksharplyinmostcountries
acrosstheglobeoverthepast12months,andcoreinflation
hasalsocomedownmateriallyinmany.Ofthetwomajor
advancedeconomies,headlineinflationiscurrently3.4%intheU.S.and2.9%intheeuroarea–welldownfromrecentpeaksofaround9%and11%respectively.Nevertheless,amidthe
recentrisesinheadlineinflationinbothcountriesinDecember,ratherstubbornservicesectorinflation(seeChart2),andan
elevatedriskofsupplyshocksamidthecurrentgeopolitical
backdrop,itcouldberiskyforthecentralbankstodeclare
imminentvictoryintheirbattlesagainstinflation.Indeed,
accordingtoglobalaccountantswhorespondedtoourGECSsurvey,concernsaboutcostsremainelevatedbyhistorical
standards(ACCA/IMA,2024).Withoutamorematerialeasinginjobmarkets,thereremainsasignificantriskthatthelastmileforcentralbanksingettinginflationsustainablybacktotheirtargets,couldprovetobethehardest.
CHART2:Servicesectorinflation
199019941998200220062010201420182022
Source:ASRLtd./LSEGDatastream(2024)
Amidtheimprovinginflationbackdrop,financialmarketshavepivotedtopricing-inamaterialamountofinterestratecutsthisyearinthemajoradvancedeconomies,withsomeobservers
evenexpectingcutsasearlyasthecurrentquarter.Athis
Decemberpressconference,FedChairJeromePowelladoptedasurprisinglydovishstance,andtheSummaryofEconomic
Projectionssuggestedthatthecommitteeexpectsthreeinterestratecutsin2024(FederalReserveBoard,2023),albeitstill
aroundhalfthenumbercurrentlyexpectedbyfinancialmarkets.TheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB)andtheBankofEngland
(BoE)adoptedmorehawkishposturesinDecember,althoughECBPresidentChristineLagardehassubsequentlysuggestedthatmonetaryeasingcouldbegininthesummer.Reflecting
thechangeinmarketexpectationsaroundcentralbanks,
particularlytheFed,therehasbeenquiteamaterialeasinginglobalfinancialconditionssincelateOctober,with10-yearU.S.Treasuryyieldsfallingsharply,theS&P500risingstrongly,andtheU.S.dollarweakeninginbroadtradeweightedterms.
2024GLOBALECONOMICOUTLOOK–SLOWGROWTH,HIGHUNCERTAINTY|SECTION1:PROSPECTSFORTHEGLOBALECONOMYIN2024
6
Focusingontheprospectsfor2024,globalgrowthislikely
tocomeinmateriallybelowitsaverageonceagain,witha
broadlysimilarpaceofexpansionaslastyear.TheWorldBankforecastsanincreaseof2.9%inglobalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)(seeTable1),whiletheOECDexpectsaslightlyslowergainof2.7%(OECD2023).Growthislikelytobewellbelow
itsaverageinadvancedeconomiesas,despitethelikelihoodofsomemonetaryeasing–probablybeginninginthe
summer,centralbanksmaintainrestrictivemonetarypoliciestoensurevictoryintheirbattlesagainstinflation.Meanwhile,fiscalpoliciesalsolooksettobecontractionaryinthemajoradvancedeconomies,whilepoliticaluncertainty,amidmajorelectionsthisyear,aswellaselevatedgeopoliticaltensions,couldweighonconfidenceandspending.
TABLE1:WorldBankeconomicforecasts
2022
2023E
2024E
World*
3.3
3
2.9
AEs
2.5
1.5
1.2
EMs
3.7
4
3.9
EMXC
4.2
3.2
3.5
China
3.0
5.2
4.5
U.S.
1.9
2.5
1.6
Euroarea
3.4
0.4
0.7
India**
7.2
6.3
6.4
Source:WorldBank2024
*‘World’isGDPgrowthbasedonPurchasingPowerParitycalculationmethodology.AEs=AdvancedEconomies,EMs=Emergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,EMXC=EMsexcludingChina
**TheIndianumbersarebasedonfiscalyears.
Similarly,growthinemergingeconomiesisgenerallyexpectedtobebelowitsaverage,althoughakeyfactorbehindthisis
theslowergrowthintheChineseeconomythantheheady
paceofpreviousdecades.Growthinemergingeconomies
excludingChinaisactuallyexpectedtoimprovemodestlyin
2024fromthatof2023,withtheWorldBankforecastinggrowthof3.5%in2024versus3.2%in2023.Clearly,anumberof
emerginganddevelopingcountrieswillremainunderpressure,givenslowgrowthintheadvancedeconomiesandtightglobalfinancialconditions,butanumberofimportantcountries
arelikelytoregisteraprettysolidperformancein2024.For
example,theWorldBankforecastsgrowthof6.4%,4.9%,4.1%,2.6%and2.6%inIndia,Indonesia,SaudiArabia,Polandand
Mexico,respectively.ThestartofpolicyeasingbytheFedshouldprovehelpfulforemergingeconomies,aswouldanyfurtherweakeningintheU.S.dollar.
THERISKSTOGLOBAL
GROWTHREMAINTOTHE
DOWNSIDETHISYEAR,AMIDAWORLDCHARACTERISEDBYSIGNIFICANTUNCERTAINTY
ANDPOTENTIALVOLATILITY.
Theriskstoglobalgrowthremaintothedownsidethisyear,amidaworldcharacterisedbysignificantuncertaintyand
potentialvolatility.Theseincludeamajorriskthatthelaggedimpactofglobalmonetarytighteningcouldleadtoaharderlandingintheadvancedeconomies,and/ormajorfinancial
stresses.Thisriskisperhapsnotquiteasheightenedas
lookedlikelyinlateautumn,amidthesubsequentsomewhatlooseninginglobalfinancialconditions,arisingchanceofasoftlandingfortheU.S.economy,andgivenwhatlookslikeapivottowardsmonetaryeasingbyadvancedeconomies’
centralbanksthisyear.Nevertheless,ifinflationremains
stubborn,forcingamajorrepricingoffinancialmarket
expectationsforinterestrates,thenthemagnitudeofthisriskwouldincreaseagain.
Meanwhile,geopoliticalriskshavebecomeevenmoreelevatedinrecentmonths,witharisingriskofabroaderescalationof
theconflictintheMiddleEast.TheattacksbyHouthirebels
havealreadyfuelledasharpdeclineinshippingthroughthe
SuezCanal(seeChart3),andeventsintheMiddleEastclearlyhavethepotentialtocausealargeincreaseinenergyprices
andglobalshippingcosts.Thiswouldclearlybeverydamagingforbusinessandconsumerconfidence,andwouldgreatly
complicatecentralbanks’taskofgettinginflationsustainablydowntotheirtargets.Elsewhere,theconflictbetweenRussiaandUkrainecontinuestoexacerbatethegeopoliticalsituation.
CHART3:GlobalshippingcapacitypassingthroughtheSuezCanal
20192020202120222023
Source:ASRLtd./LSEGDatastream/IMFPortWatch(2024)
2024GLOBALECONOMICOUTLOOK–SLOWGROWTH,HIGHUNCERTAINTY|SECTION1:PROSPECTSFORTHEGLOBALECONOMYIN2024
7
Politicalriskwillalsobeparticularlyheightenedin2024amid
suchanextremelybusyyearforelections(seeSection2:Key
eventsin2024–averypoliticalyear).AkeyfocusfortheglobaleconomyandfinancialmarketswillbetheU.S.election,withare-runofPresidentBidenversusformerPresidentTrump
seeminghighlylikely.Theresultwilllikelybeveryclose,with
opinionpollsinswingstatescurrentlysuggestingthattheformerpresidenthasaslightadvantage.AvictoryforDonaldTrump
couldhavemajorimplicationsforglobaltrade,geopoliticsandthegreentransition.Upsideriskstotheglobaleconomyin2024couldcomefromcontinuingrapidimprovementsininflation,
pavingthewayforquiteanearlyandsignificanteasingof
monetarypolicybycentralbanks.Ofcourse,thatcouldalsorisksowingtheseedsofhigherinflationin2025andbeyond.
Accordingtoour2023Q4GlobalRisksSurvey(ACCA/IMA,
2024),economic-relatedrisksremainedfirmlyinfirstplace
amongriskpriorities,althoughsuchconcernshadeased
slightlyfrompreviousquarters(seeChart4).Economic-relatedriskswererankedinfirstplaceby21%ofrespondentsworkinginfinancialservices,andby29%ofthoseworkinginthe
corporatesector.Overall,talentretentionremainedinsecondplacefollowedbyregulatorychange.Geopoliticalriskshaverisensignificantlyuptheranksofriskprioritiessince2022Q4.
Turningtothekeycountries,afterexpandingrobustlyin2023,theU.S.economyislikelytoslowmateriallyin2024.AccordingtothelatestSurveyofProfessionalForecasters,theU.S.is
expectedtogrowby1.7%in2024(FederalReserveBankof
Philadelphia2023),whichisbroadlysimilartotheWorldBankforecast(WorldBank2024).Despitethelikelihoodofapivot
tomonetaryeasingbytheFed,monetarypolicyislikelyto
remainrestrictiveamidelevatedrealinterestrates.Fiscalpolicyalsolookssettodragongrowththisyear(Brookings2023).
Meanwhile,thedwindlingofexcesssavingsbuiltupduring
thepandemicandslowingjobsandwagegrowthshouldhelptoslowconsumerspending.Nevertheless,itisnowlooking
likeabetterthanevenchancethattheFedmayachieveasoftlandingfortheeconomy,amidtheeasinginfinancialconditionsinrecentmonths(seeChart5),theimprovementintheinflationbackdrop,andgiventhelikelihoodofsomeinterestratecuts.
CHART5:U.S.Weightedaveragelendingrates
%
19982000200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024
Source:ASRLtd./LSEGDatastream(2024)
CHART4:Top-rankedriskprioritiesin2023,accordingtoaccountancyandfinancialprofessionals
%
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Q4Q3Q2
Economicinflation/recession/
interestrates
Regulatory/
compliance/
legal
International
andgeopolitical
instability
Technology/
data/
cybersecurity
Misconduct/
fraud/
reputational
damage
Climatechange/
relatedregulation
/itssocialand
economicimpacts
Logistics/
supplychain
disruption/
supplyshortages
Withdrawaloffiscalmeasures/highertaxation
Currency,
includingcrypto,
digitalassets
andFX
Talentscarcity/skillsgaps/employee
retention
Source:ACCA/IMA(2024),ACCA/IMAGlobalRiskssurvey(2023)<
/gb/en/professional-insights/global-economics/GECS_q4_2023.html
>
2024GLOBALECONOMICOUTLOOK–SLOWGROWTH,HIGHUNCERTAINTY|SECTION1:PROSPECTSFORTHEGLOBALECONOMYIN2024
8
Intheeuroarea,theeconomicbackdropremainsratherbleak,withtheeconomycontractingby0.1%inQ3andbeingflat
inQ4.Tightmonetarypolicyhasweighedheavilyonbank
lendingandhousingmarkets,andthesoftglobaleconomy
hashurtexports.ECBestimatesalsosuggestthatfiscalpolicyislikelytobemeaningfullymorecontractionaryin2024.The
locomotivefortheregion’seconomy,Germany,isstruggling,astheriseinenergycostssinceRussia’sinvasionofUkraine
hasweighedonitsall-importantmanufacturingsector,as
hastheweakChineseeconomicrecoveryandthegrowing
competitionfromitsascendantelectricvehicleindustry.Onapositivenote,theregion’sjobsmarketremainstight(seeChart6),andrealincomegrowthhasturnedpositive.Thisshould
providesomesupporttotheconsumer,whilethebeginningofmonetaryeasingwillalsoprovidesomerelieftotheeconomy.Growthoverallin2024willbeweak,butshouldbemoderatelypositive.AccordingtotheECB’slatestSurveyofProfessionalForecasters,economistsexpectedanexpansionof0.6%in
2024(ECB2024),slightlylowerthantheWorldBank’sestimateof0.7%(WorldBank2024).
CHART6:Euroareaunemploymentrate
%
200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022
Source:Eurostat
ONAPOSITIVENOTE,THEREGION’SJOBSMARKET
REMAINSTIGHTANDREAL
INCOMEGROWTHHASTURNED
POSITIVE.THISSHOULD
PROVIDESOMESUPPORTTOTHECONSUMER,WHILETHEBEGINNINGOFMONETARY
EASINGWILLALSOPROVIDE
SOMERELIEFTOTHEECONOMY.
IntheUK,theeconomycontractedby0.1%inQ3,andanothersoftreadingseemslikelyinQ4.Growthislikelytobeweak
in2024amidtightmonetarypolicyandcontractionaryfiscal
policy,withthefreezeinincometaxandnationalinsurance
thresholds.Thatsaid,withanelectionlikelyintheautumn,thegovernmentwillusewhateverroomisavailableinitsupcomingMarchBudgettotryandreducethemagnitudeofthefiscal
dragsomewhat.Furthertaxcutsseemhighlylikely.Growth
willlikelybemoderatelypositivein2024,improvinggraduallyastheyearprogressesamidpositiverealincomegrowthandthelikelihoodofsomemonetaryeasing.InNovember2023,
theBoEandOfficeforBudgetResponsibility(OBR)forecast
growthof0%and0.7%respectively,in2024(BoE2023;OBR2023)whiletheaverageofindependentforecastscompiledbyHMTreasuryinJanuarywas0.4%(HMTreasury2024).
China’srecoveryafterexitingitsZeroCOVIDpolicieswas
weakerthanexpectedin2023,asproblemsintheall-importanthousingmarket,depressedconfidenceandweakexportsall
weighedontheeconomy.Therecentdatahasbeenquite
mixed,butthegovernmentstillachieveditsGDPgrowthtargetof‘a(chǎn)round5%’for2023withanexpansionof5.2%.Withthe
recoverystillquitetentative,problemswithhousing,rising
fearsofdeflationandlargeexternalrisks,furthermeasurestosupporthousing,monetaryeasingandincreasedfiscalstimulusseemlikelyin2024.Butthegovernmentstillseemskeento
avoidtheexcessivestimulusthathastypicallyoccurredinthepast.Withless-favourablebaseeffectsthisyearthanlast,itwillbedifficultforthegovernmenttoachievepastgrowthagain.InNovember,theOECDforecast2024growthof4.7%,and
theWorldBankexpectsanexpansionof4.5%(OECD2023;WorldBank2024).Developmentsinthehousingmarketandthespilloversfromthesetothewidereconomyandfinancialmarketsremainamajordownsiderisk.
Finally,theIndianeconomywasthebestperformingofthe
largeeconomiesin2023andisoncourseforanotheryearofstronggrowthin20241.TheNationalStatisticalOfficeexpectsgrowthofover7%infiscalyear2023-24,whilethegovernoroftheReserveBankofIndiasuggestedthatheseesgrowthof
7%infiscalyear2024-25–strongerthanWorldBankestimates(ShaktikantaDas2024).Reflectingthebullishbackdrop,
thestockmarkethassurgedclosetorecordhighs,andthe
purchasingmanager’ssurveysremainupbeat(S&PGlobal
2024c;2024d).Theeconomyislikelytocontinuetobenefit
fromstronginfrastructurespendingbythegovernment,solidservicesectorexports,andthediversificationofinternationalsupplychains.AModivictoryintheelectioncouldalsoreduceuncertaintyandspursomestrengtheninginprivatesector
investment.Developmentswithdomesticfoodprices,andinternationalenergyprices,remainkeyrisks,asalways.
1Note,forecastsfortheIndianeconomyareusuallymadeonafiscalyearbasis.Forexample,anannualforecastforcalendaryear2024,willbebasedonthefiscalyear2024/25.ThiswillrunfromthebeginningofApril2024totheendofMarch2025.
9
Section2:
Keyeventsin2024–averypoliticalyear
2024isanextremelybusyandimportantyearonthepoliticalfront,withtheworld’sfourlargest
democracies,India,theU.S.,IndonesiaandPakistan,amongothers,goingtothepolls(seeChart7).
CHART7:Keyeventcalendarfor2024
FEBRUARY
14February:IndonesiaPresidentialElection
8February:PakistanGeneralElection
MARCH
5March:
ChinaNationalPeople’sCongress
1March:IranLegislativeElection
10March:PortugalLegislativeElection
6March:UKBudget
17March:RussiaPresidentialElection
APRIL
10April:KoreaLegislativeElection
MAY
likelyApril–May:
IndiaGeneralElection
JUNE
2June:MexicoGeneralElection
6–9June:EuropeanParliamentElection
9June:BelgiumFederalElection
JULY
26July–11August:
Paris2024OlympicGames
AUGUST
betweenMay–August:SouthAfricaGeneralElection
likely2024:ChinaThirdPlenum
September:
GermanyRegionalElections
betweenSeptember–October:
SriLankaPresidentialElection
SEPTEMBER
likelyAutumn2024:
UKGeneralElection
OCTOBER
NOVEMBER
5November:
U.S.PresidentialElection
18–19November:
G20meeting,Brazil
11–24November:
COP29,Baku,Azerbaijan
DECEMBER
Source:National/InternationalsourcesandWikipedia
2024GLOBALECONOMICOUTLOOK–SLOWGROWTH,HIGHUNCERTAINTY|SECTION2:KEYEVENTSIN2024–AVERYPOLITICALYEAR
10
SincetheGlobalFinancialCrisisin2008–9,populistpoliticians,partiesandpolicieshavegenerallybeenontherise,particularlyinadvancedeconomies,exemplifiedbytheUK’sdecision
toleavetheEUandDonaldTrump’svictoryinthe2016U.S.
Presidentialelection.Thefirst-placefinishbyfar-rightcandidateGeertWildersintherecentDutchgeneralelectionsuggests
thatvoterconcernsaboutthecostofliving,immigrationandinternationaltrademayprovideafertilegroundforpopulist,anti-establishmentpoliticiansoverthecomingyear.
AbsolutelykeyfromaglobaleconomicandfinancialmarketperspectivewillbetheU.S.Presidentialelectionon5
November.Are-runof2020withPresidentJoeBidenpittedagainstformerPresidentTrumplookshighlylikely.PresidentBiden’spersonalapprovalratingsareverylow,andformerPresidentTrumphassmallleadsinbothnationalpolling
averagesand,importantly,inpollsinmostkeyswingstates(seeChart8).
CHART8:U.S.presidentialelection–pollingaverages
%
Biden
Trump
50
48
46
44
42
40
38
36
NationalArizonaGeorgiaMichiganNevadaPennsylvaniaWisconsin
Source:RealClearPolling(2024a)
National=RCPaverage10thDecember-16thJanuary,States=RCPaverageSeptember-January.Thenumbersdonotsumto100aspollingforothercandidateshasbeenexcluded.
ABSOLUTELYKEYFROM
AGLOBALECONOMIC
ANDFINANCIALMARKETPERSPECTIVEWILLBE
THEU.S.PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONON5NOVEMBER.
2024GLOBALECONOMICOUTLOOK–SLOWGROWTH,HIGHUNCERTAINTY|SECTION2:KEYEVENT
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