2024年東南亞國家態(tài)勢調(diào)查報告（英文版）-東南亞研究所（ISEAS）

THESTATEOF

SOUTHEASTASIA

2024

SURVEYREPORT

TheStateofSoutheastAsia2024SurveyReport

ispublishedbytheASEANStudiesCentreat

ISEAS-YusofIshakInstituteandavailableelectronicallyat

.sg

Ifyouhaveanycommentsorenquiriesaboutthesurvey,pleaseemailusatasc@.sg

Publishedon2April2024PrintISSN:27375102

DigitalISSN:27375110

REPORTCOMPILEDANDWRITTENBY:

SharonSeah

JoanneLin

MelindaMartinus

KristinaFong

IndiraAridati

PhamThiPhuongThaoDamonChee

Thereportcanbecitedas:Seah,S.etal.,

TheStateofSoutheastAsia:2024SurveyReport(Singapore:ISEAS-YusofIshakInstitute,2024)

TheauthorsareresearchersattheASEANStudiesCentre,

ISEAS–YusofIshakInstitute.

ISEAS-YusofIshakInstitute

30HengMuiKengTerrace,Singapore119614

Tel:(65)68704509Fax:(65)67781735

Allrightsreserved.

ASEAN

studiescentre

YUSOFISHAKINSTITUTE

ISEAS-YusofIshakInstitute(formerlyInstituteofSoutheastAsianStudies)isanautonomousorganisationestablishedin1968.Itisaregionalcentrededicatedtothestudyofsocio-political,security,andeconomictrendsanddevelopmentsinSoutheastAsiaanditswidergeostrategicandeconomicenvironment.TheInstitute’sresearchprogrammesaregroupedunderRegionalEconomicStudies(RES),RegionalSocialandCulturalStudies(RSCS)andRegionalStrategicandPoliticalStudies(RSPS).TheInstituteisalsohometotheASEANStudiesCentre(ASC),theTemasekHistoryResearchCentre(THRC)andtheSingaporeAPECStudyCentre.

TheASEANStudiesCentre(ASC)wasestablishedin2008toresearchonissuespertainingtotheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)asaninstitutionandaprocess.Throughresearch,publications,conferences,mediaengagementandoutreachactivities,ASCseekstopromotegreaterunderstandingofASEANandtocontributetowardregionalcooperationandintegration.TheCentreconductsstudiesandprovidesinputstostakeholdersonissuesandmattersthatcallforcollectiveASEANactionsandresponses,especiallythosepertinenttotheASEANCommunitybuildingprocess.TheASCisthefirstinstitutionalRecipientofthe2020ASEANPrize,aprestigiousawardtohonouroutstandingachievementsofindividualsororganisationswhohavemademeaningfulcontributionstoASEAN.

CONTENTS

ABOUTTHESURVEY2

METHODOLOGY3

SURVEYHIGHLIGHTS4

SECTIONI

Respondents’Profile6

SECTIONII

RegionalOutlookandViewsofInternationalDevelopments11

SECTIONIII

MajorPowers’RegionalInfluenceandLeadership33

SECTIONIV

US-ChinaRivalryanditsImpactonSoutheastAsia46

SECTIONV

PerceptionsofTrust55

SECTIONVI

SoftPower68

THESTATEOFSOUTHEASTASIA:20241

TheStateofSoutheastAsiasurvey,nowinits6thyear,continuestogaugetheviewsandperceptionsofSoutheastAsiansongeopoliticaldevelopmentsaffectingtheregion,keyinternationalaffairsandhowASEANDialoguePartnershaveengagedwiththeregionovertheprecedingyear.

TheobjectiveofTheStateofSoutheastAsiasurveyistopresentasnapshotoftheprevailingattitudesamongthoseinapositiontoinformorinfluencepolicyonregionalissues.Thesurveyisnotmeanttopresentadefinitiveviewofissuesintheregion.Thisyear’ssurveywasconductedoveraperiodofsevenweeksfrom3January2024to23February2024.Thesurveywasofferedinsixlanguageoptions–English,BahasaIndonesia,Burmese,Khmer,Thai,andVietnamese.Atotalof1,994respondentsfromtenSoutheastAsiancountriestookpartinthesurvey.

Therearesixsectionsinthesurvey.SectionIcoverstheprofileoftherespondentsbynationality,affiliation,age,andeducation.SectionIIexplorestheregionaloutlookandprovidesviewpointsoninternationalaffairsinthepastyear.SectionIIIexaminesregionalinfluenceandleadershipofmajorandmiddlepowers.SectionIVlooksintoASEAN’soptionsinthechangingregionalpolitical-securityarchitecture.SectionVmeasuresperceptionsoftrustamongSoutheastAsianstowardsfivecountries–China,US,Japan,theEuropeanUnion,andIndia.SectionVIgaugeslevelsofsoftpowerintheregionbasedontravelandworkrelocationchoices.Thequestionsandresultshavebeenreorganisedforoptimalflowandreporting.Figureshavebeenroundedup/downtothenearestonedecimalpoint,andmaynotaddupto100.0%exactly.

ABOUTTHESURVEY

2SURVEYREPORT

METHODOLOGY

Wehavecontinuedtomakeimprovementsinmethodology.Eligibilitycriteriaweretightenedthisyearbasedonnationality,age,affiliation,andeducation.RespondentswerefurtherscreenedontheirgeneralknowledgeofASEANandlevelofinterestincurrentaffairs.

Puttingasidebranchingquestions,thesurveycomprised51questionsintotalwhichtookapproximately20to35minutestocomplete.Itwasconductedcompletelyonlineusingamixedsamplingmethod.Atotalof1,994SoutheastAsianscompletedthesurveyfrombothnon-panelandpanelprovider.

Respondentscamefrom5affiliationcategories:(a)academia,think-tankersorresearchers;(b)privatesectorrepresentatives;(c)civilsociety,NGOormediarepresentatives;(d)governmentofficials;and(e)regionalorinternationalorganisationspersonnel.

A10%weightingaveragewasappliedtoeachcountry’sresponsestocalculatetheaveragefiguresforASEANasawhole.Thisistoensurethattheresponsesofeachcountryarerepresentedbyequalproportion,giventhatASEAN’sdecision-makingprocessesarebasedoneachcountryhavingequalsay,regardlessofgeographicalorpopulationsize.Finalanalysisofregionalsentimentwasconductedontheweighteddataset.Astrictsetofcriteriaduringthedatacleaningprocesswasappliedtoremoveself-selectionbias,speeders,andstraight-linersinordertomaintaindataqualityandintegrity.

Note:NoweightingwasappliedtorespondentprofileQuestions1to4.AdifferentstatisticalmethodwasappliedtoQuestion26.Itwasanalysedusingarank-summethod.A10%weightagewasappliedtoeachcountrytoensureproportionalityofresponses,followedbyacalculationofsurvey-weightedmeanranksandscoresforeachoftheDialoguePartners.

THESTATEOFSOUTHEASTASIA:20243

SURVEYHIGHLIGHTS

1

SoutheastAsiacontinuestofaceunprecedentedchallengesintherapidlychangingglobalgeopoliticalandeconomicenvironmentandtheevolvingdynamicsbetweenmajorpowers.Unemploymentandeconomicrecessionremaintheregion’smostpressingconcern(57.7%),followedbytheimpactofclimatechange(53.4%),andtheintensifyingeconomictensionsbetweenmajorpowers(47.0%).Terrorismcontinuestoranklast(10.0%).

57.7%oeloicyi

53.4%Climatechangeandmoreextremeweatherevents

47.0%Intensifying

economictensionsbetweenmajor

powers

$

46.5%Israel-Hamasconflict

SCS39.9%egiiaeiurin

39.4%Russia-UkraineWar

39.4%Globalscamoperations

2

Politicaldivisions,territorialdisputes,andspill-overeffectsfromconflictscontinuetobestrategicuncertaintiesfacingtheregion.Israel-Hamasconflict(46.5%)andaggressivebehaviourintheSouthChinaSea(39.9%)aretheregion’stopgeopoliticalconcernsfollowedbytheRussia-Ukrainewar(39.4%),andglobalscamoperations(39.4%)tiedatthirdplace.ImplicationsarisingfromtheJanuary2024Taiwanelectionsisrankedlast(7.6%).

3

AlargeproportionofSoutheastAsiarespondentsareconcernedthatIsrael’sattackonGazahasgonetoofar.Riseinextremistactivities(29.7%),diminishedtrustininternationallawandrules-basedorder(27.5%),anderosionofdomesticsocialcohesion(17.5%)arethemostseriousimpactsoftheIsrael-HamasconflictonSoutheastAsia.

Riseinextremistactivitiesimpactingdomesticand

regionalsecurity

Diminishedtrustininternationallawandrules-basedorder

Erosionofdomesticsocialcohesionduetoreligiousdivisions

GreaterASEANdisunityduetodifferencesin

memberstates’positions

DoesnotimpactSoutheastAsia

29.7%

27.5%

17.5%

15.4%

9.9%

MostInfluential

EconomicPower59.5%

MostInfluential

Politicaland

StrategicPower

43.9%

StrategicRelevancetoASEAN

MeanScore:8.98

4

Chinacontinuestobeseenasthemostinfluentialeconomic(59.5%)andpolitical-strategic(43.9%)powerintheregion,outpacingtheUSbysignificantmarginsinbothdomains.AmongASEAN’selevenDialoguePartners,China(meanscoreof8.98outof11.0)topsthechartsintermsofstrategicrelevancetoASEAN,followedbytheUS(8.79),andJapan(7.48).Thepartnersofleaststrategicrelevanceare:India(5.04),Canada(3.81)andNewZealand(3.70).

4SURVEYREPORT

5

Toutedastheworld’sfirstregionaldigitaleconomyagreement,38.0%ofrespondentsfeelthattheASEANDigitalEconomyFrameworkAgreement(DEFA)wouldsignificantlycontributetoraisingdigitalcapabilitiesandenhancingregionaldigitaltradewhile2.6%feelthatitwillnotchangethestatusquo.16.8%oftherespondentsarenotawareoftheexistenceoftheagreement.

38.0%

Significantlycontributetoraising

digitalcapabilitiesandenhancing

regionaldigitaltrade

17.6%

Havealimitedimpactonraising

digitaltradeflowsduetoregional

differencesinstandardsand

digitalcapabilities

25.1%

Enhancecooperation

indigitaltrade

integrationinitiatives

2.6%

16.8%

Ihavenotheard

oftheDEFA

Not

change

the

status

quo

6

Indonesia41.5%

SingaporeandIndonesia,twooriginalASEANfoundingmembers,areacknowledgedashavingmadethebiggestcontributionstoASEAN’slong-termdevelopmentandprogress.Singaporeholds66.0%whereasIndonesiaholds41.5%ofthevotesforregionalleadership.

Singapore66.0%

2023

2024

7

China38.9%

US

61.1%

China50.5%

US

49.5%

ChinahasedgedpasttheUStobecometheprevailingchoice(50.5%)iftheregionwereforcedtoalignitselfintheon-goingUS-Chinarivalry.TheUSasachoicedroppedfrom61.1%inthepreviousyearto49.5%.Closetohalfoftherespondents(46.8%)believethatASEANshouldenhanceitsresilienceandunitytofendoffpressuresfromthetwomajorpowers.

58.9%

54.5%

54.2%

8

51.0%

42.4%

41.5%

Trust

★

★★

★

★★

2023

2024

2023

2024

2023

2024

★★

★★

★

★

Distrust

JapanremainsthemosttrustedmajorpoweramongSoutheastAsians(58.9%).TheUScomesinadistantsecond(42.4%),outpacingtheEU(41.5%)byanarrowmargin.Halfoftherespondents(50.1%)expressdistrusttowardsChinawith45.5%ofthemfearingthatChinacoulduseitseconomicandmilitarypowertothreatentheircountry’sinterestandsovereignty.

19.8%

26.1%

25.5%

29.1%

34.9%

37.6%

THESTATEOFSOUTHEASTASIA:20245

SECTIONI

Respondents’Profile

06-10

Thissectionfeaturesthebackgroundofthesurveyrespondents,includingtheirnationality,education,affiliation,andagedistribution.Noweightingisappliedinthissection.

6SURVEYREPORT

NATIONALITY

Atotalof1,994respondentsfromtenASEANmemberstatesparticipatedinthissurvey.Singaporeledwiththehighestnumberofrespondentsat273(13.7%),followedbyIndonesiaat265(13.3%)andMalaysiaat225(11.3%).Thebreakdownfortherestofthecountriesareasfollows:ThePhilippines(10.8%),Thailand(10.1%),Vietnam(10.0%),CambodiaandMyanmar(bothat9.5%),Laos(8.0%),andBrunei(3.9%).

Q1Whatisyournationality?

2024

2023

9.2%

3.9%

10.2%

9.5%

13.3%

9.3%

8.2%

8.0%

11.3%

9.5%

9.5%

8.8%

10.8%

7.6%

★

15.9%

13.7%

11.0%

10.4%

10.1%

10.0%

THESTATEOFSOUTHEASTASIA:20247

EDUCATION

Amajorityofrespondents(55.8%)holdaBachelor’sdegree,followedby19.4%withpost-secondary/non-tertiaryqualificationandanother18.3%withMaster’slevelattainment.ThesmallestgrouparethosewithaDoctoraldegreeat6.6%.ThecountrywiththehighestnumbersofBachelor’sdegreequalificationsisthePhilippines(70.2%)whereasthecountrywiththe

mostnumbersofrespondentswithaDoctoraldegreeisBrunei(23.4%).SingaporerespondentshavethehighestnumbersofMaster’sdegreeholders(32.6%)whereasthehighestnumberofpost-secondary/non-tertiaryeducationrespondentscomefromMyanmar(56.1%).

55.8%

Bachelor’sDegree

19.4%

Post-Secondary/Non-Tertiary

18.3%

Master’sDegree

6.6%

DoctoralDegree

Q2Whatisthehighesteducationlevelthatyouhaveattained?

Country

Post-Secondary/Non-Tertiary

Bachelor’sDegree

Master’sDegree

DoctoralDegree

ASEAN

19.4%

55.8%

18.3%

6.6%

BN

9.1%

41.6%

26.0%

23.4%

KH

23.3%

68.3%

7.4%

1.1%

ID

6.4%

69.8%

19.2%

4.5%

LA

26.9%

65.0%

6.9%

1.3%

MY

16.0%

51.6%

23.6%

8.9%

MM

56.1%

19.6%

18.0%

6.3%

PH

12.1%

70.2%

14.9%

2.8%

SG

21.6%

34.8%

32.6%

11.0%

TH

12.9%

61.2%

15.4%

10.4%

VN

11.5%

70.0%

14.5%

4.0%

8SURVEYREPORT

AFFILIATION

Thelargestaffiliationgroupisfromtheprivatesector(33.7%),followedbygovernment(24.5%),andacademia,think-tanksorresearchinstitutions(23.6%).Civilsociety,non-governmentorganisations,ormedia

5.6%

23.6%

33.7%

12.7%

24.5%

waspresentedby12.7%ofrespondents.Thesmallestrepresentationcamefromrespondentsaffiliatedwithregionalorinternationalorganisations(5.6%).

Academia,Think-Tanks,orResearchInstitutionsCivilSociety,Non-GovernmentOrganisations,

orMedia

Government

PrivateSector(BusinessorFinance)

RegionalorInternationalOrganisations

Q3Whatisyouraffiliation?

Country

Academia,

Think-Thanks,

orResearch

Institutions

CivilSociety,

Non-Government

Organisations,

orMedia

Government

PrivateSector

(Business

orFinance)

RegionalorInternationalOrganisations

ASEAN

23.6%

12.7%

24.5%

33.7%

5.6%

BN

27.3%

11.7%

32.5%

22.1%

6.5%

KH

32.8%

17.5%

15.9%

28.6%

5.3%

ID

30.2%

17.0%

26.0%

21.5%

5.3%

LA

16.3%

9.4%

28.1%

44.4%

1.9%

MY

22.2%

10.7%

29.8%

31.6%

5.8%

MM

5.8%

13.2%

19.0%

58.7%

3.2%

PH

25.1%

14.0%

30.7%

26.0%

4.2%

SG

24.2%

12.5%

23.8%

29.3%

10.3%

TH

24.4%

4.5%

28.9%

35.8%

6.5%

VN

25.5%

14.5%

13.5%

41.5%

5.0%

THESTATEOFSOUTHEASTASIA:20249

AGE

Therewasminimalchangeintermsofagedistributionwiththelargestagegroupbeingthe22-35yearsold(43.3%).Thisisfollowedbythe36-45yearsoldgroup(24.5%).ThesetwogroupsarethemosteconomicallyproductiveandintellectuallyengagedagegroupsinSoutheastAsia.

6.2%

8.1%

17.9%

43.3%

24.5%

18-2146-60

36-45

22-35

Above60

Thethirdlargestgroupisagedbetween46-60yearsold(17.9%),followedbythoseagedabove60yearsold(8.1%)andlastly,thosebetween18to21yearsold(6.2%).

Q4Whichagegroupdoyoubelongto?

Country

18-21

22-35

36-45

46-60

Above60

ASEAN

6.2%

43.3%

24.5%

17.9%

8.1%

BN

6.5%

42.9%

32.5%

16.9%

1.3%

KH

20.1%

59.3%

17.5%

2.1%

1.1%

ID

2.6%

50.2%

23.4%

18.1%

5.7%

LA

10.6%

60.6%

21.3%

6.9%

0.6%

MY

2.7%

38.7%

24.0%

21.8%

12.9%

MM

5.3%

44.4%

27.5%

14.8%

7.9%

PH

7.4%

37.7%

20.9%

21.4%

12.6%

SG

3.7%

23.8%

20.1%

33.3%

19.0%

TH

1.0%

38.3%

32.3%

22.9%

5.5%

VN

6.5%

47.5%

31.5%

10.5%

4.0%

10SURVEYREPORT

SECTIONII

RegionalOutlookandViewsonInternationalDevelopments

11-32

Thissectionexaminesthekeychallengesandmainpreoccupations.Weightingisappliedfromthissectiononwards.

THESTATEOFSOUTHEASTASIA:202411

TOPTHREECHALLENGESFACINGSOUTHEASTASIA

Theregioncontinuestoexpressfearsofbleakeconomicprospectswiththeglobaleconomyinthestatethatitis.AmajorityofSoutheastAsians(57.7%)fearunemploymentandeconomicrecession.TheIsrael-HamasconflictinOctober2023andthesubsequentHouthiattacksintheRedSeamaybegeographicallyfarawaybuttheimpactsarefeltthroughsupplychaindisruptionswhichmaydirectlyimpactenergyandfoodprices.China’seconomicslow-downmayhavealsodrivensuchconcerns.Atthecountrylevel,Brunei(77.9%),Cambodia(68.3%),andVietnam(67.5%)areparticularlyconcerned.Singaporeisanoutlierwithonly27.8%oftherespondentsexpressingsuchfears.

Thesecond-rankedchallengeismorefrequentandintenseweathereventsasexpressedby53.4%ofSoutheastAsians.Vietnamrespondents(75.0%)overtookthePhilippinesasthecountrymostconcernedwithclimatechange.Vietnamexperiencedover1,100climatedisasterslastyearwithrecord-breakingtemperaturesexceeding44degreesCelsius.ClimatechangetakesthetopspotinSingapore(64.8%),Indonesia(58.9%),andThailand(55.7%).

2024

53.4%

47.0%ofregionalrespondentspickedintensifyingeconomictensionsbetweenmajorpowersastheirthird-rankedchallenge.ThisisespeciallypertinentforLaos(70.0%)whopickedthisastheirtop-rankedconcern,andCambodiawhosetwotopchallengesaretied(68.3%).

Wideningsocio-economicgapsandrisingincomedisparityarerankedfourth(44.4%)followedbyincreasedmilitarytensionsarisingfrompotentialflashpointsintheSouthChinaSea,TaiwanStrait,andKoreanPeninsulainfifthplace.ForthePhilippines(64.7%),increasedmilitarytensionsarisingfrompotentialflashpointsintheSouthChinaSeaovertookclimatechangeasitstopconcernthisyear.Withincomeinequalitybecomingmoreacutepost-Covid,itisnosurprisethatcountrieslikeThailand(53.7%)rankedrisingincomedisparityasitssecond-rankedconcernasithasoneofthehighestincomeinequalityintheworld,withtherichest10%ofThaisearningoverhalfofthetotalnationalincomewhilethebottomhalfofthepopulationearnsabout10%oftotalincome.

2023

59.5%

Atthecountrylevel,Myanmarcontinuestofeelmostacutelytheimpactsofitsdomesticpoliticalinstabilityat70.9%.

2024

57.7%

2023

57.1%

Unemploymentandeconomicrecession

2024

47.0%

Intensifying

economic

tensions

betweenmajor

powers

12SURVEYREPORT

41.9%

Widening

socio-

economic

gapsand

risingincome

disparity

Climatechangeandmoreextremeweatherevents

Increased

military

tensions

arisingfrom

potential

flashpoints

$

2023

2024

Country

BNKHID

LAMYMMPHSGTHVN

ASEAN

47.0%

57.7%

36.8%

10.0%

38.0%

53.4%

44.4%

12.8%

2023

Country

ASEAN

BNKHID

LAMYMMPHSGTHVN

36.2%

59.5%

35.6%

11.3%

41.9%

57.1%

41.9%

16.5%

Q5Whatarethetop3challengesfacingSoutheastAsia?(Check3responses)

Intensifying

economic

tensions

between

major

powers

Unemployment

andeconomic

recession

Domesticpoliticalinstability(includingethnicand religioustensions)

Terrorism

and

extremism

Increased

military

tensionsarising

frompotential

flashpoints(i.e.

SouthChina

Sea,Taiwan

Strait,Korean

Peninsula)

Climate

changeand

moreextreme

weatherevents

(droughts,

floods,

cyclones,rising

sealevels,etc.)

Widening

socio-

economic

gapsand

risingincome

inequality

Deteriorating

humanrights

conditions

36.4%

77.9%

26.0%

3.9%

28.6%

64.9%

54.5%

7.8%

68.3%

68.3%

25.4%

7.4%

28.0%

43.4%

35.4%

23.8%

32.5%

57.4%

42.3%

10.9%

36.6%

58.9%

47.9%

13.6%

70.0%

66.9%

35.6%

9.4%

20.0%

35.6%

52.5%

10.0%

39.6%

52.9%

51.1%

7.6%

40.4%

49.8%

48.9%

9.8%

37.0%

51.3%

70.9%

18.5%

31.7%

23.8%

31.7%

34.9%

46.0%

57.7%

14.9%

11.2%

64.7%

61.9%

34.4%

9.3%

52.7%

27.8%

36.3%

15.8%

57.5%

64.8%

42.5%

2.6%

52.7%

49.3%

44.3%

9.5%

21.4%

55.7%

53.7%

13.4%

34.5%

67.5%

21.0%

5.5%

51.5%

75.0%

42.0%

3.0%

US-Chinadecoupling

Unemployment

andeconomic

recession

Domesticpoliticalinstability(includingethnicand religioustensions)

Terrorism

and

extremism

Increased

military

tensionsarising

frompotential

flashpoints(i.e.

SouthChina

Sea,Taiwan

Strait,Korean

Peninsula)

Climate

changeand

moreextreme

weatherevents

(droughts,

floods,

cyclones,rising

sealevels,etc.)

Widening

socio-

economic

gapsand

risingincome

inequality

Deteriorating

humanrights

conditions

23.3%

49.2%

33.3%

10.8%

75.0%

74.2%

25.8%

8.3%

38.8%

69.4%

14.9%

0.7%

41.0%

52.2%

61.9%

20.9%

30.6%

70.2%

38.0%

15.7%

31.4%

60.3%

36.4%

17.4%

47.7%

61.7%

47.7%

11.2%

38.3%

50.5%

19.6%

23.4%

35.5%

63.7%

50.8%

4.8%

25.8%

61.3%

47.6%

10.5%

20.9%

59.1%

51.3%

41.7%

18.3%

29.6%

47.0%

32.2%

25.3%

60.6%

20.2%

12.1%

50.5%

76.8%

38.4%

16.2%

58.2%

45.2%

31.7%

4.8%

45.2%

60.1%

49.0%

5.8%

38.2%

62.5%

37.5%

9.7%

27.8%

41.7%

59.0%

23.6%

44.1%

53.7%

30.1%

1.5%

64.7%

64.7%

34.6%

6.6%

THESTATEOFSOUTHEASTASIA:202413

2023

73.0%

TOPTHREECONCERNSABOUTASEAN

Theregioncontinuestobeconcernedabouta“slowandineffective”ASEANthatisunabletocopewithfluidpoliticalandeconomicdevelopments,albeitdroppingfrom82.6%lastyearto77.0%thisyear.ThesensethatASEANisalwayscaughtonitsbackfootandthusrisksirrelevanceintheinternationalorderisfeltmostacutelybyfivecountriesinASEAN:Indonesia(86.4%),Myanmar(84.1%),Brunei(81.8%),Malaysia(81.3%),andThailand(76.6%).

ThesecondtopconcernisthefearofASEANbecominganarenaofmajorpowercompetitionandthatitsmemberstatesmaybecomemajorpowerproxiesbyaverytightmarginof76.4%ofregionalrespondents.TheotherfiveASEANmemberstates–Vietnam(84.5%),thePhilippines(83.7%),Cambodia(82.0%),Singapore(81.7%),andLaos(76.3%)–chosethisastheirtopconcernforASEAN.Interestingly,Laosbeingthisyear’sASEANChairmayfeeltheneedtodefendagainstsuchpressuresjumpingdrasticallyfrom40.2%in2023to76.3%in2024.

Withasenseofeconomicmalaisestillprevalentintheregion,59.9%oftherespondentsfearthatASEANmaynotbeabletoreturntoitspre-pandemiceconomicgrowth.Thisisanincreasefrom37.2%lastyear.ThismayposechallengestoASEANachievingthestatusoftheworld’s4thlargesteconomyby2030.

PerceptionsofASEANdisunitywasnotasbadthisyear,droppingfrom60.7%in2023to51.6%asthegroupingmanagedtodisplayafa?adeofunityoverMyanmar,Russia-Ukraine,andtheIsrael-Hamasconflict.Successiveleaders’statementsappearcognisantofsomedifferencesbutingeneral,wereabletolandinacomfortablezoneofcallingforadherencetointernationallaw.

2023

82.6%

FearsofASEANelitismrankedlast,droppingfrom46.6%in2023to35.1%asothermoreimportantissuesthreateningASEAN’ssurvivaltakecentrestage.

2024

77.0%

ASEANisslowandineffective,

2024

76.4%

2023

2024

59.9%

ASEANisbecominganarena

60.7%

ofmajorpowercompetition

anditsmemberstates

maybecomemajor

ASEANisunable

toreturnto

pre-pandemic

economic

growth

ASEANisbecomingincreasingly disunited

powerproxies

andthuscannotcope

withfluidpoliticalandeconomicdevelopments,becomingirrelevantinthe

newworldorder

14SURVEYREPORT

Q6Whatareyourtop3concernsaboutASEAN?(Check3responses)

2024

Country

ASEAN

BNKHID

LAMYMMPHSGTHVN

ASEANisslowand

ineffective,andthuscannot

copewithfluidpoliticaland

economicdevelopments,

becomingirrelevantinthe

newworldorder

59.9%

51.6%

35.1%

77.0%

76.4%

42.9%76.7%53.2%71.9%60.0%41.3%60.9%55.7%64.2%72.5%

ASEANisbecoming

anarenaofmajor

powercompetition

anditsmember

statesmaybecome

majorpowerproxies

44.2%33.9%38.9%51.3%54.2%61.4%54.0%67.4%61.7%49.5%

55.8%29.1%50.9%39.4%34.7%44.4%34.0%20.9%26.4%15.0%

75.3%82.0%70.6%76.3%69.8%68.8%83.7%81.7%71.1%84.5%

81.8%78.3%86.4%61.3%81.3%84.1%67.4%74.4%76.6%78.5%

ASEANiselitist

anddisconnected

fromordinary

people

ASEANisunable

toreturnto

pre-pandemic

economicgrowth

ASEANisbecomingincreasingly

disunited

2023

Country

ASEAN

BNKHID

LAMYMMPHSGTHVN

ASEANisbecoming

anarenaofmajor

powercompetition

anditsmember

statesmaybecome

majorpowerproxies

ASEANisslowand

ASEANisbecomingincreasingly disunited

ASEANiselitist

anddisconnected

fromordinary

people

ASEANisunable

torecoverfrom

thepandemic

ineffective,andthuscannot

copewithfluidpoliticaland

economicdevelopments,

becomingirrelevantinthe

newworldorder

60.7%

42.5%

59.7%

54.5%

63.6%

60.5%

72.2%

57.6%

70.2%

56.9%

69.1%

37.2%

51.7%

40.3%

25.6%

59.8%

33.1%

35.7%

41.4%

25.0%

34.7%

24.3%

46.6%

37.5%

44.8%

59.5%

66.4%

53.2%

59.1%

39.4%

31.7%

51.4%

22.8%

73.0%

80.0%

84.3%

73.6%

40.2%

72.6%

55.7%

76.8%

83.2%

72.9%

90.4%

82.6%

88.3%

70.9%

86.8%

70.1%

80.6%

77.4%

84.8%

89.9%

84.0%

93.4%

THESTATEOFSOUTHEASTASIA:202415

TOPTHREEGEOPOLITICALCONCERNS

TheOctober7attacksbyHamasonIsraeliciviliansandtheensuinghumanitariancrisisinGazaoccupiestheregion’smindshare(46.5%).Thesecond-rankedconcernisaggressivebehaviourintheSouthChinaSea(39.9%),followedbyconcernsoverthetwo-yearlongRussia-Ukrainewarandglobalscamoperations(39.4%)tiedatthirdplace.Internationaldrugsmugglingoperationscameinataclosefourthplace(37.2%)followedbyconcernsoverthechangeofpoliticalleadershipintheregion(33.9%).ImplicationsarisingfromtheJanuary2024Taiwanelectionsrankedlastinthelistofgeopoliticalconcernsat7.6%,rightaftertheworriesovertheDPRK’scontinuedballistictests(10.6%).

Atthecountrylevel,itisnosurprisethattheMuslim-majoritycountriesinSoutheastAsiarankedtheIsrael-Hamasconflictastheirtopgeopoliticalconcern–Malaysia(83.1%),Brunei(79.2%),andIndonesia(74.7%).Singapo